Budget 2015: Election launchpad A Cicero Group analysis MARCH 2015 1 Foreword: Budget 2015 marks the lauchpad of the 2015 General Election. With better than projected jobs, growth and government spending data, the Chancellor is betting on the improving economy to win the Election for the Conservatives. “We set out a plan. That plan is working. Britain is walking tall again”, George Osborne proudly declared. However, despite this good news, the Chancellor knows that he has a problem. The polls are still too close to call. So far, this has been a voterless recovery. And so, the central message of this Budget that the Chancellor wants voters to remember on polling day is, “an economic plan working for you”. He is hoping that voters will dismiss Labour’s narrative on the ‘cost of living crisis’, and link his stewardship of the economy to improvements in their own personal circumstances. In that regards, today’s announcement was full of policies to turn voters’ heads. Most eye-catching was the Help to Buy ISA, targeted at first time buyers, with the Government making a maximum contribution of £3,000 on £12,000 of savings for a deposit. And there was more good news for savers with further flexibilities introduced on ISAs. The Chancellor has also significantly opened the door to greater fiscal devolution through the announcement of pilot schemes in Greater Manchester, Cambridge, Peterborough and Cheshire East to enable these areas to retain 100% of any additional business rate growth beyond expected forecasts. Ed Miliband responded effectively on what Conservative deficit reduction will mean for public service cuts in the next Parliament and focused in on safeguarding the NHS – an issue Labour continues to lead on in the polls. Ultimately, the Chancellor wants us to believe we will all be better off with his management of the economy for another 5 years. In 50 days he will find out. I hope you enjoy this Cicero Special. It reflects analysis from across our public affairs offering - financial services, energy, health and Cicero Elections. We have also included an international perspective from our Asia Pacific Director, Andrew Naylor. For further elections analysis, please see: http://ciceroelections.com/ Tom Frackowiak Executive Director Cicero Group There was also something for the crucial grey vote, as the Chancellor confirmed plans to extend pension freedoms to around 5m people who have already bought an annuity. And, as you would expect there were plenty of populist measures, such as beer duty cut by 1p a pint for the third year in a row and a freeze in fuel duty. Key to the Chancellor’s narrative is also that the economic recovery is not just about London and the South. Therefore, the northern powerhouse idea has been extended to Wales, the South West, Yorkshire and Scotland. 2 Budget Statement: Key facts Economic forecasts Economic growth is revised as follows: • 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 2016 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 2017 2.5 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 2018 Growth has also been forecast to be 2.4 per cent in 2019 Borrowing as a percentage of GDP will be the following: • • • • • 80.2 per cent in 2015-16 79.8 per cent in 2016-17 77.8 per cent in 2017-18 74.8 per cent in 2018-19 71.6 per cent in 2019-20 The Budget surplus will be reduced in 2019/20 to £7bn from a previously forecast £23bn. Business taxation • Increase the Bank Levy from 0.156% to 0.210% from 1 April 2015. • Make compensation payments non-deductible for corporation tax purposes through legislation in a future Finance Bill. • No longer allow businesses to take account of foreign branches when calculating how much VAT on overhead costs they can reclaim in the United Kingdom. • Conduct a broad review of business rates to ensure that they are fit for purpose. • • • Introduce a new children’s television tax relief from April 2015. • Introduce a new orchestra tax relief from April 2016 at a rate of 25%. • Abolish Class 2 National Insurance Contributions (NICs) in the next Parliament and will reform Class 4 to introduce a new contributory benefit test. Raised from 2.4 to 2.5 per cent in 2015 But revised down from: • • • • qualifying expenditure, and extend the high-end television tax relief. Implement a package of measures to improve the accessibility of R&D tax credits for smaller businesses. Increase the rate of film tax relief to 25% for all Personal taxation • Increase personal allowance to £10,800 in 201617 and to £11,000 in 2017-18. The Marriage Allowance will also rise in line with the personal allowance. • Higher-rate threshold will rise in line with the personal allowance, taking it to £42,700 in 2016-17 and £43,000 in 2017-18. • Introduce digital tax accounts, removing the need for annual tax returns. • Issuance of more accelerated payments notices. • Farmers will be able to average their incomes for tax purposes over five years. • Conduct a review into use of deeds of variation to cut inheritance tax. • Taken together, all the new measures against tax avoidance and evasion will raise £3.1bn over the forecast period. Tax avoidance • Legislation will be introduced in Finance Bill 2015 for a new tax on diverted profits from 1 April 2015. • Legislation will be introduced to implement the UK’s Automatic Exchange of Information Agreements and adopt the updated EU Directive on Administrative Co-operation. 3 Budget Statement: Key facts • • Introduce tougher measures for those who persistently enter into tax avoidance schemes that fail, and will develop further measures to publish the names of such avoiders and to tackle avoiders who repeatedly abuse reliefs. Toughen sanctions for those who continue to evade tax by closing the existing disclosure facilities for tax evaders early. A tougher ‘last chance’ disclosure facility will be offered between 2016 and mid-2017, with penalties of at least 30 per cent on top of tax owed and interest and with no immunity from criminal prosecutions in appropriate cases. • Widen the current scope of the Promoters of Tax Avoidance Schemes regime by bringing in promoters whose schemes are regularly defeated by HMRC. • Increase the deterrent effect by introducing a penalty based on the amount of tax that is tackled by the General Anti-Abuse Rule (GAAR). • Target structures set up so that people with only a small indirect stake in a trading company can benefit from the relief. • Ensure that entrepreneurs’ relief on the disposal of personal assets used in a business is only available when someone is making a meaningful withdrawal from that business. Business support • Increase UKTI resources to double support for UK supporters to China. • Additional funding for an ambitious series of trade missions focused on regional strengths. • Introduce an Apprenticeship Voucher, to put employers in control of the government funding for training. • Require that companies must be less than 12 years old when receiving their first Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) or Venture Capital Trust (VCT) investment, except where the investment will lead to a substantial change in the company’s activity. • Introduce a cap on total investment received under the tax-advantaged venture capital schemes of £15m, increasing to £20m for knowledge-intensive companies. • Increase the employee limit for knowledgeintensive companies to 499 employees. • Remove the requirement that 70 per cent of the funds raised under SEIS must have been spent before EIS or VCT funding can be raised. • The Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) ‘Project Innovate’ will work with HMT and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) to investigate the feasibility of developing a regulatory ‘sandbox’ for financial services innovators. • The FCA, working with the PRA, will also identify ways to support the adoption of new technologies to facilitate the delivery of regulatory requirements – so-called ‘RegTech’. Pensions and savings • Change the tax rules to allow people who are already receiving income from an annuity to sell that income to a third party, subject to agreement from their annuity provider. • Reduce the lifetime allowance for pension contributions that benefit from tax relief from £1.25m to £1m. • Index the lifetime allowance to increase annually in accordance with CPI from 6 APril 2018. • Increase the flexibility of ISAs so that savers can withdraw and replace money in the same tax year without losing the tax advantage. • Introduce a new Help to Buy ISA scheme to support those saving to buy their first home, with a maximum government bonus of £3,000 for those who save up to £12,000. 4 Budget Statement: Key facts • Introduce a new Personal Savings Allowance so that the first £1000 of savings income is tax free for basic rate taxpayers, and the first £500 for higher rate taxpayers. • The automatic deduction of 20 per cent income tax by banks and building societies on non-ISA savings will cease from April 2016. • Extend the range of ISA eligible investments in 2015-16 to include listed bonds issued by a cooperative society and community benefit society and SME securities issued by companies trading on a recognised stock exchange. • Explore further extending the list to include debt and equity securities offered via crowd funding platforms, and consult in summer 2015 alongside a response to the consultation on how to include peer-to-peer loans. Infrastructure/Housing • • • • • Designate the first 20 Housing Zones outside London, and continue to work with the other 8 shortlisted areas. £97m of funding and ring fencing of the local 50% share of business rate growth to support the London Borough of Barnet and the Greater London Authority’s (GLA) plans for the regeneration of Brent Cross. A new consultation into the compulsory purchase regime to make it clearer, faster and fairer for all parties. Target of introducing ultrafast broadband of at least 100MB per second should be available to nearly all UK premises. • Transport for the North (TfN) will shortly publish an interim report, committing to build on the concept of HS3 to develop a network of high quality rail connections across the north – the TransNorth vision. • The government will extend Enterprise Zones in Manchester and Mersey Waters. The Humber Enterprise Zone will be extended. The designation of the Leeds Enterprise Zone will be changed and the government will also extend the Enterprise Zone at Tees Valley, for oil and gas decommissioning. • A new devolution deal with the West Yorkshire Combined Authority will give West Yorkshire new powers over skills, business support and transport. • A pilot scheme in Greater Manchester, Cheshire East, Peterborough and Cambrideshire to enable the retention of 100 per cent of any additional business rate growth, starting in April 2015. • Devolved powers to the Mayor of London over planning and skills. • £1m to allow the LLC to create a comprehensive database of public sector and brownfield land. Energy • Introduction of a new Investment Allowance to stimulate investment at all stages of the North Sea industry life cycle. • Reduction in the Supplementary Charge from 30 per cent to 20 per cent and a reduction in the Petroleum Revenue Tax from 50 per cent to 35 per cent. • £20m of funding for a programme of seismic surveys to boost offshore exploration in underexplored areas of the UK Continental Shelf. An additional £16.8m of spending over the next four years for flood defences. Infrastructure/Housing • government is making funding available in 2015-16 to help progress the deal. Open negotiations with local partners and the Scottish and Welsh Governments for City Deals for Cardiff, Aberdeen and Inverness. In Inverness, the 5 Budget Statement: Key facts • New proposals for legislation in the next Parliament for competitive tendering of onshore electricity transmission infrastructure. • The government has decided to enter in to the first phase of negotiations on a Contract for Difference for Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon. Innovation/R&D • Commit £400m to 2020-21 for the next round of funding for cutting-edge scientific infrastructure. • Implement a package of measures to improve the accessibility of R&D tax credits for smaller businesses, including producing new guidance aimed at smaller firms and setting out a roadmap for further improvements over the next 2 years. • Health: The government is also committing £14m over two years to invest in an Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) in Sheffield, which will be a world-leading research centre to design, develop and implement physical activity interventions and products to improve wellbeing. • Health: The government is now committing £20m to Health North, to enable better care for patients, and to promote innovation through analysis of data on the effectiveness of different drugs, treatments and health pathways. • Finance: The government will support the development of innovative businesses across the north through an £11m investment in tech incubators in Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. This includes funding to develop an additional fintech incubator in Leeds. • Energy: The government will invest an initial £60m in a proposal by six universities across the Midlands for a new Energy Research Accelerator, a major project to develop the energy technologies of the future. As part of the government’s creation of science catapult centres across the country, it is supporting a new Energy Systems Catapult in Birmingham. • Energy: The government will extend the Oxford Science Vale Enterprise Zone for advanced energy, space and satellite science, and will extend Discovery Park Enterprise Zone, subject to a business case, allowing it to expand its operations in life sciences and environmental technologies. • Motor: £100m for Research and Development into Intelligent Mobility and driverless cars. • Tech: £40m for demonstrator programmes, business incubator space and a research hub to develop applications for Internet of Things technologies in healthcare and social care, and Smart Cities. Higher education/academia • Remove the arbitrary cap on university student numbers for 2015-16. • Assess options to strengthen partnerships and cofounding between government, industry and charities. • Introduce income-contingent loans of up to £25,000 to support PhDs and research-based masters degrees. • Review the availability of capital gains tax (CGT) entrepreneurs’ relief on disposals by academics of shares in such companies. 6 Budget Statement: Financial sector overview In some senses, this Budget marks a return to some form of normality for the financial sector, with no major overhaul of regulation and no product lines getting walloped by an unexpected change in policy. That doesn’t mean it was a non-event for the sector – in fact some of the most eye-catching initiatives announced related directly to products and services the sector provides. However, notwithstanding another tax hit for the banks, there was a sense that for the first time this Parliament the sector is being considered as part of the solution rather than part of the problem. A savings culture Possibly the most eye-catching initiatives in the Budget Statement were those aimed at building what the Chancellor called a ‘savings culture’. The decision to allow 5 million pensioners access to their annuities without incurring a punitive 55 per cent tax rate was already known but was reiterated today. Instead savers will pay the marginal rate. Steps are also being taken to create a secondary market in annuities, a consultation for which was launched today. There were three further policies which will cheer savers. First, a major new flexibility in the ISA regime allowing savers to withdraw and replace money in the same tax year without losing the tax advantage – a change that makes ISAs an even more attractive option for savers. Second, the Chancellor announced a new ‘Help To Buy ISA’, where the government will provide 25 per cent matching for first time buyers saving for a deposit up to a maximum government contribution of £3,000. The Chancellor said that this will be ready for the autumn. Finally, the introduction of a Personal Savings Allowance will mean income on the first £1000 of savings will be tax free. For higher rate payers, this allowance will be reduced to £500. The Chancellor said that this will take 95 per cent of savers out of paying tax on their savings. However, what one hand giveth, the other taketh away. Following the shock announcement of pension freedoms in last year’s budget and the big increase in ISA limits, there was some speculation that the Chancellor might abolish the costly higher rate relief on pension contributions as well. That was unlikely and, having resisted doing it in the darkest days of the recession, it would be odd to upset a core Tory constituency just before an election. And so it proved. Rather, the Chancellor has reduced the lifetime contribution allowance for pensions contributions reduced from £1.25 million to £1 million next year. This will be indexed from 2018. Financial innovation and competition The Government published Banking for the 21st Century, setting out its plans for a modern, competitive banking sector that encourages new entrant banks and non-traditional finance players such as peer-topeer lenders. Announcements include: • • • • • • Digital currencies: Extending anti money laundering rules to digital currency exchanges and investing £10 million in research on the are Current account switching: The government’s midata tool will go live on 26 March alongside a comparison tool from Gocompare Mortgages: CML and Which? have published an interim report on transparency and standardisation of lending fees ahead of final conclusions in July British Business Bank: Will shortly be inviting expressions of interest from Credit Reference Agencies and finance platforms that wish to be designated by HM Treasury to receive SME data from banks Payments: Confirmation that the new Payment Systems Regulator will become fully operational from 1 April Financial Regulation: The Financial Conduct Authority’s ‘Project Innovate’ will work with HMT and the Prudential Regulation Authority to investigate the feasibility of developing a regulatory ‘sandbox’ for financial services innovators. The FCA, working with the PRA, will also identify ways to support the adoption of new technologies to facilitate the delivery of regulatory requirements – so-called ‘RegTech’ 7 Budget Statement sector overview: Financial sector The Government has made much of its desire to make the UK a hub for financial technology. One area which might seem prosaic but could prove to be significant is a commitment to deliver an open Application Programming Interface standard in UK banking. An API allows organisations to share computerised data in a standardised format. This would allow FinTech companies to interface directly with banks, opening the possibility for new, more convenient financial services. In the long-term this could have a very substantial impact on the UK financial services landscape. Public finances This was not a cheap Budget for the banking sector. We saw the time-honoured increase in the Bank Levy, this time to 0.21% - which will cost the banks a further £900m a year. The Chancellor also announced that compensation paid to customers that have been missold products such as PPI will no longer be deductible from corporation tax bills. This will raise a further £5.3bn across the forecast at the cost of bank profits. The Government’s exit from its investment in Lloyds continues, with a further £9bn of disposals planned this year. It also announced the sale of £13bn mortgage assets the government acquired as part of the failure of Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock. This will be used to pay down debt. John Rowland Executive Director Cicero Group 8 Budget Statement sector overview: Energy Although light on industry-specific measures, this Budget spells good news for a number of areas of the energy and infrastructure sectors. Despite being trailed as the flagship energy announcement, the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon project received barely a passing mention by the Chancellor. However, the confirmation that the Government is entering negotiations on a Contract for Difference (CfD) is not industrially or politically insignificant. The scheme promises to underpin domestic renewable technology innovation and magnify the UK’s worldleading reputation in the industry, while representing a win for the Coalition’s minority party given the scheme’s long term support from the Lib Dem Energy Secretary Ed Davey. This minor ‘green overture’ from the Chancellor, however, paled in comparison to the Budget’s measures in support of North Sea operators. Answering industry calls for a more substantial reduction in the Supplementary Charge than the 2 per cent announced in the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor delivered the expected 10 per cent reduction to 20 per cent and a reduction in the Petroleum Revenue Tax from 50 per cent to 30 per cent. These tax cuts were paired with the introduction of a new Investment Allowance and a £20m programme of seismic surveys aimed at securing continued industry commitments in the face of decreasing investment appetite in the Continental Shelf. These commitments to the North Sea are additionally politically astute. Although they open the Government up to criticism from strong proponents of the decarbonisation agenda, the continued economic vitality of Scotland’s North East is intrinsically linked to staving off the ever-growing confidence of the Scottish nationalists. This Budget extends beyond North Sea operators and the burgeoning tidal lagoon industry though. A new exemption to the Carbon Price Floor for combined heat and power plants was introduced, which is expected to benefit 18 plants across the Midlands, while energy intensive manufacturers were gifted an acceleration of the delivery – to 2015-16 – of compensation for small-scale feed in tariffs (FITs). Energy technology and innovation was boosted through a £60m investment in a new Energy Research Accelerator, the establishment of a new Energy Systems Catapult in Birmingham and an alteration of the designation of the Leeds Enterprise Zone to focus on energy and waste technology businesses. Additionally Oxford science Vale Enterprise Zone will be extended to include energy science. Consumers, also known as voters, were neither ignored nor forgotten. The introduction of competitive tendering of onshore electricity transmission infrastructure now facing the onshore wind farm industry is wrapped in the language of delivering consumer savings; while the announcement to popularly scrap September’s anticipated fuel duty rise was delivered with a dedicated election slogan: “Ten pounds off a tank with the Tories!” Although energy policy has not formed the centre piece of this Budget, the Government has both eyes on May 7 now – and uncertainty for the energy sector may yet lie ahead. Sebastian Damberg-Ott Energy Account Executive Cicero Group The Chancellor was not subtle in highlighting this calculation, boldly claiming that an independent Scotland could “never have been able to afford such a package of support.” 9 Budget Statement sector overview: Healthcare George Osborne’s last budget before the general election, which looms ominously over Westminster, contained little on the NHS, other than to remind us of the efficiencies and savings needed. However, there was a strong focus on boosting science and innovation in the regions and globally, and the theme of advanced manufacturing was touched upon throughout the body of the budget. Key healthcare announcements Once again the biggest funding announcement, £1.25 billion for children’s mental health services, was set out before Osborne’s speech. Ever keen to link his party to investments and innovations in mental health, Nick Clegg used his party’s spring conference to preannounce this extra funding. • Politically this is seen as a win for the Liberal Democrats, or at least it will be portrayed as such over the next 50 days. Notably, a funding increase of over a billion pounds was not included in Osborne’s speech, but appears in the accompanying ‘red book’. Perhaps the more note worthy announcements came in the form of science and innovation commitments. Although small in monetary terms, their cumulative impact is clear: the Conservatives are serious about investing in science and technology to boost the economy, as well as the nation’s health. This included £14 million for the Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) in Sheffield, to research physical activity interventions and products to improve wellbeing, and £20 million to Health North to promote innovation through analysis of data on the effectiveness of different drugs, treatments and health pathways. A further proposal to help PhD students and to double funding to UK Trade and Investment’s activities in China (including a focus on healthcare and life sciences) shows a commitment across the value chain; from training researchers, to developing research and to ultimately commercialising products. • • • • • • • • • • Continuation of the NHS Procurement and Efficiency Board’s work to deliver efficiency savings, including in procurement, pharmacy and property. In the final year of this decade, 2019-20, public spending will grow in line with the growth of the economy. £1m to help buy defibrillators for public places, including schools, and support training in their use to save more lives. £14m over two years to invest in an Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) in Sheffield, which will be a world-leading research centre to design, develop and implement physical activity interventions and products to improve wellbeing. £20m to Health North, to enable better care for patients, and to promote innovation through analysis of data on the effectiveness of different drugs, treatments and health pathways. Income-contingent loans of up to £25,000 to support PhDs and research-based masters degrees. A near doubling of funding for UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) activities in China, including a focus on the advanced manufacturing, transport, financial services, healthcare and life sciences sectors. £1.25bn of new funding for children’s mental health services, spread over five years. An additional £8.4m over the next 5 years to allow the NHS across England to enhance current mental health and support services to the most vulnerable veterans. New helicopters for the Essex & Herts, East Anglian, Welsh and Scottish air ambulances. Refund VAT to ‘blood bike charities’. Fiona Cohen Head of Healthcare Cicero Group The focus on research gives the announcements a harder, economic edge. Osborne is clear to his Lib Dem counterparts: you can take mental health, but I’m having science and innovation. 10 Budget Statement: An international perspective Budget Day is a major political event in any jurisdiction but the drama and pre-budget build-up in the UK is unmatched anywhere else in the world. There were certainly no news helicopters hovering over Singapore’s Parliament whilst Tharman Shanmugaratnam delivered the city-state’s annual Budget a couple of weeks ago. At Cicero’s Asia Pacific office we have been closely following four Budgets over the few weeks – Hong Kong, Singapore, India and China have all recently released their annual fiscal and spending projections. It’s the differences in the scale of total government spending that marks some of these budgets apart. India’s Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu recently announced an additional $137bn of investment in his country’s railway network. For real comparisons though we need to look at government spending as a % of GDP. This is arguably the main issue of the forthcoming UK General Election. The Chancellor grandly announced ‘we will end this Parliament with Britain’s national debt share falling’. There is a prevailing view in Asia that Asian countries have been more prudent with their finances, and that the wealth of Western nations including Britain has been built on the crumbling foundations of credit. But a closer look at finances in Asia reveals a rather mixed picture. Country Government debt % GDP (World Bank, 2012) Tax revenue % GDP (World Bank, 2012) Gross savings % GDP (World Bank, 2012) 2015 GDP growth predictions (IMF, 2014) UK 97 25 13 2.7 China 23* 11 (2011) 51 6.8 Hong Kong SAR 32* 14 (2010)** 27 3.3 India 50 11 30 6.3 Japan 196 10 22 0.6 Korea, Republic of 34* 14 (2011) 35 4.0 Singapore 111 14 48 3.0 *Gross Government Debt % GDP (IMF, 2012) ** Tax Revenue & GDP (IMF, 2010) Whilst Britain’s finances are more precarious than government finances in Asia, debt levels in Asia are rising and many are starting to predict this this region is heading for trouble. China concluded its National People’s Congress last weekend with a warning that the world should get used to a new normal of lower Chinese growth. Debt, particularly at the local government level, has exploded over the last five years as the government sought to sustain economic growth after Western consumption levels fell. This is unsustainable and the Chinese government is starting to cut back. Singapore has today just downgraded its economic growth forecast. Again, government investment (particularly in infrastructure) has been propping up the economic growth of late. Two announcements that will have relevance for Britain’s relationship with Asia are increased resources for UKTI / China-British Business Council and the government’s decision to be a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Set up by China, this new multilateral development bank has both financial and geopolitical significance. Concern about US influence over the World Bank, and US and Japanese influence over the Asian Development Bank based in Manila, has prompted China to set up a rival institution which it hopes will become a channel of Chinese influence in the region. Whilst the creation of an additional source of development funding is welcome – estimates suggest that Asia needs an additional $50bn of funding for infrastructure each year to meet the region’s connectivity needs, the decision by the UK government to join is not without controversy. Australia has been debating whether to join and our biggest ally, the US, is suspicious of China’s intentions. Many say that in the 21st Century the UK’s place in the world is diminished to all but irrelevance. The headlines suggest not. The UK Budget is still of interest worldwide – a quick sweep of the headlines in Asia suggests that the UK Budget is still a newsworthy event overseas. The media in Asia tend to be less antagonistic than their UK peers when it comes to reporting their own national Budgets. Recent headlines in Singapore included ‘Innovative jubilee budget makes Singapore future’ and ‘Government shapes the Budget in the interest of Singapore’s future’. Even the Speaker of Singapore’s Parliament Halimah Yacob got in on the act by summing up the Budget debate with the statement that ‘there is a general consensus that this budget has indeed lived up to its name of being a jubilee budget to prepare us for the future and to build a fair and inclusive society’. We will have to wait a few days to hear Lindsay Hoyle’s remarks (although one expects he will appreciate the political neutrality required of his office). Whilst the Chancellor won’t be holding his breath he can take comfort in how the Straits Times is covering the UK Budget. Singapore’s main quality daily is currently leading with the headline ‘Britain upgrades election year growth forecast’. Andrew Naylor Executive Director Cicero Group 11 Budget Statement - Cicero Elections analysis This was everything a political speech should be: A well-balanced blend of tough talk and electoral treats. But the challenge now comes as the Opposition and press get to counter. As the ‘no gimmicks’ Budget took pennies off pints and told us the Tories had “put a tenner in the tank”, the Chancellor skimmed around two key issues: where the necessary cuts will fall in the next parliament, and what more the Tories would do for the NHS. The Conservatives’ task now is to sell their wares. Positive jobs and growth statistics have failed to really lift Tory polling figures over the last two years, so they will be looking to these policies to cut-through the public conscience. These policies fit within the Conservatives’ overarching narrative of giving people greater control of their lives: whether it’s letting people keep more of their paycheque, or empower how they save and invest. The Tories are hoping that people link the party with this empowerment, and trust them with their vote, as the Conservatives have trusted them with their policies. However, this was a coalition budget, and two parties had skin in the game when the Chancellor stood up, and the Liberal Democrats have their own plan for leveraging this Budget. Tomorrow, in an unprecedented move, Danny Alexander will set out an ‘alternative’ Liberal Democrat Budget statement, clearly emphasising their different priorities and outlining areas where the Lib Dems would either go further or put a brake on Tory plans. But today’s statement by the Chancellor already had significant Liberal fingerprints on it – so much so that the DPM even felt able to turn up for the statement. Accelerating the personal tax allowance increase, increasing spending on mental health services and tougher action on tax evasion and avoidance are all policies with a distinctly yellow tint. On the latter, the confirmation of tough penalties for firms who facilitate and promote aggressive tax avoidance is a bonus for the Lib Dems since it was first mooted by the Chief Secretary some weeks back, who said it would appear either in the Budget or the Lib Dem manifesto. Many assumed it would be relegated to the latter. Despite their ‘wins’ in this Budget, the biggest challenge for the Lib Dems will be ensuring they get the credit where it’s due in the eyes of the public. There has long been frustration around the personal tax allowance increases, a policy George Osborne now covets as his own. Tomorrow’s alternative Lib Dem Budget statement is an initiative they may wish they’d enacted five years ago – had they done so, the clear yellow water may have been more visible all along, and their Election prospects perhaps not quite so gloomy. The Cicero Elections Team If Osborne’s political strategy was to use his final budget of this Parliament to blunt Labour’s election campaign attack lines, it’s going to fall short. The Chancellor had the Labour strategy in his sights, but his firing seemed to be going off at half-cock. significant NHS pledge in the budget. The debate on living standards comes down to an argument over which measures to use. That will sail above the heads of most voters, and confirm suspicions that politicians just spin the figures. The Chancellor opted to double down on his existing strong lines: the macro economy - recovery, jobs, deficit reduction, low inflation, growth. Labour has retained all its lines: the micro economy – low pay, job insecurity, living standards, together with fairness, looming cuts and the future of the NHS. Critically for Ed Miliband, the Conservative’s hefty spending cuts planned for 2016 and 2017 remain in place (even if things ease off thereafter). Polling shows the public to be anxious about further deep cuts. Labour’s campaign opportunity here remains in play. Perhaps most surprisingly of all, Labour’s trump card – the NHS – retains its full value. The Chancellor strangely passed on the opportunity to make a Ed Miliband saw his opportunity, and immediately linked the last two, launching his NHS ‘secret plan’ charge against the Conservatives. We have 50 days more of the arguments already in play. James Plaskitt Senior Counsel Cicero Group 12 Yatterbox is a social media monitoring service that identifies and tracks key influencers and commentators who impact your organisation and its reputation. What the 4,000 policy influencers in Yatterbox said about the Budget Issue Top positive tweets Taxation Lorely Burt MP (Liberal Democrat) @LorelyBurt Simplifying tax and cracking down on the dodgers - big @LibDems win for #Budget2015 Savings Mark Wallace (ConservativeHome) @wallaceme More freedoms for savers - some compensation for the pain of low interest rates #Budget2015 Energy Cheryl Gillan MP (Conservative) @CherylGillanMP “@hmtreasury: We are opening negotiations on the Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon #Budget15 ” better option than Severn barrage Issue Top negative tweets Help to Buy ISAs Andrew Neil (BBC) @afneil Was the rabbit Help to Buy ISAs -- quite a small rabbit ... NHS Alison Seabeck MP (Labour) @alisonseabeck Sharp work by @Ed_Miliband highlighting deep future cuts Chancellor omitted to mention. No mention of NHS in budget speech Energy Caroline Lucas MP (Green Party) @CarolineLucas Eye-watering tax breaks for oil & gas companies. Climate vandalism from Chancellor just weeks after cross-party #climate pledge #Budget2015 Total #Budget2015 mentions 0 5,000 Top buzzwords 10,000 130,140 All of Twitter Journalists 5853 MPs Long term economic plan 70 Northern Powerhouse 40 Britain walking tall 32 880 Devolved institutions 75 Peers 31 Most policymakers and journalists use social media. To get alerted when they mention your issues sign up for a free trial at www.yatterbox.com 13 Cicero Group is an integrated communications agency specialising in corporate PR, Government relations, digital communications and market research aimed at business, consumer and policy audiences. This means we understand more than any other agency the complex interaction between media, politics and policy. We have offices in London, Brussels, New York and Singapore. Communications and PR expertise Cicero has strong media and PR experience, having worked across print, broadcast and online media for a number of clients. Cicero maintains strong relationships with target media to ensure a best-in-class offering for clients. Cicero’s communications team has worked with major organisations in the UK and beyond, and has worked with BBC News, Sky News, Bloomberg, Reuters, all leading national newspapers and trade outlets. Government relations Cicero was founded in 2000 and has grown from one client in the UK to more than 200 in 22 countries around the world today. Our public affairs business works across retail and investment banking, commodities, insurance and asset management. Cicero was named Public Affairs News Specialist Consultancy of the Year in 2011 and 2012. Political monitoring and intelligence Novares, Cicero’s market-leading public policy intelligence tool, is the foundation of our monitoring and intelligence offering. Services we provide include: Bespoke monthly issue-tracking grids; In-depth analysis of set-piece events; and Verbal consultant reports and under-the-radar intelligence based on Cicero’s wide contact base with Government, Parliament, Whitehall, regulators, thinktanks, and industry sources. Digital For a communications strategy to be successful in today’s world of 24-hour media, integration with digital media is essential, particularly through social media. Cicero’s digital team has worked with leading financial services organisations, including GE and Invesco Perpetual, to deliver digital media monitoring, consultancy and execution to ensure effective delivery of key messages online. Thought leadership Cicero has managed thought leadership projects since 2000. In overseeing every aspect of the project, from initial questionnaire design through to results, analysis and reporting, we attempt to ensure that the client is able to generate as many outcomes as possible. Cicero has previously undertaken thought leadership projects for organisations including HSBC, AXA, Scottish Widows and HM Treasury. Design In a world where design is playing an ever increasing role in the success of businesses and companies, we recognise that communication needs to be clear, quick and simple. Our corporate background means we see the bigger picture and can integrate design throughout the process. We implement communication strategies in new and engaging ways, while managing your reputation through clear and consistent design. Contact us Please contact Tom Frackowiak with any further questions. [email protected] +(0)20 7297 5966 +(0)7554 661500 @CiceroGlobal 14 www.cicero-group.com
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