IFDC
Phosphate Forecast: How Far Can
We Go (How Deep Can We Dig?)
S. Van Kauwenbergh
Geologist and Principal Scientist
Research and Development Division
IFDC
Centre for the Development of Fertilizer Technology
Universidade Federal de Uberlandia
October 2011
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Phosphate Rock
General Term
Naturally occurring materials with
significant amounts of P2O5 minerals
Concentrates
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Relationship of Phosphate Rock and
Phosphate Fertilizers
Phosphate Rock
Direct Application
Unground, Ground
+ H2SO4
+ H2SO4
SSP
CaSO4·XH2O
WPA
+ Ammonia
DAP, MAP
NPKs
+ HNO3
Nitrophosphates
+ Phosphate Rock
TSP
NPKs
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Phosphate Rock
72%
12%
2%
14%
–
–
–
–
Phosphoric Acid
SSP
TSP (excludes P2O5 from PA)
Other Uses
(Nyri, 2010)
Total P2O5
82% – Fertilizer
18% – Industrial Uses
(Prud’homme, 2010)
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High--Analysis Fertilizers
High
DAP (18-46-0)
MAP (10-50-0)
(11-55-0, others)
TSP (0-46-0)
Globally, half of
all fertilizer
applications
Over next five years, 40 new DAP, MAP and TSP units in 10 countries
(Prud’homme, 2010)
Phosphate Fertilizer Demand
2009-2012 = 3.2% CAGR
(Jung, 2010)
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Conceptual World Environmental Footprint
From Phosphoric AcidAcid-Based Fertilizers
Sulfuric Acid
560 mmt ore
76 mmt P2O5 ore
53 mmt P2O5
37 mmt P2O5
Mining
Beneficiation
Concentrate
Phos Acid
30% P2O5 not
Ore content
recovered
~ 15% P2O5
~ 8 mmt P2O5
loss (in mining)
~23 mmt P2O5 loss
Move ~ 5601,700 mmt
overburden
Fine Waste
Waste Piles
25 mmt P2O5
Fertilizer
Use
Other Uses
~ 185 mmt Gypsum
~ 4-9 mmt P2O5 Loss
Stacks
Ocean Disposal
Surrounding production facilities
Erosion,
Runoff,
Amount
of P2O5?
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High-Analysis Fertilizers
High-quality materials required
Lower cost per unit of P2O5 transportation
Low-Analysis Fertilizers
Lower quality materials possible
Less P2O5 losses?
Less waste?
Higher cost per unit P2O5
Transportation—a problem
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Usually 80 BPL (36.6% P2O5) – 60 BPL
(27.4% P2O5)
Low carbonate content
Low Fe2O3, Al2O3, and MgO contents
Low Cl- content
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Physical Factors
Texture: hardness, porosity, cementing, or coating phases
Phosphate particle size: coarse to cryptocrystalline
Degree of crystallinity of the apatite
Effect of physical treatments: natural or calcined state
Chemical Factors
P content of phosphate rock (BPL grade)
F content of the apatite
Carbonate content of the apatite
Free carbonate content
CaO/P2O5 weight ratio (phosphate and accessory mineral
sources)
Fe and Al content (combined R2O3)
SiO2 content
Mg content (phosphate and accessory mineral sources)
Content of inert mineral gangue (insoluble oxides and silicates)
Na and K (phosphate and accessory mineral sources)
Organic matter (native types + beneficiation reagents)
Chlorides (from evaporite salts, phosphate substitution, process
water)
Sr content
Heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg)
Potentially toxic elements (Se, As, Cr, V)
Radionuclides (U, Th, Ra, Rn) from phosphate minerals
Source: Adapted from Lehr (1980).
Quality
Factors for
Commercial
Phosphate
Rocks
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Other QualityQuality-Related Factors
Reserves
Continuity of Supply
Chemical Consistency
Potential Changes Over the
Life of a Deposit
Similarity in Composition and Quality to
Other Available Sources
Substitution
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Phosphorus From Phosphate Rock
Two major types
Sedimentary – carbonate apatite
Igneous – fire-formed (fluor-chlor-hydroxl-apatite)
Apatite – “Apate,” Greek Goddess of deceit, guile,
fraud and deception released from Pandora’s Box
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Economic and Potentially Economic
Phosphate Deposits of the World
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Sedimentary Phosphate Rock
Found throughout the geological time scale
Wide range in compositions and physical
form
Economic deposits
Grade
Thick beds
Unconsolidated
Uniform granular texture
Shallow overburden
Minimum structural deformation
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Insular Deposits
A form of sedimentary deposits
Islands
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Sedimentary Deposits
Tectosilicates—sandy materials
Clays
Carbonates
Francolite
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Igneous Deposits
Hard rock
Residual deposits
Intermediate stages
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Igneous Deposits
Hard
rock
High temperature minerals
Silica deficient
Residual
deposits
Soil like
Clays
Igneous
apatite varieties
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Igneous Phosphate Rocks
Alkaline intrusions
Carbonates
Nepheline
Alkali feldspars
Micas
Pyroxenes
Amphiboles
Magnetite, hematite, goethite
Rare earth minerals
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Phosphate deposits are altered by
exposure and weathering
Break down of unstable or metastable
minerals
Leaching of carbonates
Alteration of apatite composition
Formation of “new” minerals
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Apatites
Igneous or Sedimentary
High Substituted
>25 Elements
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Apatite
Igneous
Fluor-, hydroxyl-, and chlor-
Ca10(PO4)6 (F, OH, Cl)2
Sedimentary
Francolite
Ca10-a-bNaaMgb(PO4)6-c(CO3)cF2F0.185c
(34%–42% P2O5; 7%–0% CO2)
Carbonate hydroxylapatite
Ca10(PO4)6(OH)2
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Apatites
Highly CO2 Substituted
Francolite
Wt. %
CaO
55.2
Altered Francolite or
Igneous Fluorapatite
Wt. %
CaO
55.6
Na2O
MgO
P2O5
CO2
F
CaO/P2O5
NAC/P2O5
Na2O
MgO
P2O5
CO2
F
CaO/P2O5
NAC P2O5
1.4
0.7
33.3
6.9
4.4
1.66
~7.0
0.0
0.0
42.2
0.0
3.7
1.32
~1.3
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Varieties of Apatite and Selected
Crystallographic and Optical Properties
Unit-Cell a-Dimension of Some
UnitHydroxyl--Containing Carbonate
Hydroxyl
Apatites in Some Sedimentary PRs
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Common Secondary Phosphate
Minerals Formed During the
Weathering of Phosphate Deposits
Crandallite Series
Crandallite
CaAl3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O
Goyazite
(Sr,Ca)Al3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O
Gorceixite
(Ba,Ca)Al3(PO4)2(OH)5•H2O
Wavellite
Al3(PO4)2(OH)3•5H2O
Varisite
AlPO4•2H2O
Strengite
FePO4•2H2O
Dufrenite
Fe+2Fe+3(PO4)3(OH)5•2H2O
Beraunite
Fe+2Fe5+3(PO4)4(OH)5•4H2O
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Phosphate Rock
Commercial Production
Tons
1847
1850
1853
1865
1885
1928
1974
500
5,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
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Sedimentary Phosphate Rock
80%–90% of world production
Present or former continental margins
Igneous Phosphate Rock
10%–20% of world production
Shield areas, rift zones
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World Mine Production of Phosphate
Concentrate, 19451945-1981
150
Other Developing Countries
100
Million Tons
ns
MOROCCO
Other Central Economy Countries
SOVIET UNION
50
UNITED STATES
0
Year
Source: Krauss, Saam, and Schmidt, 1984.
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Anonymous (1976)
UNIDO Report
November 1616-18, 1976 meeting in
Vienna, Austria
World phosphate rock production for
fertilizer would be on the order of 210
million tons per year by year 2000
Total phosphate rock production therefore might
be about 260 million tons per year
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World Phosphate Rock Production
(USBM/USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 1982–2010)
Production (million tons)
World Phosphate Rock Production
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975
y = 0.0677x + 7.2845
R2 = 0.0025
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
World Total
United States
Morocco
Russia
Other
World Total Trend
China
2010
2015
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Some Countries/Regions Are
Simply More Endowed With
Phosphate Resources
North America—U.S.
Europe—Russia
Africa—Morocco and South Africa
South America—Brazil and Peru
Asia—Jordan and China
Oceania—Australia
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There has been a continuous decrease in
world phosphate rock quality as reserves
of high-grade and high-quality phosphate
rock are being depleted.
— Is this true?
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World Phosphorus Production by Grade
World Phosphorus Production
(Thousands of Tonnes)
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
30% P2O5 and under
31% P2O5
34% P2O5
36% P2O5 and over
32% P2O5
2010
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Phosphate Rock
Mining and
Beneficiation
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Phosphate Rock Mining
Generally Similar
to Coal Mining
Open--Cast
Open
Underground
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Open Pit Mining
Costs
Site and Scale Specific
Overburden/Ore Ratio
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Underground Mining
Costs
Site and Scale Specific
General – 1.75x Open Pit
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Phosphate Rocks
Beneficiation
Size classification
Dry
Wet
Flotation
Magnetic separation
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Togo
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Phosphate Losses
Loss of Phosphate Rock
Mining
Bed too thin, not suitable
Open pit
Underground
100%
5-50%
15-35%
Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%)
Beneficiation
Southeast U.S.
West U.S.
South America
North Africa
West Africa
Middle East
40-80
30
40
30
Up to 60
30
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Mining, Beneficiation,
P2O5 Recovery
Mining – Economic = Large-Scale
Beneficiation – Generally as simple and least costly as possible
– Froth flotation employed in U.S. in 1920s–1930s,
employed in North Africa and Middle East in last 15
years
P2O5 recovery – Grade inversely proportional to recovery
– Geared to phosphoric acid production based on
acceptable impurities and losses
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Will Phosphate Rock and
Phosphate Fertilizer Be
Important in the Future?
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Developed Countries: Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash and Total NPK Consumption
1961/62 - 2008/09
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Developing Countries: Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash and Total NPK Consumption
1961/62 - 2008/09
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Per Hectare P2O5 Use by Markets – 2008/09
(kg/ha)
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Main Drivers of
Agricultural Intensification
Demand for Food, Fiber, and Crop OutputBased Bioenergy
Changing Lifestyles
Changing Diets
Land and Water Scarcity
Advances in Technology
Environmental Issues
High Yield Crops = High Nutrient Requirements
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Phosphate Rock Has Been a
Relatively Low-Value Bulk
Commodity
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Time-Price
TimeRelationships
for Phosphate
Rock, 19701970-1990
Time-Price Relationships for
Timea
U.S. Phosphate Rock, 19911991-2008
120
Actual Price ($)
Constant 2008 ($)
Price (US $)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Year
(Average annual U.S. producer domestic and export price, f.o.b. mine.)
Source: USGS (1984-2009).
a. Based on Producer Price Index, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2008.
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Fertilizer Prices (FOB, bulk)
Monthly Averages
January 2002–
2002–September 2011
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World Phosphate Supply and Demand
Balance, 2007/2008 – 2011/2012
2007–
2008
2008–
2009
2009–
2010
2010–
2011
2011–
2012
P2O5 x ‘000 tons
Total Supplya
37,000 38,461 39,672
Total Demandb
36,613 37,554 38,456 39,528 40,426
Surplus (deficit)
387
907
1,216
41,112 43,299
1,584
2,873
a. Supply growth rate is about 3.2% per year.
b. Demand growth rate is about 2.0% per year.
Source: Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/2012, FAO, Rome, 2008.
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North African Phosphate Rock Prices (fob)
600
US Dollars ($)
500
400
300
200
100
0
North Africa from Green Markets (Jan. 2004-Jan. 2011)
North Africa from FMB Weekly (July 2008-Jan. 2011)
IFDC
Source: Jasinski, 2005.
IFDC
Numerous articles have suggested phosphorus
(phosphate rock) reserves — resources will be
depleted in the 21st century.
Rosemarin 2004
Rosemarin et al. 2009
Cordell, Dragert and White 2009
de Haes et al. 2009
Vaccari 2009
Institute of Ecology 1971
Phosphate rock reserves exhausted in 90-130 years
Rosemarin and Caldwell, 2007
Probable Scenarios by 2020
(Summarized by SJVK)
Demand for food/fiber increasing
Depletion of cheap phosphate rock
reserves is occurring
Global price hikes—fertilizer, grains
Morocco leads new OPEC for phosphate
*Global economy flips from oil to phosphorus based
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Indicative peak phosphorus curve, illustrating that, in a similar way to
oil, global phosphorus reserves are also likely to peak after which
production will be significantly reduced (Jasinski, 2006; European
Fertilizer Manufacturers Association, 2000).
Global.
Source: Cordell, Dragert and White, 2009
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Many recent articles on
phosphorus depletion rely on
USGS data for phosphate rock
reserve and resource estimates
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IFDC ReserveReserve-Resource Study
Literature review
Past reserve-resource estimates
Evaluate current phosphate rock mining,
beneficiation methods and P2O5 recovery
Make a preliminary estimate of world
reserves and resources
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Phosphate Rock Literature Review
Limited traditional sources since early 1990s
Information from websites, trade magazines,
conference papers, papers with limited
distribution, company annual reports, stock
market reports
Reserve-resource terminology is not
standardized
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World Phosphate Rock
Reserves and Resources
—Economically producible under
present technical and economic conditions
—Reserves plus all other
deposits that may eventually become
available
*May be subjective
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Reserves and Resources –
This Study
Reserves – Phosphate rock that can be
economically produced at the time of the
determination to make suitable products,
reported as tons of concentrate
Resources – Phosphate rock of any grade
that may be produced at some time in the
future, including reserves
Past World Phosphate Rock Reserve and Resource
Estimates Based on Author’s Terminology
Phosphate Rock
Resources
Estimated
Recoverable
Product
Reserves
Reserve
Base
(metric tons x 109 [U.S. Billion])
Emigh (1972)
1,200
Wells (1975)
530 (30% P2O5)
DeVoto and Stevens (1979)
Cathcart (1980)
1,200
Fantel et al. (1988)
Notholt, Sheldon and
Davidson (1989)
265 (~30% P2O5)
91
20 (≥30% P2O5)
37
163 (~22.5% P2O5)
USGS (2009)
a. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $40/ton.
b. Originally described as phosphate rock that could be produced at less than US $100/ton.
Emigh (1972) – No data for Middle East, North Africa.
DeVoto and Stevens (1979) – Only for free world.
Fantel et al. (1988) – Little or no data for much of Middle East. No data for China.
15a
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47b
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Mining, Beneficiation,
P2O5 Recovery
Mining – Economic = Large-Scale
Beneficiation – Generally as simple and least costly as possible
– Froth flotation employed in U.S. in 1920s–1930s,
employed in North Africa and Middle East in last 15
years
P2O5 recovery – Grade inversely proportional to recovery
– Geared to phosphoric acid production based on
acceptable impurities and losses
IFDC
Phosphate Losses
Loss of Phosphate Rock
Mining
Bed too thin, not suitable
Open pit
Underground
100%
5-50%
15-35%
Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%)
Beneficiation
Southeast U.S.
West U.S.
South America
North Africa
West Africa
Middle East
40-80
30
40
30
Up to 60
30
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Phosphate Rock Reserves as
Published in USBM/USGS Mineral
Commodity Summaries
Reserves and Resources –
This Study
Original, most current literature or other sources
Evaluated if reserves were given as ore or concentrate
Assumed mining recovery – 95% open pit – accepted
underground recoverable ore estimates
Applied appropriate ore-to-concentrate ratios
Estimated reserves as product
Resources – mmt of raw materials, range of grades
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350
IFDC (2010) Preliminary
Resource Estimate
290
300
Tons x 109 (U.S. billion)
250
200
150
IFDC (2010) Preliminary
Reserve Estimate
(Product)
100
60
50
USGS (2010) Reserves
16
0
USGS (2011) Reserves
65
IFDC
Country
IFDC Reserves
(Product)
a
IFDC Resourcesb
(mmt)
IFDC Reserve
and
Resource
Estimate
United States
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Morocco
Russia
Senegal
South Africa
Syria
Togo
Tunisia
Other countries
World total (rounded)
1,800
82
400
5
3,700
51
220
900
51,000
500
50
230
250
34
85
600d
60,000
49,000
3,500
2,800
130
16,800
3,400
1,600
1,800
170,000c
4,300
250
7,700
2,000
1,000
1,200
22,000e
290,000
a. Reserves as usable or marketable product.
b. Resources as unprocessed phosphate rock of varying grades or concentrate.
c. Including hypothetical resources based on the area limits of the deposits,
Morocco resources may be about 340,000 mmt.
d. Includes data from Algeria, Finland, Peru and Saudi Arabia (Al-Jalamid).
e. Includes data from Algeria, Angola, Finland, Kazakhstan, Peru and Saudi Arabia.
IFDC
Identified minable reserves placed by
OCP in 1984 at 56.25 billion tons
Speculated – total resources may
approach 140 billion tons
World Survey of Phosphate Deposits (Savage, 1987)
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Reserves
Established on technology, potential market,
prices and costs of production
Established with study and considerable
manpower
Established on a planning horizon (15-20 years,
longer for some producers)
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Source: Jung, 2008
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New Mines
Peru—Bayovar
Saudi Arabia—Al Jalamid
Projects
Morocco
Finland
Tunisia
FSU
Algeria
Egypt
Brazil
China
Australia
Canada
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Conclusions
Phosphate rock is a finite nonrenewable
resource.
Phosphate rock reserves and resources are
irregularly distributed around the globe.
On a worldwide basis, there is an ample
supply of phosphate rock for the foreseeable
future.
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Conclusions (Cont.)
Realignments of world trade are occurring.
Phosphate rock prices are increasing and
new mines are being developed.
The trend in utilizing lower grade and lower
quality PR will continue.
Development of deposits with low contents of
potentially hazardous elements will be
favorable.
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Conclusions (Cont.)
World trade will be dominated by established
producers of sedimentary rock.
Vertical integration with fertilizer production
and joint ventures will be favorable business
arrangements.
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How Far Can We Go
(How Deep Can We Dig?)
Demand?
Technology?
Cost?
Economic and Potentially Economic
Phosphate Deposits of the World
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Phosphate Rock
Prices Will Increase
More overburden, deeper mines
Challenging environments
Underground
Offshore
Lower grade ore
Increased processing costs
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Phosphate Rock Reserves
and Resources
–
–
–
Needs further analysis
World Phosphate Rock Reserves and
Resources Workshop, 2011, 2012?
Global TraPs Project
•
•
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich
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Long--Term Future
Long
In general phosphate deposits developed in
the future may be:
Smaller.
Deeper, more overburden.
At greater distances from coasts.
In more challenging environments.
Higher cost!
Lower grade with more impurities.
Available reserves may dictate lower grade
and/or less water-soluble fertilizer products
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