Smart Electricity Production the current situation and how users can benefit from it Jacob Klimstra [email protected] www.klimstra.nl April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy The electricity issues of these days Security of supply Environmentally friendly Reliability 99.999% Low costs April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy The uncertainties of these days The availability of natural gas and its price The CO2 price The development of the economy The costs of electricity The rainfall The subsidies for renewables and the government levies The installation of solar PV panels Electric vehicles April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy The Economist, 12 – 18 October 2013 ‘How to lose half a trillion euros’ April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Fossil fuel prices … Costs of primary energy ($/GJ) data 2014 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 17 15 10 4 Brent oil April 22, 2015 Asian gas European gas Jacob Klimstra consultancy 3 North Australian America gas coal The impact of renewables … - Fast ramping up/down - Frequent starts/stops - Full load range possible - Few running plants possible April 22, 2015 ‘Renewables always need flexible back-up capacity’ Jacob Klimstra consultancy A delicate balance: maintain grid stability But inertia decreases…!!! generation April 22, 2015 balance inertia Jacob Klimstra consultancy demand Loss of a major power plant (10%) With much renewable capacity one needs: - Many smaller generators - Faster reserve capacity - More distributed power April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Transmission line capacity collapses for low cos φ values voltage ratio Vout/Vin (%) 100 90 cos φ = 1 80 cos φ = 0.7 cos φ = 0.9 70 60 0 10 20 active power of load (MW) 30 40 The generation portfolio of Slovenia – 3 GW peak load 2.1 GW - average load 1.6 GW Hydro : 1.1 GW, multiple plants, pumped hydro + = flexibility! - = rainfall dependency Capacity factor 37% Fossil fuel: 1.2 GW capacity factor 42% Unit 6, Sostanj 545 MW net 870 g/kWh CO2 If CO2 price 80 €/tonne kWh costs + 7 €cts Nuclear: 0.7 GW Capacity factor 86% Public opinion + lifetime April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Slovenia, generation and load, April 9 – 15, 2015 Data from ELES 2500 load Power (MW) 2000 generation 1500 1000 500 Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed 0 0 1 2 3 4 days from April 9, 2015 April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy 5 6 7 Unit 6 Termoelektrarna, Sostanj If this unit trips, one can lose 1/3 of the on-line capacity Reserves across the border? What about the CO2 price development? April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Modern economies suffer badly from black-outs February 2014 April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Solar irradiation in Slovenia What if 600 MW of solar PV ? April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy The sun does not always shine (50Hertz TSO) 50Hertz Transmission region Germany, year 2012 Solar PV output (MW) 5000 4000 3000 Jan-02 2000 May-25 Jun-21 1000 Averaged Installed capacity≈ 6.2 GW Maximum output: 4.5 GW Energy produced: 5.13 TWh Capacity factor: 9.5% 0 0 4 April 22, 2015 8 12 16 time of the day 20 24 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Trans-border interconnectors used to solve a lot …, but countries increasingly have the same problems April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy Weather systems generally cover large areas April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy A conference in Brussels some weeks ago Heating/cooling : 2.5 times more energy than electricity use in the EU “Every day, 1 billion € flow from the EU to unpleasant regimes” There is enough waste heat to supply all heating needs INTEGRATION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY AND HEATING/COOLING SUPPLY April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy With much wind and solar: very low marginal electricity prices, even negative Exhaust Cheap Electricity Heat pump Power and heat integration The best option Heat recovery Heat User Heat Storage Fuel April 22, 2015 Prime mover Generator Jacob Klimstra consultancy Electricity User Elering, Estonia, 250 MW on line in ≈ 5 minutes 27 engines in parallel: if one fails only 4% of capacity lost, Sequential maintenance; non-spinning secondary reserves April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy CASCADING: Only run when it is really needed 50 fuel efficiency (%) 45 40 35 30 cascading power plant 25 20 single generating unit 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Power output (MW) April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy 140 160 180 Agile Power Generation in case of low inertia best in class response for primary frequency control Power output (%) 100 steam 95 90 Industrial GTCC 85 aeroderivative GT gas engine 80 75 0 10 20 time (s) April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy 30 Smart Power Generation can ……….. - Offer excellent primary reserves: low inertia is no problem - Locally provide reactive power which HV AC transmission cannot - Offer non-spinning secondary reserves thus saving fuel and wear - Easily compensate for increased forecasting errors caused by renewables - Offer fast and reliable frequency control - Keep fuel efficiency constant in a wide load range - Offer frequent starts and stops without additional wear - Keep kWh costs low. April 22, 2015 Jacob Klimstra consultancy
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