CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch Director: Steve Lavergne Deputy Director: Fred Oleson This report provides an update of AAFC’s September outlook report for the 2014-15 crop year. The supply-side estimates run-off Statistics Canada’s October 3 report on area, yield and production, which was based on a survey of farmers, conducted during the early part of September. Due to a return to relatively normal yields, the 2014 crop is dramatically smaller than the record harvest which occurred in 2013. Average yields across all crops in 2014 are expected to average about 18% lower than last year when the weather during the growing season and harvest was unusually good. Due to the decline in yields, total crop production in Canada is forecast to decrease by 22% to 76.1 Mt. Although a significant decrease in production is estimated, it must be noted that production is still about 3% above the five-year (2008-12) average of 73.8 Mt. Despite high carry-in stocks, supply and carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease significantly. The production of Grains and Oilseeds (G&O) in Canada is estimated at 70 Mt versus 90 Mt in 2013. Supply is expected to decrease by about 10% despite high carry-in stocks. Exports and domestic use are forecast to decrease slightly due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to be about half of last year’s level. The production of Pulses and Special Crops (P&SC) in Canada is estimated to decrease by 12% to 6.1 Mt as significantly lower yields more-than offset higher area seeded. However, supply is expected to decrease by 10% due to high carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease significantly due to lower production of peas and lentils. Exports are forecast to be similar to last year. The quality of the crop in western Canada will be a major concern for 2014 due to excess rain in late August and early September and the lateness of the harvest. In general, abundant world grain supplies are expected to continue to pressure world prices, but a weak Canadian dollar, which is anticipated to remain at a discount of about 10% to the US dollar, is expected to provide some support to prices in Canada. In general grain prices are expected to decrease slightly from the 2013-14 level but durum prices are expected to be very strong due to strong demand and relatively low global supply. Canada: Principal Field Crops Supply and Disposition Total Area Area Total Domestic Carry-out Seeded Harvested Yield Production Imports Supply Exports Use Stocks -------- thousand hectares -------t/ha -------------------------------------- thousand metric tonnes -------------------------------------Total Grains And Oilseeds 2012-2013 26,455 25,694 2.76 71,040 1,018 82,455 36,935 36,570 8,951 2013-2014 26,847 26,115 3.46 90,293 1,001 100,245 43,421 39,750 17,074 2014-2015f 25,741 24,350 2.87 69,959 1,773 88,806 41,810 38,601 8,395 Total Pulse And Special Crops 2012-2013 3,047 2,990 1.90 5,677 141 7,066 4,954 1,472 640 2013-2014 2,844 2,816 2.44 6,880 141 7,660 5,237 1,806 628 2014-2015f 3,418 3,186 1.92 6,110 118 6,856 5,105 1,296 455 All Principal Field Crops 2012-2013 29,502 28,684 2.67 76,716 1,160 89,521 41,889 38,042 9,591 2013-2014 29,690 28,930 3.36 97,173 1,141 107,905 48,659 41,556 17,702 2014-2015f 29,159 27,536 2.76 76,068 1,891 95,662 46,915 39,897 8,850 Source: Statistics Canada, f: forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Page 1 of 7 ALL WHEAT DURUM For 2014-15, Canadian durum production is estimated to decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 4.76 Mt as a result of a 4% lower seeded area, higher abandonment and a 22% decrease in average yields. Saskatchewan accounts for 86% of the Canadian estimated production and Alberta for 14%. Supply is estimated to decrease by 14% as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the fall in production. Exports are forecast to decrease by 1% as industry’s ability to respond to strong demand in export markets will be limited by the lower Canadian supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 55% to a low 0.8 Mt. Crop year average Canadian producer prices for durum are forecast to increase from 2013-14 due to lower world and Canadian supply and lower carry-out stocks, and the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar. Prices have increased since the end of July. World durum production is forecast to decrease by 4 Mt from 2013-14 to 33.7 Mt, the lowest since 2001-02, primarily due to lower production for Canada. Supply is forecast to decrease by 3.3 Mt to 41 Mt as the lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Use is expected to fall by 0.8 Mt, mostly in the feed market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 2.5 Mt to 4.8 Mt, the lowest since 1999-2000. US durum production is estimated to fall by 2% to 1.554 Mt due to lower yields. WHEAT (excluding durum) For 2014-15, Canadian wheat production is estimated to decrease by 27% from 2013-14 to 22.7 Mt due to 8% lower seeded area, higher abandonment and a 17% decline in average yields. Canadian winter wheat production is estimated to fall by 26% to 2.8 Mt, with a 29% decrease for eastern Canada and a 22% decline for western Canada. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall by 27% to 19.9 Mt, with a 28% decrease for Saskatchewan, 25% for Alberta and 32% for Manitoba. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall only marginally for British Columbia and rise by 15% for eastern Canada. Saskatchewan accounts for 41% of the total wheat production, Alberta for 35%, Manitoba for 15%, Ontario for 7.5% and other provinces for 1.5%. Statistics Canada did not provide production estimates for classes of spring wheat, but based on an analysis of the area seeded by class and provincial yield estimates, the decreases in production were as follows: 27% for hard red spring wheat to 16.3 Mt, 8% for Canada Prairie Spring wheat to 1.77 Mt, 42% for soft white spring wheat to 1.28 Mt, 18% for general purpose wheat to 0.37 Mt and 11% for extra strong wheat to 0.2 Mt. Winter wheat production, mostly hard red winter and soft red winter with some soft white winter, is estimated to account for 12% of the total wheat production. The production of hard red spring wheat is expected to account for 72% of the total wheat production, similar to 2013-14, Canada Prairie Spring for 8%, soft white spring for 5.5%, general purpose for 1.5% and extra strong for 1%. Supply is estimated to decrease by 12%, as lower production is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Domestic use is expected to fall by 4% due to lower feed use resulting from the lower supply. Exports are forecast to increase only slightly from 2013-14 to 18.5 Mt as growing demand in the world food market is expected to be mostly offset by the lower Canadian supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 50% to a low 4 Mt. Average crop year Canadian producer prices for higher quality milling wheat are forecast to be the same as for 2013-14. Support from lower supply in the US and Canada, and the forecast for a weaker Canadian dollar, is expected to be offset by the record world supply. Price premiums for protein are expected to be higher than for 2013-14 due to lower supply of high protein wheat. Prices for high quality milling wheat have increased since the end of July. However, crop year average producer prices of lower quality milling wheat and feed wheat are expected to be lower than for 201314 because of the record world wheat supply and because of lower corn prices, respectively. World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast to increase by 6 Mt to a new record of 721 Mt. Supply is forecast to rise by 17 Mt to 907 Mt, as higher carry-in stocks compound the increase in production. Total use is forecast to rise by 10 Mt to 714 Mt. Carryout stocks are forecast to increase by 7 Mt to 193 Mt. US wheat production is estimated to decrease by 2.7 Mt to 55.4 Mt, as a 3% higher harvested area is more than offset by lower yields due to drought in the southern plains. Production is estimated to fall for hard red winter, soft red winter and white wheat, but increase by Page 2 of 7 14% for hard red spring wheat. Domestic use is expected to fall because of lower feed use. Exports are forecast to decrease due to lower supply and more competition in world markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 1.8 Mt to 17.8 Mt. Stan Skrypetz: Wheat Analyst [email protected] COARSE GRAINS BARLEY For 2014-15, area seeded and harvested decreased to a record low level from 2013-14 mainly due to higher prices for alternative crops. Production is estimated to decrease 30% to 7.1 million tonnes (Mt), a record low, due to lower area and yields. Although a near doubling of carry-in stocks will help cushion the production decline, total supply decreases by 20% to near record low levels. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 8% due mainly to a decrease in livestock feeding on the prairies and softer industrial use. Total exports are forecast to decrease by 16% due to the lower total supply, a lower than average malt barley selection rate and softer world barley trade. Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease to a record low level. Despite the tight stock situation, domestic feed barley prices are forecast to decrease from 2013-14 due to the overall decline in world coarse grain prices. Barley harvest progress remains behind average across the prairies as late seeding and wet conditions had slowed crop development and harvest operations. As in the US barley belt, which runs across the northern US states, barley on the prairies was subject to wet conditions from late August into September. These less than favourable conditions produced sprouting, mildew and staining problems in the barley and this will limit the amount of new crop malt barley available for 201415. In 2013-14, malt barley quality and selection rates were the best in many years so there is the potential for higher than average carryover of malt barley stocks. Malt barley prices will enjoy a stronger than average premium over feed barley values due the limited supplies. World barley production is expected to decrease by 4.54% as below average crops in Argentina, Australia, Canada and the US more than offset good crops in the EU, Russia and Ukraine. Although carry-in stocks are abundant, world barley feed and industrial use and overall trade are forecast to decrease. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 3% and remain above the previous three-year average. The strong supply of world corn will pressure feed barley prices around the world. The world malt barley price premium has rebounded to values not seen since 201011 after posting slow but steady gains over the last two crop years. CORN For 2014-15, seeded area and harvested area are estimated to decrease by 15% and 17%, respectively, both of which are below the previous five-year average. Production is estimated to decrease by 20% from 201314 due to the smaller area and a return to near-average yields. Imports are forecast to increase dramatically to 1.2 Mt due to the decline in domestic supply. The carryin stocks are essentially unchanged from the previous year but the reduced production will cause total supply to decrease by 12%. Due to the lower total supply, total domestic use is forecast to decrease by 2% as feed demand declines due to lower livestock numbers and only trend gains in industrial use. Exports are forecast to decrease significantly from the record highs in 201314 due to lower Canadian supply and large crops in the worlds other major corn exporting countries. As well, carryout stocks are forecast to decrease significantly and fall to a low of 0.8 Mt or about half the previous ten-year average. The Chatham in-store elevator price is forecast to decrease with the potentially large North American and world corn crop on the way in 2014. The current and forecasted Canadian dollar exchange rate for the 2014-15 crop year will support Canadian corn prices. Corn yields are estimated to be slightly above the previous five-year average. Despite the less than ideal weather throughout the growing season in Eastern Canada, they were able to achieve slightly higher yields than the previous average. For Manitoba and Alberta, the yields are slightly below average after a slow start last spring and a general lack of heat units. The major decline in production is due to lower area as US corn prices declined throughout last year. The USDA released their September Grain Stocks report and they were in line with the market expectations of higher 2013-14 US corn stocks as of September 1. The main contributor to the higher ending stocks estimate was the 29% increase in production for Page 3 of 7 2013. Even with US total use increasing by over 22%, the market was not able to absorb all of that corn. For 2014-15, despite slow crop development and harvest progress the US will more than likely produce a new corn yield and production record and see their ending stocks increase to over two billion bushels or nearly 51 million tonnes. The result has been US corn prices declining by 50% from two years ago. US corn is the world and North American price leader and has caused the entire coarse grain price complex to decline. Without a major production problem in one or more of the large producing countries next crop year coarse grain prices will remain depressed for the next couple of years. OATS For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to have decreased by 15% to a record low and the near record low harvested area is estimated to decrease 20% from 2013-14. Production is estimated to decrease 31% to 2.7 Mt due to the decrease in area and a return to just slightly above average yields. However, due to high level of carry-in stocks, the lower production will cause total supply to decrease by 16% and remain below the previous five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease 14% or to near record low levels mainly due to a drop in feed use related to larger supplies of feed quality cereal grains and North American corn supplies. Exports are forecast to decrease 5% due to the tight supply, a USDA forecast for higher US oat production and quality issues affecting the amount of milling quality oats that will be available on the prairies. Carryout stocks are forecast to decrease sharply 0.6 Mt. and remain below the previous five-year average. Despite tight North American oat supplies, the CBOT nearby futures value is forecast to decline with the potentially record North American and world corn crop on the way in 2014. The current and forecasted Canadian dollar exchange rate for the 201415 crop year will be price supportive for Canadian oat prices. The production of oats is estimated to decrease by 31% due to below yields and low levels of seeded and harvested areas. Oat harvest progress on the Prairies remains behind average as late seeding and wet conditions had slowed crop development and harvest operations. Oats on the prairies and the Northern US states were subject to wet conditions from August and into September. These less than favourable conditions produced sprouting problems in the oats and this will limit the supply of milling quality oats for 2014-15. In the USDA September Grain Stocks report, US oat stocks were over 15% than at the same time last year, with off-farm or commercial stocks being over 24% larger. Higher US oat production in 2014-15 and good levels of Canadian oat exports into the US milling market were the contributors. In the September USDA Small Grains Summary, 2014 US oats achieved higher harvested area and yield than in 2013. This represents the fourth lowest production on record and third lowest area harvested for grain on record. Total production is about 10% less than earlier USDA projections and as with the Canadian Prairies; there are quality concerns for milling type oats. RYE For 2014-15, seeded area is estimated to decrease by 2% from 2013-14 and harvested area is estimated to decrease by 16% both are new record lows. Production is estimate to decrease by 26% to near record lows due to the smaller area combined with below average yields. Despite slightly higher carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to decrease by 20% due to the sharp drop in production and fall to the second lowest level on record. Total domestic usage is forecast to decrease by 16% to a new record level as the smaller total supply will limit feed and industrial use. Exports are forecast to decrease by 8% due to the very tight supply and remain well below the previous five-year average. Carryout is forecast to decrease to record low levels, as stocks continue to be drawn down. Price prospects for 2014-15 remain good, as the very tight supply situation will put a floor under rye despite the general price decline across the coarse grain complex. Demand continues to be very good for rye going into the spirits industry. With record low area and below average yields, production is less than half of what it was two year ago and is only half of the previous ten-year average. In the last five years, just one fall has been favourable for the planting of rye and the late harvest of 2014 will again limit the amount of area that could have been seeded to rye. The small crop combined with quality issues will see high-grade rye command strong premiums this crop year. The USDA Small Grains Summary for 2014 estimated US rye production to be 6% lower than in 2013-14, mainly due to an overall decrease in seeded area. The two largest rye states, Georgia and Oklahoma, saw their combined production decline by over 60%. Seeded and harvested area declines in Georgia and a very poor, drought affected crop in Oklahoma. With smaller rye crops in both Canada and the US, North American Page 4 of 7 production is forecasted to be 8% lower than in 2013 continuing the tight supply situation. In September, Ontario based Bioindustrial Innovation Canada received $7 million dollars from the federal government for the development of environmentally friendly bio products. The goal is to bridge the gap between research and market-ready products by connecting technology development projects from across Canada. Part of the research includes developing new varieties of rye, triticale and wheat used to produce high-value biochemical and bioenergy products. John Pauch: Coarse Grains Analyst [email protected] OILSEEDS CANOLA For 2014-15, Canadian canola production is estimated to fall by 22% from 2013-14 to 14.1 Mt as a marginal rise in seeded area is offset by sharply higher abandonment and a 19% drop in average yields. Saskatchewan accounts for 49% of expected canola production while Alberta and Manitoba account for 35% and 15%, respectively. Supply is estimated to decrease by 11% as lower production more-than offsets the major increase in carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline by 8% on comparatively tight domestic supplies and competition from record high world supplies of oilseeds and vegetable oils. Domestic crush of canola is forecast to increase by 2% on support from a strong early season crush pace, relatively attractive crush margins and adequate canola supplies. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 62%, to 0.9 Mt for a relatively tight stocks-to-use ratio of 6%. The price of canola is forecast down by almost 11%, to a range of $430-470/t, under pressure from lower world soyoil and palmoil prices and burdensome world oilseed supplies with some offsetting support provided by a weaker Canadian dollar. World canola production is forecast at 70.7 Mt, down slightly from the record of 71.1 Mt as the decrease in Canadian production was mostly offset by increased output in China, India and the European Union. World supplies of canola-rapeseed are forecast to rise by about 3% as the increase in carry-in stocks more than offsets the slight drop in production. World trade is forecast to decline on a drop in Canadian shipments while China, Japan and the European Union remain the major importers of canola-rapeseed. World crushing of canola-rapeseed is forecast to rise on increased European, Canadian and Indian processing which more than offset a drop in Chinese crush. World carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 9% to a record high 6.8 M on an increase in European stocks. FLAXSEED (excluding solin) For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by 27% to the highest level since 2006-07 on a rise in seeded area which more than offsets higher abandonment and lower yields. By province, Saskatchewan accounts for 82% of domestic production, followed by Alberta at 12% and Manitoba at 6%. Supply is up by 27% as higher carry-in stocks supplement the rise in production. Exports are forecast to rise by 30% on anticipated stronger buying from China and the European Union. Shipments to the European Union are expected to be limited by competition from increased supplies of Kazakhstan and Russian linseed. Total domestic use of flaxseed is forecast to rise by 9% while carry-out stocks rise by 25%. Flaxseed prices are forecast to fall to $470-510 a tonne, and run a serious risk of falling significantly given the burdensome world oilseed supplies. Worldwide, linseed production is forecast at 2.6 Mt, up from the 2.2 Mt in 2013-14. Canada is the world’s largest producer of flaxseed-linseed followed by Kazakhstan at 0.4 Mt, Russia at 0.32 Mt and China at 0.31. World trade is forecast at 1.4 Mt with Canada accounting for 57% of the total. World crush is forecast at 2.1 Mt, up from 1.9 Mt in 2012-13 on increased processing in the EU-28, China and the US. World carry-out of flaxseed-linseed is forecast at slightly under 0.4 Mt for 2014-15. SOYBEANS For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by 11%, setting a new record, as an increase in planted area offsets a drop in yields. By province, Ontario is the largest soybean growing province, accounting for 60% of production, followed by Manitoba at 18%, Quebec 17%, Saskatchewan 3% and a minor level in the Maritimes. Supplies of soybeans are forecast to rise by 11% on the sharp rise in production, steady carry-in stocks and slightly higher imports. Domestic crush is Page 5 of 7 forecast to rise by about 4% while exports are up over 20% to 4.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise slightly while prices drop sharply, down 30% to $350390/t, under pressure from burdensome world supplies. The weaker Canadian dollar is expected to provide some offsetting support. For 2014-15, world supplies of soybeans are expected to be burdensome following an expected record US harvest of 106 Mt in combination with expected record Brazil and Argentine production of 94 Mt and 55 Mt, respectively. World crushing of soybeans is forecast to rise by 5% to a record 252 Mt on increased processing in China, Argentina and assorted other countries. World trade in soybeans is forecast at a record 115 Mt, up slightly from the 113 Mt shipped in 2013-14, primarily increased Chinese imports. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 35% to a record 90 Mt and these large stocks are expected to pressure world soybean prices until at least the end of 2015-16, assuming steady planted area and trend yields. Chris Beckman: Oilseed Analyst [email protected] PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS DRY PEAS For 2014-15, production is estimated to decrease by 11% to 3.5 Mt, the third largest dry pea crop. The higher harvested area has been offset with high abandonment and lower yields, particularly in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 2.0 Mt of the dry pea production, Alberta over 1.4 Mt, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba and British Columbia. Supply is expected to decrease but exports are forecast to increase to 2.8 Mt, with India, China and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall due to higher exports but lower domestic use. The average price is expected to fall from 2013-14. During the month of September, Saskatchewan green pea farmgate prices fell about C$20/t while yellow pea farmgate prices were unchanged. This was largely because of concerns about the quality of the Canadian dry pea crop and an expectation that there will be an increase in Canadian green pea production for 2014-15. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a premium of C$75/t over yellow dry peas, which are above the historical average, but well below the C$165/t premium green peas had over yellow peas last year. In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2014-15 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 8% from 2013-14. This is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to increase by 8% to 0.78 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to common Canadian exports markets in China and India and it is expected the US will continue to its expand its market share in 2014-15. LENTILS For 2014-15, production is estimated to fall by 19% to below 1.8 Mt. This is largely due to estimates for lower yields and high abandonment, which has more than offset higher harvested area. Large green production is forecast to fall from last year to over 0.4 Mt, while red lentil production is expected to be unchanged at 1.2 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to fall to just over 0.1 Mt. Supply is expected to fall by 22% due to lower carry-in stocks and production. Exports are expected to be limited to 1.6 Mt, but India, the EU-27 and Turkey are expected to remain the top three export markets. Domestic use is forecast to fall, but remain above historical levels, due to expectations of a below average grade distribution. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply for the third consecutive year. The overall average price is forecast to be higher than 2013-14 due to tight carry-out stocks. Large green lentil prices are forecast to maintain a premium over red lentil prices, compared to a C$30/t discount to red types in 2013-14. In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2014-15 is forecast by the USDA at 0.3 mln acres, down 12% from 2012-13 due to lower area seeded in Montana. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC to fall below 0.2 Mt, down 19% from 2013-14. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be India and the EU-27. DRY BEANS For 2013-14, production is estimated to rise by 26% to 0.29 Mt, consisting of 98 kt of white pea bean types and 194 kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario is expected to rise sharply mostly due to a higher in area for both bean types. In Manitoba, production is Page 6 of 7 estimated to have risen for white bean types. This is forecast to be partly offset by lower production for colored types when compared to 2013-14. Supply is forecast to increase by only 8%, due to tight carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease marginally due to expectations for lower exports to the US. The US and the EU-27 are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations that Canada will continue to expand its market share in the Middle East and Africa. Carry-out stocks are also expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease due to higher supply in North America. In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 26% to 1.5 mln acres, largely due to higher area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, up 20% from 2013-14. US export markets are expected to continue to be the EU-27, Mexico and Canada. CHICKPEAS For 2014-15, production is estimated to decrease by 20% to 141 kt, largely due to lower yields. Production for desi types is expected to fall marginally while kabuli chickpea production is also expected to fall sharply compared to 2013-14. However, supply is forecast to rise by 16% from last year due to the near record carryin stocks. Exports are forecast to rise from 2013-14, with the EU-27, the US, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent expected to remain the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall but remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to decline, for the third consecutive year, despite improved world demand. US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at a record 0.22 mln acres, up 4% from 2013-14. This is largely due to higher area seeded in the state of Montana. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2013-14 US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at a record 0.16 Mt, slightly higher than 2014-15. MUSTARD SEED For 2014-15, production is estimated to increase by 15% to 179 kt as an increase in harvested area was partly offset by lower yields and higher abandonment. Production of all three major types of mustard, yellow, brown and oriental are expected to rise. However, supply is forecast to fall marginally, due to tight carryin stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to last year at 135 kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to remain unchanged. The US and the EU-27 are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2013-14 due to the ample world supply. CANARY SEED For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise by 6% to 139 kt, due to sharply higher harvested area. This was partly offset by lower yields and higher abandonment. However, supply is forecast to fall as higher production is more than offset by tight carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to fall due to a rationing of domestic supply. The EU-27 and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets, followed by South America and the US. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is forecast to increase from the 2013-14 level due to limited supply and solid world demand. SUNFLOWER SEED For 2014-15, production is estimated to rise sharply to 75 kt, due to higher estimated yields and harvested area. Supply, however, is expected to rise by only 12% to 105 kt, compared to 2013-14, due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be relatively unchanged and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to rise from 2013-14 as higher prices for confectionery sunflower seed more than offset lower prices for oilseed types. Area seeded to sunflower in the US is estimated by the USDA at 1.7 mln acres, up 8% from 2013-14 and largely due to higher area in North Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties increased marginally to 1.34 mln acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties rose sharply to 0.37 mln acres. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2014-15 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to increase by 26% to 1.16 Mt. The global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a near record of 40.5 Mt. This is 6% lower than last year due to decreased area and yields in Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. As a result, world domestic use is expected to fall marginally but world exports are forecast to rise by 6%. World carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 22% to a more comfortable level of 2.6 Mt, and may provide some support for world sunflower seed prices. Bobby Morgan: Pulse and Special Crop Analyst [email protected] Page 7 of 7 CANADA: GRAINS AND OILSEEDS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION October 17, 2014 Food & Feed, Total Grain and Crop Area Area Total Industrial Waste & Domestic Carry-out Average Year (a) Seeded Harvested Yield Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (c) Use (d) Dockage Use (e) Stocks Price (g) ---------- thousand ha --------------------------------------------------------------------t/ha thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------$/t Durum 2012-2013 1,894 1,878 2.46 4,627 36 6,149 4,245 232 325 751 1,152 290 2013-2014 2,009 1,997 3.26 6,505 5 7,662 5,073 244 344 776 1,813 220 2014-2015f 1,932 1,868 2.55 4,756 5 6,574 4,700 250 428 874 1,000 255-285 Wheat Except Durum 2012-2013 7,736 7,619 2.96 22,579 38 27,063 15,333 3,224 3,724 7,830 3,900 285 2013-2014 8,616 8,444 3.67 31,025 50 34,975 18,401 3,341 4,442 8,592 7,982 205 2014-2015f 7,886 7,478 3.04 22,731 50 30,763 18,500 3,350 4,087 8,263 4,000 190-220 All Wheat 2012-2013 9,630 9,497 2.86 27,205 74 33,211 19,578 3,456 4,049 8,581 5,052 2013-2014 10,626 10,441 3.59 37,530 55 42,637 23,474 3,586 4,786 9,368 9,795 2014-2015f 9,818 9,346 2.94 27,486 55 37,337 23,200 3,600 4,515 9,137 5,000 Barley 2012-2013 2,997 2,751 2.91 8,012 19 9,227 2,184 127 5,683 6,059 983 279 2013-2014 2,866 2,652 3.86 10,237 9 11,229 2,390 183 6,522 6,915 1,924 188 2014-2015f 2,408 2,134 3.34 7,120 18 9,062 2,000 150 6,002 6,362 700 150-180 Corn 2012-2013 1,434 1,418 9.21 13,060 507 14,933 1,728 5,315 6,325 11,655 1,549 257 2013-2014 1,493 1,480 9.59 14,194 475 16,218 1,918 5,165 7,528 12,706 1,594 169 2014-2015f 1,262 1,234 9.23 11,397 1,200 14,191 1,000 5,200 7,175 12,391 800 135-165 Oats 2012-2013 1,165 985 2.86 2,812 18 3,635 2,134 84 804 995 506 263 2013-2014 1,284 1,113 3.51 3,906 29 4,441 2,209 85 1,023 1,201 1,031 281 2014-2015f 1,091 885 3.04 2,686 20 3,737 2,100 84 852 1,037 600 215-245 Rye 2012-2013 140 123 2.73 337 0 362 193 46 68 123 46 155 2013-2014 109 87 2.57 223 0 269 120 40 52 100 49 170 2014-2015f 107 73 2.27 165 0 215 110 36 40 85 20 165-195 Mixed Grains 2012-2013 101 58 2.93 170 0 170 0 0 170 170 0 2013-2014 105 54 2.87 156 0 156 0 0 156 156 0 2014-2015f 93 47 3.00 142 0 142 0 0 142 142 0 Total Coarse Grains 2012-2013 5,836 5,334 4.57 24,391 545 28,325 6,239 5,571 13,050 19,002 3,085 2013-2014 5,857 5,386 5.33 28,715 513 32,313 6,637 5,473 15,281 21,078 4,598 2014-2015f 4,961 4,373 4.92 21,510 1,238 27,346 5,210 5,470 14,210 20,016 2,120 Canola 2012-2013 8,912 8,799 1.58 13,869 128 14,704 7,305 6,717 35 6,810 588 650 2013-2014 8,070 8,009 2.24 17,966 66 18,620 9,094 6,979 124 7,162 2,363 503 2014-2015f 8,095 7,817 1.80 14,080 125 16,568 8,400 7,100 117 7,268 900 430-470 Flaxseed 2012-2013 397 384 1.27 489 15 640 481 n/a n/a 89 71 580 2013-2014 425 418 1.73 724 14 809 616 n/a n/a 93 100 510 2014-2015f 635 607 1.52 922 5 1,027 800 n/a n/a 102 125 470-510 Soybeans 2012-2013 1,680 1,679 3.03 5,086 258 5,575 3,332 1,541 351 2,088 156 532 2013-2014 1,869 1,860 2.88 5,359 353 5,867 3,600 1,527 292 2,049 218 530 2014-2015f 2,231 2,208 2.70 5,961 350 6,528 4,200 1,600 278 2,078 250 350-390 Total Oilseeds 2012-2013 10,989 10,863 1.79 19,444 400 20,919 11,118 8,258 385 8,987 814 2013-2014 10,364 10,287 2.34 24,049 432 25,295 13,310 8,506 416 9,305 2,681 2014-2015f 10,961 10,632 1.97 20,962 480 24,123 13,400 8,700 395 9,448 1,275 Total Grains and Oilseeds 2012-2013 26,455 25,694 2.76 71,040 1,018 82,455 36,935 17,284 17,484 36,570 8,951 2013-2014 26,847 26,115 3.46 90,293 1,001 100,245 43,421 17,565 20,483 39,750 17,074 2014-2015f 25,741 24,350 2.87 69,959 1,773 88,806 41,810 17,770 19,120 38,601 8,395 (a) Crop year is August-July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September-August. (b) Imports exclude products. (c) Exports include grain products, while excluding oilseed products. (d) Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Total number excludes food and industrial use for flaxseed due to data confidentiality. (e) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling (g) Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham). f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Source: Statistics Canada CANADA: PULSES AND SPECIAL CROPS SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION October 17, 2014 Total Grain and Crop Area Area Total Domestic Carry-out Stocks-to- Average Yield Production Imports (b) Supply Exports (b) Use (c) Year (a) Seeded Harvested Stocks Use Ratio Price (d) ---------- thousand -----------------------------------------------------------ha ---------- t/ha thousand metric tonnes -----------------------------------------------------------% $//t Dry Peas 2012-2013 1,509 1,475 2.26 3,341 16 3,622 2,650 798 174 5 340 2013-2014 1,345 1,329 2.98 3,961 25 4,160 2,779 1,072 309 8 260 2014-2015f 1,589 1,488 2.37 3,529 15 3,853 2,800 828 225 6 230-260 Lentils 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f 1,018 1,060 1,267 1,004 1,052 1,166 1.53 2.07 1.51 1,538 2,173 1,756 9 9 10 2,407 2,489 1,935 1,638 1,755 1,600 461 565 285 307 169 50 15 7 3 440 445 500-530 Dry Beans 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f 127 100 140 125 100 136 2.26 2.32 2.14 281 232 292 79 70 60 365 332 357 297 304 300 38 23 27 30 5 30 9 2 9 835 995 820-850 Chickpeas 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f 81 77 73 80 76 71 2.02 2.33 1.99 161 177 141 9 9 8 181 240 279 69 48 90 59 62 64 54 130 125 42 118 81 690 500 460-490 Mustard Seed 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f 136 148 188 135 146 172 0.88 1.06 1.04 119 155 179 1 2 0 203 193 189 120 138 135 47 45 44 36 10 10 22 5 6 790 775 700-730 Canary Seed 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f 136 85 121 132 85 115 1.14 1.54 1.20 150 131 139 0 0 0 167 153 139 137 164 130 8 N/A 4 22 N/A 5 15 N/A 4 585 500 510-540 41 28 41 40 28 38 2.19 1.89 1.95 87 52 75 27 25 25 121 94 105 44 49 50 60 40 45 17 5 10 16 6 11 635 645 655-685 Total Pulses and Special Crops (c) 2012-2013 3,047 2,990 2013-2014 2,844 2,816 2014-2015f 3,418 3,186 1.90 2.44 1.92 5,677 6,880 6,110 141 141 118 7,066 7,660 6,856 4,954 5,237 5,105 1,472 1,806 1,296 640 628 455 Sunflower Seed 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015f (a) Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). (b) Imports and exports exclude products. (c) Total Domestic Use = Food and Industrial Use + Feed Waste & Dockage + Seed Use + Loss in Handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually. (d) Producer price, FOB plant, average over all types, grades and markets. f: forecast, by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Source: Statistics Canada and industry consultations.
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