TO: Interested Parties FROM: Geoff Garin DATE: April 10, 2015 RE: Voters Do Not Want Congress to Block the Iran Nuclear Agreement From April 6 to 8, 2015, Hart Research Associates surveyed a representative national cross section of 806 registered voters regarding the recently negotiated framework agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The interviews were conducted on both landline and cellular telephones. The statistical margin of error associated with a sample of this size is ±3.5 percentage points. This memorandum summarizes the key survey findings. (1) A large majority of voters are favorable toward the Iran nuclear agreement after hearing a short description of its basic elements. Respondents were read the following description of the agreement: This agreement places limits on Iran's nuclear program that would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It caps the level to which Iran can enrich uranium to far below what is necessary to make a nuclear weapon. The agreement also significantly reduces Iran's uranium and plutonium production capabilities. Under the agreement, Iran will submit to intrusive, short-notice inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In return for limiting its nuclear program, Iran would receive gradual relief from US and international economic sanctions, as long as it complies with the terms of the agreement. Once in effect, the main provisions of the agreement last for 10 to 25 years. Overall, 61% say they favor the agreement (28% strongly favor, 33% somewhat favor), while 34% say they oppose the agreement. Majorities of Democrats and independents favor the agreement, while a smaller majority of Republicans oppose it. Favor % Oppose % 61 34 Democrats 81 16 Independents 58 35 Republicans 41 52 All voters Voters who report that they already were familiar with the agreement prior to being interviewed favor the agreement by 58% to 39%. 1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009 202-234-5570 202-232-8134 FAX www.hartresearch.com Hart Research Associates (2) From the voters’ perspective, the most important elements of the agreement relate to the inspection and verification provisions. Respondents were asked to rate their reaction to six specific aspects of the framework agreement. While clear majorities of voters view each of the elements favorably, two aspects of the agreement particularly stand out. (3) The agreement allows for intrusive, short-notice inspections and monitoring of Iran's compliance with the agreement by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and would result in expanded access to Iranian sites by international inspectors (69% favorable, including 44% very favorable). The strong inspection system means that if Iran violates the agreement, inspectors will find out, and decisive action against Iran—including strong international economic sanctions—can be taken quickly (74% favorable, including 53% very favorable). By a large and decisive margin, voters want Congress to allow the agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation, rather than take action now to block the agreement and prevent it from being implemented. Fully 65% of voters say the better course for Congress would be to allow the agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation. Only 30% want Congress to block the agreement and prevent its implementation. Large majorities of both Democrats and independents want to allow the agreement to move forward, while Republicans are divided on the question. Allow Agreement to Go Forward % Block Agreement and Prevent Implementation % 65 30 Democrats 82 15 Independents 64 27 Republicans 47 48 All voters Page 2 Hart Research Associates (4) Voters continue to support the agreement after hearing what opponents and supporters say about it, demonstrating an important degree of durability and depth to the support measured in earlier questions. Respondents heard the following statements from opponents and supporters of the Iran nuclear agreement: Opponents of the agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program say it is not strong enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons because it only scales back Iran's nuclear program rather than ending it, and because the deal is not permanent. These opponents say Congress should take action to block the agreement, and that Congress should instead impose more economic sanctions until Iran makes more concessions on its nuclear program. Supporters of the agreement say it is the best and most realistic way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The deal will make the United States and its allies safer because it cuts off Iran's pathways to nuclear weapons. The only real alternative to this agreement would be military action and American involvement in another Middle Eastern war. These supporters say that Congress should allow the agreement to go forward and then closely monitor its implementation. After hearing what both sides have to say about the agreement, 57% of voters say they agree more with the supporters and 38% say they agree more with the opponents. Airing the viewpoints of the two sides does not have a significant impact on the positions of either Democratic voters (79% agree with supporters, 17% agree with opponents) or independents (55% agree with supporters, 38% agree with opponents), while Republican voters become somewhat more polarized against the agreement (36% agree more with the supporters, 59% agree more with the opponents). This poll was commissioned by Americans United for Change. Page 3
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