Warburg German Ideas Day Dr. Immo Querner, CFO 19 November 2014 Talanx - Key Investment Highlights Global insurance group with leading market positions and strong German roots Leading and successful B2B insurer Focus on long-term increase in value by sustainable and profitable growth Dedication to focus on insurance rather than market risks Commitment to continuously fulfill a „AA“ capital requirement by Standard & Poor‘s Target to achieve Group net income of at least €700m in 2014. Target for at least €700m in 2015 despite material increase in large-loss budget Dedication to pay-out 35-45% of IFRS earnings to shareholders 2 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 I Talanx in a nutshell II Outlook and targets Appendix 3 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell – A global insurance player Location overview in Primary and in Reinsurance 2013 2000 GWP split (Primary/Reinsurance): 44% / 56% Employees (Germany/abroad): 4,539 / 1,511 Countries with local presence GWP split (Primary/Reinsurance): 53% / 47% Employees (Germany/abroad): 11,302 / 10,227 Branch / office location Primary Insurance Branch / office location Reinsurance Global networks in Industrial Lines and Reinsurance. Leading positions in retail target markets 4 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell – Among the leading European insurance groups Top 10 European insurers Top 10 German insurers European insurers by global GWP (2013, €bn) German insurers by global GWP (2013, €bn) Allianz 103.4 Munich Re 51.1 Debeka1 Vk Bayern HUK1 AXA 85.5 Generali 28.2 R+V 103.4 Allianz 66.1 51.1 Munich Re 12.8 39.1 Zurich 9.3 Prudential2 7.2 36.0 28.2 5.6 Signal Iduna1 5.5 CNP Gothaer1 4.2 Crédit Agricole 26.4 W&W 3.9 Aviva 26.0 Figure of 2012 Gross premiums earned Source: SNL Financial, annual reports Listed 27.7 1 2 insurers Third-largest German insurance group with leading position in Europe and strong roots in Germany 5 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell - Shareholders and divisions V.a.G. Free float 14.5 %1 Industrial Lines Lead insurer of choice Extremely strong home market position, i.e. lead mandates with most German DAX companies and strong position with German Mittelstand Bluechip client base in Europe 79.0 % Retail Germany Highly effective network of distribution partners Market leader in bancassurance Market leader in employee affinity business Leading provider of corporate pension solutions Retail International Focused exposure to CEE and LatAm (#2 insurer in Poland2, #6 in Brazilian motor3) Attractive rates of organic growth Experienced underwriter in motor Focused M&A track record 1 Including employee shares Combined ranking based on November 2013 data of Polish regulator as per local GAAP 3 According to Siscorp based on local GAAP 4 Based on A.M. Best ranking (September 2012) 5 Based on S&P ranking by average RoE 2002-2010 and also number 1 by average RoE as per KPMG 2012 2 Integrated insurance group with leading market positions in all segments 6 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 6.5 % Reinsurance Non-Life Life/Health Hannover Re – world #3 reinsurer by GWP4 Well diversified between life/non-life and geographically Consistently amongst sector leaders on profitability5 Superior underwriting know-how Talanx in a nutshell – Strategic group pillars Focus of the Group is on long-term increase in value by sustainable and profitable growth and vigorous implementation of our B2B-expertise Profit target Capital management RoE1>∅ TOP20 European insurers Fulfill S&P “AA” capital requirement RoE1≥risk-free interest rate2 +750bps Efficient use of available financing instruments Risk management Growth target Generate positive annual earnings with a probability of 90% 50% of primary GWP from foreign operations Continuous development and promotion of own workforce Sufficient capital to withstand at least an aggregated 3,000-year shock Selective profitable growth in Retail Germany and Reinsurance Individual responsibility and entrepreneurial spirit Investment risk ≤50% 1 2 In accordance with IFRS Risk-free rate is defined as the 5-year rolling average of the 10-year German government bond yield Group and divisional strategies define goals and actions to be taken 7 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Human resource policy Talanx in a nutshell - Industrial Lines Key figures Share in 2013 group GWP1 2013 geographic split (GWP) 17% 46% 54% Key financials (€m) Gross written premium 3,835 3,128 3,213 +3% Net premium earned 1,744 1,345 1,401 +4% Net underwriting result (43) (93) (66) n/m Net investment income 240 167 209 +25% Operating result (EBIT) 129 50 125 +148% 102.4 106.9 104.7 (2.2 pts) 5.1 2.0 5.8 +3.8 pts Combined ratio 83% Germany International FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 Change (net)2 Return on Equity in % in % Recent trends GWP slightly down in Q3 2014 by -1.8%, while growing by 2.7% y/y in first 9 months 2014 (curr.-adj: +3.8%) Sustainable growth resulting from international activities, incl. Northern America and Asia Pacific Self-retention in 9M 2014 at 50.5% (9M 2013: 45.7%) - well on track to reach the FY2014 target of ca. 50%, despite €115m reinstatement premium (€74m in Q3 2014 alone) Reinstatement premium also negatively impact the expense ratio (Q3 2014 effect of ~3%pts) and loss ratio. Key driver of the loss ratio are significant large losses, e.g. flood in Michigan (USA) and various man-made losses, such as a major industrial explosion near Bremen 1 2 Based on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% share in Hannover Re Including income from interest on deposits Talanx is a leading European industrial lines insurer with global ambitions 8 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell - Retail Germany Key figures Share in 2013 group GWP1 32% 2013 business mix (GWP) Key financials (€m) 22% Gross written premium 6,954 5,196 5,079 (2%) Net premium earned 5,605 4,036 3,917 (3%) Net underwriting result (1,515) (1,130) (1,264) n/m Net investment income 1,786 1,319 1,430 +8% Operating result (EBIT) 161 111 119 +7% 102.4 101.6 101.7 +0.1 pts 3.0 3.2 3.6 +0.4 pts 78% Life Non-life Combined ratio (net)2 in % Return on Equity in % FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 Change Recent trends In line with targets, slight reduction in GWP, primarily reflecting a decline in traditional life business and a profitabilisation of the motor line Loss ratio close to normalized level, while cost ratio impacted by additional pre-seasonal service capacities Decline in underwriting results largely due to higher RfB contribution on the back of higher realised capital gains to finance ZZR ~75% of anticipated 2014 ZZR allocation booked (forecast of ~€355m for FY2014; FY 2013: €313m, both according to HGB). Total ZZR stock expected to rise to ~€1.1bn-level until year-end 2014 Higher ordinary capital gains contribute to profit growth 1 Based on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% share in Hannover Re 2 Including interest income on funds withheld and contract deposits; net, property/casualty only Strong German retail insurance business – more than 80% from B2B distribution channels (2013) 9 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell - Retail International Key figures Share in 2013 group GWP1 19% 2013 business split (GWP) 34% 2013 geographic split (GWP) 21% 51% 66% Non-Life Life 28% CEE/CIS2 LatAm2 Western Europe2 Key financials (€m) FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 Change Gross written premium 4,220 3,133 3,307 +6% Net premium earned 3,513 2,597 2,820 +9% Net underwriting result 32 23 (6) n/m Net investment income 284 214 241 +13% Operating result (EBIT) 185 157 164 +4% Combined ratio (net) in % 95.8 95.8 96.5 +0.7 pts 5.9 7.2 Return on Equity in % 7.2 - Recent trends 9M 2014 GWP growth of 5.5% (curr.-adj.:+10.0%), while currency-effects slighly fading out: Q3 2014 growing strong at 7.1% (+8.5%) Brazil and Mexico gaining significant growth momentum in Q3 2014 Slight increase in segment CoR in Q3 2014 by 1%pt. due to a severe bus accident insured by Warta (effect on segment CoR of 0.4%pts) and currency-effect (1.4%pts; compensated in „other result“) Turkey continues its positive trend (9M 2014 EBIT: €1.9m), Mexico and TU Europa with CoRs well below the 100%-level Increase in asset base and higher interest rates in Brazil support improvement in investment income 1 Based 2 on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% stake in Hannover Re CEE/CIS including Turkey and Russia; LatAm including Mexico; Western Europe including Italy, Austria, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg Focus on major growth markets in Latin America and CEE 10 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell - Reinsurance Key figures Share in 2013 group GWP1 GWP development (total, €bn) Non-Life Life / Health Key financials (€m) 32% 13.8 FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 14.0 12.1 Gross written premium 7,818 5,956 6,060 6,145 4,582 4,644 Net premium earned 6,866 5,093 5,104 5,360 4,024 3,861 Net investment income 811 599 666 610 460 461 Operating result (EBIT) 1,097 833 868 139 164 237 94.9 95.0 95.3 - - - Comb.Ratio2 2011 2012 in % 2013 Recent trends Non-Life 9M 2014 GWP up by 1.7%y/y (adj. for currency effects: +3.2%) with growth effects mainly from China and Southeast Asia. NPE +0.2% y/y (curr.-adj.:+1.5%) Large losses of €242m (4.7% of NPE) below budget (€491m for 9M 2014) Conservative loss reserving policy maintained for the large loss budget Net investment income increased despite the low yield environment. „Other income and expenses“ influenced by positive currency effects in particular in Q3 2014 EBIT margin2 of 17.0% (9M 2013: 16.3%) is well above target Reinsurance Return on Equity in % FY2013 9M 2013 9M 2014 15.9 15.2 15.4 Life / Health 9M 2014 GWP: +1.4% (+2.6% adj. for currency effects), mainly from Australia and Longevity BATs Technical result improved significantly due to normalised result from Australian disability business Net investment income at expected level, minor negative impact from ModCo derivatives Other income improved due to f/x effects Strong increase in EBIT1 by ~45% 9M 2014 EBIT margins1 in financial solutions/longevity business as well as in mortality and morbidity business ahead of targets 1 2 Based on total GWP adjusted for 50.2% share in Hannover Re EBIT and EBIT margins reflect a Talanx Group view Hannover Re is one of the largest and most profitable reinsurers globally 11 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Talanx in a nutshell – Sources for growth International growth Industrial Lines Increase retention Retail Germany Lever successful bancassurance Elimination of cost disadvantages Growth in selected emerging markets Retail International Role-out of best practise examples Reinsurance Efficient cycle management Expansion into emerging markets 12 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 I Talanx in a nutshell II Outlook and targets Appendix 13 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Outlook for Talanx Group 20141 Gross written premium2 +2-3% Return on investment ≥ 3.4% Group net income ≥ €700m Return on equity 9-10% Dividend payout ratio 35 - 45% target range 1 The outlook is subject to a thorough assessment of the protracted low interest rate environment and of the Life Insurance Reform Act (“LIRA”) impact on German retail activities 2 On divisional level, Talanx expects gross written premium growth of +3-5% in Industrial Lines, -(1-2)% in Retail Germany, +4-8% in Retail International and a flat to low single-digit growth rate in Reinsurance Targets are subject to no large losses exceeding budget (cat), no turbulences on capital markets (capital), and no material currency fluctuations (currency) 14 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 IV Targets for Talanx Group 20151 Gross written premium2 +1-3% Return on investment > 3.0% Group net income ≥ €700m Return on equity ~ 9% Dividend payout ratio 35-45% target range 1 2 The targets are based on an increased large loss budget of €290m (from €185m) in Primary Insurance On divisional level, Talanx expects gross written premium growth of +1-3% in Industrial Lines, unchanged premium in Retail Germany, +6-8% in Retail International and a flat to low single-digit growth rate in Reinsurance Targets are subject to no large losses exceeding budget (cat), no turbulences on capital markets (capital), and no material currency fluctuations (currency) 15 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 I Talanx in a nutshell II Outlook and targets Appendix 16 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Appendix - FY2013 target achievement Return on Investment GWP growth in €bn 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% +12.6% 30.0 25.0 +10.1% +9.3% +3.6% 2010 2011 +5.6% 20.0 4.2% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 15.0 4.0% 10.0 5.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 Outlook Rol > 3.5% 2009 2012 2013 2013 Outlook GWP growth ≥4% Net income and Payout Return on Equity in mn € target ROE 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 11.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.6% 4.5% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Outlook RoE ≥ 750 bps + risk-free1 2013 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (€1.05 p.s.) 626 485 2 17 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 750 515 216 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Outlook Net income ~€700m; pay-out ratio 35-45%2 Risk-free rate is defined as the 5-year rolling average of the 10-year German government bond yield (ROE target 2013: 9.8%) pay-out ratio 2013: 39.8% (2012: 42.1%) Note: figures restated on the base of IAS8; 2013 Outlook reflects increased targets as presented in Aug 2013 1 (€1.20 p.s.3) 2013 Appendix – 9M 2014 results – Key financials Summary of 9M 2014 €m, IFRS Comments 9M 2014 9M 2013 Change Gross written premium 21,732 21,380 +2 % Net premium earned 17,131 17,103 +0 % Net underwriting result (1,353) (1,228) n/m Net investment income 2,996 2,814 +6 % Operating result (EBIT) 1,444 1,376 +5 % 530 528 +0 % Net income after minorities Key ratios 9M 2014 9M 2013 Change Combined ratio non-life insurance and reinsurance 97.7% 97.6% 0.1%pts Return on investment 4.0% 4.0% 0.0%pts Balance sheet 9M 2014 FY2013 Change Investments under own management 94,053 86,310 +9 % Goodwill 1,108 1,105 +0 % Total assets 144,845 132,793 +9 % Technical provisions 99,643 91,717 +9 % Total shareholders' equity 12,562 11,124 +13 % Shareholders' equity 7,937 7,127 +11 % Note: numbers adjusted on the basis of IAS8 Bottom-line result slightly ahead of 9M 2013 18 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 GWP growth in line with 2014 Outlook, still dampened by currency effects. All segments apart from Retail Germany with positive growth Slightly lower growth in net premium earned reflects lower self-retention in Life&Health Reinsurance – while self-retention ratio in Industrial Lines is up by 5%pts Return on investment at 4.0%, well above the 2014 Outlook 9M 2014 net income (€530m) exceeds 9M 2013 level, even before adjusting for the base effect of partial disposal of SwissLife stake (~€100m) Shareholders’ equity up to €7,937m, or €31.40 per share. Solvency I ratio up to 240.5% (FY2013: 210.2%) Appendix - Large losses1 in 9M 2014 Primary insurance (€m, net) Snowstorm, Japan February 2014 Earthquake, Chile April 2014 Storm, USA June 2014 Storm “Ela”, Germany, Belgium, France June 2014 Hail, Canada August 2014 Flood, USA August 2014 Total NatCat Aviation 0.8 48.8 Reinsurance Talanx Group 10.2 10.2 6.1 6.9 8.1 8.1 43.9 92.7 11.5 11.5 30.0 30.0 79.6 79.8 159.4 7.5 126.4 133.9 161.4 36.0 197.4 Credit Transport Fire/Property Other 10.0 Total other large losses 178.9 162.4 341.3 Total large losses 258.5 242.2 500.7 Impact on Combined Ratio 6.1% pts 4.7% pts 5.4% pts Total large losses (9M 2013) 220.8 446.7 667.5 1definition 19 10.0 „large loss“: in excess of €10m gross in either Primary insurance or Reinsurance Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Net burden from large losses of overall €501m in 9M 2014 (9M 2013: €668m) Q3 net burden of €113m in Primary and €138m in Reinsurance Primary Insurance affected by significant amount of man-made losses in Industrial Lines Reinsurance mainly impacted by aviation loss, but very well within large loss budget Appendix - Solvency capital position Solvency I capital position Comments (€bn) 202% 225% 210% 241% As of 30 September 2014, available funds include €1.6bn of subordinated debt2 9.4 8.4 8.2 Goodwill of €1.1bn as of 30 September 2014 (relative to shareholders’ equity excl. minorities of €7.9bn) 6.8 3.7 3.4 2011 2012 Available funds Solvency I 1 2 Talanx has extensive experience in innovative capital management 3.9 2013 3.9 9M 2014 Solvency capital requirements margin1 Talanx Group based on the solvency of HDI V.a.G. (HDI V.a.G. is the relevant legal entity for the calculation of group solvency from a regulatory perspective) €1.6bn of the Group’s total subordinated debt (€2.7bn) are eligible for Solvency I capital (after accounting for minority interest and capped by regulatory thresholds) Solid solvency and high-quality capital with relatively low goodwill supporting optimal balance sheet strength 20 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Appendix - Rating overview Current financial strength ratings Standard & Poor’s Grade last update Talanx Group1 Talanx Primary Group2 last update Hannover Re subgroup3 Outlook A. M. Best Grade 30/06/14 - Stable 30/06/14 AA– Outlook 16/05/14 - A+ rating of Talanx Primary Group Stable A Stable - - 22/05/14 A+ Modifiers Anchor rating a+ Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile Modifiers Strong Very Strong Neutral IICRA 4) Capital & Earnings ERM Intermediate Risk Very Strong Strong Competitive Position Risk Position Management & Governance Strong Intermediate Risk Satisfactory Risk Position Liquidity Strong Exceptional Stable The designation used by A. M. Best for the Group is “Talanx AG and its leading non-life direct insurance operation and its leading life insurance operation” This rating applies to the core members of Talanx Primary Group (the subgroup of primary insurers in Talanx Group) 3 This rating applies to Hannover Re and its major core companies. The Hannover Re subgroup corresponds to the Talanx Reinsurance segment 4 Insurance Industry and Country Risk Assessment 1 2 Financial strength underpinned by S&P and A.M. Best ratings 21 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Appendix - Focus on insurance risk Risk components of Talanx Group1 1% 8% 16% Comments Other risk Operational risk Further life risk Total market risk of 37%, of solvency capital requirements, which is comfortably below the 50% limit Risk capacity priority for insurance risk 38% Non-life risk 2 Non-life is the dominating insurance risk category, comprising premium and reserve risk, NatCat and counterparty default risk Equities ~1% of investments under own management 37% Market risk 3 GIIPS sovereign exposure 1.7% of total assets (9M 2014) Talanx Group Figures show approximate risk categorisation, in terms of solvency capital requirements, of the Talanx Group after minorities, after tax, post diversification effects as of 2013 2 Includes premium and reserve risk (non-life), net NatCat and counterparty default risk 3 Refers to the combined effects from market developments on assets and liabilities 1 Market risk sensitivity (limited to less than 50% of solvency capital requirement) is deliberately low 22 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Appendix – B2B distribution as a key differentiator Linkage between different Group segments Industrial Lines Retail Germany Excellence in B2B2C channels1 Bancassurance Brazil B2B2C Automotive Core value proposition: B2B competence Retail Brokers B2B2C Retail International 1 Reinsurance Employee affinity business Samples of clients/partners Superior service of corporate relationships lies at heart of our value proposition 23 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Industrial Appendix - HDI V.a.G. history and structure Overview V.a.G. HDI V.a.G. is a mutual insurance company and majority-owner of the holding company Talanx AG The organisational setup reflects the historic roots of HDI, an association of important companies of the German industry that offers mutual insurance cover Approx. 0.8m members of HDI V.a.G. Alignment of interests of HDI V.a.G. and Talanx Group through - Providing efficient and reliable insurance to mutual members at market rates, often syndicate-based - Same decision makers: Mr Haas, Dr Hinsch, Dr Querner - HDI V.a.G. has no other investments besides Talanx and is interested to further strengthen and enable Talanx to provide stable insurance capacity to industrial clients - Talanx and HDI V.a.G. committed to capital market oriented dividend policy 24 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 History 1903 Foundation as ‘Haftpflichtverband der deutschen Eisen- und Stahlindustrie‘ in Frankfurt 1953 Companies of all industry sectors are able to contract insurance with HDI V.a.G. 1966 Foundation of Hannover Rückversicherungs AG 1991 Diversification into life insurance 1994 IPO of Hannover Rückversicherung AG 1998 Renaming of HDI Beteiligungs AG to Talanx AG 2001 Start transfer of insurance business from HDI V.a.G. to individual entities 2006 Acquisition of Gerling insurance group by Talanx AG 2012 IPO of Talanx AG 2014 Listing at Warsaw Stock Exchange Talanx Investor Relations Financial Calendar 23 March 2015 Annual Report 2014 7 May 2015 AGM 2015 11 May 2015 Interim Report Q1 2015 12 August 2015 Interim Report 6M 2015 12 November 2015 Interim Report 9M 2015 25 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014 Contact Talanx AG Riethorst 2 30659 Hannover Germany [email protected] Carsten Werle, CFA Phone: +49 511 3747 2231 [email protected] Marcus Sander, CFA Phone: +49 511 3747 2368 [email protected] Wiebke Erler Phone: +49 511 3747 2435 [email protected] Christian Marx Phone: +49 511 3747 2291 [email protected] Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on certain assumptions, expectations and opinions of the management of Talanx AG (the "Company") or cited from third-party sources. These statements are, therefore, subject to certain known or unknown risks and uncertainties. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, affect the Company’s business activities, business strategy, results, performance and achievements. Should one or more of these factors or risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results, performance or achievements of the Company may vary materially from those expressed or implied as being expected, anticipated, intended, planned, believed, sought, estimated or projected in the relevant forward-looking statement. The Company does not guarantee that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does the Company accept any responsibility for the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. The Company neither intends, nor assumes any obligation, to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company as being accurate. Presentations of the company usually contain supplemental financial measures (e.g., return on investment, return on equity, gross/net combined ratios, solvency ratios) which the Company believes to be useful performance measures but which are not recognised as measures under International Financial Reporting Standards, as adopted by the European Union ("IFRS"). Therefore, such measures should be viewed as supplemental to, but not as substitute for, balance sheet, statement of income or cash flow statement data determined in accordance with IFRS. Since not all companies define such measures in the same way, the respective measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used by other companies. This presentation is dated as of 13 November 2014. Neither the delivery of this presentation nor any further discussions of the Company with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of the Company since such date. This material is being delivered in conjunction with an oral presentation by the Company and should not be taken out of context. 26 Warburg German Ideas Day, 19 November 2014
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