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January 19, 2015
GREEK EQUITIES DAILY
Market Comment
The market ended the week on a negative footing, posting 1.79% decline,
limiting the week’s performance to a 1.41% gain. The banking sector was at the
forefront of this evident weakness on Friday ending 4.63% lower. Trading
activity was somewhat higher amounting to EUR99.8mn. Several names among
large-caps came under pressure including OPAP (-8.02%), Fourlis (-5.07%)and
Metka (-4.15%), while on the other hand OTE (+2.70%) was the main
outperformer. Sentiment overall remains weak in the final run up to the
elections, therefore we expect the market to remain jittery in the coming days.
Athens General Index
Politics // Syriza leading 3.1-5% according to latest polls
The latest round of opinion polls published over the weekend suggest that
Syriza retains a 3.1%-5% lead over New Democracy. Kapa Research shows Syriza
leading by 3.1% compared with 2.6% last week (garnering 31.2% of votes).
Metron Analysis suggests Syriza’s lead has widened to 4.6%, with the
frontrunner still not being able to secure an absolute majority (147 seats).
Another poll conducted by Public Issue suggests Syriza is leading with a 5%
margin (35.5% vs. 30.5%) securing 144 seats. The previous poll conducted by
the same company was suggesting Syriza was leading by 8% and might secure a
thin majority (151 seats).
Market Statistics
Economy // Press reports on EU openness to possible further program
extension, while Greek FinMin warns of complacency
According to press over the weekend, it seems that EU officials have been
discussing the prospects of extending Greece’s program by up to 6-months in
an effort to give a newly formed Greek government the time to engage in
deliberations with the troika. We note that such an extension would have to be
requested by the Greek side as soon as a new government is in place. The
French FinMin offered additional leeway as he reportedly stated that he’d be
open to negotiations with a new Greek government on matters relating to the
program and national debt. The Greek Finmin highlighted during an interview
on Sunday, that he fears that involved parties on the Greek side exhibit an
unjustified complacency, which is backed by the fact that funding has remained
for the most part uninterrupted over the last year, nevertheless deadlines
remain tight thus non allowing for the exhibited complacency.
Economy // Press reports on potential new levies included in Syriza’s agenda
According to the local paper Eleftheros Typos, Syriza’s program related to social
security provides for the introduction of a series of taxes including taxation on
all financial transactions and special duties on gaming. The article refers to a
series of documents marked as Syriza’s proposals under public consultation,
which, indeed, make generic reference to the imposition of several “social
levies” for the benefit of the social security system. With regard to gaming in
particular, measures under consideration seem to be levies on player’s bets as
well as a gaming duty burdening the operators (e.g. OPAP, casinos, Hellenic
Lotteries etc.). From the language used in the document it is not clear whether
this refers to the increase of the gaming duty already in place or whether it
simply does not take into account its existence since 2013.
1
16/01/15
16/11/14
16/09/14
16/07/14
16/05/14
16/03/14
16/01/14
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
Close
1D %
YTD %
ASE General Index
790.6
-1.8
-4.3
FTSE ASE Large Cap
252.6
-2.2
-4.6
FTSE ASE Mid Cap
754.1
-1.9
-2.5
Turnover EUR mn
99.8
Avg Turnover (3mo) EUR mn
101.9
Market cap EUR bn
52.2
Valuation*
2014e
2015e
2016e
P/E
47.8
22.4
15.6
EV/EBITDA
8.1
5.4
4.7
P/BV
1.0
1.0
0.9
Yield
2.8%
3.6%
4.9%
*Focuslist valuation data: Our Focuslist consists of 29 stocks accounting
for ca 85% of total ATHEX Mcap
Daily Best - Worst Performers *
Sidenor
2.7%
Intracom
-8.0%
OTE
2.6%
OPAP
-7.2%
Autohellas
2.0%
Alpha Bank
-6.4%
*FTSE Large Cap & FTSE Mid Cap
Greek Sovereign Yields
GGB Feb'23
GGB Feb'28
GGB Feb'33
GGB Feb'37
GGB Feb'38
GGB Feb'42
9.73%
9.37%
8.60%
8.26%
8.23%
7.89%
See Appendix for Analysts Certification and important
Disclosures
GREEK EQUITIES DAILY
January 19, 2015
Banks // Eurosystem funding up by EUR 21bn during the last few weeks, ECB
approves EUR 40bn credit line through ELA (press)
According to press reports (kathimerini), Greek banks’ reliance on the
Eurosystem has increased by EUR 21bn during the last few weeks, totaling more
than EUR 65bn, in their effort to weather tightening liquidity conditions
domestically. Greek banks’ liquidity positions have deteriorated lately mainly as
a result of: i) deposit outflows (ca EUR 3.0bn during December, continuing
during January), ii) higher needs for tbill auctions by ca EUR 9.0bn, given that
foreign investors do not rollover their holdings, iii) reduced access to interbank
markets which has cost about EUR 9.0bn lately and iv) lower value of collaterals
posted to ECB. At the same time, the ECB appears to have approved a EUR
40bn credit line for Greek banks through ELA as two of the four systemic banks
have already submitted requests to Bank of Greece in order to draw ca EUR
5.0bn in a proactive move to secure comfortable liquidity ahead of possible
further tightening of liquidity conditions. Finally, according to German press
reports (Der Spiegel) Greek banks may not be able to take advantage of the
ECB’s QE program that is expected to be launched soon given the latest political
developments.
Events Calendar
Results Announcements
AGMs / EGMs
Ex – Div
Economy // Fitch rating downgrades Greece outlook to “negative” on the back
of political uncertainty, maintains rating at “B”
The rating agency announced that it was reducing its outlook on the country’s
rating to “negative” from “stable” on the back of the political uncertainty given
the January 25th snap elections and the low visibility of future policy making.
The agency believes that the new government and the troika are likely to come
to an agreement as they both have strong incentives to do so. The next review
is set for May 15th, while the downside risks to the rating involve a prolonged
political deadlock and both macro and fiscal slippage. On the contrary, the
formation of a stable government and a timely agreement with creditors as well
an acceleration in economic activity would have a positive effect on the
agency’s view on the country’s credit profile.
Equity Research
[email protected]
Nikos Koskoletos, CFA
+30 2103720257
[email protected]
Stamatios Draziotis, CFA
+30 2103720259
[email protected]
Helen Herra
+30 2103720118
[email protected]
Panagiotis Kladis, CFA
+30 2103720267
[email protected]
Katerina Zaharopoulou
+30 2103720252
[email protected]
George Andrinopoulos
+30 2103720251
[email protected]
Christina Kouklaki
+30 2103720254
2
[email protected]
GREEK EQUITIES DAILY
January 19, 2015
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A.
Member of Athens Exchange,
Cyprus Stock Exchange and Eurobank Group.
10 Filellinon Street
105 57 Athens, Greece
Telephone: +30 210-3720 000
Facsimile: +30 210-3720 001
Website: www.eurobankequities.gr
E-mail: [email protected]
Regulated by the Hellenic Capital Markets Commission
Authorisation No: 6/149/12.1.1999
VAT No: 094543092, General Commercial Reg. Num 003214701000
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been issued by Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., a member of the Athens Exchange, a member of the Cyprus Stock Exchange and a member of Eurobank
Ergasias S.A. Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., is regulated by the Hellenic Capital Markets Commission (HCMC) with authorization number 6/149/12.1.1999. This report
may not be reproduced in any manner or provided to any other persons. Each person that receives a copy by acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it will not distribute
or provide it to any other person. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. The investments discussed in this
report may be unsuitable for investors, depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The investments discussed in this report are subject to risks and in
respect of some investments there is risk for multiplied losses to be caused in respect to the capital invested.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been verified by Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. The opinions
expressed herein may not necessarily coincide with those of any member of the Eurobank Group. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy,
completeness, correctness, timeliness of fairness of the information or opinions herein, all of which are subject to change without notice. No responsibility of liability whatsoever
or howsoever arising is accepted in relation to the contents hereof by Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. or any of its directors, officers or employees.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. follows procedures under Eurobank Group policies that set up Chinese Walls, restricting communication between Research and other
departments inside the Company or the Group so that Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. complies with regulations on confidential information and market abuse.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. or any of its related legal persons, does not hold shareholdings exceeding 5% of the total issued share capital in any of the subject
companies mentioned in this report, with the exception of Hellenic Post Bank, Grivalia Properties, Lamda Development, Altec, Nikas, Quality & Reliability, Alpha Trust Andromeda,
Kardasilaris and to the Cyprus Stock Exchange listed Cyprus Airways Public Ltd.
None of the subject companies mentioned in this report holds shareholdings exceeding 5% of the total issued share capital of Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., or any of its
related legal persons, with the exception of Eurobank Ergasias S.A.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., or any of its related legal persons, is not a market maker (of stocks or of derivative contracts on stocks) to any of the subject companies
mentioned in this report with the exception of Alpha Bank, Bank of Cyprus, Coca Cola Hellenic, Corinth Pipeworks, Ellaktor, Eurobank, Grivalia Properties, EYDAP, Gek Terna,
Frigoglass, Hellenic Exchanges, Hellenic Petroleum, Intralot, Jumbo, MIG, Motor Oil, Mytilineos, National Bank, OPAP, OTE, Piraeus Bank, PPC, Sidenor, Terna Energy, Titan,
Viohalco, FF Group, Metka, Piraeus Port Authority, Euroconsultants, Anemos, Profile, Reds.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., or any of its related investment banking services’ legal persons, is not a party to any other agreement relating to the provision of
investment banking services, which a) has been in effect over the previous twelve months or b) has given rise during the same period to the payment of a compensation or to the
promise to get a compensation paid, with any of the subject companies mentioned in this report with the exception of the following: Anemos, Athens Medical Center, Attica Bank,
Digimed Communications, DOL, Electroniki Athens, Ellaktor, Eurobank, Grivalia Properties, EYATH, EYDAP, Hygeia, Inform Lykos, Lamda Development, Maillis, Piraeus Bank,
Selonda Aquaculture, Teletypos.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A., or any of its related legal persons, is not a party to an agreement relating to the production of this report with the subject companies
mentioned in this report.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. occasionally trades for own account on investment instruments related to companies mentioned in this report.
Analyst Certification:
This report has been written by Nikos Koskoletos (CFA), Stamatios Draziotis (CFA), Helen Herra, Katerina Zaharopoulou, Panagiotis Kladis (CFA), Christina Kouklaki.
Analyst Compensation:
The remuneration of Nikos Koskoletos (CFA), Stamatios Draziotis (CFA), Helen Herra, Katerina Zaharopoulou, Panagiotis Kladis (CFA), Christina Kouklaki is not tied to the
investment banking services performed by Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. or any of its related legal persons. Nikos Koskoletos (CFA), Stamatios Draziotis (CFA), Helen
Herra, Katerina Zaharopoulou, Panagiotis Kladis (CFA), Christina Kouklaki did not receive or purchase the shares of the subject companies mentioned in this report prior to a public
offering of such shares.
Planned Frequency of Updates:
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. provides daily and monthly updates as well as updates on companies based on company-specific developments or quarterly financial
results announcements or any other publicly available information.
Eurobank Equities Investment Firm S.A. Rating System:
Stock Ratings
Coverage Universe
Count
Total
Buy
14
48%
Hold
8
28%
Sell
3
10%
Restricted
2
7%
Under Review
2
7%
Total
29
100%
Investment Banking Clients
Count
Total
2
14%
2
25%
0
0%
2
100%
0
0%
Analyst Stock Ratings:
Buy:
Hold:
Sell:
Restricted:
Under Review:
3
Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return (percentage change in share price to projected target price plus projected
dividend yield), we recommend that investors buy the stock.
We adopt a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, on this time horizon, do not recommend either Buy or Sell.
Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock.
Under Eurobank Group policy and / or regulations which do not allow ratings
Our estimates, target price and recommendation are currently under review.