World Car Trends 2014
“Smart Efficiency and Digital Intelligence”
New York, April 2014
World Car Trends 2014
Global Expert Community
Global Media Trends
69 Top Automotive Journalists
TV, Print, Online
News Channels
All World Car Jurors
Blogs, Forums, Networks
Social Channels
Top 25 markets
All automotive brands [> 150] and models
Countries
Brands
World Car Trends 2014 | Summary
Introduction
The World Car Awards brings together top journalists
from all over the world. PRIME Research combines the
expertise of this panel with our industry-leading media
study on over 150 brands across 25 markets globally.
Automotive Trends 2014
Efficiency, lightweight materials, design, connectivity and
new energy powertrains are the most important
automotive trends for 2014. These trends form part of a
bigger picture within the automotive industry, “the
efficiency cluster” which we at PRIME call “Smart
Efficiency”.
“Smart Efficiency”
Smart Efficiency is driven by a variety of related
technologies like the downsizing of engines, while
improving power and performance, significant weight
reduction and more stability, improved aerodynamics
while increasing desirability and new energy
powertrains; particularly plug-in hybrids.
Lightweight Constructions
Lightweight materials are currently in the spotlight. Once
reserved for premium cars, the Ford F150 has brought
aluminium to the mass market, and the BMW i3 has
positioned carbon fibre as a material manageable and
suitable for premium cars.
The Electric Vehicle Recession?
After the hype in 2012, Electric vehicles are currently
losing some momentum.
Plug-in hybrids are seen as the most promising electric
drivetrain option for 2014, however the onset of
premium electric vehicles driven by the BMW i3 and
Tesla Model S bring electric vehicles back into the
spotlight. Coverage around these two models accounts
for over 40% of all media coverage on electric
vehicles. Our expert community evaluates these two
models far better than first and second generation EVs.
“Digital Intelligence”
Connectivity and in-car electronics rank as the fourth
most important trend, with infotainment and
connectivity systems seen as increasingly significant.
Digital intelligence is describing a major macro trend of
the years to come. Tech giants such as Apple, Google &
Microsoft have now joined the game: teaming up with
automotive brands to create the next generation of
digital cars.
“Smart Efficiency” and “Digital Intelligence” represent key
trends in the industry for 2014. Utilising these trends is
the challenge for the automotive industry today and in
the near future.
3
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
Efficiency is the top trend in 2014
The current “efficiency cluster“ is driven by downsizing of engines, lightweight constructions, improved
aerodynamics and plug-in hybrids.
1
Efficiency
2
Lightweight Materials
3
Design
4
Connectivity
Top 5
Trends
2014
Plug-in Hybrids
5
Battery Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cell
New Energy Cars
Quality
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
0%
?
5%
10%
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2014?”
15%
20%
25%
30%
5
Lightweight is the top emerging trend in 2014
The importance of lightweight constructions and materials has been on the increase since 2012.
2012
2013
2014
Efficiency
Connectivity
Efficiency
Connectivity
Efficiency
Lightweight
Materials
New Energy
Cars
New Energy
Cars
Design
Design
Design
Connectivity
Budget Cars
Lightweight
Materials
Safety
Budget Cars
Quality
Quality
Quality
Safety
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
Car Sharing
Lightweight
Materials
8
Car Sharing
0%
?
10%
20%
30%
New Energy
Cars
5
0%
10%
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?”
2
20%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
6
Engine downsizing is seen as the most promising weight saver
Two important shifts in perception – the Ford F150 for aluminium and the BMW i3 for carbon fibre.
mixed
good
very good
Downsizing of Engines /
Powertrains
The actual downsizing of an engine for weight
reduction is seen as the most promising
technology to save weight.
Aluminium
The new Ford F-150 shifts the image of aluminium
from a rather exclusive to a more volume
material for weight-saving.
Material-Mix
Clever material mix is seen as a very promising
option for weight saving.
Carbon Fibre
The BMW i3 could change the perception of
carbon fibre: from an expensive and exclusive to
an affordable, mass-market material for weightsaving.
High Strength Steel
0
?
High strength steels are still evaluated very
positively, but are seen due to the already wide
use within the industry as a kind of maxed out
option for weight saving.
2014
Expert Panel
1
“From your point of view, what are the most promising lightweight technologies?”
2
3
7
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
Electric vehicle recession?
After the hype in 2012, electric vehicles finally arrived in ”reality“ – but electric vehicles are still among the
top 5 most important trends within the industry.
2012
2013
2014
Efficiency
Connectivity
Efficiency
Connectivity
Efficiency
Lightweight
Materials
New Energy
Cars
3
New Energy
Cars
3
Design
Design
Design
Connectivity
Budget Cars
Lightweight
Materials
New Energy
Cars
Safety
Budget Cars
Quality
Quality
Quality
Safety
Lightweight
Materials
Safety
Budget Cars
Car Sharing
Car Sharing
Car Sharing
0%
?
10%
20%
30%
0%
10%
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013 / 2014?”
20%
30%
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
9
Visibility of EVs is pushed by Tesla Model S and BMW i3
Out of more than 250 EV models in 2013-2014, the Tesla Model S and BMW i3 combined account for more
than 40% of all coverage. Almost every second electric vehicle story is about either one of them.
2013-2014
Media Panel | Share of coverage
12%
Emerging Trend
Hype
Slowdown
Tesla and BMW i
game changer?
Other EVs
58.3%
9%
6%
4,8%
5,1%
4,6%
4,8%
4,8%
2,9%
BMW i3
21.3%
3%
Tesla Model S
20.4%
100% = Total e-car coverage in 2013/2014
2,0%
42%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year
2014
100% = Total electric vehicle coverage in 2013/2014
10
PHEVs remain the most promising electric drivetrain option
However, BEV are experiencing a new momentum through premium electric vehicles.
very poor
mixed
very good
Plug-in hybrids
Is the Tesla Model S a game changer? Combining
zero emissions with a good range and breathtaking
sports car performance.
Electric vehicles with
range extender
► New momentum through premium electric vehicles.
2013
Expert Panel
3
Battery electric vehicles
2014
Expert Panel
2013
2014
► But safety issues remain.
Fuel cell vehicles
-3
?
-2
-1
0
1
2
“From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?”
3
11
Tesla and BMW with outstanding EV reputation
BEV gain credit in 2014 due to i3 and Tesla Model S – Premium electric vehicles might be the game changer
in the future.
very poor
1
Tesla Model S
2
BMW i3
mixed
very good
Premium electric vehicles
Second generation
and
compact
electric vehicles
First Generation
and
low budget
electric vehicles
“Compromised“ electric vehicles
2014
Expert Panel
-3
?
-2
-1
0
“How would you rate the following e-cars from a general perspective?”
1
2
3
12
Norway: Tesla achieves an 11% market share in March ‘14
Exponential growth of EVs in Norway; especially the Tesla Models S due to generous government subsidiaries.
Electric vehicles registration figures in Norway
12.000
›
EVs in Norway
achieved a 5.6%
market share in 2013.
›
No purchase tax, no
VAT, no tolls are
making EVs very
attractive.
›
Free and extra parking
areas for EVs.
›
EV infrastructure.
›
Clean Norwegian
energy production.
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
13
Norway with pioneering character regarding E-Mobility
The former benchmark market for E-Mobility, Japan, slightly loses the confidence of the expert community
and remains on one level with Germany and the USA.
very poor
mixed
very good
Norway
Japan
Germany
USA
The Tesla factor
France
›
›
Supercharger
infrastructure
Plans for
battery
gigafactory
UK
Ambitious plans, limited
momentum
China
›
?
Italy
2013
Expert Panel
Spain
2014
Expert Panel
“Which markets will be the key drivers for e-mobility?”
›
5 million e-cars in
2020
New joint-venture
brands arrive
›
Denza
›
Zinoro
14
Fuel-Cell with chances in the long run
In the last 10 years, Honda showed the strongest ambitions of all manufacturers regarding fuel cell
technology, followed by Hyundai/Kia and Mercedes-Benz.
Fuel-Cell “Hype“ period
Attention-shift to BEV
Re-Focus on FCEV
Comeback as “Next Generation EV“?
Most major manufacturers focus on FCEV
as battery technology is not improving fast
enough and the range issue as well as high
costs are thought hard to be solved.
First volume BEV appear on the
market and the BEV hype begins.
Manufacturers shift their focus on
battery electric vehicles rather than
continuing their FCEV strategy.
Especially Hyundai/Kia continues to
focus on FCEV and in 2014
announcements of affordable FCEV
in series strongly increase.
FCEV in series (announcements):
Hyundai/Kia: 2014 | Toyota: 2015 | Honda: 2016 | Daimler: 2017
1,0%
0,8%
0,6%
0,4%
0,6%
0,5%
0,6%
0,5%
0,4%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
0,1%
100% = all automotive coverage in respective year
0,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
15
Content
1. Top Automotive Trends
2. New Energy Cars
3. The “Digital Car“
Connectivity is already a key factor in evaluating a car
For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in evaluating a
car.
“Yes, as it becomes a priority for young
buyers.”
Increasingly
“It is becoming a key factor, because
younger people do not care about
powertrains, maximum speed and
emotional driving anymore.”
[42%]
Already
[29%]
“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity is not
critical. It's also very difficult to
communicate, given that average readers
just want to know if they can plug the
phone in or not.”
?
No
[12%]
2013 Expert Panel: “Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?”
Not yet
[17%]
“Not yet but is going to grow once they
sort out the basics.”
17
In-car electronics and connectivity are increasingly important
Exponential increase of media attention to in-car electronics and connectivity.
Top Connectivity Trends
Media Panel | Share of coverage
12%
Internet-based
Infotainment
Systems
In-car electronics play an increasingly
important role within the product
strategy.
9%
Driver Assistance
6,4%
6%
Navigation
3,9%
3%
1,5%
1,5%
Communication
0,1%
0,1%
0,2%
0,1%
2013
Expert Panel
0,2%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
20%
40%
60%
100% = all coverage about “product strategy“ in respective year
?
2013 expert panel: What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”
18
The “digital” car | > 100 million lines of code
Cars are no longer only hardware, they are also software products. Cars already have more lines of code
than aircrafts and operating systems like Windows 8 or Apple Tiger.
100.000.000
90.000.000
80.000.000
F35 Fighter Jet
70.000.000
60.000.000
Boeing 787
50.000.000
40.000.000
US Military Drone
30.000.000
20.000.000
F22 Raptor Fighter
Jet
10.000.000
0
Car Software and its
“lines of code”
of average modern
high-end-car
Space Shuttle
19
Silicon Valley is moving in on the car industry
Google is clearly seen as the key driver for the “digital car”. Apple and Microsoft are seen as more
conservative.
passive/conservative
pro-active/aggressive
“Fiat spent years betting on the wrong Microsoft horse.”
The Ford Sync system is also far away from being
benchmark:
“Ford, with its hopeless voice command system, small
screens and convoluted programming if you can't get
the voice commands to work.”
2014
Expert Panel
0
?
1
“Which IT companies will be the key drivers for the “digital car”?”
2
3
20
Autonomous driving wins credit in 2014
Overall, safety related driver assistance systems are evaluated much more positively than comfort features.
not important at all
mixed
very important
Brake Assist Systems
Pre-Crash Systems
Intelligent Lights
Pedestrian Detection
Blind Spot Detection
Adaptive Cruise Control
Automated Crash Reporting
Traffic Sign Recognition
Attention Assist
2013
Expert Panel
Nightvision Systems
Lane Keeping Systems
2014
Expert Panel
Park Assist
Autonomous Driving
-3
?
-2
-1
0
“How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?”
1
2
3
21
Autonomous cars are expected within the next 5 years
The world car experts are anticipating autonomous cars in series production within the next five years.
5 Years
2014
?
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
“When do you expect to see fully autonomous driving cars in series production?”
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
22
Key markets for autonomous driving are USA, Germany, Japan
Due to high costs and the need for infrastructure, autonomous driving will be strongly pushed by the most
developed car markets.
reluctant
passive/conservative
pro-active/aggressive
USA
USA, Germany and Japan are clearly
seen as the key markets for
autonomous driving.
Germany
Japan
UK
France
China
Italy
2014
Expert Panel
Spain
-3
?
-2
-1
“Which markets will be the key drivers for autonomous driving?”
0
1
2
3
23
Challenges to autonomous driving
Legislation is seen as the biggest challenge to autonomous driving, closely followed by infrastructure and
industry standards for Car-to-Car and Car-to-X communications.
mixed
important
very important
Legislation (on federal & national level)
Infrastructure Investments
Industry standards for Car-to-Car
and Car-to-X communications
Consumer Acceptance
Integrity of Technology
New Business Models & Scenarios
2014
Expert Panel
Automotive Ecosystem (new players)
0
?
1
“How important are the following challenges enabling autonomous driving from your point of view?”
2
3
24
Safety is key to consumer acceptance of autonomous driving
However, extra costs are seen as the second most important factor to clear the way for autonomous cars.
mixed
important
very important
Safety is the key to consumer acceptance of autonomous
driving.
Safety / crash elimination
Extra cost
Reduced travel times
Comfort
City motorists in Europe and the US waste Ø 60-80 hours
per year in congestion.
Increased productivity
(work while driving)
Data protection
Improved energy efficiency
Reduced need for new
infrastructure
New models of vehicle ownership
(e.g. car sharing)
2014
Expert Panel
0
?
1
2
3
“How important are the following factors from your point of view regarding the consumer acceptance of autonomous driving?”
25
Contact
PRIME Mainz (Germany)
PRIME Oxford (UK)
PRIME Ann Arbor (USA)
PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)
PRIME New York (USA)
PRIME Shanghai (China)
PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)
PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)
PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay)
Dr. Rainer Mathes
Bernd Hitzemann
Jens Meiners
PRIME Research
PRIME Research
World Car Awards
Chairman
Project Director
Director Steering Committee World Car Awards
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]