Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy Cost to produce and deliver cellulosic feedstock to a biorefinery: Switchgrass and forage sorghum Andrew P. Griffith a,1, Mohua Haque b,2, Francis M. Epplin c,⇑ a Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation, 2510 Sam Noble Parkway, Ardmore, OK 73401, USA c Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078-6026, USA b h i g h l i g h t s We model field-to-biorefinery dedicated energy crop production and delivery cost. We determine cost to produce and deliver switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass. Estimated costs of delivering a flow of switchgrass is less than for forage sorghum. The cost difference is primarily due to differences in harvest costs. Harvest cost are influenced by the length of the harvest window. a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 23 May 2012 Received in revised form 20 August 2013 Accepted 27 March 2014 Keywords: Costs Just-in-time Logistics Forage sorghum Integer programming Switchgrass a b s t r a c t Switchgrass and forage sorghum have both been proposed as potential candidates for high yielding, dedicated energy crops. This research was conducted to determine and compare the costs to produce and deliver switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass under the assumptions that the biomass would be baled and transported by truck and that the biorefinery would use either switchgrass or forage sorghum but not both. A multi-region, multi-period, monthly time-step, mixed integer mathematical programming model is used to determine the costs to deliver a flow of biomass to a biorefinery. The model is designed to determine the optimal location of a biorefinery that requires 3630 Mg of biomass per day, the area and quantity of feedstock harvested in each county by land category, the number of harvest machines required, and the costs to produce, harvest, store, and transport a flow of biomass to a biorefinery. The estimated costs of land rent, establishment, maintenance, fertilizer, harvest, storage, and transportation is $60 Mg1 for switchgrass and $74 Mg1 for forage sorghum. The cost difference between the two crops is primarily due to harvest costs, which are estimated to be $13 Mg1 greater for forage sorghum. Forage sorghum has a narrower harvest window, requires more time for field drying prior to safe baling and, as a consequence, requires significantly more harvest machines. Based on the assumptions used in this study for Oklahoma conditions, a switchgrass system with a nine-month harvest window can deliver baled biomass at a lower cost than a forage sorghum system with a five-month harvest window. However, the value of a Mg of switchgrass relative to a Mg of forage sorghum remains to be determined. Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates that U.S. retailers sell 136 billion L yr1 of biofuels by the year 2022 (if they are produced), with 79 billion L yr1 ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 405 744 6156; fax: +1 405 744 8210. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A.P. Griffith), [email protected] (M. Haque), [email protected] (F.M. Epplin). 1 Tel.: +1 865 974 7480. 2 Tel.: +1 580 223 5810. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.03.068 0306-2619/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. expected to be forthcoming from lignocellulosic feedstocks such as urban waste, forest biomass, and biomass from dedicated energy crops [1]. The U.S. Billion-Ton Update reported that 16–24 million ha of cropland and pasture could be converted to produce energy crops [2]. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) was evaluated as the model perennial grass energy crop species, and forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) was considered as the model annual energy crop. Evaluating the logistics required to provide a flow of biomass produced by the energy crops throughout the year to a biorefinery was beyond the scope of the model used for the Billion-Ton Update [2]. 45 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Switchgrass is considered a potential dedicated perennial energy crop in the U.S. Southern Great Plains because, in that region, it produces greater biomass yields than other warm season grasses such as Kleingrass (Panicum coloratum L.), Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense L. Pers), and Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers) [3]. Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganticus) has been found to produce greater biomass yields than upland varieties of switchgrass in Illinois [4]. However, Aravindhakshan et al. [5] found that lowland switchgrass varieties produced 28% more annual biomass than miscanthus in a study conducted in the Southern Plains. Forage sorghum has been proposed as an annual energy crop because it has broad genetic diversity that provides the opportunity to develop varieties adapted to diverse climates [6]. It has several desirable characteristics such as high yield potential, water-use efficiency, drought tolerance, established production systems, and the potential for genetic improvement using traditional and genomic approaches [7]. Hallam et al. [8] found that in Iowa, forage sorghum produced more biomass than alternatives that included reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.), switchgrass, big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), and corn (Zea mays L.). A number of studies have evaluated the farm gate costs of producing switchgrass [8–10] and forage sorghum [11–13]. For the most part, these studies have ignored the logistics of transporting a continuous flow of feedstock throughout the year from fields or storage to a biorefinery. The costs incurred to move biomass from the farm gate to provide a daily flow of feedstock to the biorefinery, may differ substantially across feedstocks. In Oklahoma, switchgrass harvest may begin in July and extend though March. During the nine-month harvest window, switchgrass biomass could be harvested and delivered ‘‘just-in-time’’ (JIT). Preliminary estimates are that the harvest window for forage sorghum in Oklahoma could only extend for five months, from October through February. More storage would be required for forage sorghum. A JIT system has several advantages in that it could substantially reduce the investment required in harvest machines and reduce the amount of space required for storage. However, a JIT system also has several potential disadvantages. Expected switchgrass and forage sorghum harvestable yields and expected fertilizer requirements differ depending on the month of harvest [14] (Table 1). Harvesting switchgrass prior to full maturity is expected to result in lower harvestable yields and greater fertilizer requirements. A comprehensive evaluation of a JIT system is needed to compare the tradeoffs among yield, fertilizer, harvest machinery, storage, and other factors. This research attempts to compare the economic competitiveness of the proposed annual energy crop, forage sorghum, relative to the proposed perennial crop, switchgrass. Separate models are built for switchgrass and forage sorghum. The most economical commercial scale system for converting lignocellulosic biomass to economically competitive biobased products has not been determined. Some studies model an enzymatic hydrolysis process. Others model thermochemical processes such as gasification or pyrolysis. It remains to be determined which of these several competing technologies will ultimately prevail, and if a biorefinery can use multiple feedstocks. Since the harvest windows for forage sorghum and switchgrass overlap, potential economies from using both feedstocks are not evident. Differences in the value of a delivered dry unit of switchgrass biomass relative to a dry unit of forage sorghum also remain to be determined. However, the profitability of a biorefinery will depend in part on the cost of delivered feedstock. The objective of this research is to determine and compare the costs to deliver a year round flow of baled biomass to a biorefinery for both a system that uses forage sorghum exclusively and a system that uses switchgrass exclusively. This type of information will be essential to determine the potential economic viability of biorefineries that plan to use either forage sorghum or switchgrass biomass feedstock. 2. Methods Since an infrastructure for producing and marketing biomass feedstock does not exist, and since biomass feedstock has few alternative uses, the risk would be very high for a biorefinery to rely on spot markets for feedstock. To overcome some of these risks, a biorefinery could develop a vertically integrated system similar to that used by several U.S. wood products companies that, through either ownership or leases, have rights to thousands of hectares of timber land [15]. These companies manage timber production, harvest, transportation, processing, and sales of produced products. A biorefinery that requires year round delivery of biomass could also be efficiently organized with a vertically integrated business plan [16,17]. Similar to integrated timber companies, production, harvest, storage, and delivery of feedstock could be centrally managed and coordinated. Land could be leased and seeded to energy crops in a manner similar to what occurred when millions of U.S. ha were enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and seeded to perennial grasses. The difference being that the biorefinery, rather than the government, would be the lessee and would be responsible for paying the leasing costs. This system has the potential to quickly identify and reduce bottlenecks and achieve cost efficiencies by managing quality throughout the field-to-products chain. The optimal size of a cellulosic biorefinery is not known, but economies of scale suggest the industry will ‘‘be characterized by regionally dominant, large capacity biorefineries’’ [18]. Kazi et al. [19] and Wright et al. [20] budgeted for 2000 dry Mg per day. Wright and Brown [21] find that for some conversion technologies optimally sized lignocellulosic biorefineries would require more than 12,000 Mg per day. Regardless of the average feedstock yield, a substantial quantity of land would be necessary to fulfill the Table 1 Switchgrass and forage sorghum yield proportion and fertilizer requirements by harvest month. January a July August September October November December Switchgrass Forage sorghum Proportion of potential yield by harvest montha 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.80 0.75 February March April May June 0.79 0.86 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.85 0.85 Switchgrass Forage sorghum Level of nitrogen (kg N ha1) by harvest month 71 71 71 101 101 90 83 77 71 101 71 101 71 101 Switchgrass Forage sorghum Level of phosphorus (kg P2O5 ha1) by harvest month 0 0 0 50 50 11 11 11 0 50 0 50 0 50 Switchgrass harvest is not permitted in April, May, and June. Forage sorghum harvest is not permitted from March through September. 46 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 needs of an efficiently sized biorefinery that requires feedstock from dedicated energy crops and operates year round. A vertically integrated system designed to maximize profit would include the most economically efficient plan for harvesting and delivering a flow of feedstock to an optimally located conversion facility year round. For a given annual biomass requirement, the number of harvest machines required would depend on the length of the harvest window, the weather, and the number of harvest days. Extending the harvest window could reduce the investment required in harvest machines necessary to supply the biorefinery and also reduce the amount of storage space needed. Extending the harvest window would require additional land for growing feedstock due to the lower average yield that is expected with an extended harvest window (Table 1). Harvesting switchgrass before dormancy could also require more nitrogen because studies have determined that if harvest is delayed until after senescence, some proportion of the nutrients translocate from the foliage to the crown and rhizomes [22,23]. However, annuals such as forage sorghum do not translocate nutrients to the root system to the same degree as switchgrass [24]. 3. Model A mixed integer mathematical programming model is constructed to determine the costs to lease land, plant, manage, harvest, and deliver a flow of biomass throughout the year. Land acquisition, length of harvest window, suitable harvest days, and the number of harvest machines required pose critical cost and data issues. 3.1. Land use The case study model includes all 77 Oklahoma counties as individual production regions plus 11 potential biorefinery locations. Cropland and improved pasture land area for each county are based on data from the Census of Agriculture [25]. The model is constructed so that switchgrass can be produced on both cropland and improved pasture land, whereas forage sorghum production is limited to cropland. Forage sorghum, which must be replanted each year, is restricted to cropland due to the increased risk of soil erosion when grown on marginal lands. There are also soil erosion concerns with switchgrass production in the establishment year if conventional tillage is used to prepare the seedbed [26]. Switchgrass is a bunch grass, and until it becomes well established, does not provide substantial ground cover between plants. However, in the Southern Plains as switchgrass matures and the root system develops, tillers develop and provide substantial ground cover. This reduces the risk of soil erosion relative to annual crops such as forage sorghum if switchgrass is harvested by mowing at a height of 15 cm or greater [24]. The model limits biomass production in a production region by restricting area usage to no more than 10% of a county’s cropland and no more than 10% of a county’s improved pasture land. The assumption is made that cropland could be acquired for a longterm lease rate above average CRP rental rates [27]. The lease rate for cropland for each county is calculated by adding a fixed amount of $49 ha1 to the average CRP rental rate for that county as determined by Fewell et al. [28]. Long term lease rates for improved pasture land are derived by adding $76 ha1 to the 2010 average county pasture rental rate [29]. The modeled rental rates are designed to cover the opportunity costs of alternative production options and to account for increased land-lease rates that may occur in response to an entrant in the market for 10% of the county’s land, and to compensate for the lost option value from engaging in long term leases [30]. Switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass yield estimates for each production region are obtained from estimates produced by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory [2,31]. Switchgrass harvested in July results in a lower expected yield and a greater expected nitrogen requirement than switchgrass harvested in October (Table 1). Switchgrass yield response to fertilizer for alternative harvest months is based on data from a multiyear field trial [32]. 3.2. Length of harvest window Switchgrass is modeled as having a harvest window starting in July and ending in March with no harvest expected in April, May, or June due to potential damage to future year’s plant growth. Forage sorghum is modeled with harvest to start in October and end in February. Forage sorghum harvest is delayed until October because it is a later maturing species. Both crops are assumed to be mowed, dried in the field to no more than 15–20% moisture, and baled into large rectangular solid bales. Forage sorghum harvest is modeled to end in February because it has a higher incidence of lodging which makes it more difficult to harvest [33]. 3.3. Suitable harvest days The moisture content of the biomass should be no more than 15–20% when baled because the higher the moisture content when baled, the higher the incidence of mold, premature fermentation, and potential spontaneous combustion. Time after mowing is required to enable the material to dry prior to baling. Drying is enhanced by the relatively low humidity of the Southern Plains. However, forage sorghum has a propensity to retain moisture and more dry down time is expected to be required for forage sorghum than for switchgrass [34,35]. Hwang et al. [36] uses historical weather data to model time required for switchgrass biomass to dry between mowing and baling and to determine distributions of suitable switchgrass harvest days by month for Oklahoma counties. In most months, the number of suitable mowing days exceeds the number of suitable switchgrass biomass baling days. Similar harvest day by month distributions are not available for forage sorghum for the region. Given the lack of more precise data, the forage sorghum model is solved under two different assumptions regarding dry down time between mowing and baling and harvest days per month. For the base model, forage sorghum is assumed to require twice as much dry down time as switchgrass. For the alternative, dry down time is assumed to be the same for forage sorghum as for switchgrass. Findings from these models can provide information regarding the relative cost of providing biomass from the two species in a baled form. 3.4. Harvest machines Biomass harvest costs are based on the integrated harvest unit concept originally developed by Thorsell et al. [37]. Machinery requirements for harvest include machines for mowing, raking, baling, and stacking. A self-propelled windrower (140 kW) with a 4.9 m rotary header and a driver is modeled as the mowing unit. The harvest unit modeled for raking, baling, field transport, and stacking consists of three wheel rakes, three 40 kW tractors, three balers, three 147 kW tractors, a field transporter, and seven workers. The modeled wheel rake consists of two 3 m rakes pulled in tandem. The modeled baler constructs 1.2 m 1.2 m 2.4 m solid rectangular bales. The self-propelled field transporter collects as many as eight bales, transports them, and stacks them at a location 47 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 near an all-weather road. The mowing unit and harvest unit are included in the model as integer variables. 3.5. Transportation The most efficient and cost-effective method to harvest, store, and transport massive quantities of biomass feedstock to a central location, has been the subject of research studies for a number of years [38]. In general the studies have found that the most economically efficient harvest, storage, and transportation system depends on assumptions regarding field size, climate, length of harvest window, transportation distance, and form of the delivered material [39–43]. For example, Worley and Cundiff [44] report that field chopping is not cost competitive with baling, even in the very humid climate of central Florida. Sultana and Kumar [45] model transportation cost for delivering material to a pelleting facility. Judd et al. [46] found that large cylindrical bales would be a more economical form than rectangular solid bales given the relatively small fields and more humid Southeast region of the USA. Kumar and Sokhansanj [47] compared several potential harvest and transport systems. However, they assume only a four month harvest window and that the cost of the delivered material include a cost for grinding. They find that an experimental loafing system would be more economical than baling but caution that unlike baling, their loafing system has not been validated at a commercial scale. For climate and field conditions of the Southern Plains, Thorsell et al. [37] concluded that if the search for system type was limited to existing forage harvest system technologies, the rectangular solid bale system would be most economical. Bales could be harvested and stored in or close to the harvest field near an allweather road. Bales could then be trucked as necessary to the biorefinery. Wang [48] estimated the cost of transporting baled biomass by truck from fields where produced to a biorefinery. The model assumes a semi-tractor trailer is used to transport biomass in the form of solid rectangular bales (1.2 m 1.2 m 2.4 m) from the field’s edge to the processing facility. The trailer is designed to carry 24 bales weighing approximately 0.9 Mg each. At 15–20% moisture a load would contain approximately 18 Mg dry biomass. Wang’s [48] transportation cost estimate can be described as a function of the price of diesel fuel and the travel distance between the field of production and the biorefinery. The equation is: TC = 0.8799 + [0.1648Pd + 0.0677]km, where TC is the round trip cost ($ Mg1) to transport one dry Mg of baled biomass from a distance of km kilometers; Pd is the price ($ L1) of diesel fuel and km is the transportation distance from the field to the biorefinery. The equation accounts for the total round trip cost. machines, and the costs to produce, harvest, store, and transport a continuous flow of biomass to a biorefinery. The objective function is constructed to maximize the net present value (NPV) of the system: maxNPV Q jm ;Ailm ;XT ijkm ;XSIPikm ;X ilm ;XPjkm ;XSIikm ;XSNikm ;XSJjkm ;HUM;HUB ( J M X X ¼ m¼1 I X K L I X K L X X X X dk Ailm gik Ailm i j¼1 k i l¼1 k l¼1 I X K X L I X L I X L X X X mik Alim alm Ailm clm Ailm i qQ jm k l¼1 J X I X K X i¼1 l¼1 sij XT ijkm i j k i¼1 l¼1 ! I X K X Ck XSIP ikm i¼1 k¼1 xHUM -HUBg PVAF J X F X OMC f bj j¼1 f ¼1 J X F X AFC f bj ð1Þ j¼1 f ¼1 PJ where qQ jm is the return from biobased products, PI PK PLj¼1 d A i k k l¼1 ilm is the cost of producing bioenergy crops excluding PI PK PL fertilizer and harvest, i k gik l¼1 Ailm is establishment cost, PI PK PL PI PL m A is land rent, i k ik l¼1 ilm i¼1 l¼1 alm Ailm is nitrogen cost, PI PJ PK PI PL i¼1 l¼1 clm Ailm is phosphorus cost, i k sij XT ijkm is transportaj tion cost. sij = 0.8799 + [0.1648Pd + 0.0677]kmij, where Pd is the price ($ L1) of diesel fuel and kmij is the distance from county i PI PK to biorefinery location j. i¼1 k¼1 Ck XSIP ikm is storage cost, PJ PF OMC b is operating and maintenance cost, xHUM is harf j f ¼1 j¼1 vest cost for mowing, -HUB is harvest cost for raking–baling–stacking operations, PVAF is the present value of annuity factor, PJ PF f ¼1 AFC f bj is biorefinery investment cost, and Tables 2 and 3 j¼1 include descriptions of set member elements, parameters, and variables. PVAF ¼ ð1 þ rÞT 1 ð2Þ rð1 þ rÞT alm ¼ Pn NIT lm ð3Þ clm ¼ PP PIT lm ð4Þ Eq. (1) is maximized subject to a set of constraints. Eq. (5) restricts total planted switchgrass or forage sorghum in each county on cropland to not exceed a set proportion of the quantity of available cropland. In this study, BIPROP was set to 10% therefore limiting the quantity of cropland bid from traditional crops to produce dedicated energy crops to 10% of total cropland in the county. 3.6. The model M X Building on and extending the work of Tembo et al. [49] and Mapemba et al. [50], multi-region, multi-period, monthly timestep, mixed integer mathematical programming models are formulated and used to determine the cost to deliver a steady flow of biomass to a biorefinery [51,52]. This research was conducted to determine and compare the costs to produce and deliver switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass under the assumptions that the biomass would be baled and transported by truck and that the biorefinery would use either switchgrass or forage sorghum but not both. The models are designed to determine the optimal location of a biorefinery that requires a flow of 3630 Mg of biomass per day from among 11 locations, Blaine, Canadian, Carter, Garfield, Grady, Kay, Okmulgee, Payne, Pontotoc, Washington, and Woods counties. The models also determine the area and quantity of feedstock harvested in each county by land category, the number of harvest m¼1 Ailm BIPROP POTACREil 6 0; 8i ; l ¼ cropland ð5Þ Similar to cropland, Eq. (6) restricts total planted switchgrass on improved pasture land in each county by setting BIPROP1 to 10%. M X Ailm BIPROP1 POTACREil 6 0; 8i ; l ¼ improved pasture land m¼1 ð6Þ Eq. (7) is a yield balance equation used to calculate the amount of biomass produced on harvested lands. L L X X X ilm Ailm BYLDil YADkm ¼ 0; l¼1 8i;k;m ð7Þ l¼1 Eq. (8) limits harvest months. The model sets YADkm equal to zero in the months of April, May, and June for switchgrass and the months 48 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Table 2 Description of sets and variables used in the models. Symbol Description Sets M J I F K Months: m = {January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December} Prospective biorefinery locations: j = {Blaine, Canadian, Carter, Garfield, Grady, Kay, Okmulgee, Payne, Pontotoc, Washington, Woods} Biomass source counties: i = {77 Oklahoma counties} Facilities: f = {processing, storage} Switchgrass or forage sorghum production system: k = {established on cropland, established on improved pasture land} Land class: l = {cropland, improved pasture land} Variables NPV Qjm Ailm XSIikm XSIPikm XTijkm HUM HUB Xilm XPjkm XSIikm XSJjkm XSINim XHUMim XHUBim bj Net present value of the system ($) Quantity of ethanol produced in month m by a biorefinery at location j (L) Land harvested in month m from land class l in county i (hectares) Biomass stored in field in month m from system k in county i (Mg) Biomass placed into storage in month m from system k in county i (Mg) Biomass transported from county i in month m from system k to a biorefinery at location j (Mg) Integer variable representing the total number of mowing harvest units Integer variable representing the total number of raking-baling-stacking harvest units Biomass harvested in month m from land class l in county i (Mg) Biomass processed in month m from system k at location j (Mg) Biomass stored as source i from system k in month m (Mg) Biomass stored in month m from system k at location j (Mg) Biomass removed from field storage in month m and county i (Mg) Proportion of a harvest unit for mowing used in month m in county i Proportion of a harvest unit for raking-baling-stacking used in month m in county i Binary variable for biorefinery location j (1 if built, 0 otherwise) of March through September for forage sorghum, resulting in no harvest during the respective months. I X XT ijkm þ hJ k XSJ jkm1 XSJ jkm XP jkm ¼ 0; 8j;k;m ð14Þ i¼1 L X Ailm ¼ 0 if YADkm ¼ 0; 8i;k;m ð8Þ l¼1 The sum of biomass transported to the plant location from each county, in addition to stored biomass, is set to be equivalent to the sum of current production and the usable portion of stored biomass at the source county for each month by Eq. (9). J L X X X ilm þ hIk XSIikm1 XT ijkm XSIikm ¼ 0; 8i;k;m ð9Þ j¼1 l¼1 Eq. (10) equates total biomass quantity transported to the biorefinery plus the storage loss to quantity harvested. L X M X J X M M X X X ilm XT ijkm ð1 hIk Þ XSIikm ¼ 0; l¼1 m¼1 j¼1 m¼1 8i;k ð10Þ The total quantity of biomass delivered from each production region to the biorefinery is equated to the total quantity of processed biomass plus storage losses as shown in Eq. (15). I X M X i¼1 m¼1 M X m¼1 K X XSJjkm BINVbj P 0; Q jm K X kk XP jkm 6 0; 8m ð11Þ Eq. (12) limits monthly biorefinery processing capacity for each location. Q jm CAPPbj 6 0; 8j;m ð12Þ 8j;m X XSJ jkm CAPbj 6 0; 8j;m ð13Þ k¼1 Eq. (14) restricts the quantity of biomass transported to the biorefinery in a specific month minus the quantity processed at the biorefinery during that month to be equal to the change in biomass storage inventory during the month at the biorefinery. ð17Þ The number of endogenously determined mowing units used in any month is restricted to not exceed the available number of mowing units (Eq. (18)). 8m ð18Þ The number of raking–baling–stacking harvest units used in any month is restricted by Eq. (19) to not exceed the total number of raking–baling–stacking harvest units endogenously determined by the model. I X XHUBim HUB 6 0; Eq. (13) limits monthly storage capacity at the biorefinery. ð16Þ k¼1 i¼1 ¼ 0; ð15Þ Eq. (17) restricts ethanol production in each month to not exceed the capacity of the biorefinery. i¼1 l¼1 i¼1 k¼1 8j;k m¼1 8j;m I X XHUMim HUM 6 0; i¼1 k¼1 M X XP jkm ¼ 0; k¼1 J X I X L I X K I X K I X K X X X X X ilm XT ijkm þ XSINikm XSIPikm i¼1 j¼1 k¼1 XSJ jkm A minimum biomass inventory at the biorefinery is imposed by Eq. (16). m¼1 The total quantity of harvested biomass plus the quantity of biomass removed from field storage each month is set equal to the amount of biomass transported from each county to the biorefinery plus the amount of biomass placed in storage at the biorefinery (Eq. (11)) XT ijkm ð1 hJ k Þ 8m ð19Þ i¼1 Eqs. (20)–(23) ensure that each month’s harvested biomass is less than the harvesting capacity of the total number of mowing harvest units and raking–baling–stacking harvest units. CAPHUMim ¼ FWDim DCAMHU m 8i;m ð20Þ A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 49 Table 3 Descriptions of parameters used in the models. Parameter Description q Price of ethanol ($ L1) Price of nitrogen ($ kg1) Price of P2O5 ($ kg1) Cost of producing switchgrass or forage sorghum with system k excluding cost of fertilizer and harvest ($ ha1) Establishment cost for county i by production system k ($ ha1) Land rent for county i by production system k ($ ha1) Cost of applied nitrogen to land class l harvested in month m ($ ha1) Cost of applied P2O5 to land class l harvested in month m ($ ha1) Round-trip cost of transporting biomass from county i to biorefinery located j ($ Mg1) Cost of storing biomass in the field with production system k ($ Mg1) Annual cost of a mowing unit ($ per unit) Annual cost of a raking-baling-stacking unit ($ per unit) Usable proportion of biomass from production system k stored in field (1 – storage loss %) Usable proportion of biomass from production system k stored at biorefinery (1 – storage loss %) Quantity of ethanol produced from a ton of biomass from production system k (L Mg1) Proportion of cropland in each county available for producing biomass Proportion of improve pasture land in each county available for producing biomass Nitrogen applied to land class l when harvested in month m (kg ha1) P2O5 applied to land class l when harvested in month m (kg ha1) Hectares of land class l in county i Biomass yield adjustment factor for production system k harvested in month m Biomass yield from production in county i on land class l (Mg ha1 yr1) Biorefinery operating and maintenance cost for facility of size s type f ($ yr1) Biorefinery investment cost for facility of size s type f made once in year 0 ($) Present value of annuity factor Plant life (years) Discount rate (%) Minimum biomass inventory for plant size s (Mg per month) Processing capacity of biorefinery size s (L of ethanol per month) Storage capacity of biorefinery size s (Mg of biomass) Field work days suitable for mowing in county i in month m Daily capacity of a mowing harvest unit in month m Capacity of mowing harvest unit in month m Field work days suitable for raking-baling-stacking in county i in month m Daily capacity of a raking-baling-stacking harvest unit in month m Capacity of raking-baling-stacking harvest unit in month m Pn PP dk gik mik alm clm sij Ck x hIk hJk kk BIPROP BIPROP1 NITlm PITlm POTACREil YADkm BYLDil OMCf AFCf PVAF T r BINV CAPP CAP FWDim DCAMHUm CAPHUMm BWDim DCABHUm CAPHUBm The monthly capacity of a mowing harvest unit is calculated by multiplying the capacity of a mowing unit in month m by the number of mowing days available in month m. 4. Results L X X ilm XHUMim CAPHUMim 6 0; The models determine that the biorefinery would be optimally located in Blaine County for both the switchgrass and forage sorghum production systems. A summary of estimated costs, optimal number of windrowers and balers, quantity of land used, and feedstock harvested for supplying the biorefinery with 3630 Mg of feedstock per day is provided in Table 4. The estimated costs of land rent, establishment, maintenance, fertilizer, harvest, storage, and transportation is $60 and $74 Mg1 for switchgrass and forage sorghum respectively (Table 4; and Fig. 1). The cost difference between switchgrass and forage sorghum is primarily a result of differences in harvest costs, which are estimated to be $13 Mg1 greater for forage sorghum than for switchgrass. The forage sorghum system requires 37 more windrowers for mowing and 249 more balers, which increases machinery ownership costs. The optimal number of windrowers for mowing switchgrass is 34, while 71 are estimated to be needed for forage sorghum. The optimal set of raking, baling, and stacking machines for switchgrass includes 81 rakes, 81 balers, 162 tractors, and 27 field stackers. For forage sorghum, the optimal set includes 330 rakes, 330 balers, 660 tractors, and 110 field stackers. The requirement of additional harvest machines for forage sorghum follows from the assumption of a narrower harvest window (five months versus nine months for switchgrass) and the assumption that forage sorghum requires more dry down time resulting in only half as many baling days per month. For four of the five forage sorghum harvest months, at least twice as much forage sorghum is scheduled to be harvested as compared to switchgrass (Fig. 2). 8i;m ð21Þ l¼1 CAPHUBim ¼ BWDim DCABHU m L X X ilm XHUBim CAPHUBim 6 0; 8i;m ð22Þ 8i;m ð23Þ l¼1 Eq. (24) equates the raking–baling–stacking capacity in each production region and each month with the mowing capacity. XHUMim CAPHUMim XHUBim CAPHUBim ¼ 0; 8i;m ð24Þ Eq. (25) lists non-negative decision variables. The number of mowing harvest units (HUM) and the number of raking–baling–stacking harvest units (HUB) are set to be non-negative integer values. Q jm ; Ailm ; XT ijkm ; X lim ; XP jkm ; XSIikm ; XSIP ikm ; X ilm ; XSINikm ; XSJ jkm ; XHUM; and XHUB P 0 ð25Þ Eq. (26) restricts the biorefinery location variable to be binary. bj 2 f0; 1g ð26Þ The switchgrass model includes 10,900 equations and 75,000 activities. 4.1. Base scenario 50 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Table 4 Estimated cost, number of windrowers and balers, area and quantity of biomass harvested for both switchgrass and forage sorghum for each scenario. Category Base scenario Units a b Mg1 Mg1 Mg1 Mg1 Mg1 Mg1 Mg1 Same dry-down timea,b Forage sorghum Fuel price doubled Land rent doubled Switchgrass Forage sorghum Switchgrass Forage sorghum Yield doubleda,b Forage sorghum Switchgrass Forage sorghum 12.22 7.61 7.64 0.46 15.73 0.48 16.06 9.52 6.26 7.20 4.15 28.85 1.22 16.57 9.55 6.27 7.21 4.16 20.16 1.22 16.10 12.47 7.69 7.70 0.46 18.92 0.48 25.39 9.72 6.36 7.31 4.21 33.21 1.22 25.35 24.08 7.54 7.57 0.45 15.34 0.48 16.86 18.67 6.20 7.13 4.11 28.90 1.22 17.07 4.79 3.19 7.34 4.23 29.66 1.22 11.61 Land rent Establishment and maintenance cost Cost of nitrogen Cost of phosphorus Harvest cost Field storage cost Transportation cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Total cost of delivered feedstock Windrowers Balers Biomass harvested from cropland Biomass harvested from improved pasture land Total biomass harvested Cropland harvested Improved pasture land harvested $ Mg1 No. No. Mg Mg 60.20 34 81 795,997 493,262 73.77 71 330 1,312,184 64.67 72 168 1,311,640 73.11 35 81 820,642 468,144 87.38 73 339 1,311,402 72.32 35 78 760,958 528,216 83.30 72 330 1,312,160 62.04 73 339 1,311,490 Mg ha ha 1,289,259 78,636 49,944 1,312,184 92,387 1,311,640 92,508 1,288,787 81,366 48,261 1,311,402 93,737 1,289,173 74,938 52,673 1,312,160 91,414 1,311,490 47,063 Total land harvested ha 128,581 92,387 92,508 129,627 93,737 127,611 91,414 47,063 The number of suitable baling days per month for forage sorghum were set equal to the number of switchgrass baling days. Yields in each county doubled for forage sorghum. Forage sorghum requires fewer ha of land because the average forage sorghum harvested yield is 14.2 Mg ha1 while switchgrass averages about 10 Mg ha1 for the production regions selected by the model. The forage sorghum system requires 92,387 ha of cropland whereas the switchgrass system requires 128,581 ha (78,636 ha of cropland and 49,944 ha of improved pasture land). Forage sorghum also requires less land because the narrower harvest window results in less yield loss from leaving biomass standing in the field (Table 1). 4.2. Sensitivity to number of baling days for forage sorghum Safe baling requires that the mowed biomass contain no more than 15–20% moisture. Hwang et al. [36] used historical weather data and forage dry-down models to determine probability distributions of the number of days per month that switchgrass could be safely baled in Oklahoma. Similar information is not available for forage sorghum. For the base model, forage sorghum is assumed to require twice as long to dry to safe baling moisture levels, and thus baling days for forage sorghum are set at half the level as for switchgrass. The number of harvest machines required and the estimate of harvest costs depend critically on this constraint on the number of forage sorghum harvest days per month. To test the sensitivity of the findings, the number of harvest days for forage sorghum for each of the five harvest months is set equal to the number of days modeled for switchgrass. The cost to deliver forage sorghum decreases from $74 Mg1 to $65 Mg1 when the constraint for the available number of baling days during the October through February harvest window for forage sorghum is relaxed to be the same as that used for switchgrass during these months. Under the base scenario, delivering forage sorghum rather than switchgrass costs $14 Mg1 more. However, when the number of available baling days constraint is relaxed for forage sorghum, delivering forage sorghum costs $5 Mg1 more. Relaxing the constraint on the number of baling days for forage sorghum reduces harvest costs from $29 Mg1 (base scenario) to $20 Mg1. Harvest costs are reduced by $9 Mg1 because 162 fewer balers, 162 fewer mowers, 324 fewer tractors, and 54 fewer field stackers are estimated to be required to harvest the crop during the five month window. 4.3. Sensitivity to changes in fuel price Table 4 also includes findings from doubling the price of diesel fuel used to harvest and transport feedstock. The total cost to deliver switchgrass increases to $73 Mg1 while the total cost to deliver forage sorghum increases to $87 Mg1. An increase in fuel price increases transportation costs, and the model optimally shifts switchgrass production from improved pasture land that is further from the biorefinery to cropland that is nearer the biorefinery (Fig. 3). The optimal quantity of improved pasture land decreases from 49,944 ha to 48,261 ha while cropland in biomass production increases from 78,636 ha to 81,366 ha (Table 4). An increase in fuel price would have relatively less effect on the optimal location of forage sorghum production. Some shifts do occur since cropland rental rates and expected yields vary across counties. Feedstock production would optimally shift to counties that are closer to the biorefinery with higher rental rates because the greater transportation costs from shipping from more distant county exceeds the added land costs from leasing land closer to the biorefinery. An increase in the gap between delivered cost of forage sorghum and switchgrass when the price of diesel fuel is doubled, follows from the assumption that switchgrass can be grown on both improved pasture land and cropland whereas forage sorghum is limited to cropland. 4.4. Sensitivity to changes in land rent The optimal biorefinery location remains in Blaine County when land rental rates are doubled. The estimated cost to deliver switchgrass increases by $12 Mg1 from $60 Mg1 (base scenario) to $72 Mg1 while the cost to deliver forage sorghum increases by $9 Mg1 from $74 Mg1 to $83 Mg1 (Table 4, and Fig. 1). Doubling the land rental rate increases the estimated transportation costs of switchgrass due to a shift in the type and location of land under production. Since switchgrass can be produced on both cropland and improved pasture land, an increase in the land rental rate decreases the amount of cropland and increases the amount of improved pasture land (Fig. 3). Fig. 3 illustrates that when the land rental rates double, the production region extends, and fewer ha of cropland and more ha of improved pasture land are optimally leased. 51 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Fuel Price Doubled Base Scenario 100 Transportation Cost 74 Field Storage Cost 60 Cost ($/Mg) Cost ($/Mg) 80 60 Harvest Cost 40 Cost of Fertilizer 20 Establishment and Maintenance Cost 0 Switchgrass Forage Sorghum 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Land Rent Transportation Cost 80 Field Storage Cost Cost ($/Mg) Cost ($/Mg) Establishment and Maintenance Cost Forage Sorghum Forage Sorghum Yield Doubled 72 80 Cost of Fertilizer 100 Transportation Cost 83 Harvest Cost Feedstock Source Land Rent Doubled 100 Transportation Cost Field Storage Cost Switchgrass Land Rent Feedstock Source 87 73 60 Harvest Cost 40 Cost of Fertilizer 20 62 60 Field Storage Cost 60 Harvest Cost 40 Cost of Fertilizer 20 Establishment and Maintenance Cost 0 Switchgrass Forage Sorghum Switchgrass Land Rent Feedstock Source Establishment and Maintenance Cost 0 Forage Sorghum Feedstock Source Land Rent Same Number of Baling Days 100 Transportation Cost Cost ($/Mg) 80 65 Field Storage Cost 60 60 Harvest Cost 40 Cost of Fertilizer 20 Establishment and Maintenance Cost 0 Switchgrass Forage Sorghum Feedstock Source Land Rent Fig. 1. Estimated costs ($ Mg1) to provide a flow of feedstock throughout the year to a biorefinery for both switchgrass and forage sorghum. $62 Mg1 (Table 4). The cost difference between forage sorghum and switchgrass decreases from $14 Mg1 (base scenario) to $2 Mg1 (Table 4). Harvest costs for forage sorghum are $14 Mg1 greater than for switchgrass. However, when forage sorghum yields are doubled with switchgrass yields held constant, forage sorghum has cost advantages because only 47,063 ha of land are required. Land leasing and farming costs are decreased accordingly. Transportation costs decline because average transportation distance declines with greater average yields. Forage Sorghum Switchgrass Harvested Biomass (Mg) 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 5. Discussion 100000 50000 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Jan Feb 0 Month of Harvest Fig. 2. Biomass harversted by month for switchgrass and forage sorghum for the base scenarios. 4.5. Sensitivity to changes in forage sorghum yield When forage sorghum yields are doubled, the estimated cost to deliver a flow of feedstock decreases from $74 (base scenario) to Prior to investing hundreds of millions of dollars in a lignocellulosic biorefinery, due diligence would require a business plan that encompasses the complete chain from feedstock acquisition to sales of products produced. Spot markets for switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass do not currently exist. Rational land owners would not enter into biomass feedstock production until a market is available. A rational investor would not invest in a biorefinery that did not have a reasonable plan for obtaining a flow of feedstock. One alternative would be for the biorefinery to engage in long-term leases with land owners to acquire the rights to a sufficient quantity of land to produce feedstock. The models presented in this paper follow from the assumption that feedstock production, harvest, and delivery is managed by the biorefinery to provide a flow of biomass throughout the year. 52 A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 Blaine County Blaine County Blaine County Fig. 3. Cropland and improved pasture land usage for switchgrass under the base scenario, when fuel prices are doubled, and when land prices are doubled. One dot represents 500 ha. Dots are randomly assigned within a county. Based on the assumptions included in the model for the region under study, the switchgrass system can deliver a year round flow of biomass to a biorefinery at a lower cost than the forage sorghum system. Differences in the value of a unit of biomass between the species are not considered. Thus, these findings should not be interpreted as a blanket endorsement of switchgrass over forage sorghum. Differences exist in the components of switchgrass and forage sorghum biomass, and thus the two feedstocks may not be of equal value to the biorefinery. Research to determine the optimal conversion system and optimal products will be required to determine the most economically efficient field-to-biobased products system. Though forage sorghum has a yield advantage over switchgrass and the forage sorghum system requires less nitrogen fertilizer per Mg, switchgrass has the advantage of a longer harvest window, more harvest days in a harvest month, and the ability to be produced on marginal land currently used for improved pastures. Results confirm land and fertilizer requirements are greater for switchgrass than for forage sorghum, but following from the assumption that the biomass be dried to safe baling moisture in the field; the investment required for harvest machines is greater for forage sorghum than for switchgrass. Harvest machinery investment for forage sorghum is estimated to be more than three times greater than the harvest machinery investment required for switchgrass (base scenario). The difference in harvest machinery investment accounts for much of the additional cost for delivering A.P. Griffith et al. / Applied Energy 127 (2014) 44–54 a flow of forage sorghum biomass relative to switchgrass. This finding demonstrates the importance of the length of the harvest window, and the importance of the time required for mowed material to dry to moisture levels required for safe baling. Harvest costs for feedstocks produced in regions that enable longer harvest windows and an extended JIT system can be expected to be lower than harvest costs of feedstocks produced in regions with relatively short harvest windows. This finding follows from the assumption that forage sorghum would be harvested in a similar manner as switchgrass and with the same type of equipment. Only baling was considered. Additional research would be required to determine if alternative harvest systems such as loafing or field chopping and ensiling would be more economical than baling [44,47]. Optimal particle size may differ across conversion system. Additional research would be required to determine if baling, along with transportation and storage of bales, and particle size reduction at the biorefinery, as modeled here, is more economically efficient than field chopping and transportation, storage, and processing of chopped material. The optimal harvest system and the optimal field-to-biobased products system may differ across species and climate. The assumption that switchgrass could be produced on both cropland and improved pasture land whereas forage sorghum was restricted to cropland also benefits switchgrass. When rental rates for cropland increase relative to those for improved pasture land, production optimally shifts to more distant improved pasture land. Likewise, if transportation costs increase, then production on more distant improved pasture land will decrease, and production on cropland closer to the biorefinery will increase. These shifts follow from relative changes in rental rates and transportation costs. In the model, transportation costs are a function of biomass transportation distance. These estimated travel distances are influenced by the assumption regarding biorefinery daily feedstock requirements and the assumption that no more than 10% of a county’s cropland and no more than 10% of a county’s improved pasture land can be used. Average estimates of transportation costs would be lower for a smaller biorefinery and they would be lower if the 10% constraints were relaxed. As shown in Table 4, both harvest and transportation costs are sensitive to the price of diesel fuel. A diesel fuel price of $0.483 L1 was used for the base model and of $0.966 L1 for the fuel price doubled model. In the U.S., excise taxes are charged on fuel purchases. These taxes are used to fund road and bridge maintenance and construction. Fuel used for off road purposes (e.g. farming, logging, generating electricity) is exempt from these taxes. In some states the off road excise tax exempt diesel fuel is dyed enabling authorities to determine if a vehicle being used on the highway has paid the tax. These excise taxes vary across state but average about $0.15 L1 [53]. This is more than 30% of the budgeted base fuel price. It remains to be determined if fuel used in biomass production system would be exempted from these taxes. To be consistent, in most states fuel used to produce and harvest would be exempt. However, fuel used to transport biomass over the existing road system could be expected to be taxed. One limitation of our model is that we assume the same price for fuel used for production and harvesting as for the transportation fuel. In any case, a change in the net price of fuel used to power the machines used to produce, harvest, and transport the biomass will change the cost to deliver feedstock. But, based on the modeling assumptions, a change in fuel price is not likely to change the cost advantage for switchgrass relative to forage sorghum. A facility capable of processing feedstocks with different physical, agronomic, and chemical characteristics could mitigate some of the economic advantages that one species has over another. Additional research will be required to determine if a field-tobiobased products system that uses a combination of feedstocks 53 would be more economical than a system that uses a single feedstock. Since the harvest windows for forage sorghum and switchgrass overlap, benefits from using a combination of the two are not evident if both are required to be baled. 6. Conclusions Switchgrass and forage sorghum have been identified as potential dedicated energy crops for cellulosic ethanol production. To determine and compare the costs to deliver a year round flow of biomass to a biorefinery, a multi-region, multi-period, monthly time-step, mixed integer mathematical programming model is developed for both switchgrass and forage sorghum. The model determines the optimal biorefinery location, the area and quantity of feedstock harvested in each county by land category, and the number of mowing units and baling units necessary for harvest. The model also provides an estimate of the costs to produce, harvest, store, and transport a continuous flow of biomass to a biorefinery. Based on the programming model, the estimated cost to deliver a year round flow of switchgrass to a biorefinery is $60 Mg1 while the estimated cost for forage sorghum is $74 Mg1. The advantage switchgrass has over forage sorghum follows from the assumptions that (a) the biomass would be baled and delivered as bales; (b) switchgrass has a nine month harvest window and forage sorghum a five month harvest window; and (c) forage sorghum requires twice as much time between mowing and baling. For the region a harvest system other than baling may be required for forage sorghum to be economically competitive with switchgrass. Acknowledgements Support for this student training project was provided by USDA National Needs Graduate Fellowship Competitive Grant No. 200838420-04777 from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture. This project is also supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch Grant Number H-2824, and the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station. Support does not constitute an endorsement of the views expressed in this paper by the USDA. 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