1. food and drink
2. food
3. grains and pasta

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CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS
November 21, 2014
Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division
Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch
Director: Steve Lavergne
Deputy Director: Fred Oleson
This report is an update of the October outlook report for crop year 2014-15 in Canada. The quality of the crop is
the major concern for 2014 although production is expected to be near-normal. Due to a return to relatively normal
yields, crop production for 2014 is dramatically smaller than the record harvest of 2013. Average yields across all
crops in 2014 are expected to average about 18% lower than last year when the weather during the growing season
and harvest was unusually good. In western Canada, harvest was mostly complete by the end of October while, in
eastern Canada, the harvest of soybeans was nearing completion but the corn harvest was just beginning. The
quality of the crop in western Canada will be a major concern for 2014 due to excess rain in late August and early
September and the lateness of the harvest. In eastern Canada, the quality of the corn crop has also been lowered
because of excess moisture.
The production of field crops in Canada for the 2014-15 crop year is estimated at 76 (Mt), 22% lower than last year
due to lower average yields. Although production is significantly lower than last year, it is about 3% above the
five-year (2008-12) average of 74 Mt. Despite high carry-in stocks, supply and carry-out stocks are forecast to
decrease significantly. The supply-side estimates in this report are dependent on Statistics Canada’s (STC) October
3 report on area, yield and production which was based on a survey of farmers, conducted during the early part of
September. The outlook will be revised after the estimates of Principal Field Crop Production are revised by
Statistics Canada (STC) on December 4, 2014.
Despite high carry-in stocks, the supply of Grains and Oilseeds (G&O) and the supply of Pulses and Special Crops
(P&SC) in Canada are each expected to decrease by about 10% compared to 2013. Due to lower yields, the
production of G&O is estimated to decrease to 70 Mt from 90 Mt in 2013 while the production of P&SC is
estimated to decrease to 6.1 Mt from 6.9 Mt in 2013. Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease slightly due
to lower supply and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease significantly.
In general, abundant world grain supplies are expected to continue to pressure world prices, but a weaker Canadian
dollar, which is anticipated to remain at a discount of 10 to 15 percent to the US dollar, is expected to provide some
support to prices in Canada. In general grain prices are expected to decrease slightly from the 2013-14 level but
durum prices are expected to be very strong due to strong demand and relatively low global supply.
Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition
Area
Area
Seeded
Harvested
Yield
-------- thousand hectares -------- t/ha
Total Grains And Oilseeds
2012-2013
26,455
25,694
2.76
2013-2014
26,847
26,115
3.46
2014-2015f
25,741
24,350
2.87
Total Pulse And Special Crops
2012-2013
3,047
2,990
1.90
2013-2014
2,844
2,816
2.44
2014-2015f
3,418
3,186
1.92
All Principal Field Crops
2012-2013
29,502
28,684
2.67
2013-2014
29,690
28,930
3.36
2014-2015f
29,159
27,536
2.76
Total
Total
Domestic
Carry-out
Production
Imports
Supply
Exports
Use
Stocks
-------------------------------------- thousand metric tonnes -------------------------------------71,040
90,293
69,959
1,018
1,101
1,773
82,455
100,345
88,706
36,935
43,421
41,310
36,570
39,950
38,901
8,951
16,974
8,495
5,677
6,880
6,110
141
141
128
7,066
7,660
6,866
4,954
5,237
5,200
1,472
1,806
1,296
640
628
370
76,716
97,173
76,068
1,160
1,241
1,901
89,521
108,005
95,572
41,889
48,659
46,510
38,042
41,756
40,197
9,591
17,602
8,865
Source: Statistics Canada, f: forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Page 1 of 8
ALL WHEAT
DURUM
For 2014-15, Canadian durum production is estimated
to decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 4.76 Mt as a result
of a 4% decrease in seeded area, higher abandonment
and a 22% decrease in average yields. Saskatchewan
and Alberta account for 86% and 14%, respectively, of
Canadian production. The average grade quality of the
Canadian durum crop is significantly lower than that of
2013-14 and from the past five year average. The
average protein content is higher than for 2013-14 and
higher than for the past five year average. Supply is
estimated to decrease by 14% as higher carry-in stocks
partly offset the fall in production. Exports are forecast
to decrease by 7% due to lower supply and the lower
average quality of the Canadian durum crop. Carry-out
stocks are forecast to fall by 45% to a low of 1.0 Mt.
Crop year average Canadian producer prices for durum
are forecast to increase from 2013-14 due to lower
world and Canadian supply and lower carry-out stocks,
and the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar. The
largest price increases are expected for high grade
durum because of a limited supply. Prices have
increased significantly since the end of July.
World durum production is estimated to decrease by
4.4 Mt from 2013-14 to 33.3 Mt, the lowest since 200102, primarily due to lower production for Canada.
Supply is estimated to decrease by 3.7 Mt to 40.6 Mt as
the lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in
stocks. Use is expected to fall by 0.9 Mt, mostly in the
feed market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 2.5
Mt to 4.5 Mt, the lowest since 1999-2000. US durum
production is estimated to fall by 9% to 1.44 Mt due to
lower yields.
WHEAT (excluding durum)
For 2014-15, Canadian wheat production is estimated to
decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 22.7 Mt due to 8%
lower seeded area, higher abandonment and a 17%
decline in average yields. Canadian winter wheat
production is estimated to fall by 26% to 2.8 Mt, with a
29% decrease for eastern Canada and a 22% decline for
western Canada. Spring wheat production is estimated
to fall by 27% to 19.9 Mt, with a 28% decrease for
Saskatchewan, 25% for Alberta and 32% for Manitoba.
Spring wheat production is estimated to fall only
marginally for British Columbia and rise by 15% for
eastern Canada. Saskatchewan accounts for 41% of the
total wheat production, Alberta for 35%, Manitoba for
15%, Ontario for 7.5% and other provinces for 1.5%.
The quality of the wheat crop in western Canada is
significantly lower than last year for all classes and
significantly lower than the past five year average
except for Canada Prairie Spring wheat which is mostly
produced in areas which had more favourable weather.
The quality of hard red spring wheat (CWRS) is
variable depending on weather conditions in the
growing area, with about 75-80% in the top three
grades. The average protein content for CWRS is higher
than for 2013-14 and near the past five year average.
The worst average grade quality is for winter and soft
white spring wheat classes. The quality of wheat in
eastern Canada is near average.
Statistics Canada did not provide production estimates
for classes of spring wheat, but based on an analysis of
the area seeded by class and provincial yield estimates,
the decreases in production were as follows: 27% for
hard red spring wheat to 16.3 Mt, 8% for Canada
Prairie Spring wheat to 1.77 Mt, 42% for soft white
spring wheat to 1.28 Mt, 18% for general purpose
wheat to 0.37 Mt and 11% for extra strong wheat to
0.2 Mt.
Winter wheat production, mostly hard red winter and
soft red winter with some soft white winter, is estimated
to account for 12% of the total wheat production. The
production of hard red spring wheat is expected to
account for 72% of the total wheat production, similar
to 2013-14, Canada Prairie Spring for 8%, soft white
spring for 5.5%, general purpose for 1.5% and extra
strong for 1%.
Supply is estimated to decrease by 12%, as lower
production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to decrease by 2% from 2013-14 to
18 Mt, as growing demand in the world food market is
expected to be more than offset by the lower supply and
lower average quality of Canadian wheat. Carry-out
stocks are forecast to fall by 47% to a low 4.2 Mt.
The average crop year producer price in Canada for
higher quality milling wheat is forecast to be higher
than for 2013-14 because of the lower Canadian supply
and the weaker Canadian dollar. Prices for high quality
milling wheat have increased since the end of July.
However, the average crop year producer prices for
lower quality milling wheat and feed wheat are
expected to be lower than for 2013-14 because of the
record world wheat supply and because of lower corn
prices, respectively.
Page 2 of 8
World all wheat (including durum) production is
estimated to increase by 5 Mt to a new record of
720 Mt. Supply is estimated to rise by 16 Mt to 906 Mt,
as higher carry-in stocks compound the increase in
production. Total use is forecast to rise by 9 Mt to
713 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by
7 Mt to 193 Mt.
plains. Production is estimated to fall for hard red
winter, soft red winter and white wheat, but increase by
13% for hard red spring wheat. Domestic use is
expected to fall because of lower feed use. Exports are
forecast to decrease due to lower supply and more
competition in world markets. Carry-out stocks are
forecast to increase by 1.5 Mt to 17.5 Mt.
US wheat production is estimated to decrease by 3 Mt
to 55.1 Mt, as a 3% higher harvested area is more than
offset by lower yields due to drought in the southern
Stan Skrypetz: Wheat Analyst
[email protected]
COARSE GRAINS
BARLEY
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to have
decreased by 16% and harvested area to have decreased
by 20%, each a record low levels from 2013-14.
Production is estimated to decrease 30% to 7.1 million
tonnes (Mt), a record low level, due to the smaller area
and a return to near average yields. A near doubling of
carry-in stocks will help cushion the production decline
but total supply decreases by 20% to near record low
levels. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease by 8%
due mainly to a decrease in livestock feeding on the
prairies and softer industrial use. Total exports are
forecast to decrease by 16% due to the lower total
supply, a lower than average malt barley selection rate
and softer world barley trade. Carryout stocks are
forecast to decrease sharply to a record low level.
Despite the tight stock situation, the Lethbridge feed
barley price is forecast to decrease from 2013-14 due to
the overall decline in North American and world coarse
grain prices.
Throughout most of October, the price of feed barley
was higher than the price of feed wheat at Lethbridge.
The Lethbridge barley price had been able to post small
price gains due to low deliveries. Prices at Lethbridge
are increasing as end users build inventory for the
upcoming cattle-feeding season. Feeder cattle are
coming off summer pasture and entering the feedlot
system for finishing.
Due to poor quality and limited supplies in 2014, malt
barley prices are showing a very strong premium to
feed barley, of about $90/t versus a long-term average
of about $40/t in the Canadian market. The strong malt
premium is a North American based market factor this
year, as the spread in the EU and Australian markets
has been much lower.
With the smaller barley crops and quality issues in
North America, there is the possibility of higher than
average malt barley imports into Canada and the US
with the likely source being the EU or even Australia.
Sprouting is the major concern as it adversely affects
germination rates, critical in the malting process.
Maltsters can, and will, adjust their tolerances to accept
lower quality malting barley but that reduces the
amount of malt produced. It is interesting to note that
as the number of craft breweries expands so does the
need for malt barley as the craft brews generally require
more malt per batch. Despite the problems, the world
does seem to have enough barley as in the past two
years, the world barley stocks-to-use ratio has grown
from 16.5 to 19.6 expected for 2014-15.
CORN
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to decrease by
15% and harvested area to decrease by 17%, both
below the previous five-year average. Production is
estimated to decrease by 20% from 2013-14 due to the
smaller area and a return to slightly above the previous
five-year average yield. Imports are forecast to increase
to 1.2 Mt due to the decline in domestic supply along
with quality and bushel weight concerns. Carry-in
stocks are essentially unchanged from the previous year
but the reduced production will cause total supply to
decrease by 12%. Following the lower total supply,
total domestic use is forecast to decrease as feed
demand declines due to lower livestock numbers and
only trend gains in industrial use. Exports are forecast
to decrease significantly from the record highs in
2013-14 due to lower Canadian supply and large crops
in other major corn exporting countries. Carryout stocks
are forecast to decrease significantly and fall to a multiyear low of 0.7 Mt or about half the previous ten-year
average. The Chatham in-store elevator price is
forecast to decrease due to the large US and world corn
crops in 2014. The price decline will be somewhat
Page 3 of 8
offset by the forecasted Canadian dollar exchange rate
for the 2014-15 crop year which support corn prices in
Canada.
Ontario and Quebec, the main corn producing provinces
in Canada, had much slower harvest progress than the
US. The late spring seeding, cool summer temperatures
and wet fall conditions have created a long, drawn out
harvest with quality, bushel weight and maturity
concerns. It is anticipated that the eastern Canadian
corn harvest pace will remain below average, in what is
being described as the worst harvest conditions in many
years, as producers will purposely leave corn in the
fields to dry naturally and avoid high drying costs.
So far this crop year, the lack of new crop supplies has
encouraged corn imports from the US at a rate that is
much higher than the previous three-year average.
With the slow pace of Canadian new crop supplies, the
Chatham nearby basis has been well-above the average
of the previous 3 years. So far this fall, this basis
strength has been seen in the offers for new crop in the
Chicago December 2015 contract. The late harvest in
Eastern Canada reduced the opportunity to plant winter
wheat for the 2015-16 crop year, so that the area seeded
to corn and soybeans may increase. For October, nearby
US corn futures had been able to gain about 15%
despite the projections for record US corn yields and
production. However, as the US corn harvest nears
completion these gains should reverse. The slow pace
of harvest and producer selling along with good export
results were price supportive. Some of the buoyancy
has been due to speculation from equity funds which
has re-entered the commodities markets.
OATS
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to decrease by
15% to a record low and a near record low harvested
area is estimated to decrease by 20% from 2013-14.
Production is estimated to decrease 31% to 2.7 Mt due
to the decline in area and a return to just slightly above
average yields. However, due to the high level of carryin stocks, the lower production will cause total supply
to decrease by 16% and remain below the previous fiveyear average. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease
14% to a near-record low level mainly due to a drop in
feed use related to larger supplies of feed quality cereal
grains and North American corn supplies. Exports are
forecast to decrease 5% due to the tight supply, higher
US oat production and quality issues affecting the
amount of milling quality oats that will be available on
the prairies. Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease
sharply to 0.6 Mt and remain below the previous fiveyear average.
In October, the futures price for oats recovered in a
fashion similar to the US corn futures. However,
seasonal price patterns are retracing some of those gains
as end buyers have increased stocks. During the last
quarter of 2013-14, Canadian oat exports to the US
were higher than the previous five-year average and this
helped re-build US commercial stocks into the start of
2014-15. The US oats futures prices are continuing to
hold a strong premium to the US corn futures,
averaging over US $100/t to corn so far in 2014-15.
As with malting barley, there are quality concerns
regarding this year’s prairie oat crop and end users will
have to adjust their requirements for an acceptable oat.
Sprouting is a major concern as bushel weight and
storability is compromised; visual imperfections will
not be discounted as heavily as in years with a more
normal grade pattern.
RYE
For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to decrease by
2% from 2013-14 and harvested area is estimated to
decrease by 16% both are new record lows. Production
is estimated to decrease by 26% to near record lows due
to the smaller area combined with below average yields.
Despite slightly higher carry-in stocks, total supply is
forecast to decrease by 20% due to the sharp drop in
production and fall to the second lowest level on record.
Total domestic usage is forecast to decrease by 16% to
a new record level as the smaller total supply will limit
feed and industrial use. Exports are forecast to decrease
by 8% due to the very tight supply and remain well
below the previous five-year average. Carryout stocks
are forecast to decrease to record low levels.
Canadian rye exports increased to their highest level
since last October 2013 as the limited new crop supplies
became available; however, total exports are about 40%
lower when compared to the same period vs. the
previous five-year average. Due to low Canadian rye
production, imports of rye may increase. Small
tonnages of rye have been imported in the past mainly
from the US with lesser amounts from Germany and
Sweden. In 2014-15, due to low supply in the US,
imports would be sourced from the EU. As there is a
stipulation that Canadian rye whiskey must be made
from Canadian rye, imported rye would likely go into
the milling market offsetting the supply required for the
distilling industry.
John Pauch: Coarse Grains Analyst
[email protected]
Page 4 of 8
OILSEEDS
CANOLA
For 2014-15, Canadian canola production is estimated
to fall by 22% from 2013-14 to 14.1 Mt as a marginal
rise in seeded area is offset by sharply higher
abandonment and a 19% drop in average yields.
Saskatchewan accounts for almost 50% of expected
canola production while Alberta and Manitoba account
for 35% and 15%, respectively.
Supply is estimated to decrease by 11% as lower
production more-than offsets the major increase in
carry-in stocks. Canola is moving smoothly through the
handling system with 29% of the crop, 2.96 Mt,
delivered into licensed handling facilities as of week 26
of the crop year, as reported by the Canadian Grain
Commission. For 2013-14, shipments to the same date
were 16% of output or 2.9 Mt.
For 2014-15, exports are forecast to decline by 8% on
comparatively tight domestic supplies and competition
from record high world supplies of oilseeds and
vegetable oils. China, Japan, Mexico and the United
States are forecast to account for the majority of
Canadian exports for 2014-15.
Domestic crush of canola is forecast to increase by 2%
on support from a strong early season crush pace,
relatively attractive crush margins and adequate canola
supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by
62%, to 0.9 Mt for a relatively tight stocks-to-use ratio
of 6%. The price of canola is forecast to decrease by
almost 11%, to a range of $455-485/t, under pressure
from lower world soyoil and palm oil prices and
burdensome world oilseed supplies with some
offsetting support provided by a weaker Canadian
dollar.
Canadian canola prices are heavily influenced by
developments in the world vegetable oil market. For
2014-15, world vegetable oil production is forecast to
rise by 4%, to 177 Mt, by the USDA. The industry is
becoming increasingly concentrated with the top 4
vegetable oils (palm , soybean, canola-rape and
sunflowerseed) accounting for 86% of total vegetable
oil output. The largest growth in the sector is expected
from palm oil, up 6% and soyoil, up 5%.
For 2014-15, world trade in vegetable oils is forecast at
79 Mt, up 4%, with palm oil holding a 63% share.
Domestic usage is expected to increase at nearly the
same rate as production, resulting in a 4% rise in carry-
out stocks, to 19 Mt. The large supplies and carry-out
of vegetable oils on the world market are expected to
pressure prices, with the Decatur simple average cash
price of soyoil estimated at US34.00 to 38.00 cents a
pound versus the 39.67 cents a pound in 2013-14 and
49.72 cents a pound in 2012-13.
FLAXSEED (excluding solin)
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
27% to the highest level since 2006-07 on a rise in
seeded area which more than offsets higher
abandonment and lower yields. By province,
Saskatchewan accounts for 82% of domestic
production, followed by Alberta at 12% and Manitoba
at 6%. Supply is up by 27% as higher carry-in stocks
supplement the rise in production.
Exports are forecast to rise by 30% on anticipated
stronger buying from China and the European Union.
Shipments to the European Union are expected to be
limited by competition from increased supplies of
Kazakhstan and Russian linseed. Total domestic use of
flaxseed is forecast to rise by 9% while carry-out stocks
rise by 25%.
Flaxseed prices are forecast to fall to $465-495 a tonne,
and could fall more significantly given the burdensome
world oilseed supplies.
Worldwide, linseed production is forecast at 2.6 Mt, up
from 2.2 Mt in 2013-14. Canada is the world’s largest
producer of flaxseed-linseed followed by Kazakhstan at
0.4 Mt, Russia at 0.32 Mt and China at 0.31. World
trade is forecast at 1.4 Mt with Canada accounting for
57% of the total. World crush is forecast at 2.1 Mt, up
from 1.9 Mt in 2012-13 on increased processing in the
EU-28, China and the US. World carry-out of flaxseedlinseed is forecast at slightly under 0.4 Mt for 2014-15.
SOYBEANS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
11%, setting a new record, as an increase in planted
area offsets a drop in yields. Ontario accounts for 60%
of production, followed by Manitoba at 18%, Quebec
17%, Saskatchewan 3% and a minor level in the
Maritimes. Supplies of soybeans are forecast to rise by
11% on the sharp rise in production, steady carry-in
stocks and slightly higher imports.
Domestic crush is forecast to rise by about 4% while
exports are up over 20% to 4.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks
Page 5 of 8
are expected to rise slightly while prices drop sharply,
down 25% to $380-420/t, under pressure from
burdensome world supplies. The weaker Canadian
dollar is expected to provide some offsetting support.
Soybean prices are heavily influenced by soymeal
prices, for 2014-15, world supplies of soybean meal are
expected to be burdensome following an expected
record world production 198 Mt, up 10 Mt from 201314. By country, China is the world’s largest producer
of soybean meal followed by the US, Argentina and
Brazil. Combined, these countries account for almost
80% of world soybean meal production.
Word trade is expected to rise to 64 Mt, up 7% from
last year, with Argentina, Brazil and the Unites States
being the largest exporters and the European Union,
Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand the 4 largest
importers. The growth in world usage of soymeal is
expected to match the rise in world production resulting
in only a minor rise in carry-out stocks to slightly above
10 Mt. The 4 largest consumers of soymeal in the world
are China, the European Union, the United States and
Brazil.
Chris Beckman: Oilseed Analyst
[email protected]
PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS
DRY PEAS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to fall by 11% to
3.5 Mt, as higher harvested area has been offset by
lower yields and high abandonment, particularly in
Saskatchewan. Yellow pea production is forecast to fall
sharply from last year to nearly 2.7 Mt, while green pea
production is expected to rise sharply to 0.8 Mt.
Production of the other remaining dry pea types is
expected to fall marginally to less than 50 thousand
tonnes (kt). Supply is forecast to fall by only 7% to
nearly 3.9 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are
forecast to rise to 2.9 Mt, and as of September, India,
Bangladesh and China are Canada’s top three markets.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease due to higher
exports and lower domestic use. The average price is
expected to decrease from 2013-14.
During the month of October, the on-farm price of
yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose about $5/t while the
green pea price increased by $20/t. This was largely due
the record export pace in August and September. The
other factor is the quality of the Canadian dry pea crop
and current indications of a decrease in the supply of
No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian dry peas when compared
to last year. Green dry peas prices are expected to
maintain a premium of C$85/t over yellow dry peas,
which is above the historical average, but below the
C$160/t premium green peas had over yellow peas last
year.
US area seeded to dry peas for 2014-15 is forecast by
the USDA to increase by 8% from last year. This is
largely due to an estimated increase in area in Montana
and North Dakota. Yields are expected to be average
and US dry pea production is forecast by USDA to rise
by 8% to 0.78 Mt. The main markets for US dry peas
are China and India, similar to Canada.
LENTILS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to decrease by
19% to 1.8 Mt. Despite higher harvested area, lentil
production fell due to lower yields and higher
abandonment. Production of large green lentils is
forecast to decrease sharply from last year to 0.4 Mt,
while red lentil production is expected to be similar to
last year at 1.2 Mt. Production of the other remaining
lentil types is expected to decrease to just over 0.1 Mt.
Supply is expected to decrease by 22% due to lower
production. Exports are expected to be limited by
supply to 1.6 Mt. To-date, India, Turkey, the EU-27
and United Arab Emirates are the top export markets.
Domestic use is expected to decrease, but remain above
historical levels due to expectations of a below average
grade distribution. Carry-out stocks are forecast to
decrease sharply for the third consecutive year. The
overall average price is forecast to rise above 2013-14
due to an expected fall in carry-out stocks.
During the month of October, the on-farm
Saskatchewan large green lentil price rose about
C$110/t while red lentil prices increased by C$15/t.
This was largely due to the quality of the Canadian
lentil crop and currently indications point to a decrease
in the supply of No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian lentils for
2014-15 when compared to last year. Large green lentil
prices are forecast to maintain a premium over red lentil
prices, compared to a C$10/t discount to red lentil
prices in 2013-14.
Page 6 of 8
For 2014-15, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the
USDA at 0.3 mln acres, down 12% from 2013-14 due
to lower area seeded in Montana. Assuming normal
yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US lentil production
is therefore forecast by AAFC to fall below 0.2 Mt,
down 19% from 2013-14. The main US export markets
for lentils to-date are India and the EU-27.
DRY BEANS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by
26% to 292 thousand tonnes (kt). This includes 98 kt of
white pea bean types and 194 kt of colored bean types.
Production in Ontario increased sharply, mostly due to
a rise in area for both bean types. In Manitoba,
production rose for white pea bean types and fell for
colored bean types.
Supply is forecast to rise by only 8%, due to very low
carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall and be
limited by the lower supply. As of August and
September the EU-27 and the US are the top two
markets, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and
countries in Africa. Carry-out stocks are also expected
to increase. The average Canadian dry bean price is
forecast to fall due to the larger North American supply.
US area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to
increase sharply to nearly 1.5 mln acres, mostly due to
larger area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean
production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the
USDA to increase to nearly 1.2 Mt, up 21% from 201314. The largest increases are expected to come from the
black, pinto and navy bean classes. US export markets
continue to be Canada, EU-27 and Mexico.
CHICKPEAS
For 2014-15, production is estimated to fall sharply to
141 kt, due to lower yield estimates. Production of desi
types is expected to decrease marginally while kabuli
chickpea production is expected to fall sharply
compared to last year. However, due to large carry-in
stocks from the previous year, supply is forecast to rise
by 16%. Exports are forecast to increase from 2013-14,
and as of August and September, the EU-27, the US are
the top two markets with smaller amounts going to the
Middle East including Jordan and Israel. Carry-out
stocks are expected to decrease but remain burdensome.
The average price is forecast to decline, for the third
consecutive year, due to higher world and Canadian
supply.
The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at a
record 0.22 mln acres, up 4% from 2013-14. This is
largely due to higher area seeded in Montana.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US
chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at a record
0.16 Mt, marginally higher than 2013-14.
MUSTARD SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise by 15% to
179 kt. Higher abandonment and lower yield estimates
reduced production from earlier forecasts. Production of
all of the three major types of mustard (yellow, brown
and oriental) are expected to increase. Supply, however,
is forecast to fall marginally, due to lower carry-in
stocks. Exports are expected to be marginally lower
than last year at 135 kt and as of August and
September, the US and the EU-27 are the top two
markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be tight for the
second consecutive year. The average price is forecast
to be lower than 2013-14, due competition from the
Black Sea region for the EU-27 market.
CANARY SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise by only 6%
to 139 kt, as sharply higher harvested area was partly
offset by lower yields. Supply, however, is forecast to
decrease by 9% as higher production was more than
offset by low carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to
be limited by the lower supply. As of August and
September, Mexico and the EU-27 are the top two
export markets, followed by Brazil and the US. Carryout stocks are expected to remain low and be supportive
for prices. The average price is forecast to rise from
last year due to the limited supply.
SUNFLOWER SEED
For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise by nearly
45% to 75 kt, due to higher estimated yields and
harvested area. Supply, however, is expected to
increase by only 12% to 105 kt, compared to 2013-14,
due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to
decrease and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The
US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market
for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to fall
from 2013-14 due to an expected increase in North
American carry-out stocks.
US sunflower seed production for 2014-15 is forecast
by the USDA at just over 1.1 Mt, up sharply from 201314 and largely due to higher production in North
Dakota. Production of oil type varieties is estimated by
AAFC to have risen to above 0.8 Mt and the production
of confectionery type varieties is estimated by AAFC to
have risen sharply to nearly 0.3 Mt. US supply is
forecast by the USDA to rise to 1.3 Mt. As a result,
exports and domestic use are estimated to increase.
Despite this, US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are
expected to rise and pressure North American prices.
Page 7 of 8
For 2014-15, the world supply of sunflower seed is
estimated by the USDA at a near record 45.3 Mt. This
is 3% below last year, but still the second highest on
record, despite lower production in Russia and Ukraine.
As a result, world domestic use is expected to decrease
marginally but world exports are forecast to increase by
3%. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by
26% to 2.4 Mt.
Bobby Morgan: Pulse and Special Crop Analyst
204-259-4149
[email protected]
Page 8 of 8
CANADA: GRAINS AND OILSEEDS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION
November 21, 2014
Food &
Feed,
Total
Grain and Crop
Area
Area
Total
Industrial Waste & Domestic Carry-out Average
Year (a)
Seeded Harvested Yield Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (c) Use (d)
Stocks
Price (g)
Dockage
Use (e)
---------- thousand ha --------------------------------------------------------------------t/ha
thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------$/t
Durum
2012-2013
1,894
1,878
2.46
4,627
36
6,149
4,245
232
325
751
1,152
290
2013-2014
2,009
1,997
3.26
6,505
5
7,662
5,073
244
344
776
1,813
220
2014-2015f
1,932
1,868
2.55
4,756
5
6,574
4,700
250
401
874
1,000
305-335
Wheat Except Durum
2012-2013
7,736
7,619
2.96
22,579
38
27,063
15,333
3,224
3,724
7,830
3,900
285
2013-2014
8,616
8,444
3.67
31,025
50
34,975
18,401
3,341
4,442
8,592
7,982
205
2014-2015f
7,886
7,478
3.04
22,731
50
30,763
18,000
3,350
4,397
8,563
4,200
200-230
All Wheat
2012-2013
9,630
9,497
2.86
27,205
74
33,211
19,578
3,456
4,049
8,581
5,052
2013-2014
10,626
10,441
3.59
37,530
55
42,637
23,474
3,586
4,786
9,368
9,795
2014-2015f
9,818
9,346
2.94
27,486
55
37,337
22,700
3,600
4,798
9,437
5,200
Barley
2012-2013
2,997
2,751
2.91
8,012
19
9,227
2,184
127
5,683
6,059
983
279
2013-2014
2,866
2,652
3.86
10,237
9
11,229
2,390
183
6,522
6,915
1,924
188
2014-2015f
2,408
2,134
3.34
7,120
18
9,062
2,000
150
6,002
6,362
700
155-185
Corn
2012-2013
1,434
1,418
9.21
13,060
507
14,933
1,728
5,315
6,325
11,655
1,549
257
2013-2014
1,493
1,480
9.59
14,194
575
16,318
1,918
5,165
7,728
12,906
1,494
169
2014-2015f
1,262
1,234
9.23
11,397
1,200
14,091
1,000
5,200
7,175
12,391
700
135-165
Oats
2012-2013
1,165
985
2.86
2,812
18
3,635
2,134
84
804
995
506
263
2013-2014
1,284
1,113
3.51
3,906
29
4,441
2,209
85
1,023
1,201
1,031
281
2014-2015f
1,091
885
3.04
2,686
20
3,737
2,100
84
852
1,037
600
225-255
Rye
2012-2013
140
123
2.73
337
0
362
193
46
68
123
46
155
2013-2014
109
87
2.57
223
0
269
120
40
52
100
49
170
2014-2015f
107
73
2.27
165
0
215
110
36
40
85
20
165-195
Mixed Grains
2012-2013
101
58
2.93
170
0
170
0
0
170
170
0
2013-2014
105
54
2.87
156
0
156
0
0
156
156
0
2014-2015f
93
47
3.00
142
0
142
0
0
142
142
0
Total Coarse Grains
2012-2013
5,836
5,334
4.57
24,391
545
28,325
6,239
5,571
13,050
19,002
3,085
2013-2014
5,857
5,386
5.33
28,715
613
32,413
6,637
5,473
15,481
21,278
4,498
2014-2015f
4,961
4,373
4.92
21,510
1,238
27,246
5,210
5,470
14,210
20,016
2,020
Canola
2012-2013
8,912
8,799
1.58
13,869
128
14,704
7,305
6,717
35
6,810
588
650
2013-2014
8,070
8,009
2.24
17,966
66
18,620
9,094
6,979
124
7,162
2,363
503
2014-2015f
8,095
7,817
1.80
14,080
125
16,568
8,400
7,100
117
7,268
900
455-485
Flaxseed
2012-2013
397
384
1.27
489
15
640
481
n/a
n/a
89
71
580
2013-2014
425
418
1.73
724
14
809
616
n/a
n/a
93
100
510
2014-2015f
635
607
1.52
922
5
1,027
800
n/a
n/a
102
125
465-495
Soybeans
2012-2013
1,680
1,679
3.03
5,086
258
5,575
3,332
1,541
351
2,088
156
532
2013-2014
1,869
1,860
2.88
5,359
353
5,867
3,600
1,527
292
2,049
218
530
2014-2015f
2,231
2,208
2.70
5,961
350
6,528
4,200
1,600
278
2,078
250
380-420
Total Oilseeds
2012-2013
10,989
10,863
1.79
19,444
400
20,919
11,118
8,258
385
8,987
814
2013-2014
10,364
10,287
2.34
24,049
432
25,295
13,310
8,506
416
9,305
2,681
2014-2015f
10,961
10,632
1.97
20,962
480
24,123
13,400
8,700
395
9,448
1,275
Total Grains and Oilseeds
2012-2013
26,455
25,694
2.76
71,040
1,018
82,455
36,935
17,284
17,484
36,570
8,951
2013-2014
26,847
26,115
3.46
90,293
1,101
100,345
43,421
17,565
20,683
39,950
16,974
2014-2015f
25,741
24,350
2.87
69,959
1,773
88,706
41,310
17,770
19,403
38,901
8,495
(a) Crop year is August-July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September-August.
(b) Imports exclude products.
(c) Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products.
(d) Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes food and
industrial use for flaxseed due to data confidentiality.
(e) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling
(g) Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan
producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash,
I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track
Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham).
f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Source: Statistics Canada
CANADA: PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION
November 21, 2014
Total
Grain and Crop
Area
Area
Total
Domestic Carry-out Stocks-to- Average
Year (a)
Seeded Harvested
Yield Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (b) Use (c)
Stocks
Use Ratio Price (d)
---------- thousand
-----------------------------------------------------------ha ---------- t/ha
thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------%
$//t
Dry Peas
2012-2013
1,509
1,475
2.26
3,341
16
3,622
2,650
798
174
5
340
2013-2014
1,345
1,329
2.98
3,961
25
4,160
2,779
1,072
309
8
260
2014-2015f
1,589
1,488
2.37
3,529
15
3,853
2,900
828
125
3
230-260
Lentils
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
1,018
1,060
1,267
1,004
1,052
1,166
1.53
2.07
1.51
1,538
2,173
1,756
9
9
10
2,407
2,489
1,935
1,638
1,755
1,600
461
565
285
307
169
50
15
7
3
440
445
520-550
Dry Beans
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
127
100
140
125
100
136
2.26
2.32
2.14
281
232
292
79
70
70
365
332
367
297
304
300
38
23
27
30
5
40
9
2
12
835
995
800-830
Chickpeas
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
81
77
73
80
76
71
2.02
2.33
1.99
161
177
141
9
9
8
181
240
279
69
48
90
59
62
64
54
130
125
42
118
81
690
500
460-490
Mustard Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
136
148
188
135
146
172
0.88
1.06
1.04
119
155
179
1
2
0
203
193
189
120
138
135
47
45
44
36
10
10
22
5
6
790
775
680-710
Canary Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
136
85
121
132
85
115
1.14
1.54
1.20
150
131
139
0
0
0
167
153
139
137
164
130
8
N/A
4
22
N/A
5
15
N/A
4
585
500
515-545
41
28
41
40
28
38
2.19
1.89
1.95
87
52
75
27
25
25
121
94
105
44
49
45
60
40
45
17
5
15
16
6
17
635
645
575-605
Total Pulses and Special Crops (c)
2012-2013
3,047
2,990
2013-2014
2,844
2,816
2014-2015f
3,418
3,186
1.90
2.44
1.92
5,677
6,880
6,110
141
141
128
7,066
7,660
6,866
4,954
5,237
5,200
1,472
1,806
1,296
640
628
370
Sunflower Seed
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015f
(a) Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed,
sunflower seed).
(b) Imports and exports exclude products.
(c) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling. Total domestic use is
calculated residually.
(d) Producer price, FOB plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.