Week 46 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Weekly Dry Bulk Report Week 22 CAPESIZE HIGHLIGHTS Capesize: Quiet start, market softening throughout the week Panamax: A softer sentiment settled over the market this week Monday quiet as usual, the market was restarting after the weekend. In the Pacific, Rio Tinto appeared to be the only miner looking for tonnage. For estimated time of arrival 24- 28 November in Dampier, Rio Tinto took 2 vessels, one Louis Dreyfus relet at US$9.60/mt and one ship from EON at US$9.50/mt. Throughout the weekend fresh enquiries were almost nonexistent. Late Wednesday, BHP took 2 vessels at US$9/mt, estimated time of arrival in West Australia early PANAMAX L&S INDEX OF DRY BULK STOCKS* 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Week in 2014 A softer sentiment settled in the market this week with rates edging lower in most segments. The Pacific continued to soften slightly; TC rates for short rounds were dipping under the US$10 000/d line, although spot/prompt tonnage was seeing much better rates. For East Coast Australia a Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal to China was fixed at US$12 000/d, the ship opening in Yeosu (South Korea) promptly. The Pacific market continued to soften throughout the week. Owners with prompt May 30th December. The bids for Tubarao-Qingdao were pretty much non-existent early on Monday although the afternoon picked up with Vale taking 3 ships for end November- 10. December dates. 2014 All were reported done at US$24.50/mt. With the market softening throughout the week, Vale late Tuesday/early Wednesday took 2 vessels for 1 -10 Dec at US$22.25/mt and another for 5-14 December at US$22.10/mt. Capesize Timecharter Average (TCA) US$/day 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 5 Yr Low 5 Yr High tonnage in South East Asia were still able to fix Indonesian coal voyages, a 75 000 dwt vessel was taken from Vietnam via Indonesia to East Coast India at US$11 000/d. 5 Yr Avg 2014 Ytd Front haul saw a very quiet start to the week with few or no deals completed, both for US Gulf and East Coast South America. Transatlantic business included a 77,000 dwt vessel taken from Portugal for a coal Panamax Timecharter Average (TCA) US$/day 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 5 year Low 5 year High 2014 ytd 5 year average *Basket of stocks for L&S Index includes: Golden Ocean Group Ltd., Western Bulk ASA, Scorpio Bulkers Inc., Paragon Shipping Inc., Baltic Trading Ltd., Diana Shipping Inc., DryShips Inc., Safe Bulkers Inc., and Star Bulk Carriers Corp. 1 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- SUPRAMAX/HANDY Markets in both basins remained relatively flat on the week. In the Pacific basin routes on Supra sizes were showing some signs of edging up slightly, however over all the Indices finished just below last weeks levels. Handysizes rates showed little change on the previous week. There was little reported activity on period requirements. In the Atlantic, Supramax routes remained relatively flat on the week with indices for Front haul routes basically unchanged and The Baltic Exchange Dry Index Weekly Baltic Average BCI Weekly Baltic Average BPI Weekly Baltic Average BSI Weekly Baltic Average BHI Weekly BDI Average FFA Calendar 15 BCI Calendar 15 BPI Calendar 15 BSI Bunker Prices Rotterdam IFO 380 Rotterdam MGO Singapore IFO 380 Singapore MGO with transatlantic rounds show- Med areas had a more upward ing around mid US$9 000 levels. trend throughout the week. On the Handysize, the overall index was only slightly down on the week, however Handysize vessels in the Continent/Baltic/ Supramax Timecharter Average (TCA) US$/day 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 5 year Low 5 year High 2014 ytd Week 5 year average Last Week This Week 26,137 23,313 9,761 9,141 9,270 9,153 6,688 6,572 1455 1345 Trend Softening Softening Softening Softening Softening (US$/day) (US$/day) (US$/day) Last Week This Week 16,496 14,990 8,918 8,681 9,137 9,081 Trend Softening Softening Softening (US$/mt) (US$/mt) (US$/mt) (US$/mt) Last Week This Week 453 444 731 741 468 484 734 747 Trend Softening Firming Firming Firming (US$/day) (US$/day) (US$/day) (US$/day) 2 -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- BCI FFA US$/day 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 26000 24000 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Cal 15 5 TC Week 1 Cal 15 4 TC 4 2014 Week 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 2013 BPI-TCA US$/day 15000 Week 1 4 Cal 15 US$/day 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2012 BPI FFA US$/day BCI-TCA US$/day 28000 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2012 US$/day BSI FFA 2013 2014 ytd Week BSI-TCA 18000 15000 16000 14000 14000 13000 12000 12000 11000 10000 10000 8000 9000 6000 8000 1 1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951 Cal 15 Week 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2012 2013 Week 2014 ytd US$/day BHI-TCA 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Week 2012 3 2013 2014 ytd -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Iron Ore Iron ore: Analysts are cutting their price forecast from US$80 to US$65/mt for the next two years Iron ore prices are still low, and were reported at US$75.4 Wednesday this week. Analysts are cutting their price forecast from around US$80 to US$65/mt for the next two years. If prices should drop towards US$70/mt or lower, iron ore mines in China are likely to shout down production ac- crease. cording to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. If this happens HSBC predicts a 30 per cent decline in Chinese iron ore output in 2015. This will give a foundation for Capesize rates to find support as imports from Australia and Brazil are likely to in- Coal Coal: India aiming to be self supplied of coal within the next three years According to India’s Coal Minister Oiyush Goyal, India may be able to stop imports of power generating thermal coal within the next three years. To feed existing and upcoming plants, the Prime Minister of India asked Coal India to more than double its output to 1 billion tons by 2019. Modi also announced that he would open up for private firms to compete with Coal India, which at the moment accounts for 80 per cent of India’s coal output. If India becomes self-sufficient of coal, this will lead to oversupply on global coal markets and the unemployment of a number of ships sailing between India and coal exporting countries. will start in mid– December and will reduce production with about 5 million metric tons, equal to about 6 per cent of Glencores Australian coal production last year. Sliding prices have forced smaller operators to shut down mines, as low cost The worlds biggest producer producers such as Glencore of thermal coal, Glencore Plc has raised their output. will stop production at its Australian mines for three weeks as prices have hit a five year low. The shutdown Grain Even though the grain season in Australia and the US started in October, the market has not seen any rush to cover cargoes before the year– end holidays, as the trend has been in previous years. Mid– November is supposed to be busy as ships are 4 booked for second half De- are providing a downward cember loadings, this has pressure on freight rates. however not happened this year. Chinese demand is slowing down as a result of a softening Chinese economy and financing issues, cargoes out of the US for Q4 have been fewer than usual and -Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919- Office Oslo Address Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45, 0250 Oslo P.O. Box 2029 Vika, 0125 Oslo Norway +47 2252 7700 Athens Lorentzen & Stemoco (Athens) Ltd Leof. 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