Guy O’Leary, Technical Strategy
go’[email protected]
November 12th , 2014
Multi-Asset Playbook
Conviction
•
Sell Strength European Equities.
•
Neutral US equities, prefer Japanese equities.
•
Lower government bond yields in the US, Europe and UK.
•
Positive US$.
•
Broadly negative commodities.
Our 30th October European Equity Market Playbook highlighted the ‘sell strength
mode’ and ‘pattern reversals’ that both core and peripheral indices had set-up
during October along with potential sector divergences. We maintain this
sell-strength recommendation across European equity indices, with evidence
of momentum divergence coupled with bearish reversal patterns and strong
historical resistance levels decreasing the probability of higher prices from current
levels. We rate US indices as neutral due to a stronger relative momentum
dynamic and price pattern set-up. We prefer Japanese equities at this point given
the relatively strong momentum setup and break to the topside of longer term
resistance.
The US 10 year yield trades at the upper boundary of a longer term downward
sloping channel with continued bearish price action suggesting a higher
probability that yields move lower. Strong resistance remains in place for
German and Italian 10 year yields while the UK 10 year yield continues to trade
with a bearish price sequence.
We remain bullish on the US$ from current levels and maintain our 1.2154 target
for the EU€/US$ while now targeting 123.14 on the US$/JPY post the break
above 112.56. We reinstate our negative rating on the GB£/US$ cross as negative
momentum and a negative price series increase the probability of further US$
outperformance. We remain neutral on the EU€/GB£ as the cross remains
marginally above historical support at 0.7755.
We maintain a broadly bearish outlook on commodity markets targeting $69.59
on Brent Crude and significant further downside potential for Gold.
See page 41 for important disclosures
PAGE 1
CANTOR FITZGERALD
S&P500 Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
77 =
15 / 90
Weekly
63 25 / 79
Daily
72 +
26 / 78
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
+
NO
35
32.9
60.0 +
NEGATIVE =
NEGATIVE
18
7.0
3.2 +
NO
+
NO
24
3.4
6.3 +
S&P500 Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 2
CANTOR FITZGERALD
S&P500 Daily Chart (Feb 2013 to present day)
S&P500 Monthly Chart (Jan 2000 to present day)
PAGE 3
CANTOR FITZGERALD
DOW30 Daily Chart (Nov 2013 to present day)
DOW30 Weekly Chart (Jan 2009 to present day)
PAGE 4
CANTOR FITZGERALD
NASDAQ100 Daily Chart (Nov 2013 to present day)
NASDAQ100 Weekly Chart (Jan 2000 to present day)
PAGE 5
CANTOR FITZGERALD
RUSSELL2000 Daily Chart (Aug 2013 to present day)
RUSSELL2000 Momentum Dynamic (Aug 2013 to present day)
PAGE 6
CANTOR FITZGERALD
STOXX600 Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
64 14 / 85
Monthly
Weekly
52 19 / 75
Daily
61 +
16 / 77
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
NO
16
16.6
N/A +
NEGATIVE NEGATIVE
16
0
16.8 NO
+
NO
19
0
0+
STOXX600 Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 7
CANTOR FITZGERALD
STOXX600 Daily Chart (Aug 2013 to present day)
STOXX600 Weekly Chart (Jun 2006 to present day)
PAGE 8
CANTOR FITZGERALD
DAX Daily Chart (Aug 2013 to present day)
DAX Weekly Chart (Jan 2009 to present day)
PAGE 9
CANTOR FITZGERALD
CAC Daily Chart (Aug 2012 to present day)
CAC Weekly Chart (Jan 2010 to present day)
PAGE 10
CANTOR FITZGERALD
IBEX Daily Chart (Jan 2013 to present day)
IBEX Daily Chart (Jan 2010 to present day)
PAGE 11
CANTOR FITZGERALD
MIB Daily Chart (Jan 2014 to present day)
MIB Daily Chart (Aug 2013 to present day)
PAGE 12
CANTOR FITZGERALD
FTSE100 Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
53 20 / 91
Monthly
49 26 / 76
Weekly
Daily
64 +
18 / 76
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
Divergence
present
NEGATIVE
NEGATIVE
NO
+-20,
Divergence signal
Dist
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
13
8.1
19.1 +
NEGATIVE
20
-1.1
7.8 +
NO
27
0
-1.2 +
FTSE100 Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 13
CANTOR FITZGERALD
FTSE100 Daily Chart (Jan 2014 to present day)
FTSE100 Monthly Chart (Nov 1999 to present day)
PAGE 14
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Nikkei225 Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
76 19 / 86
66 +
30 / 91
Weekly
Daily
73 +
23 / 81
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
Divergence
present
NEGATIVE
NEGATIVE
NEGATIVE
+-20,
Divergence signal
Dist
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
=
NO
18
45.8
35 +
+
NEGATIVE
19
12.4
45.9 +
+
NO
31
8.4
13.3 +
Nikkei 225 Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 15
CANTOR FITZGERALD
NIKKEI225 Weekly Chart (Jan 2010 to present day)
NIKKEI225 Monthly Chart (Jan 1995 to present day)
PAGE 16
CANTOR FITZGERALD
AAXJ Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
55 +
34 / 67
Monthly
49 27 / 76
Weekly
Daily
56 +
22 / 78
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
Divergence
present
NO
NO
NO
+-20,
Divergence signal
Dist
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
=
NO
18
6.5
N/A NO
22
2.1
7.3 =
NO
17
0
1.4 +
AAXJ Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 17
CANTOR FITZGERALD
AAXJ Daily Chart (Jan 2011 to present day)
AAXJ Weekly Chart (Jan 2011 to present day)
PAGE 18
CANTOR FITZGERALD
GMM Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
53 +
29 / 69
Monthly
47 23 / 75
Weekly
Daily
50 +
24 / 75
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
Divergence
present
NO
NO
NO
+-20,
Divergence signal
Dist
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
+
NO
15
0.0
N/A +
NO
20
2.0
2.0 +
NO
20
-1.4
0.9 +
GMM Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 19
CANTOR FITZGERALD
GMM Daily Chart (Jul 2013 to present day)
GMM Weekly Chart (Jan 2011 to present day)
PAGE 20
CANTOR FITZGERALD
US 10 year yield Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
46 21 / 74
Weekly
42 =
18 / 80
49 +
16 / 77
Daily
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
NO
19
2.5 41.59 NO
=
NO
24
11.2
1.7 NO
+
NO
23
-3.5
-9.4 +
US 10 year yield Momentum Dynamic (Mar 2008 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2012 to present day)
PAGE 21
CANTOR FITZGERALD
US 10 year yield Monthly Chart (Jan 1994 to present day)
US 10 year yield Weekly Chart (Jan 2008 to present day)
PAGE 22
CANTOR FITZGERALD
German 10 year yield Daily Chart (Jun 2013 to present day)
Italian 10 year yield Daily Chart (Jun 2013 to present day)
PAGE 23
CANTOR FITZGERALD
UK 10 year yield Daily Chart (Sept 2013 to present day)
PAGE 24
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Brent Crude Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
27 26 / 87
20 16 / 88
Weekly
Daily
40 +
10 / 81
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
Divergence
present
NO
NO
NO
+-20,
Divergence signal
Dist
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
11.6
-27
35.8 NO
46
-23.8 -29.1 +
NO
57
-8.6 -23.1 -
Brent Crude Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 25
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Brent Crude Daily Chart (Oct 2013 to present day)
Brent Crude Weekly Chart (July 2008 to present day)
PAGE 26
CANTOR FITZGERALD
WTI Weekly Chart (Jun 2008 to present day)
WTI Momentum Dynamic (June 2008 to present day)
PAGE 27
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Gold Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
35 +
23 / 88
Weekly
30 17 / 86
37 16 / 80
Daily
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
=
NO
26
26
52 NO
NO
23
-8.7 -21.4 NO
NO
27
-4.2
-8.6 -
Gold Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 28
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Gold Weekly Chart (June 2008 to present day)
Gold Daily Chart (July 2013 to present day)
PAGE 29
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Copper Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
Monthly
41 =
24 / 94
Weekly
44 22 / 74
51 =
17 / 78
Daily
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
=
NO
22
-14.5
38.8 +
=
+
18.5
-3.2 -13.7 NO
=
NO
13
0
-2.2 +
Copper Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
PAGE 30
CANTOR FITZGERALD
HG Copper Daily Chart (July 2013 to present day)
HG Copper Weekly Chart (Jan 2009 to present day)
PAGE 31
CANTOR FITZGERALD
US$ Index Market Rating
RSI
RSI
RSI
Relative
values OB/
+-50 Trend OS
72 +
17 / 77
Monthly
Weekly
76 +
25 / 91
Daily
64 +
25 / 87
RSI
MACD
MACD
ADX
Moving average
Linear regression
+-20,
Divergence
Divergence signal
Dist
present
Reading present
lines Dist from 50MA 200MA Price slope
NO
+
NO
18
9.3
-2.7 +
+
NO
41
7.1
9.2 +
+
NO
32
2.4
7.1 +
US$ Index Momentum Dynamic (Jan 2010 to present day)
ATR%20D Volatility (Oct 2013 to present day)
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
PAGE 32
CANTOR FITZGERALD
US$ Index Weekly Chart (Jan 2009 to present day)
US$ Index Monthly Chart (Jan 2000 to present day)
PAGE 33
CANTOR FITZGERALD
€/$ Daily Chart (Nov 2013 to present day)
€/$ Weekly Chart (Jan 2011 to present day)
PAGE 34
CANTOR FITZGERALD
€/£ Daily Chart (July 2013 to present day)
€/£ Weekly Chart (Jun 2008 to present day)
PAGE 35
CANTOR FITZGERALD
€/CHF Daily Chart (Mar 2013 to present day)
€/CHF Weekly Chart (Jan 2010 to present day)
PAGE 36
CANTOR FITZGERALD
€/JPY Daily Chart (Oct 2013 to present day)
€/JPY Weekly Chart (Jun 2008 to present day)
PAGE 37
CANTOR FITZGERALD
£/$ Daily Chart (Aug 2013 to present day)
£/$ Weekly Chart (Jan 2010 to present day)
PAGE 38
CANTOR FITZGERALD
$/JPY Daily Chart (July 2013 to present day)
$/JPY Weekly Chart (Jan 1995 to present day)
PAGE 39
CANTOR FITZGERALD
Market Strategy Team
Peter Cecchini, MD, Chief Market Strategist
Aaron Ipsa, Senior Strategist and Trader
Magdy El Mihdawy, Analyst and Strategy
Guy O’Leary, Technical Strategy
Brian Hennen, Sales and Strategy
Kal Major, Sales and Strategy
Christopher Greenwell, Sales and Trading
Liam Boggan, Head of Institutional Equity Sales (Ireland)
Ben Taylor, MD, Head Trader
Eric Wenzel, Trading
Davis Smanik, Trader
PAGE 40
CANTOR FITZGERALD
CURRENCY & COMMODITY PLAYBOOK
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PAGE 41
CANTOR FITZGERALD