Treasury Advisory Corporate FX & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Interest Rate Derivatives Tel: 6349-1899 Investments & Structured Products Tel: 6349-1886 GT Institutional Sales Tel: 6349-1810 Global ECB S’pore China Hong Kong OCBC Wing Hang Iris Pang +852 2852-5289 [email protected] Timothy Sham +852 2852-5791 [email protected] Korea OCBC Credit Research Lee Chok Wai +65 6722-2215 [email protected] Highlights Commodities DAILY TREASURY OUTLOOK Treasury Research Selena Ling +65 6530-4887 [email protected] Emmanuel Ng +65 6530-4073 [email protected] Wellian Wiranto +65 6530-5949 [email protected] Tommy Xie Dongming +65 6530-7256 [email protected] Barnabas Gan +65 6530-1778 [email protected] Friday, January 23, 2015 ECB gave global markets a risk-on shot, announcing QE amounting to EUR60b per month at least until Sep 2016, amounting to over EUR1.1tn, till inflation is back to its 2% target. It was clear that financial markets were pleased, with EUR taking another leg lower. The ECB also cut the financing cost of TLTRO by 10bps, adding to the string of central banks that had announced surprise cuts in the past week (namely Denmark, Turkey, India, Canada and Peru). With the ECB’s new QE ammunition, market players may be emboldened in their global search for yield to drive equities and gold higher, government and likely corporate bond yields lower, and lift German asset prices even higher since Germany will dominate the bulk of the QE program. For today, Asian markets are likely to cheer the ECB’s QE present and await the slew of manufacturing PMIs from US/EZ/China. The passing of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah also saw oil futures trade higher. The finer technical details include capping QE at 25% per issue volume and 33% per issuer, risk-sharing with national central banks (80%), and excluding Greek bonds till July (a rather smart political move) when redemptions of SMP bonds held by ECB would not exceed the 33% issuer limit. The EUR60bn also likely comprises EUR45bn of sovereign bond purchases, with EUR5bn bonds issued by European institutions and agencies, and EUR10bn under existing ABS and covered bonds for tenors between 2-30 years. Subzero bond yields will not be excluded, but purchases will be proportionate to their capital keys (ie. Germany 25.6%). JTC Corp has introduced new industrial price and rental indices from the previous 6 to 24, including single-user factory space as well as sub-indices for multiple-user factories, business parks and warehouses island wide. This follows the Fair Tenancy Framework launch on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Dec CPI likely saw its second straight month of negative print at -0.1% yoy (-0.1% mom sa), amid the oil price slump, with core CPI at 1.6% yoy (close to the 21-month low of 1.5% seen in Nov 2014). China’s currency regulator said yesterday the supply and demand for foreign currencies remains fairly balanced in 2014. There is no sign of panic hoarding of US dollar. The SAFE expects RMB assets to stay attractive to foreign investors in the medium term due to China’s relatively higher interest rates. Headline CPI inflation eased to 4.9% yoy in December from 5.1% yoy in November. Underlying CPI inflation also slowed to 3.1% yoy from 3.3% yoy for the same period. The Korean economy expanded 0.4% qoq sa (+2.7% yoy) in 4Q14, marking a slowdown from the 3Q print of +0.9% qoq sa (+3.2% yoy). Crude oil prices remained under-water, with WTI and Brent sinking to $46.31/bbl (-3.1%) and $48.52/bbl (-1.04%) at closing yesterday on swelling US oil inventories. Meanwhile, gold investors disregarded the dollar strength, owing from the weakening Euro after ECB’s QE announcement, and led the yellow metal higher to $1,300.7/oz (+0.54%). 23 January 2015 Daily Treasury Outlook Major Market Wall Street rallied for the fourth day amid the ECB’ QE present and better-than-expected earnings from banks and transportation companies: Dow +1.48%, S&P500 +1.53% (erasing its loss for the year) and Nasdaq +1.78%. Gainers included KeyCorp, Southwest Airlines Co, Union Pacific Corp, and EBay Inc. VIX -13.00% to 16.40 (lowest this year). US Treasury bond markets slipped as anticipation of ECB stimulus lent a risk-on tone to equities: The 2- and 10-year bond yields were at 0.52% and 1.86% (-1bp) respectively. The Treasury will auction US$26bn 2-year notes, US$35bn 5-year notes and US$29bn 7-year notes from 27 Jan. Note German 2-year note yields saw a record low of 0.182%, with Spanish 10-year yield also at a record 1.397% and Italy’s 10-year at 1.556% (low since at least 1993), on the back of the ECB announcement. Singapore: STI added 0.47% to close at 3370.29 yesterday, and may attempt to extend gains this morning given the upside surprise from the ECB announcement and strong overnight increase in Wall Street and morning rallies in Nikkei and Kospi, albeit some profit-taking may emerge ahead of the weekend. STI range is tipped at 3360-3400 for today. SGS bond, particularly the longer-dated ones, will likely benefit from the ECB’s QE halo effect, and see yields dip around 2-4bps in sympathy. Hong Kong: The slowdown in CPI inflation in the month was mainly attributed to an accelerated drop in fuel and clothing prices. Looking forward, we expect inflation pressures in HK would ease gradually in the coming months on the back of lower fuel prices and slower domestic growth weighed down by the weak retail sector. Upward pressure would mainly come from rising private residential rental growth. Thailand: The parliament is to decide on impeachment charges against former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra today, a move that may land her a maximum of 10-years imprisonment and ban her from politics for 5 years. Commodities: Crude oil futures remained under water, with WTI and Brent sinking to $46.31/bbl (3.1%) and $48.52/bbl (-1.04%) at closing yesterday. The fall is largely triggered by swelling US oil inventories, with US crude oil stocks rising way above expectations at 10.1 million barrels (vs mkt est: +2.7 million barrels ) for the week ended Jan 16. Meanwhile, US oil refinery utilisations operated at 85.5% (-5.5%) over the same period of time, as units were reportedly closed for maintenance. Economic Data Releases Key economic data releases: US’ initial jobless claims fell 10k to 307k, while continuing claims came in at 2.443m, suggesting labour market conditions remain robust. Meanwhile, the FHFA house price index surged from a revised 0.4% in Oct to 0.8% mom in Nov, raising hopes that a more sustainable housing recovery is underway. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence improved to -8.5 in Jan as consumers welcomed lower inflation. Key economic data due today: US’ Dec existing home sales and Chicago Fed national activity; Canada’s CPI and retail sales; UK’s retail sales; Taiwan’s Dec industrial production; and Singapore’s CPI. Treasury Research & Strategy 2 23 January 2015 Daily Treasury Outlook Bond Market Updates Market Commentary: Yesterday, the SGD swap rates traded 1bps-7bps higher across the curve, with the exception of 1-year rate that dropped 1bps. The SGD corporate space was active with better buyers of GRCHAR 6% ’17, IOCLIN 4.1% ’22, HYFSP 4.8% perp-c16, GALVSP 5.9% ’17, YLLGSP 6.2% ’17 and HYFSP 5.75% perp-c17. Meanwhile, we also saw better sellers of CHEUNG 5.125% perp-c16, OLAMSP 4.25% ‘19 and mixed interest in BIGSP 4.875% ’17 and EZISP 4.875% ’21. New Issues: Haitong International Securities Group Ltd priced a US$700mn 5.5-yr issue at CT5+310bps. International Container Terminal Services Inc is planning a US$ perp-nc4.25 issue, with a final price guidance of 6.5%. Rating Changes: Fitch downgraded Anton Oilfield Services Group’s long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating to “BB-” from “BB”, with a negative outlook. Treasury Research & Strategy 3 23 January 2015 Daily Treasury Outlook Key Financial Indicators Foreign Exchange Day Close % Change DXY 94.077 1.26% USD-JPY 118.490 0.44% EUR-USD 1.1366 -2.10% AUD-USD 0.8026 -0.73% GBP-USD 1.5010 -0.87% USD-MYR 3.6017 -0.43% USD-CNY 6.2090 -0.05% USD-IDR 12487 0.05% USD-VND 21360 -0.09% USD-SGD EUR-SGD JPY-SGD GBP-SGD AUD-SGD NZD-SGD CHF-SGD SGD-MYR SGD-CNY Day Close % Change 1.3394 0.34% 1.5223 -1.77% 1.1304 -0.12% 2.0106 -0.55% 1.0751 -0.38% 1.0050 -0.31% 1.5374 -0.90% 2.7018 -0.20% 4.6360 -0.32% Equity and Commodity Index Value DJIA 17,813.98 S&P 2,063.15 Nasdaq 4,750.40 Nikkei 225 17,329.02 STI 3,370.29 KLCI 1,781.75 JCI 5,253.18 Baltic Dry 751.00 VIX 16.40 Interbank Offer Rates (%) Tenor EURIBOR 1M -0.0040 2M 0.0220 3M 0.0550 6M 0.1410 9M 0.2130 12M 0.2830 Change ------- Tenor O/N 1M 2M 3M 6M 12M USD Libor 0.1214 0.1668 0.2158 0.2571 0.3589 0.6219 Government Bond Yields (%) Tenor SGS (chg) UST (chg) 2Y 0.61 (+0.01) 0.52 (+0.01) 5Y 1.39 (+0.05) 1.36 (+0.01) 10Y 1.96 (+0.07) 1.86 (-0.01) 15Y 2.34 (+0.08) -20Y 2.43 (+0.08) -30Y 2.54 (+0.08) 2.44 (-0.02) Singapore Rates (%) Tenor SOR Fixing 1D 0.1319 1M 0.4264 3M 0.5140 6M 0.6094 Change 0.0687 -0.0072 0.0104 -0.0178 Tenor 1M 3M 6M 12M Change ------- Financial Spread (bps) Value LIBOR-OIS 13.11 EURIBOR-OIS 11.00 TED 24.09 SGD SIBOR Change 0.5733 -0.0021 0.6387 -0.7009 0.0021 0.8221 -0.0012 Net change 259.70 31.00 83.00 48.50 15.80 11.70 37.90 -19.00 -2.50 Change -0.16 0.50 0.41 Eurozone & Russia Update 2Y Bond Ylds (bpschg) 10Y Bond Ylds (bpschg) Portugal Italy Ireland Greece* Spain Russia* 0.29 0.31 0.07 10.34 0.26 6.70 -9.20 -7.30 0.00 -74.90 -7.10 -17.90 2.59 1.55 1.15 8.97 1.41 5.08 -18.40 -14.20 -10.00 -39.70 -12.50 0.00 10Y Bund Spread % 2.14 1.10 0.70 8.52 0.96 4.63 CDS 169.52 107.43 49.88 452.30 79.94 561.54 CDS Change -12.49 -9.97 0.10 --5.37 -14.25 Equity Index 2323.84 20469.74 5461.97 791.80 10510.60 1666.56 % Change 1.80 2.44 1.33 1.14 1.70 48.39 * Shows 3-year bond yields rather than 2-year Commodities Futures Energy WTI (per barrel) Brent (per barrel) Heating Oil (per gallon) Gasoline (per gallon) Natural Gas (per MMBtu) Futures 46.31 48.52 1.638 1.33 2.835 -3.08% -1.04% -0.52% 0.40% -4.67% Soft Commodities Coffee (per lb) Cotton (per lb) Sugar (per lb) Orange Juice (per lb) Cocoa (per mt) Futures 1.600 0.5776 0.1591 1.4695 2,801 % chg -0.81% -0.43% -0.06% 0.14% -1.79% Base Metals Copper (per mt) Nickel (per mt) Aluminium (per mt) Futures 5,665.0 14,809 1,859.0 % chg -1.84% -1.21% -0.47% Grains Wheat (per bushel) Soybean (per bushel) Corn (per bushel) Futures 5.3375 9.768 3.8375 % chg -0.56% -0.69% -1.10% Precious Metals Gold (per oz) Silver (per oz) Futures 1,300.7 18.346 % chg 0.54% 0.92% Asian Commodities Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT) Rubber (JPY/KG) Futures 2,272.0 188.2 % chg -0.83% 1.73% Source: Bloomberg, Reuters (Note that rates are for reference only) Treasury Research & Strategy 4 23 January 2015 Daily Treasury Outlook Key Economic Indicators Date 22/01/2015 05:30 22/01/2015 07:50 22/01/2015 07:50 22/01/2015 07:50 22/01/2015 08:00 22/01/2015 08:30 22/01/2015 16:30 22/01/2015 17:00 22/01/2015 17:00 22/01/2015 17:00 22/01/2015 17:00 22/01/2015 17:30 22/01/2015 17:30 22/01/2015 17:30 22/01/2015 18:00 22/01/2015 18:00 22/01/2015 18:00 22/01/2015 20:45 22/01/2015 20:45 22/01/2015 20:45 22/01/2015 21:30 22/01/2015 21:30 22/01/2015 22:00 22/01/2015 22:45 22/01/2015 22:45 22/01/2015 23:00 23/01/2015 07:00 23/01/2015 07:00 23/01/2015 09:35 23/01/2015 09:45 23/01/2015 13:00 23/01/2015 13:00 23/01/2015 15:30 23/01/2015 15:30 23/01/2015 15:45 23/01/2015 15:45 23/01/2015 15:45 23/01/2015 16:00 23/01/2015 16:00 23/01/2015 16:00 23/01/2015 16:00 23/01/2015 16:30 23/01/2015 16:30 23/01/2015 16:30 23/01/2015 17:00 23/01/2015 17:00 23/01/2015 17:00 23/01/2015 17:30 23/01/2015 17:30 23/01/2015 17:30 23/01/2015 17:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 21:30 23/01/2015 22:45 23/01/2015 23:00 23/01/2015 23:00 23/01/2015 23:00 23/01/2015 NZ JN JN JN AU TA HK IT IT IT IT UK UK UK MA IT IT EC EC EC US US US US US EC Event BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Foreign Buying Japan Stocks HIA New Home Sales MoM Unemployment Rate CPI Composite YoY Industrial Orders MoM Industrial Orders NSA YoY Industrial Sales MoM Industrial Sales WDA YoY Public Finances (PSNCR) Public Sector Net Borrowing PSNB ex Banking Groups Foreign Reserves Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales YoY ECB Main Refinancing Rate ECB Deposit Facility Rate ECB Marginal Lending Facility Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims FHFA House Price Index MoM Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Bloomberg Economic Expectations Consumer Confidence Dec 16-Jan 16-Jan 16-Jan Nov Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec 15-Jan Nov Nov 22-Jan 22-Jan 22-Jan 17-Jan 10-Jan Nov 18-Jan Jan Jan A Survey -----3.87% 4.60% 0.40% -0.60% ---9.0B 9.7B -0.10% -0.90% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% 300K 2400K 0.30% ---10.5 Actual 57.7 -¥397.2B -¥233.7B -¥577.4B 2.20% 3.84% 4.90% -1.10% -4.10% -0.60% -1.60% 21.4B 12.5B 13.1B $111.2B 0.10% -2.30% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% 307K 2443K 0.80% 44.7 53 -8.5 Prior 55.2 ¥455.1B -¥121.3B -¥684.4B 3.00% 3.87% 5.10% 0.10% -0.20% 0.40% -0.70% 6.7B 13.4B 14.1B $116.0B 0.00% -0.80% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% 316K 2424K 0.60% 45.4 51 -10.9 Revised 55.6 ¥464.6B -¥128.7B -¥679.9B -----0.30% -7.1B 11.7B 12.4B ---1.00% ---317K 2428K 0.40% ---- SK SK JN CH SI SI TH TH FR FR FR TA FR FR FR GE GE GE EC EC EC UK UK UK UK US CA CA CA CA CA CA US US US US MU GDP SA QoQ GDP YoY Markit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY Forward Contracts Foreign Reserves Own-Company Production Outlook Production Outlook Indicator Manufacturing Confidence Industrial Production YoY Markit France Manufacturing PMI Markit France Services PMI Markit France Composite PMI Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI Markit Germany Services PMI Markit/BME Germany Cpste PMI Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI Markit Eurozone Services PMI Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY CPI Core MoM CPI Core YoY Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Markit US Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales MoM Leading Index Visitor Arrivals 4Q P 4Q P Jan P Jan P Dec Dec 16-Jan 16-Jan Jan Jan Jan Dec Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Jan P Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Jan P Dec Dec Dec Dec 0.40% 2.80% -49.5 -0.20% -0.10% ----99 4.68% 48 50.8 50.1 51.7 52.5 52.4 51 52 51.7 -0.70% 3.40% -0.60% 3.00% 0.48 -0.60% 1.60% -0.30% 2.30% -0.20% 0.10% 54 5.08M 3.00% 0.40% -- 0.40% 2.70% ------------------------------------ 0.90% 3.20% 52 49.6 0.30% -0.30% $23.0B $156.6B 4 -16 99 6.86% 47.5 50.6 49.7 51.2 52.1 52 50.6 51.6 51.4 1.70% 6.90% 1.60% 6.40% 0.73 -0.40% 2.00% -0.20% 2.10% 0.00% 0.20% 53.9 4.93M -6.10% 0.60% 2802T -------------------------0.92 ------------ Source: Bloomberg Treasury Research & Strategy 5 23 January 2015 Daily Treasury Outlook This publication is solely for information purposes only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our prior written consent. 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