MARKET INSIGHTS F. Yap Securities, Inc. website A member of the Philippine Stock Exchange T--BILL RATES Rates (as of 02 February 2015) Volume 11 February 2015 NEW YORK Dow Jones 91-day (+12.5bps) 182-day (-1.3bps) 364-day (+1.1bps) 1.541 1.758 8.00 6.00 Nasdaq Comp. S&P 500 1.947 6.00 Gold (US$/oz) Copper (c/lb) SLF (US$) PLDT (US$) Total Vol. Chg FOREX (Pbn) 20.00 Nym. crude ($/bl) 17,868.76 +139.55 Close 44.31 4,787.65 2,068.59 +61.63 +21.85 Open 44.40 1,232.80/1,233.30 -8.50 Average 44.35 256.25 -3.65 High 44.43 618,599 +0.06 Low 44.29 58,020 +0.40 33.51 (P1,484.83) 69.21 (P3,066.70) 50.02 -2.84 Vol.($mn) 687.80 P P MARKET COMMENTARY FOR 10 February 2015 Market Outlook for 11 February 2015 PSEi down @ 7,723 Local equities weakened on concerns over Greece, even as fund rotation enabled other shares such as select second liners, to play catch up. PSEi lost 59 points at 7,723 (-0.76% day-on-day), with all counters red except services (+0.35%). URC (-P7.80 at P216.20) & MPI (-P0.27 at P4.97) were among those that slipped. Market breadth favored bears, 97-90, while turnover jumped to P17bn. Net foreign selling was P1.38bn. Sessions might take its cue from Wall Street’s incline (DJIA +139, Nasdaq Composite +61 points), on hopes for resolutions on issues in Greece. Part of the support might stem from IMF’s outlook upgrade for the Philippines, including encouraging sector prospects this year. Over the short term, eyes will be on the local central bank's policy decision tomorrow. Accumulate on dips in select large-caps with convincing prospects for the year. Immediate support is 7,700, resistance 7,750. Asian equities mixed Asian equities closed mixed as nervousness over Greece potentially withdrawing from the euro & escalating conflict in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Philippines (-0.76% day-on-day) led losers, followed by South Korea (-0.57%) & Indonesia (-0.42%). China was up (Shanghai Comp +1.81%, Shenzhen SE Comp +1.55%) after consumer prices rose at its slowest pace in January. Philippine Composite Index South Korea Composite Index Jakarta Composite Index Japan's Nikkei 225 Thailand Stock Exchange Taiwan Stock Exchange Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Singapore STI Index Shenzhen SE Composite CSI 300 Index (Shanghai Comp) 09 February Points Chg. 10 February 7,723.14 7,782.57 -59.43 1,935.86 1,947.00 -11.14 5,326.05 5,348.47 -22.42 17,652.68 17,711.93 -59.25 1,596.91 1,601.77 -4.86 9,393.70 9,421.50 -27.80 24,531.09 24,521.00 10.09 1,815.73 1,811.58 4.15 3,431.03 3,418.02 13.01 1,512.49 1,489.39 23.10 3,406.94 3,345.92 61.02 %Change -0.76 -0.57 -0.42 -0.33 -0.30 -0.30 +0.04 +0.23 +0.38 +1.55 +1.82 Wall Street up US stocks rose on optimism Greece will reach an accord with creditors even as Germany damped prospects of a compromise. While German finance minister Shaeuble said there were no plans to discuss a new accord with Greece or give the country more time, investors speculated all sides would eventually reach a deal. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) accelerated 139 points at 17,868 (+0.795 day-onday), Nasdaq Composite gained 61 points at 4,787 (+1.305). The Information contained herein was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but whose accuracy and completeness we do not guarantee. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation by us for the purchase and sale of any securities mentioned herein. F. Yap Securities, Inc. website A member of the Philippine Stock Exchange MARKET INSIGHTS 11 February 2015 Crude sharply down West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery was down $2.84 at $50.02/barrel in Nymex, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said US will contribute most to global growth in oil supplies through 2020. Estimates also show US inventories probably rose last week. IEA says US will continue to lead oil supply growth International Energy Agency (IEA) said the US will remain the world's top source of oil supply growth up to 2020. Supply growth of US light, tight of oil will initially slow to a trickle due to the collapse in prices but will regain momentum later, bringing production to 5.2mn barrels per day (BPD) by 2020. IEA sees global growth in oil demand to accelerate to 1.13mn BDP in 2016 from 910,000 BPD in 2015, with the price decline having a marginal impact on demand growth for the rest of the decade. IMF upgrades 2015 growth outlook for Philippines International Monetary Fund (IMF) said more reforms are needed to build on gains the Philippines has achieved. IMF said 2014 growth of the country at 6.1% was among the best in the region. IMF furthered, fundamentals are strong & investments, including foreign direct investment (FDI), is picking up. IMF expects growth to pick up to 6.6% in 2015, faster than the previous forecast of 6.3%, while government sees 7%-8% expansion. Pump prices up Pilipinas Shell & Petron (PCOR) raised pump prices as follows: (1) P.40/liter (L) for gasoline; (2) P2.15/L kerosene; & (3) P1.90/L diesel. Price adjustments took effect starting 10 February. November FDI up @ $399mn Foreign direct investments (FDI) for November rose, on higher equity capital placements, according to the central bank (BSP). Net inflows reached $399mn (+34.2% year-on-year). The increase was largely driven by higher net equity capital investments, which soared to $201mn from $7mn in November 2013. MER hints of higher rates for February Meralco (MER) said February rates will increase by P0.84/kWh due to higher generation charges which rose by P0.52/kWh. MER warned, repairs on power plants would likely push up generation charges, on top of inclusion of feed-in-tariff (FiT), representing the guaranteed rate for renewable energy suppliers. MWSS did not raise objection to Maynilad tariff hike Metro Pacific (MPI) & DM Consunji (DMC) unit, Maynilad, may raise their rates soon, after Metropolitan Waterworks & Sewerage System (MWSS) decided not to question the International Chamber of Commerce's decision that allowed the utility to increase tariffs. This would result to an average increase of P3.06./cubic meter (cu. m.) on basic water charge of P31.28/cu. m. Maynilad plans to stagger the increase over 3 years, a scheme that is still subject to the approval of MWSS. Maynilad to cut nonrevenue water Maynilad (MPI, DMC unit) will spend P3.2bn (+45% year-on-year) in 2015 to reduce non-revenue water (NRW), the gap between the amount of water put into distribution & water for which customers are actually billed. In 2014, Maynilad reduced water losses to 33% from 35% in 2013. MPI’s $200mn overnight placement priced @P4.90/share Metro Pacific (MPI) raised $200mn fresh funds through its overnight accelerated Top-Up placement of 1.812bn shares, at P4.90 apiece. The placement covered Metro Pacific Holdings (MPH), MPI’s principal shareholder, lending 1.812bn of its own shares in MPI to investors. Under the deal, MPH will buy & subscribe to the same number of shares & same price to what MPI will issue out of its unissued capital. This will reduce MPH’s holdings in MPI to 52.13% from 55.76%. Proceeds will finance MPI’s investments in local infrastructure. Meanwhile, MPI unit, Manila North Tollways Corp (MNTC), received the Notice of Award, for the Operation & Maintenance (O&M) contract of Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEx). PCOR’s chair is Cojuangco Petron's (PCOR) board elected Eduardo M. Cojuango, Jr. as chairman, replacing Ramon S. Ang, who would become president. Former PCOR president Lubin B. Nepomuceno was appointed general manager. CPG boosted leasable portfolio Century Properties (CPG) expanded its leasable commercial area by 23,000sqm., with the launch of grade-A office spaces at Century Spire Tower. The expansion value is at P2.5bn. A single unit ranges 50-90sqm., priced at P185,000-P205,000/sqm. Tenants will also receive fiscal & non-fiscal incentives, as the development is accredited by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA). PAL inked codeshare pact with WestJet Philippine Airlines (PAL) started its code-share accord with Canadian carrier, WestJet, marking the firm as PAL’s 9th partner. The code share routes will originate from PAL's 2 gateways in Canada, Vancouver & Toronto. In addition, passengers on PAL's Canadian flights may connect to WestJest's entire local network & to WestJet’s international network such as US, Caribbean & Mexico. The Information contained herein was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but whose accuracy and completeness we do not guarantee. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation by us for the purchase and sale of any securities mentioned herein. F. Yap Securities, Inc. website MARKET INSIGHTS A member of the Philippine Stock Exchange 11 February 2015 CEB missed 2014 passenger growth target Cebu Air (CEB) missed its passenger growth target for 2014. Combined passengers of Cebu Pacific & Tigerair Philippines reached 16.87mn last year (+17.5% year-on-year) against 17mn target. Combined load factor rose to 83.9% in 2014 from 81.9%. CEB achieved notable passenger growth for domestic & international, with its increased presence in Middle East & Japan, & entry into Australia. CEB raised flights to local markets, as Tigerair launched 8 local routes from Manila & Cebu, to Butuan, Clark, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, General Santos, Roxas & Tagbilaran. CEB also launched non-stop flights from Manila to Kuwait, Riyadh & Dammam. BC paid P88mn in advance via placement Benguet (BC) was paid in advance by RYM Business Management (RBMC) worth P88mn, for the subscription to 5.9mn A- & 3.9mn Bshares, pursuant to their 2nd transaction under their Memorandum of Agreement (MoA). The MoA, dated August 2013, is pending approval from SEC, covering BC’s capital increase. BC’s Articles of Incorporation do not provide for pre-emptive rights. Unaudited Full Year 2014 (Pmn) Company Asian United Bank (AUB) Bank of the Phil Islands (BPI) Security Bank (SECB) 2014 1,700.0 18,000.0 7,200.0 4Q14 Non-Performing Loan Trend (Head & office branches) Bank NPL NPL Value (%) (Pmn) Bank of the Phil Islands (BPI) 1.16 7,351.9 China Banking Corp (CHIB) 1.58 3,956.3 Phil Bank of Communications (PBC) 5.66 1,586.7 Phil National Bank (PNB) 3.42 9,920.8 Security Bank (SECB) 0.65 1,180.9 Union Bank of the Phil (UBP) 6.55 9,906.5 2013 1,500.0 17,307.7 5,034.9 Gen. Prov. (Pmn) 6,655.9 2,913.2 389.8 2,571.9 2,198.1 1,356.3 % change +13.3 -4.0 +43.0 Spec. allow. (Pmn) 5,145.2 3,496.4 1,114.7 7,268.0 856.2 9,055.9 RoE (%) 9.46 9.10 3.89 5.57 16.38 15.78 The Information contained herein was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but whose accuracy and completeness we do not guarantee. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation by us for the purchase and sale of any securities mentioned herein.