1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. natural gas

COMMODITY WORLD
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Open
High
Low
Round up
Close
% Cng
Precious Metals
Gold
26069
26187
25910
25963
-0.44
Silver
35789
35810
35340
35495
-1.24
128.35
128.35
126.2
127.0
-1.13
415.5
415.5
408.4
409.9
-1.67
125.05
125.05
122.8
123.1
-1.60
Gold struggled to push away from a four-year low due to the
strong dollar and outflows from the top gold exchange-traded
fund.
Base Metal
Aluminium
Copper
Lead
Nickel
966.2
966.2
934.8
937.4
-3.41
142.25
142.25
138.4
138.7
-2.56
4951
4951
4691
4721
-4.88
Nat. Gas
247.6
256.6
247.6
255.6
3.57
USDINR
61.74
61.75
61.58
61.66
0.02
EURINR
77.13
77.13
76.93
77.05
-0.67
GBPINR
98.60
98.72
98.34
98.61
-0.05
JPYINR
54.84
54.84
54.36
54.44
-1.38
Zinc
Base metals ended with losses as concerns about excess supply and
slow economic growth in Europe outweighed the positive impact of a
slightly weaker dollar. The European Commission revised down its
economic forecasts on Tuesday, saying the fragile euro zone would
need another year to reach even a modest level of economic growth.
Energy
Crude
Crude oil tumbles to end near $77 as Saudi Arabia cuts prices
for U.S. buyers.
Currency
Rupee settled flat as continued foreign fund flows
offset nervousness about a weakening Chinese
economy and the dollar's strength.
Trading Calls for the Day
SELL GOLD DEC @ 26150 SL 26400 TGT 26000-25880-25750.MCX
SELL SILVER DEC @ 35800 SL 36200 TGT 35500-34900.MCX
SELL CRUDE OIL NOV @ 4755-4770 SL 4812 TGT 4720-4685-4656. MCX (STBT)
BUY NAT.GAS NOV @ 253 SL 249 TGT 256.50-259.MCX
SELL COPPER NOV @ 412 SL 416 TGT 408.50-404.50-401.MCX
SELL ZINC OCT @ 140 SL 141.50 TGT 138.20-136.50.MCX
SELL NICKEL OCT @ 950 SL 975 TGT 936-920.MCX
SELL ALUMINIUM OCT @ 127.80 SL 129 TGT 126.50-124.50.MCX
DAY
ZONE
1:45pm
EUR
2:15pm
EUR
2:30pm
ECONOMICAL DATA
EXP
PREV
Spanish Services PMI
56.2
55.8
Italian Services PMI
49.6
48.8
EUR
Final Services PMI
52.4
52.4
3:30pm
EUR
Retail Sales m/m
-0.006
0.012
6:45pm
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
214K
213K
7:45pm
USD
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
0
0
8:15pm
USD
Final Services PMI
57.3
57.3
8:30pm
USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
58.2
58.6
9:00pm
USD
Crude Oil Inventories
1.8M
2.1M
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$ Index
Euro
Pound
Yen
DJ
Nasdaq
Hang Seng
Gold$
Silver$
Crude $
87.00
1.2557
1.6004
113.68
2012.10
4623.64
23707
1163.81
15.89
77.20
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.20
-0.28
-0.33
-0.58
-0.39
-0.75
-2.40
Wed
TIME
Global Market
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
1
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Gold
05 DEC 2014
Open
26069
High
26187
Low
25910
Close
25963
% Cng
-0.44
MCX Gold
OI
7732
Volume
10547
Resist 3
26407
Resist 2
26297
Resist 1
26130
Support 1
25853
Support 2
25743
Support 3
25576
Gold settled down -0.44% at 25963 struggled to push away from a four-year low due to the strong dollar and outflows from the top gold exchangetraded fund. The dollar has been an investor favourite recently, hitting a four-year high against a basket of major currencies earlier this week. A
stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. It also dulls gold's appeal as a hedge. While Gold was supported as
the dollar dropped against the euro on a report citing internal tensions within the ECB over the leadership style of its chief, Mario Draghi, that has the
markets expecting limits on future loosening of monetary policy. So far, bullion demand from the price-sensitive Chinese and Indian markets, the
world's biggest gold buyers, were only modest. From the Indian market side with gold imports on the rise again, officials of the revenue department
and other government agencies feel the 80:20 scheme, wherein out of every 100 units imported, 20 units have to be exported, should be revamped.
Several cases unearthed by agencies reveal that the scheme is being grossly misused by traders. Sources said the government is considering whether
to do away with the scheme and fix a quota for imports and de-linking it from exports or overhaul the scheme. The decision might come soon, as
imports are on the rise and the marriage season is round the corner, resulting in higher demand, especially when prices have fallen significantly. Gold
imports in September was $3.75 billion, at least $1 billion more than previous months and in October also imports were at an elevated level.
Technically market is getting support at 25853 and below same could see a test of 25743 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26130, a
move above could see prices testing 26297.
MCX Silver
05 DEC 2014
Open
35789
High
35810
Low
35340
Close
35495
% Cng
MCX Silver
OI
-1.24
19383
Volume
13265
Resist 3
36226
Resist 2
36018
Resist 1
35756
Support 1
35286
Support 2
35078
Support 3
34816
Silver settled down -1.24% at 35495 dipped modestly on Tuesday to hold near the lowest level in more than four years as optimism over the strength
of the U.S. economy and growing expectations that the Fed will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought weighed. Tracking a weak trend
overseas, silver prices moved down to settled at 35495 as speculators engaged in trimming positions. The exchange opened for the evening session
as it remained closed in the morning for 'Muharram'. Also a recent batch of better than expected U.S. economic data underlined the view that the
economy was gaining momentum and that interest rates could rise sooner rather than later. Bullion, which yields nothing and costs money to hold, is
seen as a less attractive investment during times of rising interest rates. Meanwhile the EU lowered its 2014 growth forecast for the euro zone earlier
Tuesday, citing the tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East along with a lack of investment. The agency said it now expects gross domestic product in
the single currency bloc to grow 0.8% this year, down from 1.2% growth it forecast this spring. In 2015, the euro zone economy will likely grow
1.1%, down from a previous forecast of 1.7%. In economic news from the U.S., a report from the Commerce Department showed trade deficit to
have widened much more than anticipated to $43.0 billion in Sept, from a revised $40.0 billion in August. According to another report from the
Commerce Department, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods dropped 0.6 percent in September, after tumbling 10.0 percent in August.
Technically market is under fresh selling and getting support at 35286 and below same could see a test of 35078 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 35756, a move above could see prices testing 36018.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
2
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Crude Oil
19 NOV 2014
Open
4951
High
4951
Low
4691
Close
4721
MCX Crude Oil
% Cng
-4.88
OI
16364
Volume
89230
Resist 3
5145
Resist 2
5048
Resist 1
4885
Support 1
4625
Support 2
4528
Support 3
4365
Crudeoil settled down -4.88% at 4721 tracking weakness on NYMEX Crude oil which plummeted to end at a three-year low on Tuesday for a fourth
straight session, plunged 2.0 percent to close at $77.19 a barrel after Saudi Arabia announced a cut in prices to buyers in the U.S. and ahead of the
official crude oil inventory data. The EC's cut to its growth forecast for the euro area and some soft trade and factory orders data from the U.S. also
weighed down the commodity. Crude prices continued to be under pressure on demand growth concerns with fears of a supply glut with higher OPEC
output in October and Saudi Arabia discounting prices to customers around the world. Last month, Saudi Arabia had announced a reduction in oil
prices for its customers in Asia and Africa. While data from industry group the API showed on Tuesday, crude inventories fell by 639kbls to 374.9mbls
in the week to Oct. 31, compared with markets expectations for a increase of 2.2mbls. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by
804,000 barrels. Also the OPEC meets Nov. 27, but there are no clear signs whether it will curb output. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez will meet on Wednesday on the sidelines of a climate conference, according to a person close to the Saudi delegation.
Meanwhile soft U.S. data and a EC move to cut growth forecasts added to the selloff by stoking concerns demand will remain soft while supply ample.
Technically market is under fresh selling and getting support at 4625 and below same could see a test of 4528 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 4885, a move above could see prices testing 5048.
MCX Natural Gas
24 NOV 2014
Open
247.6
High
256.6
Low
247.6
Close
255.6
% Cng
MCX Natural Gas
OI
3.57
5360
Volume
40302
Resist 3
268
Resist 2
262
Resist 1
259
Support 1
250
Support 2
244
Support 3
241
Naturalgas settled up 3.57% at 255.60 prices rallied to hit a fresh one-month high on Tuesday, as investors bet that chilly weather across the U.S.
will boost early-winter demand for the heating fuel. Updated weather-forecasting models called for unusually cold temperatures across the eastern
half of the U.S. from November 8 through November 17. Bullish speculators are betting on the chilly weather to increase early-winter demand for the
heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration's next storage report slated for release on Thursday is expected to show an increase of 80 billion cubic feet for the week
ending October 31. Inventories rose by 35 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 42 billion
cubic feet. Natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 87 billion cubic feet last week. Injections of gas into storage have surpassed the five-year average
for 28 consecutive weeks, alleviating concerns over tightening supplies. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.480 trillion cubic feet as of last
week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 8.2% from 9.1% in the preceding week and from a record 54.7% at the end of March.
Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.71% to settled at 5360 while prices up 8.8 rupee,
now Naturalgas is getting support at 250 and below same could see a test of 244.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 259, a move
above could see prices testing 262.3.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
3
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Copper
28 NOV 2014
Open
415.5
High
415.5
Low
408.4
Close
409.9
MCX Copper
% Cng
-1.67
OI
10333
Volume
19665
Resist 3
421
Resist 2
418
Resist 1
414
Support 1
407
Support 2
404
Support 3
400
Copper settled down -1.67% at 409.90 fell the most since mid-October after the European Commission cut growth forecasts for the euro area,
damping the demand outlook for industrial metals. Gross domestic product in the 18-nation region will rise 0.8% this year and 1.1% in 2015, down
from projections for 1.2% and 1.7% in May, the executive arm of the EU said. A gauge of six industrial metals traded in London headed for a second
straight annual loss for the first time since the recession in 2007-2008. An economic slowdown in China added to concern that demand for raw
materials will ebb. The EU also reduced its growth estimates for Germany, the world’s third-biggest copper consumer. China is the top user, followed
by the U.S. The US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the nation’s trade deficit widened 7.6% to USD 43 billion in September. US
exports slipped 1.5% to USD 195.59 billion, posting the biggest monthly fall in seven months, while imports amounted to USD 238.62 billion.
Meanwhile, the trade deficit with China expanded to as much as USD 35.6 billion in September when the US dollar index surged nearly 5%. Market
participants expect the US Federal Reserve to intervene in the foreign exchange market again should this trend persist. Markets are awaiting
comments by more policymakers. The European Commission lowered its projections for GDP growth in the euro zone from 1.2% to 0.8% this year
and from 1.7% to 1.1% in 2015. Meanwhile, the commission dropped its projections for unemployment rate from 11.8% to 11.6% this year and from
11.4% to 11.3% in 2015. Technically market is getting support at 407.1 and below same could see a test of 404.2 level, And resistance is now likely
to be seen at 414.2, a move above could see prices testing 418.4.
MCX Nickel
28 NOV 2014
Open
966.2
High
966.2
Low
934.8
Close
937.4
% Cng
-3.41
MCX Nickel
OI
4891
Volume
20507
Resist 3
988.8
Resist 2
977.5
Resist 1
957.4
Support 1
926.0
Support 2
914.7
Support 3
894.6
Nickel settled down -3.41% at 937.4 after the European Commission cut growth forecasts for the euro area, damping the demand outlook for metals.
LME nickel stocks are up 48 percent this year, showing that refined metal is available despite the ban on ore shipments by top exporter Indonesia
that sent prices soaring earlier in the year. The European Commission cut its 2014 growth forecast for the eurozone from 1.2 per cent to 0.8 per cent,
naming tensions in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East, and a lack of investment, as reasons behind the decision. Meanwhile, the commission
dropped its projections for unemployment rate from 11.8% to 11.6% this year and from 11.4% to 11.3% in 2015. The commission acknowledged
that the recovery in the euro zone economy was not only particularly weak as compared with other developed countries, but was also
underperforming compared with other post-crisis recoveries. Concerns over the euro zone economy restrained trading activity in commodities
markets. A gauge of six industrial metals traded in London headed for a second straight annual loss for the first time since the recession in 20072008. An economic slowdown in China added to concern that demand for raw materials will ebb. The EU also reduced its growth estimates for
Germany. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.67% to settled at 4891 while prices down 33.1 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 926 and below same could see a test of 914.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.4, a
move above could see prices testing 977.5.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
4
COMMODITY WORLD
MCX Zinc
28 NOV 2014
Open
142.25
High
142.25
Low
138.40
Close
138.70
% Cng
MCX Zinc
OI
-2.56
4341
Volume
11140
Resist 3
145.0
Resist 2
143.6
Resist 1
141.2
Support 1
137.4
Support 2
136.0
Support 3
133.6
Zinc settled down -2.56% at 138.7 as pressure seen on sluggish economic indicators from Europe. European Commission lowered its forecast of
economic growth and inflation for this and next year yesterday, depressing market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Commission lowered
forecast for EU and euro zone growth, citing growing geopolitical risk and weak global economy. The European Commission said the euro zone
economy will remain fragile for another one year and expects low inflation and high jobless rate in the single-currency union. European shares fell
across the board as a result. The US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the nation’s trade deficit widened 7.6% to USD 43 billion in
September. US exports slipped 1.5% to USD 195.59 billion, posting the biggest monthly fall in seven months, while imports amounted to USD 238.62
billion. Meanwhile, the trade deficit with China expanded to as much as USD 35.6 billion in September when the US dollar index surged nearly 5%.
Market participants expect the US Federal Reserve to intervene in the foreign exchange market again should this trend persist. LME zinc prices failed
to breach USD 2,330/mt, losing early gains and falling to USD 2,260/mt, and closing at USD 2,257/mt, down USD 54/mt or 2.34%. US non-farm
employment data scheduled for release today are expected to improve, which will help raise market sentiment. Technically market is under long
liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.57% to settled at 4341 while prices down -3.65 rupee, now Zinc is getting support
at 137.4 and below same could see a test of 136 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 141.2, a move above could see prices testing 143.6.
MCX Aluminium
28 NOV 2014
Open
128.35
High
128.35
Low
126.20
Close
126.95
MCX Aluminium
% Cng
-1.13
OI
8871
Volume
6745
Resist 3
130.3
Resist 2
129.3
Resist 1
128.2
Support 1
126.1
Support 2
125.1
Support 3
124.0
Aluminium settled down -1.13% at 126.95 as pressure seen due to negative economic data from the US. European Commission lowered its forecast
of economic growth and inflation for this and next year yesterday, depressing market sentiment. The European Commission lowered its projections
for GDP growth in the euro zone from 1.2% to 0.8% this year and from 1.7% to 1.1% in 2015. Projections for inflation in the single currency area
were cut from 0.8% to 0.5% this year and from 1.2% to 0.8% in 2015. The US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the nation’s trade
deficit widened 7.6% to USD 43 billion in September. US exports slipped 1.5% to USD 195.59 billion, posting the biggest monthly fall in seven
months, while imports amounted to USD 238.62 billion. Meanwhile, the trade deficit with China expanded to as much as USD 35.6 billion in
September when the US dollar index surged nearly 5%. Market participants expect the US Federal Reserve to intervene in the foreign exchange
market again should this trend persist. Three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell to USD 2,042.5/mt after opening at USD
2,073.8/mt on Tuesday, due to negative economic data from the US. Factory orders in the US fell 0.6% in September. The US trade deficit widened
in September as exports fell sharply. Finally, the light metal closed at USD 2,060/mt. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -9.33% to settled at 8871 while prices down -1.45 rupee, now Aluminium is getting support at 126.1 and below
same could see a test of 125.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 128.2, a move above could see prices testing 129.3.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
5
COMMODITY WORLD
Spread View
Commodity
Ratio Trading
Spread
Commodity
MCX GOLD DEC-FEB
183.00
Gold Silver ratio
MCX SILVER DEC-MAR
705.00
Gold Crude ratio
MCX CRUDEOIL NOV-DEC
33.00
Ratio
73.15
5.50
Gold Copper ratio
63.34
MCX NATURALGAS NOV-DEC
7.90
Silver Crude ratio
7.52
MCX ZINC NOV-DEC
0.65
Silver Copper ratio
86.59
MCX NICKEL NOV-DEC
7.90
Crude Natural Gas ratio
18.47
MCX LEAD NOV-DEC
1.05
Lead Zinc ratio
MCX ALUMINIUM NOV-DEC
0.15
LME Stock (Tons)
MCX CARDAMOM DEC-JAN
10.20
NCDEX DHANIYA DEC-JAN
282.00
Commodity
NCDEX JEERAUNJHA DEC-JAN
155.00
Copper
NCDEX TMCFGRNZM DEC-APR
840.00
Nickel
NCDEX CHILLI DEC-0
MCX CPO NOV-DEC
0.89
Change
Stock
162100
546
385860
0.00
Zinc
-3625
694600
9.20
Aluminium
-7650
4421150
MCX MENTHAOIL NOV-DEC
11.00
NCDEX RMSEED DEC-JAN
11.00
NCDEX SYBEANIDR DEC-JAN
54.00
NCDEX CHARJDDEL DEC-JAN
8.00
Lead
226550
News you can Use
China's services sector grew at its slowest pace in nine months in October as a cooling property sector weighed on demand, a survey showed, adding
to signs of fragility in the world's second-largest economy. The services sector has been more resilient than the manufacturing sector and is creating
more jobs, which partly explains why the government has so far refrained from more aggressive policy easing in supporting the slowing economy.
The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 53.8 in October from September's 54.0, which was the weakest reading since
January, the National Bureau of Statistics said. But it was still comfortably above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a
monthly basis. The sub-index of new orders inched up to 51.0 in October from September's 49.5, which was the lowest since December 2008. The
sub-index measuring employment fell to 48.9 in October - the fourth straight month when it was below 50, and was down from September's 49.5. An
official survey published on Saturday showed China's factory activity unexpectedly fell to a five-month low in October as firms fought slowing orders
and rising costs in the cooling economy, reinforcing views that the country's growth outlook is hazy at best.
The Government today slashed the import tariff value on gold to $391 per 10 gm and silver to $551 per kg following weak global price trends. During
the last fortnight, the tariff value on imported gold was fixed at $401 per 10 gm and on silver at $575 per kg. The import tariff value is the base price
at which customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. It is revised on a fortnightly basis taking into account global prices. The decrease in
tariff value on imported gold has been notified by the Central Board of Excise and Customs, an official statement said. Gold in New York, which
normally sets the price trend on the domestic front, fell by 2.3 per cent to $1,171.60 per ounce and silver by 1.73 per cent to $16.18 per ounce. In
the national Capital, gold prices are ruling at Rs. 26,550 per 10 gm, while silver is at Rs. 36,250 per kg. Gold is the second largest import item for
India after petroleum. Gold import increased for the second straight month to 95 tonnes in September ahead of the festival season. The Government
has imposed several restrictions to curb imports to contain the current account deficit (CAD). The import duty on gold was increased thrice to a
record 10 per cent last year and it was made mandatory to export 20 per cent of the imported gold.
Personal spending in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department, with
the drop in spending accompanied by weaker than expected personal income growth. The Commerce Department said personal spending dipped by
0.2 percent in September after climbing by 0.5 percent in August. The modest pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected personal
spending to inch up by 0.1 percent. Real spending, which is adjusted to remove price changes, also slipped 0.2 percent in September following a 0.5
percent increase in the previous month. Additionally, the report said personal income edged up by 0.2 percent in September following a 0.3 percent
increase in August. Economists had expected income to rise by another 0.3 percent. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal
current taxes, inched up by a more modest 0.1 percent in September compared to a 0.3 percent increase in the previous month. Real disposable
income was nearly unchanged. The drop in spending combined with the increase in disposable income resulted in an uptick by the personal savings
rate, which rose to 5.6 percent in September from 5.4 percent in August.
Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
6
COMMODITY WORLD
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Commodity Research, Alpha Commodities
Email: [email protected]
Page No
7