Property Review Special Edition: Dubai Historic Review 2008-2014 and 2015 Outlook Despite the small correction in values in the second half of 2014, the level of interest in Dubai’s real estate market remains strong. UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Sales Dubai 2014 Highlights RESIDENTIAL KEY TRENDS • • TRANSACTION ACTIVITY • • • • Following two years of strong growth for Dubai’s residential sales, 2014 was a year of stabilisation with moderate growth during the first two quarters; this was followed by a decline in prices during the second half of the year. • As a result of strong price growth, transactional activity slowed down significantly during the second half of 2014 as new supply was delivered to the market and low global oil prices impacted key source markets such as the CIS and GCC countries. POPULAR DEVELOPMENTS / AREAS • • OFFICES • • • Strong rental rate growth of 18% and 13% year-on-year was witnessed since Q4 2011 for apartments and villas respectively. • Leasing Prices peaked in Q2 2014 from the low point • in Q4 2011, recording an overall increase of 75% and 60% for apartments and villas respectively. The second half of 2014, however witnessed a moderate reduction in sales prices as sellers were more willing to match buyer’s expectations. Rental rates were 7% higher than in Q4 2013, and as such many tenants were faced with an increase or no change in rates rather than a reduction when leases were renewed. The slowdown in transactional activity was sig- • nificant, with 25% less transactions for villas and apartments, combined, for the year compared with 2013, according to Reidin. The slowdown was mostly felt in the second half of the year as Q4 transactions levels were down by 40% compared with the same period last year. Off-plan sales slowed as buyers had a wider choice of completed products to choose from. • 2014 witnessed a slowdown in leasing activity as rental rates stabilised and many tenants remained in their existing accommodation rather than relocate. Dubai Marina and JBR, International City, Downtown Dubai, and Jumeirah Lake Towers were the areas that had the most sales transactions for apartments in 2014. • The most popular villa developments were Meadows, Springs and Arabian Ranches accounting for 50% of all villa sales. Demand for offices was minimal, by compar- • ison, as office transactions represented less than 10% of all property transactions in Du• bai, according to Reidin. Buyers are typically smaller-sized businesses looking for their own space in strata-owned buildings. Business Bay was the most transacted office area followed by Jumeirah Lake Towers. • -25% RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS Annual Growth in 2014 Rents: +7% Apartments Sales: Number of Residential transactions in 2014 down by 25% compared to 2013 Supply Delivered In 2014: Apartments: 7,000 Units Office leasing in 2014 improved gradually over the year with the last quarter being the most active in terms of completed transactions. The type of tenants were small-sized companies setting up a small office for trade license purposes as well as large local and international companies expanding or consolidating their business with requirements of +/- 10,000 to 15,000 square feet. Similar to recent years, fitted office space was the most in demand, with buildings well connected to the transportation network performing best. +4% Villas +4% Apartments In addition to the popular freehold areas, apartments for rent in areas such as Bur Dubai and Deira were in demand due to the affordability of properties and the general convenience of these locations. Villas in the Umm Suqeim and Jumeirah areas were in demand. However, most of the supply consisted of older or very large villas, and as such the offering targeting expatriate families for smaller new villas was insufficient. Offices +1% Villas Villas: 650 Units +12% +9% Offices Offices: 300,000 m2 of GLA Source: Reidin 2 2 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 3 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai 2015 Outlook UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai APARTMENTS Leasing • • • • Sales values are largely underwritten by cash buyers and despite the small correction in values in the second half of 2014, the level of interest in the Dubai market remains strong. • In fact, there are two completely different markets; the leasing market which reacts relatively quickly to changes in supply and could therefore soften in 2015/2016 as new supply enters the market and the sales market driven by cash buyers and general market sentiment. Sales • VILLAS • • Why buy off-plan? ⎷ Ability to purchase property at a discount compared to OFFICES • completed developments. This is especially beneficial in well established areas. ⎷ Developers providing attractive financing for off-plan properties and banks lending up to 50% reduces the buyer’s financial burden. ⎷ Rules and regulations for off-plan projects are in place ⎷ Property should be viewed as a medium to long term APARTMENTS VILLAS investment. The potential for capital appreciation is generally maximised at completion and ideally a couple of years down the line. ⎷ Ensure the contractor is already mobilised on site and all RERA approvals are in place. ⎷ Conduct proper due diligence such as checking the developer’s track record from the Lands Department. ⎷ Research the area to find out what and when additional supply will come up in the same vicinity. 4 4 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 With a substantial number of off-plan schemes launched in 2014, 2015 is likely to see a reduction in sales prices for offplan villas and see more attractive payment plans being offered by developers. Prices for completed villas are anticipated to remain stable throughout the year, and communities with minimal facilities and amenities could witness a drop in value. • With current sales rates stabilising and office rental rates witnessing potential increases in the medium term, office yields are expected to improve and as such, purchasing office space may become an increasingly attractive option in 2015. • Total Supply Delivery Anticipated in 2015 in Dubai to protect the buyer’s investment. Tips on buying off-plan We expect transaction activity to reduce across the market as buyers become more cautious, especially when purchasing property for lease, as pressure on rents and yields may increase in light of upcoming supply. A continuation of low oil prices as well as sanctions imposed on various countries may have an effect on demand for highend luxury properties, which could lead to a potential reduction in transactional activity as well as a moderate reduction in sales prices. The overall sales prices of units in sought after communities are likely to see relative stability in sales prices, whilst secondary communities, with limited facilities and amenities are likely to be faced with declining values. OFFICES • • If all the supply is delivered to the market as per current projections, Asteco anticipates a reduction in rental rates over the year, potentially leading to tenant movement in the market and therefore increased transactional activity as new developments are released. Villa rental rates are anticipated to remain stable in the most desirable areas, whilst marginal declines in less desirable areas can be expected. A more significant drop in rental rates could be witnessed in 2016 and beyond as the large number of projects announced in 2013/2014 are completed. Rental rates appeared to have reached an equilibrium in 2014. If landlords remain reasonable in their asking rates, we expect transactional activity to improve during 2015. Certain buildings, especially single owned, good quality properties could potentially see some rental increases in 2015. 12,000 Units 2,000 Units 350,000 m2 of GLA Major Project Launches in 2015 Marina Arcade – Dubai Marina Reef Residence – Jumeirah Village © Asteco Property Management, 2015 5 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Dubai Rental Rates 2008 to 2014 Apartments TYPICAL 2BR APARTMENT RENT EVOLUTION 2008 TO 2014 2BR 0% The table below provides average rental rates for the fourth quarter of every year from 2008 to 2014 for a selection of apartment areas. • Apartment rental rates increased by 65% since 2011 but are still 25% lower than 2008. Rental rates are 6% higher, on average, compared with last year. • Asteco believes that the rapid growth witnessed from 2011 onwards, and especially during 2013, led to rental rates peaking. Going forward, any further increases will make many areas unaffordable to their target market leading to decreased demand and tenant outflow. • Furthermore, any new projects that are due for delivery in the next 12 to 18 months will result in a softening of rental rates throughout 2015. • On average, a 2-bedroom apartment for all Dubai areas combined, leased for AED 122,000 per annum in Q4 2014, whereas the average in 2011 was AED 72,000 and AED 158,000 in 2008 as shown in the adjacent bar chart. Average Apartment Rental Rates as at Q4 (AED 000’s pa) 2009 Business Bay -17% 87 2011 2012 2013 2014 55 45 60 90 93 17% 36% 2009 2010 2BR Apartment Rental Rate 2008 2009 122 2012 2011 2013 2014 % Annual Change 3BR 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 85 70 85 130 135 2008 2009 83 % Change 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20132014 20082014 115 100 125 178 180 3 75 70 75 135 133 0 -12 -2 -36 Deira 88 48 40 37 35 68 65 103 55 55 53 53 85 90 Discovery Gardens 100 58 45 38 45 70 70 135 85 70 53 70 83 80 Downtown Dubai 133 85 70 68 80 98 118 185 120 100 100 125 160 170 275 165 150 150 180 228 245 10 -10 Dubai Marina 130 78 63 63 75 105 113 180 110 90 80 100 140 158 245 160 125 115 135 178 210 14 -14 Greens 120 65 58 55 65 85 83 160 88 78 75 100 135 148 180 130 115 105 130 155 173 7 -13 International City 70 44 27 23 24 43 46 93 63 39 38 38 65 63 1 -33 Jumeirah Beach Residence 115 85 73 70 80 108 118 168 118 95 90 100 135 163 203 148 115 110 140 175 200 15 -1 Jumeirah Lakes Towers 110 65 50 45 55 83 90 160 85 65 65 75 110 133 210 118 85 85 100 148 168 15 -19 35 45 70 65 53 70 95 103 80 90 120 130 4 Palm Jumeirah 200 113 90 90 95 135 150 228 145 120 120 140 175 208 300 200 170 170 190 223 243 13 -18 Sheikh Zayed Road 160 83 70 68 83 98 113 203 130 105 100 110 148 148 290 175 120 120 135 195 200 5 -30 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 138 7% 84 72 2BR 2010 Jumeirah Village 6 99 2008 1BR 2008 -12% 114 AED 000’s pa • -37% 158 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 7 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Dubai Rental Rates 2008 to 2014 Villas TYPICAL 4BR VILLA RENT EVOLUTION 2008 TO 2014 4BR 0% Average Villa Rental Rates as at Q4 (AED 000’s pa) As shown below, the rental market for villas and apartments reached a low in 2011, with rates starting to increase from 2012 onwards. • Villa rates increased by approximately 55% since their lowest in 2011, with Q4 2014 rates still 20% lower than in Q4 2008 but up 4% since last year. • On average, a typical 4BR villa for all Dubai areas combined, leased for AED 274,000 in Q4 2014 compared with AED 191,000 at the lowest point of the market in Q4 2011, as shown in the adjacent bar chart. 211 2008 0% 19% 14% 5% 274 229 192 2009 191 2012 2011 2010 4BR Villa Rental Rate 3BR 2013 2014 % Annual Change 4BR 5BR % Change 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20132014 20082014 Arabian Ranches 275 140 125 125 155 213 215 335 180 160 160 220 285 300 425 265 250 250 285 365 343 -1 -17 Green Community 310 190 160 170 200 230 220 385 210 190 190 220 235 238 393 240 210 210 240 260 253 -2 -35 195 220 250 290 295 340 15 Jumeirah Park Jumeirah Village 8 -9% 260 AED 000’s pa • -38% 338 90 125 155 163 110 150 165 178 145 165 180 210 10 Meadows 325 180 180 180 210 230 238 350 240 200 200 225 250 275 425 265 225 225 265 285 310 8 -25 Mirdif 240 100 80 80 90 138 133 260 120 110 105 115 165 155 275 165 125 125 140 175 175 -3 -40 Palm Jumeirah 375 270 275 275 325 350 355 550 340 315 315 400 495 485 800 450 450 450 500 723 725 0 -9 Springs 250 125 105 105 140 163 195 20 -22 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 9 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Dubai Office Market Sales Prices & Rental Rates 2008 to 2014 Leasing • • • • • The office market lagged behind the residential market by a year, with lowest rental rates witnessed in 2012, and slow growth witnessed thereafter. The fourth quarter of 2014 outperformed the rest of the year with a substantial number of transactions completing for small, medium and large office space. Demand stemmed from all types of tenants, including new companies setting up and requiring an office for trade license purposes as well as local and international tenants seeking to expand or consolidate. 2014 rental rates appeared to have reached an equilibrium, encouraging transactional activity and as a result, 2015 is likely to continue on this positive trend. There appeared to be a lack of single-owned, quality fitted offices in the market due for completion – with the exception of The One JLT by DMCC and C1 Tower at Dubai World Trade Centre, which are anticipated for handover by the end of 2015. % Change Average Office Rental Rates as at Q4 (AED / ft2 pa) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20132014 20082014 Bur Dubai 360 150 110 90 80 95 105 11 -71 Business Bay n/a n/a n/a 75 70 100 103 2 DIFC 525 370 230 220 225 220 235 7 -55 Dubai Investment Park 205 95 50 40 40 55 65 18 -68 Jumeirah Lake Towers 235 100 60 50 50 90 95 6 -60 Sheikh Zayed Road 425 215 160 140 140 175 180 3 -58 Tecom C 350 105 75 60 55 85 100 18 -71 Sales AVERAGE OFFICE SALES PRICES Q4 2008 TO Q4 2014 • • 10 Office sales witnessed a strong decline of 65% from 2008 to their lowest point in 2012, with subsequent growth of 35%, on average, from 2012 to 2014 as sales prices increased by 13% over the last year only. In contrast to the residential sector, transaction levels in the office sector increased by 16% compared with 2013 with close to 1,500 deals recorded by the Dubai Land Department in 2014, according to Reidin. AED per ft2 • In terms of size, most transactions in 2014 were for mid-sized offices measuring from 1,000 to 2,000 square feet, representing approximately 50% of all transactions, whereas small units of less than 1,000 square feet represented 30%. • Although transaction levels improved, sales price growth remained relatively slow, with a yearly increase of only 9% since Q4 2013, and still 50% lower, on average, than at their peak in 2008. © Asteco Property Management, 2015 4% 5% 16% 18% -44% -56% -54% -46% -61% 4250 2500 2200 1900 1900 1800 1250 900 The most transacted areas were Business Bay, Jumeirah Lake Towers and Tecom C, representing close to 80% of all office transactions in 2014 (90% in 2013) according to Reidin. • 26% 750 700 975 2009 2000 1800 1875 1225 1200 650 650 550 550 525 550 Business Bay 2008 1700 DIFC 2010 2011 Dubai Investment Park 2012 2013 2014 900 925 650 550 550 Jumeirah Lake Towers % Change 2013-2014 1075 1100 850 750 750 825 975 Tecom C % Change Q4 2008 - Q4 2014 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 11 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Dubai Sales Prices 2008 to 2014 • Following a year of rapid growth in 2013, 2014 was marked by a slowdown in transaction activity for all property types. Prices were higher and a string of new regulations by the UAE Central Bank and fees (Dubai Land Department transfer fees) made the process of purchasing property in Dubai more expensive. • Q4 2014 villa prices were stable in comparison with Q4 2013, however, prices were 30% lower than in Q4 2008. Indeed, at that time, the strong levels of demand together with the lack of completed villa communities, led to extremely high prices, with Arabian Ranches trading at AED 2,200 per square foot, in comparison with AED1,150 per square foot now, on average. • On average, apartment sale prices in Q4 2014 were 22% lower than in Q4 2008, but still 6% higher than Q4 2013, despite having declined in the second half of 2014. • Palm Jumeirah is the only development that has experienced an increase from its Q4 2008 prices, with rates up by 4%. This increase is due to the firm establishment of the Palm as a unique and exclusive villa community, appealing to both local and international buyers. AVERAGE APARTMENT SALES PRICES AVERAGE VILLA SALES PRICES Q4 2008 TO Q4 2014 Q4 2008 TO Q4 2014 -6% 0% 7% 6% -3% -2% -37% -31% -29% -14% -8% -19% 2700 2700 2200 2325 2050 1225 1000 750 700 1300 1600 1500 1350 1300 1900 1750 1800 1400 1300 1250 825 900 1400 1375 1300 1100 885 1700 1100 1000 1050 925 1050 950 825 775 AED per ft2 AED per ft2 1875 1875 0% 15% -17% -22% -11% 850 750 750 950 450 450 DIFC 11% -48% 2200 550 500 Business Bay -6% Discovery Gardens Dubai Marina Downtown Dubai Greens 1500 1225 1150 850 750 750 900 Arabian Ranches 1125 7% 4% 6% 0% -32% -19% -11% -16% -29% 1175 1175 725 Dubai Sports City 1100 800 650 550 850 975 600 500 475 550 Jumeirah Village Jumeirah Park 13% 5% 1500 1250 10% -11% 2800 2000 2000 2000 1625 1400 1050 675 500 425 710 1100 1000 925 925 12 12 1200 1250 1100 850 700 650 750 600 325 350 2009 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 875 925 1400 1175 1100 500 475 500 4% 0% -5% 0% -2% 3000 2850 2750 2200 1000 850 850 1000 1800 1300 1350 1550 1500 1800 1800 900 1100 1075 850 650 650 International City 2008 1500 AED per ft2 1525 4% JBR 2010 2011 Jumeirah Village JLT 2012 2013 2014 % Change Q4 2008 - Q4 2014 Palm Jumeirah % Change 2013-2014 Meadows 2008 2009 Springs Palm Jumeirah 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Change 2013-2014 % Change Q4 2008 - Q4 2014 13 Property Management, 2015 © Asteco 13 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Dubai Dubai Area & Rent Affordability Map The following map highlights some of Dubai’s most popular residential areas, in terms of their affordability for rent or sale. Most Expensive Expensive Mid Priced Affordable 1 Al Barari 2 Al Furjan 3 Al Nahda 4 Al Qusais 5 Al Warqaa 6 Arabian Ranches 7 Barsha 8 Bur Dubai 9 Business Bay 10 Culture Village 11Deira 12DIFC 13 Discovery Gardens 14 Downtown Dubai 15 Downtown Jebel Ali 16 Dubai Creek 17 Dubai Hills 18 Dubai Investment Park 19 Dubai Marina 20 Dubai Silicon Oasis 21 Dubai Sports City 22Dubailand 23 Emirates Hills 24 Green Community 25IMPZ 26 International City 27JBR 28Jumeirah 29 Jumeirah Golf Estates 30 Jumeirah Islands 31 Jumeirah Park 32 Jumeirah Village 33 Jumierah Lakes Towers 34 Living Legends 35 Maritime City 36Meydan 37Mirdif 38MotorCity 39Muhaisnah 40 Palm Jumeirah 41Remraam 42 Residential City 43 Rigga Al Buteen 44 Sheikh Zayed Road 45 Springs / Meadows 46 Studio City 47 Tecom C 48 The Greens 49 The Lakes 50 The Villa 51 Umm Suqeim 52 Uptown Mirdiff 53 Victory Heights 14 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 Arabian Gulf 35 40 28 27 19 33 11 15 43 12 47 11 7 49 31 11 44 48 13 8 51 11 14 3 9 30 23 44 11 45 2 10 39 32 311 17 25 24 44 311 4 36 44 16 29 53 To Abu Dhabi To Sharjah 21 38 34 311 46 6 52 1 37 311 41 42 5 22 611 26 20 50 611 611 611 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 15 UAE ANNUAL REPORT 2014 UAE Property Review Special Edition: VALUATION & ADVISORY Our professional advisory services are conducted by suitably qualified personnel all of whom have had extensive real estate experience within the Middle East and internationally. Historic Review 2008-2014 and 2015 Outlook Our valuations are carried out in accordance with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and International Valuation Standards (IVS) and are undertaken by appropriately qualified valuers with extensive local experience. The Professional Services Asteco conducts throughout the region include: • Consultancy and Advisory Services • Market Research • Valuation Services SALES Asteco has established a large regional property sales division with representatives based in the UAE, Qatar and Jordan. Our sales teams have extensive experience in the negotiation and sale of a variety of assets. LEASING Asteco has been instrumental in the leasing of many high-profile developments across the GCC. ASSET MANAGEMENT Asteco provides comprehensive asset management services to all property owners, whether a single unit (IPM) or a regional mixed use portfolio. Our focus is on maximising value for our Clients. John Stevens, BSc MRICS Managing Director/Director, Asset Services +971 600 54 7773 [email protected] John Allen, BSc MRICS Director, Valuation & Advisory +971 600 54 7773 [email protected] Sean McCauley, MBA BCom Director - Agency Services +971 600 54 7773 [email protected] OWNERS ASSOCIATION Asteco has the experience, systems, procedures and manuals in place to provide streamlined comprehensive Association Management and Consultancy Services to residential, commercial and mixed use communities throughout the GCC Region. Julia Knibbs, MSc Research & Consultancy Manager, UAE +971 600 54 7773 [email protected] SALES MANAGEMENT Our Sales Management services are comprehensive and encompass everything required for the successful completion and handover of units to individual unit owners. James Joughin, BSc (Hons) MRICS Head of Valuations, Abu Dhabi +971 2 626 2660 [email protected] DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this report has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Asteco Property Management believes to be reliable, however, no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. Asteco Property Management will not be held responsible for any third-party contributions. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute Asteco Property Management’s judgment, as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Figures contained in this report are derived from a basket of locations highlighted in this report and therefore represent a snapshot of the Dubai market. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of forecast information. However, actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond Asteco Property Management’s control. For a full in-depth study of the market, please contact Asteco Property Management’s research team. Asteco Property Management LLC. Commercial Licence No. 218551. Paid-up Capital AED4,000,000. 16 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 © Asteco Property Management, 2015 16 © Asteco Property Management, 2015
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