Tata Consultancy Services TCS.NS TCS IN EQUITY: SOFTWARE & SERVICES Hiccups aside, still the strongest Global Markets Research 14-15% constant currency growth expectations over FY15-17F intact 16 January 2015 Rating Remains Action: Demand moderation temporary, retain Buy We would have been concerned if demand moderation at TCS seen in 2Q/3Q was due to fundamental factors, but it appears to be more macro linked or one-off in nature and restricted to small segments like energy and Diligenta business (3% of revenue). Management indicated that all other segments, especially US and LATAM/India, are seeing good demand traction, with even challenged segments like retail likely to improve going forward. This reinforces our belief that nothing has changed fundamentally at TCS and it remains well positioned to benefit from both cost efficiency and discretionary demand. We expect TCS to record USD revenue CAGR of 14% and EPS CAGR of 15% over FY15-17F; we retain Buy. HCLT/CTSH are our top buys in the sector. Buy Target price Increased from 2760 INR 2800 Closing price 15 January 2015 INR 2539 Potential upside +10.3% Anchor themes We prefer companies that provide revenue upside potential with margin comfort and are available at reasonable valuations. Catalyst: Progressively improving demand traction into FY16F 3Q: In-line quarter, outlook remains positive TCS reported constant currency (CC) revenue growth of 2.5% q-q and EBIT margins were up 20bps to 27%, in line with our expectations. Weak spots in the result were: 1) weakness in UK, and retail, energy and utilities segments; and 2) headcount addition of 1.6% q-q (with limited scope on utilisations). However, management indications of: 1) US, LATAM and India likely being better than last year, 2) Europe growth of 6.6% q-q in CC terms and UK (ex of Diligenta) seeing better growth going forward, and 3) overall positive commentary on order book, was heartening. Nomura vs consensus Our TP is in line with consensus. FY16/17F EPS lower by 3%/2%; TP rises to INR2,800 on roll-forward We build ~100bp cross currency impacts in 4Q and reset our USD-INR assumption to 62 (vs. 61 earlier) and look for USD revenue CAGR of 14%, stable EBIT margins at ~27% and EPS CAGR of 15% over FY15-17F. Our TP rises to INR2,800 (vs. INR2,760) on roll-forward and is based on 20x one-year forward EPS (up to Dec-16) of INR140. Pinku Pappan - NFASL [email protected] +91 22 4037 4360 Year-end 31 Mar FY14 Currency (INR) Actual FY15F Old New FY16F Old New Research analysts India Technology/Services & Software Ashwin Mehta - NFASL [email protected] +91 22 4037 4465 FY17F Old New Revenue (mn) 818,094 960,007 952,265 1,113,477 1,092,208 1,281,152 1,254,285 Reported net profit (mn) 191,169 215,103 214,744 251,073 244,116 291,162 284,901 Normalised net profit (mn) 191,169 215,103 214,744 251,073 244,116 291,162 284,901 97.67 109.90 109.72 128.28 124.73 148.76 145.56 FD norm. EPS growth (%) 37.1 12.5 12.3 16.7 13.7 16.0 16.7 FD normalised P/E (x) 26.0 N/A 23.1 N/A 20.4 N/A 17.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 N/A 17.3 N/A 14.7 N/A 12.5 Price/book (x) 9.0 N/A 8.8 N/A 6.9 N/A 5.4 FD normalised EPS Dividend yield (%) 1.3 N/A 3.0 N/A 1.4 N/A 1.6 39.7 38.6 38.5 38.9 37.9 35.1 34.7 net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash ROE (%) Net debt/equity (%) Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data and detailed price/index chart See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 Key data on Tata Consultancy Services Relative performance chart Cashflow statement (INRmn) Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research Notes: Performance (%) Absolute (INR) Absolute (USD) Rel to MSCI India 1M 3M 12M 7.7 -5.9 9.6 9.7 -6.5 9.3 7.7 -13.8 -19.2 M cap (USDmn) Free float (%) 3-mth ADT (USDmn) 80,554.0 23.0 48.7 Year-end 31 Mar EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Dec in other LT assets Inc in other LT liabilities Adjustments CF after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others CF from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F 180,871 251,322 275,448 317,053 361,666 -19,219 -28,115 -13,112 -23,774 -26,903 -41,838 -62,801 -68,348 -76,253 -88,435 119,814 160,406 193,989 217,026 246,328 -27,617 -34,373 -32,624 -36,000 -36,570 92,197 126,033 161,365 181,026 209,758 0 0 0 0 0 -8,226 0 -704 83,267 -50,377 -3,428 2,783 0 11,175 -39,847 43,420 124,642 168,063 -168,063 -12,327 0 -7,076 106,630 -73,275 25,243 3,028 0 15,891 -29,113 77,517 168,063 245,580 -245,580 -7,547 0 835 154,653 -167,159 -36,362 141 0 25,880 -177,500 -22,847 245,580 222,732 -222,732 -16,723 0 -570 163,733 -82,435 0 1,562 0 22,183 -58,689 105,043 222,732 327,776 -327,776 -19,904 0 0 189,854 -91,594 0 1,777 0 31,470 -58,347 131,507 327,776 459,282 -459,282 Balance sheet (INRmn) Income statement (INRmn) Year-end 31 Mar Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves FY13 629,895 -342,214 287,681 -117,602 FY14 818,094 -433,984 384,110 -146,031 FY15F FY16F FY17F 952,265 1,092,208 1,254,285 -528,955 -607,937 -704,279 423,310 484,271 550,005 -166,099 -186,085 -208,139 170,079 238,079 257,212 298,186 341,867 180,871 251,322 275,448 317,053 361,666 -10,792 -13,243 -18,237 -18,867 -19,799 170,079 238,079 257,212 298,186 341,867 11,175 15,891 25,880 22,183 31,470 181,254 253,970 283,092 320,369 373,336 -40,344 -60,712 -65,981 -73,685 -85,867 140,910 193,258 217,111 246,684 287,469 -1,494 -2,089 -2,367 -2,568 -2,568 0 0 0 0 0 139,416 191,169 214,744 244,116 284,901 0 0 0 0 0 139,416 191,169 214,744 244,116 284,901 -50,377 -73,275 -167,159 -82,435 -91,594 89,039 117,893 47,585 161,681 193,307 Valuations and ratios Reported P/E (x) Normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) ROE (%) ROA (pretax %) 35.6 35.6 35.6 0.9 41.5 12.1 26.6 28.3 45.7 28.7 27.0 22.1 22.3 36.1 37.9 53.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 1.3 31.0 9.0 18.8 19.9 47.0 30.7 29.1 23.4 23.9 38.3 39.7 59.8 23.1 23.1 23.1 3.0 25.6 8.8 17.3 18.5 44.5 28.9 27.0 22.6 23.3 77.8 38.5 54.6 20.4 20.4 20.4 1.4 22.9 6.9 14.7 15.6 44.3 29.0 27.3 22.4 23.0 33.8 37.9 55.6 17.4 17.4 17.4 1.6 20.2 5.4 12.5 13.2 43.9 28.8 27.3 22.7 23.0 32.1 34.7 55.5 28.8 25.5 31.1 31.1 29.9 39.0 37.1 37.1 16.4 9.6 12.3 12.3 14.7 15.1 13.7 13.7 14.8 14.1 16.7 16.7 Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA Normalised EPS Normalised FDEPS As at 31 Mar Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F 168,063 245,580 222,732 327,776 459,282 172,366 0 16,560 356,989 0 81,944 35,063 0 46,740 520,735 222,360 0 16,907 484,846 0 103,644 41,568 0 59,067 689,125 251,890 0 20,853 495,475 0 118,601 40,164 0 66,614 720,853 290,215 333,810 0 0 24,025 27,634 642,015 820,727 0 0 136,304 153,075 40,164 40,164 0 0 83,337 103,241 901,820 1,117,206 88,526 110,752 131,115 148,839 169,140 88,526 110,752 131,115 148,839 169,140 15,089 18,117 18,258 19,821 21,598 103,615 128,869 149,374 168,659 190,738 6,561 6,905 8,701 8,701 8,701 1,000 0 0 0 0 1,957 1,959 1,957 1,957 1,957 407,603 551,393 560,821 722,502 915,809 410,560 553,352 562,778 724,459 917,766 520,735 689,125 720,853 901,820 1,117,206 Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover 4.03 na 4.38 na 3.78 na 4.31 na 4.85 na Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Per share Reported EPS (INR) Norm EPS (INR) FD norm EPS (INR) BVPS (INR) DPS (INR) 71.23 71.23 71.23 209.77 22.00 97.67 97.67 97.67 282.72 32.00 109.72 109.72 109.72 287.54 75.00 124.73 124.73 124.73 370.15 36.00 145.56 145.56 145.56 468.91 40.00 89.8 0.0 83.6 6.2 88.1 0.0 83.8 4.3 90.9 0.0 83.4 7.4 90.8 0.0 84.3 6.6 90.8 0.0 82.4 8.4 Activity (days) Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 2 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 Demand moderation temporary While TCS’ 3Q growth was slightly below that of INFO after a long period of time, we believe the demand moderation seen in 2Q/3Q is temporary as the issues behind it are likely to be resolved over the next couple of quarters. The only areas where we think there is a fundamental deterioration is in the energy & utilities segment (~4% of TCS revenues) and Diligenta business (3 % of TCS revenues), which together constitute a small proportion of business and are unlikely to affect the overall growth materially, in our view. Management indications suggest no issues with demand going into FY16F with: • US, LATAM and India likely being better than last year. • Europe growth of 6.6% q-q in CC terms and UK (ex of Diligenta) seeing better growth going forward. • Strong demand in BFSI and likely improvement in retail going forward. • Overall positive commentary on order book. We retain our CQGR expectations of 3.6% over FY16/17F and continue to expect 1415% CC revenue growth over this period. Fig. 1: Sequential growth matrix q-q grow th (%) 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 Service Lines ADM 2% 1% 5% 6% -2% Engineering and Industrial Services 1% 6% -1% 9% -2% Infrastructure Services 5% 2% 11% 16% 4% Enterprise Solutions 5% 2% 7% 4% -1% Global Consulting 6% 2% -1% 6% 16% Asset Leverage Solutions -12% 15% 1% -2% 4% Assurance Services 3% 1% 8% 4% 1% BPO 5% 2% 4% 4% 1% Industry Verticals BFSI 2% 2% 3% 3% 0% Manufacturing 8% 0% 5% 25% 0% Telecom 6% -1% 7% 1% 0% Life Sciences & Healthcare 7% 5% 9% 6% 2% Retail & Distribution 2% 0% 8% 4% -1% Transportation 6% 2% 8% 3% 0% Energy and Utilities 3% 2% 8% 17% -2% Media & Entertainment 8% 15% 10% 6% 0% Hi-Tech 1% 2% 9% 10% 4% Others -8% 4% 8% 9% -4% America 2% 1% 5% 4% 2% UK 4% 4% 5% 3% -6% Rest of Europe 7% 6% 5% 2% 2% Europe 5% 5% 5% 2% -3% -6% 0% 7% 10% 0% 7% 2% 8% 41% -4% Geographies India APAC lbero America MEA Com pany overall 3% -3% 5% -8% 11% 13% -3% 0% 1% 5% 3% 2% 5% 6% 0% Source: Company data, Nomura research 3 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 FY16/17F EPS estimates lower by 3%/2% We build ~100bp cross currency impacts in 4QF, reset our USD-INR assumption to 62 (vs. 61 earlier) and look for USD revenue CAGR of 14%, stable EBIT margins at ~27% and EPS CAGR of 15% over FY15-17F. Fig. 2: Estimate revisions New Old Change (%) FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY16F 15,554 17,616 20,230 15,832 18,254 21,002 -1.8 -3.5 -3.7 952.3 1,092.2 1,254.3 960.0 1,113.5 1,281.2 -0.8 -1.9 -2.1 EBITDA margin (%) 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.6 10 bps 0 bps 30 bps Tax Rate (%) 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 30 bps 0 bps 0 bps 109.7 124.7 145.6 109.9 128.3 148.8 -0.2 -2.8 -2.2 Revenue (USD mn) Revenue (INR bn) Diluted EPS (INR) FY17F Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Maintain Buy, TP lifted to INR2,800 We continue to be positive on TCS despite the growth moderation in 2Q/3Q as: 1) underlying strength of TCS’ business model is intact, and 2) recent demand issues are likely to be temporary and remain restricted to smaller segments like energy & utilities and Diligenta, with other segments showing improved traction going forward. We maintain our Buy rating on TCS as: • We believe TCS is best placed relative to peers in a demand-upturn scenario to benefit from both cost-efficiency drives at clients and an improved discretionary spending outlook on a broader portfolio and higher sales efficiency vs. peers. • We expect 14-15% CC revenue growth to sustain over FY15-17F and see a healthy 15% EPS CAGR over this duration. This, in our view, should help sustain TCS’ premium valuations. • Our TP rises to INR2,800 (vs. INR2,760 earlier), on roll-forward and is based on 20x one-year forward EPS (up to Dec-16) of INR140. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged. Valuation methodology and risks Our TP of INR2,800 is based on 20x one-year forward EPS (up to Dec-16) of INR140. Our valuation methodology remains unchanged. The 20x multiple is at the higher end of TCS’ historical valuation range; we expect this to be sustained on higher predictability of growth/margins and better positioning to benefit from the demand upturn. Downside risks are 1) slower-than-anticipated growth, and 2) INR appreciation. 3QFY15 result highlights • USD revenue growth of 0.1% q-q (vs. our and consensus estimates of 0.4% q-q). CC growth at 2.5% q-q (vs. 2.6% at INFO) was in line with our estimate. • CC growth of 2.5% q-q was led by 0.4% volume growth, realization increase of 2.3% and offshore shift impact of -0.2% q-q. • EBIT margins were up 20bp q-q to 27% (in line with our and consensus expectations). • PAT at INR54.4bn (vs. our and consensus estimate of ~INR55bn). The miss vs. our estimate was largely driven by higher-than-anticipated tax rate of 24% (vs. our estimate of 23%). • TCS added 4,868 employees on a net basis, an increase of 1.6% q-q. • Utilisations touched a historical peak at 82.1% (including trainees) and 86.7% (excluding trainees). • The company declared an interim dividend of INR5 per share. • The company has net cash of USD3.1bn as of 3QFY15. 4 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 Fig. 3: TCS 3QFY15: Actual vs. expected Key param eters 3QFY15 2QFY15 q-q (%) 3QFY14 y-y (%) 0.1 3,438 14.3 15.1 Actual Estim ate Revenues (USD mn) Revenues (INR mn) EBITDA (INR mn) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (INR mn) EPS (INR) 3,931 3,943 3,929 245,011 245,249 238,165 2.9 212,940 70,531 70,993 68,087 3.6 66,866 5.5 28.8 28.9 28.6 20bps 31.4 -260bps 54,441 55,436 52,883 2.9 53,140 2.4 27.8 28.3 27.0 2.9 27.2 2.4 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Fig. 4: Quarterly performance and expectations FY14 Y/E MARCH INR m n Revenues (USD m n) q-q change % Revenues FY15 q-q change % FY15F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QF 3,165 3,337 3,438 3,503 3,694 3,929 3,931 4,000 13,443 15,554 4.1 5.4 3.0 1.9 5.5 6.4 0.1 1.7 16.2 15.7 179,871 209,772 212,940 215,511 Direct Expenses FY14 9.5 16.6 1.5 1.2 94,891 107,010 107,993 112,171 221,110 238,165 245,011 247,979 2.6 7.7 2.9 1.2 118,824 129,529 132,161 132,027 818,094 952,265 29.9 16.4 422,065 512,541 SG&A Expenses 33,448 36,372 38,081 36,806 38,616 40,549 42,319 42,791 144,707 164,275 EBITDA 51,532 66,390 66,866 66,534 63,670 68,087 70,531 73,160 251,322 275,448 28.6 31.6 31.4 30.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.5 30.7 28.9 Other Income EBITDA margin (%) 2,517 -427 6,729 6,990 8,151 5,659 6,295 5,775 15,891 25,880 Depreciation 2,905 3,095 3,519 3,724 5,521 4,145 4,290 4,281 13,243 18,237 PBT 51,144 62,868 70,076 69,800 66,300 69,601 72,536 74,655 Provision for Tax 12,312 15,563 16,524 16,313 15,312 16,045 17,453 17,171 60,712 Tax rate (%) 24.1 24.8 23.6 23.4 23.1 23.1 24.1 23.0 23.9 23.3 Minority Interest 870 287 412 520 410 673 642 642 2,089 2,367 PAT 253,970 283,092 65,981 37,962 47,018 53,140 52,967 50,578 52,883 54,441 56,842 q-q change % 5.5 23.9 13.0 -0.3 -4.5 4.6 2.9 4.4 191,169 214,744 37.1 12.3 Diluted EPS (INR) 19.4 24.0 27.2 27.1 25.8 27.0 27.8 29.0 97.7 109.7 Source: Company data, Nomura estimates 5 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 Appendix A-1 Analyst Certification We, Ashwin Mehta and Pinku Pappan, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company. Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may refer to one or more Nomura Group companies. Materially mentioned issuers Issuer Cognizant HCL Technologies Infosys Tata Consultancy Services Ticker CTSH US HCLT IN INFO IN Price USD 54.41 INR 1593 INR 2134 Price date 14-Jan-2015 15-Jan-2015 15-Jan-2015 TCS IN INR 2539 15-Jan-2015 Buy Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Stock rating Buy Buy Buy Sector rating Disclosures N/A N/A N/A N/A INR 2539 (15-Jan-2015) Buy (Sector rating: N/A) Rating and target price chart (three year history) Date 18-Oct-14 18-Jul-14 17-Apr-14 17-Jan-14 16-Oct-13 04-Oct-13 04-Oct-13 14-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 24-May-13 24-May-13 18-Apr-13 28-Mar-13 15-Jan-13 22-Oct-12 28-May-12 11-Apr-12 18-Jan-12 Rating Target price 2,760.00 2,700.00 2,570.00 2,600.00 2,440.00 Buy 2,330.00 Neutral 1,970.00 Reduce 1,360.00 1,540.00 1,560.00 1,470.00 1,380.00 1,300.00 1,260.00 1,200.00 Closing price 2,441.15 2,403.728 2,188.778 2,179.08 2,181.394 2,002.384 2,002.384 1,805.356 1,805.356 1,446.992 1,446.992 1,430.45 1,551.562 1,316.92 1,298.655 1,205.901 1,120.63 1,059.631 For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology Our TP of INR2,800 is based on 20x one-year forward EPS (up to Dec-16) of INR140. The 20x multiple is at the higher end of TCS' historical valuation range; we expect this to sustain on higher predictability of growth/margins and better positioning to benefit from the demand upturn. The benchmark index for this stock is the MSCI India. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Downside risks are slower-than-anticipated growth and INR appreciation. 6 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services Cognizant (CTSH US) 16 January 2015 USD 54.41 (14-Jan-2015) Buy (Sector rating: N/A) Rating and target price chart (three year history) Date 16-Dec-14 06-Nov-14 16-Sep-14 07-Aug-14 12-Mar-14 06-Feb-14 11-Dec-13 06-Nov-13 04-Oct-13 07-Aug-13 24-May-13 09-May-13 25-Mar-13 08-Nov-12 04-Jul-12 09-May-12 08-Feb-12 Rating Target price 63.00 60.00 56.00 53.00 56.00 54.00 53.00 50.50 48.50 45.50 39.00 41.50 44.50 40.00 37.50 38.50 41.50 Closing price 51.21 52.64 44.98 44.38 51.59 47.745 46.75 45.34 42.425 36.905 31.885 34.225 37.195 32.64 29.875 30.295 35.375 For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology Our TP of USD63 is based on 19x FY16F EPS of USD3.29. Our target P/E multiple is a 5% discount to our valuation multiple for TCS. The benchmark index for this stock is MSCI India. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks include: 1) any disruption in global macro; 2) integration risks associated with the Trizetto acquisition. HCL Technologies (HCLT IN) INR 1593 (15-Jan-2015) Buy (Sector rating: N/A) Rating and target price chart (three year history) Date 16-Dec-14 18-Oct-14 31-Jul-14 18-Apr-14 17-Jan-14 17-Oct-13 04-Oct-13 01-Aug-13 24-May-13 18-Apr-13 28-Mar-13 18-Jan-13 10-Dec-12 17-Oct-12 26-Jul-12 18-Apr-12 11-Apr-12 Rating Target price 1,950.00 1,900.00 1,850.00 1,730.00 1,700.00 1,400.00 1,280.00 1,120.00 875.00 910.00 900.00 850.00 750.00 700.00 630.00 600.00 580.00 Closing price 1,558.90 1,505.50 1,543.095 1,413.751 1,368.999 1,074.689 1,088.333 923.515 731.856 730.566 788.863 700.202 616.553 576.068 507.799 490.484 486.217 For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology Our target price of INR1,950 is based on 16x FY16F EPS of INR122, which is a ~25% premium to the stock’s five-year average, given: 1) better EPS growth and margin trajectory; and 2) improving cash generation and return profile. The benchmark index for this stock is MSCI India. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks include: 1) any disruption in global macro; 2) material margin disruption; and 3) INR appreciation against the USD. 7 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services Infosys (INFO IN) 16 January 2015 INR 2134 (15-Jan-2015) Buy (Sector rating: N/A) Rating and target price chart (three year history) Date 03-Dec-14 11-Oct-14 14-Jul-14 13-Mar-14 11-Jan-14 11-Oct-13 04-Oct-13 14-Aug-13 14-Aug-13 15-Jul-13 24-May-13 24-May-13 28-Mar-13 14-Jan-13 15-Oct-12 13-Jul-12 04-Jul-12 17-Apr-12 17-Apr-12 11-Apr-12 Rating Target price 2,220.00 4,300.00 3,790.00 3,770.00 4,020.00 3,760.00 3,640.00 Buy 3,530.00 2,500.00 Reduce 2,120.00 3,020.00 2,900.00 2,300.00 2,260.00 2,580.00 Neutral 2,550.00 3,350.00 Closing price 2,123.50 1,944.325 1,612.625 1,678.80 1,775.625 1,637.25 1,508.20 1,534.825 1,534.825 1,371.35 1,173.95 1,173.95 1,444.675 1,403.25 1,182.80 1,114.90 1,239.70 1,190.35 1,190.35 1,402.20 For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s) Valuation Methodology Our target price of INR2,220 is based on 17x one-year-forward EPS of INR130.3, which is in line with its historical average valuations. The benchmark index for this stock is the MSCI India. Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Slower-than-anticipated demand pick-up, INR appreciation, higher-than-anticipated pricing pressure in commoditized services and the re-emergence of risks from the US immigration bill remain key risks to our recommendation. Important Disclosures Online availability of research and conflict-of-interest disclosures Nomura research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, MarkitHub, Reuters and ThomsonOne. Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc., on 1-877-865-5752. If you have any difficulties with the website, please email [email protected] for help. 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Distribution of ratings (Global) The distribution of all ratings published by Nomura Global Equity Research is as follows: 49% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 43% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 43% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 54% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 8% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 26% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 31 December 2014. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America, and Japan and Asia ex-Japan from 21 October 2013 The rating system is a relative system, indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock, subject to limited management discretion. An analyst’s target price is an assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock based on an appropriate valuation methodology determined by the analyst. Valuation methodologies include, but are not limited to, discounted cash flow 8 Nomura | Tata Consultancy Services 16 January 2015 analysis, expected return on equity and multiple analysis. Analysts may also indicate expected absolute upside/downside relative to the stated target price, defined as (target price - current price)/current price. STOCKS A rating of 'Buy', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Neutral', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Reduce', indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of 'Suspended', indicates that the rating, target price and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe/Asia exJapan: please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks, which can be accessed at: http://go.nomuranow.com/research/globalresearchportal/pages/disclosures/disclosures.aspx; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology; Japan: Russell/Nomura Large Cap. SECTORS A 'Bullish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Neutral' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A 'Bearish' stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Sectors that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'N/A' are not assigned ratings. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia. Japan/Asia ex-Japan: Sector ratings are not assigned. Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan and Asia ex-Japan prior to 21 October 2013 STOCKS Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Target Price - Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Target Price will equal the analyst's 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A 'Buy' recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A 'Neutral' recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A 'Reduce' recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of 'Suspended' indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as 'Not rated' or shown as 'No rating' are not in regular research coverage of the Nomura entity identified in the top banner. Investors should not expect continuing or additional information from Nomura relating to such securities and/or companies. SECTORS A 'Bullish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A 'Neutral' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A 'Bearish' rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation. Target Price A Target Price, if discussed, reflects in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any target price may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates. Disclaimers This document contains material that has been prepared by the Nomura entity identified on page 1 and/or with the sole or joint contributions of one or more Nomura entities whose employees and their respective affiliations are also specified on page 1 or identified elsewhere in the document. The term "Nomura Group" used herein refers to Nomura Holdings, Inc. or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries and may refer to one or more Nomura Group companies including: Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. ('NSC') Tokyo, Japan; Nomura International plc ('NIplc'), UK; Nomura Securities International, Inc. ('NSI'), New York, US; Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. (‘NIHK’), Hong Kong; Nomura Financial Investment (Korea) Co., Ltd. (‘NFIK’), Korea (Information on Nomura analysts registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association ('KOFIA') can be found on the KOFIA Intranet at http://dis.kofia.or.kr); Nomura Singapore Ltd. (‘NSL’), Singapore (Registration number 197201440E, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore); Nomura Australia Ltd. (‘NAL’), Australia (ABN 48 003 032 513), regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission ('ASIC') and holder of an Australian financial services licence number 246412; P.T. Nomura Indonesia (‘PTNI’), Indonesia; Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. (‘NSM’), Malaysia; NIHK, Taipei Branch (‘NITB’), Taiwan; Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited (‘NFASL’), Mumbai, India (Registered Address: Ceejay House, Level 11, Plot F, Shivsagar Estate, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai- 400 018, India; Tel: +91 22 4037 4037, Fax: +91 22 4037 4111; CIN No : U74140MH2007PTC169116, SEBI Registration No: BSE INB011299030, NSE INB231299034, INF231299034, INE 231299034, MCX: INE261299034) and NIplc, Madrid Branch (‘NIplc, Madrid’). ‘CNS Thailand’ next to an analyst’s name on the front page of a research report indicates that the analyst is employed by Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited (‘CNS’) to provide research assistance services to NSL under a Research Assistance Agreement. ‘NSFSPL’ next to an employee’s name on the front page of a research report indicates that the individual is employed by Nomura Structured Finance Services Private Limited to provide assistance to certain Nomura entities under inter-company agreements. 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