Glaxosmithkline Consumer Taller, Stronger, Sharper Your success is our success n Rs 45bn MFD category is represented by Horlicks, Boost, October 14, 2013 Rating Previous Reco Accumulate Accumulate CMP Rs4,472 Target Price Rs4,200 EPS Chg CY13E/CY14E (%) NA/NA Target Price change (%) NA Nifty 6,113 Sensex 20,608 Bournvita and Complan. The category has undergone product, customer and market development n Players’ efforts are channelized towards: a) distribution expansion, b) product offering, and c) roping new consumers. Collective efforts should augment category growth n Heinz is aggressive than the rest, but a serious challenger to GSK Consumer is nowhere in sight n Strong brand with inherent pricing capability is reassuring. Maintain Accumulate, with a price target of Rs4200/share Price Performance (%) 6M 12M MFD category largely represented by three players -4 10 48 -7 -3 35 The malted food drinks (MFD) category is largely represented by brands such as Horlicks, Boost, Bournvita and Complan. The top three players alone account for about 90% of the Rs 45bn MFD category. GSK Consumer is the market leader, with about 65% share led by its lineage brands , ’Horlicks ’ and ’Boost’. Cadbury’s Bournvita and Heinz’s Complan are the other top players in this category. 1M 3M Absolute -4 Rel. to Nifty -8 Source: Bloomberg Relative price chart 5900 Rs % 100 5300 80 4700 60 4100 40 3500 20 2900 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 GlaxoSmithkline Consumer (LHS) 0 Oct-13 Aug-13 In the last few months, the category has come ‘ALIVE’ and is beaming with ‘ACTION’: 1) the active usage of media by new players such as Endura and Pediasure, 2) stakes and pitch have risen by roping in celebrities to endorse products , and 3) differentiation in product offerings and differentiated communication strategy adopted by the challenger, Bournvita and Complan. Rel to Nifty (RHS) Collective efforts by players would augment category growth Source: Bloomber g Stock Details Sector Consumers SKB IB Bloomberg 421 Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value(Rs) 10 No of shares o/s (mn) 42 6,348/ 2,901 52 Week H/L Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn) 188/ 3,064 Daily Avg Volume (No of sh) 19,654 Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn) 1.4 Shareholding Pattern (%) Sep'13 Mar'13 Dec'12 Promoters 72.5 72.5 43.2 FII/NRI 11.6 11.2 15.4 Institutions 0.6 0.7 16.1 Private Corp 2.0 2.1 9.9 13.4 13.6 15.4 Public But stakes have increased; all players in the arena Source: Bloomberg We inspected category dynamics, product portfolio, product pricing, communication plan and business strategy of key players in the MFD category. We conclude that efforts of players are channelized towards : a) distribution expansion, b) new product offerings , c) eyeing new consumers , and d) exploring rural India. In our opinion, these industry efforts on a collective basis should augment growth of the MFD category in the long run. Heinz is aggressive than the rest, but challenger to GSK Consumer is nowhere in sight Heinz is aggressive than the rest of the players, with an inherent drive to minimize the gap with GSK Consumer. It is evident from its efforts to augment its portfolio offerings and engage in price competition. But we remain unfazed, and rule out a meaningful impact on GSK Consumer with its Rs 5bn outlay on A&P spends. It is a daunting task for competitors to surpass this summit. In our opinion, a serious challenger to GSK Consumer is nowhere in sight. We maintain an Accumulate rating on GSK Consumer, with a price target of Rs4200 (30x CY14E earnings). YEPritesh Chheda [email protected] +91-22-66121273 Prashant Kutty [email protected] +91-22-66121341 Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. (Rsmn) Financial Snapshot (Standalone) Dec Net EBITDA EPS EPS RoE EV/ (%) P/E EBITDA P/BV Sales (Core) (%) APAT (Rs) % chg CY11A 27,650 5,045 18.2 3,552 84.5 19.2 33.8 52.9 35.1 16.4 CY12A 31,875 5,734 18.0 4,368 103.9 23.0 34.9 43.1 30.2 13.8 CY13E 36,230 6,889 19.0 5,098 121.2 16.7 34.1 36.9 25.0 11.6 CY14E 41,333 7,848 19.0 5,820 138.4 14.2 32.7 32.3 21.4 9.7 1 Company Update Emkay © Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Refreshing category dynamics to set the tone for discussion Exhibit 1: Malted Food Drinks - Category Dynamics MFD category has grown at a 16 % CAGR over last 7 years GSK is the market leader in MFD category with a 65 % share 10% 10 5% 0 0% MFD Category (Rs bn) Heinz 14% MFD Penetration in India % penetration Urban Rural 41% 12% All India 22% Total Popn – 105 gm Popn 2 yrs-44 yrs – 140 gm Penetrated Popn – 637 gm Others 2% GSK Consumer 65% % growth India MFD Penetration is abysmally low, more so rural areas MFD Consumption Abbot 2% Cadbury 17% CY12 CY11 20 CY10 15% CY09 30 CY08 20% CY07 40 CY06 25% CY05 50 Urban Rural Consumption On Urban Penetrated Popn – 989gm On Rural Penetrated Popn – 170 gm Growth drivers in the MFD category § § § § § § Higher advent of malnutrition in India Youth is over 50% of Indian population Increased urbanization; Higher disposable income All-India penetration at a mere 22%; Huge opportunity Per capita consumption offers upside as well Untapped market; Scope for better distribution MFD category growth led by penetration and consumption Deciphering MFD Category Growth CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 Volume Led MFD 6.8% 9.8% 16.1% 10.0% 13.2% 8.9% 5.7% Population Led 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Penetration Led 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% Consumption Led 1.4% 4.6% 11.0% 5.1% 8.4% 3.9% 0.7% Price Led 4.4% 5.7% 4.9% 7.1% 4.8% 6.7% 8.8% 11.5% 16.2% 21.7% 17.8% 18.6% 16.3% 15.0% Category Growth (Value) MFD Category volumes (tons) grown at 9.8% CAGR (05-12) 132509 140000 120000 15% 100000 80000 20% 67821 10% 60000 40000 5% 20000 0 0% CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 Volumes (tons) Emkay Research October 14, 2013 % growth MFD Avg. Realization (Rs/kg) grown at 6.1 % CAGR (05-12) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 340 10% 8% 225 6% 4% 2% 0% CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 Avg Realization (Per Kg) % growth 2 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update What are the product offerings in the market? Product offering ranges from general nutrition to special offerings The MFD category has seen significant upgradation in product offerings , which have addressed specific requirement and preferences of a much wider audience. The product offerings now encompasses plain malt nutrition drink for kids to flavoured malt drink (chocolate, vanilla and strawberry) to health and nutrition drink for different customers (women, mothers and adults). The portfolio also construes specialized offerings for memory development, under-nourishment, weight gain, etc. GSK is the only player in this category, which has a full product portfolio that straddles across the consumer segment and price points. Heinz is mimicking GSK and attempting for a full product portfolio. Cadbury is primarily focused on kids’ nutrition through Bournvita and Bournvita Lil’ Champs. A few incumbents such as Endura, Abbot, and Zydus Wellness have entered the category with a differentiated product offering, though they are yet to make a mark. Exhibit 2: Product Offerings of MFD players Company Horlicks Malt GSK Consumer Products Boost Junior Horlicks 2 Horlicks Chocolate Junior Horlicks 1 Horlicks Gold Complan Original Mother’s Horlicks Horlicks Pro Mind Complan Chocolate Complan Memory Horlicks Lite Maltova Complan Nutrigro Women’s Horlicks Viva Nutriful Maplan P & L Heinz India Bournvita Bournvita 5-star Magic Bournvita Lil’ Champs Cadbury India Medinn Belle Endura Mass Enzest Endura Kidkilos Abbot Zydus Wellness Pediasure Actilife Source: Company, Emkay Research GSK’s product offering straddles across customer segments Although they have not achieved a generics stature, ‘Horlicks ’ and ’Boost’ from GSK are highly successful brands in the MFD category. GSK has made ‘Horlicks’ most relevant to consumers by addressing needs and preferences of a wider audience. Horlicks has product offerings for kid’s nutrition, general nutritional needs of the entire family, nutritional needs of women and mothers, specific needs such as memory development, vitamin deficiency and protein deficiency. Also, product offerings are available across price points , thereby making them relevant for a much large audience; spanning both urban and rural consumers . Emkay Research October 14, 2013 3 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update What is customer charged for the MFD extravagance? The product offerings are available at varied pricing points from Rs 328/Kg to Rs 1230/Kg. The basic variants of Horlicks and Bournvita are priced at Rs330-340/Kg, whereas Complan at Rs416/Kg. Specialized offerings like mind development is priced at Rs560-580/Kg, kid’s nutrition at Rs412-470/Kg and women’s nutrition at Rs460/Kg. Premium offerings for special needs is priced at Rs1230/Kg (Pediasure). The extent of premiumization in the MFD category is a 4X base offering. The steep price relative to other packaged foods makes it an urban-centric category. It aptly justifies urban penetration at 41% as against rural penetration at 12% and all-India penetration at 22%. Exhibit 3: Sub-segment-wise Product Prices General Nutrition 200gm 500gm 1000gm Horlicks - Original 90 182 344 Junior Horlicks 1 Bournvita 90 188 335 Junior Horlicks 2 Boost* 210 Complan - Original 92 182 Amul Pro Kids & Infants 200gm Bournvita Lil' Champs 416 140 125 Complan Nutrigro* 500gm Need Based Nutrition 500gm 206 Horlicks Pro Mind* 238 206 Horlicks Gold 216 230 Complan Memory 228 238 Endura Kidkilos 525 Pediasure* 492 * 400gm * 450 gm * 400 gm Flavours Horlicks - Chocolate 200gm 500gm 1000gm 90 172 328 Adult Nutrition 500gm Women & Pregnancy Horlicks Lite - Malt 200 Women's Horlicks* Horlicks Lite - Chocolate 217 Mother's Horlicks Boost - Choco Éclair^ 210 Bournvita 5-star magic 188 335 Complan Nutriful 416 500gm 230 166 326 Maplan L Complan - Chocolate 109 200 Enzest 290 Maplan P Complan - Kesar Badam* 120 240 Actilife* 160 * 400 gm Complan - Pista Badam* 120 240 * 250 gm Complan - Strawberry 200gm 198 ^ 450 gm, * 400 gm Source: Company, Emkay Research Horlicks and Boost turn dearer by the day GSK has taken regular price hikes on ‘Horlicks ’ and ‘Boost’, with an annual price hike of 5-7%. Last pricing actions on ‘Horlicks ’ and ‘Boost’ were 5% in July 2012 and January 2013, respectively. Currently, GSK product offerings are priced thus: lower-end at Rs328/kg for Chocolate Horlicks and upper-end at Rs625/kg for Mother’s Horlicks . The ability to undertake sustained pricing action demonstrates brand strength, demand inelasticity and high profitability. Exhibit 4: Sustained pricing actions Exhibit 5: High m argins have sustained in the last 3-5 years 20% 70% 25% 20% 15% 65% 15% 10% 10% 60% 5% 5% 0% Volume-led growth Source: Company, Emkay Research Price-led growth Gross Margin CY12 CY11 CY10 CY09 CY08 CY07 CY06 CY05 CY04 -5% 0% CY03 55% CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 EBIDTA Margins Source: Company, Emkay Research An anecdotal evidence of a recent survey conducted by us in a tier-2 location indicated that an MFD product is a regular in a consumer’s monthly shopping basket. As per the assessment of a few local kirana shops in that location, a monthly budget for a four-member home (two adults and two children) of Rs 1000/month includes 1 no 500gm malted beverage. This suggests that a strong distribution reach of larger players like GSK Consumer and Cadbury, along with the introduction of low unit packs (LUPs) sachets, is driving penetration in tier-2/3 and rural markets. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 4 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update MFD category sees Product, Customer and Market development The MFD category development encompasses product, customer and market development. The category leader, GSK, should be credited for driving the process. Heinz is following suit in product development. Product Development; Traversed from kid’s nutrition to family nutrition to specific needs Over and above base offerings of Horlicks, Complan and Bournvita, there are 23 products offerings further extended to multiple variants and multiple packaging formats. Horlicks Malt itself has morphed into Horlicks Chocolate, Junior Horlicks, Women Horlicks, Horlicks Gold, Horlicks Life and Horlicks Pro-Mind. The product offerings have a price range of Rs328-1230/kg. The extent of premiumization in the MFD category is the 4X base offering. Customer Development; Traversed from kid’s to adult Players have made brands relevant for consumers by addressing needs and preferences of a wider audience. MFD offerings have traversed from addressing nutrition requirements of kids to general nutrition for family and specific offerings for women, mothers and the youth. Horlicks has product offerings for kid’s nutrition, general nutrition needs of the entire family, nutritional needs of women and mothers, as well as specific needs such as memory development, vitamin deficiency, protein deficiency, etc. Exhibit 6: Key product offerings in the MFD Space General Nutrition Infants & Kids Health & Lifestyle Women/Pregnancy Mind Development Added Nutrition Source: Company, Emkay Research Market Development; recruiting new customers and tapping the market Penetration of the MFD category in urban areas has gradually improved to 41% over the years, but rural areas still remain an underpenetrated market at a mere 12%. Players have introduced low unit packs (LUP) to recruit new customers in tier-2 and rural markets . Horlicks, Bournvita and Complan have lower SKUs at Rs 5/25 for 18gm/90gm in rural markets . Growth in LUP is 30% p.a., a healthy contributor in category growth. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 5 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Discussing communication strategy adopted by brands? The category is characterized by GSK Consumer as the top spender, with an A&P outlay of Rs 5bn or 16.1% of revenues . Recently, media activity in the category has soared, and players are aggressive on communication and advertising (above the line) and promotions (below the line). Given below is a media pitch and communication strategy of brands . Horlicks – Communicating clinically proven functional benefits of the product § Horlicks has multiple product offerings; its communication strategy revolves around functional benefits of the product. § Best example is “Taller, Sharper, Stronger,” highlighting the five growth areas : more bone area, more muscles, better concentration, active nutrients and healthier blood. § Other communications of Horlicks are: (1) “Increase the power of milk” (2) “Epang, Opang, Jhapang,” depicting Iron, Vitamin C and Vitamin D requirements. § Horlicks is roping in consumers from rural markets through rural-centric initiatives like HUT activities (advertisement through magic shows). Exhibit 7: Communication strategy of Horlicks, Junior Horlicks, Women’s Horlicks and Horlicks Gold) Source: Company, Emkay Research Boost – ‘Secret of Energy’ § Boos t is positioned as a nutritional energy drink; especially for children. The celebrity endorsement for Boost dates back to 1977. "Boost is the secret of my energy" has the highest recall amongst consumers . § Endorsement by celebrities (sportsmen) has helped in brand building and business development. Consistent communication has made brand trustworthy. § Recent change in communication is ‘Boost is the secret of OUR energy’ as against ‘Boost is the secret of MY energy’. Exhibit 8: Consistent communication ‘Boost is the secret of our energy’ Source: Company, Emkay Research Bournvita – Riding on differentiated communication § Bournvita has resorted to differentiated communication to showcase functional benefits. Communication strategy is oriented towards developing emotional connect with brand, and functional benefits remains the soft message. § Most successful communication of Bournvita in recent times is “Tayyari Jeet Ki”; Bournvita has used emotional connect between a mother and her child to convey functional benefits of the product. § ‘Bournvita Lil’ Champs for Kids aged 2-5 years . Communication message is “Doodh ka calcium waste nahin hota hai”. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 6 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Industry experts’ comments on Bournvita communication strategy and its TV campaigns Jagdeep Kapoor, Samsika Marketing - Bournvita needs to move up the perception ladder with consistent aggression in the category and prove that from preparing to win, it can actually become a winner. Vispy Doctor, MD, Ormax Consultants - Bournvita has always had a two-pronged strategy in its communication. While mothers are expected to feel good about buying into the rational benefits of health and wellness, for kids it is more about the taste and fun of drinking Bournvita. Narayan Sundararaman, ED, Cadbury Kraft Foods - We want to take the fight to the market leader. Both Boost and Bournvita are brown malted drinks and have been direct competitors. Horlicks has always been the market leader, with almost 45% share in the category. We are seeing the potential in the health and wellness segment and want to grow in this space. There could be also more variants based on fortification and more age groups Exhibit 9: Bournvita – ‘Taayari Jeet Ki’ where Child competes with Mother Bollywood actress Kajol as mother learning from the child Source: Company, Emkay Research Complan – Cross-fire § Complan has the best brand recall, thanks to its message: “I am a Complan Boy” and “I am a Complan Girl”. But the catch phrase seems to have faded over time. § Even Complan has tuned its communication on showcasing functional benefits . On quite a few occasions, it has collision with competing brands. For example, a recent advertisement features mothers comparing functional benefits of Complan and Horlicks . § At present, it has resorted to pricing actions as well. There is a Rs20 off on flavored offering of Complan. Exhibit 10: Complan (I am a Complan Boy, I am a Complan Girl, Complan vs. Horlicks: Good Mom, Bad Mom , Rs 20/off on Complan) Source: Company, Emkay Research Kidkilos – Celebrity endorsement is the way § Endura Kidkilos is targeted at kids in the age group 3-10 years. It is marketed as a nutrition supplem ent promising weight gain. Juhi Chawla is the brand ambassador. Brand communication highlights functional benefits of the product. Pediasure – An exotic health drink targeted at the rich class § Priced at Rs 1088/Kg, Pediasure is premium offering in the category. It is marketed as a health drink for kids aged 2-10 years, promising complete and balanced nutrition. § Brand communication is “Complete Nutrition, Complete Peace of Mind”. It showcases clinically proven 37 vital nutrients for height and weight gain, reduce the number of sick days and cuts down incidences of infection. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 7 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Exhibit 11: Endura Kidkilos endorsed by Juhi Chawla Company Update Abbott’s Pediasure – specially targeted at kids aged 2-10 years Source: Company, Emkay Research What is the growth strategy deployed by players? GSK Consumer – Perfect moves by category leader § Horlicks has traversed from kid’s nutrition to adult nutrition. It has product offerings for kid’s nutrition, general nutrition needs of the entire family, nutrition needs of women and mothers, specific needs like memory development, vitamin deficiency, protein deficiency, etc. § Horlicks Malt itself has morphed into Horlicks Chocolate, Junior Horlicks, Women Horlicks, Horlicks Gold, Horlicks Life and Horlicks ProMind. The product offerings have price range of Rs 344-476/Kg. Horlicks has achieved premiumization of 1.4X base offering. § Given the low penetration for the MFD category in rural areas (12%), GSK is augmenting its distribution infrastructure, especially in rural and under-penetrated areas . GSK has introduced low unit packs (LUPs) and increased promotional activities to drive growth in these markets. Exhibit 12: Deciphering GSK Consumer Value growth and its sustainability Deciphering GSK Consumer Growth CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 Volume Led 6.8% 9.9% 16.2% 10.0% 13.3% 9.0% 5.8% Population Led 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Penetration Led 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% Consumption Led 1.4% 4.6% 11.0% 5.1% 8.4% 3.9% 0.7% Market Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Price Led 4.4% 5.7% 4.9% 7.1% 4.8% 6.7% 8.8% 11.5% 16.2% 21.8% 17.9% 18.7% 16.3% 15.0% GSK Consumer Value Growth Source: Company, Emkay Research Cadbury – Stationed in North and West § Even Cadbury is tapping rural markets through distribution expansion, promotional activity and low unit packs (LUPs ). The brand has launched ‘Mission Nutrition’ to reach one million households in small towns of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. § Bournvita has a strong presence in northern and western regions, which are relatively under-penetrated compared to south ern and eastern regions. Cadbury is planning to increase its penetration in northern and western regions, traditional stronghold for the company. Heinz – Matching the pace of category leader § Heinz is matching the footsteps of the category leader. Complan has done product development and customer development, and kept the brand relevant for current times. The product portfolio includes Complan Original, Complan Chocolate, Complan Memory, Complan NutriGro, Complan Nutriful and Maplan P&L. Medina Belle – New products on the block § Base portfolio of Endura is nutrition and health supplement for sportsmen, gym enthusiast, etc. New launches of Enzest & KidKilos address nutrition requirements of adults and weight management for kids , respectively. These product offerings are specialized and premium priced compared to base offerings in the category. Abbott – Absolutely luxurious § Pediasure is another high-priced superior formulation product targeted to premium consumers. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 8 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update What are the visible changes in the category? Premiumisation in the category at its fore Despite MFD being discretionary in nature, premiumization remains unabated with sustained product innovation in this category. New products have driven expansion of customers beyond kids (adults, women) and aided 30-90% premiumisation over the base offering, while products such as Endura KidKilos and Pediasure addressing the specific nutritional needs such as weight gain, vitamin C and proteins are priced at a premium (2X-4X) to the base offering. Media intensity has substantially risen among MFD players The category is characterized by GSK Consumer as the top spender, with an A&P outlay of Rs 5bn or 16.1% of revenues. Recently, media activity in the category has soared, with players becoming aggressive on communication and advertising (above the line) and promotions (below the line). New products such as Endura KidKilos and Pediasure have celebrity endorsements . Only positive emerging is that players are competing on media spends and not on pricing, depicting the inherent strength of the category. Players focused on product innovation and renovation Product offerings have traversed from addressing nutrition requirements of kids to general nutrition for family and specific offerings for women, mothers and the youth. Being priced at a premium to the base offering, these innovations are driving premiumisation in the category. The companies have also experimented with packaging. Innovations are expected to drive category growth in the ensuing years. Expanding distribution to tap under-penetrated market While urban still remains the key market, players are gradually expanding their distribution network in rural areas, given the low penetration of MFD and huge potential for growth. To facilitate these objectives, players such as GSK and Cadbury’s have introduced recruiter packs priced at Rs25 for 90gms/100gms. Rural-specific initiatives are implemented to reach new customers and augment category growth. Heinz is aggressive than the rest; Needs close vigilance? Heinz is No 3 in India: Although being an old brand and holding lineage in India, Complan has lost to Horlicks and concurrently occupies No. 3 spot in the category. We believe this is due to two factors: lack of innovation and high competition. Ties few loose-ends: Heinz has initiated: (1) innovations and concurrent product development like Complan Kesar Badam, Complan Pista Badam, Complan with Memory Chargers, Complan NutriGro, Maplan L and Maplan P and (2) product offerings targeting both kids and adults. Presently, it has resorted to pricing actions as well. There is Rs20 off on a flavored offering of Complan. Complan is priced at premium to Horlicks – A few observations worth noting: (1) 500gm Complan - Chocolate is priced at Rs200 vs. Rs172 for 500gm Horlicks – Chocolate vs. Rs188 for 500gms Bournvita; premium of 12-15% (2) 1kg Complan – Chocolate is priced at Rs416 vs . Rs328 for Horlicks Chocolate and Rs335 for Bournvita; at a premium of 25%. A high price premium could favour competition. But why does Heinz still lack the punch? – A few arguments are: (1) Complan lacks innovation relative to Horlicks and (2) Complan is relatively weaker in distribution reach. This is despite Heinz being early entrant to India. Can any other player challenge the leader? – Barring Heinz, none of the other players in the category have the ability to challenge the market leader, GSK Consumer due to the following reasons: i) lack of product portfolio, ii) limited distribution reach, and iii) willingness for a sustained A&P spend. GSK Consumer with its first-mover advantage in India, coupled with a strong brand equity and large A&P outlay would always pose a serious challenge to incumbents. GSK Consumer’s Rs 5bn A&P budget; No challenger in sight GSK has the highest A&P spend; It’s build a fort GSK Consumer’s A&P spends has risen from Rs 0.8bn in CY01 to Rs 5bn in CY12; which is a CAGR of 18% in the CY01-12 period. The stakes have increased from 9% of revenues in CY01 to 16% of revenues in CY12. Commensurate efforts have also been made towards the product portfolio. The outcome is consistent volume growth of 8-10% for the last decade. GSK symbolizes the category and vice-versa. But the media intensity has risen with players becoming aggressive on communication and advertising (above the line) and promotions (below the line). However, GSK Consumer is at the top with Rs 5bn A&P outlay, which is too difficult to surpass for competitors . Certainly, there is no challenger in sight. Emkay Research October 14, 2013 9 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Exhibit 13: A&P spends have been rapidly rising over the years 6000 Exhibit 14: EBIDTA margin movement when A&P rises 20% 5000 25% 20% 15% 4000 Company Update 15% 10% A&P spends % of sales A&P spend as % of sales Source: Company, Emkay Research CY12 CY11 CY10 CY09 CY08 CY07 0% CY06 0% CY12 CY11 CY10 CY09 CY08 CY07 CY06 CY05 CY04 CY03 0 5% CY05 1000 10% 5% CY04 2000 CY03 3000 EBIDTA Margin% Source: Company, Emkay Research What Rs 5bn A&P budget means? Colgate is a good comparison What does Rs 5bn A&P budget means? We have drawn a comparison between Colgate and GSK Consumer. The underlying premise for both players is alike: i) focus on a single category, ii) strong product portfolio, iii) strong brand equity, iv) market leadership, and v) high A&P spends . If Rs 6bn A&P budget of Colgate is perceived as an entry-barrier for P&G in India, the same logic should also hold true for GSK Consumer. Exhibit 15: Comparison of Colgate with GSK Consumer based on key financial metrics Colgate Financial Metrics Revenues (Rs bn) GSK Consumer FY13 30.8 FY14E 35.1 FY15E 40.8 CY12 30.8 CY13E 34.9 CY14E 39.8 % growth 17.5% 14.0% 16.2% 14.7% 13.4% 13.9% %volume-led 10.0% 10.7% 11.1% 5.8% 7.6% 8.0% 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 8.8% 5.4% 5.4% 4.9 6.0 6.7 5.0 5.6 6.4 A&P % of sales 15.9% 17.1% 16.3% 16.1% 16.1% 16.1% Gross Margins% 59.5% 59.7% 59.9% 62.3% 62.2% 62.3% EBIDTA Margins% 18.8% 20.2% 21.7% 15.1% 16.0% 15.8% 5.0 5.4 6.6 4.4 5.1 5.8 % growth 11.3% 9.1% 21.4% 23.0% 16.7% 14.2% EPS (Rs) 36.5 39.9 48.4 103.9 121.2 138.4 ROCE% 148.9% 138.1% 143.1% 54.2% 53.0% 50.4% ROE% 107.4% 97.7% 100.2% 34.9% 34.1% 32.7% % price-led A&P spends (Rs bn) PAT (Rs bn) P/E - 30.8 25.4 - 36.9 32.3 FCF Yield (%) - 32.% 3.9% - 1.4% 2.7% Source: Company, Emk ay Research Exhibit 17: One-year forward P/E Band of Colgate 2000 GCHL-P/E band 6000 Colgate-P/E band 32x 1500 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research October 14, 2013 1000 24x 500 16x 8x Sep-12 Sep-11 Aug-10 Aug-09 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jun-06 Jun-05 May-04 0 May-03 Oct-13 Sep-12 Aug-11 Aug-10 Jul-09 Jun-08 May-07 Apr-06 8x Mar-05 1000 0 Feb-04 24x 16x Jan-03 32x 3000 2000 Jan-02 4000 Apr-02 5000 Oct-13 Exhibit 16: One-year forward P/E Band of GSK Consumer Source: Company, Emkay Research 10 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Annexure I – Major Players in MFD Category GSK Consumer – Horlicks, Boost Company Profile Key Products Portfolio § Market leader in the MFD segm ent, with a market share of over 60%. A strong presence in South and East. § Horlicks and Boost – Key products in MFD growing at 10% volumes and revenues of a CAGR of 17% (CY08-12). § Price maker in the MFD category; average price-led growth in the last 5 years is 7-8%. § Horlicks is a market leader with 50%+ share, while Boost has market share of 14%. § Strong brand with a wide reach in over 1.5mn outlets. GSK’s direct reach is 700000, while Horlicks alone is present in 1mnplus outlets. § Product portfolio – Horlicks, Boost, Junior, Lite, Women’s, Mother’s, Gold, Pro-Mind. § Company growing at revenue CAGR of 19% and 23% PAT CAGR in CY08-12. § About 75-80% of revenues in the MFD segment comes from Horlicks . § MFD segment alone accounts for 90% of revenues . § Horlicks is sold in multiple packs and multiple price points. Horlicks base product is available from Rs 5/18g to Rs 515/2000g. Target Customer Segment Comments on Business § Horlicks – Great Family Nourisher § Horlicks acts as an umbrella brand for categories like noodles, biscuits, health snack and breakfast, among others . § Boost – Energy Drink for Children § Junior Stage 1 – Above 2 Years § Junior Stage 2 - Preschoolers § Women’s – Women Between 19-50 years § Mother’s – Pregnant Mothers § Eyeing a higher market share in North and West, traditionally weak markets . § Business drivers are A&P spends and distribution expansion. § Rural India is a huge opportunity; penetration at 12% vs . 41% in urban India. § Lite – Diabetics and Health Conscious Adults § Gold – Superior Nutrients for Children § Pro-Mind – Energy Drink for Kids and Adults Key Ad campaigns Horlicks Pro Mind Horlicks Gold Emkay Research October 14, 2013 Women’s Horlicks Horlicks Lite Junior Horlicks Horlicks 11 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Cadbury’s – Bournvita Company Profile Key Products Portfolio § Present in MFD since 1948, among the oldest brand in India § Bournvita is available in 2 flavours, Bournvita – Chocolate and Five Star Magic – Chocolate & Caramel Flavor § Rs 7bn brand and contributes nearly 20% to Cadbury Kraft Foods India’s revenue § 17% overall value market share, with market leadership in North at 36% share and 29.2% share in modern trade § Bournvita Lil Champs is a specially formulated drink with DHA for toddlers § Strong presence in North & West; aims to strengthen its presence further § Has forged an emotional connect with consumers rather than prophesying claims like ‘Taller’, ‘Sharper’ and ‘Smarter’ Target Customer Segment Comments on Business § Bournvita is largely targeted for kids in their growth phase (514 years) § Relatively low consumption of malted foods in North and West remains key business challenge § Bournvita Lil Champs targeted for kids age 2-5 years § 2-pronged communication strategy; educate mothers about health & wellness and attract kids on taste premise § Reaching out to small towns in Rajasthan, UP, Maharashtra and Gujarat through ‘Mission Nutrition’ and targeted 1mn households § LUP are sold at Rs 25 (90 gm); trying to make inroads into rural India § Brand communication showing head-on collision with market leader Horlicks and Boost § Brand communication not built to showcase functional benefits § South is Horlicks fiefdom, focused on North & West and especially rural India Key Ad Campaigns Tayyari jeet ki! Emkay Research October 14, 2013 Bournvita Lil’ Champs Lil’ Champs – Print Ad 12 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Heinz – Complan Company Profile Key Products Portfolio § Launched by Glaxo in 1954 and acquired by Heinz in 1995. § Complan – The COMplete PLANned food with 34 vital nutrients available in 7 flavours. § It’s a Rs 6-7bn brand growing at a CAGR of 20% over the past 4 years. Complan has a market share of 14% in the MFD segment § Complan is priced at a premium of 15-30% to competing brands . § Despite being a heritage brand, Complan lacked innovations and lost to competition. § Complan Memory with 8 memory chargers. § Complan Nutri Gro – a health drink for kids aged 2-4 years available in 3 flavours . § Nutriful – Multigrain Family Drink with 30 vital nutrients and available in 2 flavours . § Maplan P&L is for pregnant as well as lactating mothers. Target Customer Segment Comments on Business § Complan is targeted at adolescent child aged 5-15 years . § Heinz’s high-priced product has worked well for competition at a time when consumer spending is slowing. Getting the pricing strategy right by offering price-offs in Complan. § Complan Memory – Child aged 7-12 years. § Complan Nutri Gro – Infant aged 2-4 years. § Nutriful – Family health drink. § Off late, Heinz is mimicking Horlicks; the large portfolio includes Maplan, Nutriful, NutriGro and Complan Memory. § Maplan P for pregnant women and Maplan L is a supplement for lactating mothers . § Mantra caters to all target segments: kids, women and family Key Ad campaigns Complan for Growth Nutriful Emkay Research October 14, 2013 Complan Boy & Complan Girl Maplan L & Maplan P 13 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Medinn Belle – Endura Kidkilos Company Profile Key Products Portfolio § Started in 1996 with a laxative named Raahat focused towards health and wellness. § Endura Mass is the flagship product for weight gain and available in 3 flavours . § Extended into bodybuilding and fitness by launching Endura in 2001, which was well-accepted in Indian markets and became the no. 1 selling weight-gainer in 5 years. § Gym -based products of Endura – First, Force, Mega Lean Mass, E-pro Blast, Ultra Whey Pro, Creatine § Has partnered with Solae, US, an established name in soybased technologies. Medinn Belle sources its key ingredients for its products from Solae. § Gym premiere products – Endura premium series are health supplements , ranging from gym starters to advanced levels of bodybuilding § Enzest – Energy boosting supplement for adults § Forays into gym based products and health products like Enzest and Kidkilos . § Kidkilos – Offering for kids and endorsed by Juhi Chawla. Available in 2 flavours – Chocolate and strawberry. Target Customer Segment Comments on Business § Endura Mass - Gain weight for adults. § Targets to become a leader in the food supplements industry in India. § Gym -based Endura products – targeted purely for regular gym goers, gym trainers and bodybuilders . § Gym premiere products – Endura premium series purely for body builders . § Forayed beyond professional gym -based and weight-gain products into general nutrition requirements for kids and family. § Enzest – For adult above 30 years. § Kidkilos – For child aged 3-10 years. Key Ad campaigns Endura Kidkilos Emkay Research October 14, 2013 Enzest Endura Mass 14 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Abbott - Pediasure Company Profile Key Products Portfolio § Pediasure is Abbott’s hallmark brand, which is a nutritional supplement for children in the growth stage § Formulated with 37 vital nutrients, PediaSure is clinically proven to help increase height and weight, reduce the number of sick days and cut down incidences of infection. § PediaSure also contains nutrients such as Taurine, Choline and Omega 3 and 6 to support brain development in children. Target Customer Segment Comments on Business § Pediasure – For Children aged 2-10 years § A premium product offering compared to competition. Key Ad campaigns Pediasure Kids Ad on Children’s Day Emkay Research October 14, 2013 Pediasure TV Commercial 15 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Key Financials (Standalone) Income Statement Balance Sheet Y/E Dec (Rsmn) Net Sales CY11A 26,855 Growth (%) CY12A 30,794 CY13E 34,933 CY14E 39,776 Y/E Dec (Rsmn) Equity share capital CY11A 421 CY12A 421 CY13E 421 CY14E 421 16.5 14.7 13.4 13.9 Reserves & surplus 11,021 13,189 15,857 18,903 22,606 2,584 26,141 3,011 29,341 3,416 33,486 3,890 Net worth Minority Interest 11,442 0 13,610 0 16,278 0 19,324 0 Other Exp SG&A 935 4,374 1,166 4,965 1,183 5,632 1,526 6,413 Secured Loans Unsecured Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 5,045 5,734 6,889 7,848 Loan Funds 12.1 13.7 20.1 13.9 18.2 460 4,585 18.0 361 5,373 19.0 514 6,375 19.0 613 7,235 16.6 853 35 16.9 1,138 24 17.6 1,221 24 5,403 1,851 6,487 2,119 7,572 2,474 Expenditure Employee Cost Growth (%) EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation EBIT EBIT margin (%) Other Income Interest expenses PBT Tax Effective tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0 -399 11,043 -616 12,994 -616 15,662 -616 18,708 Gross Block Less: Depreciation 6,367 4,360 6,562 4,624 9,062 5,138 9,562 5,751 17.5 1,433 24 Net block 2,007 1,938 3,924 3,811 Capital work in progress Investment 1,492 0 1,972 0 0 0 0 0 8,644 2,824 Current Assets Inventories 16,927 3,700 21,018 3,696 23,021 4,435 27,774 5,050 Sundry debtors Net deferred tax liability Total Liabilities 34.3 32.7 32.7 32.7 992 1,126 974 1,109 3,552 19.2 4,368 23.0 5,098 16.7 5,820 14.2 Cash & bank balance Loans & advances 10,797 1,439 14,642 1,553 16,127 1,486 19,923 1,692 Net Margin (%) (Profit)/loss from JVs/Ass/MI 12.8 0 13.7 0 14.1 0 14.1 0 Other current assets Current lia & Prov 0 9,383 0 11,935 0 11,284 0 12,878 Adj. PAT After JVs/Ass/MI 3,552 4,368 5,098 5,820 Current liabilities 6,636 8,414 7,359 8,399 E/O items Reported PAT 0 3,552 0 4,368 0 5,098 0 5,820 Provisions Net current assets 2,747 7,544 3,521 9,083 3,924 11,738 4,479 14,897 PAT after MI Growth (%) 3,552 19.2 4,368 23.0 5,098 16.7 5,820 14.2 Misc. exp Total Assets 0 11,043 0 12,994 0 15,662 0 18,708 CY11A CY12A CY13E CY14E CY11A CY12A CY13E CY14E 4,550 5,349 6,351 7,211 460 35 361 24 514 24 613 24 EBITDA Margin Net Margin 18.2 12.8 18.0 13.7 19.0 14.1 19.0 14.1 -627 -413 -943 2,090 0 -1,171 0 638 ROCE ROE 53.4 33.8 54.2 34.9 53.0 34.1 50.4 32.7 -332.7 -220.8 -312.0 -861.1 84.5 103.9 121.2 138.4 95.4 272.1 112.4 323.6 133.5 387.1 153.0 459.5 DPS 58.3 49.5 57.8 66.0 Valuations (x) PER 52.9 43.1 36.9 32.3 P/CEPS P/BV 46.9 16.4 39.8 13.8 33.5 11.6 29.2 9.7 Adjusted PAT Growth (%) Cash Flow Key Ratios Y/E Dec (Rsmn) PBT (Ex-Other income) Depreciation Interest Provided Other Non-Cash items Chg in working cap Tax paid Y/E Dec Profitability (%) -1,809 -2,242 -2,474 -2,824 Operating Cashflow Capital expenditure 3,907 -853 5,543 -773 3,245 -528 5,662 -500 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS Free Cash Flow Other income 3,055 853 4,770 1,138 2,717 1,221 5,162 1,433 CEPS BVPS Investments RoIC 0 0 0 0 -1,252 0 -3,772 0 -520 0 -493 0 Loans Taken / (Repaid) Interest Paid 0 -35 0 -24 0 -24 0 -24 Dividend paid (incl tax) -2,452 -1,711 -2,430 -2,774 6.6 5.6 4.9 4.2 0 6 0 -20 0 1,214 0 1,426 EV / EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) 35.1 1.3 30.2 1.1 25.0 1.3 21.4 1.5 Financing Cashflow Net chg in cash -2,481 175 -1,755 16 -1,240 1,484 -1,372 3,797 Gearing Ratio (x) Net Debt/ Equity -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 Opening cash position 9,761 10,797 14,642 16,127 Net Debt/EBIDTA -2.1 -2.6 -2.3 -2.5 Closing cash position 10,797 14,642 16,127 19,923 Working Cap Cycle (days) -43 -64 -44 -44 Investing Cashflow Equity Capital Raised Income from investments Others Emkay Research October 14, 2013 EV / Sales 16 Glaxosmithkline Consumer Company Update Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. 7th Floor, The Ruby, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar - West, Mumbai - 400028. 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