EU INDC and EU view on the 2015 agreement Mr Zsolt Lengyel, Team Leader & Key Expert 24 April 2015, Kyiv “Discussion on participation of Ukraine in the 2015 Global Climate Change Agreement with a focus on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) in Ukraine” roundtable Content of presentation 1. The foundations of EU climate and energy policy 2. The process and politics of setting a long term target through the EU 2030 Climate and Energy package 3. Communicating and finalizing the EU's 2030 target as an INDC under the 2015 Agreement The mitigation context – Limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius EU climate and energy policy up to 2020: Greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 5.800 CP1 C.sinks 5.600 CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms 5.400 Overachievement CP1: 4.3 GtCO2 eq 5.000 4.800 Potential Overachievement CP2: 4.600 1.5 GtCO2 eq 4.400 Total : 4.200 5.8 GtCO2 eq 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 4.000 KP BY Mt CO2 equivalent 5.200 EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012) Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020) Successful decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions (1)* Over the period 1990-2012, the combined GDP of the EU and Iceland grew by more than 44%, while GHG emissions decreased by 19%. As a result, the combined greenhouse gas emission emission intensity of the EU and Icelandic economies, was reduced by almost half between 1990 and 2012. Decoupling between emission and growth occurred in all Member States and in Iceland. Decoupling has progressed steadily since 1990. The annual reduction rate per Member State varied between 0.9% and 5.1% per year. As a result, the EU GHG emission intensity is one of the lowest among major economies in the world. * Source: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/docs/e u_submission_20140430_technical_annex_en.pdf Successful decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions (2) Recent analysis shows that structural policies implemented in the field of climate and energy (in particular policies resulting in improvements in energy intensity of the economy and a higher share of renewables) have contributed more than half of the EU emission reduction between 2008 and 2012. The economic crisis has contributed less than half of the reduction during this period. In 2012, in the EU-28 and Iceland, total greenhouse gas emissions per capita were at the level of 9 tonnes CO2-eq, and decreased by 24% compared to 1990, down from 12 tonnes CO2-eq. 24 Member States and Iceland experienced a reduction in per capita emissions between 1990 and 2012. 2030 Framework: Agreed headline targets 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy 2020 2030 -20 % Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20% Renewable Energy  - 40 % Greenhouse Gas Emissions 27 % Renewable Energy 20 % Energy Efficiency 10 % Interconnection  27%* Energy Efficiency * To be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30% New governance system + indicators 15 % Interconnection Emission reductions in ETS and non-ETS The European carbon market after 2020 Well-functioning reformed EU ETS as the main instrument Cap to decline with 2.2 % from 2021 onwards Free allocation to prevent carbon leakage continued Redistribution: 90 % among all 28 Member States / 10 % among lower income Member States Innovation fund created ("NER400") Modernisation fund set up INDCs and the Lima Call for Climate Action From nationally determined to collectively ambitious and individually fair – well in advance of Paris Clarity Fairness •INDC content is nationally determined •In a manner that facilitates the clarity, transparency and understanding •To be accompanied by upfront information: detailed and quantifiable •May also contain an adaptation component •No finance or support component (no constraint on conditionality) •The least developed countries and small island developing States may communicate strategies, plans and actions (rather than targets) •Upfront information to describe how Parties consider their contributions fair and ambitious •Support available for preparation of INDCs Ambition •INDCs to contribute towards achieving the objective of the Convention a "progression beyond current undertaking" •Parties invited again to communicate INDCs "well in advance of" Paris •Multiple discussions to be expected in different context thanks to transparency of INDCs •UNFCCC Sec to prepare synthesis report on the aggregate effect of INDCs by 1 November 2015 • Success of Paris will hinge on a critical mass of clear, ambitious, timely contributions • UNFCCC Sec Synthesis will help set the stage for Paris How to contact us The project team can be contacted at personal e-mail addresses (zsolt.lengyel [ at ] climaeast.eu, marzena.chodor [at] climaeast.eu vladyslav.zhezherin [ at ] climaeast.eu) and : [email protected] Clima East Office c/o Milieu Ltd Chaussée de Charleroi No. 112, First Floor 1060 Brussels (Belgium) Tel: +32 2506 1000 Website: English: www.climaeast.eu Russian: http://russian.climaeast.eu/