Daily Global Market Update 9 March, 2015 Week ahead: ECB begins bond buying this week Shares were mixed in Europe and the Asia Pacific regions. However, US stocks tumbled after February employment rose more than expected. United States The strong employment report shook up the market Friday. Employment was up 295,000 in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 5.5%. The results raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sooner than expected. The dollar surged, Treasuries dropped and the market logged its worst day in two months. The Dow Jones industrials were down 1.5%, the S&P retreated 1.4% and the Nasdaq was 1.1% lower. The three indices were down 1.5%, 1.6% and 0.7% on the week. Stocks that pay good dividends such as utilities, telecommunication companies and real estate investment companies slumped the most. These stocks have been popular while interest rates on bonds remained low. If interest rates on bonds rise, they become less attractive by comparison. Some investors said that the sharp sell-off was an overreaction. Traders said the flow of money out of the market was largely driven by hedge funds and other big investors who make decisions based on broad economic trends rather than the outlooks for individual companies. Apple eked out a small gain. The company will replace AT&T in the Dow Jones industrial average on March 19. Bank of America advanced after the bank’s positive stress test results exceeded investor expectations. Gap declined after it reported a 4% drop in February same store sales at its namesake stores. Foot Locker added 4.1% after the sportswear retailer posted better than expected results in its holiday quarter. Gold at the afternoon London fixing dropped US$26.25 to US$1,175.75. Copper futures were down 1.5% to US$2.61. WTI spot crude was down 98 US cents to US$49.78. Dated Brent spot crude was down 69 US cents to US$59.79. The US dollar was up against all of its major counterparts including the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc and the Canadian and Australian dollars. The Dollar Index gained 1.8%. The yields on both the US Treasury 30 year bond and 10 year note were up 13 basis points to 2.84% and 2.24% respectively. Europe Markets were mixed Friday following the release of the better than expected February US jobs report. The report added to concerns that the Federal Reserve would increase interest rates in the near future. The euro added to its recent weakness against the dollar. The FTSE was down 0.7% on the day (down 0.5% on the week), the CAC was virtually unchanged (up 0.3%), the DAX added 0.4% (up 1.3%) and the SMI gained 0.5% (up 0.7%). On Friday, Greece repaid the first €310 million tranche of a loan from the International Monetary Fund that was due in March. The repayment was due Friday and the country has to pay a total €1.5 billion to the IMF over the next two weeks as the government led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras struggles to raise funding amid a cash crunch. Reports also said that the Greek government has sent a fresh list of reforms to Brussels ahead of a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers on Monday. The list apparently contains specifics of measures announced already and also some new reforms. Air Berlin increased after it issued its traffic data for February. RWE and E.ON both declined. ThyssenKrupp climbed as did Lanxess. Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Renault and Peugeot gained. Crédit Agricole and Société Générale advanced. Weir Group climbed following a report that the company may be a takeover target. Thomas Cook surged after China's Fosun International Limited agreed to acquire a 5% stake in the tour operator. AstraZeneca finished lower after the drug maker said it is evolving its financial reporting in line with the evolving business model. Mining stocks were under pressure due to falling commodity prices. Asia Pacific Stock markets in the region were mixed after the European Central Bank raised its economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone and laid out its plans for bond purchases to combat deflation. ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday said the ECB would purchase €60 billion of public and private sector assets each and every month until September 2016 or beyond if necessary to put the Eurozone back on track for sustained growth. The bond buying stimulus program begins March 9. Investors also were waiting for US jobs data due later in the global market day. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.2% while the Hang Seng slipped 0.1%. On the week, they lost 2.1% and 2.7% respectively. Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told the legislature that China will pursue an expansionary fiscal policy this year to withstand the downward pressure on the economy. The Nikkei rallied 1.2% to its highest since April 2000 buoyed by encouraging comments from the European Central Bank on the outlook for Eurozone growth and inflation. The index was up 0.9% on the week. Seven & I Holdings, Yamaha, Sumco, Olympus and Ajniomoto climbed. Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma jumped on a brokerage upgrade. Exporter shares closed mostly higher. Both S&P/ASX and All Ordinaries slipped 0.1%. Miners declined after iron ore prices sank below the US$60 a ton threshold overnight to hit a near six year low amid skepticism about the strength of Chinese demand. The indices both lost 0.5% on the week. The Kospi was up 0.7% and was up 1.4% on the week aided by sustained buying by foreign funds. Foreign investors extended their buying streak to a 10th consecutive session with purchase of shares worth a net 287 billion won. Global Stock Market Recap End 2014 Mar 4 Mar 5 Daily Change Dow NASDAQ S&P 500 S&P/TSX Comp** 16576.7 18097.0 17856.8 -278.9 -1.5 0.2 8.5 4176.6 4967.1 4927.4 -55.4 -1.1 4.0 13.6 1848.4 2098.5 2071.3 -29.8 -1.4 0.6 10.3 13621.6 15082.8 14952.5 -150.6 -1.0 2.2 4.6 FTSE 100 CAC XETRA DAX MIB Ibex 35 OMX Stockholm 30 SMI 6749.1 6919.2 6911.8 -49.3 -0.7 5.3 3.0 4296.0 4917.4 4964.4 0.8 0.0 16.2 13.7 Index North America United States Canada Europe UK France Germany Italy Spain Sweden Switzerland Asia/Pacific Australia All Ordinaries Japan Nikkei 225 Hong Kong Hang Seng S. Korea Kospi Singapore STI China Shanghai Comp India Sensex 30 Data Source — Haver Analytics 2015 Percent Change Daily 2015 Yr/Yr 9552.2 11390.4 11551.0 47.0 0.4 17.8 23.5 18967.7 22131.1 22436.1 36.0 0.2 18.0 8.7 9916.7 11051.3 11091.9 -32.5 -0.3 7.9 9.1 1333.0 1664.5 1662.6 -7.0 -0.4 13.5 22.4 8203.0 8992.5 9080.0 45.4 0.5 1.1 8.4 5353.1 5871.5 5868.6 -5.1 -0.1 8.9 7.1 16291.3 18703.6 18971.0 219.2 1.2 8.7 24.2 23306.4 24465.4 24164.0 -29.0 -0.1 2.4 6.6 2011.3 1998.3 2012.9 14.6 0.7 5.1 1.9 3167.4 3415.5 3417.5 22.2 0.7 1.6 9.0 2116.0 3279.5 3241.2 -7.3 -0.2 0.2 57.5 21170.7 29380.7 * * * * * Looking forward* Monday — Germany posts January merchandise trade balance. Canada posts February housing starts. Tuesday — China releases February consumer and producer price indices. France and Italy post January industrial output. In the US, February NFIB small business optimism index and January JOLTS and wholesale trade will be posted. Wednesday — China posts February industrial output and retail sales. Japan releases January machine orders and February producer price index. Australia reports January home loans. The UK posts January industrial production. The US posts February Treasury budget. Thursday — Australia releases February labour force survey. India reports February consumer prices and January industrial production. Germany and France post February consumer price indices. Eurozone releases January industrial production. The US releases February retail sales and import/export price indices and January business inventories along with the weekly jobless claims, Fed balance sheet and money supply data. Friday — Canada posts February labour force survey. The US reports February producer price indices and preliminary March consumer sentiment. *Note — all releases are listed in local time. The Longer-Term Perspective The table below demonstrates that while we may experience some short-term weakness in markets, the longer-term performance remains encouraging. Equity markets as at 06/03/2015 Market % change 12 mths to 06/03/2015 Source: Datastream, Price Index Returns in local currency % change 12 mths to 06/03/2014 % change 12 mths to 06/03/2013 % change 12 mths to 06/03/2012 % change 12 mths to 06/03/2011 US: Dow Jones 8.74 14.87 12.05 4.84 15.18 US: S&P 500 10.35 21.77 14.75 1.68 16.02 US: NASDAQ 13.22 35.06 10.72 4.51 19.70 MSCI Europe 10.04 12.69 13.92 -10.20 5.53 UK: FTSE All Share 2.01 7.92 13.42 -3.95 8.68 UK: FTSE 100 1.82 5.61 11.48 -3.75 6.98 Germany: DAX 21.04 20.50 19.39 -7.60 22.14 France: CAC 40 12.39 17.05 12.23 -16.36 2.81 Netherlands: All Share 21.40 13.83 7.56 -13.32 9.09 Italy: S&P MIB 7.67 31.06 -1.96 -26.74 -0.63 Switzerland: SMI 7.02 10.20 27.30 -7.40 -4.63 Spain: IBEX 35 7.65 23.27 2.35 -22.21 -4.73 Sweden: OMX 20.97 13.73 14.26 -4.93 11.45 Japan: Nikkei 25.35 26.84 23.81 -9.88 3.13 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan 9.93 1.58 11.03 -8.09 10.50 Hong Kong: Hang Seng 6.44 -0.33 9.48 -11.12 12.61 Australia: S&P/ASX 200 8.32 6.43 21.69 -13.56 2.04 China: Shanghai Shenzhen 300 60.03 -17.98 1.11 -19.86 0.33 Anne D Picker Chief Economist Econoday Important Information Econoday Inc. is a US company that provides financial commentary and indicators to industry professionals. All information provided and views expressed are those of Econoday. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested.