Main Economic Developments
January 09, 2015
Research and Monetary Policy Department
Daily data are updated on every Thursdays (previous office day if it is a holiday). Other data are updated on the
announcement day at 16.00
Contents
Inflation Developments
p. 3-13
International Developments
p.14-30
Labor Market Developments
p.31-36
Balance of Payments Developments
p.37-49
Public Finance Developments
p.50-56
Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments
p.57-71
Financial Markets Developments
p.72-82
Economic Activity Developments
p.83-101
2
Inflation Developments
3
CPI and Special CPI Indicators
(Annual Percentage Change)
14
CPI
H
I
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
4
CPI and Subgroups
(Annual Percentage Change)
35
Services
Core goods
Food
Energy
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: December 2014.
5
Services Inflation
(Annual Percentage Change)
25
Other
Communication
Transport
Restaurants and hotels
Rent
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
6
Inflation Trend
Main Inflation Indicators
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
H
I
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
7
Inflation Trend
Services Prices
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
8
Inflation Trend
Core Goods Prices
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: December 2014.
9
Inflation Trend
Diffusion Index
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Average)
CPI
H
0,6
0,60
0,5
0,50
0,4
0,40
0,3
0,30
0,2
0,20
0,1
0,10
0,0
0,00
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Diffusion index is calculated as the ratio of the number of items with increasing prices minus
the number of items with decreasing prices to total number of items within a given month.
Last Observation: December 2014.
10
Contribution to Annual Inflation
(Percentage Points)
14
Energy
Services
Core goods
Food
Alcoholic bev. tobacoo and gold
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: December 2014.
11
Domestic PPI
(Annual Percentage Change)
25
Domestic PPI
Manufacturing Industry Prices
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
12
Inflation Expectations
(Annual Percentage Change)
10
24 Months
12 Months
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Source: CBRT
Last Observation: December 2014.
13
International Developments
14
Global Inflation
(Annual Percentage Change)
10
Advanced Countries
Developing Countries
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: November 2014.
15
Core Inflation
(Annual Percentage Change)
Developing Countries
Advanced Countries
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, CBRT.
Last Observation: November 2014.
16
Global Growth
(Annual Percentage Change)
10
Advanced Countries
Developing Countries
Developing Countries excluding China and India
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3
17
Global Policy Rates
(Percent)
Advanced Countries
14
Developing Countries
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Last Observation: November 2014.
18
PMI (Manufacturing)
Eurozone
Japan
China
US
50
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
Source: Markit.
Last Observation: December 2014.
19
Markit Global PMI Indices
70
Manufacturing
New Export Orders (Manufacturing)
Services
70
65
60
60
55
50
50
45
40
40
35
30
Source: Markit.
30
Last Observation: November 2014.
20
US House Prices (January 2005 = 100)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
130
Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (USA nationwide)
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: September 2014.
21
Unemployment Rates
(Percent)
14
US
UK
Japan
Eurozone
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: November 2014.
22
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices
(January 2005 = 100)
350
Energy
Industrial Metals
Agriculture
Headline
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 08 January 2015.
23
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices
(Annual Percentage Change)
120
Headline
Energy
Industrial Metals
Agriculture
120
70
70
20
20
-30
-30
-80
-80
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 08 January 2015.
24
Risk Appetite VIX
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
25
Spread (OIS Spread)
(Percent)
4,0
Euro
US Dollar
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,5
-0,5
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 08 January 2015.
26
GIIPS Countries: Yield Spread
(over Bunds)
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Greece (right axis)
18
36
16
32
14
28
12
24
10
20
8
16
6
12
4
8
2
4
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
GIIPS: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Last Observation: 08 January 2015.
27
GIIPS Countries: Unemployment
(Percent)
30
Portugal
Ireland
Italy
Greece
Spain
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Last Observation: October 2014.
28
Capital Flows
(Billion US dollars)
All developing countries, weekly fund flows
Equities
10
Bonds
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
Source:EPFR.
Last Observation: 31 December 2014.
29
Capital Flows
(Billion US dollars)
All developing countries, 52-week cumulative
Equities
95
Bonds
95
70
70
45
45
20
20
-5
-5
-30
-30
-55
-55
-80
-80
Source: EPFR.
Last Observation: 31 December 2014.
30
Labor Market Developments
31
Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Unemployment Rate (%)
18
Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%)
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: September 2014.
32
Employment
(Thousand People)
21000
20000
19000
Non-farm Employment
Farm Employment (right axis)
6600
6300
6000
18000
5700
17000
5400
16000
5100
15000
14000
4800
13000
4500
12000
4200
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: September 2014.
33
Participation Rate
(Percent)
52
51
Participation Rate %
Non-farm Labor Force/Population 15+ (%) (right axis)
42
41
40
50
39
49
48
47
38
37
36
35
46
34
45
44
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
33
32
Last Observation: September 2014
34
Employment by Sectors
(Thousand People)
2200
Construction
Industrial (right axis)
5700
2000
5400
1800
5100
1600
4800
1400
4500
1200
4200
1000
3900
800
3600
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: September 2014.
35
Employment by Sectors
(Thousand People)
14000
Services
14000
13000
13000
12000
12000
11000
11000
10000
10000
9000
9000
8000
8000
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: September 2014
36
Balance of Payments Developments
37
Foreign Trade
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Billion USD)
25
23
25
Import
Export (excluding gold)
Export
Import (excluding gold)
Import (excluding energy)
23
21
21
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
9
7
7
5
5
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: November 2014.
38
Real Import and Real Export
(Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Real import
Real import (exc. gold)
Real export
Real export (exc. gold)
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: September 2014.
39
Real Import and Real Export
(Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly)
Real import
Real import (exc. gold)
Real export
Real export (exc. gold)
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q2.
40
Current Account Balance
(Seasonally Adjusted, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Current Account Balance (excluding gold)
Current Account Balance (excluding energy)
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: October 2014.
41
Current Account Balance
(12-month rolling, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance (excluding energy)
Current Account Balance (excluding gold)
Current Account Balance
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
-70
-70
-80
-80
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: October 2014.
42
Current Account Balance
(Percent of GDP)
Current Account Balance / GDP
Current Account Balance / GDP (excluding energy)
Current Account Balance / GDP (excluding gold)
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q2.
43
Main Sources of External Finance*
(12-month cumulative, Billion USD)
Portfolio and Short Term**
FDI and Long Term*
CAD
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
Source: CBRT.
-20
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds
issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors'
short term net credit and deposits in banks.
Last Observation: October 2014.
44
Main Sources of External Finance*
(3-month cumulative, Million USD)
Portfolio and Short Term
FDI and Long Term
CAD
35
35
30
30
25
20
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
0
-5
5
0
-10
-5
-15
-10
Source: CBRT.
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and
bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking
and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks.
Last Observation: October 2014.
45
Real Exchange Rate
CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate
(2003=100)
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
46
Real Exchange Rate
CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate *
(2003=100)
5,0
5,0
4,9
4,9
4,8
4,8
4,7
4,7
4,6
4,6
4,5
4,5
4,4
4,4
Source: CBRT.
*Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm.
Last Observation: December 2014.
47
Real Exchange Rate
CPI Developed Countries Based Real Effective Exchange Rate*
(2003=100)
5,0
5,0
4,9
4,9
4,8
4,8
4,7
4,7
4,6
4,6
4,5
4,5
4,4
4,4
Source: CBRT.
*Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm
Last Observation: December 2014.
48
Real Exchange Rate
CPI Developing Countries Based Real Effective Exchange Rate*
(2003=100)
5,0
5,0
4,9
4,9
4,8
4,8
4,7
4,7
4,6
4,6
4,5
4,5
4,4
4,4
4,3
4,3
4,2
4,2
Source: CBRT.
*Real effective exchange rate, natural logarithm.
Last Observation: December 2014.
49
Public Finance Developments
50
Contributions To Primary Expenditures
(12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change)
Capital Expenditures
Current Transfers
Good and Services Purchases
Compensation of Employees
Primary Expenditures
26
26
22
22
18
18
14
14
10
10
6
6
2
2
-2
-2
Source: Ministry of Finance.
* Principal items have been selected.
Last Observation: November 2014.
51
Contributions To Tax Revenues
(12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change)
VAT on Imports
Special Consumption Tax
Domestic VAT
Corporation Tax
Income Tax
Tax Revenues
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Source: Ministry of Finance.
* Principal items have been selected.
Last Observation : November 2014.
52
Central Government Budget Revenues and Expenditures
(12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
Budget Revenues
Primary Expenditures
26
26
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2015-2017).
* Medium Term Program (2015-2017) realization estimate.
** Medium Term Program (2015-2017) target.
Last Observation : 2014 Q3.
53
Central Government Budget Balance
(12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
Budget Balance
Primary Balance
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2015-2017).
* Medium Term Program (2015-2017) realization estimate.
** Medium Term Program (2015-2017) target.
Last Observation : 2014 Q3.
54
Program Defined Primary Budget Balance
(12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
Primary Budget Balance (Program Definition)
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2015-2017).
* Medium Term Program (2015-2017) realization estimate.
** Medium Term Program (2015-2017) target.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
55
EU Defined Public Debt
(As Percent of GDP)
Public Debt Stock
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2015-2017).
* Medium Term Program (2015-2017) realization estimate.
** Medium Term Program (2015-2017) target.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
56
Financial Intermediation and Loans
Developments
57
Total Loans*
(Year on Year Change, Percent)
45
45
40
40
Total Loan Growth
35
35
30
30
25
Total Loan Growth
(FX adjusted)
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
58
Total Loans*
(Year on Year Change, Percent)
Consumer Loans
Commercial Loans (FX adjusted)
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
59
Total Loans*
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
60
Commercial and Consumer Loans*
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Commercial Loans
60
Consumer Loans
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
61
Consumer Loans*
(13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent)
Housing
50
Other
Automobile
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
62
Total Loans*
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Total Loans (2014)
40
Total Loans (2007-2013)
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
63
Consumer Loans*
(13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent)
Consumer loans (2014)
40
Consumer loans (2007- 2013)
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
64
Commercial Loans*
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Commercial loans (2014)
40
Commercial loans (2007-2013)
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: CBRT.
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
65
Non-Performing Loans
(Percent)
Total Loans
Commercial Loans
Consumer Loans
7,0
7,0
6,5
6,5
6,0
6,0
5,5
5,5
5,0
5,0
4,5
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 02 January 2015.
66
Bad Cheque Ratio
(Percent)
Bad Cheque Ratio (number)
12
Bad Cheque Ratio (amount)
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
67
Loan Rates
(Flow, Annualized, Percent, 4 Week-Average)
26
Automobile
Housing
Commercial
Other
26
23
23
20
20
17
17
14
14
11
11
8
8
5
5
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
68
TL Commercial Loan Rate
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
24
Commercial Loan Rate
Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread (right axis)
8
22
7
20
6
18
5
16
4
14
3
12
2
10
1
8
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
69
TL Commercial Loan Rate
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
18
Commercial Loan Rate
Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards)
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
70
TL Commercial Loan Rate
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
7
Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread
7
Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards) - Deposit Rate Spread
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 26 December 2014.
71
Financial Markets Developments
72
Average Funding Cost of CBRT
Outstanding Value (Billion TL)
80
70
CBRT Average Fund Rate (Right Axis, Percent)
14
12
60
10
50
8
40
6
30
4
20
10
0
Source: CBRT.
2
0
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
73
BIST Repo-Reverse Repo Overnight Market Rates
(Percent)
Interest Rate Corridor
Repo-Reverse Repo Market Overnight Rates (5 Day MA)
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: BIST, CBRT.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
74
CBRT Rates and BIST Overnight Rates
(Percent)
Interest Rate Corridor
CBRT Average Funding Cost (5 day MA)
1 Week Repo Rate
Interbank Overnight Repo Rates (5 day MA)
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
75
Turkish Lira and Emerging Market Currencies
(01.11.2011=1, values vis-a-vis USD)
1,35
Turkey
Average of Emerging Economies
Turkey/Emerging Countries
1,35
1,30
1,30
1,25
1,25
1,20
1,20
1,15
1,15
1,10
1,10
1,05
1,05
1,00
1,00
0,95
0,95
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland,
Hungary, Czech Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, South Korea, Romania, Malaysia
and Philippines against USD.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
76
Implied FX Volatility
(1 month)
35
35
30
30
Turkey
25
25
Emerging Countries
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Source: Bloomberg.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Czech
Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
77
Implied FX Volatility
(12 months)
30
25
30
Emerging Countries
Turkey
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
Source: Bloomberg.
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Czech
Republic, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
78
Currency Basket and EMBI
2,80
Currency Basket
EMBI+ Turkey (right axis)
500
2,70
450
2,60
2,50
400
2,40
2,30
2,20
350
300
2,10
2,00
250
1,90
200
1,80
1,70
Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
150
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
79
EMBI
EMBI Europe
EMBI Turkey
EMBI Latin America
EMBI Asia
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
80
Relative EMBI
(03.01.2012=1)
EMBI Europe
EMBI Latin America
EMBI Asia
EMBI Turkey
1,40
1,40
1,30
1,30
1,20
1,20
1,10
1,10
1,00
1,00
0,90
0,90
0,80
0,80
0,70
0,70
0,60
0,60
0,50
0,50
0,40
0,40
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
81
Yields Across Maturities
(Percent)
0.5 year
1 year
2 year
4 year
10 year
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
Source: Bloomberg.
Last Observation: 07 January 2015.
82
Economic Activity Developments
83
Annual GDP Growth
(Percentage)
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
84
Contribution to Annual GDP Growth
(Percentage Point)
25
Change in Inventories
Net Exports
Final Domestic Demand
GDP
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
85
GDP
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
86
Millions
(1998 Constant Prices, Billion TL, Seasonally Adjusted)
Final Domestic Demand and Imports
(Seasonally Adjusted, Index 2008Q1=100)
130
Final Domestic Demand
Imports of Goods and Services
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
87
Imports and Exports
(1998 constant prices, billion TL, seasonally adjusted)
Exports of Goods and Services
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
88
Millions
Imports of Goods and Services
10
Quarterly Growth of GDP
(Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: 2014 Q3.
89
Industrial Production Index
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
125
125
120
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
Source: TURKSTAT.
Last Observation: November 2014.
90
Import Quantity Index
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: October 2014.
91
Capital Goods Production and Imports
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
140
130
Capital Goods Imports
Capital Goods Production (rhs)
150
140
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
70
60
Last Observation: For Production November 2014
For Imports October 2014.
92
Intermediate Goods Production and Imports
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
145
135
Intermediate Goods Imports
Intermediate Goods Production (rhs)
125
120
115
125
110
115
105
105
100
95
95
90
85
75
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
85
80
Last Observation: For Production November 2014.
For Imports October 2014.
93
Consumption Goods Production and Imports
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
130
Consumption Goods Imports
Consumption Goods Production (rhs)
125
120
120
110
115
100
110
90
105
80
100
70
95
60
90
50
85
40
80
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Last Observation: For Production November 2014.
For Imports October 2014.
94
Capacity Utilization Rate
(Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage)
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
95
Export and Domestic Orders Expectations Over the
Next Three Months
(Increase-Decrease, Seasonally adjusted)
Export
Domestic
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
96
PMI
(Seasonally Adjusted)
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
Source: Markit.
Last Observation: December 2014.
97
Real Sector Confidence Index
(Seasonally Adjusted)
125
125
115
115
105
105
95
95
85
85
75
75
65
65
55
55
Source: CBRT.
Last Observation: December 2014.
98
Investment Tendency
(Increase-Decrease, Seasonally Adjusted)
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
Source: CBRT.
*Question number 23 from Business Tendency Survey: Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your
fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months?
Last Observation: December 2014.
99
Consumer Confidence Indices
120
CNBC-e
TURKSTAT-CBRT
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
Source: CNBC-e, TURKSTAT, CBRT
Last Observation: For TURKSTAT –CBRT December 2014.
For CNBC-e December 2014.
100
Main Economic Developments
January 09, 2015
Research and Monetary Policy Department