Oil market outlook Edward Bell Commodity Analyst +971 (0) 4 230 7701 [email protected] April 2015 1 Is the worst behind us? • • • • Brent futures prices are up 14% ytd and have been closing in on USD70/b. Remember: forecasts were for lows of USD20-30/b in end of Q1/Q2. 110.00 100.00 90.00 ENBD View: gradual climb up to USD70 by end of 2015 and into 2016 Brent 2015: USD 61/b. • Brent 2016: USD 70/b 130.00 120.00 Futures market has a gradual recovery in 2015-16 but current future curve may be getting ahead of itself • A recovery in sight? 80.00 70.00 60.00 2015 q1 q2 qq3 q4 2016q 1 q2 q3 q4 50.00 Brent: USD/b 55.16 58.00. 63.00 67.50 70.00 68.00 70.00 72.00 40.00 WTI: USD/b 48.63 48.50 54.50 59.00 61.20 58.50 60.00 60.00 30.00 WTI: USD/b Brent: USD/b WTI Futures: USD/b Brent Futures: USD/b Some headwinds in the way of sustained recovery • Market surplus to persist in 2015-16 but will tighten from 2014 oversupply • Demand growth limited: just 1-1.2m b/d in 2015-16 • Demand remains concentrated in nonOECD/emerging markets but some pockets of growth in US and Europe Global market balance 100.00 1.50 1.00 95.00 • • • Supply growth to slow sharply: from near 2m b/d in 2014 to average of 0.8m b/d if OPEC production in line with 2014 numbers US output to slow significantly; Canada now faces uncertain production outlook too But OPEC producing at average pace of 2015 ytd, then market surplus blows out again ▪ Saudi Arabia producing over 10m b/d in Mar-Apr ▪ OPEC total 1.3m b/d > 30m b/d target 0.50 - 90.00 (0.50) (1.00) 85.00 (1.50) (2.00) 80.00 (2.50) 75.00 (3.00) 2007 2010 2013 2016 Global demand: m b/d Global supply (OPEC at steady 2014 output): m b/d Market balance: m b/d Market balance (OPEC at current output levels): m b/d Source: IEA, Bloomberg OPEC slack means gradual—not sudden—price moves • OPEC currently producing around 83% of total capacity of around 37m b/d Share of capacity vs price move (yoy) 100.00 2008 price surge 80.00 • Normally correlates with small, bi-directional movements in prices 60.00 • • Tighter market/less spare capacity sees bigger gains But catalyst would be demand driven % change in price 40.00 20.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 (20.00) • US ‘claim’ on OPEC exports has slumped: from 2007 high to current imports fell +3m b/d (40.00) Where we are now (60.00) • China next great hope: OPEC imports in same time not quite +2.5m b/d (80.00) OPEC production/capacity (%, 2007-15 95.00 Where does that leave Gulf oil producers? Budget balance: % of GDP • Fiscal positions will tighten across the region 40.0 30.0 • All governments below breakeven oil prices 20.0 10.0 • Spending to slump across the region 0.0 • Local rates showing some tightening (but non-Cbank assets remain high so can access finance in crunch) (10.0) (20.0) 2010 • How do you make a decision when prices are volatile? 2012 2014f 2016f Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Breakeven oil prices: USD/b 150 Change in government spending (% yoy) 30.0 100 25.0 20.0 15.0 50 10.0 5.0 0.0 0 (5.0) 2013 Saudi Arabia Kuwait Bahrain 2014e 2015f 2016f UAE Oman Brent: average USD/b Source: Emirates NBD (10.0) (15.0) 2012 Saudi Arabia 2013e UAE Kuwait 2014e Qatar Oman 2015f Bahrain Where to look? • Focus for the downstream sector can be on local markets GCC fuel balances 1,400 • MENA oil demand to grow nearly 2x as fast as global demand: among the fastest in non-OECD 1,200 1,000 800 600 • Regional refining output doesn’t match regional fuel demands 400 200 • Refining/petrochemicals add value to petroleum value chain, bring employment opportunities 0 (200) (400) Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Source: JODI, Emirates NBD Fuel oil Jan2015 Oct2014 Jul2014 Apr2014 Jan2014 Oct2013 Jul2013 Apr2013 Jan2013 Oct2012 Jul2012 Feedstock costs remain competitive even with low US natgas Apr2012 • Jan2012 (600) Thank you www.emiratesnbdresearch.com April 2015 7
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