Canadian Aviation: By the Numbers
Dr. Mike Tretheway
InterVISTAS Consulting
Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer
26 March 2015
Commercial Pax
Canada Air Passenger Traffic
1988 – 2014E
Canada Air Passenger Traffic
Enplaned/Deplaned
140
Passengers (Millions)
120
100
80
60
40
20
1988
1993
Domestic
1999
2004
Transborder
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
3
International
2009
2014E
Canada Air Passenger Traffic
1988 - 2013
Share of Transborder and Other International Passengers
25%
% of Total
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1988
1993
1998
2003
Transborder
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2008
International
4
2011
2012
2013
Canada Air Passenger Traffic
1988 - 2013
Share of Transborder and Other International Passengers
25%
% of Total
20%
15%
28%
40%
10%
5%
0%
1988
1993
1998
2003
Transborder
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2008
International
5
2011
2012
2013
US Air Passenger Traffic
1962 – 2014
US Air Passenger Traffic
Enplaned Passengers
900
Passengers (Millions)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Domestic
Source:1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2014 BTS
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
International
6
US vs. Canada Passenger Traffic
1990 - 2014E
Passenger Growth in United States and Canada
Index Base 1990
250
200
150
100
50
US
Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from:
Canada: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports,
Statistics Canada. US: 1960-2006 ATA, 2007-2014 BTS.
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
Canada
7
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1995
1990
0
Nominal Average Fares
Canada - not adjusted for inflation
Average Fare for Major Carriers
$300
Average Fares
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Source: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-X
p = preliminary
Major Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz),
WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
8
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
$-
Real Average Fares
Canada – indexed to 2013
Average Fare for Major Carriers
$400
$350
Average Fares
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Source: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-X
p = preliminary
Major Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz),
WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
9
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
$-
Commercial Aircraft Movements
Canada: 1980 - 2013
Total Commercial Aircraft Movements
Aircraft Movements (millions)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Source: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and
Table 401-0009, Statistics Canada.
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
10
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1990
1985
1980
0
Passenger Traffic vs. Aircraft Movements
Canada: 1999 - 2013
Passenger Traffic vs. Aircraft Movements
160
Index Base 1999
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Aircraft Movements
Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
Passenger Traffic
11
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Passenger Traffic vs. Aircraft Movements
YVR: 1999 - 2013
YVR Passenger Traffic vs. Aircraft Movements
140
Index Base 1999
120
100
80
60
40
20
Aircraft Movements
Source: YVR Site Statistics
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
Passenger Traffic
12
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Passengers per Aircraft
Canada: 1980-2013
Average Passengers per Aircraft
80
Passengers
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from:
Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009,
Statistics Canada and Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports, Statistics Canada.
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
13
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1990
1985
1980
0
Average Aircraft Size
United States: 2001 – 2014 & 2015-2035 Forecast
Average Aircraft Size (Seats per Aircraft Mile)
250
Historical
Domestic
System
Forecast
International
200
150
100
50
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2015-2035
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
14
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014E
2013
2012
2011E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2001
0
Average Aircraft Size
United States: 2001 – 2014 & 2015-2035 Forecast
Average Aircraft Size (Seats per Aircraft Mile)
250
Historical
Domestic
System
Forecast
International
200
150
a/c size expected
to grow in
domestic market
100
50
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2015-2035
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
15
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014E
2013
2012
2011E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2001
0
Scheduled Flight Frequency
Domestic Canada
Domestic Canada Scheduled Non-Stop Frequency
Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages
79%
67%
70%
70%
72%
Annual Flight Frequency (Thousands)
1,000
900
800
700
Widebody
600
Narrow
Regional Jet
500
Turboprop
400
300
200
100
0
1998
2004
Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998;
Diio Mi Schedule Data ,full year data for 2004, 2008, 2013, 2015.
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2008
16
2013
2015
Scheduled Seat Capacity
Domestic Canada
Domestic Canada Scheduled Non-Stop Seats
Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages
49%
30%
37%
41%
45%
Annual Seat Capacity (millions)
70
60
50
Widebody
Narrowbody
40
Regional Jet
Turboprop
30
20
10
0
1998
2004
Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998;
Diio Mi Schedule Data ,full year data for 2004, 2008, 2013, 2015.
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2008
17
2013
2015
Scheduled Seat Capacity
Domestic Canada
Domestic Canada Scheduled Non-Stop Seats
Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages
49%
30%
37%
41%
45%
Annual Seat Capacity (millions)
70
60
50
Widebody
Narrowbody
40
Regional Jet
Turboprop
30
20
Increasing
TP seats
10
0
1998
2004
Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998;
Diio Mi Schedule Data ,full year data for 2004, 2008, 2013, 2015.
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2008
18
2013
2015
Load Factors
Canada: 1980 - 2013
Passenger Load Factor
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1980
1985
1990
Source: Aviation in Canada, Statistics Canada. Transport Canada
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2001
2006
19
2011
2012
2013
Mainline Carrier Load Factors
United States: 2001 – 2014 & 2015-2035 Forecast
90
Historical
Domestic
System
Forecast
International
Load Factor (%)
85
80
75
70
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2015-2035
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
20
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014E
2013
2012
2011E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2001
65
Mainline Carrier Load Factors
United States: 2001 – 2014 & 2015-2035 Forecast
90
Historical
Domestic
System
Forecast
International
Load Factor (%)
85
80
Likely nearing
limit of LF growth
75
70
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2015-2035
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
21
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014E
2013
2012
2011E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2001
65
GA
Total GA Movements
Canada: 1997 - 2013
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 401-0029, 401-0036, and 401-0037.
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
23
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
1997
Itinerant Aircraft Movements (millions)
Total GA and Non-Commercial Aircraft Movements
GA and Air Taxi Aircraft Hours Flown
United States: 2001-2014 & 2015-2035 Forecast
Annual Hours Flown (Millions)
25
Historical
Forecast
Piston Aircraft
Turbine Aircraft
20
15
10
5
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2015-2035
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
24
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014E
2013
2012
2011E
2010
2009
2008
2007
2001
0
Air Cargo
Canadian Air Cargo
•
No accurate data
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
26
Other Stats
Number of Employees
Canadian Commercial Air Carriers: 1980 - 2013
Average Number of Employees
Employees (Thousands)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980 1985 1990
Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada
2006-2013- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian
Aviation
by Numbers
the Numbers
March
2015
Canadian
Aviation
by the
– DRAFT
of 19
March 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
28
Global Aircraft Deliveries
Boeing & Airbus
Total Annual Aircraft Deliveries
750
700
Aircraft Deliveries
650
600
550
Airbus
500
Boeing
450
400
350
300
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Boeing and Airbus Delivery Reports
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
29
Global Aircraft Deliveries
Bombardier & Embraer
240
Total Annual Commercial Deliveries
220
Commercial Deliveries
200
180
160
Embraer
140
Bombardier
120
100
80
60
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bombardier and Embraer Delivery Reports and Press Releases
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
30
Global Aircraft on Order, by Delivery Date
Airbus, Boeing, Embraer
Total Aircrafts on Order
1,600
New orders will
increase future
deliveries
1,400
1,200
Aircraft
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2015
2016
Source: Diio Mi Fleet Current Summary
Note: Estimates of orders as of January 6, 2015
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2017
2018
31
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Regional Aircraft Developments
Phase out of small aircraft
•
•
•
33-55 seat turboprops are ageing
•
Bombardier Dash-8/100 (35 seats): 26 year average age
•
Dash-8/300 (55 seats): 18 years
•
ATR-42: 20 years
Regional jets also ageing
•
CRJ-200: 15 years
•
ERJ-135: 14 years
•
ERJ-145: 14 years
Economics of 55 seat RJ problematic with high fuel price
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
32
Regional Aircraft Developments
Phase out of small aircraft
•
•
Within 3 – 10 years:
•
Turboprop Aircraft will reach maximum cycles
•
Cost of rebuild has marginal economic benefit
Bombardier has no 35-55 seat aircraft in production
•
•
ATR has ATR-42/500/600 in production
•
•
CRJ 55 seat not in production
But orders are small
Carrier “solutions”:
•
Phase out 33-55 seat aircraft
•
Buy low cycle used aircraft
•
Rebuild to extend life
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
33
Regional Aircraft Developments
Phase out of small aircraft
Air Canada
•
Addition of further (23) Q400 aircraft
•
AC plans to refurbish 19 Dash 8-300 aircraft,
but Dash 8-100 aircraft not part of this program
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
34
Developments in Airline Strategy
Re-banking
•
Airlines un-banked many hubs in the early 2000s
to cut costs
•
But many airlines have started to re-bank
•
•
American Airlines began re-banking its hubs
at Dallas/Ft. Worth, Miami and Chicago O’Hare last year
•
United Airlines has re-banked its Denver and Houston hubs
and will begin re-banking its Chicago O`Hare hub this month
Though more expensive,
banked schedules allow for shortened connection times
as well as improved directional flows
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
35
Financial
Canadian Air Carrier
Revenue and Expenses: 2005 - 2013
Operating Revenues and Expenses
25
$ Billions
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Operating Revenue
Source: Statistics Canada, 51-004-X
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2010
2011
Operating Expenses
37
2012
2013
Canadian Air Carriers
Return on Assets: 1980 - 2013
Return on Assets
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
1980 1985
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada,
1980-1985- Aviation in Canada; 2005-2013, 51-004-X.
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
38
Developments in Airline Strategy
Re-gauging
Example: United Airlines
•
United plans to reduce departures and increase gauge as to
increase revenue and optimize use of existing slots at O’Hare
Departures
Gauge
Capacity
4%
6%
~2%
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
39
Investment
Total Capital Investments
Canadian Airports
Capital Investments by Canadian Airports
From Transfer date to Airport Authority to 2013
5.0
4.5
4.0
$16b
$ Billions
3.5
3.0
$11b since 2004
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Toronto
Montreal Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg
Source: Airport Annual Reports.
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Note: Montreal includes both Trudeau and Mirabel Airports
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
41
Ottawa
Halifax
Rents Paid to Transport Canada
Canadian Airports
Rent Paid to Transport Canada
350
300
$ Millions
250
200
150
100
50
0
2004
2005
2006
Source: Transport Canada Annual Reports and Financial Statements.
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
2007
2008
42
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Air Travellers’ Security Charge & Expenditure
Revenue vs. Operating Expense
700
600
Million $
500
400
300
200
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ATSC rev
Source: CATSA Annual Reports and
Public Accounts of Canada, Annual Financial Review
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
CATSA op exp
43
Aviation Security Since 2003
•
ATSC Revenues:
$5.6b
•
CATSA Op. Expenses:
$5.3b
•
CATSA Investment:
$1.0b
•
First 2 years:
•
•
Revenue
Expenses
$830mn
$410mn ($616mn)
Is aviation security merely a benefit to passengers?
Or is it national security, with benefits to Canada?
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
44
Safety
Accidents
Canadian Commercial Aircraft (1970 – 2013)
Accidents per 100,000 hours flown
Number of Accidents
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Source: 1970-1990 Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada
2001-2013 Statistics Canada, 51-004-X;
Transportation Safety Board of Canada
Note: Most recent data available is 2013
Canadian Aviation by the Numbers March 2015
46
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
0
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