MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 01/20/2015
Mike Hall
217-717-4394
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
**** 6-10 Day Forecast: Normal Temps. Normal to Below Precip East, Normal to Above West.
**** Grain markets lower this morning. Pressure coming from rains being forecast for Brazil where crop
conditions for the most part are good, worries over more China Soybean cancellations, weaker Crude
prices and Fund liquidation of longs.
**** Crude Oil lower $48.05 off $1.08
**** Gold higher$1286.50 up $9.60
**** The Dollar is trading higher vs. most major currencies this morning.
**** World stocks, Japan up 2.0% China up 1.8% Europe up 0.8% Dow futures up 75 points.
**** Dalian Exchange, Soybean and Soybean meal futures lower, Corn higher.
**** Brazil analyst Ag Rural estimated Brazil Soybean harvest 1% complete as of Friday.
This compares to 1% a year ago and the five year average of 1%. The Matto Grosso region is reported
4.1% complete with yields reportedly runni8ng about 10% higher than a year ago.
**** The USADA reported Friday that China had cancelled 285,000 mt. of U.S. Soybeans. Several traders
think there will be more cancellations in the coming weeks.
**** Russian grain exports continue to be in State of flux. Yesterday a Russian senior minister in relation
to the recent export curbs said “Measures have been taken. If that is not enough, there are more radical
proposals.”
**** The Commitment of Traders report with Options as of January 13 shows Index Funds positions as:
Corn Long 225,371 off 17,232 Soybeans Long 87,372 up 406 Wheat Long 98,300 off 7,183
Soybean Meal Long 40,372 up 951 Soybean Oil Long 53,673 off 4,373
Managed Money: Corn Long 204,611 off 22,024 Soybeans Long 14,520 off 28,083
Wheat Long 9,430 off 4,712 Soybean Meal Long 31,450 off 15,995 Oil Long 49,170 up 10,875
Feature of the week would be Managed Money aggressively liquidating longs in Corn, Soybeans and Meal.
**** Friday Funds, Bought 9,000 Corn, 2,000 Oil. Sold 2,000 Wheat. Even Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
**** CIF Corn weaker Friday but FOB Gulf value offers were up 10 cents for Feb/Mar at +74.
**** Cash Soybean Meal continued to weaken in the east with many markets off $5.00
**************************** Cash Markets **************************************
CIF Corn steady off 2.
Jan. +65 to +68, Feb. +64 to +67, Mar. +61to +64,
AM +56 to +58 , AMJJ +53 to +57
River House bids: STL. unch at +12 Havana up 2 -15
NS rail cent IL. Jan -11 Feb. -10
PNW Corn trains: Jan. +90 Feb. +90 Mar. +94
PNW Bean Trains: Jan. +100 Feb. +87
****CIF Soybeans steady off 4.
Jan. +79 to +83, Feb. +73 to +80, Mar. +67 to +75
AM +57 to +70, Oct. +75 to +80
River house bids : STL off 3 at +22 Havana unch -2
Processor bids. Decatur at +10 Bloomington Opt. Gibson City +5.
**** CIF SR Wheat steady. Jan. +85 to +100 Feb. +85 to +100 Mar. +85 to +100
*** Barge freight: STL 375- 400 IL. River 500 – 525 Ohio 390 – 400
Northeast OH
Central IN
Central IA
South Central MN
Northeast SD
Northeast IL
Today
-6
-10
-20
-24
-45
-4
Yesterday
-6
-15
-20
-24
-50
-40
Last Week
-16
-17
-25
-24
-52
-60
MLH DAILY UPDATE
DAILY UPDATE 01/20/2015
_______________________________________________________________
Bid
Ask ICG Soybeans
Bid Ask Corn Delv. Chicago
ICG Corn
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
A/M
-10
-9
-7
-10
Jan.
-2
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
+15
+13
13
12
(*denotes traded)
Rail bids supplied by Laclede Trading, Carmel, IN 317-581-8916
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CORN BASIS
CIF
DECATUR
S TL
CHICAGO
TOLEDO
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
+65
+65
+54
+75
+54
SOYBEAN BASIS
Today
Yesterday
Last Wk.
Last Yr.
5 Year Average
CIF
+79
+84
+80
+125
+77 1/2
+2
+2
Opt
+6
+8
+12
+12
+9
19
+3
DECATUR
+10
+10
+8
+30
+17
Opt.
Opt
Opt
+4
- 1/2
S TL
CHICAGO
+22
+25
+33
+60
+29
-18
-18
0
-13
-12
TOLEDO
Opt.
Opt.
Opt.
+10
-3
TODAY
YESTERDAY
LAST WEEK
375%
500%
375%
350%
485%
380%
325%
450%
400%
-18
-18
-20
+12
-6
Barge Freight
STL
IL River
Ohio
________________________________________________SPREAD DATA______________________________________________
Full Carry % Full Carry Spread
0.2311 60.57%
CH/CN
0.1168 57.80%
CK/CN
0.1745 32.96%
CN/CU
0.3479 39.53%
CN/CZ
0.1423 38.65%
SH/SK
0.2891 -73.51%
SN/SX
0.1419 -3.52%
SK/SN
0.1416 40.60%
SX/SF
0.1225 16.32% WH/WK
Close
-14.00
-6.75
-5.75
-13.75
-5.50
21.25
0.50
-5.75
-2.00
Yest. Last Week
-13.50 -14.75
-6.25 -6.75
-6.00 -3.75
-14.00 -9.25
-6.00 -5.75
20.25 19.00
0.50
-5.00
-5.50
-3.00 -4.50
Last Yr.
-14.50
-6.75
-4.75
-10.50
19.25
157.00
15.25
-5.25
-7.00
Pit Volume
20278
9526
2128
5266
3594
6334
1244
2
493
Electronic Volume
11641
11
1882
4155
10202
4806
3328
106
7917
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