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Argus Asia-Pacific Products
Prices and analysis
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Overview
prices At glance
Product prices fall on lower crude values. Jet fuel term
negotiations are ongoing in the Mideast Gulf. More gasoil
headed from India to Brazil. An influx of Colombian and US
fuel oil likely lifted demand for low-density blendstocks.
Singapore gasoline 92R vs naphtha swaps
20
€/t $/t
Naphtha swap month 1 = 0
18
Singapore
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Low
High
Low
High
±
97R gasoline
-
-
113.35
113.55
-2.45
95R gasoline
+0.60
+0.80
112.20
112.40
-2.45
92R gasoline
+0.40
+0.60
108.95
109.15
-2.00
Naphtha
+1.70
+1.90
102.80
102.95
-1.18
-2.40
Jet-kerosine
+0.65
+0.85
121.70
121.90
Gasoil 0.5%
-0.25
-0.05
120.80
121.00
-2.55
Gasoil 0.25%
+0.65
+0.85
121.70
121.90
-2.55
16
Gasoil 0.05%
+1.20
+1.40
122.25
122.45
-2.55
14
Gasoil 0.005%
+2.45
+2.65
123.50
123.70
-2.50
12
hhh
10
8
Gasoil 0.001%
+2.90
+3.10
123.95
124.15
-2.50
HSFO 180cst $/t
+5.00
+6.00
617.25
618.25
-0.50
HSFO 380cst $/t
+5.00
+6.00
609.00
610.00
-0.50
South Korea
6
4
2 Aug 13
4 Sep 13
3 Oct 13
Fuel oil crack spreads -8
4 Nov 13
$/bl
Dubai crude = 0
Low
High
-10
-11
-12
8 Oct 13
23 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
contents
Prices at a glance, Overview
1
Gasoline commentary and prices2
Naphtha commentary and prices3
Jet-kerosine commentary and prices4
Gasoil commentary and prices 5
Fuel oil and LSWR commentary and prices
6
China fuel oil, bunkers and marine fuels
8
Freight rates 9
Crack spreads and deals done
10
Tenders, methodology and announcements
11
Market news
12
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
±
Jet-kerosine
+0.30
+0.50
121.35
121.55
-2.45
Gasoil 0.05%
+0.00
+0.20
121.05
121.25
-2.55
Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm)
+0.95
+1.15
122.00
122.20
-2.55
-
-
628.25
629.25
-0.50
Diff to Mopag
Low
High
Low
High
HSFO 180cst $/t
Mideast Gulf
-9
-13
24 Sep 13
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Low
High
$/bl
±
95R gasoline
+0.80
+1.00
110.10
110.30
-2.45
92R gasoline
+0.50
+0.70
106.85
107.05
-2.00
Naphtha LR1 $/t
+27.00
+29.00
896.05
905.55
-10.38
Naphtha LR2 $/t
-
-
899.30
908.80
-10.38
Jet-kerosine
+1.70
+1.90
119.25
119.45
-2.40
Gasoil 0.2%
+2.30
+2.50
119.05
119.25
-2.55
Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm)
+2.90
+3.10
119.65
119.85
-2.55
Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm)
+3.40
+3.60
120.15
120.35
-2.55
HSFO 180cst $/t
-
-
601.85
602.85
-0.05
HSFO 380cst $/t
+6.50
+8.50
593.60
594.60
-0.05
Diff to Mopj
Low
High
Low
High
±
927.00
123.95
936.50
124.15
-10.38
-2.40
Japan
Naphtha $/t
Jet-kerosine
$/bl
+13.00
-
+15.00
-
Gasoil 0.005%
-
-
124.10
124.30
-2.55
HSFO 180cst $/t
-
-
628.20
629.20
-0.50
Diff to Pertamina
Low
High
Low
High
±
108.73
108.93
+0.00
Indonesia
LSWR V-1250
$/bl
+15.90
+16.10
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
gasoline
Singapore gasoline prices fell along with lower crude values.
Vietnam’s Petrolimex bought a small spot cargo.
There were two deals concluded during afternoon
online trading in Singapore. Vitol sold a 92R cargo loading
on 30 November-4 December at $108.90/bl to Unipec, while
PetroChina sold a 95R cargo for 19-23 November loading at
$112.40/bl to Glencore.
The 92R gasoline’s margin relative to Brent crude rose
to its highest level in a week at $2.60/bl, up from $1.90/bl
during the previous session. But the reforming spread, or
the product’s value over naphtha, weakened for the fifth
successive session to close $0.80/bl lower at $6.20/bl on
Monday.
Vietnam provided scant demand support with Petrolimex buying just 5,000t (42,000 bl) of 95R gasoline loading
over 20-28 November from Singapore at a premium around
$0.70/bl to Mops. The size of the cargo suggests that it will
be re-exported to neighbouring Cambodia instead of being
consumed domestically. Petrolimex has otherwise yet to
show any buying interest for spot supplies despite not having bought third-quarter cargoes.
Pakistan shipped in 164,410t of gasoline during October,
down by 14pc from a month earlier as demand weakened
due to an increase in retail prices and higher inventories.
Gasoline imports are expected to rebound in November, as
the start of winter will exacerbate shortages of compressed
natural gas, which is widely used as vehicle fuel in Pakistan.
The government will likely divert gas supplies to the domestic sector and industries.
Trading interest in the Singapore gasoline cash market
softened for the second successive month to 1.3mn bl in
October, falling from 1.6mn bl a month ago. 92R gasoline
accounted for slightly over half or 750,000 bl of total transactions, while 500,000 bl of the 95R grade and only one 97R
cargo changed hands. Sietco, a typical importer of highoctane gasoline, emerged as the largest seller of the 95R
and 97R grades with 350,000 bl sold.
Singapore naphtha and gasoline crack spreads 15
Naphtha
97R
95R
$/bl
Singapore
Low
Low
High
High
±
97R gasoline
-
-
113.35
113.55
-2.45
95R gasoline
+0.60
+0.80
112.20
112.40
-2.45
92R gasoline
+0.40
+0.60
108.95
109.15
-2.00
Mideast Gulf
$/bl
Diff to Mopag
Low
High
±
+1.00
110.10
110.30
-2.45
+0.70
106.85
107.05
-2.00
Low
High
95R gasoline
+0.80
92R gasoline
+0.50
Singapore reforming spread
$/bl
Today
Previous
±
97R gasoline
10.58
11.85
-1.27
95R gasoline
9.43
10.70
-1.27
92R gasoline
6.18
7.00
-0.82
Gasoline 91R NWE fob vs 92R Singapore
75
$/t
Gasoline 92R Singapore = 0
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
31 Jul 13
3 Sep 13
2 Oct 13
Gasoline 92R vs Singapore naphtha swaps
18
92R
$/bl
Diff to Mops
1 Nov 13
$/bl
Naphtha Singapore swap month 1 = 0
16
10
14
5
12
0
10
-5
8
-10
-15
27 Aug 13
18 Sep 13
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
10 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
6
2 Aug 13
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4 Sep 13
3 Oct 13
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Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
naphtha
Asia-Pacific naphtha prices fell for the first time in six sessions on the back of sharp crude losses. Naphtha buyers
resisted paying steep differentials for term cargoes even as
fundamentals firmed.
An active afternoon online trade session generated four
deals. Glencore sold a first-half January delivering cargo
at $936/t apiece to Itochu and Socar, while Sietco sold to
MRI Trading two first-half January/second-half January
timespreads at $8.50/t.
Naphtha’s crack spread for first-half January firmed up
for the fifth successive session to a more than eight-month
high at $138.15/t, up from $129.85/t. The value of cfr Japan
for second-half December over second-half January narrowed by $0.50/t to $16/t in backwardation on Monday.
Trading activity in northeast Asia was subdued at the
start of the week, but regional demand is expected to stay
strong, with importers to remain highly dependent on naphtha as cracking feedstock as economics to switch to LPG
were largely unviable.
Bahraini producer Bapco sold a 50,000t (445,000 bl)
B210 grade spot cargo for end-November loading from Sitra
likely at about low-$30s/t premium to Mopag, but this could
not be confirmed. It could have last sold an identical cargo
for 17-20 October lifting at a weaker differential at about
$27-28/t to Mopag. Term customers though were unwilling to lock in a year-long’s supplies at the steep premiums,
forcing Bapco to lower its offer for its B210 grade naphtha
lifting across January-December 2014 to $27.50/t above
Mopag, down from its initial indication at $30/t premium to
Mopag. Discussions are expected to continue into the week.
Regional supply tightened even as Mideast Gulf producers continue to sell into the market either through tenders
or via private negotiations, as arbitrage inflows were generally expected to decline during the final months of the year.
Japan naphtha vs Ice Brent 150
$/t
Singapore
Naphtha
Naphtha
+1.70
+1.90
Low
High
±
102.80
102.95
-1.18
$/t
Low
High
+13.00
+15.00
Low
High
±
927.00
936.50
-10.38
Mideast Gulf
$/t
Diff to Mopag
Low
High
±
Low
High
Naphtha LR1
+27.00
+29.00
896.05
905.55
-10.38
Naphtha LR2
-
-
899.30
908.80
-10.38
Japan open-specification naphtha forward prices
$/t
Low
High
16-31 Dec
943.00
944.00
-10.75
1-15 Jan
935.50
936.50
-10.50
16-31 Jan
927.00
928.00
-10.25
Low
High
Nov
102.05
102.25
-1.05
Dec
101.80
102.00
-1.00
Jan
101.55
101.75
-1.00
Singapore naphtha swaps
130
20
120
10
±
$/bl
Naphtha: Japan vs NWE
30
±
$/t
Naphtha NWE cif = 0
0
100
-10
90
-20
80
70
2 Aug 13
High
Diff to Mopj
140
110
Low
Japan
40
Ice Brent month 1 = 0
$/bl
Diff to Mops
4 Sep 13
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
3 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
-30
31 Jul 13
Page 3 of 13
3 Sep 13
2 Oct 13
1 Nov 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
jet-kerosine
Asia-Pacific jet-kerosine prices fell on crude and paper
losses. Term negotiations for 2014 jet fuel loading from the
Mideast Gulf were ongoing.
There were no physical deals done during afternoon
trading in Singapore. Gunvor posted the sole bid at Mops
+$0.75/bl for 250,000 bl loading 19-23 November.
Spot differentials of fob Korea cargoes for Decemberloading showed signs of strengthening compared to November-loading cargoes. First-half December loading cargoes
were heard offered at $0.50/bl premium over Singapore
spot quotes compared to earlier November-loading deal
done levels of $0.20/bl premium. Tighter supplies resulting
from lower refinery runs and a seasonal switch to kerosine
production to meet year-end heating needs helped to support the Asia jet fuel market.
Vietnam’s Petrolimex bought through a tender 5,000t
of kerosine for 20-28 November loading from Singapore at
$0.90/bl premium over Singapore spot quotes. Petrolimex
last bought a similar cargo for 1-10 August loading at around
Mops -$0.20/bl, fob Thailand basis. Such small shipments
are usually meant for re-export to Cambodia and the small
cargo size also meant that the buyer has to pay a higher
premium than for the more typical medium-range size
cargoes.
Term negotiations for 2014 term jet fuel loading from
the Mideast Gulf were ongoing. Bahrain’s Bapco is said to
be targeting levels similar to 2013’s term premium in the
low-$2s/bl. Buying ideas were heard at below $2/bl. Buyers cited new refining capacity coming up in the Mideast
Gulf next year as a factor weighing down on jet fuel term
premiums.
Jet fuel headed from the Mideast Gulf to northwest
Europe. A long range 2 size vessel was seen fixed to load
90,000t of jet fuel from the Mideast Gulf on 5 November to
head to Europe. Another tanker was booked to load 40,000t
of jet fuel from New-Mangalore in mid-November to head to
either the Mediterranean or northwest Europe.
Singapore jet-kerosine November swaps fell by $2.45/
bl to $121.30/bl. The November-December intermonth time
was stable at $0.70/bl in backwardation. The balanceNovember regrade fell to a $0.30/bl discount. Jet-kerosine’s
crack spread, or the product’s premium to Dubai crude, narrowed by around $0.45/bl to $17.26/bl.
Singapore
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Jet-kerosine
Low
High
+0.65
+0.85
Low
High
±
121.70
121.90
-2.40
South Korea
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Jet-kerosine
Low
High
+0.30
+0.50
Low
High
±
121.35
121.55
-2.45
Mideast Gulf
$/bl
Diff to Mopag
Jet-kerosine
Low
High
+1.70
+1.90
Low
High
±
119.25
119.45
-2.40
Low
High
123.95
124.15
Japan
$/bl
Jet-kerosine
Singapore jet-kerosine swaps
±
-2.40
$/bl
Low
High
Nov
121.20
121.40
-2.45
Dec
120.50
120.70
-2.45
Jan
120.10
120.30
-2.40
1Q14
119.70
119.90
-2.45
2Q14
118.45
118.65
-2.35
3Q14
117.75
117.95
-2.40
Singapore jet-kerosine regrade
0.80
±
$/bl
Gasoil swaps = 0
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
20 Sep 13
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Page 4 of 13
4 Oct 13
21 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
gasoil
Asia-Pacific gasoil prices fell on crude and paper losses.
Term negotiations for 2014 supplies loading from the Mideast Gulf were ongoing.
There were no physical deals done during afternoon
trading in Singapore. Vitol posted two offers for the 500ppm
grade, both at $1/bl premium over Singapore spot quotes
for 150,000 bl loading each on 20-24 November and 24-28
November.
Regional demand continued to support spot differentials
for the 500ppm sulphur grade at above $1/bl. Indonesia’s
Petral was due to conclude on Monday a tender to buy up
to 1.5mn bl of spot gasoil for November delivery into Tuban
and Balongan. The unusually strong demand was attributed
to refinery turnarounds and possibly lower exports from
South Korea where poor refinery margins had forced run
cuts. Petral also buys on a term basis around 2-3mn bl of
term gasoil. It had agreed to buy fourth quarter delivery
gasoil at premiums of $1.05/bl, $1.15/bl and $1.90/bl over
Singapore quotes for delivery into Balongan, Tuban and
Kotabaru respectively.
Arbitrage economics to ship gasoil from Asia to Europe
were unviable but more cargoes headed to Africa. The Yang
Li Hu is fixed to load 80,000t of gasoil from South Korea
in mid-November to head to west Africa. Trafigura was
thought to be the charterer. The Ratna Namrata was placed
on subjects to load 80,000t gasoil from the Mideast Gulf
with east Africa as a possible destination. The Freight Margie was placed on subjects to load 60,000t gasoil from Sikka
on 22 November with east Africa as a possible destination.
More gasoil was also seen to have headed from India to
Brazil, according to shipping fixtures. Around 550,000t was
due to load from India in October to head to Brazil, compared to average monthly volumes of around 300,000t.
Brazil uses 1800ppm sulphur gasoil in rural gasoil but
is due to change that sulphur requirement to 500ppm by
end of the year. It is unclear with the increase in October’s
shipments from India to Brazil is linked to the specification
change as the gasoil volume on this route has been volatile in the past. Brazil only imports the high sulphur grade
from the US but is known to have imported the 500ppm
and 10ppm sulphur grade from several places including the
India, Mideast Gulf and South Korea.
In the Mideast Gulf, Bahrain’s Bapco is in the midst of
term negotiations for 2014-loading supplies. Bapco was said
to be targeting a premium of $2.85/bl over Mideast Gulf
quotes but buying ideas were heard pegged at $2 to low$2s/bl. Buyers cited new refining capacity coming up in the
Mideast Gulf next year as a factor weighing down on gasoil
term premiums.
Singapore gasoil November swaps fell by $2.40/bl to
$121.60/bl. The intermonth spread for November and
December gasoil swaps were stable at $1.40/bl in back-
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Singapore
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Low
High
Low
High
±
Gasoil 0.5%
-0.25
-0.05
120.80
121.00
-2.55
Gasoil 0.25%
+0.65
+0.85
121.70
121.90
-2.55
Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm)
+1.20
+1.40
122.25
122.45
-2.55
Gasoil 0.005% (50ppm)
+2.45
+2.65
123.50
123.70
-2.50
Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm)
+2.90
+3.10
123.95
124.15
-2.50
South Korea
$/bl
Diff to Mops
Low
High
Low
High
±
Gasoil 0.05%
+0.00
+0.20
121.05
121.25
-2.55
Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm)
+0.95
+1.15
122.00
122.20
-2.55
Mideast Gulf
$/bl
Diff to Mopag
Low
High
±
+2.50
119.05
119.25
-2.55
+2.90
+3.10
119.65
119.85
-2.55
+3.40
+3.60
120.15
120.35
-2.55
Low
High
124.10
124.30
Low
High
Nov
121.50
121.70
-2.40
Dec
120.10
120.30
-2.40
Jan
119.50
119.70
-2.40
1Q14
119.30
119.50
-2.45
2Q14
118.70
118.90
-2.35
3Q14
117.55
117.75
-2.35
Low
High
Gasoil 0.2%
+2.30
Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm)
Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm)
Japan
Gasoil 0.005% (50ppm)
$/bl
Singapore gasoil swaps
Gasoil arbitrage
East-west Nov spread
±
-2.55
$/bl
±
$/t
-7.11
East-west Dec spread
-9.56
Singapore Nov vs Ice Dec gasoil
+0.89
Singapore Nov vs Ice Jan gasoil
+3.89
wardation. Gasoil’s crack spread, or its premium relative to
Dubai crude for November, fell by $0.40/bl to $16.86/bl.
Page 5 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
fuel oil, bunkers and lswr
Singapore 180cst HSFO prices fell on crude and paper
losses.
Afternoon online trade in Singapore yielded three physical deals. Brightoil bought two cargoes of 20,000t 180cst
HSFO, at $611/t from Philips 66 for 24-28 November loading
and at $610/t from Mercuria for 29 November – 3 December
loading. Kuo Oil bought from Vitol a 20,000t 380cst HSFO
cargo for 19-23 November loading at $601/t.
Results of a term tender by PTT Global Chemical
(PTTGC) to sell two cargoes of 35,000t 380cst fuel oil of
density 0.97kg/m3 monthly from January to December 2014
on a fob Mab Ta Phut basis were not yet available. PTT was
possibly one of the two buyers of the previous term tender
at around Mops +$5.80-$6/t. PTT and Chevron often co-load
MR-sized cargoes from PTT GC who exports monthly around
10,000-15,000t bunker-grade fuel oil from the 150,000 b/d
Star Petroleum Refining Company, a joint venture between
Chevron and PTT, for better freight economics.
IRPC and Bangchak Petroleum, the only two Thai refiners which export LSWR, are likely to shut their respective
refineries for scheduled maintenance for around 2-6 weeks
next year. The 120,000 b/d Bangchak refinery is likely to
undergo scheduled maintenance for around 45 days from 1
May to mid-June in 2014. Bangchak typically offers monthly
MR-sized LSWR cargo. But a change of crude oil feedstock
grade sometimes sees the refiner exporting VGO as well.
The 215,000 b/d IRPC refinery is likely to undergo
scheduled maintenance for around 15 days from end- March
to mid- April 2014. IRPC typically offers monthly a MR-sized
380cst HSFO cargo with high metals content every two
months. Trading firm Mercuria is a regular buyer of these
cargoes.
Korea Western Power sought through a tender for a
45,000t cargo of 540cst maximum 2.59pc sulphur HSFO for
delivery to Pyeongtaek between 2-6 December. Offers are
to be submitted by 11 November and remain valid till 14 November. The utility last bought 90,000t of similar specifications fuel oil for November delivery to Pyong Taek.
India’s MRPL last week sold through a tender 80,000t
of 380cst HSFO of density 0.97kg/m3 loading from New
Mangalore on 25-27 December to Mitsui at Mops +$6.15/t.
Mitsui has been paying record-high premiums of $6-8/t over
Mops 380cst for December-loading 380cst HSFO cargoes
from MRPL due to a dearth of low density blendstock in the
market.
Mitsui and Vitol were thought to have been won the 12month long term contracts starting July 2013 to buy 840,000
bl of 400-500cst Columbian fuel oil monthly at around Mops
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Singapore
$/t
Diff to Mops
Low
High
±
+6.00
617.25
618.25
-0.50
+6.00
609.00
610.00
-0.50
Low
High
HSFO 180cst
+5.00
HSFO 380cst
+5.00
Mideast Gulf
$/t
Diff to Mopag
Low
High
±
-
601.85
602.85
-0.05
+8.50
593.60
594.60
-0.05
Low
High
628.25
629.25
Low
High
HSFO 180cst
-
HSFO 380cst
+6.50
South Korea
$/t
HSFO 180cst
Japan
-0.50
$/t
HSFO 180cst
Low
High
628.20
629.20
Indonesia
±
-0.50
$/bl
Diff to Pertamina
LSWR V-1250
±
Low
High
+15.90
+16.10
Low
High
±
108.73
108.93
+0.00
Singapore
$/t
Low
High
Nov
614.00
615.00
+0.00
Dec
607.50
608.50
+0.00
Jan
604.75
605.75
+0.00
1Q14
604.25
605.25
+0.00
2Q14
603.08
604.08
+0.00
3Q14
602.25
603.25
+0.00
Low
High
Nov
605.75
606.75
+0.00
Dec
599.25
600.25
+0.00
Jan
596.25
597.25
+0.00
HSFO 180cst swaps
Singapore
HSFO 380cst swaps
±
$/t
±
-$49/t on a fob Mamonal basis. This high-viscosity and high
density Colombian fuel oil is typically co-loaded with fuel
oil from the US gulf coast via ship-to-ship transfer at Aruba
to head to Singapore. Draft depth restrictions limit loading
at Mamonal to Panamax-size vessels of only around 60,000t
Page 6 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
fuel oil. A key end-user outlet for this fuel oil is the bunker
fuels market in Singapore but the cargoes have to have their
viscosity and density blended down first.
In the paper market, November swaps fell by $7.50/t
to $607/t. The November-December time spread narrowed
by $1/t to $5.50/t in backwardation, while the DecemberJanuary time spread widened by $0.25/t to $3/t in backwardation. The November front-month 180/380cst viscosity spread widened by $0.50/t to $8.75/t, while fuel oil’s
discount to Dubai crude narrowed by $0.97/bl to a discount
of $10.10/bl.
4th Argus Mideast Gulf and
India Ocean Oil Conference 2013
25-27 November 2013
JW Marriot Marquis Dubai, UAE
www.argusmedia.com/amgio
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Page 7 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
china fuel oil, bunkers and marine fuels
Spot prices of 180cst HSFO were unchanged at 4,350-4,400
yuan/t in south China and Yn4,550-4,600/t in east China,
despite a fall in crude futures and Singapore bunker prices
on Friday. Suppliers mostly kept offers firm and operated
cautiously with low inventories. A sharp fall in Singapore
bunker prices at the end of last week hit market sentiment.
Some suppliers in the east considered reducing offers in the
coming days if crude futures did not recover. A slight fall in
blending costs in the previous week maintained margins at
suppliers. But a rise in China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Friday strengthened market
confidence.
In the straight-run fuel oil market, premiums for Russian
M100 cargoes to be delivered in 15-30 days stayed flat at
$95-97/t on a cfr China basis after an increase of $4/t on
Friday. Premiums are in line with the estimated $95/t premium at which BP agreed to buy Russian M100 from Rosneft
over 14 months starting in November. The NDRC cut product
price ceilings by Yn75/t for gasoline effective on Friday,
prompting some teakettles to lower offers by around Yn3050/t. Falls in ex-refinery gasoline prices and fluctuating
Russia M100 prices reduced refining margins at teakettles’
combined units running M100 by Yn89/t from 8-29 October,
and narrowed the premium to Shengli crude refining margins by Yn66/t to Yn147/t. Shengli crude refining margins at
combined units earlier this month improved to above parity
because of a fall in Shengli crude prices to Yn5,004/t for
November deliveries. Refining margins had stayed negative
for the whole of October.
Four lots of the April 2014 contract were traded on the
Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the contract settling up by
Yn111/t at Yn4,398/t. The February contract settled lower
by Yn7/t at Yn4,150/t while the May, June, July, October
and November contracts settled higher by Yn116-122/t at
Yn4,618-4,859/t in line with exchange rules that provide
for price changes even if there are no trades. Open interest rose to 44 lots, as the April contract contributed four
lots. Fuel oil stocks at nominated storage terminals to meet
physical delivery have been unchanged at 15,600t since 15
July.
Prices in the bonded bunker market fell by up to $7/t
at all three ports in China. Sharp falls in Singapore bunker
prices since Friday turned sentiment bearish and weighed
on prices in the Chinese bonded bunker market.
South China fuel oil fob
HSFO 180cst barge STS
High
±
4,350.00 4,400.00
+0.00
South China fuel oil fob differentials
$/t
Diff to Mops
±
Low
High
M100 C+F east China
+95.00
+97.00
+0.00
M100 C+F south China
+95.00
+97.00
+0.00
East China fuel oil fob
$/t
Low
High
±
713.25
714.25
-0.50
Low
High
±
Nov
628.25
630.25
+0.00
Dec
621.75
623.75
+0.00
Jan
619.00
621.00
+0.00
Low
High
±
Singapore
621.00
623.00
+0.00
South Korea
659.00
661.00
+0.00
Fujairah
644.00
646.00
+0.00
na
na
na
HSFO east China
South China fuel oil c+f
$/t
Bunkers 180cst
Russian far east
$/t
Bunkers 380cst
$/t
Low
High
±
Singapore
610.00
612.00
+0.00
South Korea
637.00
639.00
+0.00
Fujairah
617.00
619.00
+0.00
Hong Kong
615.00
617.00
+0.00
Shanghai
637.00
639.00
+0.00
Qingdao
636.00
638.00
+0.00
Low
High
±
Singapore
915.00
925.00
+0.00
South Korea
935.00
945.00
+0.00
Fujairah
965.00
975.00
+0.00
Marine diesel
$/t
Marine gasoil
$/t
Low
High
±
Singapore
925.00
935.00
+0.00
South Korea
945.00
955.00
+0.00
Fujairah
975.00
985.00
+0.00
na
na
na
Russian far east
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
yuan/t
Low
Page 8 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
freight routes
Spot freight rates
Mideast Gulf-Japan
Mideast Gulf-Singapore
Fuel oil
Size t
$/t
Naphtha
80,000
15.39
Naphtha
Mideast Gulf-Singapore
Gasoline
Mideast Gulf-Singapore
Size t
$/bl
35,000
2.08
Size t
$/bl
Gasoil
55,000
2.58
Jet
55,000
2.44
Size t
$/t
55,000
30.96
75,000
27.72
Singapore-Japan
Clean products
Singapore-Japan
Size t
$/t
30,000
17.65
Size t
$/bl
Gasoil
30,000
2.37
Jet
30,000
2.24
*Freight rates are taken from
Argus Freight
Indonesia-Japan
Fuel oil
Fuel oil margin
-8
Size t
$/t
80,000
10.97
$/bl
LSWR vs Duri crude
6
Dubai crude = 0
$/bl
Duri = 0
4
-9
2
0
-10
-2
-11
-4
-6
-12
-13
24 Sep 13
-8
8 Oct 13
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
23 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
-10
27 Aug 13
Page 9 of 13
18 Sep 13
10 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
Refining MARGINS
Refining margins
Gasoil and jet-kero refining margins 18.5
Gasoil
$/bl
Jet-kerosine
Period
$/bl
Dubai swaps
Singapore fuel oil 180cst
18.0
Dec
-9.08
Singapore gasoil
Dec
+16.86
Singapore jet
Dec
+17.26
Japan naphtha c+f half month 1
16-31 Dec
+145.20
Japan naphtha c+f half month 2
1-15 Jan
+138.15
Japan naphtha c+f half month 3
16-31 Jan
+129.65
Ice Brent crude
17.5
17.0
16.5
24 Sep 13
Ice Brent crude
Dubai crude = 0
8 Oct 13
23 Oct 13
Naphtha and gasoline refining margins
15
$/t
Naphtha
97R
95R
4 Nov 13
$/bl
Singapore naphtha fob spot
-
-3.56
Singapore 97R gasoline
-
+7.01
Singapore 95R gasoline
-
+5.86
Singapore 92R gasoline
-
+2.61
Singapore HSFO vs Indonesia LSWR
150
92R
$/bl
$/t
HSFO 180cst cargo Singapore = 0
140
10
130
5
120
0
110
-5
100
-10
-15
27 Aug 13
18 Sep 13
10 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
90
2 Aug 13
4 Sep 13
3 Oct 13
4 Nov 13
methodology
Argus Asia-Pacific products price assessments represent
the market over the course of the entire trading day. Argus
believes that a fair and representative price will include
trade throughout the day. If the market shows high intra-day
volatility, Argus will weight the assessments towards trading
activity at the end of the working day.
Price assessments rely on a wide variety of sources and
platforms for information, including discussion with refiners,
marketers, importers, traders and brokers, to reflect a daily
consensus on the price of the day.
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Argus works to verify all deal prices, counterparties, and
volumes. Argus values transparency, so we publish as much
price, volume, and specification information as we discover.
This allows you to cross-check and verify the deals against
the published prices.
The details of our methodology are available at:
www.argusmedia.com or by calling any Argus office.
Page 10 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
deals and tenders
Issued tenders
Issuer
Trade
Timing
fob/cfr location
Close
Valid
Ceyeptco
Buy 150kb 0.25pc sulphur gasoil and 160kb
jet fuel
26-27 Nov
cfr Colombo
5 Nov
8 Nov
SOMO
Buy 48,000t jet fuel
1 Nov - 31 Dec
cif Khor Al- Zubair
10 Oct
30 Oct
Exxon
Sell 80,000-90,000t 650cst HSFO
7-9 November
fob Yanbu
22 Oct
24 Oct
KPC
Sell 80,000t 380cst HSFO
26-27 November
fob Shuaiba
23 Oct
25 Oct
CPC
buy 35,000t of naphtha
1-25 December
cfr Kaoshiung
30 Oct
31 Oct
CAO
Buy 1.2mn bl jet fuel
Nov- Dec
fob selected ports in NE and SE Asia
30 Oct
31 Oct
Tanzania
Buy 160,259t 500ppm sulphur gasoil and
10,047t jet fuel
Dec
cfr Dar es Salaam
31 Oct
15 Nov
BPC
Sell 170,000 bl of naphtha
13-15 Nov
fob Chittagong
4 Nov
7 Nov
Jopetrol
Buy 25,000t jet fuel
1-5 Dec
cfr Aqaba
5 Nov
12 Nov
ONGC
Sell 35,000t of naphtha
2-3 December
fob Hazira
6 Nov
7 Nov
Banagas
Sell 180,000t of B220 naphtha
Jan-Dec 2014
fob Sitra
6 Nov
20 Nov
Ceypetco
Buy 110,000 bl of gasoil and 210,000 bl of
gasoline
15-16 Dec
cfr Colombo
19 Nov
21 Nov
Korea Western
Power
Buy 45,000t 540cst 2.59pc sulphur HSFO
2-6 Dec
cfr Pyong Taek
11 Nov
14 Nov
PTTGC
Sell two cargoes of 35,000t 380cst HSFO
Jan-Dec 2014
fob Mab Ta Phut
31 Oct
Deals done
Seller
Buyer
Product
Volume
Phillips 66
Brightoil Petroleum
Fuel oil HS 180 cst cargo Singapore
Mercuria
Brightoil Petroleum
Price $
Timing
20,000t
611.00
1 Nov-5 Nov
Fuel oil HS 180 cst cargo Singapore
20,000t
610.00
6 Nov-3 Dec
Vitol
Fuel oil HS 380 cst cargo Singapore
20,000t
601.00
3 Nov-7 Nov
Vitol
Unipec
Gasoline 92R Singapore
50,000 bl
108.90
7 Nov-4 Dec
Petrochina
Glencore
Gasoline 95R Singapore
50,000 bl
112.40
3 Nov-7 Nov
Glencore
Itochu Corporation
Naphtha forward Japan c+f
25,000t
936.00
4 Jan-4 Jan
Glencore
Socar
Naphtha forward Japan c+f
25,000t
936.00
4 Jan-4 Jan
Kuo Oil Singapore
Pte Ltd
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
Page 11 of 13
Diff Basis
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
News
EU proposes cancellation of jet import tariffs|
The European Commission today formally proposed exemption from planned customs duties for jet fuel imports originating from all countries.
The commission notes the need to provide certainty for
traders and give the EU airline industry time to adjust. The
commission’s proposed regulation needs now to be adopted
by EU member states before entering into force.
The proposal ends uncertainty following the revision
of the EU’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP). This
removed duty-free access for the six GCC countries as well
as India’s refining sector from 1 January 2014.
Previously tariffs on jet fuel imports would have been
levied at 4.7pc for India’s refinery sector as well as Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries including UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. GCC countries account for some 35pc of
Europe’s import needs, averaging around 225,000 b/d.
The proposal also removes from 1 January 2014 existing tariffs levied on limited US jet fuel imports currently at
some 25,000 b/d.
Jet fuel is the single biggest expense for most airlines,
with its proportion of total costs ranging from 30-40pc. And
Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel has risen notably following 2012 refinery closures. In that year, exports from the
UAE alone to Europe rose by 50pc, and the GCC countries
accounted for around 35pc of Europe’s import needs, averaging around 225,000 b/d. The International Air Transport
Association (Iata) said IEA data show 32pc of jet fuel consumed in Europe comes from countries that would not have
benefitted from duty free access after 1 January, including
the GCC countries, India and the US.
PetroChina raises capacity at Urumqi refinery
State-controlled oil firm PetroChina has started operations
at a new 120,000 b/d crude distillation unit (CDU) at its
Urumqi refinery in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region,
raising capacity at the plant to 190,000 b/d.
The new CDU started trial runs on 26 October and produced on-specification products this week. An older 50,000
b/d CDU has been closed in line with the new unit starting
up, resulting in total capacity rising to 190,000 b/d from the
previous 120,000 b/d. All units at Urumqi were halted for
one month of maintenance starting mid-August in preparation for the expansion. The refinery’s other 70,000 b/d CDU
remains off line but is expected to restart soon. PetroChina
is targeting throughput of 146,000 b/d in November, up from
about 100,000 b/d in October.
The upgrade also includes the addition of a 30,000 b/d
Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd
waxy oil hydrotreater, 12,000 b/d reformer, 24,000 b/d
delayed coking unit and a 40,000 b/d gasoil hydrotreating
unit. Trials have started at the waxy oil hydrotreater, while
the other units came on line in July. The upgrade enables
the refinery to produce gasoline meeting the China 4 emissions standard that caps sulphur content at 50ppm. The new
standard will become mandatory across China at the end of
this year.
CAO’s 3Q net profit rises by 65pc
Net profit at China Aviation Oil (CAO), the largest physical jet fuel trader in Asia-Pacific, reached $21.8mn for the
quarter ended 30 September, 65pc higher than the same
period last year on higher trading volumes.
The increase in gross profit from CAO’s supply and trading activities helped to grow its January-to-September net
profit to $56.7mn this year, 18.1pc higher than the same period last year. Although jet fuel supply and trading volume
was largely unchanged at 7.85mn t in the first nine months
of this year, trading volume of other oil products surged by
1.36mn t to 3.94mn t. Products that CAO traded more actively included fuel oil, gasoil and petrochemical products.
CAO, which started out as a jet fuel importer into China,
has been diversifying its trading portfolio to other products
since 2008 as the country turns into a net jet fuel exporter.
CAO notes that while China’s jet fuel consumption has
grown in tandem with its civil aviation industry, the country’s jet fuel demand is dependent on the volume of domestic jet fuel output, which has risen sharply along with rising
refining capacity. CAO will “continue to focus on building on
its jet fuel supply and trading business outside China”, the
company said.
Ethylene supplies reach Iranian petchem plant
Ethylene for Iran’s Tabriz petrochemical plant in the eastern
province of Ilam has been received through the western
ethylene pipeline, the world’s longest such pipeline. The
first phase at the petrochemical plant will start up imminently, energy ministry news service Shana quoted Iran’s
state-owned National Petrochemical (NPC) as saying.
NPC said the plant is in the pre-commissioning phase and
the necessary feedstock has been supplied.
The 2,700km pipeline is designed to carry 150,000 t/yr
of ethylene to Tabriz as well as other downstream petrochemical facilities at Lorestan, Mahabad and Kurdestan in
the west of the country. The pipeline will provide ethylene
feedstock to 14 petrochemical plants located along its
route.
Page 12 of 13
Issue 13A - 211 | Monday 4 November 2013
Argus Asia-Pacific Products
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