Phosphate Forecast: How Far Can We Go (How Deep Can
IFDC Phosphate Forecast: How Far Can We Go (How Deep Can We Dig?) S. Van Kauwenbergh Geologist and Principal Scientist Research and Development Division IFDC Centre for the Development of Fertilizer Technology Universidade Federal de Uberlandia October 2011 IFDC Phosphate Rock General Term Naturally occurring materials with significant amounts of P2O5 minerals Concentrates IFDC Relationship of Phosphate Rock and Phosphate Fertilizers Phosphate Rock Direct Application Unground, Ground + H2SO4 + H2SO4 SSP CaSO4·XH2O WPA + Ammonia DAP, MAP NPKs + HNO3 Nitrophosphates + Phosphate Rock TSP NPKs IFDC Phosphate Rock 72% 12% 2% 14% – – – – Phosphoric Acid SSP TSP (excludes P2O5 from PA) Other Uses (Nyri, 2010) Total P2O5 82% – Fertilizer 18% – Industrial Uses (Prud’homme, 2010) IFDC High--Analysis Fertilizers High DAP (18-46-0) MAP (10-50-0) (11-55-0, others) TSP (0-46-0) Globally, half of all fertilizer applications Over next five years, 40 new DAP, MAP and TSP units in 10 countries (Prud’homme, 2010) Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 2009-2012 = 3.2% CAGR (Jung, 2010) IFDC Conceptual World Environmental Footprint From Phosphoric AcidAcid-Based Fertilizers Sulfuric Acid 560 mmt ore 76 mmt P2O5 ore 53 mmt P2O5 37 mmt P2O5 Mining Beneficiation Concentrate Phos Acid 30% P2O5 not Ore content recovered ~ 15% P2O5 ~ 8 mmt P2O5 loss (in mining) ~23 mmt P2O5 loss Move ~ 5601,700 mmt overburden Fine Waste Waste Piles 25 mmt P2O5 Fertilizer Use Other Uses ~ 185 mmt Gypsum ~ 4-9 mmt P2O5 Loss Stacks Ocean Disposal Surrounding production facilities Erosion, Runoff, Amount of P2O5? IFDC High-Analysis Fertilizers High-quality materials required Lower cost per unit of P2O5 transportation Low-Analysis Fertilizers Lower quality materials possible Less P2O5 losses? Less waste? Higher cost per unit P2O5 Transportation—a problem IFDC Usually 80 BPL (36.6% P2O5) – 60 BPL (27.4% P2O5) Low carbonate content Low Fe2O3, Al2O3, and MgO contents Low Cl- content IFDC Physical Factors Texture: hardness, porosity, cementing, or coating phases Phosphate particle size: coarse to cryptocrystalline Degree of crystallinity of the apatite Effect of physical treatments: natural or calcined state Chemical Factors P content of phosphate rock (BPL grade) F content of the apatite Carbonate content of the apatite Free carbonate content CaO/P2O5 weight ratio (phosphate and accessory mineral sources) Fe and Al content (combined R2O3) SiO2 content Mg content (phosphate and accessory mineral sources) Content of inert mineral gangue (insoluble oxides and silicates) Na and K (phosphate and accessory mineral sources) Organic matter (native types + beneficiation reagents) Chlorides (from evaporite salts, phosphate substitution, process water) Sr content Heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg) Potentially toxic elements (Se, As, Cr, V) Radionuclides (U, Th, Ra, Rn) from phosphate minerals Source: Adapted from Lehr (1980). Quality Factors for Commercial Phosphate Rocks IFDC Other QualityQuality-Related Factors Reserves Continuity of Supply Chemical Consistency Potential Changes Over the Life of a Deposit Similarity in Composition and Quality to Other Available Sources Substitution IFDC Phosphorus From Phosphate Rock Two major types Sedimentary – carbonate apatite Igneous – fire-formed (fluor-chlor-hydroxl-apatite) Apatite – “Apate,” Greek Goddess of deceit, guile, fraud and deception released from Pandora’s Box IFDC Economic and Potentially Economic Phosphate Deposits of the World IFDC IFDC Sedimentary Phosphate Rock Found throughout the geological time scale Wide range in compositions and physical form Economic deposits Grade Thick beds Unconsolidated Uniform granular texture Shallow overburden Minimum structural deformation IFDC Insular Deposits A form of sedimentary deposits Islands IFDC Sedimentary Deposits Tectosilicates—sandy materials Clays Carbonates Francolite IFDC Igneous Deposits Hard rock Residual deposits Intermediate stages IFDC Igneous Deposits Hard rock High temperature minerals Silica deficient Residual deposits Soil like Clays Igneous apatite varieties IFDC Igneous Phosphate Rocks Alkaline intrusions Carbonates Nepheline Alkali feldspars Micas Pyroxenes Amphiboles Magnetite, hematite, goethite Rare earth minerals IFDC Phosphate deposits are altered by exposure and weathering Break down of unstable or metastable minerals Leaching of carbonates Alteration of apatite composition Formation of “new” minerals IFDC Apatites Igneous or Sedimentary High Substituted >25 Elements IFDC Apatite Igneous Fluor-, hydroxyl-, and chlor- Ca10(PO4)6 (F, OH, Cl)2 Sedimentary Francolite Ca10-a-bNaaMgb(PO4)6-c(CO3)cF2F0.185c (34%–42% P2O5; 7%–0% CO2) Carbonate hydroxylapatite Ca10(PO4)6(OH)2 IFDC Apatites Highly CO2 Substituted Francolite Wt. % CaO 55.2 Altered Francolite or Igneous Fluorapatite Wt. % CaO 55.6 Na2O MgO P2O5 CO2 F CaO/P2O5 NAC/P2O5 Na2O MgO P2O5 CO2 F CaO/P2O5 NAC P2O5 1.4 0.7 33.3 6.9 4.4 1.66 ~7.0 0.0 0.0 42.2 0.0 3.7 1.32 ~1.3 IFDC Varieties of Apatite and Selected Crystallographic and Optical Properties Unit-Cell a-Dimension of Some UnitHydroxyl--Containing Carbonate Hydroxyl Apatites in Some Sedimentary PRs IFDC Common Secondary Phosphate Minerals Formed During the Weathering of Phosphate Deposits Crandallite Series Crandallite CaAl3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O Goyazite (Sr,Ca)Al3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O Gorceixite (Ba,Ca)Al3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O Wavellite Al3(PO4)2(OH)3•5H2O Varisite AlPO4•2H2O Strengite FePO4•2H2O Dufrenite Fe+2Fe+3(PO4)3(OH)5•2H2O Beraunite Fe+2Fe5+3(PO4)4(OH)5•4H2O IFDC Phosphate Rock Commercial Production Tons 1847 1850 1853 1865 1885 1928 1974 500 5,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 IFDC IFDC Sedimentary Phosphate Rock 80%–90% of world production Present or former continental margins Igneous Phosphate Rock 10%–20% of world production Shield areas, rift zones IFDC World Mine Production of Phosphate Concentrate, 19451945-1981 150 Other Developing Countries 100 Million Tons ns MOROCCO Other Central Economy Countries SOVIET UNION 50 UNITED STATES 0 Year Source: Krauss, Saam, and Schmidt, 1984. IFDC Anonymous (1976) UNIDO Report November 1616-18, 1976 meeting in Vienna, Austria World phosphate rock production for fertilizer would be on the order of 210 million tons per year by year 2000 Total phosphate rock production therefore might be about 260 million tons per year IFDC IFDC World Phosphate Rock Production (USBM/USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 1982–2010) Production (million tons) World Phosphate Rock Production 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1975 y = 0.0677x + 7.2845 R2 = 0.0025 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year World Total United States Morocco Russia Other World Total Trend China 2010 2015 IFDC IFDC IFDC Some Countries/Regions Are Simply More Endowed With Phosphate Resources North America—U.S. Europe—Russia Africa—Morocco and South Africa South America—Brazil and Peru Asia—Jordan and China Oceania—Australia IFDC There has been a continuous decrease in world phosphate rock quality as reserves of high-grade and high-quality phosphate rock are being depleted. — Is this true? IFDC World Phosphorus Production by Grade World Phosphorus Production (Thousands of Tonnes) 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 30% P2O5 and under 31% P2O5 34% P2O5 36% P2O5 and over 32% P2O5 2010 IFDC Phosphate Rock Mining and Beneficiation IFDC Phosphate Rock Mining Generally Similar to Coal Mining Open--Cast Open Underground IFDC Open Pit Mining Costs Site and Scale Specific Overburden/Ore Ratio IFDC Underground Mining Costs Site and Scale Specific General – 1.75x Open Pit IFDC Phosphate Rocks Beneficiation Size classification Dry Wet Flotation Magnetic separation IFDC Togo IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC IFDC Phosphate Losses Loss of Phosphate Rock Mining Bed too thin, not suitable Open pit Underground 100% 5-50% 15-35% Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%) Beneficiation Southeast U.S. West U.S. South America North Africa West Africa Middle East 40-80 30 40 30 Up to 60 30 IFDC Mining, Beneficiation, P2O5 Recovery Mining – Economic = Large-Scale Beneficiation – Generally as simple and least costly as possible – Froth flotation employed in U.S. in 1920s–1930s, employed in North Africa and Middle East in last 15 years P2O5 recovery – Grade inversely proportional to recovery – Geared to phosphoric acid production based on acceptable impurities and losses IFDC Will Phosphate Rock and Phosphate Fertilizer Be Important in the Future? IFDC Developed Countries: Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash and Total NPK Consumption 1961/62 - 2008/09 IFDC Developing Countries: Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash and Total NPK Consumption 1961/62 - 2008/09 IFDC Per Hectare P2O5 Use by Markets – 2008/09 (kg/ha) IFDC Main Drivers of Agricultural Intensification Demand for Food, Fiber, and Crop OutputBased Bioenergy Changing Lifestyles Changing Diets Land and Water Scarcity Advances in Technology Environmental Issues High Yield Crops = High Nutrient Requirements IFDC Phosphate Rock Has Been a Relatively Low-Value Bulk Commodity IFDC Time-Price TimeRelationships for Phosphate Rock, 19701970-1990 Time-Price Relationships for Timea U.S. Phosphate Rock, 19911991-2008 120 Actual Price ($) Constant 2008 ($) Price (US $) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Year (Average annual U.S. producer domestic and export price, f.o.b. mine.) Source: USGS (1984-2009). a. Based on Producer Price Index, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2008. IFDC Fertilizer Prices (FOB, bulk) Monthly Averages January 2002– 2002–September 2011 IFDC IFDC World Phosphate Supply and Demand Balance, 2007/2008 – 2011/2012 2007– 2008 2008– 2009 2009– 2010 2010– 2011 2011– 2012 P2O5 x ‘000 tons Total Supplya 37,000 38,461 39,672 Total Demandb 36,613 37,554 38,456 39,528 40,426 Surplus (deficit) 387 907 1,216 41,112 43,299 1,584 2,873 a. Supply growth rate is about 3.2% per year. b. Demand growth rate is about 2.0% per year. Source: Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/2012, FAO, Rome, 2008. IFDC North African Phosphate Rock Prices (fob) 600 US Dollars ($) 500 400 300 200 100 0 North Africa from Green Markets (Jan. 2004-Jan. 2011) North Africa from FMB Weekly (July 2008-Jan. 2011) IFDC Source: Jasinski, 2005. IFDC Numerous articles have suggested phosphorus (phosphate rock) reserves — resources will be depleted in the 21st century. Rosemarin 2004 Rosemarin et al. 2009 Cordell, Dragert and White 2009 de Haes et al. 2009 Vaccari 2009 Institute of Ecology 1971 Phosphate rock reserves exhausted in 90-130 years Rosemarin and Caldwell, 2007 Probable Scenarios by 2020 (Summarized by SJVK) Demand for food/fiber increasing Depletion of cheap phosphate rock reserves is occurring Global price hikes—fertilizer, grains Morocco leads new OPEC for phosphate *Global economy flips from oil to phosphorus based IFDC IFDC Indicative peak phosphorus curve, illustrating that, in a similar way to oil, global phosphorus reserves are also likely to peak after which production will be significantly reduced (Jasinski, 2006; European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association, 2000). Global. Source: Cordell, Dragert and White, 2009 IFDC Many recent articles on phosphorus depletion rely on USGS data for phosphate rock reserve and resource estimates IFDC IFDC IFDC ReserveReserve-Resource Study Literature review Past reserve-resource estimates Evaluate current phosphate rock mining, beneficiation methods and P2O5 recovery Make a preliminary estimate of world reserves and resources IFDC Phosphate Rock Literature Review Limited traditional sources since early 1990s Information from websites, trade magazines, conference papers, papers with limited distribution, company annual reports, stock market reports Reserve-resource terminology is not standardized IFDC World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources —Economically producible under present technical and economic conditions —Reserves plus all other deposits that may eventually become available *May be subjective IFDC Reserves and Resources – This Study Reserves – Phosphate rock that can be economically produced at the time of the determination to make suitable products, reported as tons of concentrate Resources – Phosphate rock of any grade that may be produced at some time in the future, including reserves Past World Phosphate Rock Reserve and Resource Estimates Based on Author’s Terminology Phosphate Rock Resources Estimated Recoverable Product Reserves Reserve Base (metric tons x 109 [U.S. Billion]) Emigh (1972) 1,200 Wells (1975) 530 (30% P2O5) DeVoto and Stevens (1979) Cathcart (1980) 1,200 Fantel et al. (1988) Notholt, Sheldon and Davidson (1989) 265 (~30% P2O5) 91 20 (≥30% P2O5) 37 163 (~22.5% P2O5) USGS (2009) a. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $40/ton. b. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $100/ton. Emigh (1972) – No data for Middle East, North Africa. DeVoto and Stevens (1979) – Only for free world. Fantel et al. (1988) – Little or no data for much of Middle East. No data for China. 15a IFDC 47b IFDC Mining, Beneficiation, P2O5 Recovery Mining – Economic = Large-Scale Beneficiation – Generally as simple and least costly as possible – Froth flotation employed in U.S. in 1920s–1930s, employed in North Africa and Middle East in last 15 years P2O5 recovery – Grade inversely proportional to recovery – Geared to phosphoric acid production based on acceptable impurities and losses IFDC Phosphate Losses Loss of Phosphate Rock Mining Bed too thin, not suitable Open pit Underground 100% 5-50% 15-35% Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%) Beneficiation Southeast U.S. West U.S. South America North Africa West Africa Middle East 40-80 30 40 30 Up to 60 30 IFDC Phosphate Rock Reserves as Published in USBM/USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries Reserves and Resources – This Study Original, most current literature or other sources Evaluated if reserves were given as ore or concentrate Assumed mining recovery – 95% open pit – accepted underground recoverable ore estimates Applied appropriate ore-to-concentrate ratios Estimated reserves as product Resources – mmt of raw materials, range of grades IFDC IFDC 350 IFDC (2010) Preliminary Resource Estimate 290 300 Tons x 109 (U.S. billion) 250 200 150 IFDC (2010) Preliminary Reserve Estimate (Product) 100 60 50 USGS (2010) Reserves 16 0 USGS (2011) Reserves 65 IFDC Country IFDC Reserves (Product) a IFDC Resourcesb (mmt) IFDC Reserve and Resource Estimate United States Australia Brazil Canada China Egypt Israel Jordan Morocco Russia Senegal South Africa Syria Togo Tunisia Other countries World total (rounded) 1,800 82 400 5 3,700 51 220 900 51,000 500 50 230 250 34 85 600d 60,000 49,000 3,500 2,800 130 16,800 3,400 1,600 1,800 170,000c 4,300 250 7,700 2,000 1,000 1,200 22,000e 290,000 a. Reserves as usable or marketable product. b. Resources as unprocessed phosphate rock of varying grades or concentrate. c. Including hypothetical resources based on the area limits of the deposits, Morocco resources may be about 340,000 mmt. d. Includes data from Algeria, Finland, Peru and Saudi Arabia (Al-Jalamid). e. Includes data from Algeria, Angola, Finland, Kazakhstan, Peru and Saudi Arabia. IFDC Identified minable reserves placed by OCP in 1984 at 56.25 billion tons Speculated – total resources may approach 140 billion tons World Survey of Phosphate Deposits (Savage, 1987) IFDC Reserves Established on technology, potential market, prices and costs of production Established with study and considerable manpower Established on a planning horizon (15-20 years, longer for some producers) IFDC Source: Jung, 2008 IFDC New Mines Peru—Bayovar Saudi Arabia—Al Jalamid Projects Morocco Finland Tunisia FSU Algeria Egypt Brazil China Australia Canada IFDC Conclusions Phosphate rock is a finite nonrenewable resource. Phosphate rock reserves and resources are irregularly distributed around the globe. On a worldwide basis, there is an ample supply of phosphate rock for the foreseeable future. IFDC Conclusions (Cont.) Realignments of world trade are occurring. Phosphate rock prices are increasing and new mines are being developed. The trend in utilizing lower grade and lower quality PR will continue. Development of deposits with low contents of potentially hazardous elements will be favorable. IFDC Conclusions (Cont.) World trade will be dominated by established producers of sedimentary rock. Vertical integration with fertilizer production and joint ventures will be favorable business arrangements. IFDC How Far Can We Go (How Deep Can We Dig?) Demand? Technology? Cost? Economic and Potentially Economic Phosphate Deposits of the World IFDC IFDC Phosphate Rock Prices Will Increase More overburden, deeper mines Challenging environments Underground Offshore Lower grade ore Increased processing costs IFDC Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources – – – Needs further analysis World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources Workshop, 2011, 2012? Global TraPs Project • • Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich IFDC IFDC Long--Term Future Long In general phosphate deposits developed in the future may be: Smaller. Deeper, more overburden. At greater distances from coasts. In more challenging environments. Higher cost! Lower grade with more impurities. Available reserves may dictate lower grade and/or less water-soluble fertilizer products IFDC
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