AI2 Market Report Asset Insight Index Market Report Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Welcome to the November 2014 issue of the Asset Insight Index Market Report (“AI2 Market Report”), a monthly publication from Asset Insight. This “AI2 Market Report” utilizes Asset Insight’s proprietary Asset Grading System Process TM (AGSP) to analyze the average maintenance condition of jet and turboprop aircraft listed for sale as of October 30th, 2014 (Source: AMSTAT www.amstatcorp.com). The AGSP is based on patented algorithms analyzing current age, flight hours and cycles on an aircraft’s systems and Major Sectors – airframe, engine(s), propeller(s), APU, paint, and passenger interior – as well as the typical cost to repair or replace parts with no defined life. The Process provides a standardized scale that enables buyers, sellers, financiers and other interested parties to: Objectively analyze and grade an aircraft’s maintenance condition relative to the manufacturer’s approved maintenance program. Compare any aircraft’s maintenance condition to another aircraft listed for sale to justify an asking or offering price for a listed aircraft. The Asset Insight Index, derived from the AGSP, evaluates three aspects of an aircraft’s maintenance. Following is an explanation of each Index component and what the figures represent (see pages 9 – 10): Maintenance Rating – Asset Technical Condition Score (“ATC Score”) Grades the aircraft’s maintenance status relative to its optimal maintenance condition -5.000 – 2.000 3.000 4.000 – 6.000 7.000 8.000 – 10.000 Poor Asset Quality Below average asset quality due to upcoming scheduled maintenance Most aircraft will Score within this range, representing good asset quality Very good asset quality (usually associated with recent production aircraft) Exceptional asset quality (typical of new, or nearly new, production aircraft) Financial Rating – Asset Technical Financial Condition Score (“ATFC Score”) Grades the aircraft’s scheduled maintenance events cost associated with its ATC Score 0.000 All scheduled maintenance events due 3.000 4.000 – 6.000 7.000 10.000 Aircraft burdened by upcoming, high cost, scheduled maintenance events Most aircraft will Score within this maintenance status cost range Aircraft facing only relatively low-cost maintenance events Newly Manufactured aircraft Asset Exposure – Asset Technical Financial Exposure Value (“ATFE Value”) Measures the aircraft’s accumulated / future maintenance-related financial exposure Max $ Exposure for Make/Model $0 Maintenance Exposure Maintenance financial exposure equal to cost of one complete maintenance cycle Typical aircraft maintenance cost exposure range Newly Manufactured aircraft The AI2 Market Report also analyzes the Asset Exposure to Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”). Representing an aircraft’s “debt ratio,” the ETP Ratio (see page 7) is calculated by dividing the Asset Exposure value by the aircraft’s Ask Price. Accordingly, as the ETP Ratio decreases, an aircraft’s “value” increases (in relation to its Ask Price). Conversely, aircraft whose ETP Ratio exceeds 40% are burdened, on average, with an excessive level of Asset Exposure in relation to their Ask Price (see page 10). Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Overall Market Summary: very good overall asset quality; improved Ask Price; improved Asset Exposure Asset quality for the 76 fixed-wing models and 1,514 aircraft listed “for sale” researched on October 30th revealed that quality assets are trading, as the number of aircraft listed for sale decreased by 28 this month. With higher quality assets leaving the “for sale” inventory, the average Maintenance Rating and Financial Rating fell by 3.8 and 6.3 AI2 basis points, respectively, while the Asset Exposure figure improved by another $49k due to completion of scheduled maintenance. Of the aircraft tracked by Asset Insight (see page 8), 35.5% (unchanged for the fourth consecutive month) generated an Asset Exposure vs. Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) of 40% or more. We consider an ETP Ratio above the 40% level to be excessive in relation to the aircraft’s Ask Price (see page 7), so while there was another improvement this month, from 46.8% to 44.7% (with all groups contributing), the ETP Ratio remained high. Average Ask Price registered a 7.2% improvement (with only Large and Medium Jets participating), rising to $5.94 Million – the highest value since May – and along with the decrease in Asset Exposure, improved the industry’s overall ETP Ratio. AI2 Index – Monthly Comparison – Overall Market Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 10.000 10.000 5.425 5.387 5.075 5.012 -5.000 0.000 0.038 0.063 Optimal Sep '14 Oct '14 Minimal Change Asset Exposure "ATFE Value" $1,377,813 $1,328,471 $49,342 AI2 Index – Market Trend – Overall Market AI2 Components – 90-Day Comparison by Sector Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 6.0 Assert Exposure "ATFE Value" 5.5 $3.0 5.5 $2.0 5.0 5.0 $1.0 4.5 4.5 Aug-14 Sep-14 Large Jets Oct-14 $0.0 Aug-14 Medium Jets Sep-14 Oct-14 Small Jets $Mil Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Turboprops Source for all graphs: AMSTAT (www.amstatcorp.com), Asset Insight research Page 2 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Large Jets Summary: excellent asset quality; higher Ask Price; lower Asset Exposure; best ETP Ratio among all groups While still registering strong figures, Large Jets could not maintain an increase in all three Asset Insight Index components for a third consecutive month. Maintenance Rating for the 29 models and 384 aircraft (6 more than last month) researched on October 30th fell 21.6 AI2 basis points below September’s record figure, and the group’s Financial Rating dropped 12.3 AI2 basis point. Asset Exposure did improve for the third consecutive month, decreasing by a substantive $269k and improving to a figure lower than the 12-month average. Ask Price increased 5.5%, reaching $16.55 Mil and rising above the group’s 12-month average of $16.29 Mil. Seven of 29 Large Jets (same as last month) registered an ETP Ratio of 40% or more (see page 7), but the group’s price increase helped improve its ETP Ratio to 31.1% (best among all groups) from last month’s 33.5%. While Large Jets gave up more ground to Medium Jets this month, they still captured first place in the Ratings and Sellers should be pleased that the figures included an Ask Price improvement. AI2 Index – Monthly Comparison – Large Jets Optimal Sep '14 Oct '14 Minimal Change Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 10.000 10.000 5.964 5.748 4.987 4.864 -5.000 0.000 0.216 0.123 Asset Exposure "ATFE Value" $3,125,458 $2,855,983 $269,475 AI2 Index – Market Trend – Large Jets Ask Price vs. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) – Large Jets Source: AMSTAT (www.amstatcorp.com), Asset Insight research Page 3 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Medium Jets Summary: excellent asset quality; Ask Price just below 12-month peak; high Asset Exposure and ETP Ratio Asset quality for the 26 tracked models and 482 aircraft (22 less than last month) researched on October 30th, evidenced improvement in all three Asset Insight Index components. Maintenance Rating rose slightly (1.4 AI2 basis points), Financial Rating improved 5.8 AI2 basis points to achieve its best figure of the past 12 months, while Asset Exposure decreased nearly $20k. The ETP Ratio for Medium Jets improved to 45.0% from 48.2%, with 12 of the 26 tracked models (same as last month) posting an ETP Ratio of 40% or more (see page 7). Ask Price increased 2.4% to $3.75 Mil, just $20k shy of the group’s 12-month high. Medium Jet Ratings were excellent this month, placing them just behind Large Jets, but the relatively high Asset Exposure value is likely to be reflected in the offer prices tendered by experienced buyers. AI2 Index – Monthly Comparison – Medium Jets Optimal Sep '14 Oct '14 Minimal Change Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 10.000 10.000 5.416 5.430 5.059 5.117 -5.000 0.000 0.014 0.058 Asset Exposure "ATFE Value" $1,182,909 $1,163,148 $19,761 AI2 Index – Market Trend – Medium Jets Ask Price vs. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) – Medium Jets Source: AMSTAT (www.amstatcorp.com), Asset Insight research Page 4 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Small Jets Summary: very good asset quality; near 12-month low Ask Price; ETP Ratio the worst among all groups and not conducive to deal making Small Jets continue to register mixed results. Maintenance Rating for the 12 models and 344 aircraft (3 less than last month) researched on October 30th improved by 10.5 AI2 basis points to achieve the best Rating since May, but the Financial Rating fell by 12.0 AI2 basis points from September’s 12-month record high, while Asset Exposure improved to its best figure since June, dropping nearly $40k. For the fourth consecutive month, three of the 12 models we analyzed generated an ETP Ratio (see page 7) in excess of 40%, but the group’s Ratio improved a bit to 60.8% from last month’s 62.1%. Small Jet Ask Price fell slightly (0.2%) from last month’s $1.79 Million, registering $1.78 Million – just above the group’s 12-month low of $1.77 Mil. While Asset Exposure has improved since August’s $687k 12-month peak figure, the Exposure is still too close to the group’s Ask Price, creating an ETP Ratio that is not conducive to deal making. In short, Small Jet Ratings are good, but offer prices from prospective buyers are unlikely to appeal to prospective sellers. AI2 Index – Monthly Comparison – Small Jets Optimal Sep '14 Oct '14 Minimal Change Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 10.000 10.000 5.174 5.277 5.184 5.064 -5.000 0.000 0.103 0.120 Asset Exposure "ATFE Value" $672,802 $633,878 $38,924 2 AI Index – Market Trend – Small Jets Ask Price vs. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) – Small Jets Source: AMSTAT (www.amstatcorp.com), Asset Insight research Page 5 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Turboprops Summary: good asset quality; third consecutive monthly record low Ask Price; slightly improved ETP Ratio On the surface, it would appear that Turboprop asset quality took a turn for the worse last month, but that is only part of the story, as nine fewer units were part of the 9 models and 304 aircraft researched on October 30th. Maintenance Rating and Financial Rating fell 13.0 and 12.4 AI2 basis points, respectively, while Asset Exposure remained virtually flat. Five of the nine models we track had an Exposure to Price Ratio of 40% or more (see page 7), with this group’s ETP Ratio also improving, albeit slightly, to 41.2% from 41.6%. Following the path of the Asset Insight Index, the group’s Ask Price fell 4.2% resulting in the third consecutive monthly drop and 12-month low figure – just under $1.57 Million compared to last month’s $1.63 Million. In view of the group’s Index improvement and record low Ask Price last month, we advised buyers to seize the opportunity to optimize their value by focusing on asset quality rather aircraft price. It would appear that some buyers listened. Those who did not now face “quality challenges” but, given time, that will change. AI2 Index – Monthly Comparison - Turboprops Optimal Sep '14 Oct '14 Minimal Change Maintenance Rating "ATC Score" Financial Rating "ATFC Score" 10.000 10.000 5.126 4.996 5.075 4.951 -5.000 0.000 0.130 0.124 Asset Exposure "ATFE Value" $558,939 $559,520 $581 AI2 Index – Market Trend - Turboprops Ask Price vs. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) – Turboprops Source: AMSTAT (www.amstatcorp.com), Asset Insight research Page 6 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Exposure to Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) Spread in the ratio of Asset Exposure to aircraft Ask Price (“ETP Ratio”) widened by 15 percentage points this month, however the average for aircraft we track continued to decrease, falling from 46.8% to 44.7%. We consider anything over 40% to represent excessive Asset Exposure in relation to Ask Price, so the average ETP Ratio remains high. A slight improvement is the average Asset Exposure figure, coupled with a 7.2% average Ask Price increase, led to this month’s ETP Ratio improvement. ETP Ratio by Jet and Turboprop Aircraft Group 60.0% Excessive ETP Ratio Level 40.0% 20.0% N D Large J F M Medium A M Small J J A Turboprop S O Average ETP Ratio by Aircraft Model Model F900LX Boeing BBJ F2000LX G550 F900EX EASy G 450 Falcon2000EX Easy CL-605 Hawker 900XP Citation CJ3 Citation XLS (MSG3) G-150 Premier 1A F2000EX Citation CJ1+ F900C F900EX Phenom 100 Citation Encore Global XRS Learjet 60XR Challenger 300 Piper Meridian Global 5000 ETP Ratio 2.7% 4.5% 5.0% 6.1% 7.5% 8.8% 9.7% 10.0% 10.3% 10.9% 11.0% 11.7% 12.6% 12.9% 13.1% 13.4% 13.6% 14.3% 15.7% 16.4% 16.8% 16.8% 17.7% 17.8% Model Citation CJ2 G-200 Citation XLS CL-601-SE Falcon 50EX Embraer Legacy 600 Falcon 2000 Pilatus PC-12 KingAir 350 Hawker 400XP Learjet 45XR Citation X (MSG3) Global Express CL-604 Learjet 45 w/APU Citation Bravo Citation V Ultra Premier 1 KingAir B-200 Learjet 45 Hawker 800XP Piaggio P-180 II Falcon 50 ETP Ratio 18.1% 19.3% 19.7% 21.5% 22.4% 22.5% 23.0% 24.1% 24.6% 26.0% 27.3% 28.9% 29.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.1% 31.8% 35.2% 36.3% 36.7% 40.1% 41.2% 42.7% Model Learjet 55C GV G-100 KingAir 300 GIV-SP (MSG3) Hawker 1000A Citation VI Piaggio P-180 GIV GIV-SP Learjet 60 CL-601-3R Learjet 55 Learjet 31 Hawker Beechjet 400A Hawker 800A KingAir C90 Citation II CL-601-3A Falcon 20-5 Hawker Beechjet 400 Beech B-1900C Learjet 35A CL-601-1A ETP Ratio 43.4% 44.9% 47.3% 48.5% 49.1% 58.5% 58.5% 59.4% 62.3% 62.9% 63.6% 65.5% 69.1% 70.7% 70.8% 70.8% 76.1% 80.4% 91.1% 100.8% 107.2% 124.9% 140.8% 152.0% ETP Ratio Calculation & Significance The Asset Exposure to Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) is calculated by dividing the aircraft’s Asset Exposure (the accrued cost of future scheduled maintenance) by its Ask Price. Accordingly, as the ETP Ratio decreases, the aircraft’s “value” increases (in relation to its Ask Price). Aircraft whose ETP Ratio is above 40% (shown in red) are burdened, on average, with an excessive level of maintenance Asset Exposure in relation to their Ask Price. Page 7 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Market AI2 Index Aircraft Following is a list of the aircraft analyzed by Asset Insight to produce this report: Large Jets Beechcraft-Hawker: Medium Jets Small Jets Beechjet 400 Beechjet 400A Hawker 400XP Hawker 800A Hawker 800XP Hawker 900XP Hawker 1000A Premier 1 Premier 1A Challenger 300 Learjet 45; 45 w/APU Learjet 45XR Learjet 55-55A Learjet 55C Learjet 60 Learjet 60XR Learjet 31 Learjet 35A Citation VI Citation X (MSG3) Citation XLS; XLS (MSG3) Citation XLS+ (MSG3) Turboprops King Air C90 King Air B-200 King Air 300 King Air 350 B-1900C Boeing: BBJ Bombardier: CL-601-1A; 3A; -3R; -SE CL-604 CL-605 Global 5000 Global Express Global XRS Cessna: Citation II Citation CJ1+ Citation CJ2 Citation CJ3 Citation Bravo Citation V Ultra Citation Encore Dassault Falcon Jet: F2000 F2000DX F2000EX Falcon2000EX Easy F2000LX F900 F900C F900DX F900EX F900EX Easy F900LX Falcon 50EX Falcon 50 Falcon 20-5 Embraer: Legacy 600 Phenom 100 Gulfstream: G-IV GIV-SP & GIV-SP (MSG3) GV G350 G450 G550 G-100 G-150 G-200 Piaggio: Piaggio P-180; P180 II Pilatus: PC-12 Piper: Malibu Meridian Page 8 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Analysis Methodology TM Asset Insight, Inc. has developed a proprietary Asset Grading System Process (AGSP) that objectively evaluates assets relative to their Optimal Maintenance Condition and provides an easy- to-understand, uniform, yet robust, set of data that can be acted upon, on a timely basis, to protect and/or enhance an asset’s financial performance. The AGSP is based on patented algorithms analyzing current age, the hours and cycles on an aircraft’s Major Sectors – airframe, engine(s), propeller(s), APU, paint, and interior – as well as the cost to repair or replace parts with no defined life. The AGSP derives an index (the “Asset Insight Index”) providing an objective measure of an aircraft’s current maintenance status and its related Financial Exposure going forward – that is, the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events. The Three Components of the "Asset Insight Index" ATC Score / ATFC Score / ATFE Value Maintenance Rating – Asset Technical Condition Score (“ATC Score”) The “Asset Technical Condition Score” (“ATC Score”) utilizes the Asset Grading System Process (Patent Pending) developed by Asset Insight, Inc. to objectively evaluate and grade an aircraft's maintenance status, on a standardized scale, relative to its Optimal Maintenance Condition (achieved on the day it came off the production line), utilizing the aircraft's (standard/typical) Scheduled Maintenance Program. The ATC Score is based on a scale ranging from -5.000 to 10.000, the latter reflecting a newly-produced aircraft (see scale below). Financial Rating – Asset Technical Financial Condition Score (“ATFC Score”) The “Asset Technical Financial Condition Score” (“ATFC Score”) evaluates and grades the Aircraft's financial rating relative to its Optimal Maintenance Condition based on the Aircraft's ATC Score (see Maintenance Rating above). The ATFC Score is based on a scale from 0.000 to 10.000, the latter reflecting a newly-produced aircraft (see scale below). To score each aircraft make/model, the average cost for completing each maintenance event comprising the ATC Maintenance Program is determined. Having compiled the aircraft's maintenance history, the time (calendar, flight hours or cycles) accumulated toward each individual scheduled/anticipated maintenance event is used to determine the aircraft's ATFC Score. The Financial Rating (ATFC Score) differs from the Maintenance Rating (ATC Score). While the ATC Score evaluates and grades an aircraft's maintenance status relative to its Optimal Maintenance Condition, the ATFC Score grades an aircraft's financial condition relative to its Optimal Maintenance Condition, meaning the ATFC Score is weighted by the estimated cost to complete each maintenance event. Accordingly, the Maintenance Page 9 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 Rating is likely to differ from the Financial Rating. For example, if an aircraft had only two maintenance components, and if one component is three-quarters of the way toward its overhaul while the second is one-quarter of the way toward its overhaul, their combined ATC Score would be 5.000, based on the following calculation: (75% + 25%) / 2 X Perfect Score (10.000) = 5.000. However, if the first of these components has an overhaul cost of $1,000, while the second has an overhaul cost of $10,000, their combined ATFC Score would be 2.955 (see below). Component #1 Component #2 Remaining Useful Life 75% 25% Overhaul Cost Remaining Financial Value $1,000 $10,000 $11,000 $750 $2,500 $3,250 ATFC Score Calculation Methodology Aircraft’s Financial Ratio ($3,250 / $11,000) X Perfect Score (10.000) = 2.955 Asset Exposure – Asset Technical Financial Exposure Value (“ATFE Value”) The “Asset Technical Financial Exposure Value” (“ATFE Value”) measures the aircraft’s financial exposure based On its maintenance condition – the liability accrued / consumed with respect to future scheduled maintenance events – and presents this information in financial terms, as follows: To derive an aircraft's ATFE Value, the estimated cost for completing each event comprising the ATC Maintenance Program has been established. Having compiled an aircraft's maintenance history, the time (flight hours, landings / cycles, and / or calendar period) accumulated toward each individual scheduled / anticipated maintenance event is used to compute the dollar liability accrued toward that event, with the ATFE Value representing the total accrued liability toward future maintenance events Ask Price vs. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) Graph The graph displays the relationship between each aircraft group’s “Asset Exposure to Ask Price” Ratio (the ATFE Value divided by the Average Ask Price) and the Average Ask Price. In general, as aircraft Ask Prices rise, the Ratio should decrease – all other factors being equal. However, the Ratio’s relationship to Ask Price is not an absolute inverse correlation. Aircraft with a greater or lesser maintenance-related Financial Exposure, but with the same Ask Price, may replace aircraft listed “for sale” during any given month. Accordingly, it is possible for both the Ratio and the Ask Price lines to move in the same direction. Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) The Asset Exposure to Ask Price Ratio (“ETP Ratio”) is calculated by dividing the aircraft’s ATFE Value (the financial liability accrued with respect to future scheduled maintenance events) by its Ask Price. Accordingly, as the ETP Ratio decreases, the aircraft’s “value” increases (in relation to its Ask Price). Aircraft whose ETP Ratio is 40% or greater are believed to have accrued an excessive level of maintenance Asset Exposure (ATFE Value) in relation to their Ask Price. ETP Ratios are only available in cases where a statistically significant sample of aircraft Ask Price and maintenance status can be derived for a specific Make / Model. Page 10 of 11 Asset Insight Index Market Report Asset Insight, Inc. (540) 905-4555 [email protected] Jet & Turboprop Aircraft – November 2014 General Information Asset Insight, Inc. (www.assetinsightinc.com) provides asset evaluation and financial optimization services. The company’s “Asset Grading System Standard” (Patent Pending), and related analyses, provides the ability to translate the asset’s technical condition into easy-to-understand, actionable financial information. Asset Insight is independent of any manufacturer, appraisal firm, financial services firm, or technical services facility, enabling it to provide an unbiased view of an asset’s condition with respect to its technical status and related financial exposure. The company is managed by business, technical and financial professionals with significant experience in aviation asset management. This Analysis is not intended to represent a technical evaluation of any Aircraft. Further, the reader, or any party using information contained in this Report, should recognize that this Report is limited in scope, and that discrepant conditions may exist in the analyzed aircraft that were not known by Asset Insight, Inc. The Asset Insight Index and its ATC Score, ATFC Score, and ATFE Value components are based upon the aircraft maintenance condition information reviewed by Asset Insight, Inc. as of a certain date. Running an analysis on any aircraft utilizing a different date, revised maintenance data and/or utilization figures will likely generate different results. Asset Insight, Inc. makes no representation concerning the value or condition of any aircraft. Additionally, Asset Insight, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information obtained by Asset Insight, Inc. that has been used to produce this Report. Copyright Notice The information contained in this document may be copied for use in presentations, proposals, or other business matters related to this Aircraft, provided that no money is exchanged. Additionally, the cover sheet for all such copies shall contain the following notice in readable, bold type: “The attached material is the proprietary information of Asset Insight, Inc.” Asset Insight, Inc. 4310 Starwood Drive, Amissville, VA 20106 Telephone: (540) 905-4555 | www.assetinsightinc.com Page 11 of 11
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