Loeng 2. Kaubanduse liberaliseerimine, Euroopa kaubanduspoliitika ja WTO • Esimene senini tegutsev rahvusvaheline organisatsioon Reini jõe Kesknavigatsioonikomisjon 1815. a. • Rahvusvaheline Kaubanduskoda (ICC)1920 Pariis • Üldine tolli- ja kaubanduskokkulepe (GATT) 1948, Genf • ÜRO Kaubandus- ja Arengukonverents (UNCTAD) 1962, New York (77 arenguriiki) • Rahvusvaheline Kaubanduskeskus (ITC), asut GATT poolt 1964 a. Genfis • UNCTAD ja ITC ühine püsitegevus Genfis 1968 • WTO 1995, (Eesti 1999, 13. nov.) GATT/WTO läbirääkimised • • • • • • • • • Genf, 1947 (tariifid, 23 riiki) Annecy, 1949 (tariifid, 13 riiki) Torquay, 1951 (tariifid, 38 riiki) Genf, 1956 (tariifid, 26 riiki) Dillon, 1960-61 (tariifid, 26 riiki) Kennedy, 1964-67 (tar., anti-dumping, 62) Tokyo, 1973-79 (tar., mittetollil.p., 102) Uruguay, 1986-94 (tar., teen.,int.o., 123) Doha, 2001-.... (tar., teen., int.o., 153 (+30) GATT ja WTO erinevused • Üldine tolli- ja kaubanduskokkulepe → Maailma Kaubandusorganisatsioon; • ajutine → alaline; • kaubad → kaubad, teenused ja intellektuaalne omand; • vabatahtlik → kohustuslik WTO Uruguay voor • Lõppes WTO moodustamisega • Kehtestati vaidluste lahendamise kord • Kujundati kaubanduspoliitika väljatöötamise mehhanism • Eraldi lepingud: – GATT – GATS (teenused) – TRIPS (intel.omand) WTO tegevuse põhimõtted • Enamsoodustusreegel (MFN) -mittediskrimineerimine liikmete vahel -erandid • Võrdne kohtlemine (mittediskrimineerimine omaja välismaise kauba vahel • Läbipaistvus (kohustuste sidumine ja piirangute selgus turulepääsu tingimuste, subsiidiumide jms. osas, regulaarne teavitamine kaubandustingimuste ja poliitikate muutmise kohta WTO läbirääkimised • Mitmepoolsed läbirääkimised seadusandluse ja poliitikate kooskõlastamiseks • Kahepoolsed läbirääkimised üksikute riikidega vaid vastastikku huvi pakkuvates küsimustes (tollilaed, kodumaine toetus, ekspordisubsiidiumid, teenuste turulepääs jms.) WTO laienemine • Liikmeks saamise tingimused: – Ühinemisprotokolli heakskiitmine – Kahepoolsed läbirääkimised kõigiga lõpetatud – Siseriiklikud protseduurid läbi viidud Hetkel liitumisläbirääkimised kestavad Venemaa, Ukraina, Valgevene jt. riikidega WTO Ministrite Konverentsid • • • • • • • • Singapur 1996 Genf 1998 Seattle 1999 Doha (Katar) 2001 uued läbirääkimised Cancun (Mehhiko) 2003 Hong Kong 2005, 2007 korraline MC jäi ära, Doha läbikukkumine Genf 2009 Doha vooru probleemid • • • • • • • • Põllumajandussaaduste turulepääs Teenuste turulepääs (WTO reeglid) Kaubanduse mõju keskkonnale Riigihangete läbipaistvus Kaubanduse lihtsustamine E- kaubandus Arengumaade (eelistamise) probleemid Alkoholi geogr.tähistuse kaitse ja rahvatervise kaitse TRIPS raames WTO 2006-2011 • The Hong Kong MC -- What needed to be done? -- Proposals on agriculture (US, EU, G20, G10) -- The MC: averts collapse, but a successful event? -- A runt of a package: all major market-access decisions postponed; leaving LDC market access, aid-for-trade, TRIPS-and-public health, deadline for elimination of ag export subsidies -- What should have been done post-HK: simultaneous movement by DC and developing-country majors on Ag., NAMA and GATS.; rules; development. What about G90? -- 2006 deadlines missed; round suspended indefinitely WTO Doha Development Agenda (DDA) 2. Agriculture in the DDA • HK MC:  Export subsidies abolished by 2013 (parallel moves on export credits, food aid and STEs)  Domestic support: three bands, but no figures or disciplines on boxes  Market access: four bands but no figures; SSM; no specifics on sensitive and special products  Cotton: abolition of export subsidies and full market access for LDCs, but no agreement on domestic support  Related issues: GIs, trade-and-environment, implementation, S&D WTO DDA What needs to be done?  Export subsidies  Domestic support: size of cuts in bands; de minimis support; blue box/green box disciplines; S&D  Market access: size of cuts in bands; tariff caps; sensitive and special products; WTO DDA • World Bank estimates:  Ag. liberalisation 2/3rds of overall gain from goods liberalisation  93% of ag. liberalisation gain from market access  >50% of developing countries’ gain from own liberalisation  Significant gains require huge cuts in bound tariffs; must include developing countries; narrow limits on sensitive and special products  Large developing countries gain; some LDCs lose slightly (can be compensated, e.g. for preference erosion) Table 1. Effects on developing country economic welfare of full trade liberalization by groups of countries and products, 2015 (%) From full liberalization of: Other manufacturers All goods and food Textiles and clothing 30 17 50 33 63 10 27 3 7 10 Agriculture Percentage due to: Developed country policies Developing countries’ policies All countries’ policies 50 100 Note: Developed countries include the transition economies that joined the European Union in April 2004. The definition of developing countries used here is that adopted by the WTO. Thus it includes the four East Asian tigers: Hong King (China), Korea, Rep., Singapore and Taiwan (China). Source: Anderson and Martin (2005, Table 4) WTO DDA DDA prospects: three scenarios  Scenario One: collapse  Scenario Two: a very modest package … but will it get through US Congress?  Scenario Three: a substantial package … unlikely without a global crisis  UN-isation: WTO drifting away from nondiscrimination and market access towards an aid agency?  Is a modest result really better than collapse? WTO DDA • Systemic challenges for the WTO -- From GATT to WTO: wider and deeper agenda; legalisation; hyperinflation of membership; politicisation -- Result: loss of focus; loss of effective decision-making (UN-isation) -- Need to have manageable agenda and effective decision-making -- G5/G50 have to lead, others to follow; WTO should remain intergovernmental -- The bottom line: market access; rules for a market economy WTO DDA • Future of the WTO -- High, middling or low ambition? -- Instrument of global governance? Or limits to future WTOstyle multilateralism? -- What role for the EU? FTAS POLICY ENVIRONMENT: FTAs -- WTO and FTAs: shift of attention -- Credits: market access; rules; no S&D; no NGOs; business engaged; no UNstyle circus -- Debits: sectoral carve outs, discrimination and red tape (esp. rules of origin); power plays, not balanced rules; lop-sided, distorted, insubstantial liberalisation -- Often the reality: all politics, little economics; lack of strategy and focus; barely WTO-compatible or WTO-plus; divert resources/attention from unilateral/multilateral liberalisation -- Lessons from Asia-Pacific: China, India, Japan, ASEAN, Korea, USA -- Skewed geography: poor and weak developing countries get squeezed -- Competitive liberalisation or threat to multilateral trading system? FTAS • EU and FTAs -- Asia (India, ASEAN, China) -- EPAs -- TAFTA? WTO DDA/FTAs WIDER POLICY ENVIRONMENT • FTAs and their limits • Diminishing returns to trade negotiations • The silver lining: unilateral liberalisation -- China in the lead • But leaves gaps, e.g. agriculture and rules • Multilateralism, incl. WTO, has a place, but must be modest and realistic if it is to work WTO DDA/FTAs • Post-Doha priorities -- WTO enlargement -- FTAs in Asia -- Unilateral liberalisation: China, India and constructive engagement