East Africa Briefing November 2014 October at a Glance November 2014 Eritrea, October 29: The number of Eritreans crossing into Ethiopia rises to over 200 a day as food shortages and forced military service in Asmara result in a growing refugee crisis. Djibouti, October 29: Officials from the African Union, African Development Bank and UN arrive in Djibouti to mark the first official visit to the country by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. Somalia, October 5: African Union forces, supported by Somalia government troops, capture the headquarters and last major remaining outpost of Al Shabab in southern Somalia, the coastal city of Barawe. Ethiopia, October 14: Protesters gather outside the US Embassy in Addis Ababa, demanding the arrest of individuals who had desecrated the Ethiopian flag in the United States. The protest ended peacefully. South Sudan, October 31: South Sudanese President Salva Kiir recalls his peace delegation to the IGAD-sponsored talks in Addis Ababa in response to ongoing military engagements in the Unity State capital Bentiu. Uganda, October 8: Two people were burnt to death on a disputed piece of land in Hoima that has been leased to McAlester Energy Resources Limited to construct an oil waste management facility. Burundi, October 31: The Burundian Vice-President initiates the country’s latest BIF 12 billion EU-funded land management project. Kenya, October 18: KDF forces kill five suspected al Shabaab fighters who were attempting to drive an explosive laden car into Kenya from the Ethiopian Mandera border region. Zambia, October 28: Zambian President Michael Sata dies while undergoing medical treatment in London, paving the way for fresh Presidential elections in January 2015. Tanzania, October 31: Tanzanian authorities prepare to arrest two top officials within the national Petroleum development corporation after the pair refused to release recent production sharing agreements to the scrutiny of parliament. Malawi, October 17: An assistant accountant in the former Banda administration is found guilty of possessing over K112 million in hard cash at his home in circumstances in circumstances directly related to the “cash gate” aid corruption scandal. Mozambique, October 30: FRELIMO party candidate Filipe Nyusi is elected President of Mozambique, winning 57 percent of the popular vote in polls held on October 15. Former rebel leader and RENAMO party chief Alfonso Dhlakama came in second, receiving more than double 2009 support with 37 percent of the vote. Regional Overview November 2014 Shores near Djibouti Port Executive Summary Key Trends •African Union forces announce major successes against Al Shabab fighters as allied troops advance into the heart of militant territory. •Continuity of oil and gas exploration contracts comes into question in Mozambique and Tanzania as discord spreads within state bodies. •Fears of a power struggle among Zambia’s ruling Patriotic Front party emerge following the death of President Michael Sata. •Violent attacks surge in Kenya’s north-western counties amid improved Ethiopian-Egyptian trade relations. 30 26 20 16 10 2 0 KENYA 4 1 1 MALAWI Reported Violent Incidents MOZAMBIQUE RWANDA 1 SOMALIA SOUTH SUDAN TANZANIA Source: EI data Politics and Security November 2014 Somalia Al Shabab Forces Reduced But Undefeated as AMISOM Seize Remaining Coastal Strongholds By Rick Scavetta, US Army Africa, CC-BY 2.0 via Flickrs On October 5, after two assassination of leader Ahmed Godane on Septemmonths of military operations ber 1, in practice such discord does not appear to across Southern Somalia, govhave impacted operations on the ground. In the ernment officials announced immediate aftermath of Godane’s assassination, the capture of the port city complex bombing attacks in the Somali capital saw and strategic headquarters of Al Shabab, Barawe a brief suspension there, but have since returned town, marking an at increased end to over five frequency over years of militant the course of rule in the city. October, amid a While the immediwider upsurge Dhuusamarreeb ate impact of the in violence in GALGUDUUD assault has yet to south-eastBeledweyne be realized, the ern provinces. BAKOOL capture of Barawe While the loss Xuddur has occurred amid of Barawe is HIRAAN the most dramatic almost certain Garbahaarrey extension of Mogto add increased MIDDLE SHABELLE Baydhabo GEDO adishu’s territorial challenges to Al Jawhar reach in recent Shabab’s logisBAY BANADIR years, with African tical planning Mogadishu Marka MIDDLE Union (AMISOM) and revenue LOWER JUBA SHABELLE forces now advancstreams, given Barawe Bu'aale ing deep into the role that LOWER JUBA militant heartlands charcoal exports in Lower Juba and have historically SOUTHERN SOMALIA the Lower Shabelle played in group Kismaayo City AMISOM-Held under August’s financing, the August 16, 2014 Town ongoing offendetonation of August Gains Al Shabab-Held sive codenamed three major car Territory September Gains “Operation Indian bomb attacks October Gains Ocean.” since October 5 in the capital What does this has suggested that in the short term at least, the mean for Al Shabab’s long term survival? While group’s core cells are likely to remain both active various commentators have spoken of fragmentation and operational. within the group’s leadership structure following the Politics and Security November 2014 Zambia Succession Battle Begins in Zambia Following the Death of Michael Sata Sata, the second Zambian president to die in office in the last six years, formed the PF in 2001 and fought for the presidency four times before finally defeating incumbent leader Rupiah Banda in 2011, ending the 20 year rule of the opposition Movement for MultiParty Democracy (MMD). Despite outbursts of violence in 2011, Zambia has historically enjoyed a relatively stable political history and has established democratic institutions able to facilitate a smooth transition of power. However, Scott - already a divisive figure in Zambian politics due to his British heritage and outspoken manner - is stirring internal political tensions. While unable to run for presidency himself, Scott appears to be seeking to have a decisive say in the succession, swiftly moving to fire Edgar Lungu, the PF’s secretary-general and one of the leading presidential candidates, before reinstating him just 24 hours later when riots broke out in Lusaka protesting the decision. The riots were the first major incidents of political unrest witnessed in the country since 2011 and protesters have warned they may return to the streets. However, while an increase in protests and sporadic politically motivated incidents is likely in the short-term, Guy Scott can only hold power for 90 days and a full return to stability is expected following the elections. Although it is clear that deep divisions have emerged within the PF, these divisions are likely to prove more damaging to the reputation of the party than to the overall security situation in Zambia. The PF, currently in their first and only term in office, are already vulnerable following accusations that they repeatedly lied about the severity of Sata’s condition and they may face a tougher than anticipated battle during the elections. By Amanda Lucidon, CC-BY-2.0 via Flickr A power struggle has begun unfolding within Zambia’s governing Patriotic Front (PF) party, following the death of President Michael Sata on October 28, raising fears of instability in the generally peaceful nation. Sata’s vice-president, Guy Scott, has assumed presidential duties ahead of elections which, under Zambian constitution, must be held within 90 days. The succession battle is likely to be watched closely by Africa and the international community, given Zambia’s reputation as a safe investment location. However, despite concerns that a lack of transparency and personal power plays may threaten the success of the democratic process, Zambia’s political maturity should not be underestimated. Business and Regulation November 2014 Mozambique General Elections Are a Test for Mozambique’s Booming Gas Sector Crucially, Frelimo, by losing its two-thirds majority, also lost its right to make constitutional amendments at will, which will force the ruling party to compromise. While the refusal of any dialogue and return of armed attacks is unlikely as Renamo currently has more incentives to stay involved in the political process, such political deal will not necessarily be translated into long-term stability. The formation of the new cabinet, which will probably have to include members of Renamo to reflect popular votes and avoid violence, is likely to slow down the award of energy contracts and natural resources concessions. A reshuffle may also be followed by contract revisions such as the implementation of new taxes, which will undoubtedly impact on investor confidence and hinder Mozambique’s ongoing economic development. In a bid to reassure markets in anticipation of the election results, 15 oil and gas exploration blocks were offered to buyers on October 24, sending a signal that business continuity would not be affected by political negotiations. Despite this apparent commitment to protect its business environment, government formation will be determinant for the future of Mozambique’s hydrocarbon sector. By Adrien Barbier, CC-BY-2.0 via Flickr The governing Frelimo party has emerged as the winner of general elections held on October 15, with Filipe Nyusi succeeding to Armando Guebuza at the head of state. According to the electoral commission, which is considered as a credible and relatively independent body, Nyusi won 57.3 percent of the vote, against 36.61 percent obtained by Afonso Dhlakama, the leader of the main opposition party Renamo. Although the endorsement of African observers, who deemed the vote largely free and fair despite a number of irregularities in some of the central and northern provinces, Renamo officially challenged the election results on accounts of frauds such as ballot stuffing. Despite these allegations, Dhlakama said on October 18 he would opt for dialogue with Frelimo instead of resorting to violence in a probable bid to leverage their 89 seats for political power. The fact that Renamo increased its number of legislative seats from 51 to 89 is a sign that Frelimo’s popularity is wavering and that Renamo’s grievances related to state corruption and monopoly power have found an audience in Mozambique. Business and Regulation November 2014 Tanzania Corruption Allegations Threaten the Future of Development Plans in Tanzania and education initiatives. Under a five-year development plan to help Tanzania become a middle-income economy by 2025, the country is building new ports, constructing power plants and strengthening infrastructure, and a reduction in funding is likely to derail major spending plans in 2015. With a general election due next year, the government will also be hoping that a reduction in social and development expenditure will not damage their re-election attempts. Recent developments have bought the issue of Tanzania’s economic reliance on foreign aid to the forefront of the debate. International loans and funding are projected to make up 15 percent of Tanzania’s 2014/15 budget and there are calls for the government to concentrate on diversifying the economy and reduce the potential for future fiscal shocks should levels of foreign assistance further decrease. Many are also hoping that the suspension may force the Tanzanian government to address the corruption issue, particularly in the economically important energy sector. Whatever the outcome of the current investigation, Tanzania should be prepared for increased scrutiny from international donors who will be looking for indications that the country is combating corruption and creating a stable economic environment. Domestically, it is likely that pressure on the government will continue to rise as the general population looks for assurances that the economy is prepared for unexpected shocks, and that crucial development projects will not suffer as a result. By Remi Kaupp, CC-BY-2.0 via Flickr In the wake of an investigation into reports of embezzlement in Tanzania’s energy sector, 12 international donors have suspended aid funding to the country, threatening the future of a number of key development projects. In recent years Tanzania has discovered large natural gas reserves, however the energy industry has been consistently plagued by accusations of corruption. Details of the latest case emerged when opposition politicians claimed that senior government officials had fraudulently authorized payments of $122 million from state coffers. With a continuing investigation pending, the UK, Germany, Canada and other development partners including the World Bank announced in mid-October that they will not release almost 80 percent of a $558 million injection into Tanzania’s 2014/15 budget until a conclusive and credible outcome to the incident is announced. The donor group has repeatedly criticized the Tanzanian government for its failure to tackle corruption in the past and threatened to withdraw financial assistance on a number of occasions, although, significantly, this is the first time they have acted on these warnings. Tanzanian Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda has been quick to criticize the aid suspension, claiming that it is the wider Tanzanian population who will suffer the fall-out. It is predicted that the freeze could damage the country’s agriculture, manufacturing and tourism sectors, and prevent the implementation of critical new health Regional Forecast November 2014 Upcoming Key Events ETHIOPIA Egyptian-Ethiopian Tensions Ease Progress towards the resolution of the three year controversy surrounding Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the river Nile is expected over the coming month after delegates from both nations met in the Ethiopian capital in October to sign a swathe of bilateral trade agreements. Under the new deals, talks regarding Egypt’s share of the Nile’s water resources will continue as international experts meet to assess the impact of river levels. ETHIOPIA UGANDA KENYA TANZANIA UGANDA New Anti-Homosexual Legislation Expected Ugandan ministers are currently believed to be debating the introduction of new measures against homosexuality within the country’s penal code, adding further pressure on aid flows from international donors. Proposed legislation is expected to conform to a simplified version of the annulled February Anti-Homosexuality Act which in June saw multilateral donors suspend up to $118 million in financial assistance to the country. KENYA Rising Insecurity in Oil-Rich Turkana County Fighting is set to increase across Kenya’s north-western counties as military operations expand efforts against regional bandits who have terrorized local communities and attacked Kenyan police patrols across the course of October. An impending offensive was signaled on November 5 when the Kenyan military sealed the international border with Uganda, preventing the escape of assailants in areas of Baringo and Turkana. TANZANIA Gas Contracts Face Further Scrutiny Measures to promote greater transparency within Tanzania’s gas exploration licensing regime are set to return to the political agenda, following the arrest of James Andelile, Director General of the state-owned energy agency The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp (TPDC) on November 3. The charges against Andelile relate to allegations that the RPDC deliberately withheld the terms of production sharing contracts with the parliamentary committee on public accounts in October. Editor: James Borrelli triplecanopy.com [email protected] 12018 Sunrise Valley Drive Suite 140 Reston, Virginia 20191 USA About Triple Canopy Triple Canopy is a leading provider of mission support, security, training and advisory services to government agencies and multinational corporations across a range of market sectors and geographies. 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