CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern
Weekly summary
Vol -1, No-I, 14 Nov, 2014, 09 pages
Editorial
Perception is not changed. With new rail minister in
place I think all rail stocks will fire. Suresh Prabhu is
most trusted man of NAMO and he is also CA. He
has been brought in RAILWAY to see RAIL growth
takes place as per personal thinking of NAMO. This
also means we should go long in RIALWAY stocks. In
my opinion there are only few RAILWAY stocks which
are in non wagon biz. VNR is the largest co having
top line of 2000 crs but it is unlisted. Another co from
LUKHNOW is in railway radiology which is again in
pvt domain. Only co which I feel in public domain
which requires attention is CMI as they are in rail
cables and 1 out of 4 preferred vendors. They have
technical expertise in high tension wires, fire
resistance wires which are recently approved by
HITACHI Japan. Being a small equity and thin
liquidity this stock can become multi bagger.
JET clearance is received and hence it can blast now.
CNI team gave buy on JET on Friday.
India Cement and Century were our top picks and
both these stocks did well.
Nifty is consolidating at 8400 and we may enter in the
second half this week hence roll pain may start by
end of this week. We will not suggest going long in
Nifty till expiry now. The support lies at 8100 8000
hence operators may try to screw you all who are
long in F and O stocks. At the same time B gr stocks
where you are selling may see new high. Aurion PRO
and GLOBAL looks great for new innings. Aurion
some event there on 11th ( party) post results where
foreign directors will get intro to many market wizards
and GLOBAL has crossed Rs 500 after long time
hence could see next level of Rs 660. In any case I
believe this is a 5 year stock with target of Rs 5000.
Hardly any 1 knows about this industry. There were
only 2 analysts in India one is now with HSBC and
another with IIFL (earlier CLSA) knew about this
industry. Third is with CNI which knows everything
about this industry. If I have put in 3 lines then I would
sum up as under...
Cni Research Limited
Change of the week
14-Nov-14
Rise /Gain
Sensex
28046
178
Nifty
8387
52
FII
DII
10-NOV-14
381.6
(314.9)
11-NOV-14
604.9
(516.9)
12-NOV-14
456.5
(559.4)
13-NOV-14
683.6
(738.2)
14-NOV-14
645.9
(517.5)
2772.5
(2646.9)
Total
Turnover (` Cr)
14-NOV-14
14-NOV-14
www.cniglobalbiz.com
FII
DII
Combined
41207.3
15,398
56,605.3
Advances
788
Declines
684
Ratio
1.15
1
There are 4000 vessels in the world. 55% are above
25 years old. Residual 1800 vessels out of which
again 63% are for shallow water exploration which
are not fit for deep water exploration. Deep water
require special expertise and vessels. The temperate
below the see in deep water is as high as 230% C
which is contrary to normal temperature near sea
shore in shallow water. It is like shooting in dark
below 5000 ft in the sea. Thus the vessels left are
666 for deep sea offshore support. Global holds 13
and will rise to 50 in 2 years which will be 7.5% of the
global fleet size. Can you ignore this stock
anymore...? If ignore then come back to join the party
at Rs 2000 plus. TOTAL SHELL and others entering
INDIA. G E USA in Nov 2014 report says INDIA is the
next OIL boom market. The vessels market is narrow
and demand supply in favour hence GLOBAL will
remain honson's choice.
Nifty might cross 8500 this week. Post crossing 8500
we will see roll pain which can bring down Nifty to
8200. Nothing beyond that.
However DEC should be benchmark for market.
First budget preparation has started with big bang.
Second more and more reforms are hitting the
ground. Third the Jharkhand and JK elections will
clear the majority in R S hence all the bills will go
through smoothly. Big win for the Govt.
Then comes J K results. Please note that only CNI
had predicted 272 for BJP and Nifty 7500 pre
elections. All others were not even race with CNI. Our
team has started working on ground realty and we
estimated BJP win in J K with majority. They will get
42 to 44 seats. This can change political and
economic equations globally.
At the outset as told to you global investors and
traders did not enter INDIA before 8200. Now the
pace is catching and JK win will make them infuse 10
bn usd in 3 months. This is inevitable. BJP Govt set
to prove this and the popularity of NAMO may rise to
No 1 from current no 15. Congress must learn lesson
from this.
confirmation GOSL will blast beyond 4 digit hence I
suggest small holding one should have in this co
5 Top Gainers
Stock
14-Nov-14
10-Nov-14
% Gain
AMTEK AUTO
207.2
165.7
24.8
BAYER CROP
2707.2
2295.7
17.9
BALRAM.CHINI
64.3
55.8
15.2
ASHOK LEYL
54.5
47.5
14.9
1465.3
1281.9
14.3
JUBL FOOD
5 Top Losers
Stock
14-Nov-14
10-Nov-14
KAILASH AUTO
21
28.0
25.1
BAJAJ ELECT
233.8
293.7
20.3
ENGINRS
225.8
270.4
16.4
FINOLEX IND
286.1
339.6
15.7
BALKRISH IND
690.6
815.7
15.3
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group
Company
BHARTI
AMBUJA
REL
AXIS
M&M
Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group
Company
Global offshore is the largest vessel supplier in the
WORLD and G E may soon initiate talks with G O as
per sources for OIL exploration and vessels
arrangement. BOURBON is already bidding a tender
with JNPT worth 220 mn euro though there are no
official confirmations for this. The day we get first
Cni Research Limited
% Loss
www.cniglobalbiz.com
RASI
AURIONPRO SOLUTION
RMCL
GLOBAL OFFSHORE
BALASORE ALLOYS
2
which earns close to Rs 80 crs pat 14 15 which will rise to 110 120 crs in 15 16. With equity at 24 crs stock is
still at 10 pe as against 40 pe globally leaving lot of steam on table for investors.
Heard from source big bull has started accumulating this stock. If true then it will be another UNITED SPIRIT
for sure. 3 SING funds too are buying though they are not getting enough stuff due to liquidity issue but stock
may see Rs 660 soon on value buying.
Nifty is going up smoothly. Cement shares are in action. CPI will be around 5 pc or below 5 pc and IIP no will
be around 1% which clearly suggest rate cut. Cement and bank auto will fire.
We had given buy HDFC Bank. FII limit will be coming next week. 20 pc upside possible.
We suggest hold long.
Nifty heading for 9000 plus. This settlement the base has now shifted from 8000 to 8300 which means lot of
shorts are wire. In that case we may see expiry at 8500 or plus 8500 depending on the spread built in last few
sessions.
When I was telling you 8500 in Oct and I did not happen many were questioning my strike rate on the same.
You must know I am not trader, nor operator nor market mover. Hence my understanding may fell in shorter
version though I have huge track record for years.
Who else told you that Nifty will test 7500 pre elections...? No one...
Now I am telling you we are all set to cross 9000 and then 10000 very soon.
The biggest rally is unfolded. Only thing that your conviction will help you make money. My Bellard Pier story
has not yet started hence making money will be still a difficult case scenario. This will prompt traders to short at
every rise and lose money. They always get frustrated if they do not get easy money.
After 10000 Nifty stocks will look much cheaper.
I will still suggest do not bother about returns in short term and just consolidate your holding. Mark my words
everyone in the world will cry one day that why have I sold this share...?
Cera became 4000 from Rs 90 and similar will be the case will many stocks. I met one big OIL analysts
yesterday. He has defied OIL fall and clearly said that no one understand this biz. In fact his opinion is that
GLOBAL OFFSHORE which have market share of close to 2% and may rise to 6% will be 20 bagger from here
not 10 bagger. If ARVINDO pharma can trade at Rs 10600 (10 face value) Page can trade at Rs 10000 why
not this stock....? There is no risk of downfall as the business model is as good as leasing co. In 8 years the
vessels becomes free even if you take on bareboat. You sell the vessel within 8 years and buy new one. This
is built in the Balance Sheet which will never be visible easily. The vessels are depreciated over 30 years
hence Net Block will be never the true value. You have to add Re difference and steel price difference to
understand the real value of the assets.
Please tell JET is reporting losses every quarter yet this stock is trailing at Rs 260 why...? Why not at Rs 20 or
30.... This is assets valuations. Same is the c
I can suggest just forget this stock as your cost may be by now minus hence keep this share for your kids like
what I was recommending Pfizer at Rs 300 Z F Steering etc.
Range for this settlement is 8250 and 8500. Next settlement could see huge rally. My end target of NIFTY is
21000 whether you believe it or not. Hence I will always advise my investors and followers to stay invested for
next five years. Those who sell shares will cry ever.
Accumulate stocks you like and sit tight for next 5 years. NAMO wants to see INDIAN investors which is at
present is just 2% of the population should rise to 8 to 10% as against FII holding of 22%. He always believes
level playing hence will give major sops to investors. New guidelines will come to see major relaxation in IPO.
The present guidelines of Rs 15 crs average 3 years IBITDA is stretched and do not allow many good
companies to raise funds from public. This has made promoters manipulate Balance sheet and cheat
Cni Research Limited
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3
investors. Geniune promoters are going for reverse merger and now even that door is closed. NAMO wants to
open this door as per my sources. I think the fun is there only in equity. That is why GOLD is falling. Real
Estate will fall heavily as BJP is never in favour of real estate simply because they do not own real estate in
INDIA.
Real Estate stock will rise as they may raise FSI, property prices will fall , houses will become cheap but real
estate cos will gain due to increase in free inventory. Hence for investment purpose real estate better you differ
you investment decisions.
GLOBAL OFFSHORE is under heavy consolidation. Just last 10 days data suggest ( www.cniglobalbiz.com)
delivery accumulated in BSE is over 1 lac shares and in NSE over 2 lac shares. Considering poor liquidity
these nos are huge and suggest stock will blast very soon. Another 5 lac shares buying in offing from
SINGAPORE funds. Name I cannot reveal.
.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
4
Next Week’s Events
GLOBAL STORY
Finally we are at 8400. Exactly 1 month before
street was talking for 7500 and it’s was just CNI
conviction on market of nifty touching new highs. All
the fundamental parameter is on the bull’s side and
we believe 8888 is soon on the way. So don’t
mistaken to go short on street.
Monday, 17-NOV-2014
Industrial production
Empire state Mfg survey
We were continuously advising advising you buy
HDFC Bank from 830 levels and yesterday news
on FIPB came and stock hit 935 levels. HDFC Bank
has finally received the much-awaited Foreign
Investment Promotion Board’s (FIPB) approval for
its foreign direct investment proposal.
Tuesday,18-OCT-2014
PPI-FD
Housing market index
Wednesday,19-NOV-2014
Global offshore has entered a new range. First the
stock had a support level of around 470 and the
new level is 505. Heard many institutional buying is
seen on the counter. We are still recommending
you to enter the same. Same act will be seen in
Aurion pro.
Housing starts
FOMC Minutes
Thursday,20-NOV-2014
Jobless claim
Consumer Price index
Friday, 21-NOV-2014
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
RMCL came out with strong set of number with topline came at 8.8 Cr Vs 3.9 Cr QOQ. Net profit came
at 42 Lakh Vs 4.7 Cr loss. A perfect turnaround
story. Look at the earning number on the BSE site.
Add midcap stocks in your portfolio. Kinetic eng,
Balasore, Jet. In large cap segment Cairn India
looks highly attractive as company is a perfect
crude play and in our understanding crude has
bottomed out and will now see up-move.
Have a happy weekend. We will get back to you on
Monday.
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
5
Global Indices
Country
Indices
Date
Index
Net Change
Change
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
14/11
24,087.38
+67.44
+0.28
Singapore
Straits Times
14/11
3,315.67
+10.74
+0.32
South Korea
Seoul Composite
14/11
4,688.54
+8.40
+0.18
United States
NASDAQ
14/11
17,634.74
-18.05
-0.10
United States
DJIA
14/11
2,039.82
+0.49
+0.02
United States
S&P 500
14/11
17,490.83
+98.04
+0.56
Japan
Nikkei 225
14/11
6,647.62
+12.17
+0.18
United Kingdom
FTSE 100
14/11
1,813.79
-2.02
-0.11
Malaysia
KLSE Composite
14/11
5,049.49
+0.82
+0.02
Indonesia
Jakarta Composite
14/11
1,575.88
-1.33
-0.08
Thailand
SET
14/11
4,202.46
+14.51
+0.35
France
CAC 40
14/11
9,252.94
+4.43
+0.05
Germany
DAX
14/11
9,749.70
-169.81
-1.71
Argentina
MerVal
14/11
51,772.40
-73.63
-0.14
Brazil
Bovespa
14/11
43,372.01
-371.79
-0.85
Mexico
IPC
14/11
2,189.70
+1.05
+0.05
Austria
ATX
14/11
3,162.45
+1.02
+0.03
Belgium
BEL-20
14/11
411.97
+0.56
+0.14
Netherlands
AEX General
14/11
1,029.15
+1.35
+0.13
Spain
Madrid General
14/11
8,915.31
-39.09
-0.44
Switzerland
Swiss Market
14/11
5,433.82
+10.36
+0.19
Australia
All Ordinaries
14/11
2,478.82
-6.78
-0.27
China
Shanghai Composite
14/11
7,217.34
+18.71
+0.26
Philippines
PSE Composite
14/11
7,501.09
+21.40
+0.29
Sri Lanka
All Share
14/11
8,982.88
+2.21
+0.02
Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted
14/11
1,289.52
+2.78
+0.22
East Egypt
CMA
14/11
1,945.14
-15.37
-0.78
Cni Research Limited
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6
Bulk deal
Company Name
Date
BSE Code
21STCENMGM
14-Nov-14
526921
SUNIL CAPITAL
S
60002
26.7
21STCENMGM
14-Nov-14
526921
SUNIL CAPITAL
B
64002
25.59
21STCENMGM
14-Nov-14
526921
GAJANAN ENTERPRISES
S
63001
27.35
21STCENMGM
14-Nov-14
526921
GAJANAN ENTERPRISES
B
53010
26.24
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
GEETA AGRAWAL
B
50000
10.95
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
NIKON FINLEASE PVT L
S
49365
12.68
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
KIRAN SHAMJI SINDHAL
S
187148
10
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
KIRAN SHAMJI SINDHAL
B
186040
13.97
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
GREEN VENTURE SECURI
S
500000
13.94
ACEEDU
14-Nov-14
530093
PRABHA GUPTA
S
100000
12.51
Aksh Optifibre Limited
13-Nov-14
AKSHOPTFBR
ASPIRE EMERGING FUND
S
785000
17.75
ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd
13-Nov-14
ARSSINFRA
MALLINATH SHARES & S
B
92072
44.57
ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd
13-Nov-14
ARSSINFRA
MALLINATH SHARES & S
S
92072
45.15
Bharatiya Global Info Lt
13-Nov-14
BGLOBAL
AVINASH CHANDRA
B
100000
4.25
Delta Corp Limited
13-Nov-14
DELTACORP
SWISS FINANCE CORPOR
B
2263336
99.61
Simplex Infrastructures
13-Nov-14
SIMPLEXINF
RELIANCE CAPITAL MUT
B
1000000
275
Simplex Infrastructures
13-Nov-14
SIMPLEXINF
BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAG
S
422240
275
Simplex Infrastructures
13-Nov-14
SIMPLEXINF
THE MASTER TRUST BAN
S
306963
275
Subex Limited
13-Nov-14
SUBEX
MALLINATH SHARES & S
B
697534
13.26
Subex Limited
13-Nov-14
SUBEX
MALLINATH SHARES & S
S
847574
13.01
Decolight Ceramics Limit
12-Nov-14
DECOLIGHT
VARMORA KAMLESH DINE
B
349035
1.95
Decolight Ceramics Limit
12-Nov-14
DECOLIGHT
ANKITKUMAR DINESHKUM
S
286795
1.95
Decolight Ceramics Limit
12-Nov-14
DECOLIGHT
SOWMYA DESHPANDE
S
2565000
1.95
Decolight Ceramics Limit
12-Nov-14
DECOLIGHT
VARMORA KAMLESH DINE
S
349035
1.95
Kalindee Rail Nirman (En
12-Nov-14
KALINDEE
SANATAN FINANCIAL AD
S
86800
112.53
Jindal Saw Limited
11-Nov-14
JINDALSAW
VALIANT MAURITIUS PA
S
3816000
80.54
Jindal Saw Limited
11-Nov-14
JINDALSAW
VALIANT MAURITIUS PA
S
3384000
80.54
Lovable Lingerie Ltd
11-Nov-14
LOVABLE
N.K. SECURITIES
B
137812
442.94
Lovable Lingerie Ltd
11-Nov-14
LOVABLE
N.K. SECURITIES
S
137812
443.18
Patel Integrated Logist
11-Nov-14
PATINTLOG
MITESH N MEHTA
B
126000
84.48
Pochiraju Industries Li
11-Nov-14
POCHIRAJU
VIJIT SHARES AND COM
B
117516
43
Pochiraju Industries Li
11-Nov-14
POCHIRAJU
VIJIT SHARES AND COM
S
81050
42.83
Prithvi Information Sol
11-Nov-14
PRITHVI
PRADIP KUMAR SHAH
B
100000
4
Cni Research Limited
Client Name
www.cniglobalbiz.com
Deal Type
Quantity
Price (Rs)
7
Call put option
Option Month Strike Price
PUT
Volume
CALL
November - 6650.00
0
Best
Buy
0.05
Best
Sell
0
LTP
OI
0
0
Change
OI(%)
0
Volume
0
Best
Buy
1502.3
Best
Sell
1849.9
LTP
OI
1284.4
5000
Change
OI(%)
0
November - 6700.00
900
0.5
0.65
0.65
17900
-4.15
125
1699
1710
1707.9
184925
0
November - 6750.00
0
0.05
0
0
0
0
0
1410.7
1753.6
1297.7
100
0
November - 6800.00
1075
0.65
1
1
12100
-7.98
75
1599.3
1610.3
1580.1
54475
-0.14
November - 6850.00
0
0.05
0
0.3
0
0
0
1310.75
1653.55
1510
325
0
November - 6900.00
2000
0.7
1
1
18100
0.28
200
1499.75
1510.4
1495
20950
-0.71
November - 6950.00
0
0.1
0
0
0
0
0
1219.2
1557.8
1185.3
300
0
November - 7000.00
30825
1.25
1.3
1.3
272050
1.06
8225
1401.55
1410.4
1409
191825
-2.58
November - 7050.00
0
0.45
0
0.7
0
0
0
1127.95
1462
899
1500
0
November - 7100.00
5000
1.15
1.5
1.2
34050
-9.38
0
1251.65
1345.1
1297
16250
0
November - 7150.00
0
0.5
0
0.2
0
0
0
1033.8
1362
1299
5250
0
November - 7200.00
6975
1.2
1.3
1.3
180000
-0.8
1225
1151.65
1209.35
1205.6
88525
-0.08
November - 7250.00
0
0.5
0
0.6
1000
0
0
936.35
1266.7
949
20750
0
November - 7300.00
59825
1.5
1.65
1.5
508150
0.04
200
1055
1145.1
1075
24875
-0.8
November - 7350.00
0
0.5
0
3
0
0
0
836.35
1166.2
0
0
0
November - 7400.00
371575
1.8
1.85
1.85
907025
-0.99
150
953.55
1047.1
984
64400
-0.23
November - 7450.00
0
0.5
0
3
925
0
0
744.75
1070.4
0
0
0
November - 7500.00
313650
2.2
2.4
2.2
1740825
0.35
9250
903.7
910
905
221750
-1.53
November - 7550.00
0
1.5
0
2.2
9700
0
0
670.5
974.6
0
0
0
November - 7600.00
243275
2.25
2.5
2.5
1252000
-1.29
13100
807
811.2
805
234250
-2.51
November - 7650.00
0
3.05
0
2.65
107525
0
0
570.5
875
500
0
0
November - 7700.00
1022275
2.85
3
2.9
1952175
0.29
2975
707
715.25
706.7
182800
-0.26
November - 7750.00
0
2.7
2.95
2.8
9400
0
0
530.5
779
0
0
0
November - 7800.00
2612075
3.35
3.4
3.35
2548350
20.58
87875
607.75
614.3
611
359500
-2.46
November - 7850.00
5925
3.3
3.9
3.7
74400
0.54
0
431
675.2
518.5
450
0
November - 7900.00
2025025
4
4.1
4
1783450
-6.26
55825
510.15
517
512.3
570625
1.35
November - 7950.00
46550
4.1
5.4
4.05
197950
-4.91
0
275.5
582
436.65
1250
0
November - 8000.00
5265525
5.55
5.65
5.65
5278250
1.77
96800
411.5
415.4
412.25
1464250
-1.04
November - 8050.00
259675
6.45
12
10
224050
1.03
325
321.05
418.95
345
11975
0
November - 8100.00
7028675
8.6
8.8
8.8
5257950
15.99
115850
315.9
319.8
323
1014325
-2.63
November - 8150.00
1401575
10.1
10.95
10.5
1092350
96.33
1175
263.05
285
270
29775
-0.33
November - 8200.00
9942400
15.75
16.15
16
5320375
2.13
344400
223.7
226.1
224
1411400
-2.91
November - 8250.00
1302300
20.75
22.4
21
715575
12.3
18325
169.35
185
181.7
46000
-6.31
November - 8300.00
15046075
31.5
31.7
31.5
5912675
10.72
3792875
140.25
141.95
140
2402600
-4.23
November - 8350.00
1507350
44.1
45.65
46
718900
37.42
568450
105
105.55
105.55
221175
-23.14
November - 8400.00
15261025
61.45
62.05
62
3131275
11.29
1.8E+07
72.3
73
72.3
5157950
-4.93
November - 8450.00
299075
81
87.4
86
172775
16.41
1352575
48.2
49.3
48.65
623700
-2.96
November - 8500.00
2163525
114.05
116.6
115
1109200
2.26
1.8E+07
29.45
30
30
5544250
-5.14
November - 8550.00
5725
147.2
163
150.5
8700
8.41
2832550
15.4
16
15.5
2059100
180.75
November - 8600.00
327750
190.9
192.7
193.6
178600
-1.84
9136700
9.7
9.85
9.6
4526950
-2.84
November - 8650.00
0
151.2
443.5
289.1
300
0
416525
5.15
5.8
5.45
220025
23.54
Cni Research Limited
www.cniglobalbiz.com
8
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