Strategy and Recommendations
CH A PT ER
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Strategy and Recommendations
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Bangsamoro Development Plan
6
Strategy and Recommendations
A. Overall Goal of the Bangsamoro
Development Plan
The immediate objective of the BDP is to provide an
citizen security, justice and the rule of law. In shifting the
immediate short- and medium-term vision and strategy
economy toward high value production that improves
for the recovery and development of the Bangsamoro
overall welfare, promoting inclusive and sustainable
based on its unique needs, anchored in justice and
growth, ensuring a proper and more transparent and
building a peaceful and prosperous society emerging
accountable distribution of public funds, and establishing
from long years of conflict. The BDP will build the
a peaceful and stable society, the BDP will help the
foundations of a functioning “just economy” that will
Bangsamoro break the vicious cycle of injustice, insecurity,
strengthen institutions and promote greater access to
and underdevelopment, fostering a virtuous cycle where
social services, jobs and economic opportunities, and
sustained poverty reduction can take hold (see Figure 7).
Figure 7: Transforming a Vicious Cycle to a Virtuous Cycle
Source: BDP-CPT
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Strategy and Recommendations
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B. Strategic Interventions
C. Priorities
The BDP must address these challenges through an integrated
Table 10 shows the sequencing of projects/activities
approach of transforming the institutions of the state and
envisaged during the transition period of Phase I and into
restoring confidence among citizens to build a society that is
the Bangsamoro Government in Phase II. Further details
resilient to external stresses.
of the recommended list of projects under the various
sectoral concerns are discussed in the next chapter. As
However, with limited resources, priority socioeconomic
a general principle, priority programs and projects are
interventions must be tailored to the local environment and
selected on the basis of their ability to restore confidence
focused on areas most prone to social exclusion, poverty, and
in the peace process and build “inclusive enough
violence.
coalitions” to support reform.
1. Investments for Social Justice. Increasing access to basic
Programs that generate jobs and improve the quality of
services and employment and livelihood opportunities
life will be a top priority. Those that open up access to
are necessary to promote social justice. Where poverty
culturally important initiatives, such as Islamic financing,
incidence is low but the number of poor people is high
halal industry development, support for madaris, and
(e.g., in densely populated urbanized communities),
cultural activities to record and celebrate the rich history
programs must be tailored to target those most in need.
of the Bangsamoro people will also be given priority in
Where poverty incidence is high but the number of poor
the initial period.
people is low (e.g., in rural areas), programs must benefit
the whole community.
Finally, the Bangsamoro will embark on programs
that will put the region on track to build legitimate
2. Support to Economic Growth and Production. Where
institutions—those
with
technical
capacity
and
there is potential for improving productivity or expanding
accountability—that will sustain the gains of the FAB and
capacity, particularly in small-scale enterprise farming
CAB.
and fishing, programs must open up opportunities for
growth.
3. Support
to
Areas
Vulnerable
to
Conflict
and
Environmental Shocks. In areas prone to conflict or
environmental shocks, or both, programs must address
past or current injustice while building a socially
cohesive
resilient
community.
In
particular,
early
recovery and humanitarian support is essential.
D. Potential Impacts
The reduction of violence in ARMM in recent years,
combined
with
regional
governance
reforms
and
increased investment from the Central Government,
development partners, and the private sector, resulted in
economic growth of 3.6% in 2013. During the transition
to the Bangsamoro Government, the BDP must, at a
minimum, be able to preserve, sustain, and improve
these gains. But higher economic growth is necessary to
To maximize the benefits, build synergies across the region,
catch up with the rest of the nation.
and foster a strong common growth objective, interventions
will further be designed to ensure points of geographic
Central Government spending during the transition
convergence across sectoral interventions. With a strong
period (2015 to mid-2016) will be a catalyst for growth.
complementary institutional reform and strengthening program,
Targeted spending toward activities and programs that
the BDP will help lift the Bangsamoro to higher sustained
accrue to the local economy, particularly in terms of
growth in the medium and the long term.
inducing local employment, would imply additional
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Bangsamoro Development Plan
Table 10: Sequencing of Recommended Projects/Activities for Phases I and II of the Transition Period
Theme
36
Phase I
Phase II
Economy and Livelihood
• Provide basic agricultural assistance to farmers and
fishers, including women, to ensure food security
• Provide financial support to develop small-scale
agricultural and fishery industries
• Develop organic farming industry
• Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to promote
agribusiness investments, and studies to create
integrated development zones
• Develop Polloc Port and other export processing zones
as manufacturing and trading hubs
• Promote Bangsamoro as a regional trade partner
• Develop economic policies
• Promote and establish Islamic microfinance institutions
• Accelerate provision of agricultural services and
goods to farmers and fishers
• Continue development of organic farming
industry
• Promote growth of the halal food
industry
• Strengthen Islamic financial institutions
• Implement recommendations of
analytical/feasibility studies
Infrastructure
• Provide infrastructure projects along key value-chains
to improve economic growth and increase productivity,
improve delivery of basic education, and health services,
etc.
• Provide key energy projects
• Conduct feasibility and detailed engineering studies of
strategic infrastructure projects
• Complete key infrastructure projects started in
Phase I
• Implement infrastructure projects with
completed feasibility and detailed engineering
studies
Social Services
• Write Bangsamoro history textbooks (traditions, culture,
governance, and values transformation)
• Strengthen provision of basic health services
(immunization, nutrition, reproductive healthcare, mobile
clinics, etc.) and medical missions
• Improve basic education (madrasah, adult education, IP
education, OSY programs, scholarships) and technical
vocational education
• Continue/intensify CCT and CDD programs
• Establish social safety nets and protection mechanisms
for the most vulnerable groups
• Conduct analytical studies in support of long-term
improvement of social service delivery
• The institutionalization of formal and informal peace
education-peacebuilding strategy
• Develop curriculum (including the integration of
Bangsamoro history for elementary and secondary
levels)
• Conduct propagation (Da’wah) on Bangsamoro
values formation
• Accelerate provision of basic education, health
services, and sanitation including reproductive
health
• Strengthen and sustain social safety nets and
protection mechanisms established for vulnerable
groups
• Implement recommendations to improve provision
of basic education, health services, and sanitation
• Establish centers for women
• Implement recommendations of analytical/
feasibility studies
Environment and Natural
Resources
• Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to establish
Shari’ah-compliant insurance system
• Implement sustainable forest management and
reforestation, reef and mangrove rehabilitation projects
in selected sites, recruit forest and sea guards, etc.
• Conduct capacity-building training programs on DRRM
in selected communities
• Accelerate implementation of activities on
conservation and rehabilitation
• Full mobilization and equipping of forest and
sea guards
• Implement institutional arrangements
and measures critical for a successful DRRM
response in the selected communities
Culture and Identity
• Construct public museums, libraries, historical markers,
and establishment of Bangsamoro public cemeteries
(maqaabir al-‘aam)
• Establish Bangsamoro language, orthography, cultural
and Da’wah centers
• Provide financing for youth and interfaith activities, and
grants for textbook development to promote a shared
understanding of the Bangsamoro struggle
• Promote culture-sensitive and gender-responsive health
approaches
• Promote tourism development with cultural identity
• Attain full operation of public museums, libraries,
language/cultural centers, and other programs and
projects started in Phase I
• Continue support for youth leadership trainings,
interfaith activities and similar peace efforts
• Strengthen culturally appropriate health systems
and approaches
• Establish cultural centers for women
Strategy and Recommendations
Theme
Governance, Justice, and
Security
CH A PT ER
6
Phase I
Phase II
• Develop a Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation
(RbM&E) system
• Establish technical assistance facilities for the
Bangsamoro, capacity-building of Bangsamoro
Government senior and mid-level officials of BTA
transition team
• Establish satellite offices of key national and regional
government agencies in the island provinces
• Implement CSO capacity-building programs on
monitoring service delivery in the Bangsamoro,
Bangsamoro Open Data Portal, regular polling on
justice, security and jobs
• Establish judicial capacity-building program for judges
and lawyers, increase access to legal aid for the poor
• Strengthen mediation and reconciliation capacity of
community level justice systems (especially on land
conflict and rido)
• Conduct analytical studies to improve good
governance, justice delivery, and security
• Institute and implement RbM&E into the
government system
• Continue implementation of capacity-building
programs for the Bangsamoro Government’s
senior and mid-level officials
• Operational national and regional satellite
offices
• Implement findings and recommendations of
analytical and feasibility studies undertaken in
Phase I
concession that could improve rapid national economic
implementation arrangements are in place, and therefore
growth.
fund-releases and implementation can proceed without
delay.
Proposed programs during the transition are projected to
reach PhP 225 billion. Around PhP 116 billion is already
Figure 8 presents the best-case (high) scenario and
covered by planned activities of various government
alternative scenarios (low and medium) using different
agencies for the period from 2014 to 2016. The financing
levels of utilization: 19% for the low scenario and 38%
gap of PhP 109 billion corresponds to proposed projects
for the medium scenario. Projected growth under the
that are not included in programmed budget of the
low scenario is 4.1% and 5.5% in 2015 and 2016,
government for 2014 to 2016. This allotment of funds for
respectively; and under the medium scenario is 6.5% to
various programs will have significant impact on economic
8.7%.
growth.
Figure 8: GRDP Growth Scenarios in Bangsamoro (2011–2016)
If inflation (which averaged around 6.5% between 2007
and 2013) remains stable, economic growth is projected
to reach as high as 9.7% in 2015 and 12.8% in 2016.
This is far above the projected growth at the baseline (i.e.,
following historical trends) which is at 1.9% in 2015 and
2.4% in 2016. This best-case scenario, however, assumes
a high absorptive capacity and at least a 63% utilization
rate of funds during the transition.
In addition, this assumes that detailed project plans
are in place, projects have been approved in principle,
contracting
out
of
projects
proceeds
smoothly,
Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate
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Bangsamoro Development Plan
The sources of growth during the transition will rely
55.8% in 2012. This would translate to 300,000 people
heavily on government spending, which cannot be
rising from poverty.
sustained in the medium term. Instead, the gains from
improved agriculture practices, infrastructure, and
High priority placed on wide delivery of basic social
public service should prompt the private sector to
services is expected to improve people’s capabilities and
participate more vigorously in the regional economy.
household welfare. An examination of the post-conflict
Building a “just economy” in the Bangsamoro through
situation reveals that the most important development
the targeted interventions identified in this plan will
constraint specific to the region is the level of its human
deliver the necessary conditions for the Bangsamoro to
resources and human capital. This is borne out, among
move to a higher growth path similar to that observed
others, by the extraordinarily low levels of education and
in Mindanao and the rest of the country in recent years.
health and other human-development indicators.
An average annual growth rate of 6% to 8% in 2017
to 2022 would help significantly in lifting communities
Table 11 presents the targeted improvements on selected
out of poverty. Sustained economic growth could
human development indicators by the end of the transition
reduce poverty incidence to 40% to 42% in 2022 from
and the medium term.
Table 11: Targets on Human Capital and Household Welfare
National
(baseline)
ARMM
(baseline)
Transition
(end 2016)
Medium Term
(end 2022)
Participation rate in elementary
school
95.2%
(2012 and 2013)
70.4%
(2013 and 2014)
75 to 80%
80 to 85%
Participation rate in high school
64.6%
(2012-2013)
26.1%
(2012-2013)
35 to 40%
55 to 60%
17%
(2012)
23%
(2012)
18 to 20%
15 to 17%
Adults with at least elementary
education
83.4% (2010)
54%
(2010)
56 to 58%
72 to 74%
Households with access to safe
water
79.9% (2012)
36.6%
(2012)
50 to 60%
60 to 70%
Households with access to sanitary
toilets
87.2% (2012)
22.5%
(2012)
30 to 40%
50 to 60%
Immunized children of age at 1 year
69%
(2013)
29%
(2013)
40 to 45%
60 to 70%
63.0% (2013)
44.2%
(2013)
50 to 55%
60 to 70%
88.8%
(2012)
58.1%
(FIES 2012)
60 to 65%
70 to 75%
Inactive youth (between 15 and 25
years old, not in school or labor
force)
Population with health insurance
coverage
Households with access to
electricity
Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate, using data from DepEd-ARMM (EBEIS) and PSA-LFS (2013), CPH (2010), and NDHS (2013)
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