CRU UDE CHRISTMA AS 5th De ecember 20 014 Th he recentt announc cement by b OPEC not to reduce r production p n looks to o be a big b po ositive for owners. OPECs O rec cent deci sion to ke eep the ta aps flowin ng, meanss it is unlike ely that the oill price will exceed d current levels for some tim me, punish hing some e produce ers ard. At the e same tim me low oil prices wiill stimulatte consum mption, ulttimately encouragi e ha ng crrude movements. In this rep port we fo ocus on th he VLCCs as a keyy driver off the overrall crrude markket. 20 014 has se een a marrked impro ovement in sentime ent, with many m sug ggesting th hat we may ha ave seen the botto om of this particula ar cycle. The fortune es of the VLCC ow wner can be jud dged from m the 12 month t//c returns for VLCC Cs fixed between b June 2011 and June 20 014. This average ed $20,50 00/day, compare ed to arround $332,500/da ay curren ntly co ommande ed by a modern m no on eco un nit. Th he frequent volatilitty of the spot ma rket durin ng 2014 has h signific cantly inc creased the co onfidence e of shipowners who w have e been struggling g with low w returnss since the be eginning of 2011. Owners have h as a result sh hown a greater g ap ppetite to o take th heir ch hances on n the spott market to rebuild their war chests bu ut will this b be the rig ght tactic for 20 015? We have seen some VLCC V own ners decid de that a $30,000 $ p /d level iss the tipping po oint for them and have h cho osen to loc ck in at th his level fo or 12 mon nths t/c. The average De ecember 2012 TD3 spot was $24,750/d day (basiss slow stea aming). In n Decemb ber 2013 the fig gure was $ $45,500/day and as of today y it is $53,0 000/day and a weake kening. Th he earning gs position n for the owners o ha as of coursse been considerab c bly enhan nced by the fall in bunke er prices. In the case of Rottterdam 38 80cst, the price hass fallen 36 6% since the be eginning o of the yea ar from $5 592/tonne to $373/ttonne tod day. In thiss scenario o higher sp pot rates may e encourag ge ownerss to reversse their su uper slow steaming g strategie es. Howev ver, on ne should d be awa are, that abandon ning this policy p co ould comp promise the t owne ers’ po osition. In the last two yearrs the VLC CC marke et has be een adap pting to a change e in trading pa atterns ressulting from a decline in imp ports of crrude to th he US and d increasin ng demand fro om the Ea ast. The lo onger voyages from m West Affrica and the Carib bbean to Asia Paciific ine evitably throw up schedulin s g issues fo or charterers with tonnage t being out of position orr in short su upply. Thiss situation n is likely to o be compounded d next yea ar with few wer voyag ges ta aking plac ce to the e US whic ch will ma ake programming liftings e ex Caribs even mo ore prroblematic c. VLLCC newb building deliveries d in 2014 an nd 2015 ha ave been n very muc ch under control with w 24 4 being th he final to otal for 2014 and a further 23 3 schedulled for 20015. There will also be so ome scrap pping and d limited conversion c ns which will w help the t balan nce, so the ese statisttics loo ok pretty favourab ble from the t owne er's standp point. How wever, the e picture changess in 20 016 with ssome 54 deliveries currently y on the radar, somewhat more sign nificant. This T ye ear has alsso seen fu urther con nsolidation n of the VLLCC fleet. For exam mple, ontline an nd Tankers Interna ational en ntered into a joint venture which en ncompassses Fro so ome 62 Ta ankers trad ding on th he spot m market. This equates to apprroximately y 10% of the t cu urrent flee et, and an n even greater sha are of the e spot VLCC marke ket. The th heory is th hat these bigge er fleets ha ave greatter barga ining pow wer to ach hieve bettter rates. Th here has b been a great g deal of discu ussion abo out the co ontango structure in oil pric ces wh hich untill now ha as not be een stee p enough to stim mulate m uch tank ker storag ge. Ho owever, o once we have h gone e into 201 5 there may m come e a point w when the rapid buiildup p of surplus crude e in the market m w will open opportunities for ffloating storage. This T sc cenario is a further positive p fo or VLCCs. In conclusio on we be elieve the e prospec cts for VLC CCs and generallyy in the crude c sector loo ok fairly se et for 2015 5 to carry on where e 2014 leaves off. CRUDE Mid ddle Easst________________ ____________ wha at goes up, must com me down...and event ually the reverse is true, thoug gh for VLCC Cs to turn, and within only a week is pretty rrare. turn again w Cha arterers starrted the we eek with en nough discip pline to puncture p la ast week’s rally, r but on nce prices had mov ved off some 10 pct, re-entere ed in suffic cient num mbers to en ncourage Owners O to once o again n set their sights up pon regainiing the wss 65/67.5 p peak num mbers that had been n seen to the East, with arou und ws 33 available to the West, via Ca ape. Suezzmaxes mo oved in a more m consisstent directiion dow wnwards. No ot a comple ete collapse e, but levelss did tumble noticea ably to 130 0,000 by ws 90 to the East and d high ws 50 0’s payable e to the We est, though h the marrket should move thro ough a mo ore level pa atch over the next period. Afrramaxes loo oked as if they had d topped a at ws 140 to o Singapore e, and, inde eed, the market slip pped to ws 125 on thin enquiry, and on looks on n the easiier availability. Further deterioratio card ds. We est Africa a________________ ____________ No relief r for Sue ezmaxes ass last week’s big hit bru uised rate es even furth her to end at a 130,000 by b ws 70/72 2.5 to the US Gulf w with only sm mall premium ms above that me explana ation anticipated forr European options. Som oints to the e fact thatt the of the lack of enquiry po r th he date w here fixing window has now reached CCs had pre eviously bee en taken in numbers. O Once VLC thatt window has been hu urdled, then n there mayy be morre opportu unity for Owners. VLCCs fo ound con ncentrated attention for end Dec/early Jan posiitions, and that, togetther with th he u-turn in n the AGu ulf, broughtt rate ideas back up again a to aro ound ws 62.5 6 to the further Eastt with $5 million+ asked d for Wesst Coast Ind dia. Me editerran nean_____________ ___________ Incrreased pa ain for A Aframaxes as Charterers whip pped rates back down n to 80,000 by b ws 90/92 2.5 XMed d, though that eve entually provoked more m mea aningful sho opping, an nd a trimme ed tonnage e list prov vides some hope of a degree of re-inflation next wee ek. Suezma axes kicked a few ca ans, but had to give e ground on n the lack o of Afra oppo ortunity, and d the rela ative collapsse in West A Africa. Ratess from the Black B Sea moved off to 140,0000 by ws 82.5 for Europ pean destinations, th hough up to o $4.6 millio on was seen on e tight, position fro om the Med d to China, with an early, hea at. Ca aribbean n_________________ ___________ Afra amaxes sta arted theirr post-Holid day camp paign whe ere they leftt off - at 70,,000 by ave e ws 115 upo oast, but then hoped that theyy would ben nefit from a preChristmas rush ...they we ere disappo ointed, and d the ek closed at little bette er than ws 110. VLCCs kept wee their tails up with w rate de emands still at around $7.2 million to Singa apore and $6.5 million n to West Coast C oking North h Sea list poses p India, though a thick loo me threat to o the tight local supp ply as we move m som dee eper into January. No orth Sea_ __________________ ____________ Owners managed to pu ut the handbrake on the away train, and rates started to creep upw wards runa Cont and 100,000 by ws to 80,000 8 by wss 105 X - UKC w 85 from m the Baltic c, as Charte erers started to clear their pre--Christmas lines. Furth er gains sh hould be seen. s Suezmaxes found more frie ends for on nce with easstern ularly sough t after at up to $4.6 million m optiions particu from m the Baltic to Singa apore. Tran nsatlantic le evels varied somewh hat, but op perated witthin a ws 60/65 6 ge for the majority. V VLCCs run through a dry rang patch whilst the t 'arb' e economics fail to match Owners' altern natives from m the Caribbean… and ybe even from West Affrica, now. may CLEAN PRODUCTS East______________________________ A tough week for LRs but also one ending in a slightly more positive mood than when it started. Rates saw a steady slip all week but tonnage lists are now looking a little better for Owners and rates look like then may see a small bounce back. 55,000 mt Naphtha AG/Japan is now at ws 110 and 65,000 mt Jet AG/UKC is $1.85 million. LR2s are also down on the week with 75,000 mt Naphtha AG/Japan at ws 105 and 90,000 mt jet AG/UKC at $2.75 million. But once again these rates may see slight improvements next week. MRs began the week with a heavy front end position list, but have really thinned out and the shorthaul market is firming as the week draws to an end. TC12, as usual, has not been affected and remains 35 x122.5-125 levels, although you would expect Owners to try and push this for 2nd half December lifting’s. East Africa and South Africa has seen a lot of activity and most this was covered before the shorthauls firmed, hence rates actually came off and ws 148 is on subs, that is a 12 point drop over the week. AG to the UKC has been fixing at $1.25 million, but there aren't too many Owners remaining who are willing, next done is expected to closer $1.3 million. The shorthauls have done a complete U-turn, with Jubail/Jebel Ali firming to $265,000, which was a $55,000 jump in under 24 hours, Owners are now talking in excess $300,000. With the prompt position cleared out, next week should see the MRs firm, but with a weak LR1 market, these will compete for the shorthaul cargoes, given current levels. The theme for this week in North Asia this week has been one of downwards adjustment, unfortunately for Owners. At the end of last week, a decent flow of cargoes combined with positive Owner sentiment drove the market up, but this week, cargo volume has dwindled and at the time of writing $510K is on subjects for MR Korea/Singapore – a $40K drop on last done, which, in terms of Far East mentality, is a big correction. This is also largely due to pressure from the weaker LR1s, which in many cases are cheaper than the MRs, and some Owners would realistically do low $500K levels now. The Singapore market, against the odds, has managed to hold fairly steady and that now the WCI-AG MR market looks more positive, it should stay stable next week. Singapore/Australia is fixing at 30kt x ws180 levels right now. Mediterranean____________________ An active week for the most part and Handy rates remain buoyant with the West Med settling close to 30 x ws 210 with positions tighter than the East Med, which as a result has been softer fixing in the 30 x ws 200-205 bracket. Black Sea has been relatively quiet for exports and a few specific deals concluded 30 x ws 190-195, but more widely considered 37 x ws 200-210 depending dates. MRs have seen a positive number of Med enquiries, but due to all the ballasting ships TA rates have been slipping and remain under pressure with 37 x ws 180 last done from UKC and considered similar from the Med. West Africa premiums are being tested in light of a falling TC2 market, but a rising USG market and last done ex UKC 37 x ws 205 levels, would suggest similar for a Med load. Markets East of Suez showing some signs of improvement, but the West remains a better prospect so this route is very Owner dependent, last done to Redsea around $1.1-1.2m. UK Continent_____________________ A real slow off in demand for Flexis through to MRs this week on the Cont. Rates have subsequently slipped across the board as the tonnage lists lengthens. TC2 has now slumped to 37 x ws180 and with more ships now appearing on the list we expect rates to come under further pressure. West Africa also slips to 37 x ws 205, although with the USG firing West Africa rates likely to stay firmer. Flexi's and handies have a slow week, 22 x ws 240 still the conference rate and 30 x ws 190 levels on the handies. LRs on the other hand have yet another strong week. A slow start on the LR1s but the list tight enough to keep rate at 60 x ws150 levels as cargos trickled in. Nap still in strong demand to the East, with a number of LR2s being worked for Med / East - $2.9-3.0m levels are still being achieved. Caribbean________________________ What a week for the USG. After a number of "nearly" weeks with a tight list but not enough cargos, the ULSD arb finally swung open, and rates reacted accordingly. From LR2s to MRs, vessel’s were in demand and Owners made the most where they could. 38 x ws160+ now for TC14 and the possibility to firm further, USG/Brazil trading firm up at 38 x ws190. LRs have been a talking point the Gulf, as LR2s now being paid 80 x ws100 for USG/TA and LR1s $2.5m going East. DIRTY Y PRODUCTS Handy______________________ _________ __ Stea ady is the e most applicable adjective e to desscribe the U UKC marke et this wee ek; consiste ently low w level inqu uiry has made m a relatively sim mple task k of picking g off the naturally po ositioned sh hips. Thus, in turn, rrates have e flattened d at ws 15 55 XUKC C with little e positive stimulation to move ffrom this point. UK KC - Med will remain compettitive while the Med d sits 20 points p highe er . Med sships will be less likkely to ballast to the e UKC; loo king furth her forwarrd this shou uld create a shortag e of unitts in the UK KC so keep p an eye on dates ass we n mov ve closerr to the e Christma as season trad ditionally fo orward fixin ng occurs. Med d rates clo ose the week 10 poin nts up ex B lack Sea a with th he prope ensity to firm furtther. Con ndensed inquiry allied with a shortage e of vesssels with re eliable itine eraries has led to the bull run on ratess. Forwa ard fixing is occurrring con ntributing tthe growin ng hype su urrounding the fixin ng window w up to 17tth. Taking a ship witth a second voya age option n should be b more o of a con nsideration n in the current market m tre end. Expect ex Bla ack Sea to move above a ws 200 nexxt week a and it will naturally drag X-M Med num mbers with it. The traditiional 10p point next diffe erential will be wide ened at the e start of n wee ek with X-M Med laggin ng behind. MR R________ _________ _________ ________ As suspected d, last we eeks Afram max flurry was likely to be only o short liived, and with Aframax rate es tumbling it was only a matter m of time t beffore their smaller s co ompanions followed suit. How wever as the wee ek progre essed roa aring inqu uiry from the Blackk Sea natturally rela ayed onto the MRss causing a new rising cycle and figh ht back, albeit a sma all one. How far thiss will go remains to o be seen b but with fo orward fixin ng in the back of our mindss we expe ect growth h to con ntinue pulling the Easst Med alo ong with it. The West Med and Contine nt doesn't seem to have h a generic g fixing level w which leaves the doors ope en for both h Owners a and Chartterers to ba attle out each voy yage indiviidually. Furrther inquirry as we run down n into Ch ristmas will be the real gam me chang ger otherw wise we expect e a little surp prise in this market. Panamax__________________ __________ Afte er a week that startted on a back b foot, the sub bsequent finish to the e week be egins to le eave Ow wners with a lifted outlook on o what iss to follo ow. Activ vity over in n the US has made e an imp pact to the e availabilitty of units where at time t of writing w leve els approac ch the 50/150 mark, and it’s here in th hat leavess the mark ket ponde ering the next mov ve! Any ssubsequen nt reliance e on ballast tonnage from th he US is lik kely to be met with h inflated id deas cove ering ex UK KC. Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments - Spot Worldscale wk on wk Dec Last Last FFA change Week 64 Month 56 Q1 15 50 AG-Japan TD3 VLCC TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC -4 4th 60 -16 80 96 83 84 TD7 Aframax N.Sea-UKC -7 102 109 107 110 Dirty Tanker Spot Market Developments - $/day tce (a) wk on wk Dec Last Last FFA change Week 62,000 Month 48,000 Q1 15 42,500 AG-Japan TD3 VLCC TD20 Suezmax WAF-UKC -2,250 4th 59,750 -9,500 38,250 47,750 36,500 46,750 TD7 Aframax N.Sea-UKC -3,750 26,750 30,500 27,500 31,500 Clean Tanker Spot Market Developments - Spot Worldscale AG-Japan TC1 LR2 TC2 MR - w est UKC-USAC AG-Japan TC5 LR1 TC7 MR - east Singapore-EC Aus wk on wk Dec Last Last FFA change Week 113 Month 128 Q1 15 -5 4th 108 -39 189 229 140 133 -6 112 118 134 103 -3 180 183 181 Clean Tanker Spot Market Developments - $/day tce (a) AG-Japan TC1 LR2 TC2 MR - w est UKC-USAC AG-Japan TC5 LR1 TC7 MR - east Singapore-EC Aus wk on wk Dec Last Last FFA change Week 28,500 Month 35,000 Q1 15 +0 4th 28,500 -7,750 29,750 37,500 16,500 16,500 -250 20,250 20,500 25,500 17,000 +750 19,250 18,500 18,250 (a) based on round voyage economics at 'market' speed LQM Bunker Price (Rotterdam HSFO 380) -43 370 412.5 436.5 LQM Bunker Price (Fujairah 380 HSFO) -50 413 462.5 470 LQM Bunker Price (Singapore 380 HSFO) -44 419 462.5 460.5 MR/JH/JD/DP/SLK Produced by Gibson Consultancy and Research Visit Gibson’s website at www.gibson.co.uk for latest market information E.A. GIBSON SHIPBROKERS LTD., AUDREY HOUSE, 16-20 ELY PLACE, LONDON EC1P 1HP Switchboard Telephone: (UK) 020 7667 1000 (International) +44 20 7667 1000 E-MAIL: [email protected]: 94012383 GTKR G FACSIMILE No: 020 7831 8762 BIMCOM E-MAIL: 19086135 This report has been produced for general information and is not a replacement for specific advice. While the market information is believed to be reasonably accurate, it is by its nature subject to limited audits and validations. No responsibility can be accepted for any errors or any consequences arising therefrom. No part of the report may be reproduced or circulated without our prior written approval. © E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd 2014.
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