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COMMODITY WORLD
Monday, November 24, 2014
Open
High
Low
Round up
Close
% Cng
Precious Metals
Gold
26483
26629
26348
26391
-0.27
Silver
35901
36529
35703
36080
0.73
126.45
128.2
126.4
127.2
0.47
Copper
413.2
418.2
410.85
412.9
0.07
Lead
125.7
128.1
125.7
126.1
0.12
Gold prices dropped as firmness in rupee weighed after prices
seen supported after a surprise rate cut by China fuelled
expectations demand could rise
Base Metal
Aluminium
Nickel
1010
1026.2
1006.2
1012.4
0.58
139.5
142.95
139.35
141.1
1.51
4694
4818
4687
4697
0.36
Nat. Gas
267.8
280.7
264.1
266.1
0.11
USDINR
61.95
61.98
61.77
61.79
-0.33
EURINR
77.80
77.80
76.77
76.82
-1.08
GBPINR
97.20
97.29
96.72
96.83
-0.37
JPYINR
52.67
52.70
52.42
52.46
-0.08
Zinc
Base metals prices pared some of its losses after prices rallied as
China cut benchmark interest rates in a bid to jumpstart its economy.
China cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than
two years on Friday to lower borrowing costs and lift a cooling
economy that is on track for its slackest annual growth in 24 years.
Energy
Crude
Crude oil gained after China cut interest rates and on
speculation that OPEC could agree next week to reduce oil
production.
Currency
Rupee gained recovering from its nine-month low hit in
the previous session as sentiment improved after China
cut interest rates.
Trading Calls for the Day
SELL GOLD DEC @ 26540 SL 26650 TGT 26440-26280.MCX
SELL SILVER DEC @ 36250 SL 36540 TGT 35980-35640.MCX
BUY CRUDE OIL DEC @ 4650 SL 4610 TGT 4690-4740-4790.MCX
BUY NAT.GAS NOV ABV 268 SL 264 TGT 270.50-274.60-277. MCX (BTST)
SELL COPPER NOV @ 416 SL 419 TGT 412.20-408.50.MCX
BUY ZINC NOV @ 140.50 SL 139.50 TGT 141.50-142.50.MCX
BUY NICKEL NOV @ 1010 SL 992 TGT 1020-1030.MCX
BUY ALUMINIUM NOV @ 126.50 SL 125.50 TGT 127.50-128.50.MCX
DAY
ZONE
2:30pm
EUR
7:30pm
EUR
8:15pm
USD
0
0
0
0
0
ECONOMICAL DATA
EXP
PREV
German Ifo Business Climate
103
103.2
Belgian NBB Business Climate
-5.3
-6.8
Flash Services PMI
57.3
57.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$ Index
Euro
Pound
Yen
DJ
Nasdaq
Hang Seng
Gold$
Silver$
Crude $
88.27
1.2394
1.5657
117.81
2063.50
4712.97
23875
1200.98
16.41
76.18
0.67
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.52
0.24
1.87
0.01
0.04
0.00
Mon
TIME
Global Market
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
1
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Gold
05 DEC 2014
Open
26483
High
26629
Low
26348
Close
26391
% Cng
-0.27
MCX Gold
OI
8320
Volume
18781
Resist 3
26845
Resist 2
26737
Resist 1
26564
Support 1
26283
Support 2
26175
Support 3
26002
Gold prices dropped as firmness in rupee weighed after prices seen supported after a surprise rate cut by China fuelled expectations demand could
rise in the world's biggest gold consumer. China cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years on Friday to lower
borrowing costs and lift a cooling economy that is on track for its slackest annual growth in 24 years. Any measures that accelerate the spending
power of the Chinese public are bound to be positive for gold. Earlier prices seen under pressure after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said
inflation expectations were declining to levels that were very low, keeping the door open for further monetary easing soon. Investors were also
digesting news of central bank sales and purchases. Ukraine’s gold reserves contracted to the smallest in six years as Russia bought bullion, taking its
holdings to the biggest in at least two decades. Ukraine reduced bullion reserves by about 35 percent to 26.1 metric tons last month, data on the
International Monetary Fund’s website showed. Russia raised holdings by 1.6 percent to 1,168.7 tons by the end of October. Central banks globally
are adding gold to reserves after reducing holdings for about two decades from the late 1980s. Worldwide purchases will be 400 tons to 500 tons this
year, World Gold Council said. Ukraine increased gold holdings in all but three years over the past two decades, the IMF data show. Technically
market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.99% to settled at 8320, now Gold is getting support at 26283 and
below same could see a test of 26175 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26564, a move above could see prices testing 26737.
MCX Silver
05 DEC 2014
Open
35901
High
36529
Low
35703
Close
36080
% Cng
MCX Silver
OI
0.73
13369
Volume
32886
Resist 3
37331
Resist 2
36930
Resist 1
36505
Support 1
35679
Support 2
35278
Support 3
34853
Silver settled up 0.73% at 36080 reversing earlier losses after China cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since July 2012. Mario Draghi
strengthened his stimulus pledge for the euro area by saying the European Central Bank can’t hold back in its fight to revive the economy. With the
next policy meeting less than two weeks away and the region remaining close to economic stagnation, Draghi may need to step up efforts to convince
investors he’s serious about reigniting growth and inflation. Expanded measures may not win unanimous approval in the ECB’s Governing Council.
Governing Council member Klaas Knot said this week that he’s “skeptical” about QE. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has argued that largescale sovereign-debt purchases muddy the line between fiscal and monetary policy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its
manufacturing index jumped to a 21-year high of 40.8 from 20.7 in October. Data also showed that U.S. sales of previously owned homes rose to a
13-month high in October. In addition, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week
ending November 15 decreased by 2,000 to 291,000 from the previous week's revised total of 293,000. A separate report showed that U.S. consumer
prices were flat last month, compared to estimates for a decline of 0.1% and following a gain of 0.1% in September. Technically market is under
short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.24% to settled at 13369, now Silver is getting support at 35679 and below same
could see a test of 35278 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36505, a move above could see prices testing 36930.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
2
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Crude Oil
18 DEC 2014
Open
4694
High
4818
Low
4687
Close
4697
% Cng
MCX Crude Oil
OI
0.36
14797
Volume
119114
Resist 3
4912
Resist 2
4865
Resist 1
4781
Support 1
4650
Support 2
4603
Support 3
4519
Crudeoil settled up 0.36% at 4697 after China cut interest rates and on speculation that OPEC could agree next week to reduce oil production. China's
central bank cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years on Friday to reduce borrowing costs and support an economy
on track for its slowest annual growth in 24 years. The rate cut added to a positive mood among oil traders, many of whom expected an agreement
by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Nov. 27 to trim production. There was increasing speculation that OPEC would move to
reduce its output to reverse a market collapse that has knocked almost 30 percent of crude oil prices since June. Venezuela reiterated its call for
production cuts, with Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez saying it was willing to curb its own output if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed to reduce production at its Nov. 27 gathering. Investors kept a wary eye on talks in Vienna between Iran and the big world powers
over Tehran's nuclear programme. Libya's OPEC governor Samir Kamal said that oil ministers from the 12-member group should trim excess supply
and cut its output target when they meet in Vienna on November 27. Oil ministers from Venezuela and Ecuador have also asked for action to prevent
further price declines, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have resisted calls to lower production. Concerns over weakening global demand combined with
indications that OPEC producers will not cut output have weighed on prices in recent months. Technically market now getting support at 4650 and
below same could see a test of 4603 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4781, a move above could see prices testing 4865.
MCX Natural Gas
24 NOV 2014
Open
267.8
High
280.7
Low
264.1
Close
266.1
% Cng
MCX Natural Gas
OI
0.11
8537
Volume
79389
Resist 3
293
Resist 2
287
Resist 1
277
Support 1
260
Support 2
254
Support 3
243
Naturalgas settled flat at 266.1 as pressure seen on profit booking after frigid U.S. temperatures gave way to milder mercury readings, leaving
markets betting that demand for heating will wane across the country. A blast of cold air has moved out for much of the U.S., with milder
temperatures settling in, prompting investors betting that thermal power plants will burn less natural gas as demand for heating falls. While more
shots of cold air are due to sweep across the country into early December, updated weather-forecasting models Friday scaled back on their intensity,
which sent prices tumbling. Investors also continued to digest Thursday's weekly U.S. supply report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration
reported that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ending Nov. 14 fell by 17 billion cubic feet, more than expectations for a decline of 12 billion
and compared to a gain of 40 billion in the previous week. The five-year average change for the week is a decrease of 10 billion cubic feet. Total U.S.
natural gas storage stood at 3.594 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 201 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 244 billion cubic feet below
the five-year average of 3.838 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Mild weather should settle in afterwards, though fresh blasts of frigid air could
follow and drive more demand for heating down the road into December Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in
open interest by -1.83% to settled at 8537 while prices up 0.3 rupee, now Naturalgas is getting support at 259.9 and below same could see a test of
253.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 276.5, a move above could see prices testing 286.9.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
3
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Copper
28 NOV 2014
Open
413.2
High
418.2
Low
410.85
Close
412.85
% Cng
0.07
MCX Copper
OI
8391
Volume
37336
Resist 3
425
Resist 2
421
Resist 1
417
Support 1
410
Support 2
407
Support 3
402
Copper settled up 0.07% at 412.85 as prices pared its gains on profit booking after prices rose as China cut benchmark interest rates in a bid to
jumpstart its economy. China, the world's largest metals consumer, cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years to lower
borrowing costs and lift a cooling economy that is on track for its slackest annual growth in 24 years. Draghi reiterated on Friday that the central
bank is prepared to act rapidly if low inflation persists. Draghi also expressed concerns over the euro zone's weak growth, pointing out he saw no
improvements in the coming months, which fueled demand for the greenback as the euro slid. The ECB head was speaking at the 24th European
Banking Congress "Reshaping Europe," in Frankfurt, and his comments sparked expectations for fresh stimulus. The ECB's current stimulus program
includes purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds, though markets are keeping a close eye out for plans to announce purchases of
government debt, a stimulus tool known as quantitative easing. Credit conditions for metals trade financing had also tightened earlier this year
following a probe into suspected fraud at Qingdao port. Upbeat U.S. inflation data boosted the dollar by firming expectations that the Fed remains on
track to raise interest rates next year. The Labor Department reported earlier that the U.S. consumer price index was unchanged in October, beating
expectations for a 0.1% dip. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.65% to settled at 8391,
now Copper is getting support at 409.8 and below same could see a test of 406.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 417.2, a move
above could see prices testing 421.4.
MCX Nickel
28 NOV 2014
Open
High
Low
1006.2
Close
1012.4
% Cng
OI
MCX Nickel
1010
1026.2
0.58
4888
Volume
33504
Resist 3
1043.6
Resist 2
1034.9
Resist 1
1023.6
Support 1
1003.6
Support 2
994.9
Support 3
983.6
Nickel settled up 0.58% at 1012.4 as expectations of raw material scarcity gave a further lift to the prices. China's mills have been supplementing
their nickel ore stocks with shipments from the Philippines after Indonesia, formerly China's top supplier, banned exports in January. But the
Philippine monsoon season from November to January has begun denting its overseas sales. Nickel prices have rallied on expectations mills will have
to revert to the metal once ore and then NPI stocks run dry. Global production outpaced demand by 31,400 metric tons during the first nine months
of the year, down 70 percent from the same period last year, the International Nickel Study Group said in an e-mailed report. Nickel advanced 5.4
percent this week as a senior adviser to the government of Indonesia, the largest producer of mined nickel ore, said restrictions will remain in place.
Markets are keeping an eye on the global economy for more trading clues. Surveys sounded warning bells as euro zone businesses grew less quickly
than any forecaster expected, and China and U.S. factories lost momentum. U.S. underlying inflation pressures rose in October, bolstering
expectations of a mid-2015 interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. China's mills have been supplementing their nickel ore stocks with shipments
from the Philippines after Indonesia, formerly China's top supplier, banned exports in January. But the Philippine monsoon season from November to
January has started denting its overseas sales. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.87%
to settled at 4888 while prices up 5.8 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 1003.6 and below same could see a test of 994.9 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 1023.6, a move above could see prices testing 1034.9.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
4
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Zinc
28 NOV 2014
Open
139.50
High
142.95
Low
139.35
Close
141.10
% Cng
MCX Zinc
OI
1.51
3894
Volume
16525
Resist 3
146.5
Resist 2
144.7
Resist 1
142.9
Support 1
139.3
Support 2
137.5
Support 3
135.7
Zinc settled up 1.51% at 141.10 on demand hopes after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced its 12-month lending rate by 40 basis points to
5.60% and the 12-month deposit rate by 25bps to 2.75%. It is the first time the PBOC has cut borrowing rates since 2012 and is consistent with
feedback from our China trip a few weeks ago, where contacts felt that a rate cut would be a likely course of action in the face of declining economic
growth. LME zinc prices which opened at USD 2,263/mt, then edged up. The PBOC unexpectedly lowered interest rates, boosting market sentiment
and pushing up LME zinc prices to touch USD 2,318.25/mt, and closing the day at USD 2,294/mt, up USD 42.25/mt or 1.88%. In response, global
shares, futures, and metals prices rose markedly. However, the PBOC indicated right after the announcement of interest rate cuts that it will sustain a
prudent monetary policy. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi hinted last Friday that the ECB will ramp up its asset purchases should
the single currency area’s inflation remain too low for an extended period of time. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to a new 4-year high, but the euro
slumped 1.19% versus the greenback. Major world shares ended higher last Friday. LME base metals closed with gains across the board. Technically
market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.43% to settled at 3894 while prices up 2.1 rupee, now Zinc is
getting support at 139.3 and below same could see a test of 137.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 142.9, a move above could see
prices testing 144.7.
MCX Aluminium
28 NOV 2014
Open
126.45
High
128.20
Low
126.40
Close
127.15
% Cng
MCX Aluminium
OI
0.47
6861
Volume
7651
Resist 3
130.0
Resist 2
129.1
Resist 1
128.2
Support 1
126.4
Support 2
125.5
Support 3
124.6
Aluminium settled up 0.47% at 127.15 tracking gain from LME aluminum which jumped to USD 2,065.5/mt after opening last Friday at USD
2,032/mt, buoyed by the PBOC’s unexpected interest rate cut. Finally, the light metal closed at USD 2,047/mt. Prices finished mostly higher on
demand hopes after the PBOC reduced its 12-month lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.60% and the 12-month deposit rate by 25bps to 2.75%. It is
the first time the PBOC has cut borrowing rates since 2012 and is consistent with feedback from our China trip a few weeks ago, where contacts felt
that a rate cut would be a likely course of action in the face of declining economic growth. Also ECB President Mario Draghi hinted last Friday that the
ECB will ramp up its asset purchases should the single currency area’s inflation remain too low for an extended period of time. Major world shares
ended higher last Friday. LME base metals closed with gains across the board. While Aluminium stocks held at three major Japanese ports rose for a
seventh straight month, hitting a 5-1/2-year high at the end of October as demand fell and the world's third-largest economy unexpectedly slipped
into recession. Japan's GDP shrank by an annualised 1.6 percent in the July-September quarter, after plunging 7.3 percent in the previous quarter
following a rise in the national sales tax that clobbered consumer spending. Japan's economy had been forecast to rebound from the second-quarter
plunge by 2.1 percent, but consumption and exports remained weak, saddling companies with huge inventories to work off. Technically market is
getting support at 126.4 and below same could see a test of 125.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 128.2, a move above could see
prices testing 129.1.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
5
COMMODITY WORLD
Spread View
Commodity
Ratio Trading
Spread
Commodity
MCX GOLD DEC-FEB
380.00
Gold Silver ratio
MCX SILVER DEC-MAR
958.00
Gold Crude ratio
Ratio
73.15
5.62
MCX CRUDEOIL DEC-JAN
30.00
MCX NATURALGAS NOV-DEC
11.40
Silver Crude ratio
7.68
0.60
Silver Copper ratio
87.39
Crude Natural Gas ratio
17.65
MCX ZINC NOV-DEC
MCX NICKEL NOV-DEC
11.40
MCX LEAD NOV-DEC
0.95
MCX ALUMINIUM NOV-DEC
-0.15
Gold Copper ratio
63.92
Lead Zinc ratio
0.89
LME Stock (Tons)
MCX CARDAMOM DEC-JAN
30.00
NCDEX DHANIYA DEC-JAN
681.00
Commodity
NCDEX JEERAUNJHA DEC-JAN
170.00
Copper
NCDEX TMCFGRNZM DEC-APR
1060.00
Nickel
1446
394770
NCDEX CHILLI DEC-MAR
9396.00
Zinc
-2000
676225
-8750
4368825
-100
217025
MCX CPO NOV-DEC
10.80
Aluminium
MCX MENTHAOIL NOV-DEC
11.60
Lead
NCDEX RMSEED DEC-JAN
Change
Stock
-675
160825
7.00
NCDEX SYBEANIDR DEC-JAN
40.00
NCDEX CHARJDDEL DEC-JAN
37.00
News you can Use
The firm anchoring of inflation expectations is critical under any circumstances, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said. The inflation
situation in the euro area has also become increasingly challenging, Draghi said at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. He observed the risk of
too prolonged period of low inflation becoming embedded in inflation expectations. The Governing Council has communicated its expectation that the
combination of all the monetary policy measures it has decided on will expand the Eurosystem's balance sheet towards the levels prevailing in early
2012, Draghi said. The addition of purchases of covered bonds to ABS purchases will allow the ECB to conduct interventions that will achieve the
intended effects, he added. "We will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible," he said. "If on its current
trajectory our policy is not effective enough to achieve this, or further risks to the inflation outlook materialize, we would step up the pressure and
broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases," he said.
After reporting a modest slowdown in the pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia released a report showing that its index of manufacturing activity jumped to its highest level in over twenty years in November. The
Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current activity surged up to 40.8 in November from 20.7 in October, with a positive reading indicating growth in
regional manufacturing activity. The substantial increase came as a shock to most economists, as the consensus estimate called for the index to drop
to a reading of 18.0. With the unexpected increase, the Philly Fed Index reached its highest level since hitting 41.2 in December of 1993. The report
also showed significant jumps by the new orders and shipments indexes. The new orders index soared to 35.7 in November from 17.3 in October,
while the shipments index surged up to 31.9 from 16.6. The number of employees index also climbed to 22.4 in November from 12.1 in October,
indicating a notable acceleration in job growth. On the other hand, the prices paid index fell to 17.3 in November from 27.6 in October and the prices
received index slid to 11.5 from 20.8.
Existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable increase in the month of October, according to a report released by the National
Association of Realtors. NAR said existing home sales climbed 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million in October from an
upwardly revised 5.18 million in September. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected existing home sales to edge down to
5.15 million from the 5.17 million originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected increase, existing home sales reached their highest
level since a matching rate in September of 2013. NAR also said existing home sales were up 2.5 percent from a year ago, reflecting the first yearover-year growth since last October. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, "Sales activity in October reached its highest annual pace of the year
as buyers continue to be encouraged by interest rates at lows not seen since last summer, improving levels of inventory and stabilizing price growth."
The report said the median existing home price for all housing types was $208,300 in October, down 0.4 percent from $209,100 in September but up
5.5 percent from $197,500 in October of 2013.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
6
COMMODITY WORLD
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Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
7