1. business and industrial
2. agriculture and forestry
3. crops and seed

FARMERS FIELD DAY
Nov 2014
Date
Wednesday 19th November, 2014
Venue Scott Partnership Lyalldale
Lyalldale Hall
St Andrews
Farmers Field Day
For Hunter Downs Irrigation
Wednesday 19th November 2014. 10am – 12.30pm (BBQ lunch to follow)
Date
Venue
Scott Partnership Lyalldale, Lyalldale Hall, St Andrews
Objectives
•
•
•
•
for HDI farmer to:
Gain a wider understanding of irrigation value
Be updated on scheme progress
Gain details of next capital call
Meet the company directors and management
Programme
Registration and handouts (Tea & Coffee)
Welcome Introduction
Outline programme for the day and introduce team HDI and
advisors
Who
Field Day location
Outline of farm system
Describe;
• Current system crops grown
• Current options available for this block
• experience with Irrigation
• development plan for this block under irrigation, crops
likely yields
• Factors Scott Partnership are taking into account when
deciding to irrigate
Dave Scott, Scott Partnership
Lyalldale
Andrew Fraser HDIL Chair
PGG Wrightson
• Arable options
Water demand study results
Representing the Aqualinc work discussing:
• the water and soil interactions
• Climate why different to further north
• Why we don’t need 4mm/day
• Existing scheme experience
• Modelled plant yields
Ian McIndoe
Farm economics
• General farm system modelling for three season types
(dry, avg, wet)
• Specific Scott property analysis without and with for this
block
Irrigation development
Why convert, speaker pulling together all of the aspects that are
needed when considering to convert to irrigation. Why it is a
long-term vision
Scheme work programme update
Hugh Eaton
Thanks, wrap-up & BBQ
Jock Webster
Richard Timpany – CEO Hunter
Downs Irrigation
Andrew Fraser – HDIL Chair
Scotts
Dalys
Rainfall Recorder Sites
Rainfall (mm)
0
1960
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1965
1970
1975
Hunter Rain
1980
Year
Moanoroa Rain
1985
1990
Hook Rain
1995
ET
Rainfall & Evapotranspiration
2000
2005
2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
ET (mm)
Pasture growth adjusted for South Canterbury conditions
AusFarm Moanaroa
Adjusted HDE
90.0
80.0
70.0
kgDM/ha/d
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2.5mm/d = 16,135kgDM
Wet 1:10 = 11,357kgDM
Average unirrig. = 7,601kg
Dry 1:10 = 3,689kgDM
Mar
Apr
Deprecia on
Farm Profit
Addi onal Capital
Farm
Dairy
Total addi onal capital
Interest @ 6%
Net before HDI
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Notes:
Total revenue
Working expenses
Dry/Ave
$1,869
$1,059
57%
$60
$750
$750
Dry/Dry
$960
937
98%
$60
-$37
-$37
$1,427
$2,623
$1,136
43%
$60
$1,427
Dry/Wet
Farm surplus to fund HDI
$5,448
$5,448
$327
$1,242
$5,448
$327
$1,182
$5,448
$327
$1,404
$5,448
Arable Irr 1 Dairy Supp
(Mixed)
(Heifers)
$3,659
$3,347
$1,958
$1,523
54%
46%
$132
$93
$1,569
$1,731
$5,448
Mixed Irr
(Base farm)
$3,473
$1,871
54%
$93
$1,509
$5,448
$327
$1,836
$5,448
Arable Irr 2
(Intensive)
$4,598
$2,225
48%
$210
$2,163
$5,448
$14,677
$20,125
$1,208
$2,498
Dairy Irr
$6.50
$10,237
$5,957
58%
$575
$3,705
Hunter Downs Sco Partnership Field Day
19 November 2014
Farm Economics – Hugh Eaton
1. Dryland Pasture Growth
AusFarm pasture modelling at Moanaroa (Dr Peter Brown, Aqualinc):
Unirrigated
80
70
60
kgDM/ha/d
50
Wet 1:10
40
Average
30
Dry 1:10
20
10
0
-10
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Comments:
• Dry, average and wet pasture produc on vary by +/- 50%.
• Must leave slack in the system eg stocking rate, pasture cover, and feed reserves.
• Reduce risk.
• Flexible farming system is needed eg store/prime stock,breeding stock, hardy crops. Tends
to be lower value.
• Below op mum stocking rate and crop inputs.
• Retain reserves of supplements rather than ea ng pasture.
• Struggle to profit from the feed in a good year – quality deteriorates.
• Cash losses in drought years may not be covered by the good years.
• Low debt needed and opportuni es for development are lost.
2. Dryland Cropping
Unirrigated crop yields (Dave Sco ):
Crop:
Poor
Ave
Good
W Wheat
5-7.5t
8t
12-14t
W Barley
<7t
7t
8-10t
S Barley
2.5-3t
5t
5-6t
Oilseed R
2.5t
4t
<5t
3. Unirrigated Cropping Gross Margins (HDE):
Gross margin
Poor year
Average year
Good year
W Wheat
$1,649
$2,569
$4,409
t
6.0
8.0
12.0
W Barley
$1,053
$1,833
$2,613
t
5.0
7.0
9.0
O.S.R.
$604
$1,654
$2,354
t
2.5
4.0
5.0
Farm
$1,102
$2,019
$3,125
Comments:
• Like pastoral farming, high variability in yields.
• May not be able to reach high yields if crop set up for a lower target.
• S ck to the staple, lower risk crops
• Result is big varia on in profitability +/- 50%
4. Irrigated Pasture Growth
AusFarm pasture modelling at Moanaroa (Dr Peter Brown, Aqualinc):
Irrigated at 2.5mm/d
120
100
kgDM/ha/d
80
Wet 1:10
60
Average
40
Dry 1:10
20
0
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
-20
Comments:
• +1% to +3% annual produc on ie high reliability and li le varia on year by year.
• Can plan for a good year.
• Can stock up.
• Take on higher risk and more profitable stock classes eg dairy heifers.
• Profit improves with higher produc on and higher value product.
• Cash surpluses can support more debt and more development.
5. Pasture growth adjusted for South Canty condi ons
AusFarm Moanaroa
Adjusted HDE
90.0
80.0
70.0
kgDM/ha/d
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2.5mm/d = 16,135kgDM
Wet 1:10 = 11,357kgDM
Average unirrig. = 7,601kg
Dry 1:10 = 3,689kgDM
Mar
Apr
Comments:
• Growth rates include 100kg/ha of N.
• Growth in prac ce will vary significantly with pasture species, soil fer lity and grazing
management.
6. Irrigated cropping
•
•
•
•
Target a high and reliable crop yield
Higher value and more risky crops are possible eg turfgrass seeds, red beet, brassica seeds
& borage.
Limita ons on clay soils to winter grazing.
Some crops not feasible on clay soils eg potatoes, onions, vining peas & carrot seed.
7. Profitability of unirrigated farms
•
•
•
•
•
Model farm, typical: 1/3 wheat and barley plus kale, silage, 900 ewes and 200 dairy heifers.
Dry year = poor wheat yield, barley cut for silage, store lambs, fewer heifers.
Wet year = yields up, heavier lambs, all heifers wintered in-calf.
Limited op ons to take advantage of the wet year.
Farmer must be right on the ball.
8. Model farm with irriga on
•
•
•
•
•
•
Same model farm but with water.
Higher crop yields, silage sold, 950 ewes with all lambs finished.
Heifers li from 200 to 300.
1000 cows wintered (on alluvial flats).
Breeding ewes maybe not the best use of the feed.
Staple crops won’t give the highest gross margin.
9. More intensive farms with irriga on
1.
2.
3.
4.
Arable: Cereals, small seeds and lamb finishing.
Dairy support with 1000 heifers
Arable: cereals with high value seed crops
Dairy: 3.4 cows/ha producing 1,545kgMS/ha with 600kgDM supplement bought in and
223kgN/ha.
FARM SUMMARY 320ha
10. Farm model specifica ons
11. Farm surplus to fund HDI
Dry/Dry
Dry/Ave
Dry/Wetble M
Irrix1edDIrariry SuA
pp
ra
Arable Irr 2
Dairy Irr
Comments on farm surpluses:
• HDI scheme running costs are included at $182/ha.
• The capital cost of construc ng the scheme is not included.
• Cash loss on the unirrigated farm in a dry year but the wet year is as good as irrigated.
• Profitability li s significantly with intensifica on, higher GM livestock and higher value
crops.
12. Gross Margins
GROSS MARGINS
Farm GM $/ha
Farm GM c/kgDM
Sheep GM c/kgDM
Dairy/graze c/kgDM
Dry/Dry
Dry/Ave
Dry/Wet
Mixed Irr Dairy Su
pp Dairy Irr
Dairy Irr
$343
$1,153
$1,849
$2,449
$2,618
$7,519
$9,065
7.6
18.2
21.6
27.5
20.1
38.5
46.4
12.7
13.9
14.1
14.1
24
25.1
27.3
29
25.5
Comments:
• The gross margins show that with intensifica on you can not only grow more feed under
irriga on but get a higher price for it.
• The dairy gross margin shows the sensi vity to changes in milk solids price.
13. Messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
Irriga on gives reliability and reduces risk.
Reduced risk allows higher produc on plus higher value.
1.Irriga on is not just insurance. To pay for it needs intensifica on.
Dairying is not the only farm system to support irriga on.
Hugh Eaton
Registered Farm Management Consultant
Registered Valuer
CONTACTS LIST
Name
Phone
Email
HDIL Directors
Andrew Fraser - Chair
Ross Rathgen
Miles Anderson
Stacey Scott
Ian Moore
Don McFarlane
Dermott O’Sullivan
Quentin Hix
027 229 1087
027 224 5309
027 422 8048
021 688 588
027 539 8152
021 224 4202
027 270 1781
03 687 9010
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
HDI Management
022 187 3225
Richard Timpany - CEO
Brian Ellwood - Project Manager 021 676 052
Macfarlane Rural Business
Hugh Eaton
027 482 1191
[email protected]