for Central Banks - Sovereign Investors State Pension Funds - Treasuries 12th ~ 13th March 2015, London www.nationalalm.com/europe Rethinking portfolios and preparing for divergence in monetary policy Speakers include: Chris Salmon Executive Director, Markets Department, Bank of England Donald Malicki Director of Foreign Exchange Department, National Bank of Poland Morten Kjærgaard Head of Risk Management and Strategy, National Bank of Denmark Complimentary attendance for central banks and official institutions Central Banking Awards - same day, same venue! Details inside Welcome Dear Delegate, Over the past months, developed economies have seen a growing divergence in monetary policy. The Fed has ended its quantitative easing programme, but with economies in the Eurozone remaining sluggish, the ECB has commenced its “QE light” ABS purchase programme and many think it may soon have to join Japan in full QE. With this emerging dichotomy, central banks will continue to face volatility in markets as interest rates rise in some economies and fall in others. Sovereign investors must ask themselves what this will mean for particular asset markets and global liquidity. What will the consequences be for central bank balance sheets as yields diverge? How can central banks limit exposure to interest rate risk? These are critical questions facing the industry and official sector investors recognise the benefits of sharing experiences to explore answers. Now in its 8th year, Nalm provides practitioners with a forum to discuss these issues with peers. To date, more than 1,000 delegates from over 100 countries have participated in Central Banking’s Nalm series. Throughout the symposium, sessions will address the challenges facing managers of national balance sheets. Highlights of the programme include: • M orten Kjægaard, Head of Risk Management and Strategy at the National Bank of Denmark, will discuss trends and challenges in reserve management including the risks that reserve managers face and how investment strategies have been impacted • Jan Schmidt, Executive Director of Risk Management at the Czech National Bank, will speak about how to manage interest rate risk as central banks face monetary policy divergence from the Fed and the ECB • Eric Wolfe, Deputy Chief of Funds Management and Banking at Bank of Canada, will deliver a case study on how the Bank of Canada has updated its strategic asset allocation • Henner Asche, Deputy Director of the Markets Department from Deutsche Bundesbank will join us to speak about the ECB’s purchase programme and how it will impact markets • H A Karunaratne, Assistant Governor at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, will share experiences on investing in alternatives The benefits of participation are clear. By attending Nalm Europe, official sector investors have the opportunity to hear from senior policymakers and discuss with their peers how to prepare for market volatility, how to improve returns and how to strengthen risk management frameworks. I look forward to welcoming you in March. Best regards, Robert Pringle Chairman and Founder Central Banking Publications 12th - 13th March 2015, London Speakers include: Jennifer Johnson-Calari Advisor and Former Director of Sovereign Investment Partnerships, The World Bank (chairperson) Henner Asche Deputy Head of Markets Department, Deutsche Bundesbank H A Karunaratne Assistant Governor, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Morten Kjærgaard Head of Risk Management and Strategy, National Bank of Denmark Jan Schmidt Executive Director of Risk Management, Czech National Bank Eric Wolfe Deputy Chief of Funds, Management and Banking Department (FBD), Bank of Canada Maja Kadievska Vojnovik Vice Governor, Financial Market Operations and Payment Systems, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia Donald Malicki Director of Foreign Exchange Department, National Bank of Poland Chris Salmon Executive Director, Markets Department, Bank of England Istvan Veres Head of Treasury Division, Central Bank of Hungary Previous attendees have said: Very good choice of topical issues and excellent mixture of presentations and discussions The organization of the conference was excellent both in terms of topics covered, and in terms of selected presenters Head of Treasury, Strategy Division, National Bank of Austria Vice Governor, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia It was a very dynamic and targeted conference focusing on the latest reserve management and monetary policy issues A very useful opportunity to discover new trends in reserve management and to exchange ideas and new approaches in the current challenging environment Head of Division, Bank of Lithuania Head of Investments, National Bank of Moldova Day one: Thursday 12 March, 2015 Navigating the changing economic landscape 08.00 Registration and breakfast 09.00 Chairperson’s opening remarks 09.10 KEYNOTE ADDRESS: The changing role of the central bank • How has the role of the central bank changed since the crisis • How should central banks adapt their balance sheets? • How are macroprudential policies impacting central banks? 09.50 PRESENTATION: What to expect from the ECB’s purchase programme • Is the size of the ABS market in the Eurozone big enough to accommodate this programme? • How will the programme impact the market? • What role will external managers play in the management of the programme? • At what point would the ECB consider entering QE? 10.20 Networking break 10.50 PRESENTATION: Trends and challenges in reserve management • What are the major lessons learned from the past year? • What risks do reserves managers face in the post-crisis environment? • How has the end of the Fed’s tapering programme impacted investment strategies? • What is the outlook for global reserves holdings? • What asset classes are reserves managers considering diversifying in to? 11.20 PANEL: A view of the markets: the perspectives of official sector investors • How have market trajectories changed over the past 12 months? • What is the risk outlook for major reserve currencies? • How are these risks shaping investment strategies? • Where do opportunities lie in ‘traditional’ and alternative markets? Reviewing portfolios as economies recover 14.30 PRESENTATION: Assessing and updating strategic asset allocation: a case study • How does SAA help to determine the risk and return characteristics of a foreign exchange reserve portfolio? • What has the Bank of Canada done to update their SAA for their foreign exchange reserves? • What benchmarks were introduced for robust performance attribution and risk measurement? • How was the governance structure changed? 15.00 PRESENTATION: New developments in the internationalisation of the renminbi • What are the major policy developments in capital account liberalisation? • What is the timeline for the renminbi to become a reserve currency? • What is the outlook for the renminbi internationalisation? • What affect will the internationalisation of the renmibi have on the international monetary and financial system? 15.30 Networking break 16.00 PRESENTATION: Brics and Mints: what to consider when investing in emerging markets • After a year of volatility, what is the outlook for emerging markets? • What are the benefits and risks of investing in emerging markets? • Which emerging market bonds are central banks considering adding to their portfolios? • What are the appropriate benchmarks to use when investing in emerging markets? Afternoon continued 16.30 PRESENTATION: The case for investing in alternatives • Risks and benefits of investing in alternatives • Which alternatives should be considered – equities, MBS, ETFs? • What alternatives are on the horizon? • What percentage of a portfolio should be allocated to alternatives? 17.00 PANEL DISCUSSION: How should central banks and sovereign investors be rebalancing their portfolios? • What should asset allocation look like in the post crisis environment? • Should central banks continue to diversify their portfolios? • How can central banks ensure that rebalancing will boost returns in the long-term? • What risk factors should be taken into account when rebalancing? 17.40 Chairperson’s closing remarks 19.00 Annual Central Banking Awards Dinner with special guest of honour to be announced Day two: Friday 13 March, 2015 New avenues for risk management 08.00 Registration and breakfast 09.00 Chairperson’s opening remarks 09.10 KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Divergence in monetary policy and its effects on central banks • How will the divergence in monetary policy affect asset markets and global liquidity? • How will this impact central banks ability to affect their inflation targets? • What will the Fed do with the excess liquidity on its balance sheet? • How should central banks position their balance sheets to prepare for further divergence? 09.50 PRESENTATION: All balance sheet management: positioning for the recovery • What are the challenges and benefits of implementing an ALM framework? • How to determine what liabilities should be included • What should the governance structure look like? 10.20 PRESENTATION: Managing interest rate risk in times of divergent policies • Is there a new equilibrium level for interest rates? • Should central banks rethink how they implement monetary policy to limit exposure? • How can central banks reduce their overall interest rate risk exposure? • Under what conditions should central banks take more interest rate risk? 10.50 Networking break 11.20 PANEL: What risks should sovereign investors be preparing for? • What new risks will reserves managers face over the coming year? • How is the divergence in monetary policy affecting risk management frameworks? • How are geopolitical risks affecting investment decisions? • How to balance risk and return 12.00 Chairperson’s closing remarks 12.10 Lunch and close For sponsorship enquiries please contact John Cook t: +44 207 316 9739 Recognising excellence in the central banking community e: john.cook@ incisivemedia.com Join us on the evening of 12 March 2015 at the 2nd Central Banking Awards presentation. For full details visit: www.centralbankingawards.com Previous attendees include: Bank Indonesia Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo Bank of Albania Czech National Bank Bank of Algeria Deutsche Bundesbank Bank of Canada Monetary Authority of Singapore Bank of England National Bank of Belgium Bank of Finland National Bank of Denmark Bank of Italy National Bank of Poland Bank of Korea National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia Bank of Uganda Central Bank of Brazil Central Bank of the Republic of China Taiwan National Bank of Ukraine Norges Bank Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Central Bank of Colombia Sveriges Riksbank Central Bank of Hungary Swiss National Bank Central Bank of Ireland The State Pension Fund (Finland) Central Bank of Mexico The Treasury Department Central Bank of Nigeria The World Bank Central Bank of Sudan United Kingdom Debt Management Office 12th - 13th March 2015, London Booking details A. Register now: W: nationalalm.com/europe E: [email protected] T: +44 (0)207 316 9825 F: +44 (0)207 504 3730 European office registration US & Canada office registration Post: Conference Administration Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd Haymarket House 28–29 Haymarket London SW1Y 4RX, UK T: +44 (0)207 484 9912 / +44 (0)207 316 9825 F: +44 (0)20 7504 3730 E: [email protected] B. Post: Conference Administration Incisive Media 55 Broad Street, 22nd Floor New York NY 10004 USA T: +1 646 736 1888 F: +1 646 390 6612 E: [email protected] There is no registration fee for delegates from central banks, financial regulatory agencies, ministries of finance, sovereign investment authorities, national treasuries, state pensions funds and government debt management offices. Delegates will also get morning and afternoon refreshments, lunch and conference materials. C. 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