LNGINDUSTRY | November / December 2014 November / December 2014 www.lngindustry.com US Office: +1 (713) 820-‐9603 UK Office: +44 (0)1621 840447 ISSN 1747-1826 CONTENTS NOV/DEC 2014 03 Comment 05 LNG news 12 All around the world 59 Growth of an LNG mobile pipeline Sean Murray, Worthington Industries, explains the concept of the LNG ‘mobile pipeline’, details challenges and successes experienced in its global applications and describes opportunities for growth. 63 Flexible flaring Naoki Shimoda, USA, and Girish Shirodkar, Asia Pacific, Strategic Decisions Group, provide an overview of the global LNG industry. A L L AROUN D Naoki Shimoda, USA, and Girish Shirodkar, Asia Pacific, Strategic Decisions Group, provide an overview of the global LNG industry. Converting flare gas to LNG is a viable option for oilfield operators facing increasingly restrictive regulations. Charles Ely, Dresser-Rand, USA, explains why. 12 67 Zeebrugge: the transforming terminal THE WORLD T he ‘age of gas’ is now well and truly upon the global energy markets. Fracking has sky-rocketed supply of natural gas from shale and tight formations. Gas has shifted from being a regional fuel to becoming a focal point of global energy supply. Natural gas has historically lagged behind oil as a fuel since it requires end-to-end investment in pipelines or needs to be cooled to cryogenic temperatures as LNG, for transportation to the end customer. The striking growth in LNG trade over the last five decades is evidence of linkages being forged between the key regional gas hotspots and demand centres. This has also been accompanied by increased spot trade and by greater flexibility in the terms and conditions of long-term gas contracts. Dirk Nous, Fluxys, Belgium, examines how the Zeebrugge LNG terminal has begun its transition from a regas terminal to a fully-fledged LNG hub for northwest Europe. Supply dynamics The past couple of years have seen the emergence of a few mega trends on the supply side. Shale gas takes centre-stage in the US Shale gas has transformed the US energy landscape. Reserves in the US stood at 129.4 trillion ft3 in 2012, up from 34 trillion ft3 in 2008.1 Between 2008 and 2011, US shale gas production rose by over 55% each year to almost 8 trillion ft3 in 2011, and its share of total US gas production jumped from 5% to 39%. The US has become the top producer of oil and gas, which led to a large drop in Henry Hub (HH) prices, from US$ 13/million Btu in 2008, to US$ 1.9/million Btu in April 2012 before recovering to US$ 4/million Btu levels in 2013 and 2014.2 72 Tailor-made services Raphaël Pujol, Stéphane Loubat and Pierre Bernoux, Elengy, France, discuss LNG transshipment at the Montoir-de-Bretagne LNG terminal. 77 A great stretch 12 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 NOV/DEC 2014 LNGINDUSTRY Joel Fusy and Nicolas Duhamel, FMC Technologies, France, take a look at loading system operations with reference to Petronas’ FLNG 1 project. 13 20 Finding the right patch Louise Ledgard, BMT Group Ltd, UK, highlights the importance of understanding metocean conditions in order to determine the feasibility of a potential FLNG site. 81 Evolving solutions for every application Peter J. H. Carnell and Vince Atma Row, Johnson Matthey, UK, posit that emerging technology allows greater flexibility for the design and operation of FLNG units. 85 Under supervision Richard Hepworth, Trelleborg, Dubai, discusses the development of new and existing technologies for use in on and offshore LNG applications. 27 A different approach Simon Whibberley, European Automation Projects, UK, looks at technologies for terminal automation systems. 31 FLNG hazard perception 36 The last line of defence 40 Choose carefully Duncan Gaskin, Bestobell Marine, UK, discusses the importance of choosing the right valve for offshore applications. LNGINDUSTRY | November / December 2014 Jean-Paul Boyer, Pentair Valves & Controls, UK, looks at how safety valves maximise the protection of essential infrastructure in LNG applications. 43 Smooth operator Hiroaki Nakamoto, Ebara International Corp., Cryodynamics Division, USA, examines the effect of hydrostatic bearings on cryogenic applications. 47 Job to protect Paul Greigger, PPG Protective & Marine Coatings, examines solutions for fire and cryogenic spill protection. 51 Below zero 55 The pressure’s on... Simon Oury, Cryostar, France, looks at two different challenges facing LNG stations. Copyright © Palladian Publications Ltd 2014. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. All views expressed in this journal are those of the respective contributors and are not necessarily the opinions of the publisher, neither do the publishers endorse any of the claims made in the articles or the advertisements. Printed in the UK. www.lngindustry.com Edward Shanks, AkzoNobel, UK, discusses the challenges facing passive fire protection systems in the growing Arctic and cold climate LNG industries. November / December 2014 Braemar Engineering is a diverse engineering company specialising in marine, offshore and land based gas industries. Its staff has been providing consulting services to the LNG, CNG, LPG and offshore industries for 30+ years. Braemar Engineering specialises in design/design review, plan approval/construction, commissioning/survey of LNG carriers, LPG carriers, oil tankers, oil product tankers, barges and chemical carriers. Experts in LNG export/import, liquefaction, regasification, LNG peakshaving, LNG redistribution, LNG bunkering/fuelling projects. For further information please visit www.braemar.com LNG Industry is audited by the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC). An audit certificate is available on request from our sales department. ON THIS MONTH’S COVER Francesco Criminisi, Wim van Wijngaarden and Shyreen Dahoe, SBM Offshore, the Netherlands, assess the safety benefits of dual nitrogen cycles on converted FLNG units. CALLUM O’REILLY EDITOR COMMENT O ver the past month or so, Britain’s biggest supermarket, Tesco, has been hitting the headlines here in the UK for all the wrong reasons. The Serious Fraud Office has opened a criminal investigation into accounting irregularities at the retailer after it was revealed that it had overstated its profits by £263 million. The announcement was the latest in a long line of embarrassments for the supermarket, which has lost 50% of its market value within the past year alone. Analysts have written endless blogs and reports assessing where exactly it all went wrong for Tesco. But at the heart of the problem is the simple fact that the company failed to keep up with its competition. As Tesco focused its efforts on international expansion (does ‘Fresh & Easy’ ring a bell to any of our readers in the US?), it was accused of taking its eye off the ball back home. The rise of discount retailers since the recession – and changes to the shopping habits of increasingly cost-conscious Brits – has left Tesco playing catch-up. Back in the LNG industry, the Canadian province of British Columbia (B.C.) is also desperately trying to keep pace with its rivals. In its latest move, B.C. confirmed last month that it is slashing its proposed tax on LNG export projects. As announced in February, the tax rate will start at 1.5% of profits. However, it will now rise to just 3.5% after capital costs have been recovered, rather than the original figure of ‘up to’ 7%. The substantial reduction has been attributed to market changes, such as declining LNG selling prices and increased construction costs. [email protected] Editor Callum O’Reilly [email protected] Advertisement Director Rod Hardy [email protected] Advertisement Manager John Baughen [email protected] Production Stephen North [email protected] Website Manager Tom Fullerton [email protected] Website Editor Callum O’Reilly [email protected] Digital Editorial Assistant Katie Woodward [email protected] Circulation Manager Victoria McConnell [email protected] LNG Industry Subscription rates: Annual subscription: £50 UK including postage £60/d85 overseas (postage airmail) US$ 95 USA/Canada (postage airmail). Two year discounted rate: £80 UK including postage £96/d136 overseas (postage airmail) US$ 152 USA/Canada (postage airmail). Subscription claims: Claims for non receipt of issues must be made within 3 months of publication of the issue or they will not be honoured without charge. Subscriptions Applicable only to USA & Canada. [email protected] LNG Industry (ISSN No: 1747-1826, USPS No: 006-760) is published nine times per year: February, March, April, May, June, August, Septemer, October and November, by Palladian Publications Ltd, GBR and distributed in the USA by Asendia USA, 17B S Middlesex Ave, Monroe NJ 08831. Periodicals postage paid New Brunswick, NJ and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: send address changes to LNG Industry, 701C Ashland Ave, Folcroft PA 19032. Laura Cowell Office Administrator Jo Repton [email protected] Publisher Nigel Hardy Uncaptioned Images courtesy of www.bigstockphoto.com Editorial/Advertisement Offices, Palladian Publications Ltd, 15 South Street, Farnham, Surrey, GU9 7QU, ENGLAND, Tel: +44 (0) 1252 718 999 Fax: +44 (0) 1252 718 992 Website: www.lngindustry.com CONTACT INFORMATION Managing Editor James Little Introducing Bill 6, the Liquefied Natural Gas Income Tax Act, B.C.’s Minister of Finance, Michael de Jong, said: “A comprehensive and competitive income tax applicable to the LNG industry gives proponents the certainty they need to make investment decisions while ensuring British Columbians receive the revenues they deserve from this new industry.” Ultimately, the decision to cut the LNG income tax boils down to increasing pressure from major industry players such as Shell and Petronas, the latter of which threatened to delay construction of its Pacific NorthWest LNG project unless the proposed taxes were lowered. Just as consumers now demand the best price for their grocery goods, Asia’s biggest LNG buyers are shopping around to ensure that they get a competitive price for their gas. In turn, developers are insisting on better terms when investing in LNG projects. B.C.’s Premier, Christy Clark, will hope that these significant tax cuts are enough to encourage developers to make final investment decisions on their proposed projects in the province, propelling Canada into a competitive position within the LNG marketplace. Here at LNG Industry, we recognise that our readers (and advertisers) are also looking for increased value. That is why, in addition to launching our brand new app for Apple and Android devices last month (more details on p. 65), we are also pleased to announce that we will be publishing an extra issue of the magazine in 2015. If you are interested in providing a technical article or case study to one of our 10 issues next year (free of charge, of course), please drop me a line: [email protected] Free LNG! Visit u s World at the NovemLNG Summit ber 18 –21! When you add StarLNGL™ to your revenue stream. Linde Process Plants is in the unique position to integrate LNG into your NGL plant. Our product cost model provides the opportunity to give away LNG and still increase your net revenue. StarLNGL™ takes advantage of existing cryogenic conditions to efficiently make LNG while increasing NGL production. StarLNGL™ will increase your profit and secure a leading cost position in the LNG market. Linde Process Plants, Inc. 6100 South Yale Avenue, Suite 1200 Tulsa, Oklahoma 74136, USA Phone 918-477-1200, [email protected] www.lppusa.com Why integrate? • Less capital expenditure • High efficiency process • No redundant infrastructure • Zero impact on availability or reliability of the NGL recovery plant • Increases ethane recovery, propane recovery and plant throughput LNGNEWS Belgium Australia Antwerp Port Authority issues Request for Proposals Santos GLNG completes first gas processing hub T S he Antwerp Port Authority has issued an official Request for Proposals with a view to appointing a candidate to operate an LNG bunkering station, for which the Port Authority will grant a five-year concession. During this time, the operator will be responsible for providing LNG to barges in Antwerp and for maintenance and promotion of the facility. The Antwerp Port Authority is one of the partners in the LNG Master Plan for the Rhine-Main-Danube aimed at promoting LNG as a fuel and as a cargo for European barges. As part of this European project, the Port Authority is building a bunkering station for barges, partially subsidised by the European Commission’s TEN-T programme. After the European announcement of the selection of candidates earlier this year, the specifications for construction of the station will be given to the selected candidates this month. It should be possible for barges in the port of Antwerp to fuel up with LNG at a fixed station by 2016. The possibility for truck-to-ship bunkering with LNG already exists, but the construction of a bunkering station will make LNG continuously available for barges. The exhaust gases from a barge powered by LNG contain hardly any particulates, and the emissions of NOx and SOx are also drastically reduced compared to using diesel. Interested parties have until 5 January 2015 to submit their proposals to the Antwerp Port Authority. antos GLNG has completed the first of its three major gas processing hubs in its Queensland gas fields. The hub is located in the Fairview field, north of Roma. It is now fully operational, with commissioning progressing well at Santos GLNG’s two other major processing hubs. Completion of the hub follows the recent delivery of first gas into the Santos GLNG pipeline and the completion of hydrotesting of the second LNG storage tank on Curtis Island. Santos Vice President Queensland, Trevor Brown, said: “This is a great story for Queensland. Santos GLNG alone is projected to deliver ongoing investment in this state [...] This means long-term jobs for Queenslanders over the next 20 - 30 years.” Brown continued: “LNG is without doubt the new shining light of the Australian economy. In just a few short years, LNG will overtake coal and become Australia’s second-largest export behind iron ore – that is a staggering statistic that demonstrates the massive investment underway today. “We’re making excellent progress at Santos GLNG. First gas is scheduled to arrive at our plant on Curtis Island later this year, we’re approaching 90% complete, we’re on budget and on track to deliver first LNG in 2015.” Santos GLNG is a joint venture between Santos, Petronas, Total and Kogas to supply LNG to global markets. India GAIL (India) and SOCAR sign MoU to pursue LNG opportunities G AIL (India) Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with State Oil Company of Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). As part of the MoU, the two companies will jointly pursue LNG opportunities through capacity booking, LNG procurement and promotion of LNG projects globally. Both SOCAR and GAIL will also cooperate in optimising LNG marketing, sourcing and shipping requirements. Furthermore, the two companies will pursue business opportunities in upstream assets across the world and joint investment in petrochemical projects. Chairman and Managing Director of GAIL, B. C. Tripathi, said: “We are happy to enter into this strategic relationship with SOCAR. Skills and strengths of both the parties would be leveraged to explore business opportunities jointly in natural gas and LNG business including new business developments across the gas value chain.” NOV/DEC 2014 LNGINDUSTRY 5 LNGNEWS USA Canada EIA report confirms the benefits of LNG exports B.C. cuts LNG tax in half A recent report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has confirmed previous findings that higher levels of LNG exports would generate greater economic gains for the US. Commenting on the findings, API Vice President for Regulatory and Economic Policy, Kyle Isakower, stated: “The updated study confirms what past research has found, which is that higher levels of exports prompt more US growth and increase investment in American energy security. “Across the board, demand for exports was met with higher domestic production, showing that America has the resources to supply affordable energy here at home, while lowering the trade deficit, creating new jobs, and supporting our allies overseas. “Even in a pessimistic scenario the EIA called ‘particularly implausible’, the economic gain for America far outweighed a modest increase in natural gas prices. In more likely scenarios, the potential change in prices was marginal, with an impact on electricity bills near zero. More importantly, America’s economy will grow as exports grow, providing more jobs and more income here at home.” T he government of British Columbia (B.C.) has cut its proposed LNG tax from ‘up to’ 7% to 3.5%. The province’s tax framework was reviewed in February 2014. At this time, the LNG Income Tax rate was announced to be 7%, based on 2013 economic assumptions and conditions. The new, reduced rate of 3.5% is the result of changes to the market since February. The combination of declining LNG selling prices and increased construction costs has resulted in a lower rate that is said to be more attractive to investors and more indicative of current market conditions. The LNG Income Tax applies to the net income from liquefaction activities at LNG facilities in B.C. The tax rate on net income will be 3.5%, effective for taxation years beginning on or after 1 January 2017. During the period when net operating losses and the capital investment are being deducted, a tax rate of 1.5% will apply and is creditable against the 3.5% tax. In 2037, the LNG Income Tax rate will increase to 5%. This ensures that proponents have time to build a strong foundation in the communities in which they operate, before the full extent of the tax is applied. It also ensures guaranteed revenue flow for the next generation of British Columbians. Currently, there are 18 potential LNG projects in B.C. that have invested over CAN$ 7 billion to acquire natural gas assets in the province. An additional CAN$ 2 billion has been invested in preparation for construction of B.C. LNG infrastructure. NEWS HIGHLIGHTS XXEU to co-finance construction of LNG-fuelled ferry XXBear Head LNG doubles initial production capacity XXPSE and Totem Ocean pen LNG supply deal To read more about these stories go to: 6 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 Scan to visit the website .com Get the free mobile app at http:/ / gettag.mobi Copyright Cameron LNG. All Rights Reserved. COMPLETE SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LNG LIFE CYCLE From FEED studies to operational delivery and every step along the way, CB&I helps our customers get their gas to market. With an expansive range of technology and EPC capabilities, our value-added services span the entire life cycle of a project — delivering consistent results anywhere in the world. With recent awards and on-going projects in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Australia and China, our integrated solutions in the LNG industry have never been more evident. Contact CB&I to learn how our complete solutions can benefit your next LNG project. ONSHORE BASELOAD LIQUEFACTION OFFSHORE LNG LIQUEFACTION ONSHORE LNG REGASIFICATION ONSHORE LNG PEAK SHAVING LNG STORAGE A World of Solutions Visit www.CBI.com LNGNEWS USA Lithuania BG Group orders Rolls-Royce gas turbines Lithuania welcomes LNG storage vessel B L G Group has selected Rolls-Royce Trent 60 DLE industrial gas turbine packages to be used as the drivers for the main refrigeration compressors at the Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, US. BG Group and Rolls-Royce have also agreed the terms of a Long Term Service Agreement covering the support and maintenance of the equipment for up to 25 years, which will help deliver high levels of availability for the plant. Both the equipment and service contracts are expected to commence in the first half of 2015, subject to the Lake Charles LNG plant permitting process and final investment decisions by BG Group and Energy Transfer, the project developers. Each of the three LNG trains will use four Trent 60 DLE gas turbines as part of the Air Products C3MR refrigeration process. Each train will use two Trent 60 DLE gas turbines driving propane compressors and two Trent 60 DLE gas turbines driving mixed refrigerant compressors for a total of 12 Trent 60 DLE gas turbines in the plant. ithuania has welcomed the arrival of the LNG storage vessel, the FSRU Independence, in Klaipeda. The Klaipeda LNG terminal, described as a ‘guarantor of energy and geopolitical security’, will ensure self-sufficiency and security for Lithuania, enabling the country to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. The 170,000 m3 FSRU Independence, owned by Höegh LNG, is the second of four FSRUs ordered from Hyundai Heavy Industries, and will serve as Lithuania’s first LNG import terminal under a long-term charter with Klaipėdos Nafta. Speaking at the ceremony, President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaitė, said: “In the twenty-fifth year of its re-independence, Lithuania again stands proud of its strong spirit, courage and political will. The liquefied natural gas terminal is an important strategic project and a great victory of our state. It is not only energy independence, but also political freedom. From now on, nobody will dictate us the price for gas or buy our political will.” DIARY DATES 18 - 21 November 2014 27 - 29 January 2015 24 - 25 February 2015 Paris, France world.cwclng.com Vienna, Austria www.europeangas-conference.com London, UK www.informamaritimeevents.com 15th World LNG Summit European Gas Conference 2015 LNG Shipping Conference 26 - 28 January 2015 02 - 04 February 2015 11 - 13 March 2015 Amsterdam, the Netherlands www.lngbunkeringsummit.com Houston, Texas, USA www.worldlngfuels.com Perth, Australia www.aogexpo.com.au LNG Bunkering Summit 2015 8 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 World LNG Fuels Australasian Oil & Gas (AOG 2015) LNGNEWS Asia-Pacific The Netherlands Korean Register to promote LNG-fuelled ships Gate secures financing for LNG expansion K G orean Register (KR) will work with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat (APEC) to promote the use of LNG-fuelled ships in the APEC region. KR and APEC will collaborate to further the understanding of the current state and future potential for LNG-fuelled vessels to serve the region’s maritime trade requirements. In 2011, the group confirmed their commitment to “an action agenda to move APEC towards an energy efficient, sustainable, low carbon transport future.” LNG-fuelled shipping is believed to be one of the optimum potential solutions to help achieve this aim. “We are proud to be internationally recognised as a technical consultancy qualified to deliver high quality research and expertise on LNG-fuelled ships to the APEC community,” said Kim Chang-wook, Executive Vice President and acting Chairman and CEO of KR. “I am confident that this project will raise our collective knowledge on the potential for LNG-fuelled vessels and help create a practical environment for the application of this innovative technology for eco-friendly transport solutions,” he added. The project is due for completion by the end of 2015. ate terminal has signed a financing agreement with the European Investment Bank (EIB) and four other banks, to support the funding of the LNG break bulk infrastructure and services in the Port of Rotterdam. The investment in this break bulk infrastructure is expected to boost the use of LNG as a cleaner alternative transportation fuel in the Netherlands and northwest Europe. The new financial agreement adds a total of €76 million to the existing long-term debt financing program for the Gate terminal, worth €750 million. The construction of the new break bulk infrastructure is scheduled to start later this year. Gate terminal will be expanded with an additional harbour basin, financed by the Port of Rotterdam, which enables LNG distribution for small scale use with a maximum capacity of 280 berthing slots per year. “With this funding we can, in a disciplined way, step by step further develop Gate terminal. This new break bulk infrastructure will facilitate the usage of LNG as a low emission fuel all over Europe,” said René Oudejans, CFO of Gasunie and Jack de Kreij, CFO of Royal Vopak. Gasnuie and Vopak are the main project stakeholders. USA Dominion begins Cove Point LNG construction D ominion has started construction activities at the Cove Point LNG export project, located in Maryland, US. Commenting on the occasion, Diane Leopold, President of Dominion Energy, said: “This is a historic event for Dominion, Maryland and the nation. The Cove Point LNG export project will help meet the world’s need to move toward cleaner fuels. “At the same time, it will provide significant economic benefits in terms of thousands of construction jobs, hundreds of millions of dollars in new tax revenues over the life of the facility, and an outlet for some of the nation’s surplus natural gas supplies.” Construction activities have begun at the LNG terminal with initial preparations for worksite clearing and grading. Activities were initiated in October at two off-site locations, a temporary pier being built on the Pautuxent River and a temporary location for offices, material staging and parking for project construction workers. 10 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 Fluid Technology [email protected] LNG Composite Hose for offshore LNG transfer Dunlop Oil & Marine, part of Continental, has an unrivalled track record in supplying oil and marine hoses worldwide. The company is now putting its proven expertise to use in developing hoses for the rapidly expanding LNG transfer market. Floating operations (FLNG and FSRU) will be a key part of this expansion and Dunlop Oil & Marine have responded to this demand by having developed and are currently in the process of qualifying (to EN-1474-2) a 16’, large bore offshore LNG composite hose. Contact us for further information. The Continental oil & marine product range includes: l Large bore LNG & LNG Vapour composite transfer hoses l Condensate offloading hoses l Fluid handling systems www.dunlop-oil-marine.co.uk l Sea water intake systems l Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) hoses l Industrial and hydraulic hose assemblies ALL A R O U N D Naoki Shimoda, USA, and Girish Shirodkar, Asia Pacific, Strategic Decisions Group, provide an overview of the global LNG industry. 12 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 THE WORLD T he ‘age of gas’ is now well and truly upon the global energy markets. Fracking has sky-rocketed supply of natural gas from shale and tight formations. Gas has shifted from being a regional fuel to becoming a focal point of global energy supply. Natural gas has historically lagged behind oil as a fuel since it requires end-to-end investment in pipelines or needs to be cooled to cryogenic temperatures as LNG, for transportation to the end customer. The striking growth in LNG trade over the last five decades is evidence of linkages being forged between the key regional gas hotspots and demand centres. This has also been accompanied by increased spot trade and by greater flexibility in the terms and conditions of long-term gas contracts. Supply dynamics The past couple of years have seen the emergence of a few mega trends on the supply side. Shale gas takes centre-stage in the US Shale gas has transformed the US energy landscape. Reserves in the US stood at 129.4 trillion ft3 in 2012, up from 34 trillion ft3 in 2008.1 Between 2008 and 2011, US shale gas production rose by over 55% each year to almost 8 trillion ft3 in 2011, and its share of total US gas production jumped from 5% to 39%. The US has become the top producer of oil and gas, which led to a large drop in Henry Hub (HH) prices, from US$ 13/million Btu in 2008, to US$ 1.9/million Btu in April 2012 before recovering to US$ 4/million Btu levels in 2013 and 2014.2 NOV/DEC 2014 LNGINDUSTRY 13 Russia looks East Russia has finally agreed to supply China with up to 38 billion m3/year of gas for 30 years through its pipeline network (see Figure 1). The relatively low price that China will pay for Russian gas (US$ 350 per 1000 m3, roughly 10% below European prices as per analyst estimates) is going to put downward pressure on the current Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC)/HH linked contracts. Experts believe that pipeline gas from Russia can bring prices down from US$ 13/million Btu to US$ 10 - 10.5/million Btu.3 Frontier regions The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Africa holds approximately 74 trillion m3 of technically recoverable natural gas reserves, roughly 10% of the world’s total, with the majority still undiscovered. A significant portion of the gas lies off the coast of Mozambique, whose recoverable offshore discoveries total more than 150 trillion ft3, with more expected. Tanzania has at least 30 trillion ft3 of recoverable gas offshore. Mozambique currently plans to bring LNG on stream before 2018 and Tanzania plans on doing the same before 2020. Development is complicated by the complete absence of basic infrastructure and logistics, which must be built from scratch under regulatory frameworks that have yet to be implemented. Potential supply glut expected in APAC by the end of the decade Many new projects have been announced globally across Australia, the US, Russia, Canada, Mozambique, etc. This is expected to cause a supply glut towards the end of the decade, when supply is expected to surpass demand (see Figure 2). It is expected that the higher cost projects will be squeezed out of the market and either postponed or not reach FID. LNG liquefaction costs tripled over the past decade4 LNG liquefaction costs have tripled over the past decade from US$ 400/tpy to US$ 1200/tpy (see Figure 3). However, the comparison is not straightforward. Plant scope, and consequently costs, can vary by a factor of four, ranging from a simple liquefaction train to a complete facility including storage, pipelines and export jetty, together with associated infrastructure (such as construction camp, township and air strip), before any regulatory or environmental costs are considered. Australian projects have suffered large cost increases due to the remote location, substantial infrastructure development requirements, limited skilled workforce, tight social investment regulations and rigorous safety and environmental requirements. The strengthening Australian dollar has also contributed to overall cost. Since 2009, the US/Australian dollar exchange rate has climbed from US$ 0.69 to US$ 0.93 in September 2014, a 34.8% increase, which directly impacts project costs. As such, floating LNG (FLNG) has emerged as a cost-effective alternative to land-based liquefaction, with potentially lower development costs, lower environmental impact and the ability to monetise smaller gas fields in-situ. Petronas’ PFLNG 1 will be the first FLNG project when it is commissioned in 2015. Shift to Henry Hub Figure 1. Siberia pipeline and Altai proposed routes in Russia-China deal. Source: Eurasian Development Bank (bne.eu). Figure 2. Global LNG demand vs. potential supply (million tpy). Source: EY Oil & Gas forecast 2013. 14 LNGINDUSTRY NOV/DEC 2014 HH-linked gas prices are expected to be cheaper than post-Fukushima oil-linked prices. Given the indicative price formulae for South Korea as 1.15 x Henry Hub + US$ 3 (liquefaction) + US$ 3 (transportation), a HH price of US$ 5/million Btu compares to US$ 68.15/bbl of oil, a massive discount to current oil prices.5 As Canadian LNG plants start up, LNG contracts could also be linked to AECO-C (the Alberta gas benchmark). Buyers are trying to move away from oil-linked prices6 – Kansai Electric Power signed a HH indexed agreement with BP for globally sourced LNG, expecting approximately 30% lower import costs. LNG price volatility is expected to increase as LNG exports may pull up HH prices and capital costs continue to rise. Increase in spot and short-term LNG volumes Spot sales help consumers meet disruptions in gas production and smoothen seasonal consumption peaks. 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