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Contents
Update of Indonesia’s GHG
Abatement Cost Cuve:
LULUCF and Peat
Farhan Helmy
International Workshop on Forest Carbon Emission
Jakarta, 3-5 March 2015
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Outline
Background and Context
Update on LULUCF and peat
emissions
2030 GHG emission outlook
Emission abatement opportunities
1
GHG Abatement Cost Curve was build in the context of the need of a
fact based assessment to encourage low emission development
scenarios

Fact-based assessment and exercises at national and sub-national
level
• Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR, Bappenas, 2009)
• Green Paper: Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategies for Climate Change
Mitigation in Indonesia, Ministry of Finance (2009)
• Indonesia’s GHG Abatement Cost Curve (DNPI, 2010)
• Low Carbon Growth Strategy (LCGS) at Provincial Level (DNPI, 2010)
• Low Carbon Development Options (DNPI, MoF and the World Bank, 2010)
• Urban LEDS (ICLEI, UNDP)

National Policy Framework and Achievements
• National and Regional Action Plans (RAN/RAD GRK)
• National GHG Inventory System (SIGN)
• Climate Financing and Investment: Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund
(ICCTF), 2009; Fiscal instrument to support GHG Emission Reduction
implementation at national/sub-national level, 2012; ther climate financing and
investment (JCM, PMR, underway)
–2
Technical team: Farhan Helmy (ICCC), Titi Panjaitan, Dicky Edwin Hindarto, Widiatmini
Sih Winanti, Muhammad Farid, Doddy S. Sukadri, Dewi Aprianti, Jannata
Giwangkara, Emod Tri Utomo (DNPI), Jun Ichihara, Bramantyo Dewantoputra, Astri
Indirawati (JICA).
For information and input on the LULUCF and peatland sectors: Yetti Rusli, Ruandha
Agung Sugardiman, Haryo P (MOF), Rhesa Darojat (MOE), Nirartha Samadhi, Adi
Pradana, Listya Kusumawati, Dieni Ulya (UKP4), Umiyatun Hayati Triastuti, Budhi
Setiawan (Bappenas), Mukti Sardjono, Mazwar (MOA), Budi Situmorang, Putri Nurul P
(PU), Erna Sri A (LAPAN), Surahman, Iin Herawati (BPN), Arif R (ICRAF), Henky Satrio
(AMAN), Hultera (WWF), Marissa Malahayati (CCROM SEAP IPB), Eddy S (APHI), Eka
Melisa (SKPPI), Farhan Helmy, Dadang Hilman (ICCC), Agus Purnomo, Muhammad
Farid, Ari Mochammad, Doddy S. Sukadri (DNPI).
For information and input on the power sector: Arie Pujiwati, Aries Z, Gita
Lestari, Hermawan, Hery Nursito, Junifer S, Ilham Rakhman, Tedi Yunanto, Yogi Alwenda
(ESDM), Paul Butarbutar (MOF), Ridwan Djamaluddin, Laode M. Abdul Wahid, Ira
Fitriana, Wahyu Purwanta (BPPT), Diana Rosdiana (DEN), Amna A, Ishak
Burhani, Kamia Handayani (PLN), Asclepias Rachmi, Azis Pusakantara (IIEE), Jon
Respati, D.A. Purbasari (Surya University), Fabby Tumiwa (IESR), Surya Darma, Ananda
Setiyo Ivannanto, Andhika Prastawa (METI), Verenia Andria (UNDP), Takeshi Enoki
(MUFG), Rob Daniel, Tim Boothman (PWC), Leela Raina (Strategic Asia), Artissa
Panjaitan (ICCC), Widiatmini Sih Winanti, Moekti Soejachmoen, Dicky Edwin Hindarto
(DNPI), Arief Sugiyanto (PLN).
For information and input on the road transport sector:Tonny AS, Fahni
Mauludi, Mohammad Malawat (MOT), Budi Prasetyo Susilo, Freddy A. Sutrisno
(GAIKINDO), Yusa Cahya (MTI), Agus Salim Suseno (PT Honda Prospect Motor).
3
Emission Projection 2010
www.iccc-network.net
4
Emission Reduction Potentials 2010
www.iccc-network.net
5
UPDATE ON BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FIGURES
Much new research and reports have been published since the GHG
Cost Curve report was released in 2009
The Government of Indonesia issued
several reports related to climate
change…
…while national and international publications have been
advancing the methodology for carbon calculations
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Environment; BAPPENAS; UKP4; DNPI; Journals and publications; Team analysis
–6
LULUCF and Peat remain the largest source of emission in the next
decade
Indonesian emissions are estimated to grow from 1.6
to 2.6 GtCO2e between 2010 and 2030
Projected emissions1, Million tons CO2e
2,609
75
108
151
232
+68%
1,846
1,577
26
136
105
25
45
143
104
145
31
1,011
38
Buildings
Cement
Petroleum and gas Indonesia has the potential to
up to 1.2 Gt per year by 2030
Agriculture
Societal perspective1, 2030
Transport
Reduction cost2
Power
USD per tCO e
reduce CO2 emissions by
2
72
389
227
Solar PV Biomass dedicated
Grassland
management
100
Small hydro
0
986
990
995
0
LULUCF & Peat2
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
-100
-150
2010
2020
2030
-200
3%
4%
-250
Share of global emissions3
1 Includes only direct emissions from each sector
2 Emissions from LULUCF are based on a net emission approach i.e., including absorption
3 Based on 2011 estimates showing global emissions at 51.7 Gt and 67.6 Gt in 2010 and 2030, respectively
-450
Peat
management
Improve
community
practices
Afforestation/
reforestation
-350
-400
1,200
1,300
Nuclear
Clinker
substitution
Sustainable
by Slag
logging
practice
-300
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
1,100
Large hydro
Degraded land restoration
Co-generation - downstream
Geothermal
Fire
prevention
on mineral
soils
Spatial
planning
Appliances - refrigerators, commercial
Passenger Vehicle gasoline Bundle 4
Two Wheeler Electric
1 Societal perspective implies utilizing a 4% discount rate
2. The width of each bar represents the volume of potential reduction. The height of each bar represents the cost to capture each reduction initiative
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Ministry of Environment; BAPPENAS; UKP4; DNPI; Journals and publications; Team analysis
–7
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
Indonesia’s deforestation shows a declining trend since 1996
Annual deforestation rate, 1992 - 20131
In million hectares
4.1
2.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
Between
1992-96
Between
1996-2000
Between
2000-03
Between
2003-06
Between
2006-09
0.6
Between
2009-13
1 Only spatial map in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2013 available; the deforestation rate is assumed constant in between
the two data points available
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land cover maps; Team analysis
8
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
Indonesia’s deforestation shows a declining trend has since 1996
Deforested area
1992 –
1996
deforest
ation
1992 –
2000
deforest
ation
1992 –
2003
deforest
ation
1992 –
2006
deforest
ation
1992 –
2009
deforest
ation
1992 –
2013
deforest
ation
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land cover maps; Team analysis
Forest area
9
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
Land cover change analysis shows that more than 50% of
deforestation is results in degraded land
Forest cover change to other land cover, 2000-09
Total area = 6.5 million ha
Others
10%
Agriculture
15%
13%
Estate crops
1% Mining
9%
53%
Shrubland
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Team analysis
Plantation forest
0%
 53% of deforested
area is converted into
shrub, which does not
give significant impact
to economic
development
 The degraded areas
should be made
available for green
development and
community
development
programs
Settlement
10
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
We estimate 13 million ha forests are at risk of planned deforestation
and forest degradation
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry 2009; WRI 2010; Team analysis
11
UPDATE ON LULUCF AND PEAT EMISSIONS – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
~40% of Indonesia’s peatland area is assigned as APL and HPK, which
puts ~6 mn ha under threat of conversion
XX Share of total, Percent
Peat soil distribution
Peat area, million hectares
Under threat of degradation
Under threat of conversion
Under threat of
degradation
Under threat of
conversion
14.9
3.5
2.4
4.2
3.0
1.8
Protected area
HPT
HP
HPK
APL
20
12
28
16
23
SOURCE: Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Ministry of Forestry land use map; Team analysis
Total
12
UPDATE ON MORATORIUM – CARBON STOCK ABOVE GROUND
The Moratorium puts ~48 mn ha of forests and peatland under
protection, of which ~6 mn ha is under serious risk of being converted
1 Assuming moratorium policy is well-implemented and enforced
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry; Team analysis
13
UPDATE ON MORATORIUM – CARBON STOCK BELOW GROUND
Current moratorium protects ~4.8 mn ha of peat from being converted
into land-use related activities
Peat area protected from
further conversion
In million hectares
7.8
Total area = 4.8 million hectares
3.0
Moratorium
0.9
7.8
1.4
1.7
0.9
Total
Protected
area
HPT
0.0
0.9
HP
HPK
APL
Peat soil
7.1
Outside
moratorium
2.8
7.1
0.8
2.6
Total
Protected
area
SOURCE: Ministry of Forestry land use map; Ministry of Agriculture peatland map; Team analysis
HPT
HP
HPK
APL
14
Six abatement opportunities should be prioritized (548 MtCO2e by 2030
1 Spatial planning and land use
optimization (134 MtCO2e)
Classify high-carbon forest and
peatland into conservation area,
and subsequently release lowcarbon stock area for economic
activities
4 Sustainable logging
practices (48 MtCO2e)
Reduce forest degradation through
RIL and enrichment planting
practices, and reduce the need for
plantation expansion through yield
improvement
134 MtCO2e
2 Forest and peat moratorium
(91 MtCO2e)
Extend forest and peat
moratorium to indefinite time to
protect HCV areas
3 Peatland management
(141 MtCO2e)
Slow the emission from degraded
peatlands by re-wetting or replanting damaged areas and by
establishing a fire management
system
5 Improvement in local
community practices
(76 MtCO2e)
Reduce slash&burn by providing
land) tenure, livelihood training,
education and awareness, and
disincentives for forest clearance
6 Afforestation and
reforestation (54 MtCO2e )
Conduct reforestation in lessattractive areas for longterm, permanent carbon sink
15
EMISSION ABATEMENT OPPORTUNITIES
548 MtCO2e could be abated in 2030 by implementation of 6 different
abatement levers
Societal perspective; 2030
Abatement cost
USD per tCO2e
High estimate
Low estimate
50
45
40
Peat
management
35
Spatial planning
and land use
optimization
Afforestation
/reforestation
30
25
Improve
community
practices
Sustainable logging
practice
20
Forest and peat
moratorium
15
10
5
0-3
0
3
0
0
20
40
60
10 - 15
5 - 10
0-5
0-5
0-5
5
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
5
10
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560
Abatement potential
MtCO2e per year
Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tCO2e if each
lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4%
societal discount rate
SOURCE: Team analysis
THANK YOU!
–17