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Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
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FX Focus:AUD/USD
Australia Nov home loan dropped 0.7%, worse than expected. But AUD was supported by the rebound of gold prices. AUD/USD once
rose to 0.8230 level. AUD/USD's short-term support is at 0.8033, and resistance is at 0.8370.
Currency Current Trend
Support / Resistance
Market commentary
AUD
↘
vs USD
vs HKD
0.8078 / 0.8276
6.2600 / 6.4200
Australia Nov home loan dropped 0.7%, worse than expected. But AUD was supported by the rebound
of gold prices. AUD/USD once rose to 0.8230 level. AUD/USD's short-term support is at 0.8033, and
resistance is at 0.8370.
EUR
↘
vs USD
vs HKD
1.1643 / 1.2144
9.0270 / 9.4160
S&P maintained Germany’s AAA rating. And the market expected that the European central bank would expand
the easing policies on 22nd meeting this month. EUR/USD was consolidating in a range of 1.1763-1.1870 levels.
EUR/USD's short-term resistance is at 1.21, and support is at 1.1754.
GBP
↘
vs USD
vs HKD
1.4920 / 1.5507
11.5700 / 12.0200
UK Nov manufacturing production rose 0.7% MoM, 2.7% YoY, both better than expected. The US Fed's indication
that a continued rise in non-farm payroll is not enough to support an early rate hike also supported GBP. GBP/USD
once rose to 1.5194 level. GBP/USD's short-term resistance is at 1.53, and support is at 1.50.
NZD
→
vs USD
vs HKD
0.7679 / 0.7927
5.9500 / 6.1500
New Zealand Nov building permits increased 10% MoM, better than the previous print. NZD/USD once
rose to 0.7865 level. NZD/USD's short-term support is at 0.7609, and resistance is at 0.7975.
RMB
↘
vs USD
vs HKD
6.1872 / 6.2320
1.2530 / 1.2440
China Dec CPI rose 1.5%, higher than last month. USD/CNH once fell to 6.2006 level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at
6.1750, and resistance remains at 6.2357.
CAD
↘
vs USD
vs HKD
1.1656 / 1.1982
6.6520 / 6.4710
Canada Dec unemployment rate remained at 6.6%, but employment decreased 4300. USD/CAD once rose to 1.1890
level. USD/CAD's short-term support is at 1.16, and resistance is at 1.20.
JPY
→
vs USD
vs HKD
117.42 / 120.20
6.6000 / 6.5000
USD/JPY was hovering in a range of 118.13-119.88 levels. The market is waiting for the release of PPI
data. USD/JPY's short-term support is at 115.57, and resistance is at 121.85.
* Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 20-days moving
average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 50-day moving average, can be used if needed.
Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways
→
↗
↘
Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency
Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency
RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 2.5% in Dec and said the recent decline in AUD was largely due
to strong USD. It also noted given the significant drop in commodity prices in recent months, AUD
remains above its fundamental value.Australia Nov home loan dropped 0.7%, worse than expected.
But AUD was supported by the rebound of gold prices. AUD/USD once rose to 0.8230 level.
AUD/USD's short-term support is at 0.8033, and resistance is at 0.8370.
↘
AUD
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
Market's Focus
vs HKD vs USD
6.3700
1.35%
6.3800
6.2274
6.2600
6.4200
0.8220
1.35%
0.8229
0.8031
0.8078
0.8276
(~) RBA kept its interest rate unchanged in Dec at 2.5%, in line with market expectation
(~) Australia Q3 CPI rose 2.3% YoY, as expected, in line with market expectation
(+) Australia employment increased by 42.7k in Nov, better than market expectation
(-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.7% YoY, worse than market expectation
AUD/HKD 6-month Chart
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
Jul-14
90 AUD/HKD
60
30
0
Jul-14
Aug-14
AUD/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
6-month 7-day RSI
Aug-14
Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
ECB kept its interest rate unchanged in Dec. ECB President noted there will be a reassessment of
existing monetary policy early this year.S&P maintained Germany’s AAA rating. And the market
expected that the European central bank would expand the easing policies on 22nd meeting this
month. EUR/USD was consolidating in a range of 1.1763-1.1870 levels. EUR/USD's short-term
resistance is at 1.21, and support is at 1.1754.
↘
EUR
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
Market's Focus
vs HKD vs USD
9.2000 1.1860
-1.39% -1.39%
9.3119 1.2006
9.1149 1.1753
9.0270 1.1643
9.4160 1.2144
EUR/HKD 6-month Chart
(+) Eurozone 3Q GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) rose 0.2% QoQ, better than expected
(-) Eurozone Dec CPI came in at -0.2% YoY, lower than market expectation
(+) Germany Dec unemployment rate arrived at 6.5%, better than expected
(+) Eurozone Dec manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.8, better than expected
EUR/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
10.60
10.30
10.00
9.70
9.40
9.10
Jul-14
Aug-14
90 EUR/HKD
60
30
0
Jul-14
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
6-month 7-day RSI
Aug-14
BoE noted UK's inflation may fall below 1%. It will tighten its monetary policy with a slower pace.UK
Nov manufacturing production rose 0.7% MoM, 2.7% YoY, both better than expected. The US Fed's
indication that a continued rise in non-farm payroll is not enough to support an early rate hike also
supported GBP. GBP/USD once rose to 1.5194 level. GBP/USD's short-term resistance is at 1.53, and
support is at 1.50.
↘
GBP
Sep-14
vs HKD vs USD
11.7700
-1.14%
11.8946
11.6579
11.5700
12.0200
1.5180
-1.14%
1.5336
1.5032
1.4920
1.5507
Market's Focus
(-) UK Q3 GDP rose 2.6% YoY, worse than expectation
(-) UK Nov CPI rose 1% YoY, worse than expectation
(~) Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged in Jan
(-) UK Oct 3-month unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6%, worse than market
expectations
GBP/HKD 6-month Chart
13.60
13.35
13.10
12.85
12.60
12.35
12.10
11.85
11.60
Jul-14
90 GBP/HKD
60
30
0
Jul-14
Aug-14
GBP/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
6-month 7-day RSI
Aug-14
y
Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
→
NZD
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
7.00
RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in December and lowered the inflation and interest rate
forecasts slightly. The growth of New Zealand property prices slowed down and RBNZ paused the
rate hike cycle.New Zealand Nov building permits increased 10% MoM, better than the previous
print. NZD/USD once rose to 0.7865 level. NZD/USD's short-term support is at 0.7609, and
resistance is at 0.7975.
Market's Focus
vs HKD vs USD
6.0700
1.68%
6.0970
5.9074
5.9500
6.1500
0.7830
1.68%
0.7864
0.7616
0.7679
0.7927
(~) RBNZ kept interest rate unchanged at 3.5% in Dec
(-) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1% YoY, below market expectations
(-) New Zealand Oct trade deficit was NZD 908 million, worse than expected
(+) New Zealand Q3 GDP(S.A) rose 1% QoQ, better than expected
NZD/HKD 6-month Chart
NZD/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
6.80
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
Jul-14
Aug-14
90 NZD/HKD
60
30
0
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
The PBoC loosened its monetary policy to sustain economic growth.China Dec CPI rose 1.5%, higher
than last month. USD/CNH once fell to 6.2006 level. USD/CNH's short-term support is at 6.1750, and
resistance remains at 6.2357.
↘
RMB
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
1.280
Sep-14
6-month 7-day RSI
Market's Focus
vs HKD vs USD
1.2490
0.28%
1.2500
1.2441
1.2530
1.2440
6.2090
0.28%
6.2327
6.2002
6.1872
6.2320
(-) China Nov industrial production rose 7.2% YoY, lower than expected
(+) HSBC China Manufacturing PMI final reading for Dec arrived at 49.6, higher than expected
(+) China Q3 GDP rose 7.3% YoY, higher than expected
(+) China Nov exports rose 4.7% YoY, better than expected
RMB/HKD 6-month Chart
RMB/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
1.260
1.240
1.220
Jul-14
90
60
30
0
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
RMB/HKD 6-month 7-day RSI
Aug-14
y
Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
BoC kept interest rate unchanged in Dec. BoC President noted the slide in oil prices is a downside risk
to Canada’s economy and inflation, but this is partly offset by encouraging signs from the US
economy.Canada Dec unemployment rate remained at 6.6%, but employment decreased 4300.
USD/CAD once rose to 1.1890 level. USD/CAD's short-term support is at 1.16, and resistance is at
1.20.
↘
CAD
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
vs HKD vs USD
6.5400
-0.75%
6.6103
6.5193
6.6520
6.4710
1.1850
-0.75%
1.1889
1.1728
1.1656
1.1982
`
Market's Focus
(+) Canada Q3 annualised GDP rose 2.3%, better than expected
(-) Canada Nov CPI rose 2% YoY, lower than market expectation
(~) Canada Nov unemployment rate was 6.6%, in line with market expectation
(+) Canada Oct retail sales held steady MoM, better than expected
CAD/HKD 6-month Chart
7.40
CAD/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
7.20
7.00
6.80
6.60
6.40
Jul-14
Aug-14
90
CAD/HKD
60
30
0
Jul-14
Technical Analysis
12-Jan
Weekly change:
High
Low
Support*
Resistance*
Aug-14
90
60
30
0
Jul-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged in December. BoJ Governor said falling oil prices may drag
down inflation in the near term. USD/JPY was hovering in a range of 118.13-119.88 levels. The
market is waiting for the release of PPI data. USD/JPY's short-term support is at 115.57, and
resistance is at 121.85.
vs HKD vs USD
6.5500
1.61%
6.5662
6.4273
6.6000
6.5000
JPY/HKD 6-month Chart
7.70
7.50
7.30
7.10
6.90
6.70
6.50
6.30
Jul-14
Oct-14
6-month 7-day RSI
→
JPY
Sep-14
118.30
1.61%
120.64
118.04
117.42
120.20
Aug-14
Market's Focus
(-) Japan Dec Manufacturing PMI flash reading arrived at 52, worse than last month
(~) Japan Nov nationwide CPI ex fresh food (VAT included) arrived at 2.7% YoY, in line with
market expectation
(-) Japan Nov industrial production dropped 0.6% MoM, worse than market expectation
(-) Japan Q3 annualised GDP fell by 1.9%, worse than market expectation
JPY/HKD
10-day moving average
20-day moving average
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
JPY/HKD 6-month 7-day RSI
Aug-14
Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
Important Economic Data Release
Date
Events
Source: Bloomberg as of January 12, 2015
Reporting period
Analysts
Consensus
Previous
Actual
United States
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
Monthly Budget Statement
Import Price Index (MoM)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Business Inventories
Advance Retail Sales
Retail Sales Less Autos
Empire Manufacturing
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Philidelphia Fed
U. of Michigan Confidence
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Industrial Production
Dec
Dec
Weekly
Nov
Dec
Dec
Jan
Weekly
Weekly
Jan
Jan
Dec
Dec
Dec
12-Jan-15
12-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
Australia Home Loans
Australia Values of Loans MoM
China Trade Balance (USD)
China Exports YoY%
China Import YoY%
Australia Umemployment Rate
Australia Employment Change
Australia Participation Rate
New Zealand REINZ House Sales YoY%
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Italy Industrial Production wda (YoY)
Japan Current Account Total
Japan Bank Lending (YoY)
Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis
UK CPI (YoY)
UK CPI (MoM)
UK PPI output n.s.a. (MoM)
UK RPI (MoM)
UK PPI output n.s.a. (YoY)
UK RPI (YoY)
UK Core CPI YoY
UK Retail Price Index
France Consumer Price Index (YoY)
France CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)
Japan Japan Money Stock M2 YoY
Japan Machine Orders (MoM)
Japan Domestic CGPI (YoY)
Japan Machine Orders YoY%
UK RICS House Price Balance
Germany Consumr Price Index (MoM)
Germany Consumr Price Index (YoY)
Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)
Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)
Nov
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Nov
3.00
(2.90)
0.20
(0.10)
5.00
291.50
2,402.00
19.10
94.30
(0.40)
0.10
(0.10)
(56.82)
(1.50)
11.10
0.20
0.70
0.50
(3.58)
294.00
2,452.00
24.30
93.60
(0.26)
0.07
1.26
-
0.30
1.00
54.48
4.70
(6.70)
6.30
42.70
64.70
6.50
-
(3.00)
833.40
2.70
(766.60)
1.00
(0.30)
0.20
(0.20)
(0.10)
2.00
1.20
257.10
0.30
0.40
3.60
(6.40)
2.70
(4.90)
13.00
0.20
0.10
0.10
(0.20)
-
Regional
1.70
49.00
6.00
(6.20)
6.30
5.00
64.70
G7 Countries
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
13-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
14-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
16-Jan-15
(2.70)
139.50
(734.00)
0.70
0.10
(0.30)
0.10
(0.40)
1.60
1.30
257.40
3.60
4.60
2.10
(6.40)
9.50
0.20
0.10
0.10
0.20
Weekly FX Focus
12/1/2015
Central Bank Rate
FED Fund
Europe (ECB)
UK (BOE)
Austratlia (RBA)
New Zealand (RBNZ)
Current
0.25
0.05
0.50
2.50
3.50
Prior
0.25
0.05
0.50
2.50
3.50
Date
29-Jan-15
22-Jan-15
5-Feb-15
3-Feb-15
29-Jan-15
Canada (BOC)
Japan (BOJ)
Malaysia
Taiwan
Indonesia
Current
1.00
0.10
3.25
1.88
7.75
Prior
1.00
0.10
3.00
1.88
7.75
Date
21-Jan-15
21-Jan-15
28-Jan-15
-
Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 12 Jan 2015 before 9:00 am
Terminology:
Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go
lower.
Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further.
*Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold
conditions of an asset. The scale is 0 - 100 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >70 and oversold conditions when <30.
Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency’s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure
momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or
‘noise’, that can confuse interpretation.
This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.Customer should not rely on the
views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information.
Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information shown in this document is neither a recommendation, an offer, nor a solicitation for any investment product or service. The information contained in this document has
not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. Investors should carefully consider whether any investment products or services are appropriate for them in view
of their investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances.
Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy or completeness, and under no circumstances will
the Bank be liable for any loss caused by reliance on any opinion or statement made in this document. Except as specifically indicated, the expressions of opinion are those of the Bank only
and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set
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