LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point,
Mumbai-400021
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Item
Open
High
Low
Close
% Cng
Net Cng
Trend
Market Update
Precious Metals
Gold $
1169.5
1172.0
1167.1
1169.9
0.0
0.4
15.92
15.95
15.71
15.74
-1.1
-0.2
LME Alum.
1778.0
1784.5
1778.0
1784.5
0.1
2.5
LME Copper
5729.0
5745.0
5714.0
5730.0
-0.1
-3.5
Silver $
Bank of Japan board member Takahide Kiuchi said that an appropriate level of
inflation for Japan now is lower than the central bank's 2 percent target. "If
the BOJ strengthens monetary easing excessively to push up prices in a short
period of time to a level beyond what is justified by the economy's growth
potential, this could destabilize economic activity and prices," Kiuchi said in a
speech to business leaders in Maebashi, a city north of Tokyo. A former
market economist, Kiuchi has been a lone proponent of making the BOJ's 2
percent inflation target a long-term goal without a deadline. He also voted
against the BOJ's monetary easing in October last year and has continued to
propose reverting back to the pace of asset purchases before the decision. His
proposals have been turned down by an 8-1 vote.
Base Metal
LME Lead
LME Nickel
LME Zinc
1809.0
1815.5
1807.5
1811.0
0.0
0.0
14350.0
14360.0
14260.0
14285.0
-0.8
-110.0
2015.0
2025.5
2015.0
2022.5
0.3
5.0
Energy
Crude $
50.96
51.16
48.89
49.53
-2.44
-1.24
2.78
2.78
2.74
2.75
-0.1
-3.2
96.32
97.85
96.30
97.73
1.4600
1.4077
Euro
1.0847
1.0856
1.0820
1.0841
-0.0400
-0.0004
GB Pound
1.5039
1.5066
1.5024
1.5061
0.1700
0.0026
Japan YEN
120.68
120.97
120.58
120.96
0.1300
0.1600
60.36
60.94
59.72
60.45
1.2200
0.7312
Singapore
1.3752
1.3820
1.3748
1.3813
0.3300
0.0046
Canadian
1.2612
1.2627
1.2595
1.2615
-0.0600
-0.0008
Swissfranc
0.9851
0.9872
0.9835
0.9863
0.0900
0.0009
RMB
6.2620
6.2664
6.2620
6.2620
0.0000
0.0000
Nat. Gas $
Currency
Dollar Index
Rus. Rouble
TIME
ZONE
DATA
Forecast
Previous
12:30pm
EUR
German Trade Balance
3:00pm
EUR
Sentix Investor Confidence
All Day
EUR
Eurogroup Meetings
0
0
7:30pm
USD
Labor Market Conditions Index m/m
0
4.9
20.4B
21.8B
15.3
12.4
0:00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
RBI warns against stronger rupee, even as it helps ease inflationary
pressures. "The rupee has remained strong relative to peer countries.
While an excessively strong rupee is undesirable, it too creates
disinflationary impulses," RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan says in a
statement. The rupee's mention comes as part of RBI's statement cutting
rates unexpectedly. However, Rajan reiterates RBI does not target
exchange rate. RBI has intervened throughout this year to prevent rupee
strength although it has also stepped in at times of excessive weakness.
Page No
1
NSE-CUR USDINR Mar 2015
Rupee ended with gains as dealers avoided taking long dollar positions
ahead of the extended weekend. Reserve Bank of India Governor
Raghuram Rajan said the central bank could not afford to cut interest
rates to reduce foreign flows into the country because of high inflation.
The RBI unexpectedly cut interest rates in January but held rates steady
at its policy review in February. Although the RBI is broadly expected to
cut interest rates further, India has attracted $10.26 billion net inflows
into debt and shares this year because of confidence that inflation will
remain low and expectations for an economic recovery. The Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut its benchmark repo rate citing
improvement in the government’s fiscal quality and lower inflation before
market hours on Wednesday. The rupee opened strongly on Wednesday
but ended lower after dollar demand from state-owned banks likely on
behalf of RBI, and a sharp fall in the local stock market forced dealers to
buy back dollars. Investors also preferred not to book major positions
ahead of the release of the monetary policy of European Central Bank.
Bond investors also remained cautious ahead of the release of India's
monthly retail inflation, even after the Reserve Bank of India cut its repo
rate by 25 basis points for a second time this year. Technically market is
under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 2.4% to settled at 1214764, now USDINR is getting support at 62.3825
and below same could see a test of 62.3225 level, And resistance is now
likely to be seen at 62.56, a move above could see prices testing
62.6775.
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
%
RE
VOL
OI
62.60
62.62
62.44
62.48
-0.11
-0.07
1,368,951
1214764
R1
R2
62.58
62.69
R3
62.76
PP
62.51
S1
62.40
S2
S3
62.33
62.23
Trading Ideas :
#
#
#
#
#
#
USDINR trading range for the day is 62.33-62.69.
Rupee ended with gains as dealers avoided taking long dollar positions ahead of the extended weekend.
Softer readings on inflation are expected to come in through the first half of 2015-16 before firming up to below 6 per cent in the second half – RBI
RBI Governor said the central bank could not afford to cut interest rates to reduce foreign flows into the country because of high inflation.
RBI Reference Rate for USDINR was 62.2015 vs 62.2015.
BUY USDINR ABV 62.65 SL 62.40 TGT 62.90-63.10-63.30.
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Page No
2
NSE-CUR EURINR Mar 2015
Euro dropped as pressure seen on the back of solid US macroeconomic
figures and despite rather positive fundamentals coming from the euro
zone. The currency's plunge continues, as the European Central Bank is
set to begin its€60 billion a month quantitative easing program on
Monday. ECB president Mario Draghi announced that the bond buying
program will last until September, 2016 or beyond if the central bank
does not approach its target inflation rate of 2%.Investors have already
driven yields across Europe to record lows in anticipation of the ECB's
largesse, greatly widening the yield advantage of the U.S. dollar in the
process. Greece's jobless rate climbed in December for the first time in
four months, while economists had expected it to ease, figures from the
Hellenic Statistical Authority showed. The unemployment rate rose to 26
percent from 25.9 percent in the previous two months. The country's
jobless rate was also 26 percent in September versus 26.2 percent in
August. Germany's construction sector expanded in February after
contracting in the previous month, results of a survey from Markit
Economics showed. The purchasing managers' index, or PMI, for the
construction sector, rose to 53.1 in February from 49.5 in January. This
marked the fastest rate of expansion in three months. Technically market
is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by
3.29% to settled at 40944 while prices down -0.52 rupee, now EURINR is
getting support at 68.9425 and below same could see a test of 68.6975
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 69.445, a move above
could see prices testing 69.7025.
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
%
RE
VOL
OI
69.46
69.46
68.96
69.10
-0.75
-0.52
55,020
40944
R1
R2
69.39
69.67
R3
69.89
PP
69.17
S1
68.88
S2
S3
68.67
68.38
Trading Ideas :
#
#
#
#
#
#
EURINR trading range for the day is 68.67-69.67.
Euro dropped as pressure seen on the back of solid US macroeconomic figures and despite rather positive fundamentals coming from the euro zone.
The currency's plunge continues, as the European Central Bank is set to begin its€60 billion a month quantitative easing program on Monday.
ECB President announced that the bond buying program will last until September, 2016 or beyond if the central bank does not approach its target inflation rate of 2%.
RBI Reference Rate for EURINR was 68.602 vs 68.602.
SELL EURINR BELOW 68.90 SL 69.10 TGT 68.60-68.30.
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Page No
3
NSE-CUR GBPINR Mar 2015
GBP dropped after growth in Britain's dominant services sector eased in
February lagging the United States where growth picked up modestly last
month. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at their current
record low of 0.50%, where they have been since March 2009. The
central bank also maintained the stock of asset purchases financed by the
issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion. Industry data showed
that U.K. house prices declined by 0.3% last month, worse than
expectations for a 0.2% drop. U.K. house prices increased 1.9% in
January, downwardly revised from a previously reported gain of 2.0%.
U.K. house prices in the three months to February were 8.3% higher than
in the same three months a year earlier, below forecasts for a gain of
8.5% gain and down from an increase of 8.5% in January. The UK
Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped more
than expected to 56.7, from 57.2 in January, and well below a Reuters
forecast of 57.5. For the United States, the index rose to 57.1, its highest
level since October. The reading was roughly even with the preliminary
read of 57.0 and up from the 54.2 recorded in January. Data earlier in
the week showed growth in the construction sector reached a four-month
high while manufacturing growth was at a seven-month peak in February.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop
in open interest by -9.8% to settled at 29522, now GBPINR is getting
support at 95.155 and below same could see a test of 94.94 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 95.615, a move above could see
prices testing 95.86.
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
%
RE
VOL
OI
95.60
95.65
95.19
95.30
-0.66
-0.64
45,983
29522
R1
R2
95.57
95.84
R3
96.0
PP
95.4
S1
S2
S3
95.1
94.92
94.65
Trading Ideas :
#
#
#
#
#
#
GBPINR trading range for the day is 94.92-95.84.
GBP dropped after growth in Britain's dominant services sector eased in February lagging the United States where growth picked up modestly last month.
The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at their current record low of 0.50%, where they have been since March 2009.
The central bank also maintained the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.
RBI Reference Rate for GBPINR was 94.7142 vs 94.7142.
SELL GBPINR BELOW 95.00 SL 95.30 TGT 94.72-94.55.
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Page No
4
NSE-CUR JPYINR Mar 2015
JPY seen under pressure as firmness in dollar weighed, though
downside seen limited on safe-haven demand for yen after China's
downgrade of its growth outlook. Japan's weekly portfolio flow data
released overnight supports our case for outflows from Japanese
investors to weaken the JPY this year. Japan's weekly capital flows
data showed that foreign investors bought a net 624.5 billion yen in
overseas equities in the week ended Feb. 28. That is the second
largest amount of weekly net purchases of foreign shares by
Japanese investors, based on Japanese Finance Ministry data going
back to 2005, and also marks the 15th straight week of net
purchases. Japan's service sector contracted in February after
expanding in the previous month, results of a survey by Markit
Economics showed. The services purchasing managers' index, or PMI,
fell to 48.5 in February from 51.3 in January. This marked a
moderate rate of decline in service sector activity. The monetary base
in Japan spiked 36.7 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan
said, coming in at 275.261 trillion yen. Banknotes in circulation
added 3.7 percent on year, while coins in circulation added 0.8
percent. Current account balances climbed 63.6 percent, including a
64.6 percent spike in reserve balances. Technically market is under
fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.1%
to settled at 12766 while prices down -0.3 rupee, now JPYINR is
getting support at 51.9 and below same could see a test of 51.7525
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 52.2475, a move
above could see prices testing 52.4475.
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
%
RE
VOL
OI
52.30
52.30
51.95
51.98
-0.57
-0.30
21,439
12766
R1
R2
52.20
52.43
R3
52.6
PP
52.1
S1
S2
S3
51.9
51.73
51.51
Trading Ideas :
#
#
#
#
#
#
JPYINR trading range for the day is 51.73-52.43.
JPY seen under pressure as firmness in dollar weighed, though downside seen limited on safe-haven demand for yen after China's downgrade of its growth outlook.
Japan's weekly portfolio flow data released overnight supports our case for outflows from Japanese investors to weaken the JPY this year.
BOJ's Kiuchi: Fiscal consolidation extremely important for QQE exit, sees concern of higher risk BOJ perceived financing debt.
RBI Reference Rate for JPYINR was 51.89 vs 51.89.
SELL JPYINR @ 52.30 SL 52.60 TGT 52.05-51.85.
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
Page
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
5
No
SPREAD MATRIX FOR USDINR
MONTH
RATE
MAR
62.48
APR
62.89
MAY
63.24
MAR
SPREAD MATRIX FOR EURINR
MAY
MONTH
RATE
0.76
MAR
69.10
0.34
APR
69.54
-3.00
MAY
70.00
-5.00
SPREAD MATRIX FOR GBPINR
MONTH
RATE
MAR
MAR
95.30
APR
95.89
-3.00
MAY
96.55
-5.00
MAY
MONTH
RATE
0.588
1.25
MAR
51.98
0.66
APR
52.30
MAY
52.65
INR
U.S. $
APR
0.44
MAY
0.90
0.47
SPREAD MATRIX FOR JPYINR
APR
MAJOR CURRENCY CROSS RATES
Last Trade
MAR
APR
0.415
Euro €
U.K. £
￥en
MAR
APR
0.31
MAY
0.67
0.35
RBI Reference Rate
1 INR
=
-
0.0160
0.0148
0.0106
1.9336
Date
1 U.S. $
=
62.450
-
0.9221
0.6637
120.960
USD
62.202
62.202
1 Euro €
=
67.730
1.0841
-
0.7198
131.14
EURO
68.602
68.602
1 U.K. £
=
94.034
1.5061
1.3890
-
182.19
YEN
51.890
51.890
1 ￥en
=
0.5163
0.0083
0.7625
0.0055
-
GBP
94.714
94.714
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
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Contact Us
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
Head Office
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
Currency Desk
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Phone:022- 66351234 Ext 239 .
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other
reliable sources believed to be true and is for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and
completeness of information contained, the company makes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the
information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. LKP Securities Ltd., and affiliates,
including the analyst who have issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions
in, and buy or sell the Currencies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such Currencies and earn brokerage
or compensation or act as advisor or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to company/ies mentioned herein or
inconsistent with any recommendation and related information and opinions. LKP Securities Ltd., and affiliates may seek to provide or
have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the
companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.
LKP SECURITIES LIMITED
13th Floor Raheja Center,
Free Press Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai-400021
Page No
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