Smart Electricity Production
the current situation and how users can
benefit from it
Jacob Klimstra
[email protected]
www.klimstra.nl
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
The electricity issues of these days
Security of supply
Environmentally friendly
Reliability
99.999%
Low costs
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
The uncertainties of these days
The availability of natural gas and its price
The CO2 price
The development of the economy
The costs of electricity
The rainfall
The subsidies for renewables and the government levies
The installation of solar PV panels
Electric vehicles
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
The Economist, 12 – 18 October 2013
‘How to lose half a
trillion euros’
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Fossil fuel prices …
Costs of primary energy ($/GJ) data 2014
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
17
15
10
4
Brent oil
April 22, 2015
Asian gas
European
gas
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
3
North
Australian
America gas
coal
The impact of renewables …
- Fast ramping up/down
- Frequent starts/stops
- Full load range possible
- Few running plants possible
April 22, 2015
‘Renewables always need flexible
back-up capacity’
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
A delicate balance: maintain grid stability
But inertia decreases…!!!
generation
April 22, 2015
balance
inertia
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
demand
Loss of a major power plant (10%)
With much renewable
capacity one needs:
- Many smaller generators
- Faster reserve capacity
- More distributed power
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Transmission line capacity collapses for
low cos φ values
voltage ratio Vout/Vin (%)
100
90
cos φ = 1
80
cos φ = 0.7
cos φ = 0.9
70
60
0
10
20
active power of load (MW)
30
40
The generation portfolio of Slovenia – 3 GW
peak load 2.1 GW - average load 1.6 GW
Hydro : 1.1 GW, multiple plants, pumped hydro
+ = flexibility!
- = rainfall dependency
Capacity factor 37%
Fossil fuel: 1.2 GW
capacity factor 42%
Unit 6, Sostanj 545 MW net 870 g/kWh CO2
If CO2 price 80 €/tonne  kWh costs + 7 €cts
Nuclear: 0.7 GW Capacity factor 86%
Public opinion + lifetime
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Slovenia, generation and load, April 9 – 15, 2015
Data from ELES
2500
load
Power (MW)
2000
generation
1500
1000
500
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
0
0
1
2
3
4
days from April 9, 2015
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
5
6
7
Unit 6 Termoelektrarna, Sostanj
If this unit trips, one can lose
1/3 of the on-line capacity
Reserves across the border?
What about the CO2 price
development?
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Modern economies suffer badly from black-outs
February 2014
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Solar irradiation in Slovenia
What if 600 MW of solar PV ?
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
The sun does not always shine (50Hertz TSO)
50Hertz Transmission region Germany, year 2012
Solar PV output (MW)
5000
4000
3000
Jan-02
2000
May-25
Jun-21
1000
Averaged Installed capacity≈ 6.2 GW
Maximum output: 4.5 GW
Energy produced: 5.13 TWh
Capacity factor: 9.5%
0
0
4
April 22, 2015
8
12
16
time of the day
20
24
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Trans-border interconnectors used to solve a lot …,
but countries increasingly have the same problems
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Weather systems generally cover large areas
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
A conference in Brussels some weeks ago
Heating/cooling : 2.5 times more energy than electricity use in the EU
“Every day, 1 billion € flow from the EU to unpleasant regimes”
There is enough waste heat to supply all heating needs
INTEGRATION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND HEATING/COOLING SUPPLY
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
With much wind and solar: very low
marginal electricity prices, even negative
Exhaust
Cheap
Electricity
Heat
pump
Power and heat integration
The best option
Heat
recovery
Heat User
Heat Storage
Fuel
April 22, 2015
Prime mover
Generator
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
Electricity User
Elering, Estonia, 250 MW on line in ≈ 5 minutes
27 engines in parallel: if one fails only 4% of capacity lost,
Sequential maintenance; non-spinning secondary reserves
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
CASCADING: Only run when it is really needed
50
fuel efficiency (%)
45
40
35
30
cascading power plant
25
20
single generating unit
15
10
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Power output (MW)
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
140
160
180
Agile Power Generation in case of low inertia
best in class response for primary frequency control
Power output (%)
100
steam
95
90
Industrial
GTCC
85
aeroderivative
GT
gas engine
80
75
0
10
20
time (s)
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy
30
Smart Power Generation can ………..
- Offer excellent primary reserves: low inertia is no problem
- Locally provide reactive power which HV AC transmission cannot
- Offer non-spinning secondary reserves thus saving fuel and wear
- Easily compensate for increased forecasting errors caused by renewables
- Offer fast and reliable frequency control
- Keep fuel efficiency constant in a wide load range
- Offer frequent starts and stops without additional wear
- Keep kWh costs low.
April 22, 2015
Jacob Klimstra consultancy