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January
15
World Pulp Monthly
Analysis and Forecasts of the
International Pulp Market
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Summary
BSK and BHK prices in January again moved in opposite directions, which, although
unusual, was expected in light of the uncommonly large price gap between the two grades
in 2014. The value of the US dollar relative to the euro and other major pulp-producing
currencies has posted yet another increase over the past month. Our price forecast has been
revised downward from last month based on a new exchange rate projection, but the overall
shape of our forecast curve has not changed. We still see the possibility of some additional
upward movement coming for BHK in the next several months, followed by a correction in
the second quarter, with BSK continuing to move down through mid-year. However, we have
lowered our estimates of the low points that these markets will reach by mid-2015. This is
based on recent exchange rate developments, which are moving faster than our currency
projections had anticipated.
Recent Developments
RISI has updated its currency forecasts to show an even stronger dollar, so we have
revised our price forecast downward again this month. This is better seen as an episode of
"dollar strength" rather than "euro weakness," as most currencies are weakening relative to the
dollar. The value of the euro dropped again in January and went as low as $1.12 in the early
days of February, while the Canadian dollar dropped to less than $0.80. RISI's new forecast,
finalized in January, has the euro dropping to as low as $1.05 in the third quarter of this year,
with the Canadian dollar bottoming out in the same time period at $0.77. Cash production
costs have already shifted downward substantially for most pulp producers and the forecast
shows substantial further declines over the next two quarters. Pulp demand is not expected
to be strong this year, so prices will fall until they reach some sort of cost support. With cost
curves shifting downward, that support will be found at lower price levels than was expected.
In short, the weak demand environment for pulp means that the exchange rate developments
will translate rather directly to a lower bottom in prices. If currency developments do not
proceed as we expect, our price forecast will be too low.
The losers in this development are pulp producers in China and the USA—their costs are not
affected by the strength of the dollar, so lower prices will result in a painful squeeze in cash
operating margins for these producers. (The Chinese currency moves very closely with the US
dollar and China's pulp mills now crowd the upper end of the BHK cost curve.) The risk of
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Abbreviations:
BSK
BHK
UKP
MEC
SEM
SIT
BIT
UIT
Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp
Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp
Unbleached Kraft Pulp
Mechanical Pulp
Semichemical Pulp
Sulfite Pulp
Bleached Sulfite
Unbleached Sulfite
DP
PAB
P&W
CNT
FSC
MPB
OFE
BDMT
Dissolving Pulp
Paper and Paperboard
Printing & Writing
Containerboard
Forest Stewardship Council
Mountain Pine Beetle
Other Far East (Asia excluding China and Japan)
Bone Dry Metric Ton
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
pulp mill closure has shifted from Europe to the United States and China. Our new forecast is consistent with
pulp mill downtime and perhaps closures occurring in both of these countries by the end of third quarter. If the
Chinese decide to allow the renminbi to weaken relative to the dollar—which could make sense to them, given
how strong it is now relative to most other currencies—the risk of closure will be lessened there and raised in
the United States. If exchange rates follow the path foreseen in RISI's forecast, pulp mills in the USA that were
stressed at the bottom of the market in 2014 are likely to be even more stressed over the next two quarters.
Chinese paper and board markets remain weak. There is little change to report in the paper markets in China;
all of the major end uses for market pulp remain oversupplied. Producers of woodfree printing & writing paper,
virgin cartonboard and tissue are all suffering from capacity overexpansion and weak consumption growth due
in part to the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy. Paper prices and operating margins remain low, but
activity is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival.
BHK orders in China weaker in January, prices up. Overall World 20 BHK shipments were quite strong in
December, as expected. Shipments came in at 67,600 tonnes per day, higher than in either October or November.
Part of this strength was due to China, but demand was also strong in North America, Europe and Other Asia/
Africa. However, our seasonal adjustment model indicates that shipments actually fell in December on a
seasonally adjusted basis. It is a technical point, but we are a little less confident in the seasonal adjustment
factor for December than for other months.
Producer BHK inventories dropped substantially in December on an unadjusted basis, but rose on a seasonallyadjusted basis. Again, the same issues with respect to seasonal adjustment may be at work here as well, so we
will be watching the January data closely for a better reading.
In January, Chinese BHK demand was anecdotally somewhat less strong than in December as buyers put up
some resistance to higher prices. We estimate that major overseas suppliers of BEK as well as local suppliers to
China were able to raise prices by at least another $10/tonne in January, despite the fact that BSK prices were
falling at the same time. BHK appears to still be in relatively short supply in China.
Figure 1
China Bleached Kraft Spot Price Comparison
US Dollars and RMB per Tonne
7,000
$950
7,000
6,700
$900
6,700
6,400
$850
6,400
6,100
$800
6,100
$800
5,800
$750
5,800
$750
5,500
$700
5,500
$700
5,200
$650
5,200
$650
4,900
$600
4,900
$600
$550
4,600
$550
$500
4,300
$500
$450
4,000
$450
4,600
NBSK Local RMB
NBSK Local US$ ex VAT
NBSK Import Price Ex 2% Disc US$
4,300
-14
Oct-14
-14
Jun-14
-14
Feb-14
-13
Oct-13
-13
Jun-13
-13
Feb-13
-12
Oct-12
-12
Jun-12
-12
Feb-12
2RISI
-11
Oct-11
Jun-11
-11
-14
Oct-14
-14
Jun-14
-14
Feb-14
-13
Oct-13
-13
Jun-13
-13
Feb-13
-12
Oct-12
-12
Jun-12
-12
Feb-12
-11
Oct-11
Jun-11
-11
4,000
BEK Local Price RMB
BEK Local US$ ex VAT
BEK Import Price Ex 5% Disc US$
$950
$900
$850
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
Figure 2
BHK and BSK World 20 Producer Inventories
Days of Supply
65
60
BHK
Avg BHK (37.6)
55
BSK
Avg BSK (28.7)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Source: PPPC, RISI
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Figure 3
Bleached Kraft Pulp Imports into China
Thousand Tonnes/Month, Not Seasonally Adjusted
700
BSK Imports
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14
0
BHK Imports
1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14
RISI3
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
Figure 4
Western Europe Monthly Fine Paper Deliveries
Thousand Tonnes/Day, Three-Month Moving Average
30
Uncoated Fine Paper, Euro Graph Deliveries PER DAY 3MMA
Coated Fine Paper, Euro Graph Deliveries PER DAY 3MMA
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
Figure 5
Western Europe Monthly Mechanical Paper Deliveries
Thousand Tonnes/Day, Three-Month Moving Average
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
Uncoated Mechanical Paper, Euro Graph Deliveries PER DAY 3MMA
12
10
Coated Mechanical Paper, Euro Graph Deliveries PER DAY 3MMA
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
4RISI
1/09
1/10
1/11
1/12
1/13
1/14
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
In North America, BEK contract prices rose by $10/tonne. Prices for other BHK grades in the region were
unchanged for the month. BEK is now selling at a $15/tonne premium to other hardwoods in North America,
which is in line with what we have been expecting.
The producer inventory situation is still favoring producers, so we would expect a further rise in prices around
the world in February and March. Based on seasonal patterns in the European printing & writing sector, market
BHK consumption should pick up substantially starting in February through April, so producers should have a
tailwind in their attempts to raise prices over the coming months. The spring season in the Northern Hemisphere
is typically the peak period for BHK consumption and demand in Europe. European demand for BHK will be
picking up as China's inventory adjustment (and stronger purchasing volumes) winds down. The Chinese Spring
Festival starts in mid-February this year, and there is a big question as to whether Chinese demand will continue
to be strong after market participants return from the holiday. It would not be surprising to see Chinese buyers
pulling back somewhat as European purchases, and BHK prices, move higher starting in a month or two. The
startup of CMPC's new BHK line in Brazil, coming in the second quarter, is likely to end the felt scarcity of BEK
before mid-year.
BSK pricing again weaker in January. Import prices for NBSK (Canadian and Nordic) into China dropped by as
much as $20/tonne in December, while radiata and Russian softwood fell by even more. The collapse in the value
of the ruble over the past several months has given Russian tonnage a huge cost advantage compared to pulp made
anywhere else, so the incentive here is to keep the tonnage moving even if this requires price concessions in dollars.
Chinese BSK demand has not been exactly weak over the past several months—imports have been about average
compared to early 2014—but buyers have agreed to deals only after getting price reductions.
Table A
Pulp Demand Indicators
2014
Real GDP (% Change)
3.2
World
China
7.4
W. Europe
0.8
United States
2.4
Currencies vs. US$ *
1.25
US$ per Euro
US$ Per Canadian Dollar
0.95
Chinese RMB per US$
6.09
Brazilian Real per US$
2.28
Production of P&W Paper ** (% Change)
-1.2
World
China
-0.6
Western Europe
-2.8
North America
-4.9
Production of Tissue Paper *** (% Change)
3.6
World
Production of Boxboard *** (% Change)
10.5
China
2015
2016
3.5
3.8
6.9
6.7
0.9
1.4
3.4
3.0
1.07
1.11
0.88
0.76
6.15
6.13
2.55
2.71
0.2
0.1
1.9
2.0
-1.6
-1.7
-2.8
-2.2
3.9
3.9
9.3
6.0
* Fourth-quarter average
** Source: RISI graphic paper forecast
*** Source: RISI tissue paper forecast
RISI5
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
A period of seasonal strength on the printing & writing paper side will begin again in February/March, but this
is likely to boost BHK demand more than BSK demand.
The World 20 report for December showed that the BSK market weakened substantially in the last month of
the year. Shipments were weak (both adjusted and unadjusted for seasonality), the shipment/capacity ratio fell
to 91%, and days of supply rose to 31 (both adjusted and unadjusted for seasonality). A level of 31 days is
well above the "balanced" level for the BSK market. The rise in producer inventories in December certainly
contributed to the decline in prices in January.
In our view this marks the beginning of a broad decline in BSK prices through the middle of this year. Elevated
BSK prices, along with much weaker currencies for all major producers except those in the United States, mean
that operating margins are quite healthy for all major producing regions. There is little if any cost-side support
for prices at current levels. Prices could receive some support in the March through May period, on both the
demand and supply sides of the market. There will be a significant round of maintenance downtime in the time
period, and P&W paper production will be seeing a seasonal uptick in Europe, China and the United States. Our
view is that these factors will slow but not reverse the downward trend in prices that we believe is now in place.
Drivers of Pulp Demand
The World Economy
US GDP data showed the economy grew at an annualized 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Although down
significantly from the third quarter's 5% growth rate, this report was nevertheless mostly positive. Consumption,
the largest and most important part of the US economy, grew at a 4.3% annualized rate, the fastest growth since
the first quarter of 2006. Monthly indicators were also mostly positive, with employment growing by 252,000
jobs in December. For the full year, job growth was the best since 1999. Spending took a bit of a step backward
in December, with retail sales falling by 0.9% month-over-month and the previous month's strong gains revised
downward. Industrial production was also lower in December, slipping 0.1% month-over-month, but this was
entirely due to a huge drop in utilities output; manufacturing, meanwhile, remained strong.
Oil continued its decline, falling to as low as $43/barrel, although there are some signs that prices may be
approaching a bottom. We believe that increasing employment and lower gas prices will support sustainable
growth of around 3% per quarter on an annualized basis going forward.
The last few weeks have seen a number of actions by central banks around the world, with many of these moves
coming as a surprise to the market. Canada, Denmark and India lowered interest rates, Switzerland removed
its currency peg causing the Swiss franc to appreciate by almost 20% in a day, and Brazil raised interest rates.
Some of these moves were in response to or in anticipation of the most consequential central bank action: the
long-awaited and much debated quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB). After finally
overcoming, or ignoring, objections from Germany, the ECB has followed the central banks of the USA, the UK
and Japan into this unconventional monetary policy.
The nature of the QE program that the ECB is implementing is a bit more complex than those put into action
by the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, as one would expect given that there are bonds of 19 sovereigns
that need to be purchased. As laid out by the ECB, the program would entail purchases of €60 billion per month
(€50 billion additional new purchases) of sovereign bonds and bonds of European institutions like the European
Investment Bank from March of this year until September 2016.
We think that this QE program will have some marginally positive effects, but overall, they will not be dramatic.
The greatest effect of the QE announcement so far has been on the currency. The euro started depreciating last
summer on the expectation of policy easing by the ECB, but its decline has accelerated. After the announcement
of quantitative easing, the euro fell from 1.17 USD/EUR to 1.11 USD/EUR before bouncing slightly. Devaluing
the euro has certainly been a goal of the ECB, and it is likely to depreciate further. This should help the eurozone
6RISI
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
economy in two ways: making European goods more competitive around the world and raising the cost of
imported goods, which should help with the disinflation problem.
China released its GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2014 as well as the full year, and despite numerous
predictions that the Chinese economy is crashing, it actually seems to be coming in for a soft landing. The
economy grew by 7.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and 7.4% for full-year 2014. A complete breakdown
is not yet available, but with average household income growing by 8%, faster than the overall economy, it looks
like consumption contributed more than half of total GDP growth. Additionally, exports contributed significantly
to GDP, with the country recording its largest ever trade surplus. Investment's contribution to GDP declined for
the year, in line with the government's stated goals. While it has still not been announced, there are rumors that
Beijing will lower the growth target for 2015 from 7.5% to 7.0%.
The monthly data showed some stabilization in industrial production, with year-over-year growth rising to 7.9%
from 7.2% the prior month. Despite the directives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to increase lending,
new bank loans in December came in much weaker than expected at RMB 697 billion. With the decreased bank
lending, companies turned to the shadow banking segment, with the percentage of loans coming from these less
regulated sources at the highest percentage of total loans since January 2014. While there is continuing weakness
in investment and industrial production, trade is providing much needed support for China's economy. Exports
grew 9.7% year-over-year in December, while imports declined by 2.4%.
The Canadian dollar weakened further in January, falling to US$0.803, and declining oil prices should continue
to put pressure on the loonie. In general, we see ongoing US dollar strength versus most currencies.
Outlook for Pulp Supply
On the capacity front, the situation has been more stable and transparent than was the case in 2013 into mid2014. The following developments are on our radar.
•
Since last month's World Pulp Monthly was published, the Old Town BHK mill (200,000 tonnes per year)
restarted production after being down since August. The new owner of the operation, Expera Paper Solutions,
will use the pulp at its other mills, and production could swing between BHK and BSK. according to reports
the mill has recently been producing market BHK.
•
Mondi has officially opened its 100,000 tonne per year pulp dryer at its Syktyvkar mill in Russia. The €30
million investment aims to improve the efficiency of the pulp line and increase excess pulp going into the
open market.
•
Paper Excellence has postponed the reopening of its Chetwynd mill that was originally set for July 2014.
The company purchased the facility from Tembec in early 2014. The BCTMP mill was idled by Tembec in
September 2012 due to poor market conditions for high-yield pulp. The facility can produce 240,000 tonnes
per year of BCTMP.
•
Portucel's Cacia mill will expand its BHK capacity from 285,000 tonnes to 353,000 tonnes by mid-2015.
The market pulp mill will receive government assistance in the form of tax and financial incentives to see
the project through.
•
CMPC is scheduled to have a new BEK line up and running in May of 2015 at its Guaíba mill in Rio
Grande do Sul State, adding an additional 1.3 million tonnes per year of BEK to the existing 400,000 tonne
per year line. The project is well under way and in the process of optimizing logistics to access wood fiber
and export the additional BEK tonnage.
•
Double A has not yet restarted the pulp line at the Alizay mill, which it acquired in a separate purchase from
the paper line. We initially estimate it will be capable of drying as much as 130,000 tonnes of BHK for the
market, and the company reports the line will be operational by the first half of 2015.
RISI7
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
•
UPM will be expanding NBSK capacity at its Kymi mill as a part of its broader company-wide goal to raise
pulping capacity by 10% over the next three years. The capacity expansion will total 170,000 tonnes per
year of market pulp, split evenly between birch and BSK pulp. We expect this project to be complete in the
latter half of 2015.
•
Domtar has announced a conversion of its largest UFS paper machine at the company's Ashdown Mill
located in Arkansas in the third quarter of 2016 to a pulp line with capacity of up to 516,000 tonnes per year.
•
Holmen's Iggesund Paperboard will invest US$70.4 million between its Workington mill in the UK and
its Iggesund mill in Sweden. The investment will include debottlenecking the Iggesund mill to increase pulp
production capacity by 50,000 tonnes per year. The investment is set to be completed by mid-2016.
Table B
Major Market Pulp Capacity Changes (Q1 2013 - Q2 2015)
Thousand Tonnes
Company
Location
Country
Grade (Type)
Jari Celulose
Domtar (Kamloops)
Schweighofer
Ilim Pulp
Sappi (Cloquet)
Buckeye Technologies (Foley)
Ilim Pulp
Indah Kiat
Solombalsky
An Hoa Pulp & Paper
Rayonier (Jesup)
Mayr-Melnhof
SodraCell
Metsä Fibre Oy
Sappi
Iguacu
UPM
Heinzel Holding
Phoenix Pulp and Paper
Monte Dourado
British Columbia
Hallein
Koryazhma
Minnesota
Florida
Irkustk
Perawang
Arkhangelsk
Tuyen Quang
Georgia
Follafoss
Tofte
Joutseno
Ngodwana
Pirai do Sul
Fray Bentos
Pols
Namphong
Brazil
Canada
Austria
Russia
USA
USA
Russia
Indonesia
Russia
Vietnam
USA
Norway
Norway
Finland
S. Africa
Brazil
Uruguay
Austria
Thailand
BHK (Closure)
BSK (Line Closure)
BIT (Conversion to DP)
BSK/BHK (Integration)
BHK (Conversion to DP)
BSK (Conversion to DP)
BSK (New Line)
BHK (Integration)
UKP (Closure)
BHK (Integration)
BSK (Conversion to DP)
MEC (Restart)
BHK/BSK (Closure)
BSK (Upgrade)
BSK/BHK (Conversion to DP)
UKP (Integration)
BHK (Debottlneck)
BSK (Integration)
BHK (Conversion to DP)
Suzano
Oji
Imperatriz
Yonago
Brazil
Japan
BHK (New Mill)
BHK (Conversion to DP)
Eldorado
Três Lagoas
Brazil
BHK (Debottleneck)
Montes del Plata
Oji
Punta Pereira
Nantong
Uruguay
China
BHK (New Mill)
BHK (New Line)
Lontar Papyrus
Jambi
Indonesia
Paper Excellence
British Columbia
Hongyuan
Fangchenggang
CMPC
Portucel
Double A
Guaiba
Portugal
Alizay
Capacity Mkt
Year
Quarter
-430
2013
1
-120
2013
1
-160
2013
1
-200
2013
1
-250
2013
2
-55
2013
2
500
2013
2
-295
2013
2
-230
2013
-80
2013
-260
2013
3
120
2013
3
-405
2013
3
60
2013
3
-150
2013
3
-75
2013
4
100
2013
4
-55
2013
4
-105
2013
4
1,500
2014
1
-100
2014
1
200
2014
1
1,300
2014
2
240
2014
2
BHK (Integration)
-55
2014
2
Canada
MEC (Restart)
240
2014
3
China
BHK/Bagasse (New Mill)
100
2015
1,300
2015
Brazil
Europe
France
BHK (New Line)
BHK (Expansion)
BHK (Restart)
8RISI
2
70
2015
2
130
2015
2
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
•
Sodra has lined up a list of investments to be made at its Varo mill in Sweden, which should be completed
in late 2016. The investments will increase the BSK capacity from the current 425,000 tonnes per year to
700,000 tonnes per year. There will also be work done at its Morrum mill, which looks to get an increase in
BSK production from 380,000 tonnes per year to 425,000 tonnes per year.
•
The Woodland pulp mill in eastern Maine, owned by International Grand Investment Corp, will
reportedly be installing two 66,000 tonne per year tissue machines. The company states that about a quarter
of the pulp mill's 400,000 tonnes of NBHK capacity will be integrated with the two new lines. The mill may
swing some of its pulping capacity to NBSK to furnish the tissue lines as well. The first of the two PMs is
slated to come online in the last quarter of 2015 and the second by the beginning of 2016.
Outlook for Pulp Prices
We have made substantial revisions to our price forecast for the second half of this year, based on exchange
rate developments outlined above. We noted these issues last month and said that we were being cautious and
waiting to see another month's worth of exchange rate developments before making more substantial revisions.
Since then, a new RISI base-case macroeconomic scenario has been finalized, which indicated a substantially
stronger dollar scenario than had been the case in earlier forecasts. Our price forecast is now in line with RISI's
new exchange rate scenario.
Our view has been that both BSK and BHK prices would bottom out in the third quarter of this year. This has
not changed, but the levels at which prices reach bottom will be substantially lower based on the new exchange
rate forecast. We anticipate relatively weak demand in the second quarter and into the third quarter. Prices are
likely to trend downward until they reach some sort of cost support. For BSK, that is likely to happen in the upper
$500s/tonne in the United States, Germany and Austria. For BHK, Chinese mills will be the high-cost producers
and there will be cost support in the low to mid $500s/tonne. We anticipate that spot prices will fall to these
levels while net contract prices will be somewhat higher, as usually occurs in during weak market conditions.
The Chinese currency has recently weakened slightly relative to the dollar but remains quite strong relative to
most other currencies in the world. If the Chinese allow the renminbi to weaken substantially relative to the
dollar—to keep it more in line with other currencies—then the cost curve for BHK will shift downward by more
than we are expecting.
While we see the possibility of some further price improvement for BHK in the months ahead, BSK has peaked
and will trend downward. This situation is historically unusual, but so was the gap in prices between NBSK and
BEK in 2014, which was estimated at $165/tonne in China last September. The gap tends to overshoot the longrun average in both directions, although that is not our base-cast projection at present.
The upturn in BHK prices over the past few months was expected, based on consumer inventory adjustments,
especially in China, and BHK capacity leaving the market—either going out of production or switching to BSK.
Whether our projection of a continuation of the rise into 2015 is correct will be soon determined. December and
January are typically relatively weak in terms of paper production, but then we should see the usual surge in
demand for and production of woodfree printing & writing paper in the Northern Hemisphere's spring months,
which will substantially boost market pulp consumption, especially in Europe.
The startup of CMPC's Guaíba mill in Brazil is scheduled for May and this will depress pricing for BHK in the
second and third quarters. For bleached kraft pulp as a whole on a worldwide basis, our most recent five-year
forecast shows a shipment/capacity ratio in 2015 of just 92.4%, revised down from an earlier projection of
93.8%, based on recent economic developments in Europe and China. The role of China will be critical here. As
expected, Chinese buyers are restocking BHK, which should support an upward price trend until the Northern
Hemisphere's summer months approach, at which time we show a price decline. We expect Chinese inventories
to be built rather aggressively starting in the third quarter of 2015.
RISI9
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
Figure 6
European Consumer Pulp Inventories
Utipulp Seasonally Adjusted Days of Supply
24
Days of Supply (SA)
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
BSK DAYS SA
Source: RISI, Utipulp
10
11
12
BHK DAYS SA
13
14
Figure 7
NBSK Effective List Price for Contract Transactions in Three Currencies
Currency Units per Tonne, Delivered to Northern Europe
1,200
Euros,, $
US $
Canadian $
Euros
1
100
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
S
Source:
RISI
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
10RISI
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08
09
10
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World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 1*
20 Country Chemical Paper Grade Market Pulp Summary
Thousand Tonnes, Seasonally Adjusted
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
20 Major Producing Countries**
Shipments (Actual)
Shipments (Seas Adj)
%Ch - Year Earlier
3,771
3,832
4.8
3,744
3,729
0.9
3,936
3,639
0.6
3,452
3,638
1.4
3,486
3,654
-1.0
3,823
3,628
-2.8
3,636
3,755
-1.2
3,748
3,816
2.1
3,912
3,913
8.1
3,706
3,822
1.5
3,790
3,842
2.9
4,190
3,918
5.7
3,827
3,886
1.4
3,876
3,849
3.2
4,070
3,773
3.7
Producer Inventories (Actual)
Producer Inventories (Seas Adj)
Days Of Supply
4,102
4,034
31.6
3,983
4,043
32.5
4,023
4,206
34.7
4,435
4,341
35.8
4,373
4,271
35.1
4,434
4,518
37.4
4,460
4,621
36.9
4,384
4,537
35.7
4,101
4,311
33.1
4,456
4,232
33.2
4,648
4,280
33.4
4,167
4,172
31.9
4,244
4,189
32.3
4,259
4,385
34.2
4,381 ***
4,560 ***
36.3
Capacity
Strike-Adj Capacity
Shipments/Capacity
3,970
3,970
0.97
3,974
3,974
0.94
4,008
4,008
0.91
4,046
4,046
0.90
4,080
4,080
0.90
4,095
4,095
0.89
4,107
4,107
0.91
4,121
4,121
0.93
4,145
4,145
0.94
4,172
4,172
0.92
4,195
4,195
0.92
4,201
4,201
0.93
4,204
4,204
0.92
4,207
4,207
0.91
4,217
4,217
0.89
PRICES AND COSTS
(US DOLLARS PER TONNE)
Delivered to N. Europe -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Birch Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
895
765
725
905
775
730
905
775
730
915
770
730
920
770
730
925
765
730
925
760
725
925
750
720
925
735
710
930
725
700
930
720
695
935
725
700
935
730
705
935
740
715
935
745
720
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
860
715
870
720
870
720
880
720
880
720
880
715
880
710
880
710
880
700
880
690
880
685
885
690
885
695
885
705
885
715
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
765
775
775
770
770
765
760
750
735
725
720
725
730
740
745
Delivered to United States -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
970
860
990
860
990
860
1010
870
1010
870
1030
875
1030
875
1030
875
1030
870
1030
855
1030
840
1030
835
1030
835
1025
835
1020
835
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
930
860
950
860
950
860
970
870
970
870
990
875
990
875
990
875
990
870
990
855
975
840
975
835
975
835
975
835
975
835
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
860
860
860
870
870
870
865
855
845
830
820
815
830
840
840
Delivered to China -- Average Price -- Spot and Contract
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
720
740
750
750
750
770
750
720
720
725
730
730
725
720
700
Bl. Radiata Pine Kraft
710
730
730
730
730
750
730
700
710
710
710
710
710
710
690
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
645
655
655
645
645
620
600
590
575
575
575
575
590
600
610
544
506
527
504
521
507
521
515
530
516
538
515
544
512
552
513
543
507
542
490
534
483
531
477
523
475
1.92
1.72
1.94
1.71
1.98
1.69
1.94
1.68
1.91
1.66
1.89
1.65
1.86
1.62
1.90
1.62
1.90
1.66
1.93
1.72
1.93
1.76
1.95
1.77
Avg Var. Cost Delivered to N. Europe, High Cost Region
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
560
501
553
497
Price/Var. Cost Ratios Before Discounts, High Cost Region
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1.73
1.72
1.79
1.73
1.82
1.70
* Data revised December 2006, adding estimated German BSK, removing Portugal to conform to revised industry association reporting.
** Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa,
Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. These countries represent 81% of world supply in 2006.
*** Estimated
For information on contract discounts, see Table 5 footnotes
12RISI
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 2*
20 Country Chemical Paper Grade Market Pulp Summary
Thousand Tonnes, Seasonally Adjusted
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
May
2015
Jun
2015
Jul
2015
Aug
2015
Sep
2015
Oct
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
20 Major Producing Countries**
Shipments (Actual)
Shipments (Seas Adj)
%Ch - Year Earlier
3,724
3,925
7.9
3,716
3,895
6.6
4,120
3,910
7.8
3,805
3,930
4.7
3,826
3,895
2.1
3,884
3,885
-0.7
3,913
4,035
5.6
4,020
4,075
6.1
4,438
4,150
5.9
4,102
4,165
7.2
4,179
4,150
7.8
4,412
4,090
8.4
3,976
4,190
6.8
3,997
4,190
7.6
4,415
4,190
7.2
Producer Inventories (Actual)
Producer Inventories (Seas Adj)
Days Of Supply
4,446
4,542
34.7
4,458
4,565
35.2
4,704
4,617
35.4
4,823
4,655
35.5
4,914
4,749
36.6
5,128
4,878
37.7
4,635
4,880
36.3
4,415
4,794
35.3
4,705
4,700
34.0
4,560
4,619
33.3
4,717
4,581
33.1
4,796
4,608
33.8
4,647
4,549
32.6
4,610
4,503
32.2
4,410
4,493
32.2
Capacity
Strike-Adj Capacity
Shipments/Capacity
4,227
4,227
0.93
4,238
4,238
0.92
4,250
4,250
0.92
4,264
4,264
0.92
4,280
4,280
0.91
4,316
4,316
0.90
4,356
4,356
0.93
4,390
4,390
0.93
4,395
4,395
0.94
4,394
4,394
0.95
4,395
4,395
0.94
4,401
4,401
0.93
4,408
4,408
0.95
4,416
4,416
0.95
4,431
4,431
0.95
PRICES AND COSTS
(US DOLLARS PER TONNE)
Delivered to N. Europe -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Birch Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
915
745
720
895
750
725
880
760
735
870
760
735
850
750
725
830
720
695
790
700
675
765
675
650
765
675
650
775
690
665
800
700
675
815
710
685
825
720
695
840
730
705
840
740
715
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
865
715
845
715
830
725
820
725
800
715
780
685
740
665
715
640
715
640
725
655
750
665
765
675
775
685
790
695
790
705
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
745
750
760
760
750
720
700
675
675
690
700
710
720
730
740
Delivered to United States -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1010
835
990
835
970
845
960
845
940
835
920
805
880
785
855
760
855
760
865
775
890
785
905
795
915
805
930
815
930
825
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
965
835
945
835
925
845
915
845
895
835
875
805
835
785
810
760
810
760
820
775
845
785
860
795
870
805
885
815
890
825
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
850
850
860
860
850
820
800
775
775
790
800
810
820
830
840
Delivered to China -- Average Price -- Spot and Contract
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
680
660
650
640
630
610
590
590
590
610
620
630
640
650
660
Bl. Radiata Pine Kraft
655
640
635
630
620
600
580
580
570
590
600
610
620
630
640
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
620
630
640
630
620
600
570
540
540
560
570
580
580
590
600
487
448
481
440
483
433
480
428
477
423
474
417
471
415
467
416
460
421
458
424
458
427
462
430
463
433
465
436
2.03
1.90
2.02
1.96
1.99
1.98
1.96
1.99
1.93
1.94
1.86
1.92
1.82
1.87
1.83
1.86
1.88
1.87
1.94
1.89
1.98
1.90
1.98
1.91
2.01
1.92
2.00
1.93
Avg Var. Cost Delivered to N. Europe
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
499
448
Price/Var. Cost Ratios Before Discounts
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
2.02
1.90
* Data revised December 2006, adding estimated German BSK, removing Portugal to conform to revised industry association reporting.
** Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa,
Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. These countries represent 81% of world supply in 2006.
*** Estimated
For information on contract discounts, see Table 5 footnotes
RISI13
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 2* (cont.)
20 Country Chemical Paper Grade Market Pulp Summary
CANADIAN DOLLARS PER TONNE
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
May
2015
Jun
2015
Delivered to N. Europe -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
Exchange Rate (US$/C$)
0.82
0.80
0.79
0.80
0.79
Jul
2015
Aug
2015
Sep
2015
Oct
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
0.79
0.78
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.77
0.78
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Birch Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1,109
903
873
1,113
933
902
1,111
959
928
1,094
956
924
1,075
949
917
1,056
916
884
1,008
894
862
982
866
834
988
872
840
1,013
902
869
1,049
918
885
1,069
931
898
1,074
937
904
1,089
946
914
1,084
955
922
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1,049
867
1,051
889
1,048
915
1,031
912
1,012
904
992
871
945
849
918
822
923
827
948
856
984
872
1,003
885
1,009
891
1,024
901
1,019
910
903
933
959
956
949
916
894
866
872
902
918
931
937
946
955
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
Delivered to United States -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1,224
1,012
1,232
1,039
1,225
1,067
1,207
1,062
1,189
1,056
1,170
1,024
1,123
1,002
1,098
976
1,104
982
1,131
1,013
1,167
1,030
1,187
1,043
1,191
1,048
1,205
1,056
1,200
1,064
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
1,170
1,012
1,176
1,039
1,168
1,067
1,150
1,062
1,132
1,056
1,113
1,024
1,066
1,002
1,040
976
1,046
982
1,072
1,013
1,108
1,030
1,128
1,043
1,132
1,048
1,147
1,056
1,148
1,064
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
1,030
1,057
1,086
1,081
1,075
1,043
1,021
995
1,001
1,033
1,049
1,062
1,067
1,076
1,084
Delivered to China -- Average Price -- Spot and Contract
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
824
821
821
805
797
776
753
757
762
797
813
826
833
842
852
Bl. Radiata Pine Kraft
794
796
802
792
784
763
740
745
736
771
787
800
807
817
826
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
752
784
808
792
784
763
728
693
697
732
748
761
755
765
774
EUROS PER TONNE
Delivered to N. Europe -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
Exchange Rate (US$/Euro)
1.16
1.16
1.13
1.11
1.09
1.08
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.08
1.08
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Birch Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
788
641
620
775
649
627
778
672
650
783
684
662
778
687
664
771
669
646
745
660
637
727
641
617
728
642
618
730
650
626
750
656
633
761
663
640
767
670
647
778
676
653
775
683
660
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
745
616
731
619
734
641
738
653
733
655
725
636
698
627
679
608
680
609
682
617
703
624
715
631
721
637
732
644
729
651
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
641
649
672
684
687
669
660
641
642
650
656
663
670
676
683
Delivered to United States -- Effective List Prices for Contract Transactions
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
No. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
870
719
857
723
858
747
865
761
861
765
855
748
830
741
812
722
813
723
814
730
835
736
845
743
851
749
862
755
859
762
So. Bl. Softwood Kraft
So. Bl. Hardwood Kraft
831
719
818
723
818
747
824
761
820
765
813
748
788
741
769
722
771
723
772
730
792
736
803
743
809
749
820
755
822
762
Bl. Brazilian Eucalyptus Kraft
732
736
760
774
778
762
755
736
737
744
750
757
763
769
775
Delivered to China -- Average Price -- Spot and Contract
No. Bl. Softwood Kraft
585
571
575
576
577
567
557
560
561
574
581
589
595
602
609
Bl. Radiata Pine Kraft
564
554
561
567
568
557
547
551
542
555
563
570
577
584
591
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
534
545
566
567
568
557
538
513
514
527
535
542
540
547
554
For information on contract discounts, see Table 5 footnotes
14RISI
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 3*
Chemical Paper Grade Market Pulp
Shipments by Grade and Destination
Thousand Tonnes, Seasonally Adjusted
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
SHIPMENTS BY GRADE
20 Major Producing Countries**
3,832
Shipments
%Ch Year Ago
4.8
3,729
0.9
3,639
0.6
3,638
1.4
3,654
-1.0
3,628
-2.8
3,755
-1.2
3,816
2.1
3,913
8.1
3,822
1.5
3,842
2.9
3,918
5.7
3,886
1.4
3,849
3.2
3,773
3.7
Bleached Softwood Kraft
Shipments
%Ch Year Ago
1,960
7.5
1,855
-2.0
1,839
1.6
1,822
0.7
1,839
-2.2
1,841
-3.5
1,901
1.5
1,896
1.2
1,880
1.0
1,881
-2.6
1,829
-4.2
1,825
-1.4
1,864
-4.9
1,906
2.7
1,855
0.9
Bleached Hardwood Kraft
Shipments
%Ch Year Ago
1,746
2.5
1,749
4.5
1,661
-1.9
1,688
2.8
1,685
-0.6
1,663
-3.0
1,727
-4.0
1,794
4.0
1,903
16.8
1,809
6.2
1,881
11.3
1,963
12.7
1,894
8.5
1,829
4.6
1,807
8.8
124
2.5
123
1.7
138
29.0
126
-1.6
128
12.3
122
10.9
125
-3.1
124
-10.8
128
0.8
129
1.6
129
-2.3
127
12.4
125
0.8
111
-9.8
108
-21.7
2
-77.8
2
-75.0
1
-87.5
2
-75.0
2
100.0
2
100.0
2
100.0
2
100.0
2
100.0
3
50.0
3
200.0
3
50.0
3
50.0
3
50.0
3
200.0
655
-0.6
630
-0.2
620
-3.1
623
-1.2
631
-1.7
626
-1.1
641
-4.6
645
1.6
674
4.5
603
-3.8
666
4.3
644
2.1
626
-4.5
661
4.8
Unbleached Kraft
Shipments
%Ch Year Ago
Sulfite
Shipments
%Ch Year Ago
SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION
631
To North America
%Ch Year Ago
0.3
To W. Europe
%Ch Year Ago
1,251
0.0
1,162
-5.1
1,168
-2.1
1,201
-2.7
1,180
-1.2
1,161
-1.9
1,197
-0.7
1,191
2.6
1,172
1.4
1,205
-1.3
1,188
1.2
1,222
6.0
1,179
-5.8
1,227
5.7
1,241
6.3
To E. Europe
%Ch Year Ago
101
44.2
87
6.7
103
32.0
91
7.7
93
7.9
93
21.5
105
20.5
109
33.2
102
11.5
101
12.8
121
31.0
116
34.4
108
7.5
121
38.6
106
2.8
To Lat. America
%Ch Year Ago
261
1.9
267
-4.0
266
2.1
268
2.9
270
2.3
265
3.9
276
-1.2
265
-7.2
262
-4.3
294
16.5
291
8.8
304
14.5
310
18.4
281
5.4
280
5.6
To Japan
%Ch Year Ago
158
-3.9
166
4.7
154
-10.9
165
10.1
172
4.1
167
-2.7
171
-3.4
145
-11.8
186
20.4
149
-8.7
165
2.4
167
-11.6
155
-1.6
166
-0.3
160
4.1
To China
%Ch Year Ago
992
33.9
872
11.1
814
2.8
794
15.0
819
-8.3
790
-7.7
862
-3.0
908
6.3
1152
30.2
917
1.3
908
2.6
891
-1.0
972
-2.0
927
6.3
818
0.5
464
-16.6
486
2.0
479
-1.2
437
-7.1
440
7.6
464
-1.1
471
-3.9
546
9.1
501
4.6
490
-3.9
526
5.7
506
23.6
531
14.4
468
-3.7
498
3.8
24
-1.5
27
30.3
28
15.7
25
-7.5
28
29.4
26
-0.1
32
22.8
25
4.8
25
-9.9
24
-7.5
30
35.7
22
-21.1
28
18.6
27
-0.2
25
-10.8
To Other Asia/Africa
%Ch Year Ago
To Oceania
%Ch Year Ago
* Data revised December 2006, adding estimated German BSK, removing Portugal to conform to revised industry association reporting.
** Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa,
Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. These countries represent 81% of world supply in 2006.
*** Estimated
RISI15
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 4*
Chemical Paper Grade Market Pulp
Inventory and Days of Supply
Thousand Tonnes, Seasonally Adjusted
Oct
2013
Nov
2013
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
20 Major Producing Countries**
4,034 4,043
Inventories
Days Of Supply
31.6
32.5
4,206
34.7
4,341
35.8
4,271
35.1
4,518
37.4
4,621
36.9
4,537
35.7
4,311
33.1
4,232
33.2
4,280
33.4
4,172
31.9
4,189
32.3
4,385
34.2
4,560 ***
36.3
Bleached Softwood Kraft
1,568
Inventories
Days Of Supply
24.0
1,625
26.3
1,628
26.6
1,677
27.6
1,665
27.2
1,699
27.7
1,720
27.1
1,680
26.6
1,628
26.0
1,530
24.4
1,687
27.7
1,652
27.2
1,708
27.5
1,747
27.5
1,855 ***
30.0
Bleached Hardwood Kraft
2,352
Inventories
Days Of Supply
40.4
2,353
40.4
2,440
44.1
2,502
44.5
2,517
44.8
2,694
48.6
2,748
47.7
2,648
44.3
2,503
39.5
2,503
41.5
2,442
38.9
2,428
37.1
2,325
36.8
2,451
40.2
2,486 ***
41.3
Unbleached Kraft
Inventories
Days Of Supply
110
26.6
62
15.1
135
29.3
159
37.9
86
20.2
122
30.0
150
36.0
206
49.8
177
41.5
196
45.6
148
34.4
89
21.0
153
36.7
184
49.7
216 ***
60.0
Sulfite
Inventories
Days Of Supply
4
60.0
3
45.0
3
90.0
3
45.0
3
45.0
3
45.0
3
45.0
3
45.0
3
45.0
3
30.0
3
30.0
3
30.0
3
30.0
3
30.0
3 ***
30.0
* Data revised December 2006, adding estimated German BSK, removing Portugal to conform to revised industry association reporting.
** Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa,
Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. These countries represent 81% of world supply in 2006.
*** Estimated
16RISI
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
Table 5
Market Pulp Price Summary
US Dollars per Tonne
Dec
2013
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
Jan
2015
DELIVERED TO N. EUROPE -- EFFECTIVE LIST PRICES FOR CONTRACT TRANSACTIONS
Northern
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Birch Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
905
775
730
915
770
730
920
770
730
925
765
730
925
760
725
925
750
720
925
735
710
930
725
700
930
720
695
935
725
700
935
730
705
935
740
715
935
745
720
915
745
720
Southern
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
870
720
880
720
880
720
880
715
880
710
880
710
880
700
880
690
880
685
885
690
885
695
885
705
885
715
865
715
Bl. Kraft Fluff (Untreated)
960
960
970
995
1,020
1,040
1,045
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
775
770
770
765
760
750
735
725
720
725
730
740
745
745
Bl. Hardwood CTMP
660
660
660
660
660
650
635
625
620
620
625
635
640
640
Northern
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft**
Mixed
Aspen
DELIVERED TO UNITED STATES -- EFFECTIVE LIST PRICES FOR CONTRACT TRANSACTIONS
990
860
860
860
1,010
870
870
870
1,010
870
870
870
1,030
875
875
875
1,030
875
875
875
1,030
875
875
875
1,030
870
870
870
1,030
855
855
855
1,030
840
840
840
1,030
835
835
835
1,030
835
835
835
1,025
835
835
835
1,020
835
835
835
1,010
835
835
835
Southern
Bl. Softwood Kraft
Bl. Hardwood Kraft
950
860
970
870
970
870
990
875
990
875
990
875
990
870
990
855
975
840
975
835
975
835
975
835
975
835
965
835
Bl. Kraft Fluff (Untreated)
960
960
970
995
1,020
1,040
1,045
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
1,050
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
860
870
870
870
865
855
845
830
820
815
830
840
840
850
Bl. Softwood CTMP
875
895
895
915
915
915
915
915
915
915
915
910
905
895
Deinked Pulp
770
775
775
800
800
800
800
800
800
800
795
795
795
800
DELIVERED TO CHINA -- AVERAGE PRICE-- SPOT AND CONTRACT
Northern Bl. Softwood Kraft
750
750
750
770
750
720
720
725
730
730
725
720
700
680
Bl. Radiata Pine Kraft
730
730
730
750
730
700
710
710
710
710
710
710
690
655
Bl. Eucalyptus Kraft
655
645
645
620
600
590
575
575
575
575
590
600
610
620
* Denotes revision
*** Price index discontinued as of April 2013 due to declining market size
Prices are for delivery to the paper mill in North America and CIF port for Europe and China. Prices are reported before contract
discounts or performance rebates. For North America and Europe, contract discounts are mostly in the range of 18-25% in recent
months. Discounts are currently higher in North America than in Europe. Contract discounts are smaller in some cases, especially
for purchasers of very small volumes or buyers who are locked into multi-year contracts that specify the lower discount rates
that prevailed two or three years ago. In China, contract discounts of of approximately 1-3% apply for NBSK, and 3-5% for
BEK (up to approximately 8% for the largest buyers of BEK).
Readers should note that discounts are a moving target and that information about actual discounts is closely held and hard
to uncover, so the numbers above are approximations based on ongoing discussions with buyers and seller. Differences in discounts
can also reflect differences in freight costs, rather than in differences in mill nets, so these numbers must be used with caution.
RISI17
World Pulp Monthly - January 2015
1/31/2015
Table 6
China Pulp Imports, by Supplying Region
Thousand Tonnes
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
YTD
2015
YTD
2014
%Ch
12-Mo
Total*
CHINA IMPORTS
BSK
Total
Canada
United States
South America
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Oceania/Asia/Africa
556
191
103
75
76
101
9
575
208
125
89
58
85
10
543
219
112
93
84
26
9
609
236
103
96
82
80
12
541
173
109
111
78
60
10
555
162
123
112
82
63
13
567
219
101
110
79
48
9
6,683
2,310
1,187
1,218
920
941
108
6,493
2,337
1,130
1,264
616
1,024
122
3%
-1%
5%
-4%
49%
-8%
-12%
6,683
2,310
1,187
1,218
920
941
108
BHK
Total
South America
Oceania/Asia/Africa
Eastern Europe
Canada
United States
Western Europe
568
322
185
17
1
42
1
522
322
184
10
4
1
1
572
332
201
14
1
22
1
582
334
216
18
1
12
2
643
415
199
14
3
12
1
614
402
191
13
7
1
1
732
475
210
22
10
14
1
6,997
4,201
2,314
178
52
223
29
6,435
3,352
2,296
150
197
338
102
9%
25%
1%
19%
-74%
-34%
-71%
6,997
4,201
2,314
178
52
223
29
MEC
Total
Canada
Oceania/Asia/Africa
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
United States
South America
163
132
20
1
11
0
0
151
119
19
1
12
0
0
124
101
16
0
7
0
0
135
99
23
2
11
0
0
114
90
14
1
10
0
0
105
80
22
0
4
0
0
108
80
26
0
3
0
0
1,509
1,161
215
12
120
0
1
1,387
1,113
166
22
85
0
0
9%
4%
29%
-45%
41%
202%
N.C.
1,509
1,161
215
12
120
0
1
UKP
Total
Eastern Europe
United States
South America
Oceania/Asia/Africa
Canada
Western Europe
32
8
9
8
4
3
1
44
6
11
13
5
6
3
33
6
8
9
5
4
1
40
6
9
10
5
8
1
45
12
12
10
6
5
1
45
10
12
9
7
4
3
39
8
10
11
2
8
1
507
108
118
117
89
60
15
523
106
195
117
38
53
14
-3%
2%
-39%
0%
134%
15%
2%
507
108
118
117
89
60
15
Source: China Customs Data
* Rolling 12-month total
© World Pulp Monthly provides economic analysis of the international market pulp business and is written by Kurt Schaefer, Dustin Jalbert and Minnie Kong. Subscriptions or client service: Call
866.271.8525 (USA & Canada) or +32.2.536.0748 or email [email protected]. Editorial offices: 4 Alfred Circle, Bedford, MA 01730-2340 USA. Copyright 2015 by RISI, Inc. All rights reserved. No part
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18RISI