Strategy and Recommendations CH A PT ER 6 6 Strategy and Recommendations 33 Bangsamoro Development Plan 6 Strategy and Recommendations A. Overall Goal of the Bangsamoro Development Plan The immediate objective of the BDP is to provide an citizen security, justice and the rule of law. In shifting the immediate short- and medium-term vision and strategy economy toward high value production that improves for the recovery and development of the Bangsamoro overall welfare, promoting inclusive and sustainable based on its unique needs, anchored in justice and growth, ensuring a proper and more transparent and building a peaceful and prosperous society emerging accountable distribution of public funds, and establishing from long years of conflict. The BDP will build the a peaceful and stable society, the BDP will help the foundations of a functioning “just economy” that will Bangsamoro break the vicious cycle of injustice, insecurity, strengthen institutions and promote greater access to and underdevelopment, fostering a virtuous cycle where social services, jobs and economic opportunities, and sustained poverty reduction can take hold (see Figure 7). Figure 7: Transforming a Vicious Cycle to a Virtuous Cycle Source: BDP-CPT 34 Strategy and Recommendations CH A PT ER 6 B. Strategic Interventions C. Priorities The BDP must address these challenges through an integrated Table 10 shows the sequencing of projects/activities approach of transforming the institutions of the state and envisaged during the transition period of Phase I and into restoring confidence among citizens to build a society that is the Bangsamoro Government in Phase II. Further details resilient to external stresses. of the recommended list of projects under the various sectoral concerns are discussed in the next chapter. As However, with limited resources, priority socioeconomic a general principle, priority programs and projects are interventions must be tailored to the local environment and selected on the basis of their ability to restore confidence focused on areas most prone to social exclusion, poverty, and in the peace process and build “inclusive enough violence. coalitions” to support reform. 1. Investments for Social Justice. Increasing access to basic Programs that generate jobs and improve the quality of services and employment and livelihood opportunities life will be a top priority. Those that open up access to are necessary to promote social justice. Where poverty culturally important initiatives, such as Islamic financing, incidence is low but the number of poor people is high halal industry development, support for madaris, and (e.g., in densely populated urbanized communities), cultural activities to record and celebrate the rich history programs must be tailored to target those most in need. of the Bangsamoro people will also be given priority in Where poverty incidence is high but the number of poor the initial period. people is low (e.g., in rural areas), programs must benefit the whole community. Finally, the Bangsamoro will embark on programs that will put the region on track to build legitimate 2. Support to Economic Growth and Production. Where institutions—those with technical capacity and there is potential for improving productivity or expanding accountability—that will sustain the gains of the FAB and capacity, particularly in small-scale enterprise farming CAB. and fishing, programs must open up opportunities for growth. 3. Support to Areas Vulnerable to Conflict and Environmental Shocks. In areas prone to conflict or environmental shocks, or both, programs must address past or current injustice while building a socially cohesive resilient community. In particular, early recovery and humanitarian support is essential. D. Potential Impacts The reduction of violence in ARMM in recent years, combined with regional governance reforms and increased investment from the Central Government, development partners, and the private sector, resulted in economic growth of 3.6% in 2013. During the transition to the Bangsamoro Government, the BDP must, at a minimum, be able to preserve, sustain, and improve these gains. But higher economic growth is necessary to To maximize the benefits, build synergies across the region, catch up with the rest of the nation. and foster a strong common growth objective, interventions will further be designed to ensure points of geographic Central Government spending during the transition convergence across sectoral interventions. With a strong period (2015 to mid-2016) will be a catalyst for growth. complementary institutional reform and strengthening program, Targeted spending toward activities and programs that the BDP will help lift the Bangsamoro to higher sustained accrue to the local economy, particularly in terms of growth in the medium and the long term. inducing local employment, would imply additional 35 Bangsamoro Development Plan Table 10: Sequencing of Recommended Projects/Activities for Phases I and II of the Transition Period Theme 36 Phase I Phase II Economy and Livelihood • Provide basic agricultural assistance to farmers and fishers, including women, to ensure food security • Provide financial support to develop small-scale agricultural and fishery industries • Develop organic farming industry • Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to promote agribusiness investments, and studies to create integrated development zones • Develop Polloc Port and other export processing zones as manufacturing and trading hubs • Promote Bangsamoro as a regional trade partner • Develop economic policies • Promote and establish Islamic microfinance institutions • Accelerate provision of agricultural services and goods to farmers and fishers • Continue development of organic farming industry • Promote growth of the halal food industry • Strengthen Islamic financial institutions • Implement recommendations of analytical/feasibility studies Infrastructure • Provide infrastructure projects along key value-chains to improve economic growth and increase productivity, improve delivery of basic education, and health services, etc. • Provide key energy projects • Conduct feasibility and detailed engineering studies of strategic infrastructure projects • Complete key infrastructure projects started in Phase I • Implement infrastructure projects with completed feasibility and detailed engineering studies Social Services • Write Bangsamoro history textbooks (traditions, culture, governance, and values transformation) • Strengthen provision of basic health services (immunization, nutrition, reproductive healthcare, mobile clinics, etc.) and medical missions • Improve basic education (madrasah, adult education, IP education, OSY programs, scholarships) and technical vocational education • Continue/intensify CCT and CDD programs • Establish social safety nets and protection mechanisms for the most vulnerable groups • Conduct analytical studies in support of long-term improvement of social service delivery • The institutionalization of formal and informal peace education-peacebuilding strategy • Develop curriculum (including the integration of Bangsamoro history for elementary and secondary levels) • Conduct propagation (Da’wah) on Bangsamoro values formation • Accelerate provision of basic education, health services, and sanitation including reproductive health • Strengthen and sustain social safety nets and protection mechanisms established for vulnerable groups • Implement recommendations to improve provision of basic education, health services, and sanitation • Establish centers for women • Implement recommendations of analytical/ feasibility studies Environment and Natural Resources • Conduct analytical and feasibility studies to establish Shari’ah-compliant insurance system • Implement sustainable forest management and reforestation, reef and mangrove rehabilitation projects in selected sites, recruit forest and sea guards, etc. • Conduct capacity-building training programs on DRRM in selected communities • Accelerate implementation of activities on conservation and rehabilitation • Full mobilization and equipping of forest and sea guards • Implement institutional arrangements and measures critical for a successful DRRM response in the selected communities Culture and Identity • Construct public museums, libraries, historical markers, and establishment of Bangsamoro public cemeteries (maqaabir al-‘aam) • Establish Bangsamoro language, orthography, cultural and Da’wah centers • Provide financing for youth and interfaith activities, and grants for textbook development to promote a shared understanding of the Bangsamoro struggle • Promote culture-sensitive and gender-responsive health approaches • Promote tourism development with cultural identity • Attain full operation of public museums, libraries, language/cultural centers, and other programs and projects started in Phase I • Continue support for youth leadership trainings, interfaith activities and similar peace efforts • Strengthen culturally appropriate health systems and approaches • Establish cultural centers for women Strategy and Recommendations Theme Governance, Justice, and Security CH A PT ER 6 Phase I Phase II • Develop a Results-based Monitoring and Evaluation (RbM&E) system • Establish technical assistance facilities for the Bangsamoro, capacity-building of Bangsamoro Government senior and mid-level officials of BTA transition team • Establish satellite offices of key national and regional government agencies in the island provinces • Implement CSO capacity-building programs on monitoring service delivery in the Bangsamoro, Bangsamoro Open Data Portal, regular polling on justice, security and jobs • Establish judicial capacity-building program for judges and lawyers, increase access to legal aid for the poor • Strengthen mediation and reconciliation capacity of community level justice systems (especially on land conflict and rido) • Conduct analytical studies to improve good governance, justice delivery, and security • Institute and implement RbM&E into the government system • Continue implementation of capacity-building programs for the Bangsamoro Government’s senior and mid-level officials • Operational national and regional satellite offices • Implement findings and recommendations of analytical and feasibility studies undertaken in Phase I concession that could improve rapid national economic implementation arrangements are in place, and therefore growth. fund-releases and implementation can proceed without delay. Proposed programs during the transition are projected to reach PhP 225 billion. Around PhP 116 billion is already Figure 8 presents the best-case (high) scenario and covered by planned activities of various government alternative scenarios (low and medium) using different agencies for the period from 2014 to 2016. The financing levels of utilization: 19% for the low scenario and 38% gap of PhP 109 billion corresponds to proposed projects for the medium scenario. Projected growth under the that are not included in programmed budget of the low scenario is 4.1% and 5.5% in 2015 and 2016, government for 2014 to 2016. This allotment of funds for respectively; and under the medium scenario is 6.5% to various programs will have significant impact on economic 8.7%. growth. Figure 8: GRDP Growth Scenarios in Bangsamoro (2011–2016) If inflation (which averaged around 6.5% between 2007 and 2013) remains stable, economic growth is projected to reach as high as 9.7% in 2015 and 12.8% in 2016. This is far above the projected growth at the baseline (i.e., following historical trends) which is at 1.9% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016. This best-case scenario, however, assumes a high absorptive capacity and at least a 63% utilization rate of funds during the transition. In addition, this assumes that detailed project plans are in place, projects have been approved in principle, contracting out of projects proceeds smoothly, Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate 37 Bangsamoro Development Plan The sources of growth during the transition will rely 55.8% in 2012. This would translate to 300,000 people heavily on government spending, which cannot be rising from poverty. sustained in the medium term. Instead, the gains from improved agriculture practices, infrastructure, and High priority placed on wide delivery of basic social public service should prompt the private sector to services is expected to improve people’s capabilities and participate more vigorously in the regional economy. household welfare. An examination of the post-conflict Building a “just economy” in the Bangsamoro through situation reveals that the most important development the targeted interventions identified in this plan will constraint specific to the region is the level of its human deliver the necessary conditions for the Bangsamoro to resources and human capital. This is borne out, among move to a higher growth path similar to that observed others, by the extraordinarily low levels of education and in Mindanao and the rest of the country in recent years. health and other human-development indicators. An average annual growth rate of 6% to 8% in 2017 to 2022 would help significantly in lifting communities Table 11 presents the targeted improvements on selected out of poverty. Sustained economic growth could human development indicators by the end of the transition reduce poverty incidence to 40% to 42% in 2022 from and the medium term. Table 11: Targets on Human Capital and Household Welfare National (baseline) ARMM (baseline) Transition (end 2016) Medium Term (end 2022) Participation rate in elementary school 95.2% (2012 and 2013) 70.4% (2013 and 2014) 75 to 80% 80 to 85% Participation rate in high school 64.6% (2012-2013) 26.1% (2012-2013) 35 to 40% 55 to 60% 17% (2012) 23% (2012) 18 to 20% 15 to 17% Adults with at least elementary education 83.4% (2010) 54% (2010) 56 to 58% 72 to 74% Households with access to safe water 79.9% (2012) 36.6% (2012) 50 to 60% 60 to 70% Households with access to sanitary toilets 87.2% (2012) 22.5% (2012) 30 to 40% 50 to 60% Immunized children of age at 1 year 69% (2013) 29% (2013) 40 to 45% 60 to 70% 63.0% (2013) 44.2% (2013) 50 to 55% 60 to 70% 88.8% (2012) 58.1% (FIES 2012) 60 to 65% 70 to 75% Inactive youth (between 15 and 25 years old, not in school or labor force) Population with health insurance coverage Households with access to electricity Source: NEDA and BDP-CPT estimate, using data from DepEd-ARMM (EBEIS) and PSA-LFS (2013), CPH (2010), and NDHS (2013) 38
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