Final Bell UBS sales commentary, not research, for Australian equity market investors published by 5pm. Wednesday 11th March 2015 UBS Institutional Equities Desk Not for distribution directly/indirectly into the US or to any US person or any person acting for the account or benefit of a US person; Canada; Japan; and/or Brazil. 1 Overview The ASX200 index slipped below the 5800 mark in a quiet day in terms of corporate news flow, with BHP Billiton (BHP) weighing most on the market after trading ex-dividend. Ardent Leisure Group (AAD) was the worst performing stock in the index, losing 19.1% after announcing the resignation of long-serving CEO Greg Shaw, who has now been replaced by ex-magazine editor Ms Deborah Thomas. Continued weakness in key commodity markets overnight continued to weigh on performance in the materials sector. Rio Tinto (RIO) lost 1.2% and gold stocks OceanaGold (OGC) and Newcrest Mining (NCM) slumped 4.6% and 1.1% as the gold price hit a fresh three month low overnight. Latest short interest data shows that over the week to 4 March, short interest in iron ore producers Fortescue (FMG) and Mount Gibson (MGX) jumped 470/620bps to 20.7/11.9%% of shares respectively. Structural headwinds persist in the iron ore market and it remains our least preferred commodity exposure. While we have cut our Mineral Resources (MIN) earnings forecasts by between 3-7% following downward revisions to our iron ore price forecasts by our global commodities team, we have upgraded our rating to Neutral from Sell following recent share price weakness. We continue to view MIN as a well-managed business, however the near term outlook for its iron ore operations is challenged. Crown Resorts (CWN) has lost -8.0% this week-to-date and appears oversold. We continue to rate the stock as a Buy with our $18.45/share price target implying ~30% upside potential from current levels. 2 Macro Releases 3 Research Released Intraday 4 Research Released Overnight Consumer sentiment eases, but after post-RBA rebound (Haslem & Tharenou, Australian Economics) - RBA's rate cut has helped stabilise consumer sentiment. Home loans continue their moderating trend. None. CSL Limited (CSL) - We attend EU Plasma Jamboree – Competitive but stable (Goodsall). Fonterra (FSF.NZ) - Low-risk contamination threat to infant formula products (Curley). Mineral Resources (MIN) - Further cuts to ore price forecasts, but can MIN get mono from monorail? (Sundram). Australian Media - TV Matters: Seven seasonally strong in Feb-15 (Eary). Iron Ore - Limboing under the iron ore price (Lawcock). Global Iron Ore - Iron ore: China steel market ex-growth (Morgan). Australian Insurance - When the tide drifts out (Coghill). 5 Stock Movements 1 ASX 100 Advances = WFD, AWC, EGP, CSR, TTS, ALL, APA, SYD, FXJ, PRY. ASX 100 Declines = BHP, ALQ, CWN, MND, FMG, LLC, LEI, HGG, MIN, WOR. 6 Tomorrow's Events & Upcoming Dividends Stock: Regis Resources (RRL) – 1H Result. Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: Automotive Holdings Group (AHE): 12-Mar, 9c, 100% Franked. Austal (ASB): 12-Mar, 1c, 100% Franked. iiNet Limited (IIN): 12-Mar, 10.5c, 100% Franked. Intueri Education Group (IQE): 12Mar, 7.3663c, 0% Franked. Vita Group (VTG): 12-Mar, 7.12c, 100% Franked. Adelaide Brighton (ABC): 13-Mar, 9.5c, 100% Franked. Cash Converters (CCV): 13-Mar, 2c, 100% Franked. Fantastic Holdings (FAN): 13-Mar, 10c, 100% Franked. Grange Resources (GRR): 13-Mar, 1c, 0% Franked. Nuplex Industries (NPX): 13-Mar, 8.1928c, 0% Franked. Spotless Group Holdings (SPO): 13-Mar, 4.5c, 0% Franked. Tassal Group (TGR): 13-Mar, 7c, 50% Franked. Breville Group (BRG): 16-Mar, 14c, 100% Franked. CSL Limited (CSL): 16-Mar, 74.385c, 0% Franked. IOOF Holdings (IFL): 16Mar, 25c, 100% Franked. Leighton Holdings (LEI): 16-Mar, 68c, 100% Franked. Skilled Group (SKE): 16-Mar, 7.5c, 100% Franked. Village Roadshow (VRL): 16-Mar, 14c, 100% Franked. Auckland International Airport (AIA): 17-Mar, 7.0777c, 0% Franked. Burson Group (BAP): 17Mar, 4c, 100% Franked. Ausdrill (ASL): 18-Mar, 1c, 100% Franked. Cardno (CDD): 18-Mar, 13c, 100% Franked. Mineral Resources (MIN): 18-Mar, 7.5c, 100% Franked. Primary Health Care (PRY): 18-Mar, 9c, 100% Franked. Retail Food Group (RFG): 18-Mar, 11.5c, 100% Franked. Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC): 18-Mar, 8.0699c, 25% Franked. SMS Management & Technology (SMX): 18-Mar, 7c, 100% Franked. Woolworths (WOW): 18-Mar, 67c, 100% Franked. McPherson's (MCP): 19-Mar, 6c, 100% Franked. The Reject Shop (TRS): 19-Mar, 16.5c, 100% Franked. Macro: None. ASX200 – Intraday chart Source: Iress S&P / ASX Index Close +/- Chg % Chg S&P / ASX Index Close +/- Chg % Chg ASX 200 5,793 -31.0 -0.5% Small Ords 2,152 -14.1 -0.7% $21.65 -$0.18 -0.8% UBS IQ Research ETF $22.23 -$0.12 -0.5% UBS IQ Research DIV ASX 200 Energy 11,111 -102.6 -0.9% ASX 200 Financials 6,866 -9.0 -0.1% ASX 200 Materials 9,096 -243.4 -2.6% ASX 200 REITs 1,303 17.0 1.3% ASX 200 Industrial 4,588 -0.9 0.0% ASX 200 Info Tech 843 -0.1 0.0% ASX 200 Discretionary 1,946 -9.1 -0.5% ASX 200 Telecoms 2,175 7.2 0.3% ASX 200 Staples 9,261 -20.5 -0.2% ASX 200 Utilities 6,567 43.8 0.7% 19,306 -117.5 -0.6% ASX 200 HealthCare 2 Total Traded Volume (m) 1,435 Total Traded Value ($m) 3,819 * The UBS IQ Research Preferred ETF tracks a portfolio of UBS BUY-rated Australian securities and trades on the ASX under the ticker code “ETF.AXW ”. ** The UBS IQ Research Preferred Dividend ETF tracks a portfolio of high yielding Australian securities and trades on the ASX under the ticker code “DIV.AXW ”. 1. Overview ASX200 fell below the 5800 level… BHP traded ex-div and weighed most on the index. - Local shares followed offshore markets into negative territory with BHP Billiton (BHP -5.0% $30.33) weighing most on the ASX200 index after trading ex-dividend. On the domestic economic front, consumer sentiment (as measured by Westpac/Melbourne Institute) fell -1.2% month-on-month to 99.5pts in February, to a level now only marginally below average. Elsewhere, ’time to buy a dwelling’ has fallen to a bit below average. Positively however, unemployment expectations improved again to the best level since 2013. In other news, total home loan values (ex-refis) retraced -1.2% month-on-month in January, with the year-on-year rate continuing to moderate, implying slower house price growth ahead. Overall, the RBA's February rate cut (coupled with the prior fall in petrol prices) helped stabilise the trend of consumer sentiment near average, and hence suggests ongoing solid real consumption growth. Consumer sentiment: Total home loan values: Miners were the worst performing… FMG & MGX are heavily shorted. - Continued weakness in key commodity markets overnight continued to weigh on performance in the materials sector. BHP Billiton (BHP -5.0% $30.33) ended the day 5.0% weaker, Rio Tinto (RIO $57.87) lost 1.2% and gold stocks OceanaGold (OGC $2.10) and Newcrest Mining (NCM $12.29) slumped 4.5% and 1.0% as the gold price hit a fresh three month low overnight. Latest short interest data shows that over the five days to 4 March, short interest in iron ore producers Fortescue (FMG -3.5% $1.95) and Mount Gibson (MGX +2.3% $0.22) jumped 470/620bps to 20.7/11.9%% of shares respectively. Structural headwinds persist in the iron ore market and it remains our least preferred commodity exposure. In a relative sense, we think the best placed exposures will be those with high quality ore delivered at a low cost to China. Consequently, we prefer low-cost diversified producers BHP and RIO. The chart below provides a comparison of our breakeven analysis of each of the iron ore producers globally (that are under coverage). Evidently, as the iron ore price has continued to track lower there has been a significant improvement in breakeven levels for the majority of producers since October. Break-even cost position of major producers (US$/dmt cfr 62% Fe): 3 AAD fell -19% following the resignation of long-serving CEO Greg Shaw. - Ardent Leisure Group (AAD $1.97) was the worst performing stock in the ASX200, losing 19.1% after announcing the resignation of long-serving CEO Greg Shaw, who will no longer be a director of the company with immediate effect. AAD has appointed ex-magazine editor Ms Deborah Thomas to take over as CEO. Most stocks in the energy sector followed the oil price lower… OSH & DLS outperformed. - Ongoing weakness in the oil price saw most stocks in the energy sector continue to lose strength. Santos (STO $7.33), which is the most leveraged to the oil price movement among the large caps ended the day unchanged while Senex Energy (SXY $0.32) and Karoon (KAR $2.31) lost 3.0% and 3.8% respectively. Drillsearch (DLS $1.09) and Oil Search (OSH $7.80) outperformed, edging up 8.5% and 1.3% respectively. We continue to rate NEC and SWM as Buys… TEN remains a fundamental SELL. - Latest ratings share data shows Seven (SWM -5.2% $1.46) claimed the #1 ratings crown in February with total people share up 80bps year-on-year to 42.2%, and won in all key demographics. Nine (NEC +0.5% $2.08) share was flat at 35.4% while Ten's (TEN +2.2% $0.24) total people share declined -80bps to 22.4%. NEC and SWM remain our key picks amongst the TV exposures, and we continue to rate TEN as a fundamental Sell excluding potential M&A upside. We neutralised our call on MIN following recent share price weakness. - We have lowered our FY15-17 operational earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources (MIN -2.2% $6.70) by between 3-7% following downward revisions to our iron ore price forecasts by our global commodities team reflecting a reduction in global steel production forecasts. Additionally, we have upgraded our MIN rating to Neutral from Sell following recent share price weakness. Since the start of 2015, MIN has lost ~10% while the ASX200 index has climbed ~8%, and MIN is now trading broadly in line with our revised valuation and price target of $6.80/share. We continue to view MIN as a well-managed business with exposure to long term growth in domestic iron ore production. However, the near term outlook for its iron ore operations is challenged given the current weak pricing environment. CWN has sold off aggressively over the past few sessions… Presents a buying opportunity. - Crown Resorts (CWN -3.7% $14.18) appears oversold (-8.0% week-to-date) with investor concerns focused on MPEL's recent heavy weakness and the subdued revenue outlook in Macau. While we expect an ongoing subdued revenue outlook in Macau throughout 2015, we continue to rate the stock as a Buy on valuation grounds with the jewel in the company's portfolio, Crown Melbourne, continuing to perform exceptionally well. Our $18.45/share price target implies ~30% upside potential from current levels. Additionally, our longer term forecasts currently do not incorporate potential upside from Crown Sydney (in Barangaroo) from FY20/21+, the proposed Las Vegas development or the potential Queens Wharf casino redevelopment in Brisbane. Latest short interest data shows short interest increasing in FLT & PRY… decreasing in MTS & COH. - Latest short interest data shows the following key changes over the week to 4 March: ASX 100 Top 3 Increase in Short - FMG, FLT, PRY Top 3 Decrease in Short - MTS, COH, CAR Top 5 Short Stocks - FMG 20.7%, FLT 15.4%, MTS 13.2%, MIN 12.4%, PRY 11.1% Top Sector Short: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology ASX Small Ordinaries 4 Top 3 Increase in Short - MGX, NWH, SXY Top 3 Decrease in Short - EVN, NXT, VET Top 5 Short Stocks - MYR 19.0%, WHC 13.7%, KAR 12.3%, AGO 12.0%, MGX 11.9% [Back to top] 2. Macro Releases Consumer sentiment eases, but after post-RBA rebound (Haslem & Tharenou, Australian Economics) Mar consumer sentiment -1% m/m to 99.5, but after 8% rebound post RBA cut Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment retraced only modestly as expected, down by 1.2% m/m to 99.5 in February, partly offsetting an 8.0% m/m rebound to 100.7 in February after the RBA's 25bp rate cut. Consumer sentiment is now marginally below average, but now flat y/y. Elsewhere, ’time to buy a dwelling’ has fallen to a bit below average. Positively however, unemployment expectations improved again, to the best (i.e. lowest) level since 2013. Separately, 'the wisest place for savings' showed attitudes towards repaying debt/mortgage became a bit more cautious than a year ago, but the household saving rate continues to fall. Jan home loans retrace 1.2% m/m (after 4.8% rebound), but still a slower trend Total home loan values (ex-refis) retraced by 1.2% m/m in January, albeit after rebounding 4.8% m/m to a record high level. But, the trend continues to moderate, with the y/y slowing to 9.6%. The m/m fall was driven by owner-occupiers, across both established and new. Investors were flat, with a retracement in new offsetting the ongoing boom of investors buying established . Meanwhile, total construction loans dropped back, albeit the trend is still at a cycle high. Elsewhere, the 1st home-owner share fell further towards a record low at just 8.3% in January. For owner-occupiers only, NSW remains on the strongest up-trend among major States. Implications: RBA's rate cut helps stabilise consumer sentiment near average Overall, the RBA's February rate cut (coupled by the prior fall in petrol prices) helped stabilise the trend of consumer sentiment near average, and hence suggests ongoing solid real consumption growth – broadly consistent with our view. Meanwhile, home loans continued their moderating trend, implying slower house price growth ahead – but this pre-dates a likely boost from the RBA's Feb cut. [CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL REPORT] [Back to top] 3. UBS Research Released Intraday None. 5 4. UBS Research Released Overnight CSL Limited (CSL) - We attend EU Plasma Jamboree – Competitive but stable (Goodsall) Rating: Buy (unchanged) Price Target: $96 (unchanged) Fonterra Shareholders' Fund (NS) (FSF.NZ) - Low-risk contamination threat to infant formula products (Curley) Rating: Neutral (unchanged) Price Target: $NZ$6.65 (unchanged) Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) - Further cuts to ore price forecasts, but can MIN get mono from monorail? (Sundram) Rating: Neutral (prior Sell) Price Target: $6.8 (prior $7) Media - TV Matters: Seven seasonally strong in Feb-15 (Eary) Rating: N/A (unchanged) Price Target: $N/A (unchanged) Iron Ore - Limboing under the iron ore price (Lawcock) Rating: N/A (unchanged) Price Target: $N/A (unchanged) Global Iron Ore - Iron ore: China steel market ex-growth (Morgan) Rating: N/A (unchanged) Price Target: $N/A (unchanged) Insurance - When the tide drifts out (Coghill) Rating: N/A Price Target: N/A [CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL REPORTS OF UBS RESEARCH RELEASED OVERNIGHT] [CLICK HERE TO RESET YOUR UBS RESEARCHWEB PASSWORD] [Back to top] 5. Stock Movements ASX 100 Top 10 - Advances ASX 100 Top 10 - Declines Change Close Price Code Company Name Change Close Price BHP Billiton Limited -5.0% $30.33 ALQ Als Ltd -4.1% $5.21 $4.51 CWN Crown Resorts Ltd -3.7% $14.18 2.3% $3.97 MND Monadelphous Group -3.6% $8.48 Tatts Group Ltd 2.1% $3.99 FMG Fortescue Metals Grp -3.5% $1.95 ALL Aristocrat Leisure 1.9% $7.39 LLC Lend Lease Group -2.5% $16.21 APA APA Group 1.8% $8.99 LEI Leighton Holdings -2.4% $21.27 SYD SYD Airport 1.8% $5.24 HGG Henderson Group -2.3% $5.20 FXJ Fairfax Media Ltd 1.6% $0.95 MIN Mineral Resources. -2.2% $6.70 PRY Primary Health Care 1.4% $5.03 WOR WorleyParsons Ltd -1.9% $9.22 Code Company Name WFD Westfield Corp 3.6% $9.86 BHP AWC Alumina Limited 3.5% $1.78 EGP Echo Entertainment 2.5% CSR CSR Limited TTS ASX Small Ords Top 10 - Advances ASX Small Ords Top 10 - Declines Code Company Name Change Close Price Code Company Name Change Close Price DLS Drillsearch Energy 8.5% $1.09 AAD Ardent Leisure Group -19.1% $1.97 HZN Horizon Oil Limited 7.7% $0.14 RSG Resolute Mining -9.4% $0.24 API Australian Pharm. 6.5% $1.49 ACR Acrux Limited -7.4% $0.76 HIL Hills Ltd 6.0% $0.97 PRU Perseus Mining Ltd -7.0% $0.27 SRX Sirtex Medical 4.2% $37.58 SPL Starpharma Holdings -7.0% $0.47 VOC Vocus Comms Ltd 4.0% $5.72 VET Vocation Ltd -6.5% $0.07 6 RIC Ridley Corporation 3.9% $1.06 KCN Kingsgate Consolid. -6.4% $0.66 EVN Evolution Mining Ltd 3.8% $0.82 TGS Tiger Resources -6.0% $0.06 DCG Decmil Group Limited 3.0% $1.19 BDR Beadell Resource Ltd -5.8% $0.25 MVF Monash Ivf Group Ltd 2.9% $1.44 SEA Sundance Energy -5.6% $0.51 ASX 100 Heavy Volume Code FMG BPT Company Name Fortescue Metals Grp Beach Energy Limited NWS News Corp TWE Treasury Wine Estate ARI Arrium Ltd BHP MND BHP Billiton Limited Monadelphous Group Today's Vol ('000) Closing Price % of ADV 49,455 $1.95 14,090 ASX Small Ords Heavy Volume Code Company Name Today's Vol ('000) Closing Price % of ADV 256% ABY #N/A 4,634 $0.18 961% $1.00 222% POH Phosphagenics Ltd. 2,878 $0.05 555% 618 $21.07 222% MNC Metminco Limited 31,651 $0.01 515% 7,396 $5.10 202% AAD 22,567 $1.97 445% 28,394 $0.18 192% EVR 1,116 $0.55 418% 12,554 $30.33 159% OGC OceanaGold Corp. 1,008 $2.10 254% 1,101 $8.48 151% BKN Bradken Limited 2,913 $1.83 243% 490 $0.77 221% Ardent Leisure Group Endeavour Min Corp AGO Atlas Iron Limited 8,125 $0.15 150% UNS Unilife Corporation PDN Paladin Energy Ltd 9,545 $0.36 148% ASL Ausdrill Limited 2,660 $0.37 219% LEI Leighton Holdings 725 $21.27 147% TRY Troy Resources Ltd 1,990 $0.43 214% [Back to top] 6. Tomorrow's Events & Upcoming Dividends Stock Events Code IssuerName Event UBS Comment None. Macro Events Country Event UBS Comment None. Ex-Dividend Ex-Date Code Dividend Amount Franking 12-Mar AHE 9c 100% 12-Mar ASB 1c 100% 12-Mar IIN 10.5c 100% 12-Mar IQE 7.3663c 0% 12-Mar VTG 7.12c 100% 13-Mar ABC 9.5c 100% 13-Mar CCV 2c 100% 13-Mar FAN 10c 100% 13-Mar GRR 1c 0% 13-Mar NPX 8.1928c 0% 13-Mar SPO 4.5c 0% 13-Mar TGR 7c 50% 16-Mar BRG 14c 100% 7 16-Mar CSL 74.385c 0% 16-Mar IFL 25c 100% 16-Mar LEI 68c 100% 16-Mar SKE 7.5c 100% 16-Mar VRL 14c 100% 17-Mar AIA 7.0777c 0% 17-Mar BAP 4c 100% 18-Mar ASL 1c 100% 18-Mar CDD 13c 100% 18-Mar MIN 7.5c 100% 18-Mar PRY 9c 100% 18-Mar RFG 11.5c 100% 18-Mar SKC 8.0699c 25% 18-Mar SMX 7c 100% 18-Mar WOW 67c 100% 19-Mar MCP 6c 100% 19-Mar TRS 16.5c 100% **To see the Stock and Macro Events for the month ahead contact UBS** [Back to top] UBS Research Ratings and Price Targets AAD Neutral UBS PT $2.45 SWM Buy UBS PT $2.2 STO Buy UBS PT $9.5 NEC Buy UBS PT $2.4 TEN Sell UBS PT $0.15 MIN Neutral UBS PT $6.8 CWN Buy UBS PT $18.45 SALES AND TRADING DISCLAIMER When distributed to UBS clients, distributed by UBS Securities Australia Ltd ABN 62 008 586 481 (Holder of Australian Financial Services License No. 231098) or UBS Wealth Management Australia Limited ABN 50 005 311 937 (Holder of Australian Financial Services License No.231127) which is a subsidiary of UBS AG or otherwise, distributed by UBS AG (Holder of Australian Financial Services License No. 231087) and/or Affiliates (“collectively “UBS”). 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