1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

January 7, 2015
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
WEEK ENDING 01/02/2015
Quick Take: Utilization rates continue to be strong around
94% this week (up 1.6% from same week Y/Y) which is
contributing to the larger than expected build in product
inventories. This coupled with lower crude imports are leading
to depleting crude inventories. From a regional standpoint, the
crude draw was primarily on the Gulf Coast (-4.0MMBbls). On
the demand front, gasoline is up 5.5% and distillate is up 7.2%
on a Y/Y trailing 4-week basis. Additionally, overall domestic
production increased by 11MBbl/d wk/wk.
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
25x
23x
21x
Jan
•
•
•
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 1.4% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 23.3 days (December ‘13 = 22.9 days, December 09-13
avg. = 23.2).
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 5.5% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 24.7 days (December ‘13 = 24.8 days, December 09 -13
avg. = 24.7).
29x
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 7.2% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate December demand cover
of 33.0 days (December ‘13 = 31.4 days, December 09-13
avg. = 37.2).
23x
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 2.6%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate December
demand cover of 56.7 days (December ‘13 = 54.1 days,
December 09-13 avg. = 55.5).
2014
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
27x
25x
21x
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
•
Nov
Sep
Nov
2013
2014
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2013
Nov
2014
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2013
Sep
Nov
2014
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities
business in the United States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Howard Weil | Scotia Capital (USA), Inc.  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
382,393
357,892
7%
342,848
12%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 237,163
226,959
4%
225,355
5%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
136,926
124,973
10%
145,417
-6%
15,162
121,764
19,174
105,799
-21%
15%
33,513
111,904
-55%
9%
6,856
7,961
-14%
8,692
-21%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
760
379
101%
585
30%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
265
114
132%
226
17%
16,420
16,134
14,970
10%
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
93.9%
92.3%
2%
2%
86.7%
8%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
11,956
11,141
7%
11,512
4%
62,390
59,425
5%
56,604
10%
19,231
17,589
9%
16,666
38,694
37,585
3%
53,373
-28%
8,038
30,656
10,540
27,045
-24%
13%
25,388
27,985
-68%
10%
109,324
52,674
111,160
52,115
-2%
1%
101,606
52,815
5,862
5,763
2%
6,162
33,307
29,875
11%
30,482
194,670
81,492
166,281
75,987
17%
7%
160,782
76,253
10,983
10,682
3%
11,731
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
44,752
39,898
12%
42,945
4%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
19,951
19,951
0%
17,018
17%
8,008
4,725
7,005
3,847
14%
6,952
3,768
15%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
46,492
32,600
49,359
32,427
-6%
51,930
32,730
-10%
1%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
15,448
13,768
12%
14,849
4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
8%
0%
9%
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
21%
7%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
23%
25%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
January 7, 2015
0%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
17,000
400,000
15,750
350,000
14,500
13,250
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
Jul
'13
Sep
'14
Nov
5-yr Avg
U.S. Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
U.S. Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
250,000
9,850
9,375
225,000
8,900
200,000
8,425
175,000
7,950
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
'13
'14
Sep
Jan
Nov
Mar
May
Jul
'13
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
4,450
180,000
160,000
4,000
140,000
3,550
120,000
3,100
100,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
'13
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
20,750
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
1,150,000
19,500
1,100,000
18,250
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
'13
January 7, 2015
Jul
'14
Sep
5-yr Avg
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
'13
Jul
'14
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
100
100.0
95
90.0
90
80.0
85
70.0
80
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'13
Jun Jul
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
'14
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
January 7, 2015
Aug Sep Oct
'14
Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
'10-'13 avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'14
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$3.70
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
QTD 14
$9.31
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
Series1
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$20.03
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
QTD 14
$19.93
'13
'14
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$9.47
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
'13
'14
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
QTD 14
$6.19
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
($5.00)
5-yr Range
January 7, 2015
'13
'14
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$12.97
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
QTD 14
$12.80
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$8.30
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
QTD 14
$11.21
'13
'14
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.43
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
QTD 14
$15.22
'13
'14
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
January 7, 2015
'13
'14
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
$11.59
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$24
$18
$12
QTD 14
$8.96
$6
$0
'13
$5.28
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
QTD 14
$3.86
Series5
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$12
$9
$6
$3
$0
($3)
'13
LLS - ANS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($4.08)
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
'14
Series5
LLS - ANS
$15
$10
$5
$0
QTD 14
$1.58
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
$3.61
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
QTD 14
$2.87
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$35
$28
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
'13
January 7, 2015
'14
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
($8.36)
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
QTD 14
($0.30)
$10
$5
$0
($5)
($10)
($15)
'13
QTD 14
$11.97
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.17
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'13
$3.85
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
QTD 14
$2.06
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'13
QTD 14
$23.60
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$9.00
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
'14
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'13
January 7, 2015
'14
'10-'12 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
375,000
276,832
255,363 253,001 264,996 261,776
284,079 281,649 272,484
250,000
125,000
0
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2009
1/2/15
2010
2011
2012
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2014
WTI
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
0
76,971
62,103
68,247
70,021
78,248
82,672
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
77,522
68,060
# of contracts
# of contracts
2013
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
100,000
75,000
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
500,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
50,000
25,000
(10,000)
(20,000)
(22,681) (21,931)
(30,000)
(27,910)
(28,973) (28,451)
(28,569) (28,613)
(32,731)
0
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
January 7, 2015
1/2/15
(40,000)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
20.0
$0.00
$ per barrel
($1.00)
($0.80)
($1.01)
($1.20)
1/2/15
($0.87)
($1.43)
($2.00)
($1.28)
($1.88)
($3.00)
cents per gallon
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
15.0
10.0
8.4
6.3
4.8
5.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
1.3
($3.12)
1.0
0.0
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14
($4.00)
12/5/14
12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.20
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.85
$0.90
0.0
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
(0.6)
(1.5)
(1.7)
(1.6)
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
$0.92
0.0
$0.79
$0.92
$0.85
$0.85
$0.85
$0.79
$0.60
$0.30
(3.0)
(3.0)
$0.00
11/14/14 11/21/14 11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
(4.5)
1/2/15
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
1
4
'14
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Avg.
'13
'14
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
January 7, 2015
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
70
70
65
65
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
60
55
50
CL2
CL3
12/12/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
12/19/2014
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
12/26/2014
CO1
1/2/2015
CO2
CO3
12/12/2014
CO4
CO5
CO6
CO7
12/19/2014
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
195
195
180
180
165
150
135
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
12/26/2014
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
55
50
CL1
1/2/2015
165
150
135
XB1
XB2
XB3
12/12/2014
XB4
XB5
XB6
XB7
12/19/2014
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
12/26/2014
PG1
PG2
PG3
12/12/2014
1/2/2015
PG4
PG5
PG6
PG7
12/19/2014
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
12/26/2014
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
215
215
200
200
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
60
185
170
155
1/2/2015
185
170
155
HO1
HO2
HO3
12/12/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
HO7
12/19/2014
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
12/26/2014
QS1
1/2/2015
QS2
QS3
12/12/2014
QS4
QS5
QS6
QS7
12/19/2014
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
12/26/2014
1/2/2015
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
25.00
25.00
19.00
19.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
13.00
7.00
1.00
13.00
7.00
1.00
1
2
12/12/2014
3
4
5
6
12/19/2014
7
8
9
12/26/2014
10
11
12
Avg.
1/2/2015
1
2
12/12/2014
3
4
5
6
12/19/2014
7
8
9
10
12/26/2014
11
12
Avg.
1/2/2015
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
January 7, 2015
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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January 7, 2015
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