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CNI Indicators
ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 18 • Number 2 • February 2015
INDUSTRIAL
SURVEY
Industry accumulates unwanted inventories
Data from the Industrial Survey for February 2015 show a further deterioration in activity levels. Once again,
the production evolution index moved away from the 50-point mark, showing an intense and widespread
drop in production as compared to January. The index of evolution of number of employees remained virtually
stable at a level below 50 points, indicating a decline in employee numbers.
As a result, idleness is up again. Capacity utilization stood at 66% in February, down by one percentage point
from January and by six percentage points from February 2014. The index of actual-usual capacity utilization
in turn fell to 35.9 points, down by 2.6 points from the figure recorded in January and by 8.8 points on a yearon-year basis.
Furthermore, the index of inventory level evolution stood at 51.4 points, above the 50-point dividing line.
The index of actual-planned inventory levels also drifted away from the dividing line and hit the mark of
51.8 points – pointing to higher-than-planned inventory levels. For large companies, the index reached 55.3
points.
In general, expectations became more pessimistic in March as compared to February – except expectations
for export volumes, whose index remained close to the dividing line. The investment intentions index
experienced a further drop: by 2.2 points from February and by 11.5 points as compared to March 2014.
Actual-planned inventory levels - Large companies
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
56.1
55.3
53.5
52.1
Above
planned levels
52.7
50
Below
planned levels
FEB
2010
FEB
2011
FEB
2012
FEB
2013
FEB
2014
The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-planned inventories.
1
FEB
2015
The indicator of
actual-planned
inventory levels
grew again among
large companies,
approaching the
levels observed
in the 2011-2012
period.
Industrial Survey
ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 18 • Number 2 • February 2015
Production evolution
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase
50
Decrease
Production declined further in February
among companies of all sizes.
Medium companies
Large companies
General industry
Small companies
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
42.7
40.1
37.1
35.7
40.7
37.8
46.6
43.4
The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate increased production month over month.
Evolution of number of employees
Small and medium enterprises, which account
for most industrial jobs, experienced a further
decline in employment. Despite the increase in the
indicator, employee numbers keep falling among
large companies (figure below 50 points).
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase
50
Decrease
Medium companies
Large companies
General industry
Small companies
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
Jan/15
Feb/15
44.4
44.7
42.4
42.1
43.3
42.7
46.0
47.0
The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate increased number of employees month over month.
Average capacity utilization
Percentage (%)
72
72
71
70
66
FEB
2011
FEB
2012
FEB
2013
FEB
2014
FEB
2015
2
Average capacity
utilization levels
reached an alltime low since the
monthly series
began to be carried
out in 2011. The
index is down by six
percentage points
from February 2014.
Industrial Survey
ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 18 • Number 2 • February 2015
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS
-2.1 points
Investment intentions
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
month over month
-11.4 points
65
year on year
60.9
58.6
60
55
52.0
The index has experienced
its third consecutive
decline, accumulating a
5.2-point drop in 2015.
49.3
50
47.2
NOV
2013
JAN
2014
JUL
MAY
MAR
SEP
NOV
JAN
2015
MAR
The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
COMPANY
SIZES:
In March, the
investment
intentions index
edged down
among companies
of all sizes.
Investment intention by size
Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
66.6
65.3
65
58.2
57.3
55.9
54.7
55
52.2
44.3
48.1
45
42.4
38.6 37.3
35
NOV
2013
JAN
2014
Small
MAR
MAY
Medium
JUL
SEP
NOV
Large
The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
3
JAN
2015
MAR
Industrial Survey
ISSN 1676-0212 • Year 18 • Number 2 • February 2015
Results
MONTHLY EVOLUTION OF INDUSTRY
NUMBER OF
EMPLOYEES
EVOLUTION
PRODUCTION
EVOLUTION
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
48.3 42.7 40.1 48.9 44.4 44.7
total
ACTUAL- USUAL
CAPACITY
UTILIZATION
CAPACITY
UTILIZATION (%)
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
72
67
66
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
INVENTORIES
LEVELS
EVOLUTION
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
ACTUAL-PLANNED
INVENTORIES
Feb
2015
Feb
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
44.7 38.5 35.9 49.8 50.0 51.4 49.9 50.5 51.8
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
Mining and
46.9 44.0 43.0 50.9 42.4 46.6
quarrying
72
70
72
44.9 43.0 42.7 50.5 51.9 49.1 49.2 48.8 50.3
Manufacturing 48.3 42.7 40.0 48.8 44.4 44.6
71
67
66
44.7 38.3 35.6
49.7 49.9 51.4 50.0 50.6 51.8
BY COMPANY SIZE
Small1 45.4
37.1
35.7
47.1 42.4 42.1
66
60
60
42.9 36.6 34.0 48.6 46.7 47.1
46.5 45.5 45.7
Medium2 48.1 40.7 37.8
48.6 43.3 42.7
71
65
65
44.5 37.5 34.6 49.6 48.9 50.7 49.1 49.7 50.8
Large3 49.8 46.6 43.4 50.0 46.0 47.0
75
72
70
45.7 39.9 37.6
50.4 52.2 53.8 52.1 53.5 55.3
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points suggest a positive evolution, higher-than-planned inventories, ou higher-than-usual capacity utilization.
1 - Company with 10-49 employees. 2 - Company with 50-249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
DEMAND
total
NUMBER OF
EMPLOYEES
EXPORTS VOLUMES
PURCHASES OF RAW
MATERIALS
INVESTMENT
INTENTIONS*
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Mar
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
57.9
48.9
48.0
53.1
49.5
49.6
55.6
46.9
45.6
51.8
44.9
43.4
58.6
49.3
47.2
BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
Mining and
quarrying
64.3
54.0
53.1
60.2
53.4
48.3
57.5
49.0
48.1
53.3
45.0
45.6
58.8
54.7
54.3
Manufacturing
57.6
48.7
47.8
52.8
49.4
49.7
55.5
46.9
45.5
51.7
44.9
43.2
58.6
49.1
46.9
BY COMPANY SIZE
Small1
57.6
46.0
45.5
49.8
46.8
48.6
55.9
44.3
43.4
51.9
43.6
42.1
48.1
38.6
37.3
Medium2
57.3
48.0
45.3
54.3
49.6
48.3
54.7
45.5
43.1
50.8
44.0
41.8
55.8
44.3
42.4
Large3
58.4
50.8
50.6
54.1
50.8
50.8
56.0
49.0
47.9
52.2
46.0
44.8
65.3
57.3
54.7
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations.
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
1 - Company with 10-49 employees. 2 - Company with 50-249 employees. 3 - Company with 250-plus employees.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including historical
series and methodology, kindly visit:
www.cni.org.br/sondindustrial (in Portuguese only)
Survey data
Sample profile: 2,246 enterprises, including 889
small, 802 medium and 555 large companies.
Data collection period: March 2-11, 2015.
INDUSTRIAL SURVEY – MANUFACTURING AND MINING | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic
Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Analysis: Marcelo Souza Azevedo |
Statistics: Roxana Rossy Campos and Aretha Silícia Lopez Soares |Technical information: +55 (61) 3317-9472 - Fax: +55 (61) 3317-9456 – email: [email protected] | Graphic design
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