The impact of the thermal power industries from the BeijingTianjin-Hebei regions on Beijing haze studied by the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model (Preliminary results) Shaocai Yu1, Qingyu Zhang1, Renchang Yan1, Pengfei Li1, Bixin Chen1, Yanqun Li1, Weiping Liu1, David Wong2, Kiran Alapaty2, Jon Pleim2 and Rohit Mathur2 1 Research Center for Air Pollution and Health, College of Environmental and Natural Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, P.R. China. 2Atmospheric USA Modeling and Analysis Division, NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711, Introduction (Motivation) Air pollution and heavy haze have become China’s biggest environmental problem Hazy days in 2012: 103-225 day Xian Taiyuan Beijing Tianjin Chengdu Chongqing Nanjing 2012 Shanghai Nanchang Guangzhou Fuzhou Number of haze days in 2013 are the biggest since 1960 Wenzhou Introduction (Motivation) Air pollution and heavy haze have become China’s biggest environmental problem AQI on 10/24/2014, 8:00, major pollutant is PM2.5 Beijing-TianjinHebei (BTH) regions Superior (green), good (yellow), slight（Orange), moderate (red), severe (purple), serious (maroon) Objectives  Study the impact of the thermal power industries from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions on Beijing haze formation by the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model. Evaluations of model performance on PM2.5, PM10, O3, SO2, NO2, CO, AQI and aerosol optical depth (AOD) by comparing with surface and satellite observation over the eastern China. Model Description (Configuration) WRF, CMAQ models  Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model  Most popular meteorological model (V3.4)  U.S. EPA CMAQ: (public release) most popular air quality CTM model (V5.0)  Aerosol indirect effects on grid-scale clouds have been implemented in the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model:  “Aerosol indirect effect on the grid-scale clouds in the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ: model description, development, evaluation and regional analysis” by Yu et al., (2014) Model Description (Configuration) Two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling System (Interaction and feedback) (Yu et al., 2014) Meteorological Model WRF modeling System: x=36, 12 km, 4km 29 layers Land-Surface: PX LSM PBL: ACM2 Cloud Physics: Morrison Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch, not for 4km Shortwave: RRTMg, or CAM Longwave: RRTMg, or CAM AQPREP Prepares virtual CMAQ compatible input met. files Chemical Transport Model CMAQ Modeling System: Photochemistry: CB05 59 organic and inorganic species, 156 chemical reactions Coupler CMAQ-mixactivate: cloud drop, ice number conc. Direct forcing: Aerosol size, composition, conc. Aerosol module: AE6 3 lognormal modes, organic and inorganic Emission: SMOKE In-line emission for biogenic species Model Description (Configuration)  China WRF-CMAQ simulations and emissions  WPS runs: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis  Surface analysis nudging:  NCEP ADP Operational Global Surface Obs  Emissions over the eastern Asia:  Anthropogenic: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): HTAP V2 (0.10*0.10)  Biogenic VOC: GEIA (Global Emission Inventory Activity) Observations  National Surface Observation network  PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3  Satellite observations  CERES data: • COD, cloud fraction, cloud and ice effective radius  MODIS, MISR, CALIOP data: • AOD, LWC, cloud effective radius, COD, ice particle size Model domain 36 km domain over eastern Asia 12 km domain over eastern China 4 km domain over BTH region Simulation period: 2013 Results (Preliminary) PMfine, CO and SO2, and NO2missions over the domain SO2 PMfine CO NO2 Results (Preliminary) Model simulation results over the domain (1/2/2013) PM2.5 CO SO2 NOx Results (Preliminary) Observations of PM2.5 in Beijing PM2.5 observations at 10 sites in Beijing: 1/20/2013-5/27/2014 Weekly heavy haze: 2/20-2/27/2014 -3 (g m ) PM 2.5 Results (Preliminary) Observations of PM2.5 in Beijing PM2.5 800 PM10 PM 600 400 200 200 SO2 2 -3 SO (g m ) 0 250 150 100 50 0 12 -3 CO (mg m ) 10 CO 8 6 4 2 0 300 2 -3 NO (g m ) 250 NO2 200 150 100 50 0 100 3 -3 O (g m ) Weekly heavy haze: 2/20-2/27/2014 10 -3 (g m ) Study period: 2/8-2/27/2014 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1000 O3 80 60 40 20 0 Feb/8 Feb/12 Feb/16 Feb/20 Time (local time, 2014) Feb/24 Feb/28 Results (Preliminary) Impact of local and transport sources on the haze formation in Beijing The results of PM2.5 in Beijing (Preliminary) Air mass back trajectory cluster analysis Study period: 2/8-2/27/2014 Weekly heavy haze: 2/20-2/27/2014 Clean (PM2.5<75 g m-3) Five clusters: S (South), E (East), W-NW (WestNouthWest), NW (NorthWest) and N (North). All Data Haze (PM2.5:75-200 g m-3) Heavy Haze (PM2.5>200 g m-3) The results of PM2.5 in Beijing (HYSPLIT) Air mass back trajectory cluster analysis All data Clean PM2.5<75 g m-3 Haze PM2.5:75-200 g m-3 Heavy Haze PM2.5>200g m-3 Percent Mean_PM2.5 P_Percent WS (%) (μg m−3) (%) (m s-1) N 8.7 16.1 15.93 0.1 N-NW 4.2 7.0 64.16 2.9 NW 15.4 3.6 18.33 0.1 E 1.3 30.1 170.91 36.7 S 2 42.5 268.4 60.2 N 74.2 15.26 1 9.1 N-NW 7.5 54.32 1 5.6 NW 18.3 18.33 1 15.4 N 4.3 22.55 0 4 N-NW 16.4 66.77 9.0 3.8 E 43.5 95.31 41.9 1.3 S 35.8 142.57 49.1 2.5 E 34.4 318.56 34.4 1.3 S 65.6 291.81 65.6 1.8 The results of PM2.5 in Beijing: PSCF and CWT analyses CWT PSCF Clean PM2.5<75 g m-3 Haze PM2.5:75-200 g m-3 Heavy Haze PM2.5>200g m-3 Conclusions (Preliminary)  Two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ has been set up to simulate air pollution over the eastern Asia for some days but has some problems with “NaN”  Based on the trajectory cluster, PSCF and CWT analysis for weekly haze (2/20-2/27/2014) at Beijing Brian K. Eder  Five clusters: S, E, W-NW, NW, and N  Heavy haze email: from SW province (such as Handan, Baoding [email protected] etc., Hebei)  Haze from S and SW provinces (such as Heze, Liaocheng www.arl.noaa.gov/ etc., Shandong, Baoding etc., Hebei)  Clean air from NW and N with very fast air masses Therefor, needwww.epa.gov/asmdnerl control emissions in Hebei and Shandong  We will continue model test and use the model to explain the sources and formation of haze in BTH region in the future Contacts: Hope to finish the China simulations for 2013 soon