Weekly Dry Bulk Data Week 3, 2014 Average Time Charter Rates The Matrix: Illustrative 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 year period rates for Handysize, Ultramax and Kamsarmax tonnage USD/Day Jan ’15 Chng +/- Handysize 38,000 dwt 1 year 8,500 Jan ‘16 Chng +/- Chng +/- Jan ‘17 High 2014 Low n/a n/a n/a n/a 2 year 3 year 8,750 9,000 9,000 9,500 n/a 10,000 n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 year 9,500 10,000 10,750 n/a n/a 10,000 10,500 10,750 n/a n/a 10 year Ultramax 61,000 dwt 1 year 10,000 -250 n/a n/a 15,000 10,250 2 year 10,500 0 11,000 n/a 14,500 10,750 3 year 10,750 0 11,250 0 12,000 0 14,500 11,000 5 year 11,250 0 12,000 0 12,250 0 14,250 12,000 12,000 0 12,500 0 12,500 0 14,000 12,500 10 year Kamsarmax 82,000 dwt 1 year 8,000 +500 n/a n/a 15,250 8,750 2 year 8,500 0 9,500 0 n/a 15,000 9,750 3 year 9,750 0 11,000 0 12,500 0 14,500 10,250 5 year 11,500 0 12,500 0 12,750 0 14,500 11,750 10 year 12,500 0 12,750 -250 12,750 -250 14,500 12,750 Illustrative rates estimated basis Jan. 15 with Pacific delivery. Vessel prices (million USD) Handysize 35,000 dwt Supramax 56,000 dwt Kamsarmax 82,000 dwt Capesize 180,000 dwt 5 year NB 5 year NB* 5 year NB 5 year NB 13-15 21-23 18-20 26-28 19-21 28-30 36-38 51-53 5 year: Japanese built. NB: Chinese built vessel for 2016 delivery “->” indicates direction compared to last week *Based on Chinese built 64,000 dwt Period fixtures (1 year and longer) Vessel transactions (representative) 'Polymnia' 2012 98,704 dwt dely Richards Bay 17 Jan 9 /13 months trading redel worldwide USD 7,500 daily + USD 237,500 bb. 'Danae' 2001 75,106 dwt dely Bayuquan 16 Jan 11/14 months trading redel worldwide USD 7,650 daily. 'Santa Barbara' 2015 179,426 dwt dely ex yard Beihai 13/17 Jan 11/14 months trading redel worldwide USD 12,000 daily. New building Bohai Shipyard contracted 1 x 210,000 dwt with PSU Shipping Group at undisclosed price, with delivery 2016. Second hand M/V Blue Matterhorn (81,000 dwt blt '11 Hyundai) sold at USD 22 mill. to Greek Buyers. M/V Verdi (58,000 dwt blt '07 Tsuneishi Zhoushan) sold at region USD 15 mill to Technomar. M/V Bikan (52,000 dwt blt '01 Sanoyas) sold at USD 9.7 mill to Indonesian Buyers. This report is based on our knowledge of relevant market conditions. Our estimates are made on the basis of this knowledge, but other circumstances, or new circumstances, as well as general uncertainty could cause the market to develop differently. We take general reservation for misprints. © All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means) without the written permission of the copyright owner. Likewise, any quoting is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright owner. Source: Baltic Exchange USD/day Handy Supra Panamax Cape Jan. 15 6,384 7,688 6,114 6,983 Baltic Daily Forward Assessment USD/day Source: Baltic Exchange Handy TC Supra 5TC Panamax 4TC Cape 4TC Jan 6,588 7,958 6,167 5,440 Feb 6,363 7,496 6,742 6,900 Q2 15 7,325 8,141 7,883 9,060 Q3 15 6,875 8,071 7,433 10,935 Q4 15 7,563 8,767 8,400 15,005 Q1 16 6,825 8,008 7,708 9,160 Cal 16 7,413 8,394 8,375 11,980 Cal 17 7,788 8,554 8,658 13,390 Cal 18 8,213 8,881 8,925 14,360 Market drivers China’s steel export reached a record high in December with 10.2 million tons. Thereby total steel export for 2014 ended at 93.8 million tons – up by 50% compared to 2013. The growing export has been caused by weaker demand from China’s construction sector pushing excess Chinese steel production into international markets. Exports in 2015 is however expected to fall after the government canceled export tax rebates for steel alloys that contain boron. China’s import of iron ore in December also reached a new record with 86.9 million tons – up by 29% compared to November. Despite this large volume, Chinese iron ore inventories declined through December – suggesting improvement in underlying demand. Imports throughout 2014 totaled 932.5 million tons compared to 820.3 million tons in 2013. The price of iron ore fell 47% in 2014, which supported an increase in demand. After declining since the end of November, the Capesize Baltic rates have been adjusted upwards this week. Since end last week the rates have moved up by 56%. The World Bank has cut its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from 3.4%.
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