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Unigrain (Pty) Ltd
WEEKLY MAIZE REPORT
Tel. No. : +27 11 692 4400
Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183
18 DECEMBER 2014
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
Table 1: CME Maize prices and weekly changes (cents/bushel)
Weekly change
Currently
11/12/2014
(c/bu)
CME Mar-15
409
398 ½
10 ½
CME Jul-15
424
412 ½
11 ½




Monthly change
(c/bu)
24
23
From the table above we see that US maize prices gained some good ground in the
past week with both March and July CME maize contracts gaining some good ground.
On a monthly basis US maize prices are also trading higher with CME March and July
maize contracts gaining 6.2% and 5.7% in the past month respectively.
On the technical chart for March CME maize we see that the market has posted some
good gains in the past week and has broken above the key $4.00/bushel psychological
resistance level and some more follow through buying/short covering was seen and the
market traded to a high of $4.12/bushel which is its highest level in almost 6-months. At
this stage the moving averages and indicators are still pulling higher which could
continue to provide some support in the sessions ahead.
US maize prices did get some support from the surging US wheat prices in the past
week on reports that Russia is looking to limit their exports of wheat in order to calm
local wheat prices. Another factor that provided some support in the past week was
reported that the Chinese government also approved a GMO maize variety as well as 2
GMO soybean varieties which could be beneficial for US maize and soybean exports to
China in the months ahead.
It is also very interesting to see that the weekly US ethanol production figures remain
th
very strong with the production figures for the week ending the 12 of December
reported at 990 000 barrels/day which is once again a new record high. Figure 1 below
presents the weekly US ethanol production figures in the past few years.
Figure 1: Weekly US ethanol production (000 barrels)
1000
950
900
850
800
750
Jan 06, 2012
Feb 10, 2012
Mar 16, 2012
Apr 20, 2012
May 25, 2012
Jun 29, 2012
Aug 03, 2012
Sep 07, 2012
Oct 12, 2012
Nov 16, 2012
Dec 21, 2012
Jan 25, 2013
Mar 01, 2013
Apr 05, 2013
May 10, 2013
Jun 14, 2013
Jul 19, 2013
Aug 23, 2013
Sep 27, 2013
Nov 01, 2013
Dec 06, 2013
Jan 10, 2014
Feb 14, 2014
Mar 21, 2014
Apr 25, 2014
May 30, 2014
Jul 04, 2014
Aug 08, 2014
Sep 12, 2014
Oct 17, 2014
Nov 21, 2014
700
The USDA released their December monthly supply and demand estimates in their report last
week. From the USDA supply and demand estimates we see that:

The average market expectation of the US 2014/15 maize ending stocks was seen at
2.027 billion bushels. The official estimate came in at 1.998 billion bushels which was
well below the market expectations and lower than the 2.008 billion bushels reported in
November. Changes to the US maize balance sheet included a 10 million bushel
increase in the food usage of maize driving the ending stocks below the key 2 billion
bushel level. Figure 2 below presents the US maize ending stocks and stock to usage
ratio in the past few seasons. From the graph below we see that the 2014/15 US maize
ending stocks is seen at its highest level since 2004/05 while the 2014/15 stock to
usage ratio is estimated at 14.6% which is the highest since the 2005/06 season.
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any
losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report
“Together we make a difference”
Figure 2: US maize ending stocks and stock to usage
2500
30.0
2000
25.0
20.0
1500
15.0
1000
10.0
5.0
0
0.0
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
500
Ending stocks (mil bu) (RHS)

Stocks to usage ratio (%) (RHS)
In terms of the rest of the world the USDA in their December report estimated the
2014/15 world maize production at 991.58 million tons which is 1.2 million tons higher
than the previous estimate. The higher world maize crop estimated in December is due
to larger crop estimates for the EU and China. The USDA did lower their Argentine
maize crop estimate by 1 million tons. The 2014/15 world maize ending stocks was
estimated at 192.2 million tons which is 700 000 tons higher than the stocks estimate
seen a month ago. Figure 3 below presents the world maize production and ending
stocks estimates in the past few seasons. From the graph below we see that the world
maize crop is seen at new record highs in the 2014/15 season and ending stocks in the
2014/15 season is seen at its highest level since 1999/00 and very close to record
highs.
Figure 3: World maize production and ending stocks (000 tons)
1100000
250000
1000000
200000
900000
800000
150000
700000
600000
100000
500000
Production
14/15
13/14
12/13
11/12
10/11
09/10
08/09
07/08
06/07
05/06
04/05
03/04
02/03
01/02
00/01
98/99
99/00
97/98
96/97
95/96
94/95
93/94
92/93
91/92
50000
90/91
400000
Ending stocks (mil tons) (RHS)
Elsewhere in the world the weather conditions in South America has been mostly favorable in
the past few weeks with some good rainfall amounts that was seen. Figure 4 presents the
cumulative rainfall seen in South America in the past 30-days. From the weather map below we
see that some very good rainfall was seen in the key growing areas of Argentina in the past
month. In Brazil the northern growing areas did see some good rainfall but slightly drier
conditions were seen in the southern parts of Brazil.
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any
losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report
“Together we make a difference”
2
Figure 4: Cumulative rainfall past 30-days
Looking at the weather forecast for the week ahead we see that some widespread heavy
rainfall is forecasted for most of Brazil in the week ahead including the southern parts while the
northeastern parts of Argentina is also expected to see some widespread rainfall. Based on this
growing conditions in South America is expected to remain favorable in the week ahead. Figure
5 below presents the cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead.
Figure 5: Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead
LOCAL GRAIN MARKET
Figure 6 presents the weekly % change in our local maize market as well as the weekly
change in CME maize prices and the rand. From the graph below we see that US maize prices
posted some good gains in the past week with CME March and July maize contracts gaining
2.6% and 2.8% in the past week respectively. South African maize prices ended mixed in the
past week with March white maize gaining 1.2% while yellow maize prices for March was
unchanged week on week. It is also interesting to see that new crop July white maize contracts
led the way higher in the past week gaining 1.4% in the past week. The rand was very volatile
in the past week and is quoted at R11.59/$ this morning but the rand traded to an intraday high
of R11.81/$ earlier this week but the local currency has managed to recover some of the losses
seen recently.
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any
losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report
“Together we make a difference”
3
Figure 6: Safex WM and YM CME March and rand/$ (% change)
4.00
3.00
2.63
2.79
2.00
1.43
1.17
1.00
0.00
0.00
Mar CME
Jul CME
Rand/$
-1.00
Safex Mar WM Safex Mar YM Safex Jul WM
-0.34
-2.00
In the past week we did see that:

The weather conditions have remained mostly favorable in most of the key growing
areas in the past week with some more widespread showers that was seen. Figure 7
th
below presents the cumulative rainfall for the 10-days ending the 16 of December.
From the weather map below we see that most of the key growing areas did see some
good rainfall amounts in the past 10-days.
Figure 7: Cumulative rainfall for 10 days ending 16 Dec
Looking at the weather forecast for the week ahead we see that slightly drier conditions are
expected in the week ahead as the current conditions are expected to clear into this coming
weekend. From the forecast we see that some more showers are possible in the eastern and
northeastern parts of the country in the next few days but the central and western growing
areas should experience drier conditions in the week ahead. Figure 8 below presents the
nd
cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead as well as the 2 week of the forecast.
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any
losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report
“Together we make a difference”
4
FOCUS FOR THE WEEK




US maize contracts posted some good gains in the past week with the spill over
strength from the higher US wheat prices and some technical buying providing support.
The break above $4.00/bushel could continue to provide some support.
Reports that China has approved some GMO varieties and the strong ethanol demand
point to a strong demand side which could continue to provide some support to US
maize prices in the sessions ahead.
South African maize prices also posted some gains in the past week but local prices
underperformed compared to the US maize with the fact that the rand did come well off
the highs limiting some of the gains in our market.
The weather conditions has been mostly favourable in the month to date but slightly
drier conditions are expected in the central and western parts of the country which
could provide some underlying support.
Also see the technical graphs below

Safex March-15 white maize prices

CME March-15 corn prices
Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the report Unigrain (Pty) Ltd cannot be held responsible for any
losses incurred as a result of the use of the information contained in the report
“Together we make a difference”
5
Daily MAWH5
2014/03/31 - 2015/01/01 (JHB)
Cndl, MAWH5, Trade Price
2014/12/17, 2 180.00, 2 188.00, 2 156.20, 2 170.00N/A, N/A
SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 100
2014/12/17, 1 914.83
SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 40
2014/12/17, 2 016.55
SMA, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 9
2014/12/17, 2 135.44
Price
ZAR
T
2 160
2 130
2 100
2 070
2 040
2 010
1 980
1 950
1 920
1 890
1 860
1 830
1 800
1 770
1 740
Auto
MACD, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
2014/12/17, 51.69, 41.16
Value
ZAR
T
Auto
RSI, MAWH5, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing
2014/12/17, 71.821
Value
ZAR
T
30
Auto
31
07
14
22
April 2014
29 05
12
19
26
May 2014
02
09
17 23
June 2014
30
07
14
21
July 2014
28
04
11
18
25
August 2014
01
08
15
22
September 2014
29
06
13
20
27
October 2014
03
10
17
24
November 2014
01
08
15 22 29
December 2014
“Together we make a difference”
6
Daily CH5
2014/02/07 - 2015/01/06 (CHG)
Cndl, CH5, Trade Price
2014/12/18, 408, 4091/ 2, 4071/ 4, 409
SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 9
2014/12/18, 4017/ 8+
SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 40
2014/12/18, 3885/ 8+
SMA, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 100
2014/12/18, 3737/ 8+
Price
USc
Bsh
500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
409
7
401
400/ 8+
5/
390
388
8+
380
3737/ 8+
370
360
350
340
330
1/8
MACD, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
2014/12/18, 71/ 8+, 55/ 8+
Value
USc
Bsh
1/8
RSI, CH5, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing
2014/12/18, 64.834
Value
USc
Bsh
30
Auto
10
18 24
Feb 14
03
10
17 24
Mar 14
31
07
14 21
Apr 14
28
05
12 19
May 14
27
02
09
16 23
Jun 14
30 07
14 21
Jul 14
28
04
11
18 25
Aug 14
02 08
15 22
Sep 14
29
06
13 20
Oct 14
27
03
10
17 24 01
Nov 14
08
15 22 29
Dec 14
05
“Together we make a difference”
7