QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST TD Economics December 17, 2014 U.S. OUTLOOK: THE TIDE IS TURNING Highlights • The tide is turning for the American economic outlook. Economic growth surpassed expectations over the past two quarters of 2014, growing by an average of 4.2% (annualized). Growth was led by an upsurge in spending by households and businesses. • Job growth has continued to strengthen over the course of 2014 and rests on a strong foundation of rising job openings and increasing labor market turnover. This sets the stage for stronger wage growth, which feeds back directly on the consumer spending outlook. • Household spending will be further supported by the decline in energy prices. Oil and gasoline prices have fallen over 40% since our last economic forecast in September. This is a net-positive for the U.S. economy, saving the average American household around $500 a year. • Strengthening domestic fundamentals are offset somewhat by a struggling global economy. We have lowered our expectations for global growth (excluding the U.S.) by 0.3 percentage points over the next year. In combination with a rapidly rising dollar, this will make for a challenging environment for American exporters. • After averaging 2.3% in 2014, the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2015. In 2016, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.7%, as the economy edges closer to full employment. • Despite falling inflation on account of lower energy prices and the rising dollar, the continued improvement in the labor market will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the second half of next year. It’s hard to ignore the momentum in the American economy. Real GDP growth bounced back firmly from the setback at the start of the year, averaging 4.2% (annualized) in the second and third quarters – the fastest two-quarter pace of the recovery to date. Growth was led by private domestic demand – spending by households and businesses – that averaged 3.5%. CHART 1: REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The conditions are in place for this to continue. Consumer and business confidence is steadily recovering and balance sheets 6 Percentchange(annualized) Forecast look increasingly healthy. The labor market recovery is built on a 4 strong foundation of rising job openings and increasing turnover. 2 This is the recipe for stronger wage growth. As an added boost to household incomes, the steep decline in energy prices over the past 0 three months will save the average American household $500 a -2 Y/Y%chg. year. Since our last Quarterly Economic Forecast, oil and gasoline -4 (Q4/Q4%chg) 2014F2.3%(2.2%) prices have fallen over 40%. -6 2015F3.0%(2.8%) 2016F2.7%(2.5%) However, strengthening domestic fundamentals are increasingly -8 being set apart from a difficult global environment that will weigh on the trade deficit and headline GDP growth. Since September, -10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 we have brought down our 2015 expectation for global economic ForecastbyTDEconomics,December2014 Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis growth (outside of the United States) by 0.3 percentage points. Craig Alexander, SVP & Chief Economist Beata Caranci, VP & Deputy Chief Economist James Marple, Senior Economist www.td.com/economics @CraigA_TD TD Economics | www.td.com/economics With the dollar rising, this will make for a more challenging environment for U.S. exporters. At the same time, some of the additional domestic consumption will be satisfied by imported goods. The rising dollar will also mean lower inflation, which will allow the Federal Reserve to leave rates on hold through the first half of the year, even as the unemployment rate continues to move down. All told, following growth of 2.3% in 2014, we expect the U.S. economy to accelerate to 3.0% in 2015. Economic growth will likely moderate to 2.7% in 2016 as the economy moves closer to full employment. Falling oil prices lift the outlook for consumer spending By far the biggest change to the economic outlook over the past three months has been the decline in energy prices. The price for a barrel of crude oil had already been declining at the time of our last forecast in September, but the descent has turned into a rout over the last several weeks. The price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent benchmarks fell 10% in a single week at the end of November. The fall in oil prices reflects both supply and demand factors. The catalyst for recent declines was the reduction in global growth expectations, which have led forecasters to downgrade their expectations for oil consumption over the next few years. The supply-side factors have been longer in the making and have a lot do to with energy production in America. The increase in American oil production has been truly astounding. Over the past three years, America has added the CHART 2: OIL AND GASOLINE PRICES 220 Indexed;2009=100 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 WTI 60 Regulargasoline 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source:WallStreetJournal/HaverAnalytics. December 17, 2014 2013 2014 CHART 3: REAL SPENDING ON GASOLINE & OTHER MOTOR FUEL 4.0 Perhousehold;thousandsofconstant2014dollars 3.5 3.0 2.5 Centered12month movingaverage 2.0 1.5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,TDEconomics. equivalent of the annual production of Libya each year. In 2013, the United States produced more crude oil than Saudi Arabia. Increased North American production has cut into the market share of the OPEC. Instead of cutting back on supply to stabilize prices, the cartel has decided to compete for market share. The fall in prices will yield demand and supply responses that, over time, help to pull the price of oil back up. On the supply side, the lower price will squeeze out more marginal producers. This is the downside to the decline in energy prices. In states that are particularly dependent on oil and gas extraction – such as Texas and North Dakota – the reduction in investment and employment will mean slower economic growth. While this impact will be smaller nationally, it has led us to revise down our expectation for business investment, due the declines in the oil and gas sector. The decline in oil prices may also expose financial vulnerabilities as the viability of loans to the fast-growing oil and gas sector are brought into question. On the demand side, lower prices are likely to result in greater global fuel consumption, especially in emerging markets. After averaging just $60 in the first quarter, we expect the WTI price to slowly grind upward, reaching $75 by the end of 2015 and $83 by the end of 2016. The increase will be echoed in gasoline prices. In the meantime, the decline in prices is a boon to American consumers. Households spent roughly $3,300 on gasoline over the last year. With the decline in prices, this will fall to around $2,800 over the next year, a savings of $500. This is roughly equivalent to the fiscal stimulus of mid-2008. The additional money will provide a boost to 2 TD Economics | www.td.com/economics growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2015. CHART 4: BROAD TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 114 Index; January2007=100 114 111 111 108 108 Forecast 105 105 102 102 99 99 96 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 96 Source:Federal ReserveBoard.ForecastbyTDEconomics consumer spending, which we have lifted by 0.3 percentage points in 2015 relative to our September forecast. As prices gradually rise, it will subtract modestly from spending growth through 2016. However, the rise in prices is not expected to be nearly as swift as the decline, and will be offset by rising incomes. The dollar’s Orion-like ascent will be a challenge to exporters The flipside of the decline in oil prices is the rise in the dollar. While we had been anticipating a rise in the greenback, its ascent has been faster than expected. Since September, the trade-weighted dollar has risen over 4%. This is slightly more than the increase that had taken place between June and September. The rise in the U.S. dollar reflects a divergence in market expectations for economic growth and monetary policy between America and the rest of the world. While economic data has repeatedly beaten expectations on the upside in America, it has repeatedly disappointed elsewhere. In Japan, the economy shrunk for two consecutive quarters following the introduction of a sales tax hike in April. In the euro zone, growth has been lacklustre and inconsistent, with weakness more pronounced in core countries. Emerging markets meanwhile have been hit by a confluence of factors including: slowing growth in China, increased geopolitical tensions, and, for many commodity producers, declining prices. The combination of weak global growth and a higher dollar means slower growth in exports and a bigger rise in imports. All told, we expect net exports to reduce economic December 17, 2014 Falling inflation amid rising growth – the Fed’s new balancing act Lower energy prices and a stronger dollar will both weigh on price growth over the next year. Overall consumer price inflation (in year-over-year terms) is likely to trough in the second quarter of next year at just 0.7%. The decline in the headline rate mainly reflects the fall in energy prices, which will subtract close to a percentage point from inflation directly over this period. Core inflation – excluding food and energy prices – will prove sturdier, but is also likely to remain below the Federal Reserve’s target over the next two years. Energy is an input into a wide array of consumer items. Over time it will show up in broad consumer prices. The story is the same for the pass-through of a higher dollar. While the impact may be small at first, it will grow over time, as the lower cost of imports is passed on to consumers. Against this backdrop is the reality of a tightening labor market. Eventually, the improved labor market will win out, bringing inflation higher. While the rate of wage growth remains short of historical norms, it is moving up. The challenge for the Federal Reserve is that it does not set policy for the inflation rate today, but for where it expects it to be in the future. It must therefore look through the temporary weakness in inflation to indicators of future price growth. The increase in labor market turnover and the rise in job openings are a sign that wage growth will continue to move higher. As long as the economy continues to show improvement, CHART 5: CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION 6 5 Year-over-year%change CPI CoreCPI* Forecast 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *Excludingfoodandenergy.SourceBureauofLaborStatistics. ForecastbyTDEconomics 3 TD Economics | www.td.com/economics sudden disruption to credit markets is the most obvious downside risk to the economic outlook. CHART 6: INTEREST RATES 4.0 Yieldatend-of-period,% Bottom line 2013 3.5 2014 2015 3.0 2016 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Fedfunds rate 3-month 2-year 5-year 10-year 30-year Source:TDEconomics.ForecastasofDecember2014 the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates next year. Developments since our last forecast round have not led to changes in our view on the timing of the first rate hikes. While the composition of growth has shifted toward domestic spending and away from foreign demand, the overall rate of economic growth and job creation is largely unchanged. As such, we continue to expect the Fed to raise rates at their September meeting, bringing the target for the fed funds rate to 0.75% by the end of 2015. As policy normalization draws closer, however, we must recognize that this in itself is a source of risk to the economic outlook. Given the amount of leverage still in the global financial system and the search for yield that has come out of the prolonged period of extra-low rates, there is a chance that policy removal will not go totally smoothly. We know from the 2013 taper tantrum experience that markets may not treat the gradual withdrawal of stimulus as gradual. A December 17, 2014 In many ways, the American economy is in a goldilocks position. The stronger U.S. dollar and weakening commodity prices have led to a disinflationary impulse just as the labor market is tightening and pushing up wages. Finally, after years of stagnation, real wages are moving up. With November’s job report, the American economy has experienced 10 consecutive months of job growth in excess of 200 thousand. Moreover, the strength in employment growth is increasingly broad based. The share of industries adding jobs is the highest in 17 years at close to 70%. Following several years of painful deleveraging and weak spending growth, the good news is a long time coming. With the boost to real income growth from lower energy prices, the outlook for consumer spending is substantially better over the next year. Add to this the fact that we still have a long way to go before the housing market is back to normal. Another 50% rise in housing construction is expected to take place over the next several years. Mortgage rates have fallen and regulations are becoming more favorable for first-time homebuyers, which gives confidence to our forecast for housing starts. This all plays out in our forecast for domestic demand growth, which rises well above 3.0% in 2015. Although there is a partial offset stemming from weak net-exports, America is still a relatively closed economy. The drag from abroad will not be enough to forestall the acceleration in economic growth. 4 TD Economics | www.td.com/economics U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2014 Q1 Real GDP Q2 2015 Q3 2016 Annual Average Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 14F 15F 16F 4th Qtr/4th Qtr 14F 15F 16F -2.1 4.6 3.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.5 Consumer Expenditure 1.2 2.5 2.2 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.1 2.7 2.3 3.1 2.4 DurableGoods 3.2 14.1 8.7 4.3 7.0 5.8 5.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.4 6.7 6.5 4.4 7.5 5.7 3.9 Business Investment 1.6 9.7 7.1 3.8 5.0 5.4 6.6 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.5 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.8 4.4 Non-Res.Structures 2.9 12.6 1.1 2.2 1.8 2.4 3.7 3.4 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.1 7.4 2.9 3.6 4.6 2.8 3.7 Equipment&IPP* 1.2 8.9 9.0 4.3 5.9 6.2 7.5 7.4 6.2 4.6 3.9 3.6 5.6 6.5 5.8 5.8 6.8 4.6 Residential Construction -5.3 8.8 2.7 9.6 13.2 13.7 15.3 15.9 12.7 11.4 10.1 9.2 1.9 11.5 12.8 3.8 14.5 10.8 Govt. Consumption & Gross Investment -0.8 1.7 4.2 -1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 -0.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 3.3 3.1 2.5 3.5 2.7 Exports -9.2 11.0 4.9 3.7 2.0 3.5 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.6 5.2 5.5 3.2 4.0 4.9 2.3 3.6 5.3 Imports 2.2 11.3 -0.7 6.3 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.0 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.5 3.8 5.9 6.2 4.7 6.7 5.5 Change in Private Inventories 35.2 84.8 79.1 83.8 81.8 70.4 64.2 58.8 53.6 50.7 48.9 47.9 70.7 68.8 50.3 --- --- --- Final Sales -1.0 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.1 3.0 2.6 International Current Account Balance ($Bn) -466 -440 -459 -413 -374 -373 -385 -397 -402 -397 -394 -383 -444 -382 -394 --- --- --- -2.7 Final Domestic Demand %ofGDP Pre-tax Corporate Profits including IVA&CCA %ofGDP GDP Deflator (Y/Y) Nominal GDP Labor Force 3.2 4.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.6 -2.1 -2.1 --- --- --- -32.6 38.3 8.6 8.7 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 -0.4 6.4 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 11.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.1 --- --- --- 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 -0.8 6.8 5.3 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.7 3.7 4.6 4.6 2.2 -0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.5 Employment 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 Change in Empl. ('000s) 507 755 723 760 695 608 639 575 570 544 511 480 2,510 2,734 2,256 2,745 2,516 2,105 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.7 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 6.2 5.5 5.2 --- --- --- Personal Disp. Income 4.8 5.5 3.6 3.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 3.8 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.8 4.9 Pers. Saving Rate (%) 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 --- --- --- Cons. Price Index (Y/Y) 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.1 2.2 1.3 1.7 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 0.93 0.99 1.03 1.04 1.08 1.15 1.23 1.30 1.36 1.42 1.47 1.51 1.00 1.19 1.44 --- --- --- 0.7 1.1 1.4 -0.1 1.4 1.3 Core CPI (Y/Y) Housing Starts (mns) Productivity: Real Output per hour (y/y)** 0.7 1.3 1.0 -0.1 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 *Intellectualproprtyproducts.**Non-farmbusinesssector.F:ForecastbyTDEconomics,December2014 Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,TDEconomics December 17, 2014 5 TD Economics | www.td.com/economics INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F FedFundsTargetRate(%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 3-mthT-BillRate(%) 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.40 0.65 0.85 1.10 1.30 1.55 2-yrGovt.BondYield(%) 0.44 0.47 0.58 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.35 5-yrGovt.BondYield(%) 1.73 1.62 1.78 1.55 1.85 2.00 2.25 2.30 2.50 2.70 2.85 2.95 10-yrGovt.BondYield(%) 2.73 2.53 2.52 2.20 2.50 2.65 2.90 2.90 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.50 30-yrGovt.BondYield(%) 3.56 3.34 3.21 2.85 3.10 3.20 3.40 3.40 3.55 3.70 3.80 3.85 10-yr-2-yrGovt.Spread(%) 2.29 2.06 1.94 1.70 1.70 1.65 1.65 1.40 1.45 1.40 1.25 1.15 F:ForecastbyTDEconomics,December2014;Allforecastsareforendofperiod;Source:Bloomberg,TDEconomics FOREIGN EXCHANGE OUTLOOK Currency Exchange Rate 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 1.12 Canadiandollar CADperUSD 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.15 1.15 1.18 1.19 1.18 1.14 1.14 1.12 Japaneseyen JPYperUSD 103 101 110 119 120 122 125 125 125 125 120 120 Euro USDperEUR 1.38 1.37 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.18 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.24 U.K.pound USDperGBP 1.67 1.71 1.62 1.56 1.56 1.55 1.53 1.57 1.60 1.63 1.68 1.68 Swissfranc CHFperUSD 0.88 0.89 0.96 0.96 0.98 0.98 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.98 Australiandollar USDperAUD 0.93 0.94 0.87 0.82 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 NZdollar USDperNZD 0.87 0.88 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.65 F:ForecastbyTDEconomics,December2014;Allforecastsareforendofperiod;Source:FederalReserve,Bloomberg,TDEconomics December 17, 2014 6 TD Economics | www.td.com/economics GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE G-7 AND EUROPE Annual per cent change unless otherwise indicated Real GDP World North America UnitedStates Canada Mexico European Union (EU-28) Euro-zone(EU-17) Germany France Italy UnitedKingdom EUaccessionmembers Asia Japan AsianNIC's HongKong Korea Singapore Taiwan Russia Australia&NewZealand DevelopingAsia ASEAN-4 China India** Central/South America Brazil Other Developing Other Advanced 2013 Share* (%) 2013 99.9 3.3 20.0 2.1 16.5 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.1 17.2 0.2 12.3 -0.4 3.4 0.1 2.5 0.3 2.0 -1.9 2.3 1.7 2.7 1.4 41.3 5.2 4.6 1.5 3.4 2.8 0.4 2.9 1.7 3.0 0.4 3.9 1.0 2.1 3.4 1.3 1.2 2.4 28.7 6.6 4.6 5.2 15.8 7.7 6.6 4.7 6.7 3.2 3.0 2.5 13.7 3.5 1.0 1.9 Forecast 2014 2015 2016 3.2 3.4 3.6 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 3.5 3.9 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 -0.4 0.2 0.9 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 4.9 4.7 4.9 0.2 0.9 1.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.4 -3.5 -1.0 2.8 2.4 3.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 4.6 5.1 5.1 7.4 7.0 6.7 5.4 6.1 6.5 0.7 1.6 2.6 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.9 3.5 4.1 1.8 2.0 2.3 *ShareofworldGDPonapurchasing-power-paritybasis. ForecastasatDecember2014.**ForecastforIndiareferstoFY. Source:IMF,TDEconomics. 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 2016 Real GDP (Annual per cent change) G-7 (32.7%)* U.S. Japan EZ Germany France Italy UnitedKingdom Canada 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 -0.5 0.1 0.4 -1.9 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.4 -0.4 3.0 2.4 3.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 2.4 2.3 2.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 Consumer Price Index (Annual per cent change) G-7 U.S. Japan EZ Germany France Italy UnitedKingdom Canada 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.3 2.6 0.9 1.6 2.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.5 2.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.9 2.1 Unemployment Rate (Per cent annual averages) U.S. Japan EZ Germany France Italy UnitedKingdom Canada 7.4 4.0 12.0 5.2 10.3 12.2 7.5 7.1 6.2 3.6 11.6 5.0 10.3 12.8 6.3 6.9 5.5 3.5 11.3 4.8 10.4 12.8 6.0 6.7 5.2 3.5 11.0 4.7 10.0 12.4 6.0 6.7 *Shareof2013worldgrossdomesticproduct(GDP) ForecastasatDecember2014 Source:Nationalstatisticsagencies,TDEconomics This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. December 17, 2014 7
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