1. real estate
2. buying and selling homes

BVRLA Residual Value and
Remarketing Forum
18 November 2014
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Agenda
09:00
Registration
09:30
Welcome and Agenda
Jim McNally, Asset Risk Manager, Alphabet (GB) Ltd
09:35
Overview of current market conditions,
insights and trends
James Davis, Director of Commercial Vehicles, Manheim
Remarketing
Bryan Stringer, Manufacturer & Corporate Sales Director,
Manheim
10:20
Analysis and Dynamics of the Used
Vehicle Market
11:00
Coffee break
11:30
CAP Market Update
Dylan Setterfield, Senior Forecasting Editor, CAP
12:10
Vehicle Remarketing Tools
Phil Peace, Commercial Director, HPI
12:40
Chairman’s remarks / closing comments
Jim McNally, Asset Risk Manager, Alphabet (GB) Ltd
Fair Wear and Tear Standards Update
Nora Leggett, Head of Member Services, BVRLA
Promoting responsible transport
Chris Bussey, Commercial Director and Paul Jarvis,
Consultant, Deltapoint Associates
www.bvrla.co.uk
James Davis
Director of Commercial Vehicles, Manheim Remarketing
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Van Briefing
James Davis, Director of Commercial Vehicles
18th November 2014
Share The (Multi Award Winning) Love
@lovecommercials
1
2
Size of the New UK Marketplace and Parc
In the last 25 years: +40%
In the last 50 years: +10%
2007
337,741 (high point)
2009
186,386 (low point)
2013
271,073
f2014
316,000 (+16.5%)
f2015
326,000 (+3.3%)
Market Outlook For 2014
Pronunciation: /ˈsteɪb(ə)l
• Not likely to give way or overturn; firmly fixed:
“Specially designed rostrums that are very stable”
• Sane and sensible; not easily upset or disturbed:
“Manheim’s Director of CV is mentally stable“
• Not likely to change or fail; firmly established:
“Prices will remain relatively stable”
• Not liable to undergo chemical decomposition, radioactive decay, or
other physical change:
• “Isocyanic acid reacts with amino groups to form a stable compound”
• Good News. I believe our wholesale van market should remain “stable”
throughout 2014…..
Rolling 13m Van Wholesale Van Market
Oct 13 vs Oct 14
Age:
+6m (65m)
Mileage: +2k (84k)
Price: +£659 +15.5%
51% Y-o-Y
increase in
volume
sold
28% Y-o-Y
increase
in volume
sold
New
Record
Pre-Recessionary - Vans Over The Last 8 Years
• A 3 horse race……Small Panel Van older than Large Panel Van. 20-50% increase
in average value (£600 to £1500) despite age and mileage increasing
• All Vans Sold - Q1 2014 vs Q1 2006:
• Age:
+9m (54m to 63m)
• Mileage: +12k (72k to 84k)
• Price: +£1429 (45%)
• Mileages increased – vans cost more and are working harder
• 2007 was THE record year for the UK van sector – new and used
• Record number of new van models launched this year….last record set in 2006!
• Wholesale volumes down 20-30%,
• Record average wholesale value last month (despite increases in age and mileage)
Year on Year – Changing Mix
Basket
Oct 2014
Average
Age
Average
Mileage
(months)
2014
Selling
Days in
% Volume
Stock
Price
Car Derived Van
63
76,001
3,330
28%
16
38%
Small Panel Van
65
86,366
4,986
30%
12
21%
Large Panel Van > 3.0t
59
99,962
5,647
24%
13
17%
4x4
69
75,192
7,554
40%
14
9%
Grand Total
65
84,215
4,909
29%
14
100%
Days in
% Volume
Basket
76%
of
total
sold
Oct 2013
Average
Age
Average
Mileage
(months)
2013
% New
Selling
% New
Price
Stock
Car Derived Van
58
74,225
2,892
25%
13
28%
Small Panel Van
58
76,152
4,243
28%
15
23%
Large Panel Van > 3.0t
58
99,995
4,229
19%
15
20%
4x4
61
69,084
7,030
40%
14
9%
Grand Total
59
82,295
4,250
25%
14
100%
71%
of
total
sold
What does the workhorse performance tell us? Trend for downsizing?
Car Derived Van
Age
Bracket
% Total
(Months)
%
Variance
Average
Age
(Months)
Average
Mileage
Average
Selling
Price (£)
% New
Price
0 - 12
2
0
8
9,711
10,242
71
12 - 24
5
0
17
33,572
7,429
53
24 - 36
6
-7
30
44,322
5,596
41
36 - 48
32
3
40
61,742
4,310
34
48 - 60
15
0
52
78,587
3,484
28
60 +
41
4
96
96,715
1,586
15
Small Panel Van
Age
Bracket
Average
% Total
% Variance
(Months)
Age
(Months)
Average
Mileage
Average
Selling
Price (£)
% New
Price
0 - 12
3
2
6
6,207
17,529
84
12 - 24
4
-1
17
23,771
9,555
51
24 - 36
8
-6
30
45,377
8,729
48
36 - 48
22
-1
40
75,025
6,300
36
48 - 60
22
5
51
86,002
5,108
29
60 +
41
0
98
109,310
2,540
18
Large Panel Van
Age
Bracket
Average
% Total
% Variance
(Months)
Age
(Months)
Average
Mileage
Average
Selling
Price (£)
% New
Price
0 - 12
4
1
5
4,847
16,226
59
12 - 24
4
-4
19
37,322
11,543
43
24 - 36
7
-2
30
78,758
8,739
33
36 - 48
26
3
40
93,338
6,754
28
48 - 60
21
1
52
97,177
5,796
24
60 +
38
2
87
120,140
3,161
15
4x4
Age
Bracket
Average
% Total
% Variance
(Months)
Age
(Months)
Average
Mileage
Average
Selling
Price (£)
% New
Price
0 - 12
1
-
6
6,564
15,250
77
12 - 24
3
1
17
19,730
13,679
59
24 - 36
5
-5
31
45,254
11,091
56
36 - 48
28
5
40
56,915
9,948
48
48 - 60
12
3
53
71,160
7,763
42
60 +
50
-5
99
95,116
5,179
30
Today’s LCV Wholesale Market
• CDV - Very strong performances against book from Kangoo, Partner, Berlingo (3 seat)
Connect and Combo. Bipper, Nemo and Caddy 75ps in white less sought after and Caddy is
due to the volume in the market
• SPV - Strong performances from NV200, Transit Custom,Vivaro, Trafic and Dispatch. Late
plate Transit 260/280 have been just behind book
• Minibus – 9 Seater, 15 Seater and wheelchair converted buses performing very well 17 seat
Transit buses challenging and in some instances up to £1,000 behind book
• LPV – Generally the large panel van section has performed very well in all areas
• 4x4 - strong performances from Hilux, Amarok, Navara and L200 (Barbarian). High Spec
with load liners/rear tops making a positive difference. L200 without spec and Ranger less
sought after - in some instances up to £1000 behind book
• Luton, Tipper and Dropside - very strong performances, in some instances we have seen
single cap tippers and lutons up to £1500 over book
Market Factors – 2014/2015
• Could lead times become an issue – as seen in 2006/2007?
• Van de-fleet volumes - chronic shortages
• PPI, general election, worldwide economic growth, Ebola – contract extensions?
• UK economy recovering. - building projects re-starting good for self employed
• New market activity, dealer pre-registration, finance and broker business
• Online and physical audiences will increase – record online performances
• Car buyers buying vans, van buyers buying cars – older vans, price range
• Underlying strength of market should remain - no sign of increased stock levels,
• When…..20 to 30% more wholesale van volume?
Manheim CV at The 2014 CV Show!
147 Sleeps To Go:
@lovecommercials
James Davis: The Spy Van Restoration Man
Celebrating Transit’s 50th Birthday in 2015!
Follow my restoration progress here:
https://www.facebook.com/Therestorationvanman
Thank You
“Share The Love”
@lovecommercials
https://www.facebook.com/Therestorationvanman
Bryan Stringer
Manufacturer & Corporate Sales Director, Manheim
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Chris Bussey and Paul Jarvis
Autotrader / Deltapoint Associates
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Insights into the
Used Car Market
Deltapoint within Auto Trader
Background

Established in 1999 - philosophy of validating all source data to ensure
integrity

Algorithm based statistical modelling – no editorial intervention

Auto Trader’s data partner of choice since 2009 – acquired by Auto Trader in
2012
Provides valuation, pricing, risk and demand analysis tools to support:

Used Car Retailers

Leasing, Contract Hire and Daily Rental Companies

Banks and Asset Financiers

Vehicle Manufacturers
Deltapoint branding progressively replaced, under one brand philosophy
Theme
How data and intelligence can identify trends;
contribute to effective risk management; and shape
wholesale remarketing strategy
 Consumer Behaviour
 Retail Trends
 Market Intelligence
 i-Control for wholesale trade vendors
Data Sources
Classified Site
Auto Trader
Motors
RAC Cars
AA Cars
Sunday Times Driving
eBay
Gumtree
Sun Motors
PistonHeads
w/e 14 November w/e 07 November
444,901
275,745
102,757
156,943
121,242
214,130
119,467
117,842
123,206
442,983
279,761
101,914
160,013
119,520
214,443
114,481
116,619
122,351
% Change
0.43%
-1.44%
0.83%
-1.92%
1.44%
-0.15%
4.36%
1.05%
0.70%
Auto Trader - 93% Trade / 7% Consumer
Adverts
Data Sources
Live Market
AutoTrader
400,000 cleansed
used car asking
prices at any time
(2.4m pa)
1.5 million
consumer ad
views per day
Over 10 billion items
of vehicle related
data
Trade
Over 250,000
direct trade sale
prices pa growing
Retail Asking Prices
Supply / Demand
Used car model mix
Retail Days to Sell
Franchise repatriation
Consumer Trends
Used Car Market
Intelligence
Auction
Over 700,000
auction trade sale
prices pa growing
Trade Prices
Trade Days to Sell
Performance against
industry benchmarks
Disposal Pipeline
Wholesale Trends
The fleet vehicle life cycle - Procurement
Vehicle manufacture
Distribution and
Storage
Delivery to UK dealer
Supplying dealer delivers
car to employee …
Fleet company orders
vehicle from supplying
dealer …
… enters into lease
agreement with end user
client company
… employee uses car for
period of lease
The fleet vehicle life cycle – Disposal
End user client
company requests
collection
Vehicle sold to trade and
enters used vehicle supply
chain …
Fleet company
arranges condition
inspection …
… collects vehicle from
employee and decides on a
disposal channel
…via franchised / independent
dealer or car supermarket
car purchased
by consumer …
… enters
second life cycle
Consumer behaviour
Auto Trader – magazine circulation peaked at 368,000 copies in January 2000
…. this was down to 27,000 for the final printed edition in June 2013
Consumer behaviour
Digital Platform
Year
October
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Desktop
74,664,243
78,967,619
89,882,624
88,957,928
98,883,071
92,222,192
63,295,346
%
100.00%
97.78%
94.85%
85.14%
69.97%
58.82%
45.21%
Mobile + iPad
1,796,465
4,883,914
15,525,883
42,442,133
64,577,818
76,703,172
% Total Searches
0.00%
2.22%
5.15%
14.86%
30.03%
41.18%
54.79%
74,664,243
80,764,084
94,766,538
104,483,811
141,325,204
156,800,010
139,998,518
Growth in consumer searches on mobile devices has been dramatic ….
Consumer behaviour
At what times of
day do you
usually research
/ look for cars to
buy online?
22%
11%
Early Morning
(12am-8am)
26%
Morning
(8am-11am)
Midday
(11am-2pm)
31%
31%
Afternoon
(2pm-6pm)
Source: Auto Trader Car Buying Interactions Survey Jan 14
67%
Evening
(6pm-9pm)
Late Evening
(9pm-12am)
Consumer behaviour
Two thirds of car
buyers are
searching when
dealers are
closed
Source: Auto Trader Car Buying Interactions Survey Jan 14
Consumer behaviour
Sources: Auto Trader Survey Dec 2010; Auto Trader Survey July 2013; GFK Dealership Sourcing Studies July 2014
Consumer behaviour
How did you make initial contact with the dealer you
bought the car from?
35.90%
50% of car buyers
don’t use any
response route - they
just turn up!
50.00%
9.90%
4.20%
I PHONED THE DEALERSHIP
I EMAILED THE DEALERSHIP
Source: Auto Trader Car Buying Interactions Survey Jan 14
I SPOKE TO SOMEBODY AT NONE OF THE ABOVE - I JUST
THE DEALERSHIP ONLINE (E.G. VISITED THE DEALERSHIP
LIVE CHAT)
DIRECTLY
Consumer behaviour
Fuel / Propulsion
No
Electric Selection Total Searches
Year
October
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Petrol
Diesel
Hybrid
LPG
6.57%
6.73%
7.31%
6.07%
6.86%
6.94%
7.08%
15.83%
16.86%
19.81%
22.69%
22.23%
22.85%
21.66%
0.04%
0.07%
0.11%
0.11%
0.16%
0.21%
0.27%
0.29%
0.24%
0.39%
0.27%
0.22%
0.19%
0.13%
0.01%
0.01%
0.03%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
77.22%
76.04%
72.12%
70.83%
70.49%
69.76%
70.80%
Average
6.83%
20.87%
0.16%
0.23%
0.02%
71.84%
Of those who select a preference when searching, diesel is the most
popular ….
74,664,243
80,764,084
94,766,538
104,483,811
141,325,204
156,800,010
139,998,518
Consumer behaviour
Engine Size Band
No
> 2.5 Selection
Year
October
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
< 1.3
1.4 - 1.6
1.7 - 1.9
2.0 - 2.5
0.32%
0.27%
0.56%
0.54%
0.55%
0.58%
0.47%
2.08%
1.72%
2.70%
3.07%
3.28%
3.80%
3.22%
4.29%
3.52%
4.06%
3.58%
3.34%
3.14%
2.45%
7.16%
6.76%
7.98%
7.75%
8.07%
9.62%
9.95%
3.41%
3.54%
4.11%
3.79%
4.08%
4.87%
5.42%
82.69%
84.16%
80.38%
81.26%
80.66%
77.96%
78.46%
Average
0.50%
3.07%
3.33%
8.52%
4.37%
80.16%
Total Diesel
Searches
11,816,385
13,620,857
18,777,269
23,704,309
31,418,613
35,835,063
30,318,704
When searching diesel cars, 2.0 – 2.5 litres is the most popular …. but there is
also a significant number of searches for 3.0 – 3.9 litre engines
Consumer Behaviour
Top 3 most searched for cars on AutoTrader
1. BMW 3
Series
2. VW Golf
3. Ford Focus
Most popular colour is Black
Retail Market
Most dealers buy cars and plan to sell within 30 days
30 days
45 days
60 days
Retail Market
The average days to retail a car
55
Retail Market
Fastest selling
cars by region
New Car Registrations
Sources: SMMT &
CAP
New Car Registrations – Fuel Mix
Sources: SMMT &
CAP
Fleet Parc
Sources: SMMT, CAP & in-house
analysis
New Registrations / Used Transactions
Sources: SMMT, Experian &
CAP
2013
Upper Medium Segment – top 5 best
sellers
2012
Model
Volume
BMW 3 Series
Vauxhall Insignia
Audi A4
VW Passat
Ford Mondeo
43,494
28,383
21,879
17,139
16,230
Segment
Share
20.9%
13.6%
10.5%
8.2%
7.8%
Segment 208,462
Volume
BMW 3 Series
Vauxhall Insignia
VW Passat
Ford Mondeo
Audi A4
44,521
32,610
21,957
21,662
20,089
Segment
Share
18.7%
13.7%
9.2%
9.1%
8.5%
Segment 208,462
2011
2010
Model
Volume
Vauxhall Insignia
BMW 3 Series
VW Passat
Audi A4
Ford Mondeo
46,324
42,471
29,488
21,042
20,297
Segment 256,437
Diesel
Segment
Share
Segment
Share
Model
Volume
18.1%
16.6%
11.5%
8.2%
7.9%
BMW 3 Series
Vauxhall Insignia
Ford Mondeo
Audi A4
VW Passat
42,020
37,281
30,115
21,279
21,721
15.9%
14.1%
11.4%
8.2%
8.2%
79.9%
Segment 208,462
Diesel
77.5%
2009
2008
Model
Volume
BMW 3 Series
Vauxhall Insignia
Ford Mondeo
VW Passat
Audi A4
39,029
36,233
34,418
25,825
23,389
Segment 283,552
Diesel
Source: SMMT
Model
Segment
Share
Model
Segment
Volume
Share
13.8%
12.8%
12.1%
9.1%
8.2%
BMW 3 Series
Ford Mondeo
Vauxhall Vectra
Audi A4
VW Passat
49,384
44,150
42,555
31,365
30,625
14.5%
13.0%
12.5%
9.2%
9.0%
75.1%
Segment 340,796
Diesel
70.6%
3 Series has been a
consistent segment
leader – increased
market share over
the last 5 years …
BMW 3 Series – model range parc
E21 introduced in 1975 now in its sixth
generation
Model Designation
316
318
320
323
325
328
330
335
Source: DVLA
Petrol
48,661
123,929
65,270
17,249
45,529
13,101
32,384
6,723
Diesel
4,553
42,804
197,230
17
10,198
3
33,825
5,487
AFV
45
127
63
29
72
36
93
Total
53,259
166,860
262,563
17,295
55,799
13,140
66,302
12,210
647,428
Accounted for 30.23% of
BMW sales worldwide in
2013
Commercial importance
has led to an
evolutionary approach to
design and engineering
BMW 3 Series – overall volumes in parc
Model
Ford Focus
Ford Fiesta
Vauxhall Corsa
Vauxhall Astra
Volkswagen Golf
BMW 3 Series
Renault Clio
Volkswagen Polo
Ford Mondeo
Peugeot 206
Nissan Micra
Vauxhall Zafira
Honda Civic
Renault Megane
Ford Ka
Toyota Yaris
Mercedes C Class
Volkswagen Passat
Mini Mini Cooper
Fiat Punto
Source: DVLA
2013
1,450,876
1,345,298
1,160,610
1,099,916
960,418
647,428
614,082
582,473
509,007
470,576
442,930
438,341
420,176
418,681
407,017
400,851
349,758
336,367
333,055
324,140
2012
1,428,094
1,303,926
1,144,936
1,108,151
938,971
643,945
639,430
572,423
556,409
511,016
464,753
422,465
426,931
457,785
427,810
376,599
333,964
342,954
305,977
356,135
2011
1,387,932
1,304,908
1,134,527
1,196,303
918,492
641,331
668,245
561,411
599,871
547,214
484,757
409,788
434,619
491,544
443,482
352,138
319,215
343,420
277,791
387,147
2010
1,337,442
1,288,592
1,120,429
1,208,041
898,568
644,232
691,003
548,041
656,459
568,896
504,182
397,535
444,951
520,131
453,285
338,892
308,150
336,756
248,517
416,717
2009
1,283,903
1,266,383
1,101,708
1,207,454
880,217
644,885
701,979
534,632
703,299
585,838
519,939
373,884
447,926
538,472
453,399
320,326
301,606
335,861
223,481
441,493
2008
1,206,463
1,255,922
1,087,976
1,227,082
865,308
642,111
726,894
542,378
749,418
596,943
546,210
355,562
446,288
560,837
450,145
294,307
290,449
332,430
197,275
465,419
BMW 3 Series – overall volumes in parc
1.94% of
parc
Sources: DVLA &
CAP
2.22% of
parc
BMW 3 Series values
Sources: SMMT &
CAP
BMW 3 Series – petrol values
Sources: SMMT &
CAP
BMW 3 Series – diesel values
Sources: SMMT &
CAP
Retail Supply and Demand Analysis
All Manufacturers
BMW
Retail Days in Feed
All Manufacturers
BMW
Pricing Intelligence
Black Book
Monitor
Deltapoint AMV
Model Life Cycle Analysis
Model Life Cycle Analysis
Model Life Cycle Analysis
Disposal Pipeline Forecasting
Disposal volumes can influence short term used vehicle pricing ….
Disposal Pipeline Forecasting
We can develop this application if you want
it
but
we can only do this with your data
and
to be valid, everyone has to contribute
i-Control for Trade
Vendors
i-Control for Trade Vendors
AutoTrader used to determine prices by most industry sectors
•
manual and time-consuming process
Market Tracker created to automate this process with added value
•
•
•
retail desirability
competitor pricing
likely days to sell
i-Control created to augment this process with additional features
•
•
•
•
•
market appraisal / valuation
stock selection
stock acquisition
advanced metrics
performance trends
i-Control for Trade Vendors
i-Control for Trade Vendors
i-Control for Trade Vendors
Widen the evaluation into close derivatives and/or year plate combinations ….
i-Control for Trade Vendors
Assess the regional retail desirability for the cars due to be sold ….
i-Control for Trade Vendors
Check current retail market activity for similar cars ….
i-Control for Trade Vendors
Use the appraisal view for individual vehicle assessments, such as driver
sales
Use the market view to determine market stock levels and prices
Take a feed of metrics data directly into back-office systems with data linked to
specific vehicles showing:
•
•
•
•
•
market prices
likely days to sell
burn rate / market stock turn
retail desirability
average mileages etc.
Create specific reports in areas such as: “how many cars by model
manufacturer are in the market”; trend views; search statistics etc. and
Allow your available stock or impending defleets to be made visible to Dealers
i-Control for Trade Vendors
Wholesale stock can be offered to retailers via i-Control Sourcing module or
Auto-Trade mail or a wholesale vendor’s own online platform …
Dylan Setterfield
Senior Forecasting Editor, CAP
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
2014 Review
Dylan Setterfield
Senior Forecasting Editor
18th November 2014
AdBlue (Diesel Exhaust Fluid)
What is it?
• It’s nasty stuff - 32.5% high-purity urea, 67.5% deionized water
What’s it used for?
• Some vehicle manufacturers have used it as an after treatment to reduce
NOx emissions in diesel engines
Why does anyone care?
•
•
•
•
•
Debate over whether to include in SMR costs
Running out of DEF results in reduced power output
Leasing companies may not want to direct drivers to franchised network
Varying capacity reservoirs & may not be readily accessible
Inconsistent labelling and difficult to identify
What happens next?
• Will either be available as a file or within CAP NVD technical data
YOY% Deflation - Definition
What is the YOY% deflation at 36/60?
Value today
(Nov-14 1161 @ 60k)
8375
Value 1 year ago
(Nov-13 1060 @ 60k)
8975
Change (£)
-600
YOY% Change
-6.7%*
* -600 / 8975 = -0.067
Market Performance By Age
Significant variation – prices for 2-4 year olds reasonably firm
Market Performance – 12/20 By Fuel
Apparent recovery in electric values & strong hybrid performance…
Market Performance – Hybrid By Age
Older hybrids performing best?
Market Performance – Hybrid By Sector
Significantly different situation for various vehicle types
Market Performance - 36/60 By Sector
Market Performance – Main Sectors 36/60
Significant variation within major sectors, but recent convergence
Market Performance – Main Sectors 12/20
Less convergence, Lower Medium performing worse
Market Performance – Petrol vs. Diesel
Diesel premiums continuing to reduce (as expected)
Total UK New Car Registrations
Source: SMMT
CAP Forecast
Original Gold Book forecast for 2014 2.31mm, mid year forecast
2.38mm, latest forecast 2.44mm (+7.7% YOY)
Registration Growth – Retail vs. Fleet
Source: SMMT
Retail registration growth seems to have peaked, fleet growth
still accelerating, but limited scope for further large increases
Leasing - Remarketing (% CAP Clean)
Source: CAP Leasing Survey
Overall remarketing performance in 2014 close to long term average
Leasing – Auction Conversion
Source: CAP Leasing Survey
Not all vendors adjusting reserves to reflect seasonal downturn in Q4
Personal Contract Purchase (PCP)
Lawks-A-Lordy, the world is going to end!
PCP Reality
Myth: New car registrations are spiralling out of control
• PCP growth is not synonymous with increase in registrations
 2013 PCP +424,156 vs.2012
 2013 Retail registrations +144,806 vs.2012
Myth: They will all come back in 36 months’ time
• Manufacturers all have different PCP offers at varying age/mileage
parameters, many of which vary by model & some changing by quarter
• Dealers will work to churn PCPs 6-12 months before contract end
Myth: Used car returns will spiral out of control
• Retail registrations are still well below where they were from 2001-04
• Some drivers choose to retain their vehicles – future is uncertain
The world is unlikely to end
Gold Book ‘First Results’
New Car 12/20 Forecast
Average of
GB Diff (%)
Row Labels
City Car
-1.5%
Executive
-2.8%
Lower Medium
-0.5%
MPV
-2.1%
Supermini
-4.0%
SUV
-6.8%
Upper Medium
-4.6%
Grand Total
-4.1%
Used Car 12 Month Forecast
Plate
1262 @40k
1161 @60k
1060 @80k
0959 @100k
0858 @120k
Overall
Average of
GB Diff %
-4.0%
-4.1%
-2.1%
0.1%
-0.2%
-2.1%
Phil Peace
Commercial Director, HPI
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
PHILIP PEACE - COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS DIRECTOR
RESIDUAL VALUE AND REMARKETING FORUM
18TH NOVEMBER 2014
AGENDA
1.
2.
3.
4.
Who are Solera & HPI
HPI Product Suite
Market Trends & Stats
HPI Innovations
106
WHO ARE SOLERA HOLDINGS (NYSE: SLH)
107
WHO ARE HPI LTD
108
HPI LTD - OVERVIEW
What Makes an HPI Check?
HPI subscribe to many data sources and masses of data is available:.
109
HPI LTD – PRODUCT SUITE
HPI Core Services
HPI perform over 60
million ID lookups a
year.
HPI perform over 30 million
valuation enquiries a year.
An HPI innovation that details
all standard and optional parts
to a vehicle.
HPI hold nearly 40 million
interests relating to finance,
stolen, scrapped and VCAR
alerts.
HPI have nearly 200k
vehicles on our security
register..
An HPI innovation that assists
traders to source finance for
vehicles on behalf of prospective
customers.
The National Mileage
Register hold over 190
million mileages.
HPI hold over 900 million
records of vehicle data and
attributes.
on a daily basis
An HPI innovation that allows our
customer to publish stock to sources
such as; eBay, Exchange & Mart etc.
110
MARKET TRENDS AND STATS
UK Market Trends
111
The above stats are based on keeper changes.
Used vehicle market remained buoyant in 2014.
Due to New Car Forecast for 2015 increasing – anticipate growth in used car sales.
Our stats show for every new vehicle purchased a further 3.3 vehicles change hands.
MARKET TRENDS AND STATS
Finance Interests
112
NATIONAL MILEAGE REGISTER
HPI operate the National Mileage Register
•
•
•
•
•
190 million mileages recorded
BVRLA mileage data incorporated for younger vehicles
Now accessing MOT data from DVLA (Latest MOT and check date in out checks)
Obtain mileages – write out to historic keepers – identify if discrepant
Manufacturer used car programs (BMW/Audi/Mercedes etc)
113
• Regular Horror Stories
• Proactively targeting Mileage discrepancy firms - campaign
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Mobile App
114
Access to your HPI account on the move, full use of all products including HPI Spec Check and Valuations suite.
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Spec Check
What is it?
• A unique product in the UK, details the exact options that were factory fitted to the
individual vehicle.
• Derived from the VIN; linked to the manufacturers build sheet.
• Complex mapping to a UK price list, include packs unique to UK market.
115
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Spec Check
What does it cover?
UK market coverage is +85% of passenger cars.
116
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Spec Check
2014 Stats
HPI Spec Check
Option Ratings
For vehicles disposed
of this year by BVRLA
members HPI have
identified on average
£1,900 of optional
extras added to
vehicles.
The highest value of options identified in 2014
was on an Audi A7.
HPI identified £36,700 of additional options.
19.4%
26.1%
12.9%
8.6%
6.9%
5.5%
4.6%
3.8%
12.3%
Over 30% of Spec Check enquiries have
a significant value of options fitted;
equating to at least 10% of the base
vehicle price.
The most number of options HPI have identified
in 2014 was on a Porsche Panamera.
There were 48 options fitted.
117
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Spec Check
118
HPI INNOVATIONS
HPI Spec Check
Benefits
• Enhances potential valuations as buyers have clarity on specification
• Has the potential to improve conversion time of more desirable cars
• Levels out the playing field for specialist and non specialist buyers
Current Adoption
• Already widely used by Dealers when part exchanging and valuing vehicles.
• App will further broaden use in a live environment by buyers.
• Testing with insurers for total loss calculations.
Future developments for the Leasing Sector:
119
• Current processes mean Lease companies have the data but not passed to auction\other disposal
routes.
• Working with auction houses\remarketing companies we can enhance the descriptions of your
vehicles.
• Spec data generated by a VRM either on exit from your system or insertion to third parties.
HPI LTD
Questions & Answers
120
Jim McNally
Asset Risk Manager, Alphabet (GB) Ltd and RVR forum chairman
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Nora Leggett
Head of Member Services, BVRLA
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Car Fair Wear and Tear Guide Review
No change to paintwork standard
- e.g. dents up to 10mm in diameter provided no more than two per
panel scratches and abrasions up to 25mm
More advice to customers
- e.g. information at start of contract to help achieve standard at
end
Clear instructions at vehicle return
e.g. what to expect, if any charges – 4 weeks after collection
Better explanations and advice on charges
e.g. cost of rectifying any damage not ‘loss in residual value’, not
charged for normal wear and tear, leasing company may not repair
before sale, customers can arrange own repair
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Committee and Projects Update
Committee Discussions:
- DVLA updates
- Current and future market conditions
(PCP cars returning back in 2015/16)
- Removal of personal driver data from
on-board vehicle infotainment systems at
disposal
Next RVR committee: 25 November 2015
Next RVR forum: 18 February 2015
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Committee and Projects Update
Last forum (18 June) feedback:
- 84 attendees
- 26 completed survey
- presentations of ‘most value’:
Glynn Jones, Economist, Bank of England
James Davis presentation
Martin Ward - significant launches
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk
Reasons for attending
100%
90%
92%
80%
77%
70%
73%
60%
50%
54%
40%
35%
30%
31%
20%
10%
0%
Listen to speaker
presentations
Gather inspiration
Promoting responsible transport
Take away ideas
Aid personal
development
Network with peers
Assist with company
strategy
www.bvrla.co.uk
Final thoughts
Thank you to Manheim for their continued
support for BVRLA RVR Forums
RVR Feedback & Suggestions: Fran will
send the link to the survey tomorrow, so
please spend a few minutes to complete
Presentations: Fran will email the link to
download these from the BVRLA website
tomorrow
Promoting responsible transport
www.bvrla.co.uk