Final Bell
UBS sales commentary, not research, for Australian equity market investors published by 5pm.
Wednesday 11th March 2015
UBS Institutional Equities Desk
Not for distribution directly/indirectly into the US or to any US person or any person acting for the account or benefit of a US person; Canada; Japan; and/or Brazil.
1
Overview
The ASX200 index slipped below the 5800 mark in a quiet day in terms of corporate news flow, with
BHP Billiton (BHP) weighing most on the market after trading ex-dividend. Ardent Leisure Group
(AAD) was the worst performing stock in the index, losing 19.1% after announcing the resignation of
long-serving CEO Greg Shaw, who has now been replaced by ex-magazine editor Ms Deborah Thomas.
Continued weakness in key commodity markets overnight continued to weigh on performance in the
materials sector. Rio Tinto (RIO) lost 1.2% and gold stocks OceanaGold (OGC) and Newcrest Mining
(NCM) slumped 4.6% and 1.1% as the gold price hit a fresh three month low overnight. Latest short
interest data shows that over the week to 4 March, short interest in iron ore producers Fortescue (FMG)
and Mount Gibson (MGX) jumped 470/620bps to 20.7/11.9%% of shares respectively. Structural
headwinds persist in the iron ore market and it remains our least preferred commodity exposure.
While we have cut our Mineral Resources (MIN) earnings forecasts by between 3-7% following
downward revisions to our iron ore price forecasts by our global commodities team, we have upgraded
our rating to Neutral from Sell following recent share price weakness. We continue to view MIN as a
well-managed business, however the near term outlook for its iron ore operations is challenged.
Crown Resorts (CWN) has lost -8.0% this week-to-date and appears oversold. We continue to rate the
stock as a Buy with our $18.45/share price target implying ~30% upside potential from current levels.
2
Macro Releases
3
Research Released Intraday
4
Research Released Overnight
Consumer sentiment eases, but after post-RBA rebound (Haslem & Tharenou, Australian
Economics) - RBA's rate cut has helped stabilise consumer sentiment. Home loans continue their
moderating trend.
None.
CSL Limited (CSL) - We attend EU Plasma Jamboree – Competitive but stable (Goodsall).
Fonterra (FSF.NZ) - Low-risk contamination threat to infant formula products (Curley).
Mineral Resources (MIN) - Further cuts to ore price forecasts, but can MIN get mono from monorail?
(Sundram).
Australian Media - TV Matters: Seven seasonally strong in Feb-15 (Eary).
Iron Ore - Limboing under the iron ore price (Lawcock).
Global Iron Ore - Iron ore: China steel market ex-growth (Morgan).
Australian Insurance - When the tide drifts out (Coghill).
5
Stock Movements
1
ASX 100 Advances = WFD, AWC, EGP, CSR, TTS, ALL, APA, SYD, FXJ, PRY.
ASX 100 Declines = BHP, ALQ, CWN, MND, FMG, LLC, LEI, HGG, MIN, WOR.
6
Tomorrow's Events & Upcoming Dividends
Stock:
Regis Resources (RRL) – 1H Result.
Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates:
Automotive Holdings Group (AHE): 12-Mar, 9c, 100% Franked. Austal (ASB): 12-Mar, 1c, 100%
Franked. iiNet Limited (IIN): 12-Mar, 10.5c, 100% Franked. Intueri Education Group (IQE): 12Mar, 7.3663c, 0% Franked. Vita Group (VTG): 12-Mar, 7.12c, 100% Franked. Adelaide Brighton
(ABC): 13-Mar, 9.5c, 100% Franked. Cash Converters (CCV): 13-Mar, 2c, 100% Franked. Fantastic
Holdings (FAN): 13-Mar, 10c, 100% Franked. Grange Resources (GRR): 13-Mar, 1c, 0% Franked.
Nuplex Industries (NPX): 13-Mar, 8.1928c, 0% Franked. Spotless Group Holdings (SPO): 13-Mar,
4.5c, 0% Franked. Tassal Group (TGR): 13-Mar, 7c, 50% Franked. Breville Group (BRG): 16-Mar,
14c, 100% Franked. CSL Limited (CSL): 16-Mar, 74.385c, 0% Franked. IOOF Holdings (IFL): 16Mar, 25c, 100% Franked. Leighton Holdings (LEI): 16-Mar, 68c, 100% Franked. Skilled Group
(SKE): 16-Mar, 7.5c, 100% Franked. Village Roadshow (VRL): 16-Mar, 14c, 100% Franked.
Auckland International Airport (AIA): 17-Mar, 7.0777c, 0% Franked. Burson Group (BAP): 17Mar, 4c, 100% Franked. Ausdrill (ASL): 18-Mar, 1c, 100% Franked. Cardno (CDD): 18-Mar, 13c,
100% Franked. Mineral Resources (MIN): 18-Mar, 7.5c, 100% Franked. Primary Health Care
(PRY): 18-Mar, 9c, 100% Franked. Retail Food Group (RFG): 18-Mar, 11.5c, 100% Franked. Skycity
Entertainment Group (SKC): 18-Mar, 8.0699c, 25% Franked. SMS Management & Technology
(SMX): 18-Mar, 7c, 100% Franked. Woolworths (WOW): 18-Mar, 67c, 100% Franked.
McPherson's (MCP): 19-Mar, 6c, 100% Franked. The Reject Shop (TRS): 19-Mar, 16.5c, 100%
Franked.
Macro:
None.
ASX200 – Intraday chart
Source: Iress
S&P / ASX Index
Close
+/- Chg
% Chg
S&P / ASX Index
Close
+/- Chg
% Chg
ASX 200
5,793
-31.0
-0.5%
Small Ords
2,152
-14.1
-0.7%
$21.65
-$0.18
-0.8%
UBS IQ Research ETF
$22.23
-$0.12
-0.5%
UBS IQ Research
DIV
ASX 200 Energy
11,111
-102.6
-0.9%
ASX 200 Financials
6,866
-9.0
-0.1%
ASX 200 Materials
9,096
-243.4
-2.6%
ASX 200 REITs
1,303
17.0
1.3%
ASX 200 Industrial
4,588
-0.9
0.0%
ASX 200 Info Tech
843
-0.1
0.0%
ASX 200 Discretionary
1,946
-9.1
-0.5%
ASX 200 Telecoms
2,175
7.2
0.3%
ASX 200 Staples
9,261
-20.5
-0.2%
ASX 200 Utilities
6,567
43.8
0.7%
19,306
-117.5
-0.6%
ASX 200 HealthCare
2
Total Traded Volume (m)
1,435
Total Traded Value ($m)
3,819
* The UBS IQ Research Preferred ETF tracks a portfolio of UBS BUY-rated Australian securities and trades on the
ASX under the ticker code “ETF.AXW ”.
** The UBS IQ Research Preferred Dividend ETF tracks a portfolio of high yielding Australian securities and trades
on the ASX under the ticker code “DIV.AXW ”.
1. Overview
ASX200 fell below the 5800 level… BHP traded ex-div and weighed most on the index.
- Local shares followed offshore markets into negative territory with BHP Billiton (BHP -5.0% $30.33) weighing
most on the ASX200 index after trading ex-dividend. On the domestic economic front, consumer sentiment (as
measured by Westpac/Melbourne Institute) fell -1.2% month-on-month to 99.5pts in February, to a level now
only marginally below average. Elsewhere, ’time to buy a dwelling’ has fallen to a bit below average. Positively
however, unemployment expectations improved again to the best level since 2013. In other news, total home
loan values (ex-refis) retraced -1.2% month-on-month in January, with the year-on-year rate continuing to
moderate, implying slower house price growth ahead. Overall, the RBA's February rate cut (coupled with the
prior fall in petrol prices) helped stabilise the trend of consumer sentiment near average, and hence suggests
ongoing solid real consumption growth.
Consumer sentiment:
Total home loan values:
Miners were the worst performing… FMG & MGX are heavily shorted.
- Continued weakness in key commodity markets overnight continued to weigh on performance in the materials
sector. BHP Billiton (BHP -5.0% $30.33) ended the day 5.0% weaker, Rio Tinto (RIO $57.87) lost 1.2% and
gold stocks OceanaGold (OGC $2.10) and Newcrest Mining (NCM $12.29) slumped 4.5% and 1.0% as the
gold price hit a fresh three month low overnight. Latest short interest data shows that over the five days to 4
March, short interest in iron ore producers Fortescue (FMG -3.5% $1.95) and Mount Gibson (MGX +2.3%
$0.22) jumped 470/620bps to 20.7/11.9%% of shares respectively. Structural headwinds persist in the iron ore
market and it remains our least preferred commodity exposure. In a relative sense, we think the best placed
exposures will be those with high quality ore delivered at a low cost to China. Consequently, we prefer low-cost
diversified producers BHP and RIO. The chart below provides a comparison of our breakeven analysis of each of
the iron ore producers globally (that are under coverage). Evidently, as the iron ore price has continued to track
lower there has been a significant improvement in breakeven levels for the majority of producers since October.
Break-even cost position of major producers (US$/dmt cfr 62% Fe):
3
AAD fell -19% following the resignation of long-serving CEO Greg Shaw.
- Ardent Leisure Group (AAD $1.97) was the worst performing stock in the ASX200, losing 19.1% after
announcing the resignation of long-serving CEO Greg Shaw, who will no longer be a director of the company
with immediate effect. AAD has appointed ex-magazine editor Ms Deborah Thomas to take over as CEO.
Most stocks in the energy sector followed the oil price lower… OSH & DLS outperformed.
- Ongoing weakness in the oil price saw most stocks in the energy sector continue to lose strength. Santos (STO
$7.33), which is the most leveraged to the oil price movement among the large caps ended the day unchanged
while Senex Energy (SXY $0.32) and Karoon (KAR $2.31) lost 3.0% and 3.8% respectively. Drillsearch (DLS
$1.09) and Oil Search (OSH $7.80) outperformed, edging up 8.5% and 1.3% respectively.
We continue to rate NEC and SWM as Buys… TEN remains a fundamental SELL.
- Latest ratings share data shows Seven (SWM -5.2% $1.46) claimed the #1 ratings crown in February with total
people share up 80bps year-on-year to 42.2%, and won in all key demographics. Nine (NEC +0.5% $2.08)
share was flat at 35.4% while Ten's (TEN +2.2% $0.24) total people share declined -80bps to 22.4%. NEC and
SWM remain our key picks amongst the TV exposures, and we continue to rate TEN as a fundamental Sell
excluding potential M&A upside.
We neutralised our call on MIN following recent share price weakness.
- We have lowered our FY15-17 operational earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources (MIN -2.2% $6.70) by
between 3-7% following downward revisions to our iron ore price forecasts by our global commodities team
reflecting a reduction in global steel production forecasts. Additionally, we have upgraded our MIN rating to
Neutral from Sell following recent share price weakness. Since the start of 2015, MIN has lost ~10% while the
ASX200 index has climbed ~8%, and MIN is now trading broadly in line with our revised valuation and price
target of $6.80/share. We continue to view MIN as a well-managed business with exposure to long term growth
in domestic iron ore production. However, the near term outlook for its iron ore operations is challenged given
the current weak pricing environment.
CWN has sold off aggressively over the past few sessions… Presents a buying opportunity.
- Crown Resorts (CWN -3.7% $14.18) appears oversold (-8.0% week-to-date) with investor concerns focused
on MPEL's recent heavy weakness and the subdued revenue outlook in Macau. While we expect an ongoing
subdued revenue outlook in Macau throughout 2015, we continue to rate the stock as a Buy on valuation
grounds with the jewel in the company's portfolio, Crown Melbourne, continuing to perform exceptionally well.
Our $18.45/share price target implies ~30% upside potential from current levels. Additionally, our longer term
forecasts currently do not incorporate potential upside from Crown Sydney (in Barangaroo) from FY20/21+, the
proposed Las Vegas development or the potential Queens Wharf casino redevelopment in Brisbane.
Latest short interest data shows short interest increasing in FLT & PRY… decreasing in MTS & COH.
- Latest short interest data shows the following key changes over the week to 4 March:
ASX 100
Top 3 Increase in Short - FMG, FLT, PRY
Top 3 Decrease in Short - MTS, COH, CAR
Top 5 Short Stocks - FMG 20.7%, FLT 15.4%, MTS 13.2%, MIN 12.4%, PRY 11.1%
Top Sector Short: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Information Technology
ASX Small Ordinaries
4
Top 3 Increase in Short - MGX, NWH, SXY
Top 3 Decrease in Short - EVN, NXT, VET
Top 5 Short Stocks - MYR 19.0%, WHC 13.7%, KAR 12.3%, AGO 12.0%, MGX 11.9%
[Back to top]
2. Macro Releases
Consumer sentiment eases, but after post-RBA rebound (Haslem & Tharenou, Australian Economics)
Mar consumer sentiment -1% m/m to 99.5, but after 8% rebound post RBA cut
Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment retraced only modestly as expected, down by 1.2% m/m to
99.5 in February, partly offsetting an 8.0% m/m rebound to 100.7 in February after the RBA's 25bp rate cut.
Consumer sentiment is now marginally below average, but now flat y/y. Elsewhere, ’time to buy a dwelling’ has
fallen to a bit below average. Positively however, unemployment expectations improved again, to the best (i.e.
lowest) level since 2013. Separately, 'the wisest place for savings' showed attitudes towards repaying
debt/mortgage became a bit more cautious than a year ago, but the household saving rate continues to fall.
Jan home loans retrace 1.2% m/m (after 4.8% rebound), but still a slower trend
Total home loan values (ex-refis) retraced by 1.2% m/m in January, albeit after rebounding 4.8% m/m to a
record high level. But, the trend continues to moderate, with the y/y slowing to 9.6%. The m/m fall was driven
by owner-occupiers, across both established and new. Investors were flat, with a retracement in new offsetting
the ongoing boom of investors buying established . Meanwhile, total construction loans dropped back, albeit
the trend is still at a cycle high. Elsewhere, the 1st home-owner share fell further towards a record low at just
8.3% in January. For owner-occupiers only, NSW remains on the strongest up-trend among major States.
Implications: RBA's rate cut helps stabilise consumer sentiment near average
Overall, the RBA's February rate cut (coupled by the prior fall in petrol prices) helped stabilise the trend of
consumer sentiment near average, and hence suggests ongoing solid real consumption growth – broadly
consistent with our view. Meanwhile, home loans continued their moderating trend, implying slower house
price growth ahead – but this pre-dates a likely boost from the RBA's Feb cut.
[CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL REPORT]
[Back to top]
3. UBS Research Released Intraday
None.
5
4. UBS Research Released Overnight
CSL Limited (CSL) - We attend EU Plasma Jamboree – Competitive but stable (Goodsall)
Rating: Buy (unchanged)
Price Target: $96 (unchanged)
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund (NS) (FSF.NZ) - Low-risk contamination threat to infant formula products
(Curley)
Rating: Neutral (unchanged)
Price Target: $NZ$6.65 (unchanged)
Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) - Further cuts to ore price forecasts, but can MIN get mono from
monorail? (Sundram)
Rating: Neutral (prior Sell)
Price Target: $6.8 (prior $7)
Media - TV Matters: Seven seasonally strong in Feb-15 (Eary)
Rating: N/A (unchanged)
Price Target: $N/A (unchanged)
Iron Ore - Limboing under the iron ore price (Lawcock)
Rating: N/A (unchanged)
Price Target: $N/A (unchanged)
Global Iron Ore - Iron ore: China steel market ex-growth (Morgan)
Rating: N/A (unchanged)
Price Target: $N/A (unchanged)
Insurance - When the tide drifts out (Coghill)
Rating: N/A
Price Target: N/A
[CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL REPORTS OF UBS RESEARCH RELEASED OVERNIGHT]
[CLICK HERE TO RESET YOUR UBS RESEARCHWEB PASSWORD]
[Back to top]
5. Stock Movements
ASX 100 Top 10 - Advances
ASX 100 Top 10 - Declines
Change
Close
Price
Code
Company Name
Change
Close
Price
BHP Billiton Limited
-5.0%
$30.33
ALQ
Als Ltd
-4.1%
$5.21
$4.51
CWN
Crown Resorts Ltd
-3.7%
$14.18
2.3%
$3.97
MND
Monadelphous Group
-3.6%
$8.48
Tatts Group Ltd
2.1%
$3.99
FMG
Fortescue Metals Grp
-3.5%
$1.95
ALL
Aristocrat Leisure
1.9%
$7.39
LLC
Lend Lease Group
-2.5%
$16.21
APA
APA Group
1.8%
$8.99
LEI
Leighton Holdings
-2.4%
$21.27
SYD
SYD Airport
1.8%
$5.24
HGG
Henderson Group
-2.3%
$5.20
FXJ
Fairfax Media Ltd
1.6%
$0.95
MIN
Mineral Resources.
-2.2%
$6.70
PRY
Primary Health Care
1.4%
$5.03
WOR
WorleyParsons Ltd
-1.9%
$9.22
Code
Company Name
WFD
Westfield Corp
3.6%
$9.86
BHP
AWC
Alumina Limited
3.5%
$1.78
EGP
Echo Entertainment
2.5%
CSR
CSR Limited
TTS
ASX Small Ords Top 10 - Advances
ASX Small Ords Top 10 - Declines
Code
Company Name
Change
Close
Price
Code
Company Name
Change
Close
Price
DLS
Drillsearch Energy
8.5%
$1.09
AAD
Ardent Leisure Group
-19.1%
$1.97
HZN
Horizon Oil Limited
7.7%
$0.14
RSG
Resolute Mining
-9.4%
$0.24
API
Australian Pharm.
6.5%
$1.49
ACR
Acrux Limited
-7.4%
$0.76
HIL
Hills Ltd
6.0%
$0.97
PRU
Perseus Mining Ltd
-7.0%
$0.27
SRX
Sirtex Medical
4.2%
$37.58
SPL
Starpharma Holdings
-7.0%
$0.47
VOC
Vocus Comms Ltd
4.0%
$5.72
VET
Vocation Ltd
-6.5%
$0.07
6
RIC
Ridley Corporation
3.9%
$1.06
KCN
Kingsgate Consolid.
-6.4%
$0.66
EVN
Evolution Mining Ltd
3.8%
$0.82
TGS
Tiger Resources
-6.0%
$0.06
DCG
Decmil Group Limited
3.0%
$1.19
BDR
Beadell Resource Ltd
-5.8%
$0.25
MVF
Monash Ivf Group Ltd
2.9%
$1.44
SEA
Sundance Energy
-5.6%
$0.51
ASX 100 Heavy Volume
Code
FMG
BPT
Company Name
Fortescue Metals
Grp
Beach Energy
Limited
NWS
News Corp
TWE
Treasury Wine
Estate
ARI
Arrium Ltd
BHP
MND
BHP Billiton
Limited
Monadelphous
Group
Today's
Vol
('000)
Closing
Price
% of
ADV
49,455
$1.95
14,090
ASX Small Ords Heavy Volume
Code
Company Name
Today's
Vol
('000)
Closing
Price
% of
ADV
256%
ABY
#N/A
4,634
$0.18
961%
$1.00
222%
POH
Phosphagenics
Ltd.
2,878
$0.05
555%
618
$21.07
222%
MNC
Metminco Limited
31,651
$0.01
515%
7,396
$5.10
202%
AAD
22,567
$1.97
445%
28,394
$0.18
192%
EVR
1,116
$0.55
418%
12,554
$30.33
159%
OGC
OceanaGold Corp.
1,008
$2.10
254%
1,101
$8.48
151%
BKN
Bradken Limited
2,913
$1.83
243%
490
$0.77
221%
Ardent Leisure
Group
Endeavour Min
Corp
AGO
Atlas Iron Limited
8,125
$0.15
150%
UNS
Unilife
Corporation
PDN
Paladin Energy Ltd
9,545
$0.36
148%
ASL
Ausdrill Limited
2,660
$0.37
219%
LEI
Leighton Holdings
725
$21.27
147%
TRY
Troy Resources Ltd
1,990
$0.43
214%
[Back to top]
6. Tomorrow's Events & Upcoming Dividends
Stock Events
Code
IssuerName
Event
UBS Comment
None.
Macro Events
Country
Event
UBS Comment
None.
Ex-Dividend
Ex-Date
Code
Dividend Amount
Franking
12-Mar
AHE
9c
100%
12-Mar
ASB
1c
100%
12-Mar
IIN
10.5c
100%
12-Mar
IQE
7.3663c
0%
12-Mar
VTG
7.12c
100%
13-Mar
ABC
9.5c
100%
13-Mar
CCV
2c
100%
13-Mar
FAN
10c
100%
13-Mar
GRR
1c
0%
13-Mar
NPX
8.1928c
0%
13-Mar
SPO
4.5c
0%
13-Mar
TGR
7c
50%
16-Mar
BRG
14c
100%
7
16-Mar
CSL
74.385c
0%
16-Mar
IFL
25c
100%
16-Mar
LEI
68c
100%
16-Mar
SKE
7.5c
100%
16-Mar
VRL
14c
100%
17-Mar
AIA
7.0777c
0%
17-Mar
BAP
4c
100%
18-Mar
ASL
1c
100%
18-Mar
CDD
13c
100%
18-Mar
MIN
7.5c
100%
18-Mar
PRY
9c
100%
18-Mar
RFG
11.5c
100%
18-Mar
SKC
8.0699c
25%
18-Mar
SMX
7c
100%
18-Mar
WOW
67c
100%
19-Mar
MCP
6c
100%
19-Mar
TRS
16.5c
100%
**To see the Stock and Macro Events for the month ahead contact UBS**
[Back to top]
UBS Research Ratings and Price Targets
AAD Neutral UBS PT $2.45
SWM Buy UBS PT $2.2
STO Buy UBS PT $9.5
NEC Buy UBS PT $2.4
TEN Sell UBS PT $0.15
MIN Neutral UBS PT $6.8
CWN Buy UBS PT $18.45
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