1. business and industrial
2. company
3. earnings

Key Index
Danareksa Snapshot
Close
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
From Research:
Weekly Report: 2015 - the year of transformation (OVERWEIGHT)
Positive returns are typically recorded by the equity market in election
years and 2014 was no exception with the JCI ending the year 22.3%
higher at 5,227, making it the second-best performer in ASEAN. In 2015,
we expect this momentum to be sustained. In our view, lower spending
on fuel subsidies will pave the way for greater spending in more
productive sectors, creating a more conducive environment for
corporates in the longer run.
Construction Sector:
(OVERWEIGHT)
Infrastructure’s
compelling
story
From Today’s Headlines:
(please see our analysts’ comment inside)





LCGC: Agya and Ayla Selling Price to be Raised Again (BI)
Multistrada Delays Project in Egypt and Kazakhstan (BI)
Semen Indonesia Increase Capex to Rp7 T (ID)
United Tractors Bought Rp650 Billion Acset Shares (ID)
State-owned Contractors Pursue Targets (BI)
Date Payable
16-Jan-2014
14-Jan-2014
(US$ m)
5,220
(0.4)
(0.1)
306
1,483
(1.0)
(1.0)
910
Philippines
7,277
0.6
0.6
142
Malaysia
1,737
(0.9)
(1.4)
260
Singapore
3,328
(1.3)
(1.1)
641
Regional
China
3,351
3.6
3.6
69,935
Hong Kong
23,721
(0.6)
0.5
14,457
Japan
17,409
(0.2)
(0.2)
10,218
Korea
1,900
(0.8)
(0.8)
3,335
Taiwan
9,274
(0.4)
(0.4)
2,537
27,842
(0.2)
1.2
430
4,653
(1.6)
(1.8)
72,093
17,502
(1.9)
(1.8)
8,480
India
NASDAQ
Currency and Interest Rate
w-w
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
12,614
(1.4)
(2.6)
(1.8)
6.87
0.0
0.0
(0.4)
7.80
7.96
0.1
0.1
Rate
Rupiah
(Rp/1US$)
SBI rate
(%)
10-y Govt Indo bond
Hard Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
Coal
US$/ton
62
n/a
(1.9)
(26.2)
Gold
US$/toz
1,203
(0.1)
0.9
1.5
Nickel
US$/mt.ton
15,126
2.5
(9.6)
0.3
Tin
US$/mt.ton
19,515
(0.8)
(3.3)
0.4
Soft Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
Cocoa
US$/mt.ton
2,972
0.0
2.3
3.9
Corn
US$/mt.ton
149
3.4
5.9
(6.5)
Crude Oil
US$/barrel
Palm oil
MYR/mt.ton
Rubber
Pulp
53
(5.9)
(23.1)
(7.4)
2,262
(1.5)
5.9
(12.1)
USd/kg
151
(1.4)
2.4
(0.6)
US$/tonne
932
n/a
(0.2)
2.8
Coffee
US$/60kgbag
123
0.3
(2.3)
25.6
Sugar
US$/MT
381
0.4
(3.7)
(2.7)
Wheat
US$/mt.ton
216
1.3
(0.8)
(0.1)
Source: Bloomberg
Cash Announcement
Ex-Date
05-Jan-2014
05-Jan-2014
Vol
(%)
Thailand
From IDX:
Code
ADRO
AISA
Source: KSEI
Ytd
(%)
Asean - 5
Indonesia
Dow Jones
We remain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with a blanket BUY on all four
state-owned contractors. Our confidence is backed by the government’s
initiatives to accelerate the development of much-needed infrastructure
in the country. The new government will not only boost the number of
projects going forward but may also undertake capital injection in
infrastructure-related state-owned companies to better leverage their
balance sheets. Thus, if the government can deliver on its promises, the
state-owned contractors stand to enjoy multi-year expansion growth. All
in all, our Top Picks are PTPP and WSKT.
Company Highlight:
 WIKA – The king of the pack (WIKA IJ.Rp3,575.BUY.TP-Rp4,000)
 PTPP – Overtaking the biggest contractor (PTPP IJ.Rp3,540.BUY.TPRp4,100)
 WSKT – A high risk-rewards contractor (WSKT IJ.Rp1,405.BUY.TPRp1,650)
 ADHI – Betting on the government (ADHI IJ.Rp3,420.BUY.TP-Rp3,900)
Chg
Amount (Rp)
US$ 0.00094
8.5
See important disclosure on the back of this report
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14
Jakarta 10110
Indonesia
Tel
(62 21) 350 9777, 350 9888
Fax
(62 21) 350 1709
Our Research team and sector coverage:
Agriculture: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Automotive: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Auto Component: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512
Banking: Eka Savitri - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3509
Cement: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Coal: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
Construction: Joko Sogie - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512
Consumer: Jennifer Frederika Yapply - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508
Heavy Equipment: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
Media: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520
Metal Mining: Stefanus Darmagiri – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
Pharmaceutical: Armando Marulitua – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503
Property: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3506
Retail: Anindya Saraswati - [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3506
Strategy: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Telecommunication: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA – [email protected]; (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520
Utilities: Helmy Kristanto - [email protected]; (62-21) 2955 824
Our Sales team:
Ermawati A. Erman - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151
Asfarita Andalusia - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3134
Novrita E. Putrianti - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
Ehrliech Suhartono - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Yunita L. Nababan - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145
Bram Taarea – [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3127
Martin Joshua - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3126
Laksmita Armandani - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 Ext. 3125
Muhammad Hardiansyah - [email protected]; (62 21) 29555 888 Ext. 3109


Tuesday, 6 January 2015
OVERWEIGHT
Foreign Fund Flow
FY2014 Regional Performance
Weekly Report
2015 - the year of transformation
Positive returns are typically recorded by the equity market in election years and 2014 was no
exception with the JCI ending the year 22.3% higher at 5,227, making it the second-best
performer in ASEAN. In 2015, we expect this momentum to be sustained. In our view, lower
spending on fuel subsidies will pave the way for greater spending in more productive sectors,
creating a more conducive environment for corporates in the longer run. At the same time, we
also believe that political risks will abate while a stronger currency will help boost corporate
margins.
2014: a year of high volatility
2014 was certainly full of surprises, especially on the political front in relation to the long-awaited
elections which were fiercely contested. The year got off to a shaky start with a challenging macro
environment marked by high IDR volatility and a continued slowdown in economic growth. Global
concerns took a back seat, however, and domestic factors continued to drive the market. Despite
the heightened political tensions, the JCI still managed to record a solid return – as has been the
case in previous election years. For the year of 2014, the JCI climbed an impressive 22.3% to 5,227,
making it the second-best performing ASEAN 5 market after the Philippines, and the fourth-best
performer in the region with China leading the pack with a huge 52.9% gain.
A return to inflows but outflows dominated toward the end of 2014
After the massive outflows in 2013, an improvement in economic conditions coupled with
elections exuberance helped give rise to inflows in 2014. Total inflows reached IDR42.6t vs
outflows of IDR40.1tn in the period May – December 2013, in which period the market collapsed.
Nonetheless, protracted IDR weakness to beyond the IDR12,500/USD level created jitters in the
market, as seen in the more consistent monthly outflows in 2H14. Despite the stronger inflows in
2014, market turnover was relatively low, however, and even lower than in 2013. Average trading
in 2014 only reached IDR6.0t/day, or down from IDR6.2t/day in 2013. Even so, this figure is still
much better than the average of IDR4.6t/day seen in 2008-12.
FY2014 Sector Performance
Helmy Kristanto
(62-21) 2955 5824
[email protected]
Armando Marulitua
(62-21) 2955 5817
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
at Reuters Multex and First Call
Direct and Bloomberg.
2015: an improving macro environment will create stronger foundations for corporates
We believe that 2015 will be the year of transformation in Indonesia with the establishment of
stronger foundations for structural change in the domestic economy going forward. In particular,
the government’s decision to raise fuel prices in November 2014 demonstrates its commitment to
this goal since the state budget is no longer at threat from ballooning fuel subsidies. Aided by
continued weakness in crude oil prices, the government finally decided to completely abolish fuel
subsidies on gasoline whilst, at the same time, setting a fixed subsidy of IDR1,000/liter on solar,
given that this fuel is widely used by public transportation. Despite the cuts in fuel subsidies, short
term macro-economic volatility will remain, however, especially as domestic prices (food and
transportation) are unlikely to be subdued in the short term despite the cheaper fuel prices. With
lower fuel subsidies, the way is opened for the government to undertake more aggressive
spending in more productive sectors such as infrastructure. Nonetheless, in any transformation
process, execution is key. In this regard, we have confidence in the new government’s capabilities
and, most importantly, in its political will to execute. Yet there are always risks associated with
any transformation process: most notably the spike in inflation following the fuel price hikes which
also raises the prospect of higher interest rates. This may prevent the market from making further
gains. Nonetheless, potential market downside looks limited, in our view, especially with the
expected major transformation of Indonesia's overall economy, which, over the longer run, would
create stronger foundations for business to flourish.
There are four main reasons to be bullish on Indonesia’s equity market:
1. From a macro perspective, we believe that Indonesia is still heading in the right direction.
Notably, there is less prospect of higher interest rates as inflation will more quickly normalize with
the recent fuel price cuts; 2. The reduction in fuel subsidies will provide the government with
plenty of room to boost spending in more productive sectors; 3. Political risk is gradually abating,
as evident in a more conducive working environment between the legislative and executive, and 4.
Improving macro-economic conditions will help give a timely boost to the rupiah.
6 January 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 1. Regional weekly performance
Exhibit 2. Regional FY2014 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2 Jan 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Dec 2014
Exhibit 3. Sector weekly performance
Exhibit 4. Sector FY2014 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2 Jan 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Dec 2014
Exhibit 5. Average daily transactions
Exhibit 6. Foreign fund flows
Source: IDX, as of 30 Dec 2014
Source: IDX, as of 2 Jan 2015
2
6 January 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 7. Regional market valuations
Exhibit 8. JCI Valuation
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Dec 2014
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Dec 2014
Exhibit 9. USD/IDR performance
Exhibit 10. CDS - 5 years
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2 Jan 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 2 Jan 2014
Exhibit 11. Danareksa bonds yield index
Exhibit 12. Country risk premium
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 2 Jan 2014
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 2 Jan 2014
3
6 January 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 13. Winners within our coverage
Exhibit 14. Losers within our coverage
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 2 Jan 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 2 Jan 2015
Exhibit 15. Winners within our coverage (Weekly)
Exhibit 16. Losers within our coverage (Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Dec 2014
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Dec 2014
Exhibit 18. One week report wrap
Date
Company
Title
Key Point
5-Jan-15
Tower Sector
A mixed bag growth outlook
2-Jan-15
Property Sector
Better days are coming
We expect the trend to continue with data traffic to grow by CAGR of 70% in 2015F-16F.
Also, the big three carriers have also launched LTE service, which may increase average
data consumption per capita. NEUTRAL.
We are confident that the sector will make further progress underpinned by continued
strong demand. We forecast marketing sales growth of 17.4% yoy in FY15F compared to
only 2.1% growth in FY14F. Improving liquidity in the banking sector will also support the
property sector since buyers can benefit from better funding availability. OVERWEIGHT.
30-Dec-14
Banking Sector
Optimism remains
We maintain our OVERWEIGHT recommendation on the banking sector despite the
challenging environment. Looking ahead, however, there is reason to be optimistic given
that macroeconomic developments may be more favorable with manageable inflation and
acceleration in government spending, particularly on infrastructure projects.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
4
6 January 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 19. JCI post fuel price hikes
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 20. Impact of fuel price hikes on 4W demand
Exhibit 21. Impact of fuel price hikes on 2W demand
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 22. Impact of fuel price hikes on cement demand
Exhibit 23. Impact of fuel price hikes on retail sales
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 24. Impact of fuel price hikes on loans growth
Exhibit 25. Impact of fuel price hikes on toll road traffic
5
6 January 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
Weekly Report
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas
6
Danareksa Quant Model
6 January 2015
Weekly Report
DQM model commentary:
Last week JCI recorded a positive return of 1.5% w-w on the back of a strengthening in all sectors. Entering a first full week in the 2015, our DQM model expects a strengthening on
the JCI as most big cap stocks are expected to record a positive w-w return. Despite this, however, our model find that some big caps stocks such as UNVR, BMRI, BBRI, SMGR, and
GGRM are expected to record negative w-w return. Overall, this week our model expects a positive performance on JCI. (Please see the detail on table above).
8
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
CONSTRUCTION/SECTOR UPDATE
Construction Sector
OVERWEIGHT
Infrastructure’s compelling story
WIKA relative to JCI Index
WIKA (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
01/01/14
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
We remain OVERWEIGHT on the sector with a blanket BUY on all four state-owned
contractors. Our confidence is backed by the government’s initiatives to accelerate
the development of much-needed infrastructure in the country. The new government
will not only boost the number of projects going forward but may also undertake
capital injection in infrastructure-related state-owned companies to better leverage
their balance sheets. Thus, if the government can deliver on its promises, the stateowned contractors stand to enjoy multi-year expansion growth. All in all, our Top
Picks are PTPP and WSKT.
PTPP relative to JCI Index
PTPP (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
01/01/14
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
WSKT relative to JCI Index
WSKT (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
250
200
150
100
50
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
01/01/14
0
ADHI relative to JCI Index
ADHI (LHS)
Rp
Structural changes are coming
The new government led by President Jokowi is intent on accelerating the nation’s
infrastructure development to ease logistical costs. The first initiative taken by the
government was the reduction in fuel subsidies which has freed up around Rp100tn of
state funds. Going forward, the government will undertake other initiatives to support
infrastructure development: 1) the plan to almost double the combined budget of the
Public Works and Transportation Ministry from Rp111tn in FY14F to Rp205tn in the
FY15F revised state budget coupled with plans to hasten project tenders by March-April
2015; 2) the State-owned Ministry’s proposal to lower dividend payouts for state-owned
companies; and 3) potential capital injection from the government to state-owned
companies which is directly related to infrastructure development. All in all, confidence
among state-owned contractors is high and their guidance of 25-30% growth in earnings
in FY15F is sensible following the flattish performance in 2014.
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
100
80
60
40
20
0
Capital for leverage
As state-owned contractors will see a strong multi-year supply of government projects,
equity size might become a key consideration for state-owned contractors in the future.
The company with the largest equity will obtain the biggest opportunity to win sizeable
projects given its greater leverage. In our view, the government’s initiative to lower
dividend payouts will have only a marginal impact although the government’s proposal
to undertake capital injections will be the game changer, especially for PTPP and ADHI
given the government’s ownership already limited at 51%. Even so, without any equity
raising, we believe that the state-owned contractors are still able to handle up to
Rp200tn in their order books given that the current leverage during the peak quarter is
still at 2.0x (vs. covenants of 3.5-4.0x).
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
01/01/14
-20
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Valuations moving towards the peak of the cycle
With the government’s strong commitment toward infrastructure spending coupled
with better execution, we believe that the state-owned contractors stand to be the
direct beneficiaries of the expected infrastructure developments in the future. At
current valuations, investors already appear to price in this bullish scenario of multi-year
growth. Thus, valuations might move towards the peak of the cycle (+2sd above mean –
29x PE) to account for the high growth expectations. All in all, we reiterate our
OVERWEIGHT call on the sector. Our Top Picks in our construction universe are PTPP
(BUY, TP Rp4,100) given its strong earnings visibility and credibility in water projects that
have strong potential given Jokowi’s emphasis on maritime development and WSKT
(BUY, TP Rp Rp1,650) given its huge carry-over projects and the government intention of
capital injection in the company. Potential upside comes from better-than-expected
new contracts achievement that would directly lead to higher earnings growth. Key risks
include lower-than-expected infrastructure budgets, poor government execution, and
potential increases in interest rates.
6 January 2015
Construction Sector
Exhibit 1. Substantially higher budgets…
Exhibit 2. …lead to huge order book size
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Companies, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 3. Equity to leverage
Exhibit 4. Valuation toward up-cycle period
Source: Companies, Danareksa Sekuritas
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 5. Valuation table
Company
Recommendation
Sector
WIKA IJ
PTPP IJ
WSKT IJ
ADHI IJ
OVERWEIGHT
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target Price,
Rp
PE
FY15F, x
EV/EBITDA
FY15F, x
EPS CAGR
FY13-15F, %
ROE
FY15F, %
Net gearing
FY15F, %
4,000
4,100
1,650
3,900
21.3
26.0
22.5
21.9
14.7
10.1
10.7
10.0
11.6
7.9
21.8
21.6
34.6
29.6
1.5
21.3
15.4
27.1
20.5
22.4
39.7
8.9
17.1
40.0
92.7
Source: Bloomberg as of 5 January 2015, Danareksa Sekuritas
2
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE
Wijaya Karya
BUY
Target Price, Rp
4,000
Upside
11.9%
WIKA IJ/WIKA.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (mn)
3,575
6,134
Market Cap, Rp bn
21,929
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
1,739
4.5
WIKA relative to JCI Index
WIKA (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
01/01/14
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Market Recommendation
BUY
16
HOLD
SELL
2
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Our
4,000
137
26.0
Cons
3,238
134
26.6
WIKA remains the first entry point for investors to ride Indonesia’s infrastructure
growth story given its wide range of businesses. The company has the largest market
cap, a balanced business model and sound corporate governance. As such, we believe
that WIKA deserves its premium rating over its state-owned peers. Utilizing a SOTP
valuation during the sector up-cycle, we arrive at our Target Price of Rp4,000, implying
FY15F/16F PE of 29.1/24.4x and PEG of 0.8x. BUY.
The first proxy to Indonesia’s infrastructure story
WIKA is the first choice for investors seeking to tap into Indonesia’s infrastructure upcycle considering it has the largest market liquidity in the sector, the most diversified
business portfolio and prudent corporate governance. This is reflected in its current
shareholding structure with 19% of the shares held by foreign investors, or higher than
the figure of 10-15% for its state-owned peers. Currently, the general construction
(infrastructure, building, and EPC) remains the core business comprising 60% of the total
revenues albeit only contributing 40% of the total earnings. Thus, the precast and
property businesses continue to be the earnings driver going forward given its higher
profitability. The good thing about WIKA’s balance business model is it should help
support continued growth whilst also providing a cushion against volatility in the
industry. In our view, these strengths justify WIKA’s premium valuation.
New contracts accelerating since October 2014
WIKA’s new contracts progress has accelerated from only Rp11.5tn in 9M14 to Rp15.1tn
in November 2014. Amidst cut-backs in government projects in 2014, the company
made several strategic moves such as venturing into overseas projects. Overseas
projects, which are prudently managed in regard to payment terms, are lucrative to the
company since they offer better gross margins. For 2015, however, we are more upbeat
on the outlook for government spending and expect a larger budget allocation to result
in a higher portion of government projects. Having said that, we expect new contracts
accelerates to Rp22.8tn in FY15F from Rp18.6tn in FY14F.
4
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
The king of the pack
% Diff
23.5
2.2
-2.3
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Higher gearing as the cost of growth
Aside from its existing businesses, WIKA still seeks to diversify its income streams. For
next year, WIKA has earmarked Rp1.7tn for capex, some of which will be used to
undertake acquisitions and investments in new businesses such as water treatment, gas
pipes, and power plants. Accordingly, higher gearing is inevitable, we believe. Hence,
going forward, we estimate that WIKA’s interest costs will increase to 0.9% of its
revenues compared to 0.5% historically.
Revenues, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
2013
9,905
963
33.3
476
500
82
25.6
Net cash
45.9
43.7
7.7
22.4
0.5
11,885
1,356
40.8
570
668
109
33.0
8.9
38.5
32.8
6.8
16.4
0.5
2014F
13,244
1,600
18.0
617
711
116
6.5
3.4
35.6
30.8
4.4
13.8
0.6
2015F
16,504
2,102
31.4
843
932
152
31.0
8.9
26.0
23.5
3.7
10.7
0.6
2016F
19,486
2,538
20.7
1,004
1,098
179
17.8
10.1
21.8
20.0
3.2
8.9
0.6
6 January 2015
Wijaya Karya
Exhibit 1. Profit and loss, Rp bn
Revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Income from JO
Gross profit incl. JO
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Net interest expenses
Other income (expenses)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Minority interest
Net profit
Core profit
2012
9,905
8,947
958
198
1,155
(285)
870
0
(38)
833
(309)
(47)
476
500
2013
11,885
10,562
1,322
261
1,583
(367)
1,216
(40)
(159)
1,017
(392)
(54)
570
668
2014F
13,244
11,738
1,506
318
1,823
(421)
1,403
(75)
(151)
1,177
(437)
(123)
617
711
2015F
16,504
14,561
1,944
397
2,341
(525)
1,816
(131)
(138)
1,547
(544)
(160)
843
932
2016F
19,486
17,194
2,292
481
2,773
(619)
2,154
(157)
(145)
1,853
(651)
(198)
1,004
1,098
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Balance sheet, Rp bn
Cash & equivalent
Trade receivables
Project receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
LT investments
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total Non-current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2012
1,532
1,348
2,025
1,143
1,202
7,251
1,783
1,184
803
3,770
11,021
2013
1,387
1,479
2,564
1,118
1,446
7,994
2,236
1,640
724
4,601
12,595
2014F
1,970
2,023
2,870
1,239
1,599
9,701
2,587
2,390
597
5,574
15,275
2015F
1,440
2,522
3,576
1,537
1,953
11,027
3,227
3,182
480
6,889
17,916
2016F
1,327
2,977
4,222
1,815
2,282
12,623
3,868
3,961
365
8,194
20,817
ST loans
Trade payables
Current portion of LT loans
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
LT loans
Other liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Minority interest
Capital stock
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total Equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
235
2,557
87
3,702
6,580
934
672
1,606
240
1,367
1,204
24
2,834
11,021
278
3,089
124
3,808
7,298
1,271
799
2,070
278
1,317
1,202
429
3,227
12,595
1,000
3,424
544
3,607
8,575
595
1,071
1,666
601
1,320
1,705
1,409
5,035
15,276
1,500
4,247
41
4,474
10,262
424
1,315
1,739
761
1,320
2,424
1,409
5,915
17,916
1,750
5,015
39
5,283
12,088
236
1,545
1,781
959
1,320
3,260
1,409
6,948
20,817
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2
6 January 2015
Wijaya Karya
Exhibit 3. Cash flow, Rp bn
2012
833
(47)
(343)
93
354
(53)
836
(521)
(970)
(1,491)
104
11
680
254
(117)
932
277
2013
1,017
(54)
(630)
140
33
127
632
(597)
(420)
(1,017)
44
37
337
(40)
(137)
240
(145)
2014F
1,177
(123)
(458)
198
(948)
272
117
(948)
(244)
(1,192)
722
421
(676)
1,305
(114)
1,658
583
2015F
1,547
(160)
(618)
286
(74)
245
1,226
(1,078)
(541)
(1,619)
500
(504)
(171)
160
(123)
(138)
(530)
2016F
1,853
(198)
(717)
384
(44)
230
1,508
(1,164)
(547)
(1,711)
250
(1)
(188)
198
(169)
90
(113)
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
9.7
11.7
8.8
9.7
4.8
5.0
18.8
4.9
11.1
13.3
10.2
11.4
4.8
5.6
18.8
4.8
11.4
13.8
10.6
12.1
4.7
5.4
14.9
4.4
11.8
14.2
11.0
12.7
5.1
5.6
15.4
5.1
11.8
14.2
11.1
13.0
5.2
5.6
15.6
5.2
44.3
net cash
24.0
51.8
8.9
19.0
42.5
3.4
12.5
33.2
8.9
11.5
29.2
10.1
12.1
Turnover, days
Trade receivables
Inventories
Trade payables
49
46
103
45
38
105
55
38
105
55
38
105
55
38
105
Growth, %
Revenue
Operating profit
EBITDA
Net profit
Core profit
27.9
33.1
33.3
34.3
31.1
20.0
39.8
40.8
19.7
33.7
11.4
15.3
18.0
8.2
6.5
24.6
29.5
31.4
36.7
31.0
18.1
18.6
20.7
19.1
17.8
Pretax profit
Minority interest
Tax
Depreciation
Changes in W/C
Others
Cash Flow from Operation
Capex
Investments
Cash Flow from Investing
ST loans
Current portion of LT loans
LT loans
Equity
Dividend & CSR
Cash Flow from Financing
Change in Cash
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 4. Key ratios
Profitability, %
Gross margin - excl. JO
Gross margin - incl. JO
Operating margin
EBITDA margin
Net margin
Core margin
ROAE
ROAA
Leverage
Debt to equity, %
Net debt to equity, %
Interest coverage, x
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
3
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE
Pembangunan Perumahan
BUY
Target Price, Rp
4,100
Upside
15.8%
PTPP IJ/PTPP.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (mn)
3,540
4,842
Market Cap, Rp bn
17,142
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
1,359
3.1
PTPP relative to JCI Index
PTPP (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
01/01/14
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Market Recommendation
BUY
SELL
2
1
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
Our
4,100
157
22.5
Cons
3,231
142
24.9
PTPP maintained its status as the biggest new contracts achiever for the third
consecutive year. Its order book is estimated to reach Rp40tn in FY14F – at par with
WIKA’s as the biggest state-owned contractor in Indonesia. Going forward, we believe
PTPP can benefit from its expertise in maritime construction in view of Jokowi’s vision
on infrastructure development. Encouraged by this progress, PTPP remains one of our
Top Picks in the sector. Consequently, we raise our Target Price to Rp4,100, derived
from 25.9x FY15F PE, implying PEG of 0.9x. BUY.
The best new contracts achiever for the third consecutive year
In 11M14, PTPP was awarded Rp16tn of new contracts, surpassing the other stateowned contractors despite the lack of government projects throughout the year. Hence,
by year-end, we see that PTPP’s new contracts may accelerate to Rp18-20tn at best,
looking at its historical performance. This will bring PTPP’s order book up to Rp40tn in
FY14F – at par with WIKA’s estimated order book. Going forward, we believe the
company is on the right track to get more contracts, especially from the government’s
accelerated projects, considering its expertise in maritime-based projects, as reflected in
the Rp8.2tn signature New Priok Port project which is on-track. As such, we expect PTPP
to win Rp24tn of new contracts in FY15F, yet still below the management’s guidance.
Sound earnings growth expected in 2015
PTPP’s carry-over projects to 2015 are estimated to be around Rp25-27tn, or 1.8-2.0x its
FY14F revenues. Looking at those figures, the management has expressed its optimism
with targeted net profits of Rp730bn in FY15F, or growth of 32% CAGR in FY13-15F. In
our view, the management’s target is reasonable considering the company’s strong
earnings visibility. Also worth noting are the company’s strong marketing sales from its
high margins property projects that will materialized in FY15F.
15
HOLD
Overtaking the biggest contractor
% Diff
26.9
10.6
-9.6
PP Properti’s IPO in 1Q15F
PTPP’s property arm, PP Properti is estimated to go public in March 2015 at the latest.
PTPP plans to raise Rp1.5tn in equity from divestment of a 35% stake in PP Properti. For
2015, PTPP has earmarked around Rp800-900bn in capex to develop its property
projects. Through this equity raising, PTPP’s gearing would fall from 2.0x to 1.0x during
the peak cycle, giving the company more room to get projects during the infrastructure
up-cycle, we believe.
The valuation is justified
Among its peers, PTPP continues to stand out thanks to its huge order book which gives
the best earnings visibility. PP Properti’s plans to go public have been well received since
they allow PTPP to leverage its equity to undertake more government projects in the
future. All in all, we believe PTPP’s valuation is justified to +1.5sd above the sector mean
during the up-cycle period. Utilizing targeted FY15F PE of 25.9x, we raise our Target
Price to Rp4,100.
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Revenues, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
2013
8,004
860
29.6
310
358
74
28.8
29.7
55.4
47.9
10.4
20.5
0.5
11,656
1,188
38.2
421
486
100
35.6
(5.5)
40.7
35.3
8.6
14.3
0.5
2014F
14,138
1,608
35.3
592
656
135
35.1
24.4
29.0
26.1
6.9
11.0
0.7
2015F
17,037
1,769
10.0
762
831
172
26.6
17.1
22.5
20.6
5.5
10.0
0.9
2016F
20,626
2,100
18.7
936
1,009
208
21.5
10.1
18.3
17.0
4.4
8.4
1.1
6 January 2015
Pembangunan Perumahan
Exhibit 1. Profit and loss, Rp bn
2012
8,004
7,149
855
142
996
144
853
(222)
(85)
545
(236)
(0)
310
358
2013
11,656
10,383
1,273
94
1,367
200
1,168
(283)
(118)
767
(346)
(0)
421
486
2014F
14,138
12,505
1,633
74
1,706
281
1,425
(299)
(110)
1,016
(424)
(0)
592
656
2015F
17,037
15,079
1,957
85
2,043
340
1,703
(315)
(115)
1,273
(511)
(0)
762
831
2016F
20,626
18,310
2,316
97
2,413
399
2,014
(339)
(121)
1,555
(619)
(0)
936
1,009
Cash & equivalent
Trade receivables
Project receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
LT investments
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total Non-current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2012
1,303
1,339
2,957
1,566
1,023
8,189
282
73
7
362
8,551
2013
2,397
1,710
4,679
1,777
1,339
11,902
349
142
24
514
12,416
2014F
1,613
2,491
5,209
2,243
1,709
13,264
443
433
24
900
14,164
2015F
1,695
3,001
6,277
2,705
2,023
15,701
512
500
24
1,035
16,736
2016F
1,933
3,634
7,599
3,284
2,412
18,862
567
576
24
1,167
20,029
ST loans
Trade payables
Current portion of LT loans
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
LT loans
Other liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Minority interest
Capital stock
Retained earnings
Total Equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
1,116
4,244
150
523
6,032
530
333
863
(0)
946
709
1,656
8,551
945
6,300
530
1,001
8,776
813
842
1,655
1
947
1,037
1,985
12,416
1,000
7,592
190
1,022
9,815
1,030
775
1,856
1
947
1,545
2,492
14,164
1,200
9,155
1,228
11,594
1,030
925
2,006
1
947
2,188
3,136
16,736
1,300
11,117
330
1,487
14,245
700
1,113
1,865
1
947
2,972
3,920
20,029
Revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Income from JO
Gross profit incl. JO
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Net interest
Other income (expenses)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Minority interest
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Balance sheet, Rp bn
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2
6 January 2015
Pembangunan Perumahan
Exhibit 3. Cash flow, Rp bn
Pretax profit
Minority interest
Tax
Depreciation
Changes in W/C
Change in other assets
Cash Flow from Operation
Capex
Investments
Cash Flow from Investing
ST loans
Current portion of LT loans
LT loans
Equity
Dividend & CSR
Cash Flow from Financing
Change in Cash
2012
545
(0)
(407)
4
(399)
111
(146)
(1)
(179)
(180)
204
(181)
380
(0)
(79)
323
(3)
2013
767
(0)
(489)
7
(256)
843
872
(76)
(102)
(178)
(171)
380
283
1
(93)
400
1,094
2014F
1,016
(0)
(467)
163
(761)
(70)
(120)
(454)
(59)
(513)
55
(340)
217
(84)
(152)
(784)
2015F
1,273
(0)
(594)
33
(602)
250
359
(100)
(68)
(168)
200
(190)
(118)
(108)
83
2016F
1,555
(0)
(721)
38
(726)
314
460
(115)
(55)
(170)
100
330
(330)
(152)
(52)
238
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
10.7
12.4
10.7
10.7
3.9
4.5
20.1
4.0
10.9
11.7
10.0
10.2
3.6
4.2
23.1
4.0
11.5
12.1
10.1
11.4
4.2
4.6
26.4
4.5
11.5
12.0
10.0
10.4
4.5
4.9
27.1
4.9
11.2
11.7
9.8
10.2
4.5
4.9
26.5
5.1
108.4
29.7
3.5
115.2
Net cash
4.0
89.1
24.4
4.4
71.1
17.1
5.0
59.4
10.1
5.4
60
79
214
53
62
218
63
65
219
63
65
219
63
65
219
28.4
30.2
29.6
28.9
28.8
45.6
37.0
38.2
35.9
35.6
21.3
22.0
35.3
40.7
35.1
20.5
19.5
10.0
28.7
26.6
21.1
18.3
18.7
22.9
21.5
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 4. Key ratios
Profitability, %
Gross margin - excl. JO
Gross margin - incl. JO
Operating margin
EBITDA margin
Net margin
Core margin
ROAE
ROAA
Leverage
Debt to equity, %
Net debt to equity, %
Interest coverage, x
Turnover, days
Trade receivables
Inventories
Trade payables
Growth, %
Revenue
Operating profit
EBITDA
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
3
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE
Waskita Karya
BUY
Target Price, Rp
1,650
Upside
17.4%
WSKT IJ/WSKT.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (mn)
1,405
9,632
Market Cap, Rp bn
13,533
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
1,073
4.2
WSKT relative to JCI Index
WSKT (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
250
200
150
100
50
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
01/01/14
0
Market Recommendation
10
HOLD
SELL
3
2
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
Our
1,650
64
21.9
Cons
1,115
54
25.9
In 2014, WSKT’s new contracts surpassed expectations thanks to the contribution
from some of its owned toll road projects. The rationale of venturing into the toll road
business is to boost its order book and improve its profitability going forward. We do
see an exit risk for WSKT, however, as maintaining ownership in toll roads after their
completion will limit the company’s balance sheet capacity, but overall, we are
positive on WSKT’s toll road ventures. With a brighter outlook for government
projects in 2015, we believe WSKT will have a robust order book to maintain its
growth story. Utilizing the sector’s up-cycle target PE FY15F of 25.9x, we raise our
Target Price to Rp1,650, implying 0.5x PEG. Maintain BUY.
%
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
BUY
A high risk-rewards contractor
% Diff
47.9
18.5
-15.4
High risk-rewards in the toll road business
In our view, WSKT’s ventures into toll roads are a high risk-reward business. At the
current juncture, WSKT still holds the majority of the shares in its toll road subsidiary, PT
Waskita Toll Road (WTR), meaning that WSKT cannot book the projects under WTR in its
order book. With plans to sell its shares to a third-party with a buy back option in the
near-term, WSKT should be able to book the profits during the construction progress. In
that case, we recognize its toll road projects as normal projects. With four toll roads in
the pipeline, WSKT could bag a high-margin order book between Rp4.0-6.0tn until 2017.
However, risks are embedded in the execution of the option by the third party. If the
option is not executed, WSKT’s balance sheet and profitability might be weighed down
by the heavy cycle in toll roads during the first five years. Hence, at this point, we still
believe WSKT will hold a minority of the shares in WTR, thereby elevating the company’s
order book as well as its profitability until at least FY16F.
Potential equity raising in 2015
With government ownership in the company still standing at 65%, WSKT still has the
chance to undertake a rights issue with the government making a placement in order to
leverage its equity. At the current share price, a 15% placement by the government
could increase WSKT’s equity by Rp2tn, elevating the total equity to Rp5tn at YE15F –
creating the company as the biggest contractor in Indonesia in terms of its equity size. In
that scenario, WSKT’s gearing could fall to only 0.4-0.5x during the peak cycle, giving the
company ample room to get sizeable projects in the future. As such, we believe a rights
issue would be a positive catalyst for WSKT.
Revising up our estimates
WSKT’s better-than-expected new contracts achievement in 2014 has led us to revise up
our estimates. We continue to value WSKT based on its core business in construction
services as we expect the company to liquidate its ownership in the toll road
investments once they are completed. Utilizing the target PE during the sector up-cycle,
we set WSKT’s TP at Rp1,650.
2012
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Revenues, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
8,808
574
21.7
254
222
23
32.5
Net cash
53.3
60.9
6.7
23.1
-
2013
9,687
725
26.3
368
363
38
63.2
21.1
36.8
37.3
5.7
19.4
0.2
2014F
10,523
856
18.0
420
399
41
10.0
27.5
32.3
33.9
4.9
16.7
0.5
2015F
13,707
1,280
49.6
618
617
64
54.8
40.0
21.9
21.9
4.1
11.6
0.6
2016F
16,946
1,502
17.4
725
724
75
17.3
44.2
18.7
18.7
3.5
10.2
0.9
6 January 2015
Waskita Karya
Exhibit 1. Profit and loss, Rp bn
2012
8,808
8,076
732
93
825
(285)
540
(138)
57
460
(206)
254
222
2013
9,687
8,776
911
102
1,012
(340)
672
(70)
9
611
(243)
368
363
2014F
10,523
9,470
1,053
155
1,207
(441)
766
(117)
34
683
(263)
420
399
2015F
13,707
12,197
1,510
165
1,675
(507)
1,168
(208)
1
961
(343)
618
617
2016F
16,946
15,154
1,792
189
1,981
(613)
1,368
(220)
1
1,148
(424)
725
724
Cash & equivalent
Trade receivables
Project receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
LT investments
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total Non-current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2012
2,184
1,464
3,267
413
462
7,790
318
240
19
577
8,366
2013
1,120
1,710
3,944
292
715
7,781
570
415
21
1,007
8,788
2014F
994
1,802
4,131
526
960
8,413
514
776
260
1,550
9,964
2015F
964
2,347
5,381
678
1,190
10,561
666
1,064
260
1,990
12,551
2016F
760
2,902
6,653
842
1,425
12,582
830
1,338
260
2,428
15,010
ST loans
Trade payables
Current portion of LT loans
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
LT loans
Other liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Capital stock
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total Equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
1,172
2,003
2,117
5,292
747
320
1,067
1,794
215
(2)
2,007
8,366
875
2,291
2,261
5,427
748
230
978
1,794
563
26
2,383
8,788
500
2,451
75
2,479
5,505
1,174
540
1,714
1,816
909
20
2,745
9,964
600
3,157
3,191
6,948
1,674
650
2,325
1,816
1,443
20
3,279
12,551
800
3,922
1,175
3,963
9,860
500
770
1,270
1,816
2,044
20
3,880
15,010
Revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Income from JO
Gross profit incl. JO
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Net interest
Other income (expenses)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Balance sheet, Rp bn
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2
6 January 2015
Waskita Karya
Exhibit 3. Cash flow, Rp bn
Pretax profit
Tax
Depreciation
Changes in W/C
Cash Flow from Operation
Capex
Investments
Cash Flow from Investing
ST loans
Current portion of LT loans
LT loans
Equity
Dividend
Cash Flow from Financing
Change in Cash
2012
460
(159)
34
(495)
(160)
(81)
(5)
(86)
(33)
747
1,140
1,854
1,607
2013
611
(462)
53
(497)
(295)
(228)
(253)
(481)
(297)
1
29
(20)
(288)
(1,064)
2014F
683
(304)
89
134
601
(450)
(345)
(795)
(375)
75
426
15
(74)
68
(126)
2015F
961
(478)
112
(514)
81
(400)
(152)
(552)
100
(75)
500
(84)
442
(30)
2016F
1,148
(559)
134
(432)
291
(409)
(164)
(572)
200
1,175
(1,174)
(124)
77
(204)
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
8.3
9.4
6.1
6.5
2.9
2.5
19.3
3.8
9.4
10.5
6.9
7.5
3.8
3.7
16.8
4.3
10.0
11.5
7.3
8.1
4.0
3.8
16.4
4.5
11.0
12.2
8.5
9.3
4.5
4.5
20.5
5.5
10.6
11.7
8.1
8.9
4.3
4.3
20.2
5.3
95.6
Net cash
3.2
68.1
21.1
6.9
63.7
27.5
4.8
69.4
40.0
4.9
63.8
44.2
5.4
60
18
89
64
12
94
62
20
93
62
20
93
62
20
93
21.1
20.3
21.7
47.7
32.5
10.0
24.5
26.3
44.9
63.2
8.6
14.0
18.0
14.0
10.0
30.3
52.4
49.6
47.3
54.8
23.6
17.1
17.4
17.2
17.3
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 4. Key ratios
Profitability, %
Gross margin - excl. JO
Gross margin - incl. JO
Operating margin
EBITDA margin
Net margin
Core margin
ROAE
ROAA
Leverage
Debt to equity, %
Net debt to equity, %
Interest coverage, x
Turnover, days
Trade receivables
Inventories
Trade payables
Growth, %
Revenues
Operating profit
EBITDA
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
3
Tuesday, 6 January 2015
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE
Adhi Karya
BUY
Target Price, Rp
3,900
Upside
14.0%
ADHI IJ/ADHI.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (mn)
3,420
1,801
Market Cap, Rp bn
6,161
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
489
3.4
ADHI relative to JCI Index
ADHI (LHS)
Rp
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
100
80
60
40
20
0
01/01/15
12/01/14
11/01/14
10/01/14
09/01/14
08/01/14
07/01/14
06/01/14
05/01/14
04/01/14
03/01/14
02/01/14
01/01/14
-20
Market Recommendation
HOLD
11
2
SELL
4
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
Our
3,900
232
14.7
Cons
3,194
200
17.1
ADHI underperformed its state-owned peers in 2014. Low order books, which led to
weaker earnings visibility, were the main reason behind the lagging share price
performance. However, 2015 should be a better year for ADHI with the government’s
plans to increase the Public Works Ministry’s budget from 81tn to Rp132tn. This will
be the main catalyst to fuel ADHI’s order book and growth in 2015. Given the stock’s
undemanding valuation, we believe ADHI represents a good opportunity for bottomfishing in our construction stock universe. All in all, we reiterate our BUY call on ADHI
with a TP of Rp3,900, derived from target FY15F PE of 16.8x – at par with the sector
mean during the up-cycle period.
%
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
BUY
Betting on the government
% Diff
22.1
16.0
-14.0
Ready to take off in 2015
2014 was a tough year for ADHI given the company’s shortfall in carry-over projects
from 2013 along with the weak new contracts progress following the government’s
budget cuts and the company’s losses in the EPC business. However, some positive
developments have been seen – especially in December 2014, when the company won
some noteworthy projects, thus raising its new contracts progress to Rp7.5tn in midDecember 2014 (vs. Rp4.9tn in 9M14). Learning from the past, it can be seen that ADHI
has a high dependency on government projects as the biggest portion of its construction
revenues are derived from the Public Works Ministry. Hence, with the Public Works
Ministry’s budget expected to increase 63% to Rp132tn in the 2015 revised state
budget, this will be the main catalyst to fuel ADHI’s order book we believe. As such, we
set our base new contracts in FY15F at Rp14.4tn (vs. Rp8.3tn in FY14F) with the FY15F
earnings projected to grow by 56% to Rp419bn after the low-base seen in FY14F.
The balance sheet is ready to be leveraged
ADHI’s working capital was quite soft during the peak quarters in 2013/14 given the flat
order book. With Rp1.7tn of equity estimated at YE14F, we believe ADHI still has some
room to take on more projects given that its gearing stood at 1.8x in September 2014.
Moreover, our Rp21tn order book estimate in FY15F is the same size as seen in FY11-13.
During the peak cycle in 2011-2013, ADHI’s gearing reached 1.5x. Thus, the balance
sheet shouldn’t be an issue as infrastructure momentum gathers pace. Encouragingly
for ADHI, the potential governments’ rights issue execution plan should be the game
changer for the company going forward considering the government’s ownership in
ADHI is already limited at 51%.
Cheapest valuation
ADHI’s share price has underperformed relative to its state-owned peers since its alltime high in May 2013. The bleak outlook in 2014 was the main culprit and ADHI has
been well-punished by the market. Yet given that ADHI will likely benefit from the
government’s infrastructure drive, we believe that the stock represents a good
opportunity for bottom-fishing in our construction stock universe. ADHI currently trades
at a 30% discount to its peers’ average.
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Revenues, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
2013
2014F
7,628
799
42.2
212
357
198
35.6
Net cash
29.1
17.3
5.2
7.7
0.9
9,800
934
16.8
406
480
266
34.4
Net cash
15.2
12.8
4.0
6.3
0.7
9,589
662
(29.1)
268
271
150
(43.5)
86.1
23.0
22.7
3.6
11.5
2.0
2015F
11,947
1,025
54.8
419
462
257
70.5
92.7
14.7
13.3
3.0
7.9
1.3
2016F
14,083
1,248
21.7
530
581
322
25.7
89.2
11.6
10.6
2.5
6.7
2.0
6 January 2015
Adhi Karya
Exhibit 1. Profit and loss, Rp bn
2012
7,628
6,672
956
87
1,043
(251)
792
(81)
(288)
423
(210)
(2)
212
357
2013
9,800
8,606
1,193
55
1,248
(329)
919
(75)
(129)
714
(306)
(2)
406
480
2014F
9,589
8,595
994
24
1,019
(376)
643
(79)
(6)
558
(288)
(2)
268
271
2015F
11,947
10,532
1,414
31
1,445
(445)
1,000
(139)
(80)
780
(358)
(3)
419
462
2016F
14,083
12,381
1,703
36
1,739
(525)
1,214
(167)
(90)
957
(422)
(4)
530
581
Cash & equivalent
Trade receivables
Project receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
LT investments
Fixed assets
Other assets
Total Non-current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2012
949
1,343
3,600
117
1,274
7,283
361
187
40
589
7,872
2013
1,940
1,503
3,655
162
1,840
9,099
279
271
72
621
9,721
2014F
1,036
1,869
3,561
205
2,539
9,211
380
346
313
1,039
10,250
2015F
858
2,328
4,437
252
3,180
11,055
371
446
313
1,130
12,185
2016F
816
2,745
5,230
296
3,809
12,896
362
555
313
1,229
14,125
ST loans
Trade payables
Current portion of LT loans
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
LT loans
Other liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Minority interest
Capital stock
Retained earnings
Other equity
Total Equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
201
4,277
1,375
5,853
748
91
839
7
230
944
0
1,181
7,872
212
4,767
1,562
6,542
1,497
134
1,631
9
230
1,307
2
1,548
9,721
1,000
4,428
1,556
6,984
1,497
71
1,568
11
230
1,454
2
1,697
10,250
1,250
5,426
1,901
8,577
1,498
71
1,569
15
230
1,792
2
2,038
12,185
1,500
6,378
500
2,229
10,608
999
71
1,070
19
230
2,197
2
2,447
14,125
Revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Income from JO
Gross profit incl. JO
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Net interest expenses
Other income (expenses)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Minority interest
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Balance sheet, Rp bn
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2
6 January 2015
Adhi Karya
Exhibit 3. Cash flow, Rp bn
Pretax profit
Minority interest
Tax
Depreciation
Changes in W/C
Change in other assets
Cash Flow from Operation
Capex
Investments
Cash Flow from Investing
ST loans
Current portion of LT loans
LT loans
Equity
Dividend & CSR
Cash Flow from Financing
Change in Cash
2012
423
(2)
(166)
7
290
(13)
540
26
(405)
(379)
36
(500)
720
38
(59)
236
397
2013
714
(2)
(422)
15
269
202
777
(99)
(408)
(507)
11
749
4
(42)
722
991
2014F
558
(2)
(461)
20
(608)
(545)
(1,039)
(94)
(439)
(533)
788
0
2
(122)
669
(904)
2015F
780
(3)
(466)
25
(334)
83
85
(126)
(311)
(437)
250
1
3
(80)
174
(178)
2016F
957
(4)
(517)
34
(255)
86
301
(143)
(329)
(472)
250
500
(499)
4
(126)
129
(42)
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
12.5
13.7
10.4
10.5
2.8
4.7
19.5
3.0
12.2
12.7
9.4
9.5
4.1
4.9
29.7
4.6
10.4
10.6
6.7
6.9
2.8
2.8
16.5
2.7
11.8
12.1
8.4
8.6
3.5
3.9
22.4
3.7
12.1
12.3
8.6
8.9
3.8
4.1
23.6
4.0
80.3
Net cash
9.2
110.4
Net cash
8.5
147.2
86.1
4.8
134.8
92.7
6.0
122.5
89.2
6.4
63
6
231
55
7
199
70
9
185
70
9
185
70
9
185
13.9
42.5
42.2
16.2
35.6
28.5
15.9
16.8
91.9
34.4
(2.1)
(30.0)
(29.1)
(33.9)
(43.5)
24.6
55.6
54.8
56.1
70.5
17.9
21.4
21.7
26.6
25.7
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 4. Key ratios
Profitability, %
Gross margin - excl. JO
Gross margin - incl. JO
Operating margin
EBITDA margin
Net margin
Core margin
ROAE
ROAA
Leverage
Debt to equity, %
Net debt to equity, %
Interest coverage, x
Turnover, days
Trade receivables
Inventories
Trade payables
Growth, %
Revenue
Operating profit
EBITDA
Net profit
Core profit
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
3
LCGC: Agya and Ayla Selling Price to be Raised Again (BI)
The two largest LCGC player, Toyota Agya and Daihatsu Ayla, plan to raise its selling price early on this year. This is
to compensate higher production cost as the result from inflation on fuel price hike and a weaker rupiah. The
selling price of these two products has been raised around 3% in October 2014. Toyota mentioned that the selling
price would be raised around IDR3 mn/unit. While Daihatsu, plans to raise its selling price by IDR2.2-4.2 mn/unit.
Multistrada Delays Project in Egypt and Kazakhstan (BI)
Manufacturers of tires, MASA, delay again its expansion plans of tire plant in Egypt and Kazakhstan. Company
stalling development plans due to weak tire demand. Throughout 2014, MASA tire sales slump 10% from 2013’s
tire sales. In addition, the company is also burdened with lower selling prices in-line with the decline on
commodity prices.
Semen Indonesia Increase Capex to Rp7 T (ID)
SMGR will increase capital expenditure this year to Rp7 trillion, from the initial plans of Rp5 trillion. This year will
be the investment peak for the construction of plants in Rembang and Indarung, both plants will absorb the total
funds amounted Rp4-5 trillion. This year’s capex is significantly increased from total capex of Rp2.5-3 trillion in
2014. The capex funding for this year will rely on internal cash, in addition, the company also still has not disbursed
its loan facilities.
United Tractors Bought Rp650 Billion Acset Shares (ID)
UNTR officially take over as many as 200 million (40%) ACST shares, with the transaction value reached Rp650
billion. On Monday (5/1) occurred crossing ACST shares at a price of Rp3,250 per share, this price is 11% discount
compared to last week's closing at Rp3,650 per share. Furthermore, UNTR will make a tender offer for the changes
in ACST’s controlling shareholder. Through the tender offer, UNTR plans to increase its ownership to minimum
50.1%.
State-owned Contractors Pursue Targets (BI)
WSKT will be the only state-owned contractors that successfully achieve its new contracts target in 2014. By the
end of December, WSKT new contracts have reached Rp22.3tn, exceeding the initial target of Rp18.7tn. Thus, the
company projects its FY14F revenues to reach Rp10.4tn with net profit of Rp501bn. On the other hand, WIKA and
PTPP new contracts only reached Rp17.3tn and Rp20.2tn, respectively, as some contracts are still being finalized.
In the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited
Equity
Valuation
Danareksa Universe
Auto
Astra International
Gajah Tunggal
Multistrada
Selamat Sempurna
Banks
BCA
BNI
BRI
Bank Tabungan Negara
Bank Mandiri
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan
Cement
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Indonesia
Construction
Jasa Marga
Wijaya Karya
Pembangunan Perumahan
Adhi Karya
Waskita Karya
Wika Beton
Consumer
Indofood CBP
Indofood
Kalbe Farma
Kimia Farma
Unilever
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Mandom
Heavy Equipment
Hexindo Adiperkasa
United Tractors
Mining
Adaro Energy
Timah
Vale Indonesia
Aneka Tambang
Bukit Asam
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Harum Energy
Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari
Sampoerna Agro
BW Plantation
PP London Sumatra
Salim Ivomas Pratama
Property
Alam Sutera
Bumi Serpong Damai
Metropolitan Land
Surya Semesta Internusa
Lippo Karawaci
Telco & Infrastructure
XL Axiata
Indosat
Telkom
Sarana Menara Nusantara
Tower Bersama
MNC Sky Vision
Tranportation
Blue Bird
Utility
PGN
Retail
Mitra Adi Perkasa
Ramayana
Ace Hardware
Rating
Price (Rp)
Price
Mkt Cap
Target
Rp Bn
3,114,240
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
7,225
1,375
415
4,880
8,050
2,100
390
5,300
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
13,200
6,025
11,600
1,220
10,800
4,000
12,100
6,750
13,150
1,400
12,400
5,450
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
2,180
24,775
16,225
2,680
23,600
17,500
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
7,000
3,575
3,540
3,420
1,405
1,240
7,600
3,250
3,400
3,850
1,150
1,200
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
13,150
7,475
1,810
1,430
32,475
1,350
17,525
13,050
7,050
1,900
1,550
26,000
1,400
13,600
HOLD
BUY
3,510
16,875
3,175
23,300
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
1,025
1,185
3,540
1,040
12,350
15,500
1,730
1,280
1,575
4,700
1,000
16,000
21,500
2,400
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
24,675
2,080
395
1,930
710
24,700
2,200
1,380
2,130
970
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
570
1,925
455
1,115
1,025
700
1,960
620
870
1,180
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
HOLD
4,820
4,200
2,835
4,010
9,400
1,600
5,450
3,820
3,250
4,525
6,600
1,720
BUY
9,650
10,200
BUY
5,900
6,000
BUY
HOLD
BUY
4,935
795
785
6,250
1,140
1,040
308,122
292,494
4,792
3,811
7,026
1,012,220
325,446
112,358
286,162
12,893
252,000
23,361
204,147
16,705
91,203
96,239
117,361
47,600
21,983
17,142
6,161
13,667
10,807
493,238
76,677
65,634
84,844
7,942
247,784
6,833
3,524
65,894
2,948
62,946
137,353
32,786
8,826
35,175
9,920
28,456
17,514
4,677
79,638
38,857
3,931
12,452
13,168
11,230
78,916
11,200
35,366
3,449
5,246
23,655
447,030
41,136
22,823
285,768
40,914
45,087
11,302
24,145
24,145
143,025
143,025
27,296
8,192
5,641
13,463
Net profit, Rp bn
2013
158,107
19,901
19,417
120
43
321
66,427
14,254
9,058
21,218
1,562
18,204
2,131
11,334
952
5,012
5,370
3,344
1,336
570
421
406
368
243
12,554
2,225
2,504
1,920
215
5,353
178
160
5,116
282
4,834
8,390
2,370
515
396
410
1,826
2,362
510
3,210
1,834
119
182
688
388
5,504
877
2,432
241
726
1,228
13,385
1,033
(2,782)
14,205
169
1,248
(487)
708
708
7,713
7,713
1,227
328
391
509
2014
180,948
23,090
21,600
1,037
86
368
72,715
16,656
9,942
23,750
1,075
19,463
1,830
11,294
1,274
4,839
5,180
3,765
1,580
639
559
268
418
300
14,373
2,949
3,191
2,104
239
5,442
268
180
5,880
348
5,532
10,977
2,808
625
1,527
1,063
2,154
2,175
624
5,089
2,527
251
372
946
994
6,654
1,204
1,896
256
776
2,522
16,544
(624)
(602)
14,805
1,260
1,596
108
774
774
9,219
9,219
1,349
332
434
583
EPS (Rp)
2015
2013
2014
EPS Growth
2015
203,253
230.8
264.1
296.7
28,392
26,760
1,053
161
419
80,841
18,520
10,981
26,786
1,199
21,218
2,137
11,336
1,465
5,215
4,657
4,682
1,742
846
759
419
521
396
16,371
3,671
3,368
2,481
313
5,972
350
216
6,305
381
5,924
12,378
2,607
706
1,806
2,281
2,440
1,888
649
6,144
2,918
379
575
995
1,277
5,966
1,395
1,996
290
804
1,481
20,665
329
312
16,211
1,702
1,926
184
1,106
1,106
8,573
8,573
1,599
442
457
700
364.6
480
35
5
223
616.7
579
486
860
149
780
365
656
124
1,362
905
88
197
93
87
225
38
28
157
382
285
41
39
702
35
796
1,119
335
1,296
129
74
102
40
43
840
2,091
159
56
1,165
63
42
101
25
75
45
139
32
154
57
98
121
(512)
147
17
260
(69)
283
283
318
318
47
197
55
30
423.0
534
297
10
256
675.1
668
533
963
103
834
313
654
166
1,315
873
99
232
104
116
149
43
34
180
506
363
45
43
713
53
893
1,287
414
1,483
169
88
124
154
111
991
1,925
137
88
1,604
133
83
139
63
91
61
108
34
165
117
121
(73)
(111)
152
124
333
15
309
309
380
380
52
200
61
34
520.1
661
302
18
291
750.5
742
589
1,086
114
909
366
656
191
1,417
785
123
256
138
157
232
54
45
205
630
384
53
56
783
69
1,075
1,380
453
1,588
190
82
140
182
239
1,122
1,671
150
107
1,853
201
128
146
81
81
71
114
38
171
68
151
39
57
161
167
402
26
442
442
354
354
62
266
64
41
PER (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
PBV (x)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
14%
12%
17.2
15.3
14.4
13.1
3.2
2.8
16%
11%
762%
97%
15%
9%
15%
10%
12%
-31%
7%
-14%
0%
34%
-3%
-4%
13%
18%
12%
33%
-34%
14%
24%
14%
33%
27%
10%
11%
2%
50%
12%
15%
24%
14%
31%
18%
21%
285%
159%
18%
-8%
-13%
59%
38%
111%
97%
37%
156%
21%
37%
-22%
6%
7%
105%
24%
-160%
-78%
3%
648%
28%
-122%
9%
9%
20%
20%
10%
1%
11%
15%
23%
24%
2%
71%
14%
11%
11%
11%
13%
11%
9%
17%
0%
15%
8%
-10%
24%
10%
32%
36%
56%
25%
32%
14%
25%
6%
18%
31%
10%
31%
20%
7%
9%
7%
13%
-7%
13%
18%
115%
13%
-13%
9%
21%
15%
51%
54%
5%
29%
-10%
16%
5%
14%
4%
-41%
25%
-153%
-152%
6%
35%
21%
71%
43%
43%
-7%
-7%
19%
33%
5%
20%
13.3
13.5
4.6
40.4
19.1
13.9
19.8
11.3
12.0
11.8
12.9
12.8
18.1
13.1
18.8
18.6
31.2
30.1
34.3
30.6
23.0
32.4
36.0
34.3
26.0
20.6
40.3
33.2
45.5
25.5
19.6
11.2
8.5
11.4
12.5
11.7
9.5
23.0
9.3
12.5
8.1
12.6
15.6
15.4
15.7
4.8
13.9
11.3
11.9
9.3
17.8
13.5
6.8
8.8
27.0
(65.9)
(37.9)
18.6
32.5
28.2
104.9
31.2
31.2
15.5
15.5
20.2
24.7
13.0
23.1
10.9
10.9
4.6
23.6
16.8
12.5
17.8
10.2
10.7
10.7
11.9
10.9
18.0
11.4
17.5
20.7
25.1
27.3
25.9
22.6
14.7
26.0
27.3
30.1
20.9
19.5
34.2
25.4
41.5
19.5
16.3
10.5
7.7
10.6
11.1
12.6
8.4
19.5
4.3
11.0
9.3
11.5
13.0
13.3
10.4
3.1
13.2
8.8
13.2
8.0
16.9
11.9
6.5
15.0
21.6
124.8
73.2
17.6
24.0
23.4
61.4
21.8
21.8
16.7
16.7
17.1
18.5
12.3
19.2
11.1
11.5
5.1
10.1
10.9
9.5
9.8
4.5
8.2
9.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
11.5
7.6
12.1
12.3
14.5
16.0
13.2
11.1
11.5
16.4
19.4
20.8
16.7
9.7
27.0
23.5
32.2
14.5
11.4
5.1
6.6
5.0
6.1
4.8
6.5
8.6
11.2
8.9
3.6
3.6
8.2
8.7
7.6
15.5
8.0
5.3
8.9
8.5
14.0
9.2
3.8
7.4
7.1
7.1
4.3
6.2
14.6
19.5
10.9
14.8
14.8
9.7
9.7
10.7
8.8
6.7
17.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
10.7
6.8
10.6
12.2
12.3
14.8
10.3
9.9
7.9
13.3
14.8
18.3
13.3
8.8
23.4
18.1
29.4
11.3
10.0
4.6
5.8
4.5
5.9
4.9
5.4
8.1
7.5
7.9
4.0
3.2
7.0
7.7
6.9
11.3
7.0
4.4
9.8
7.7
13.3
8.0
3.4
11.7
6.4
6.5
3.9
5.5
12.0
14.6
9.4
11.6
11.6
9.9
9.9
9.1
7.3
6.3
13.9
2.4
2.5
0.7
0.9
6.0
2.9
4.2
2.0
3.0
1.0
2.5
2.0
3.5
1.6
3.8
4.0
4.6
4.0
4.4
7.1
3.6
5.1
5.0
8.7
5.3
2.7
9.3
4.4
57.6
6.6
2.8
1.7
1.1
1.8
1.5
1.0
1.7
1.8
0.8
3.3
1.7
1.3
2.1
3.7
1.4
5.2
1.8
0.8
2.0
1.8
2.7
1.8
1.7
1.6
4.1
2.9
1.5
4.1
8.3
8.0
6.1
7.3
7.3
4.8
4.8
3.2
3.0
1.7
5.6
2.1
2.1
0.6
1.0
4.9
2.4
3.5
1.8
2.4
1.0
2.2
1.7
3.2
1.5
3.4
3.7
4.0
3.7
3.8
5.7
3.0
4.4
4.3
7.8
4.6
2.5
8.0
3.8
46.7
5.2
2.5
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.5
1.0
1.6
1.9
0.7
2.9
1.7
1.3
2.0
3.4
1.3
4.3
1.7
0.7
1.8
1.5
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.5
3.5
2.8
1.4
3.6
6.3
3.7
5.6
5.6
5.6
4.7
4.7
2.8
2.6
1.6
4.5
Net Gearing
ROE
2014
2014
19.7
42.8
55.9
45.7
10.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
31.7
net cash
22.1
93.5
1.8
28.2
86.1
7.3
net cash
net cash
31.8
net cash
net cash
26.8
43.1
28.2
18.7
net cash
47.3
net cash
2.1
40.8
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
52.1
106.4
net cash
35.3
69.6
net cash
25.0
net cash
18.6
129.7
145.4
net cash
151.0
206.0
135.5
54.9
net cash
98.5
net cash
net cash
19.3
19.9
16.6
2.0
33.7
22.2
23.5
19.4
27.0
9.0
20.7
16.9
20.3
12.9
21.1
22.8
16.2
13.9
15.5
25.4
16.5
16.5
20.9
26.6
21.7
13.5
24.4
13.9
127.2
29.1
14.7
15.8
13.2
16.0
12.3
9.3
12.4
7.8
8.4
26.9
21.5
18.3
14.2
25.0
9.2
16.9
13.8
7.1
18.3
21.1
15.4
14.0
28.9
18.1
15.8
-4.2
-3.8
22.8
29.5
32.8
6.0
34.2
34.2
31.4
31.4
16.8
12.9
13.1
27.2
The leaders on Danareksa coverage
Code
Price as on
5-Jan-15
2-Jan-15
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Rating
Selamat Sempurna
SMSM
4,880
4,725
3.3
6.0
2.7
2.7
BUY
Bumi Serpong Damai
BSDE
1,925
1,865
3.2
7.2
4.3
6.6
BUY
Metropolitan Land
MTLA
455
445
2.2
(2.2)
(4.0)
2.2
BUY
Blue Bird
BIRD
9,650
9,450
2.1
1.8
27.8
2.4
BUY
Indosat
ISAT
4,200
4,120
1.9
4.2
4.5
3.7
HOLD
PP London Sumatra
LSIP
1,930
1,905
1.3
1.8
(4.7)
2.1
BUY
Harum Energy
HRUM
1,730
1,715
0.9
2.4
0.6
4.2
HOLD
Ace Hardware
ACES
785
780
0.6
-
(0.6)
-
BUY
Astra Agro Lestari
AALI
24,675
24,575
0.4
6.0
1.1
1.8
BUY
Indofood
INDF
7,475
7,450
0.3
12.8
12.0
10.7
BUY
Price as on
5-Jan-15
2-Jan-15
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Sources: Bloomberg
The laggards on Danareksa coverage
Code
Rating
Adhi Karya
ADHI
3,420
3,575
(4.3)
10.0
12.7
(1.7)
BUY
Waskita Karya
WSKT
1,405
1,465
(4.1)
0.7
21.6
(4.4)
BUY
Wijaya Karya
WIKA
3,575
3,675
(2.7)
4.4
12.1
(2.9)
BUY
Indo Tambangraya Megah
ITMG
15,500
15,900
(2.5)
(0.5)
(13.9)
0.8
HOLD
United Tractors
UNTR
16,875
17,300
(2.5)
(2.2)
(4.5)
(2.7)
BUY
Astra International
ASII
7,225
7,400
(2.4)
(0.7)
1.8
(2.7)
BUY
Wika Beton
WTON
1,240
1,270
(2.4)
(3.5)
1.6
(4.6)
HOLD
Tower Bersama
TBIG
9,400
9,625
(2.3)
(2.3)
(1.1)
(3.1)
SELL
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
ROTI
1,350
1,375
(1.8)
(3.2)
(1.5)
(2.5)
BUY
Mitra Adi Perkasa
MAPI
4,935
5,025
(1.8)
(1.3)
(11.9)
(2.8)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
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