1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. oil

January 22, 2015
Blake Fernandez504.582.2528
[email protected]
WEEKLY REFINING INDICATORS REPORT
WEEK ENDING 01/16/2015
Quick Take: Bearish inventory numbers as lower utilization
mostly accounted for the larger than expected crude build
this week. Utilization rates are down 5.5% wk/wk, as the
reduced rates were mostly seen on the East Coast (-9.4%)
and in the Midwest (-8.9%). On the demand front, gasoline
is up 8.7% and distillate is up 12.5% on a Y/Y trailing 4week basis.
Leonard Raymond504.582.2884
[email protected]
Days of Crude Demand Cover
27x
26x
24x
23x
•
•
•
Trailing 4-week average crude throughput is 0.4% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate January demand cover
of 24.7 days (January ‘14 = 22.9 days, January 10-14
avg. = 23.7).
Trailing 4-week average gasoline demand is 8.7% above
the year-ago comp. We estimate January demand cover
of 26.6 days (January ‘14 = 28.1 days, January 10-14
avg. = 27.4).
Trailing 4-week average distillate demand is 12.5%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate January
demand cover of 35.5 days (January ‘14 = 31.6 days,
January 10-14 avg. = 39.5).
21x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
Nov
2014
2015
Days of Gasoline Demand Cover
29x
27x
25x
23x
21x
•
Jan
Trailing 4-week average total product demand is 4.9%
above the year-ago comp.
We estimate January
demand cover of 59.0 days (January ‘14 = 54.8 days,
January 10-14 avg. = 57.1).
Mar
May
Jul
5-yr Avg.
Sep
Nov
2014
2015
Days of Distillate Demand Cover
55x
48x
41x
34x
27x
20x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
Sep
2014
Nov
2015
Days of Total Product Demand Cover
65x
60x
55x
50x
Jan
Mar
May
5-yr Avg.
Jul
2014
Sep
Nov
2015
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Scotia Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Scotia Howard Weil is a division of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., a member of the Scotiabank group, and represents Scotiabank’s energy equities business in the United
States. All relevant disclosures and certifications begin on Page 12 of this report.
Scotia Howard Weil  1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500  New Orleans, LA 70163
Page 1 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
DOE Inventories & Imports (000s)
TOTAL U.S.
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
Inventories
Crude
397,853
351,224
13%
344,047
16%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock) 240,922
235,265
2%
230,634
4%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
136,579
120,738
13%
144,403
-5%
14,534
122,045
18,468
102,270
-21%
19%
31,365
113,039
-54%
8%
7,218
7,544
-4%
8,410
-14%
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
683
528
29%
611
12%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
268
191
40%
216
24%
14,909
15,216
-2%
14,336
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
Imports
Crude
Crude Throughput
Refinery Utilization
85.5%
86.5%
-1%
82.5%
4%
4%
REGIONAL INVENTORY
Current
Year-ago % Change
5-Yr.
Average % Change
PADD 1 (Northeast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
12,685
10,973
16%
11,409
11%
66,008
62,731
5%
59,104
12%
20,334
18,953
7%
17,958
37,655
33,382
13%
50,834
-26%
6,965
30,690
10,347
23,035
-33%
33%
23,252
27,582
-70%
11%
118,896
52,503
108,584
53,044
100,973
53,638
18%
-1%
5,232
5,588
-6%
6,034
32,601
27,868
17%
31,347
196,833
81,321
161,862
77,084
22%
5%
163,769
76,768
11,257
9,269
21%
11,275
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
46,266
41,642
11%
43,917
5%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
19,905
19,327
3%
17,251
15%
7,873
4,435
7,539
4,165
4%
6,901
3,679
14%
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
49,535
33,217
50,477
34,867
-2%
50,645
34,223
-2%
-5%
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
15,621
13,681
14%
14,626
7%
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
# 2 Heating Oil
Diesel
PADD 2 (Midwest)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
9%
-2%
4%
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast)
Crude
Total Gasoline (includes RFG + blendstock)
RBOB (Alcohol)
20%
6%
PADD 4 (Rockies)
Total Distillate (Diesel + #2 Heating Oil)
6%
21%
PADD 5 (West Coast)
January 22, 2015
-3%
Page 2 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Demand vs. Supply Charts
US Crude Stocks (000 Bbls)
US Crude Demand (000 Bbl/d)
400,000
17,000
375,000
16,000
350,000
15,000
325,000
14,000
13,000
300,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
2014
5-yr Avg
US Gasoline Demand (000 Bbl/d)
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Gasoline Stocks (000 Bbls)
250,000
9,850
235,000
9,350
220,000
8,850
205,000
8,350
7,850
190,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
2014
5-yr Avg
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Distillate Stocks (000 Bbls)
US Distillate Demand (000 Bbl/d)
4,400
180,000
4,100
160,000
3,800
140,000
3,500
120,000
3,200
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
100,000
Jan
Mar
5-yr Avg
May
2014
US Total Product Demand (000 Bbl/d)
Jul
Sep
2015
Nov
5-yr Avg
US Total Product Stocks (000 Bbls)
1,200,000
21,000
1,150,000
20,000
19,000
1,100,000
18,000
1,050,000
17,000
1,000,000
Jan
Mar
May
2014
January 22, 2015
Jul
2015
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Jan
Mar
May
2014
Jul
2015
Sep
Nov
5-yr Avg
Page 3 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Refinery Utilization
US Total Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD I Refinery Utilization (%)
100
100.0
95
90.0
90
80.0
85
70.0
80
75
60.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
'14
Jun Jul
'15
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
5-yr Avg
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
PADD III Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD II Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Jan Feb
Nov Dec
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
'15
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
PADD V Refinery Utilization (%)
PADD IV Refinery Utilization (%)
101.0
100.0
91.0
90.0
81.0
80.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
61.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
January 22, 2015
Aug Sep Oct
'15
Nov Dec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May
Jun Jul
5-yr Avg
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
'15
Page 4 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
East Coast 6-3-2-1 (Brent + Freight)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$8.39
$7.46
$8.75
$9.31
QTD 15
$8.88
East Coast 6-3-2-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$21.18
$22.08
$20.55
$19.93
QTD 15
$9.45
'14
'15
Chicago 2-1-1
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Gulf Coast 3-2-1 (LLS)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$10.86
$14.05
$12.11
$6.19
QTD 15
$7.28
'14
'15
Gulf Coast 3-2-1
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
($6.00)
5-yr Range
January 22, 2015
'14
'15
Page 5 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Regional Crack Spreads
West Coast 5-3-2 (ANS cif W. Coast)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$14.00
$19.41
$16.85
$12.80
QTD 15
$7.88
West Coast 5-3-2
$42.50
$34.00
$25.50
$17.00
$8.50
$0.00
5-yr Range
NW Europe 2-1-1 (Brent)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$8.97
$11.54
$12.70
$11.21
QTD 15
$10.30
'14
'15
NW Europe 2-1-1
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
Singapore 2-1-1 (Dubai)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
$14.86
$13.88
$13.89
$15.22
QTD 15
$13.23
'14
'15
Singapore 2-1-1
$30.00
$24.00
$18.00
$12.00
$6.00
$0.00
5-yr Range
January 22, 2015
'14
'15
Page 6 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Maya
LLS- Maya
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
$15.17
$9.76
$10.09
$8.96
$9.64
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
'14
$3.73
$4.73
$3.70
$3.86
QTD 15
$4.05
5-yr Avg
LLS - Mars
LLS - Mars
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
'14
LLS - ANS
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
($1.52)
($4.05)
($1.24)
$1.58
$0.63
'15
5-yr Avg
LLS - ANS
$21
$14
$7
$0
($7)
($14)
'14
$5.84
$2.41
$3.43
$2.87
QTD 15
$1.25
5-yr Avg
LLS - WTI
LLS - WTI
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'14
January 22, 2015
'15
5-yr Avg
Page 7 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Crude Oil Differentials
LLS - Brent
LLS - Brent
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
QTD 15
$10
($3.51)
($4.35)
($0.94)
($0.30)
$5
$1.25
($5)
$0
($10)
($15)
'14
$9.35
$6.75
$4.37
$3.17
QTD 15
$0.00
5-yr Avg
Brent - WTI
Brent - WTI
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$32
$24
$16
$8
$0
($8)
'14
$5.45
$7.35
$8.86
$2.06
QTD 15
$1.88
5-yr Avg
WTI-WTS
WTI - WTS
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
($5)
'14
QTD 15
$12.95
$11.47
$10.81
$9.00
$5.88
5-yr Avg
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Brent - Clearbrook (Bakken)
Average:
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
'15
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'14
January 22, 2015
'15
'11-'14 Avg
Page 8 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
CFTC: Non-Commercial Positions
NYMEX WTI
NYMEX WTI: Open Interest vs. Price
Net Long (Short) Position
375,000
253,001 264,996 261,776
284,079 281,649 272,484 268,800 275,480
250,000
125,000
0
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
1/9/15
$120.00
1.75
$95.00
1.5
$70.00
1.25
$45.00
1
$20.00
2010
1/16/15
20 11
2012
2013
Open Interest
NYMEX RBOB
2015
WTI
Net Long (Short) Position
Net Long (Short) Position
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
1 contract = 42,000 gallons
0
76,971
70,021
78,248
82,672
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
77,522
78,352
68,060
72,965
# of contracts
# of contracts
2014
NYMEX #2 Heating Oil
100,000
75,000
WTI ($/bbl)
# of contracts
500,000
Oil Open Interest (MM Contracts)
2
1 contract = 1,000 barrels
50,000
25,000
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
(10,000)
(20,000)
(21,931)
(30,000)
(24,287)
(28,569) (28,613)
(28,973) (28,451)
(28,723)
(32,731)
0
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
January 22, 2015
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
(40,000)
Page 9 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Shipping
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: CRUDE OIL
Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage: GASOLINE
WTI-Brent
(Net of Freight)
USAC-NWE
(Net of Freight)
$0.00
$0.00
1/9/15
1/16/15
16.0
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
$ per barrel
($1.00)
($1.01)
1/2/15
cents per gallon
$0.00
($0.87)
($1.43)
($2.00)
($1.28)
($1.88)
($3.00)
12.0
8.4
8.0
6.3
4.8
4.8
3.4
3.1
4.0
1.0
($3.12)
0.9
0.0
11/28/14
($4.00)
12/5/14
12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
Gulf Coast/Europe Arbitrage: ULSD
Persian Gulf-USGC: Freight Rate (250' dirty tanker)
USGC-NWE
Trailing 8 weeks
(Net of Freight)
$1.60
0.0
0.0
0.0
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
1/2/15
0.0
0.0
1/9/15
1/16/15
(0.6)
(1.5)
(1.7)
(1.6)
$1.20
$ per barrel
cents per gallon
1.5
$1.05
$0.85
$0.85
$0.92
$0.92
$0.85
$0.98
$0.85
$0.80
$0.40
(3.0)
(3.0)
$0.00
11/28/14 12/5/14 12/12/14 12/19/14 12/26/14
(4.5)
1/2/15
1/9/15
1/16/15
Total US Product Imports (000 Bbl/d)
Total US Product Exports (000 Bbl/d)
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Range
'14
1
4
'15
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
5-yr Range
'14
'15
Note: Arb spread estimates provided above represent absolute values:
Positive #
Arb profit on NWE-sourced cargoes imported to U.S.
Negative #
Arb profit (ignore +/- sign) on U.S.-sourced cargoes exported to NWE
January 22, 2015
Page 10 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
WTI
BRENT
NYMEX WTI: 12-Month Strip
ICE Brent: 12-Month Strip
70
70
64
64
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
Energy Futures
58
52
46
CL2
CL3
12/26/2014
CL4
CL5
CL6
1/2/2015
CL7
CL8
CL9 CL10 CL11 CL12
1/9/2015
CO1
1/16/2015
CO2
CO3
CO4
12/26/2014
CO5
CO6
CO7
1/2/2015
CO8
RBOB
NYMEX RBOB: 12-Month Strip
ICE RBOB: 12-Month Strip
190
190
175
175
160
145
130
CO9 CO10 CO11 CO12
1/9/2015
RBOB
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
52
46
CL1
1/16/2015
160
145
130
XB1
XB2
XB3
XB4
12/26/2014
XB5
XB6
XB7
1/2/2015
XB8
XB9 XB10 XB11 XB12
1/9/2015
PG1
PG2
PG3
PG4
12/26/2014
1/16/2015
PG5
PG6
PG7
1/2/2015
PG8
PG9 PG10 PG11 PG12
1/9/2015
1/16/2015
#2 HEATING OIL
GASOIL
NYMEX #2 Oil: 12-Month Strip
ICE Gasoil: 12-Month Strip
205
205
190
190
¢ per gallon
¢ per gallon
58
175
160
145
175
160
145
HO1
HO2
HO3
12/26/2014
HO4
HO5
HO6
1/2/2015
HO7
HO8
HO9 HO10 HO11 HO12
1/9/2015
QS1
1/16/2015
QS2
QS3
QS4
12/26/2014
QS5
QS6
QS7
1/2/2015
QS8
QS9 QS10 QS11 QS12
1/9/2015
1/16/2015
3-2-1 REFINING MARGIN
2-1-1 REFINING MARGIN
NYMEX 3-2-1: 12-Month Strip
ICE 2-1-1: 12-Month Strip
25.00
25.00
19.00
19.00
$ per barrel
$ per barrel
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
13.00
7.00
1.00
13.00
7.00
1.00
1
2
12/26/2014
3
4
5
1/2/2015
6
7
8
9
1/9/2015
10
11
12
Avg.
1/16/2015
1
2
12/26/2014
3
4
5
6
1/2/2015
7
8
9
1/9/2015
10
11
12
Avg.
1/16/2015
* Only 8 contracts available for European Gas Oil
January 22, 2015
Page 11 of 12
Weekly Refining Indicators Report
Disclosures
Information and sources for all charts and tables in this report were compiled from Scotia Howard Weil, EIA and Bloomberg.
Analyst Certification
I, Blake Fernandez, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securities or issuers; and I, Blake Fernandez, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
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but not limited to, acting as an underwriter in an offering or financial advisor in a merger or acquisition, or serving as a placement agent
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objectivity of this report.
For applicable current disclosures for all covered companies, please write to the Scotia Howard Weil Research Department at the following
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Scotia Howard Weil Research Department
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New Orleans, Louisiana 70163
Additional Disclaimers and Disclosures
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial
situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral
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January 22, 2015
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