ECO 2901 EMPIRICAL INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION Lecture 1: Introduction to the Course Victor Aguirregabiria (University of Toronto) Toronto. Winter 2015 Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 1 / 44 Organization of the Course Class Meetings: Fridays, 9:00-11:00am; room GE 100 O¢ ce hours: Tuesdays and Thursdays 3:00-4:00pm Evaluation: Problem Sets (25%); Referee & Presentation (25%); Final Exam (50%) I expect that you: (1) attend every class meeting; (2) read the papers/material before each lecture; (3) participate in class; (4) go through class notes and understand them; (5) do the problem set on time; (6) referee & presentation; (7) prepare for the …nal exam. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 2 / 44 Some General Features of this Course This courses deals with models, methods, and applications in Empirical Industrial Organization (EIO). This course emphasizes with the same intensity modelling, econometric techniques, and empirical applications. This year, the course concentrates in dynamic models of competition in IO. We will study empirical models of market competition that involve dynamic considerations: market entry/exit; capacity choice; advertising; inventories; storable and durable products; adoption of new technologies; geographic location; network competition; etc. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 3 / 44 Topics 1. Some General Ideas on Empirical IO 2. Dynamic Structural Models of Industrial Organization 3. Single-Agent Models of Firm Investment and Supply 4. Structural Models of Dynamic Demand 5. Empirical Dynamic Games of Oligopoly Competition Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 4 / 44 Lecture 1: Outline 1. Some Basic Ideas in IO 2. Data in Empirical IO 3. Speci…cation of a Structural Model in EIO 4. Equilibrium and Comparative Statics 5. Identi…cation and Estimation 6. Extension and the Rest of the Course Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 5 / 44 Some Basic Ideas in IO (1) IO studies the behavior of …rms in markets, their strategic interactions, and the implications on pro…ts and consumer welfare. Some examples of type of …rm decisions that we study in IO are: - Price and Quantity choice; Investment in capacity, inventories, physical capital, ...; R&D, patents; Advertising; Geographic location of plants and stores; Product characteristics; Entry in new markets; Adoption of new technologies; Contracts with suppliers, and customers; Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 6 / 44 Data in EIO: The "old days" Aggregate industry level data The typical study estimated a linear regression model where each observation n in the sample represents an industry: Pn MCn = β0 + β1 HHIn + εn Pn P n MC n Pn is the Lerner Index that measures of market power, and HHI is the Her…ndahl-Hirschman index that measures of market 2 n concentration, i.e., HHIn = ∑N i =1 sni , where sni is the share of …rm i’s output in total industry n output. Estimations using industry-level cross-sectional data from very diverse industries typically found a positive and statistically signi…cant β1 . The interpretation of the estimated regression functions was causal and not just as an equilibrium relationship. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 7 / 44 Data in EIO: New Empirical IO Motivated by the limitations in the previous empirical literature based on aggregate industry-level data. [1] Market power and concentration are endogenous variables that are jointly determined by exogenous factors in demand, technology, and regulation. [2] Industries are very heterogeneous in their exogenous characteristics. There is not a common relationship between market power and concentration across industries. [3] Both endogeneity [1] and unobserved industry heterogeneity [2] imply a biased in the estimation of the "average elasticity" β1 . Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 8 / 44 Data in EIO: New EIO Emphasizes the need to: [1] Study competition separately for each industry. [2] Use richer data at a more disaggregate level. Data at the level of individual …rms, products, and markets, on prices, quantities, number of …rms, and exogenous characteristics a¤ecting demand or costs. [3] Estimate game theoretical models of oligopoly competition. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 9 / 44 Data in EIO: Sources of Sample variation No sample variation from multiple industries, from many …rms (oligopoly markets), or from many periods (short panels). Main sources of sample variability in empirical studies in IO Most of the sample variation in these studies come from observing multiple products and multiple local markets within the same industry. Typical dataset in EIO: cross-section or panel data of many products and/or local markets from the same industry, with information on selling prices, produced quantities, product attributes, and local market characteristics. Data on …rms’costs are very rare. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 10 / 44 Speci…cation of a Structural Model in EIO (1) To study competition in an industry, EIO researchers propose and estimate structural models of demand and supply where …rms behave strategically. What is an structural model in empirical IO? Models of consumer and …rm behavior where consumers are utility maximizers and …rms are pro…t maximizers. The parameters are structural in the sense that they describe consumer preferences, production technology, and institutional constraints. Under the principle of revealed preference, these parameters are estimated using micro data on consumers’and …rms’choices and outcomes. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 11 / 44 Speci…cation: Typical Structure of IO Models 1. Model of consumer behavior (Demand) - Product di¤erentiation? 2. Model for …rms’costs - Economies of scale; Economies of scope? Entry costs? Investment costs? 3. Equilibrium model of static competition - Price (Bertrand), Quantity (Cournot). 4. Equilibrium model of market Entry-Exit 5. Equilibrium model of dynamic competition - Investment, advertising, quality, product characteristics, stores, etc. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 12 / 44 Speci…cation: Example Example based on Ryan (Econometrica, 2012). We start with an empirical question. US cement industry. Evaluation of the e¤ects in this industry of the 1990 Amendments to the Air Clean Act. The new law restricts the amount of emissions a cement plant can make. It requires the adoption of a "new" technology that implies lower marginal costs but larger …xed costs than the "old" technology. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 13 / 44 Speci…cation: Key Characteristics of the Industry The model here, though simple, incorporates some important features of the cement industry. 1. Homogeneous product. (We abstract from spatial di¤erentiation). 2. Substantial …xed costs from operating a plant (cement furnace). 3. Variable costs increase in a convex way when output approaches full capacity. 4. Capacity investment is an important strategic variable. 5. Industry is very local (due to high transportation costs per dollar value). It can be characterized as a set of many "isolated" local markets. 6. Oligopolist industry. Small number of …rms at a local market. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 14 / 44 Speci…cation: Data The speci…cation of the model depends importantly on the data that is available for the researcher. M local markets (e.g., towns) observed over T consecutive quarters. We index markets by m and quarters by t. For every market-quarter observation, the dataset contains information on: the number of plants operating in the market (Nmt ), aggregate amount of output produced by all the plants (Qmt ), market price (Pmt ), and some exogenous market characteristics, population, average income, etc (Xmt ). Data = f Pmt , Qmt , Nmt , Xmt : m = 1, 2, ..., M; t = 1, 2, ..., T g Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 15 / 44 Speci…cation: Structure of the model Our model of oligopoly competition has four main components: (a) demand equation; (b) cost function; (c) model of Cournot competition; (d) model of market entry. An important aspect in the construction of an econometric model is the speci…cation of unobservables. In general, the richer the speci…cation of unobservables in a model, the more robust the empirical …ndings. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 16 / 44 Speci…cation: Demand Equation Demand is linear in prices and in parameters. Qmt = Smt β0 and β1 β0 + βX XD mt β1 Pmt + εD mt 0 are parameters. Smt represents ‘true‘demand size. Smt Smt expfεSmt g εSmt and εD mt are random variables with zero mean. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 17 / 44 Speci…cation: Demand Equation (2) For some of our derivations it is convenient to represent demand using the inverse demand curve: Pmt = Amt where Victor Aguirregabiria () Bmt Qmt Amt β0 + βX Xmt + εD mt β1 Bmt 1 β1 Smt Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 18 / 44 Speci…cation: Cost Function Every …rm, either an incumbent or a potential entrant, has the same cost function: C (qimt ) = VCmt (q ) + FCmt The Variable Cost is quadratic: MC MC γMC + γMC 1 X Xmt + εmt VCmt (q ) = MC MC with γMC 1 , γX , and γ2 q+ γMC 2 q2 2 0 are parameters. The marginal cost is: MCmt (q ) = MC mt + γMC 2 q where MC mt MC MC γMC + γMC 1 X Xmt + εmt is the exogenous MC . The Fixed Cost is: FC FC FC FCmt = γFC 1 + γX Xmt + εmt Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 19 / 44 Speci…cation: Cournot Competition Suppose that there are Nmt plants active in local market m at quarter. We assume that …rms active in a local market compete with each other ala Cournot. The pro…t function of a …rm is: e ) = Pmt (q + Q e) q Πmt (q, Q VCmt (q ) FCmt This best response output is characterized by the following condition of optimality: Pmt + e) ∂Pmt (q + Q q = MCmt (q ) ∂q An given our speci…cation of demand and costs, this condition implies: qmt (N ) = Victor Aguirregabiria () Amt MC mt Bmt (N + 1) + γMC 2 Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 20 / 44 Speci…cation: Cournot Competition (2) The equilibrium price-cost margin is, Pmt AVCmt = Bmt + γMC 2 /2 qmt (N ) And the Cournot equilibrium pro…t of an active …rm (with N …rms in the market) is: Πmt (N ) = Bmt + γMC 2 /2 Amt MC mt Bmt (N + 1) + γMC 2 2 FCmt This Cournot equilibrium pro…t function is continuous and strictly decreasing in the number of active …rms, N. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 21 / 44 Speci…cation: Model of Market Entry The equilibrium entry condition establishes that every active …rm and every potential entrant is maximizing pro…ts. Active …rms should be making non-negative pro…ts: Πmt (Nmt ) 0. Potential entrants are not leaving positive pro…ts on the table: Πmt (Nmt + 1) < 0. There is a unique value of N that satis…es the equilibrium conditions Πmt (N ) 0 and Πmt (N + 1) < 0. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 22 / 44 Speci…cation: Model of Market Entry (2) Let Nmt be the real number that (uniquely) solves the condition Πmt (N ) = 0. s MC 1 + γMC γ 2 /2Bmt + Amt MC mt Nmt 1+ 2 Bmt FCmt Bmt The equilibrium number of …rms is the largest integer that is smaller than Nmt : Nmt = int (Nmt ) The entry equilibrium condition, Πmt (Nmt ) = 0, is equivalent to: (qmt )2 = Victor Aguirregabiria () Nmt int (Nmt ) Empirical IO 2 FCmt Bmt + γMC 2 /2 Toronto. Winter 2015 23 / 44 Structural Equations The model can be described as a system of three equations with three endogenous variables, N, P, and q Q/N, Demand equation: P = A Cournot Equilibrium Condition: q = Entry Equilibrium Condition: q 2 = B N q A MC B (N + 1) + γMC 2 FC B + γMC 2 /2 where A, B, MC , γMC 2 , and FC are exogenously given. This system of equations is denoted as the structural equations of the model. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 24 / 44 Reduced Form Equations This is a system of simultaneous equations. The solution to this system of equations determines the value (or values) of the endogenous variables fN, P, q g for given values of the exogenous variables X and ε (εD , εS , εMC , εFC ), and the structural parameters θ f β0 s, γMC 0 s, γFC 0 s g. N = fN (X, ε, θ) q = fq (X, ε, θ) P = fP (X, ε, θ) This system of equations is denoted as the reduced form equations of the model. The model has well-de…ned reduced form functions/equations if for every value of (X, ε, θ) an equilibrium exists and it is unique. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 25 / 44 Equilibrium Existence and Uniqueness Given the assumptions of our model, we have that for every value of (X, ε, θ) an equilibrium exists and it is unique. Entry equilibrium condition determines q, s FC q= B + γMC 2 /2 Plugging q into Cournot eq. condition, we get: s MC γ 1 + γMC 2 /2B N= 1+ 2 + A MC B FC B And plugging these expressions for N and q in the demand equation we obtain the equilibrium price: s FC P = MC + (γMC + B) 2 B + γMC 2 /2 Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 26 / 44 Identi…cation The researcher wants to use data and this model to estimate the vector of structural parameters θ f β0 s, γMC 0 s, γFC 0 s g. Econometric model (without εSmt ): Qmt Smt Pmt 1 qmt β1 Smt 2 qmt + β1 γMC qmt 2 Smt = βX XD mt β1 Pmt + εD mt MC q MC = γMC XMC mt + εmt mt + γ2 X FC FC = γFC X Xmt + εmt Assumption 1: Mean independence between exogenous observables and unobservables: E (εmt j Xmt ) = 0 Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 27 / 44 Identi…cation (2) We say the parameters of the model are identify if there is a feasible estimator of θ that is consistent in a statistical or econometric sense. A standard approach to prove identi…cation consists in using the moment restrictions implied by the model to show that we can uniquely determine the value of θ as a function of moments that include only observable variables. For instance, in a classical linear regression model Y = X β + ε under the assumptions E(X ε) = 0 and E(X X 0 ) is non-singular, we have that β = E(XX 0 ) 1 E(XY ) such that this expression shows that the vector of parameters β is identi…ed using data of Y and X . Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 28 / 44 Endogeneity In our model, the mean independence assumption E(εmt j Xmt ) = 0 is not su¢ cient to identify the mode. The three structural equations include endogenous regressors. From the reduced form (equilibrium conditions of the model), we know that Pmt , qmt , and Nmt depend on the unobservables εmt such that: E(εmt Pmt ) 6= 0 ; E(εmt qmt ) 6= 0 ; E(εmt Nmt ) 6= 0 Therefore, OLS estimation of any of the structural equations, for instance demand Qmt Smt = βX XD mt β1 Pmt + εD mt generates inconsistent estimates. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 29 / 44 Endogeneity (2) Under the mean independence assumption E(εmt j Xmt ) = 0 we can estimate consistently "reduced form parameters". However, without further restrictions, the parameters that we can identify from the reduce form equations are not su¢ cient to separately identify the structural parameters in demand, variable costs, and …xed costs. For instance, in the reduce form equation for Nmt we have: s MC 1 + γMC γ 2 /2Bmt + Amt MC mt Nmt 1+ 2 Bmt FCmt Bmt Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 30 / 44 Some identi…cation approaches in empirical IO To identify the model we need more information, either in the form of data or/and additional restrictions in the model. Some identi…cation approaches used in EIO include: 1. Randomized experiments 2. Exclusion restrictions (Instrumental Variables) 3. "Natural experiments" as exclusion restrictions 4. Restrictions on covariance-structure of unobservables 4a. Arellano-Bond instruments 4b. Hausman-Nevo instruments 4c. Zero-covariance between unobservables 5. Partial identi…cation (bounds) Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 31 / 44 Randomized experiments The implementation of a randomized experiment is an ideal situation for the identi…cation of an econometric model. However, the careful design of a useful randomized experiment is not a trivial problem. The structural model is a useful tool in the design of the randomized experiment. Suppose that we want to estimate …rst the demand equation. We need to design an experiment that generates sample variation in price that is not perfectly correlated with Xmt it is independent of the unobserved demand shock εD mt . Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 32 / 44 Randomized experiments (2) Suppose that experiment consists in a …rm subsidy per unit of output produced and sold in the market, τ mt τ mt is determined as random draw from some distribution. We need also to assume that the implementation of the experiment does not introduce any change in the behavior of consumers. Under these conditions, we have that E(τ mt εD mt ) = 0; no perfect collinearity between τ mt and Xmt ; and E(τ mt Pmt ) 6= 0. These conditions imply that we can use τ mt as an instrument for the Pmt in the demand equation, to identify all the parameters in the demand. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 33 / 44 Randomized experiments (3) Possible issues. Agents behavior may change if they know that they are the subjects of an experiment. Firms may change the way they compete during the time that experiment is implemented. For instance, they may decide to agree not to change their levels of output such that the subsidy will not be pass-through to the price and they will keep the subsidy as a pure transfer. Most importantly, if some consumers are aware of the existence of this experiment, and given the temporary nature of the experiment, they may decide to buy cement for inventory. In that case, the experiment will a¤ect the demand and the estimates of the demand parameters based on this randomized experiment will be biased. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 34 / 44 Exclusion restrictions (Instrumental Variables) In econometrics, the most common approach to deal with endogeneity problems is using instrumental variables. In a system of simultaneous equation, we can get instrumental variables if we impose exclusion restrictions: some exogenous variables do not enter into some structural equations. For instance, if XMC or/and XFC includes variables which are not in XD , then we can use these variables in (XMC ,XFC ) as instruments for Pmt in the estimation of the demand. For instance, the price of limestone and coal could be exclusion restrictions in our application. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 35 / 44 "Natural experiments" as exclusion restrictions Consider an unexpected natural shock at period t that a¤ected the production cost of …rms in a speci…c region. Let Imt be the indicator of the event “market a¤ected by the natural experiment”. Imt = 1ft t g Em Em is the binary indicator of the event "market m belongs to the region a¤ected by the natural event". The key identi…cation assumption to use Imt as an instrument for price is that the natural event did not a¤ect demand such that E(Imt εD mt ) = 0. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 36 / 44 "Natural experiments" (2) Assumption E(Imt εD mt ) = 0 is typically implausible. Though the natural event is completely exogenous and unexpected, it may have occurred in markets that have relatively high (or low) levels of demand, or during a period of high (or low) demand. For this reason, most applications using identi…cation from ’natural experiments’assume a particular structure of unobservables. D D D εD mt = ω m + δt + umt , The researcher can control for ω D m using market dummies, and for δt using time dummies. D ) = 0. The identi…cation assumption is that E(Imt umt Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 37 / 44 Restrictions on covariance-structure of unobservables Suppose that: εD mt D D = ωD m + δt + umt , εMC mt MC MC = ω MC + umt m + δt This structure together with restrictions on the serial or/and the D or u MC , can be exploited to spatial correlation of the shocks umt mt obtain exclusion restrictions and instrumental variables estimators. We distinguish two cases depending on whether the restrictions are on the serial correlation of the shock (i.e., Arellano-Bond Instruments), or on the spatial correlation (i.e., Hausman-Nevo Instruments). Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 38 / 44 Arellano-Bond instruments Consider the demand equation in …rst di¤erences: ∆ Qmt Smt = βX ∆XD mt D β1 ∆Pmt + ∆δD t + ∆umt D is not serially correlated over time such Suppose that the shock umt D D D that ∆umt is correlated with ∆umt 1 but not with ∆umt 2 , ... Arellano-Bond instruments. Under this condition, the lagged endogenous variables fPmt 2 , Qmt 2 , Nmt 2 g are not correlated with D , and they are potential instruments to estimate the error ∆umt demand parameters. In our example, given that the model does not incorporate dynamics in demand or supply, the key identi…cation assumption is that shocks MC in the marginal cost are more time persistent that demand umt D . shocks umt Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 39 / 44 Hausman-Nevo instruments Suppose that we can classify the M local markets in R regions. Local markets in the same region may share similar supply of inputs in the production of cement and similar production costs. D is not spatially correlated, such Suppose that the demand shock umt that local markets in the same region have independent demand shocks. Under these assumptions, the average price in region R (excluding market m): 1 P ( m )t = Pm 0 t ∑ MR 1 m 0 6=m,m 0 2R can be used as an instrument to estimate demand parameters. The key identi…cation assumption is that the MC has spatial D . correlation that is not present in demand shocks umt Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 40 / 44 Zero-covariance between unobservables In simultaneous equations models, an assumption of zero covariance between the unobservables of two structural equations provides a moment condition that can be used to identi…ed structural parameters. For instance, consider the restrictions: D FC MC E(εFC mt εmt ) = 0 and E( εmt εmt ) = 0. These conditions imply two additional moment restrictions that together with the E(Xmt εmt ) = 0 can identify all the parameters of the model. Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 41 / 44 Zero-covariance restrictions: Example Suppose that the unobserved demand, εD mt , and the unobserved …xed cost, εFC , are not correlated. mt Under this assumption, the model implies that 1 Smt Qmt Nmt 2 is not correlated with εD mt . 1 Qmt 2 as an instrument of Pmt in the Smt Nmt estimation of the demand. That is, we have two moment conditions two estimate two parameters: Therefore, we can use E E Victor Aguirregabiria () 1 Smt Qmt Nmt 2 Qmt Smt Qmt Smt Empirical IO β0 + β1 Pmt β0 + β1 Pmt = 0 ! = 0 Toronto. Winter 2015 42 / 44 Extensions The previous model is quite restrictive in di¤erent economic and econometric aspects. Some possible extensions: 1 Heterogeneity in …rm costs. 2 Product di¤erentiation (vertical or/and horizontal). 3 Forward-looking behavior: dynamic entry and exit decisions. 4 Endogenous costs: a …rm’s investment can reduce its MC . 5 Endogenous product quality: a …rm’s investment can improve the quality of its product. 6 Product portfolio: e.g.,store locations. 7 Mergers. 8 Collusive behavior Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 43 / 44 An overview of the course (Topics) The course concentrates on the following topics. 1 Dynamic models of …rms’decisions (under perfect of monopoly competition) Capital; capacity; inventories; prices; advertising; stores, ... 2 Dynamic models of consumer demand Storable and durable products; consumer switching costs; learning; ... 3 Dynamic games of oligopoly competition Entry-exit games and deterrence; quality/capacity races; endogenous product characteristics; networks; ... Victor Aguirregabiria () Empirical IO Toronto. Winter 2015 44 / 44
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